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  2. Not even noon yet, and it's already 97. Today gonna be bad
  3. Yeah, it is bad, but it is not as awful as 7-8am. I'm down to 191. Hopefully any additional pulses won't equal this morning's mess.
  4. Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen. Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability
  5. The CFS AAM at this site FINALLY updated for the 1st time in 2 weeks! Prior run from July 3rd: New one from today: +2 now but progged on 7/25 to drop to +1 vs the ~+2.2 mean on old run; progged mean doesn’t rise back to +2 til Aug 4th. Old run mean for Aug 4th was way up >+3. All of this is added evidence of a significant + bias out >2 weeks. Regardless, +AAM in full control, which is continued evidence of an intact steadily strengthening Nino:
  6. That’s expected improvement up there but, it’s not going to leave our area till Saturday morning.
  7. It'll be interesting to see if HRRR and NAM3km are correct about our area getting hit hard during the morning. I would think afternoon/evening is more likely, but we shall see.
  8. I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right.
  9. Smoke will continue to be a problem through tonight. We should be several degrees cooler than yesterday with what looks like to me no temps near 90 degrees for at least the next couple of weeks. Tomorrow will be warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms across the area. We turn much cooler by Sunday with highs in the upper 70's to near 80. Nighttime lows by Monday morning will be in the 50's across many of our lower valley locations. Temperatures through the next week look to remain below normal through what is on average our hottest week of the year.
  10. Smoke will continue to be a problem through tonight. We should be several degrees cooler than yesterday with what looks like to me no temps near 90 degrees for at least the next couple of weeks. Tomorrow will be warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms across the area. We turn much cooler by Sunday with highs in the upper 70's to near 80. Nighttime lows by Monday morning will be in the 50's across many of our lower valley locations. Temperatures through the next week look to remain below normal through what is on average our hottest week of the year.
  11. Looks like we get another round later today in the afternoon from our NW.
  12. It does seem to be improving modestly, particularly to our NE. DCA vis back up to 2.5mi - PHL is 6mi and the NYC area is no longer reporting "smoke".
  13. Found a link with visible band optical depth. UMBC at ~2.5 and the Maryland science center at ~3. Those are pretty ridiculous.
  14. Yeah time is probably going to be one of the biggest factors here. If it can remain over the Gulf and head west, rather than getting caught up quickly and turned into FL, it should have a window for genesis.
  15. Will the tropical system off the west coast of Florida manage to organize despite moderate northerly wind shear over the next few days? It's expected to spend three to five days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which suggests we shouldn't count this system out. While a weaker system is the most likely scenario, there is the potential for a stronger system if it continues moving west under strong central/southeast US ridging and doesn't turn quickly northward toward Florida. https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tricky-forecast-for-gulf-of-mexico
  16. Got a little area of convection off the FL coast. Could become the seedling for our weekend low.
  17. Does a N95 even help with smoke? I've definitely exhaled smoke into a N95 and it came right out. I've got to wear a mask anyway because of the job im doing. Just curious. Remember the virus debit in 2020? Lol
  18. There it is. Yuck. "Very unhealthy for the general population"
  19. Entire basin looks pretty favorable for development into August. Makes sense with the Hadley cell out in the central pacific. While I think the Eastern Pacific has the highest chance of above normal ACE due to the +PMM you mentioned, I think the basin as a whole has a chance to be above normal in all 3 regions.
  20. Yeah I don’t think it’ll be as bad as forecast today
  21. I think this would be a good call but I’m doubting it happens. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I need to work my real job Saturday morning so I’ll be spared the smoke.
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