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The euro at 6Z/144 is much colder at 850 than 00z

If the 0z and 6z runs of the GFS are even remotely accurate to what will happen, it will be an epic run up to Christmas this year! At least we have things to track so quick out of the gate this year! .

You are expecting the flip to happen mid-late January still?

Miller A rse

0.30” here

That is the progression I expect in January.

Start stocking up on groceries now:

i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z

No, I wasn't one who thought Sirianni needed to go after 2-2 last year. Heck, I didn't even lose faith after the Giants game earlier this year. I'd much rather have the losses to Bucs last year and the Giants game earlier this year. At least I can understand that we didn't have it that day. Crap like that happens sometimes. But after this loss to the Cowboys, I've completely lost faith in this team. (The last time I lost total faith in the Eagles was the loss to the Seahawks on that Monday Night in 2023, and I couldn't have been more correct.) You can't lose a game up 21-0, especially when you have a running back as great as Saquon Barkley. The Eagles never blew a 21-0 lead before, not even during the great collapse of 2023. I thought holding onto a 21-0 lead was not asking too much, but if they can't do that, then I need to lower my expectations for this team. The Eagles might beat the Raiders and split with the Commanders to get to 10 wins (and that may still be enough to win the NFC East), but this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs. In short, this Eagles team is soft and undisciplined. Don't expect that to magically change on Friday. The Bears are a tougher team, and will beat us.

Where did you pull those graphics from?

Stunning lenticular cloud yesterday.

Really good recent paper here when considering this stratosphere wave reflection event. I feel like this influence is taking control of things for a bit. And models are trying to resolve this influence. As it does fit in with what we're seeing, and what models are doing. Which, if it is, then begs the question. What takes over once the life cycle runs its course? And when? Since the end dates apparently vary (but are typically ~2 weeks) and aren't very well understood. It's interesting. Probably a future case study. Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/521/2025/

Absolutely this.

This early rain is more of an option. But if it flipped and coated that’s a win.

I suspect this split forcing is the reason for the volatility that we have been seeing in the models for the first 10 days of December. Models struggle with the placement of features when there are multiple areas of forcing. My only guess that I made earlier for December is that we will have a weaker -PNA and colder Canada than last year.

The MJO is but one factor that can either constructively, or deconstructivity interfere with baseline forcing.....what you are implying is akin to saying that I jog 3x weekly, so I know I'm very healthy....come to find out, I also smoke 6 packs a week, inhale MacDonalds 3x daily and have casual unprotected sex with one-legged prostitutes on a nightly basis.

I thought the 6z EURO and 6z AIFS made steps to meet each other in the middle (what we want). Would’ve loved to see a few more frames of the 6z EURO.

I don't care how much crap can be dug up from AI, the strat stuff is pretty useless.

Overnight modeling definitely interesting.

It will be interesting to see whether this split forcing, if it happens, is a continuation of the VP standing wave over the MC, or is a second wave propagating eastward from MJO 6>7>8>1. There is agreement that the first (current) wave is going to propagate into 8 and 1 in the coming days (according to both GEFS and EPS hovmoller charts), which makes sense as we're already tracking some wintry threats on the way next week. (and when I say wintry threats, I'm not saying it's going to snow imby, just talking generally over a broad area in the E and NE)

EPS looks pretty decent for a week out. I like seeing those gulf lows a bit offshore at this point. We know how those can trend.

EPIC run of GFS...one storm next week and at fantasy range....

It’s becoming more and more obvious where this is heading, despite the run to run changes on the long range ensembles….the stratospheric warming/wave reflection event happens then the SPV reconsolidates and strengthens quickly going into mid-late December. You, @so_whats_happening @donsutherland1 and @bluewave did a very good job explaining the expected MJO progression. Once we get towards mid-December, it is looking very likely that the Alaskan ridge regime retrogrades to an Aleutian ridge regime, the EPO goes +, a healthy -PNA pops and the SE ridge pumps

Yeah could be old school pond skating by 12/15 if some of these runs are correct.

Most here wouldn’t love that but wouldn’t mind if they got 20” next week.