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700mb reaches close t0 +4 near DCA at 81 fwiw

spoke too soon... did save 3 hours of snow though

It is NAM with 2.5 days before onset…

I think we get less than an inch of precip here.

Was out in Colorado 1/8-1/15, got blessed with 10” of powder on day 1, but it’s historically bad out there. Definitely the worst season on record. People throw out 76/77 but they didn’t have snowmaking to supplement things back then. Fire season will be lit. (Pun intended)

Sleet is up to about Bethel Park at 81, then we dry slot.

All lousy events out here so I hope Not .

For it being the Nam it’s not bad lol. 5” on the Nam may as well be 10” on the legit models

Not sure how to fix it, more education I guess. Getting people to understand the difference between possible and probable.

Warm layers can 100% race north quickly, though I'm still not gonna worry about NAM ptype until tomorrow at 06z at earliest

Don't trust the NAM precip fields out that far.

The short range says this isnt a catastrophic ice storm. Keep trending west and we dry slot

I think it look very similar to the 6z. Only difference i can see through hr 69 is the HP over new england is suprressing the precip shild slightly. At the 500 level, the southern energy seems to be a little more outfront of the kicker from the north. This should cause more amplification, but it doesn't appear to be when you look at the reflectivity maps

How that little shift south on the NAM saved my ass from sleet by 10 miles...

It wouldn’t be a legit winter storm if we didn’t have a NAMing.

It was looking stringy and unorganized at first, but it’s getting its act together by hour 72. The end result will be good.

NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great

Nam being the Nam my guess that light zone is actually snow. You don’t have a light precip zone in middle of the heavies

Wow, ya still in Gardner. I guess I did miss a few of these nuisance snows. lol. They do add up. Tack on another 1.5" today. Overall it's been a decent winter here in N. ORH county.

In all, there are 307 days on which the current record high is unmatched, 59 days in which the record high was set in at least 2 years, 11 days in which the record high was set in at least 3 years, and 2 days in which the record high was set in 4 years.

Where's the "wtf?" reaction?

Still plows that primary into the ov and slower to redevelop off coast this run. Alot of balancing out of features that yield a very similar result at the surface. Alas, its the nam at range.

Nam looks more consolidated at 500 through hr 72. That’s gonna be a thump as modeled.