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Last night's 0z GFS had the low temperature in the AM here at 42F. We hit 28F. That is not a small miss, and very little of that was due to radiation cooling since it was already at 32F at 1 AM. So I'm starting to wonder if the GFS is overstating the urban heat effect from Boston for the suburban areas? They are consistently overstating temps whether during the day or evening.

Complete archived loop here!

Yes, so this is a lesson about AI models. They are not infallible and can be off quite a bit. Just I see some putting them up on pedestal and worshiping as to having the final say. And look at what a physics-bases model (ECMWF ENS) did. It even caught the odd motion from terrain influences so common for when a TY approaches Tawain!

Avg annual global ACE is 787. 1000 have been exceed 6 times. Max is 1163 in 1992. 1992 E/CPAC total was 27 NS and they go to the Z storms for the EPAC. But POR is only 1990-present since fully geostationary coverage for the IO was not established until 1989 (the SIO is #2 for avg annual ACE contribution). The previous record ACE for the EPAC 2018 and 1992, those were only weak El Nino years, so the very strong El Nino is not a prerequiste.

looks like the growing season for the urban areas along I-95 should continue well into November at this point.

There is no reason why a subtropical storm cannot have min hurricane force winds. I've seen 60 kt ST storms, so does something happen at 65 kt that suddenly makes it more tropical? The atmosphere does not work on such sharply defined small changes. Winds in an STS are dependent on many factors, like how fast it moving, how high the SSTs are (for better mixing), environmental pressure gradient around the storm, and how strong the ET low was initially for max sustained winds, which can be all over the place from far from the center to a continuous 65 kt + max right to near the center. ET storms can have winds as high as 105 kt sustained, so when it deeply occludes and winds come down, they can still be 65 kt when they go ST. I think NHC wants to avoid the confusion of a "subtropical hurricane" b/c of the of the media. Well. you have subtropical storm, so the next terminology step? But ET/PT lows have HU-force winds often, so what is that problem here? And storm #1 in 1979 was 65 kt. There is another case that had even strong winds as ST from those days I cannot recall it though. Either way, this should be irrelevant. A storm is what it is. You can't force it to be something it is not b/c it is not nice and neat from a public knowledge standpoint or does not fit into current policy! That Jan 2023 system off the mid Atlantic that was completely ignored operationally by NHC when it clearly was a hurricane. They included that as a 60 kt STS post-analysis, but Dvorak got to 4.5 (77 kt). and the ring of convection was remarkably solid and cold for a Jan atmosphere. Plus it was over 21-23 C water and a clear warm core. So given less than ideal mixing from lower SSTs, 65 kt is completely reasonable. When it passed Sable Island just to the W, they recorded sustained winds of 49 kt, and this was over much cooler SSTs (6-7 C), so easily 65 kt much further S over the Gulf Stream! See loop here. What would you call this thing??? (5) Deelan Jariwala on X: "I decided to make a loop of the unnamed system because I figured that with the late ATCF designation, there isn't much imagery from the usual sources (NRL, RAMMB, FNMOC, etc). This video runs from 00z on the 15th through 20z on the 17th. https://t.co/28L0zZlwhG" / X (5) Tomer Burg on X: "Among notable factors that helped Invest 90L form its very unusual structure for this time of year are its track almost perfectly following the Gulf Stream - which at ~21-23C is warmer than average - and low tropospheric stability beneath an upper-level trough. https://t.co/P2LKNihn7v" / X

Saw this posted on another form and also all over social media but we will see about this .

From a weather enthusiast perspective this has been an extremely boring month of weather, but this has been an exceptional stretch of weather to be sure.

Looks like 1982-83 to me...totally reasonable.

Volcano is a non-factor...it was NBD.

This is a very strange 500mb trough/ridge/trough combination. There are high 500mb heights in the Northeast tonight, but temperatures will drop towards freezing in that region.

Not sure what the NWS standard is, but if n.5°, I round to the even number, otherwise up or down. But I'll often record a comment, such as min 32.5°. My sensor is pretty close, but within .1°F might be a tad optimistic. Autumns are a tad subtropical here due to the closeness of the LI Sound. This morning's low was 36° (36.5°). Some interior parts of Suffolk were in the mid to upper 20s.

Another beautiful day here. Low of 54, high 73. Been able to get a lot done in my yard these past few days. Bone dry though.

I have a Tacoma with 327K, still going strong. My 18-year-old son is driving a 07 Corolla. Our main family van is newer, but I have no shame in using older vehicles as well. I have 2 young drivers 17 and 18 years old on my insurance policy which is very expensive.

You meant AT DCA, right?

Why not buy a new chainsaw?

I had two Honda Pilots make it 200K+ with the usual maintenance. A 2002 and 2013. Got them used and they lasted a long time at various points in my life, but both succumbed to rusted frames by 240K miles.

New England is hard on vehicles, living on the ocean makes it even worse, you can see the rust on the underside of the 97 Accord, my 02 Ranger (86K miles) is rusting too; and that is the next auto project, for next year the internet has lots of good things to say about applying a spray-on undercarriage protectorant like Fluidfilm; I'm going to treat the vehicles before winter. I was a bit heartbroken to see how much rust the antique honda actually had when I started working on it. had I known is was as bad as it was, I would have gone after it much sooner than I did

I would consider that a success.

Why not buy a private jet?