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Of note looks like all the hurricane models took a big shift west as well

The Orioles went an impressive 0/14 with RISP tonight. I am genuinely impressed with that kind of futility. In other news, Ravens looked pretty good with the back ups tonight. Ran 79 plays to Dallas 49. Pretty much dominated for 98% of that contest. Come on September!

11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 20.3°N 65.1°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 937 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Nhc track is to far east now

Noticed a lot of leaves down this evening as we went for a drive. Sad stuff.

Kaboom. No power for 4 hrs.Needed the rain though.

The gauge in my yard was .80” so believable.

Persistent onshore S/SE wind

Hit 94 here today, with max dewpoint of 81. Luckily will get a decent break from high humidity next week.

Highs: PHL: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 87 New Brnswck: 87 EWR: 84 LGA: 84 NYC: 84 ACY: 83 ISP: 82 BLM: 82 JFK: 81

'Heat' lightning pretty frequent in the northern sky here.

Followup to the above 12Z UKMET post regarding the new MDR AOI: I just looked at the last 4 UKMET runs and discovered that the reason the latest run recurves this AOI into Erin is because Erin is further SW due to a further W recurve and thus doesn’t exit until a couple of days later than yesterday’s runs:UKMET progs for 0Z 8/22:1) 0Z 8/15 run at 168 hrs:Erin 954 mb at 38N, 59W after recurve at 70WAOI 1011 mb at 20N, 61W, is 1,250 miles to the S2) 12Z 8/15 run at 156 hrs:Erin 949 mb at 42N, 57W after recurve at 70WAOI 1006 mb at 18N, 62W, is 1,700 miles to the SSW3) 0Z 8/16 run at 144 hrs:Erin 962 mb at 37N, 66W after recurve at 73WAOI 1007 mb at 16N, 59W, is 1,500 miles to the SSE4) 12Z 8/16 run at 132 hrs:Erin 958 mb at 35N, 71W after recurve at 74WAOI 1006 mb at 20N, 57W, is 1,350 miles to the SEmoving NW to the S of retreating H5 ridgeConclusion: It isn’t just about how fast the AOI moves W and develops, but also and possibly more crucially it is about how far W Erin recurves. The further W Erin recurves, the longer it will take for her to exit. The later the exit, the better chance the AOI would have to recurve before reaching the Conus.

I think given today's events, it's prudent to continue to keep an eye on this. It's still too early for either camp to declare victory, imo Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Yes, but most places in the mid-Atlantic/northeast should have followed a similar pattern (especially with temperature).

Watched two outflow boundaries collide just to my south on radar. Nice line of storms developed with, as @Jackstraw described, constant lightning.

Twitter is a cesspool of bots but this is amazing eyewall of Erin footage https://x.com/wxnb_/status/1956827623062962483?s=46&t=8XFCjgbF1qQWLVKslle9tw

Flash Bang lightning out there. 3-5 strikes a minute. Watched from the porch for 90 min as these mini complex's moved SSE. Best light show of the year. They are just now weakening which could mean some left over outflows for initiation tomorrow morning similar to earlier today. Best light show of the year, until its on top of you lol.

That’s not many for Florida, is it?

Is that for Philly?

By us, we usually get leaf drop this time of year. My weeping cherry is usually the first and there is some type of tree leading into our development that always has significant leaf drop. I think the typical dry spells and heat cause it. It is not leaves changing...it the trees shedding to conserve energy and water, as I understand it.

Gfs is even closer now..... Euro ai still very consistent still.

Seems to happen every August that goes dry

Forecast keeps changing for tonight partly cloudy or mostly cloudy?

Islands continuing to get lashed by the outer bands of Erin

We kind of do . May be too far NNE. Maybe nothing close to that scenario happens . Just looking for something that might not be thought of . Hoping for some kind of excitement and expecting Stein and calm