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El Nino starting to rage and the MJO moving into 7-8-1 spells SE Ridge flexing it's muscles early.

Right.

It would't be.

Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative..

If you have ever taken the time to read through my stuff, you wouldn't be asking that question. The shear anomaly of an occurrence of that magnitude renders it unlikely, regardless.

If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3

See, I think this is where YOU are being too literal....replay that season 100x, and I'd be willing to bet Baltimore doesn't get consecutive 3' events. This is like saying that some NAO blocking in 2015 would have gotten Boston 120" in month instead of 100". I think that is far too reductive and Linear a thought process.

Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right?

I think this is where putting down the calculator and being more pragmatic has some utility.

If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, it's just bigger same.

I highly doubt the warmth would have remained that related to the west had it grown that potent. I think going high on snowfall is ridiculous....that was such an anomalous outcome.

I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions.

If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes.

A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower.

I'd take 82-83 or 23-24 over 2009-2010 any day. I get what you are saying, though...it was flukey that it was that bad here...blocking was so extreme.

Well, it sucked as it was where I am...so not a big leap. Do I think DC would have still had 75" or whatever? No, I don't.

Today turned out amazing, though I will say it's pretty impressive how we can go from Colorado dewpoints to sort of humid in one day. We're pretty good at that...along with clouds and wind.

That's ok. The west needs a real winter more than we do.

Why can't we do normal during that 3 weeks from late Jan to mid Feb? lol. I gained like 10lbs during that time period. Slowly shedding...though disregard the tacos I'm currently eating.

If morning convection is mostly elevated and north of I-96 there will be more pristine soundings. A squall line coming through from the west too early in the day is also a problem.

Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter?

Oh in that case, I'd love to relive it and spike my nerf football.

Right.

No, not far, but not ideal....and couldn't catch a break.

Hoping the cap holds tonight so we can get a better TOR threat tomorrow, SPC and IWX are thinking sig tors are possible if there's not a ton of morning crapvection