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If the gfs is correct we could be having snow and ice while Kansas City is pushing 80. Blocking does such cool stuff. I hope it's real!

Still great to see this upcoming period continuing to hold potential. The late weekend period has my eye

27 / 14 sunny. Progressing to an overall near / below normal once passed the warmup Christmas (Eve/Day) 12/24 - 12/26. Friday into Sat slop / flop or snow to rain. Warmth to the south / west and cold pushing down into the northeast. Next storm threat, beyond Friday/Sat is for the 30/31. Beyond there - near normal.

Bottomed out at 20 here. .

GFS is so far south it’s a miss.

21 here much colder than I expected

Scooter McGavin?

Fire Harbaugh to the sun, doo dah doo dah, fire Harbaugh to the sun, oh the doo dah day

Gefs have not been great with snowfall this year, and downright lousy at 96+ hrs. This threat may not workout for this forum, but that remains an accurate critique of the Gefs snowfall predictions this year.

Gfs is trying to clip eastern ma with the Norlun, similar to last storm

13 this morning.

Where's your red tag?

Yeah, wild swings based on the placement and evolution.

I’d love to lock in the 6z icon for Friday night. That would rip

plenty of posts from northern New England at 12z yesterday congrats and high-fives over Friday/saturday storm. To be fair to everyone here, it is a holiday week, and the event has shifted so far south in rapid order that some runs are now whiffs. If that press continues to come in stronger it will be congrats Mid Atlantic. However, isn’t the old saying these bump north in the final 48?

It was not

I know it’s all fantasy but I think the 6z GFS was about to give us a new years present if it had run about an extra 36 hours.

If the cold air mass for Dec 28-Jan 1 verifies, ensembles across the board missed that cold air mass outside of day 7. To me it looks like another one is right after that(roughly Jan 6-7). As John noted, the late December cold snap looks like a dry frontal passage. I would guess higher elevations probably see some upslope if the CMC is correct. It would make sense that the atmosphere would wring out some moisture. One thing in weather, we are rarely going to get perfect placement of every feature on the map. What we want is the feature(which is in our favor) to be the driver. Outside of climatology Jan10-Feb10, it really doesn't want to snow at lower elevations in the Upper South. The base pattern is rain. So, we generally need a little bit of help outside of that window. As is, the pattern in the weeks 2-4 is likely going to have some cold shots, and some warmups. Timing and intensity of any longterm cold snap when/if it returns is TBD. That is why we are tracking what happens after the cold shot to end this year and begin the new one. My guess...models are handling the NAO poorly (duration, intensity, placement). That has occurred more times than I can count. As LC noted, it makes it difficult for models and forecasters to get a handle on things. That is creating wild swings in modeling. It does make sense that at some point, things line-up just enough to send a lot of cold air into the east at some point during January. But really, that is a pretty easy call - it is our coldest month! LOL.

I wake up every night for a bathroom trip. Keep the Euro loaded on the phone. Quick check then back to sleep.

Negative

It's also into the holiday break period now, too....so folks may not be up at 6am.

Was probably Tbliz lol

WPC issued for 12Z for the 26th

06z GFS

If the trends from 0z & 6z on the Euro & GFS continue today, the forecasts for Friday will be changing rapidly. The 6z GFS has a snowstorm for southern PA & the 6z Euro shows an ice storm chance. The High is in a great spot, so let’s see how the trends go today.