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1st “round” of golf in over a year. Office scramble at New England cc. Wish I could have played more this year but was not in the budget. Sucked bad. Enjoyed the day though.

High clouds kept temps in check today here, with only 84.

Belmars highs are 72 this weekend. Not a beach day.

How about Laconia Country Club?

Friday night ?? Mountain Valley frost possible ...........................

64/42 You can tell the weather is boring as f*ck. The monthly pinned thread hasn't even been changed yet.

LB, I think that TS4 was about a 60 mph storm when it made landfall. The rainfall you asked about (8.28") is the daily record for September (second place being 7.13" Sep 1, 2021) and is also the all-time daily record for any month, but the all-time monthly record at Central Park (despite what it said in the source) is August 2011 with 18.95" -- Oct 2005 had 16.73" April 1983 14.01" and Oct 1903 had 13.31" ... these are the largest daily totals ... 1. Sep 23, 1882 ____ 8.28" 2. Apr 15, 2007 ____ 7.57" 3. Nov 8, 1977 _____ 7.40" 4, Oct 9, 1903 _____ 7.33" 5. Sep 1, 2021 _____ 7.13 6. Aug 14, 2011 ___ 5.81" 7. Nov 8, 1972 _____ 5.60" 8. Sep 21, 1966 ___ 5.54" 9. Sep 29, 2023 __ 5.48" 10. Sep 16, 1999 __ 5.02" 10. Oct 1, 1913 ____ 4.98" 11. Apr 30, 2014 ___4.97" 12. Sep 8, 1934 ___ 4.86" 13t Aug 20, 1873 __ 4.80" 13t Aug 16, 1909 ___4.80" 15. Aug 10, 1990 ___4.64" 16. Aug 21, 2021 ___4.45" 17. Oct 19, 1996 ____4.35" 18. Apr 10, 1983 ___ 4.31" 19t Sep 19, 1894 ___ 4.30" 19t Oct 8, 1903 ____ 4.30" 21. June 26, 1884 __4.29" 22t Oct 8, 2005 ____ 4.26" 22t Oct 12, 2005 ___ 4.26" 24. Mar 25, 1876 ___4.25" 25. Aug 21, 1888 ___4.19" 26t June 7, 2013 ___4.16" 26t Aug 27, 1971 ___ 4.16" 26t Sep 15, 1933 ___ 4.16" 29. Aug 9, 1942 ___ 4.10" 30. Oct 7, 1972 _____ 4.09" 31. Sep 21, 1938 ___ 4.05" This includes all 4"daily amounts, May's record daily in 32nd place was 3.99" on 29th, 1968. Sep 13-14 1944 (3.94 + 3.82) both came close to making the list also.

Eventually we’ll be back?

73 today and its looking like a late August beach weekend. Couldnt buy a decent beach weekend for about the first 6 weeks of the season but here we are now

Frosty tonight out west URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1147 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 MDZ509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-020000- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0008.251002T0600Z-251002T1300Z/ Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1147 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Highland County. In West Virginia, Pendleton, Western Grant, and Western Mineral Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

October commenced with the arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season. After another very cool day tomorrow, temperatures will quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels by the weekend as an air mass that will challenge or break records in parts of the Upper Midwest moves eastward. Tomorrow will be the coolest day. High temperatures will reach only the middle 60s tomorrow. New York City will see the low temperature bottom out in the lower 50s. Outside the City, widespread 40s are likely. A few of the colder locations could see the temperature bottom out in the 30s. A rapid warmup will commence on Friday and a warm weekend lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +13.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.387 today.

CLT is at 81 degrees this hour, the only major observation station in the 80s in the state. GSO and RDU are at 73. It seems CLT has been consistently warmer than other Piedmont stations for months now. What is going on at CLT?

Two years in a row with the ICON having a coup. Last year it was first to latch onto the pattern that brought Beryl to the upper Texas coast. Thanks for posting. Yeah it wasn’t that I thought Imelda had peaked, it was more that the structure last night couldn’t keep long enough to allow for that level of intensification. The structure today has been substantially better, but not quite there.

Any idea when we might shift to a more autumnal pattern? It's disturbing to see the sea of orange and red on the ensembles right into mid month. Why does this happen every October?

I swear he wasn't trying when he came in and at the beginning of the 9th. Then he suddenly dialed it up to 100-101.

Nobody's all that late yet, will give a shout to RJay and BK, welcome to Ephesians2 also. September scoring is updated and is in last post on page six (as I see it anyway). -- before the October forecasts, also the annual scoring is being updated, I've fallen a bit behind due to a poorly planned day of car work and no internet ... so getting back to it now, as you look in there you'll see some scores updated, some yet to come, all totals are already updated and order changed a little but not a lot.

AND I hope for actual snow in winter. I am a hopeless eternal optimist - or a certified masochist. Why not both, I guess...

September 2025 finished tied as the 7th driest September on record for Chicago. Driest September's 1. 0.01" - 1979 2. 0.26" - 2004 3. 0.31" - 1940 4. 0.32" - 2017 4. 0.32" - 1891 6. 0.46" - 1956 7. 0.49" - 2025 7. 0.49" - 1939 9. 0.74" - 1871 10. 0.77" - 1962

September 2025 finished tied as the 7th driest September on record for Chicago. Driest September's 1. 0.01" - 1979 2. 0.26" - 2004 3. 0.31" - 1940 4. 0.32" - 2017 4. 0.32" - 1891 6. 0.46" - 1956 7. 0.49" - 2025 7. 0.49" - 1939 9. 0.74" - 1871 10. 0.77" - 1962

I think if large numbers of people actually start losing their homes by the ocean, or if we start seeing major negative impacts to agriculture, that will spark action. So far with the warming we've seen that hasn't been the case, and it's one of those things where most people have to see it to believe it.

Some locations were able to sneak in a rare late September 90°+ day on Monday. MDW was one of those locations, with a high of 90° on Monday. I said this a week ago, so we'll see if it sticks this time... We are likely done for the year with 90°+ days, so the below will likely be the final overall tally for the year. ...2025 90°+ Day Tally... 30 - MDW 28 - DPA 28 - PWK 27 - ORD 27 - ARR 22 - LOT 20 - RFD 17 - UGN

Drought conditions: Dramatic images show record low river levels in downtown Grand Rapids

Unfortunately, that appears to be the de facto strategy. The issue isn't one of technology (the technology already exists and is improving), costs (renewable energy is less expensive than fossil fuels), resources for investment (society has proved capable of mobilizing enormous sums of money at rapid speed), or lack of time (the problem has been known for decades allowing for a very gradual transition), but one of a decided and purposeful lack of urgency. A book published last year (Wiegandt 2024) that sketches out, in part, a world that is 3°C warmer than the pre-industrial world (likely scenario by 2100 on the current path), highlights how human societies mobilize when they perceive that there are real, grave, and urgent problems and when they don't. Unfortunately, the issue of climate change falls into the latter example as far as human society is concerned, even noting the dramatic backward developments in the United States. The book's editor wrote: In such a future world, we will have to deal with a radicalization of weather patterns and with temperatures that will be as much as 6 degrees higher on average over land areas. Such a transformation will have grave effects on global agriculture, massively damage global infrastructure, and significantly impair or even destroy large ecosystems... I would like to recall that governments mobilized trillions of U.S. dollars, overnight, as it were, both in 2008 to deal with the world financial crisis and in 2020 in the wake of the rampant Corona pandemic! We must realize that global warming poses an incomparably greater challenge. Given the editor's observation and lack of action today, once irreversible outcomes are realized e.g., from rising sea level, the greatest tragedy won't be the loss of valuable real estate that is reclaimed by a rising ocean and the social and economic dislocations it causes, bad as they might be. The greatest tragedy will be that the problem was fully avoidable had today's generation of political leaders possessed the courage and foresight to act. They could have prevented the outcome. Instead, they chose to subject future generations, including today's youth, to the growing consequences of a warmer world. A return to the mid-Pliocene almost certainly won't bring about a tropical Paradise on Earth.

Starting tonight we are going to get chilly for several nights. Tonight we dip into the upper 40s and by Friday morning some may see the 30s.

my musings were based on 0z/6z gfs and ens guidance rolled forward beyond 10/8.