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  2. Hank Scorpio
    This site is a great resource for historical tornado tracks by state: https://data.newsleader.com/tornado-archive/maryland/ I've spent way too much time on that site. Obviously a low sample size, but it does seem like a lot of the longer track tornadoes in that area are more west -> east based.
  3. Itstrainingtime
    Was that during the Dick Trickle era?
  4. weatherwiz
    ughhh Albany's radar is down. Can't find any status messages either.
  5. bluewave
    Whenever we start seeing those deep troughs out West big wam ups usually follow. But sometimes it can take time when there is a persistent upper low east of New England. So at least in the initial phases of the pattern there could be more of an onshore flow pattern especially east of NYC. If that low gets out of the way completely day 11-15, then it’s off to the races especially when the source region has been setting record after record in recent months.
  6. Powerball
    The blame game aside, this is just a reminder that people should not take severe t'storm predictions lightly, as the environment will be conducive to rapidly evolving conditions at a mesoscale level that even Meteorologists may not always be able to proactively warn the public about.
  7. weatherwiz
    Should get a few storms to chase today! Kind of intrigued by Sunday, though timing looks meh
  8. CoastalWx
    It's going to need to be quite cold if the GFS is right!
  9. dendrite
    Beer
  10. JetsPens87
    I keep coming back to the difference being this time the strong trough in the W. I think that makes all the difference this time of year allowing the SW flow to be the predominant mechanism. Also keep in mind the AN SST off the E coast will play a factor as well.
  11. wokeupthisam
    Was in Vegas July 5-11 in 2021. Couldn't be outside in the sun for more than a minute or two, skin felt as if it were touching a hot stove except there was no way to pull away, while in the shade it just felt like standing too close to a fire. Temp went over 114 multiple days, highest was 117 I think. Even the locals were complaining, just brutal.
  12. Jns2183
    Stick with the balkins. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
  13. ChescoWx
    With the frontal passage last night and a couple more over the next few days we should see a great stretch of dry and comfortable weather. The only real chance of rain over the next week looks to be late in the day on Sunday. Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Phoenixville (1925) and 97 degrees at Coatesville in 1899 / Low 37 degrees at Phoenixville (1945) / Rain 4.19" KMQS Coatesville Airport (2013)
  14. ChescoWx
    With the frontal passage last night and a couple more over the next few days we should see a great stretch of dry and comfortable weather. The only real chance of rain over the next week looks to be late in the day on Sunday. Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Phoenixville (1925) and 97 degrees at Coatesville in 1899 / Low 37 degrees at Phoenixville (1945) / Rain 4.19" KMQS Coatesville Airport (2013)
  15. Brian D
    After a cool, cloudy day yesterday with gusty NW winds, and some scattered shwrs, should be a nice day around 70 on a dry W/NW wind. A chance of rain around sunrise tomorrow am, then scattered stuff in the aftrn possible.
  16. donsutherland1
    Dr. Stefan Ramstorf's recent lecture on the AMOC. He has researched the AMOC for more than 30 years and been published widely in the scientific literature. https://x.com/rahmstorf/status/1799048979004678651
  17. Brian D
    A shit ton of buffalo chips keeping the prairie grasses nice, and robust. Herds of millions roaming the NA grasslands. What a sight that would have been.
  18. NorthHillsWx
    I feel like this summers going to turn me into the new Shetley. We’ve been on the outside looking in from every rain event and are probably running about a foot and a half below what folks in triad and upstate have this year
  19. bluewave
    Yes, I have also noticed that the OP Euro can be too amped with closed lows at times near the Northeast coast day 6-10. But I have also seen the ensembles smoothing out the heights at times too much and can miss closed low positions. The ensembles seem to do better when there isn’t a closed low to deal with. The OP GFS and CMC also have a closed low exiting around the same time period but are a little further east than the Euro. So the further east this feature gets the quicker and higher temperatures we will experience. I only bring this up since it has been such a persistent feature since late March. Even a small influence from a low to our east could result in more onshore flow especially east of NYC. This is just the day 6-10 period. So it’s possible the 11-15 means eventually allow the ridge to expand enough into our region for the first major 95°+ heat of the season. I would just like to see the upper low to our east actually get far enough away for a deep SW flow to develop which is possible if the low kicks far enough east.
  20. Atomixwx
    Nobody is catching you if you can take close to three weeks off and still have the field lapped. For any on here that are into auto racing, this competition is the single largest ass-kicking since the 1985 Daytona 500 where Bill Elliott lapped the entire field.
  21. Today
  22. Kmlwx
    The other explanation is that it's just chance occurrences...the front was probably the main driver during this event. La Plata is definitely the river wind enhancement as storms cross from the Quantico area to the Maryland side. The river is a lot less wide up in western MoCo...but I'm sure there's still some microscale stuff that could be just enough for added helicity or something. I mean hell...270 is so busy that we can't even discount the actual highways adding heat to impact smaller scale wind direction and stuff. MoCo is kind of cool in that we have the Potomac on one border, huge interstate through the center, and then the Patuxent and big reservoirs on the northern border. All sorts of little interactions that might be a factor.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Yea that June 2013 event was my first damage assessment. I've always leaned towards the mini tornado alley along the Frederick/Montgomery County line. Perhaps it's Parr's Ridge, or something else, but hopefully these mesonet stations will help diagnose this in the future.
  24. Kmlwx
    @Eskimo Joe - I think maybe it was a bit north of the one I'm going to reference - but I seem to remember that 2013 long track MoCo tornado taking a very similar path to the one the other day. I know my mom worked at Stonegate ES at the time and it went right through there. We've always mentioned the little "tornado alleys" locally. Obviously a sample size of 2 is not nearly enough - but might be inclined to add the MoCo corridor running from Poolesville east along roughly the ICC and then cutting up towards Columbia as a mini alley. The La Plata one is the most famous - definitely the river wind component. I think people have mentioned one up closer to Frederick as well?
  25. forkyfork
    maybe an amped bias everywhere
  26. uofmiami
    Trough bias went from SW of country to NW Atlantic now? Haha
  27. FPizz
    Very accurate.
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