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What in the sam hell am I trying to interpret here

Another top 5 day out there today

I am not against, nor a fan of Judah Cohen's contributions ... I realize there's been some banter in here that's ranged from flattery to ... not so flattering opinions of the guy - I'm not part of that one way or the other. Having defined that ... I don't have a problem at all with his surmise/intimation there that it bears some semblance to last winter. I said almost exactly that to Brian in a post yesterday or the day before. Whether it ends up "comfortable" like he suggests is different combinations of metric than just temp though. He needs to be careful there ... or at least, the readers/consumers need to be aware. If it ends up normal temperatures ... that doesn't automatically intimate lower DPs to me. Not at this time of year - nor particularly to what the general synoptic trends look like out there. Particularly, if the transient trough in the Lakes starts to retrograde like the 00z ens clusters all agreed it would do... that means it is challenged to really make it COC -like. It would be more vaginal I guess... heh ( puerile humor ). It's a new-ish signal but the neg anomalies associated move back toward the S/W continent just beyond next week. For a real air cleansing... the trough needs to go the other way ... opening up and progressing E.

Pleezy weezy with sugar on top let's see that happen. ha

Comfortable is good.

Wish we could get one of the universities to run it...at least the 3k. But it would be a bad look for NCEP if everyone started flocking to Ewall or SUNY to see every NAM run while Rufus has more tumbleweeds than views. I think they've made their bed and they'll have to lie in it either way. At least they were smart enough to wait until the end of met summer/severe wx season before ending it. I wish more free models sites had the RRFS data. I like COD and Tidbits for quick and easy viewing. I get a little lost on what I'm clicking at Pivotal sometimes.

Early data in for May. Cooler one this year, but a warmer Spring overall. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

I love when climate zealots simply eliminate stations they deem absurd....LOL!

I mean aren’t mid latitude ridges expanding due to global warming regardless? The SE ridge is also getting stronger and more expansive despite La Nina’s being weaker on the absolute ONI scale…so I do not know if this is exclusive to RONI vs ONI.

I agree with most of what you just said. But I have a partial disagreement with you on what constitutes a sensible mid latitude response. The response has two components. The first is the strength of the 500mb ridge across Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS. During the 2023-2024 super El Niño this ridge was more expansive than the 1997-1998 super El Niño pressing further south toward the mid-Atlantic and enhancing the warmth. So this wasn’t reflected in the RONI only peaking at 1.5. But the RONI was more representative of the weaker Aleutian low and Mid-Atlantic to Southeast low. We can also see the RONI inconsistency with the 2015-2016 super El Niño in another way. While it was better matched with the ONI than 2023-2024, the Aleutian low was still much weaker than 1997-1998. Plus the rainfall response was much less in places like CA along with more of a ridge in the Eastern CONUS than past super El Niños.

51 in Muttontown & 54 in Syosset this morning.

Down to 54. Surprised we didn’t drop more

Temperatures today will be close to average for the date with highs well into the 70's to near 80 degrees. We start a warming trend tomorrow with the peak hot day being on Friday which is the only day that higher elevations have a shot a 90 degrees. Most valley spots should reach the 90's Thursday and Friday including higher humidity. While we will cool by a few degrees over the weekend it will remain hot until Monday when temperatures will fall back toward the middle 80's. We have shower chances tomorrow morning and again both Thursday and Friday afternoon.

Temperatures today will be close to average for the date with highs well into the 70's to near 80 degrees. We start a warming trend tomorrow with the peak hot day being on Friday which is the only day that higher elevations have a shot a 90 degrees. Most valley spots should reach the 90's Thursday and Friday including higher humidity. While we will cool by a few degrees over the weekend it will remain hot until Monday when temperatures will fall back toward the middle 80's. We have shower chances tomorrow morning and again both Thursday and Friday afternoon.

I realize the NAM is a dead dog model ... ...are they going to continue running it in parallel for awhile after the fact? Is there going to be gridded data sources from whatever meso madness they're going to, similar to FOUS? May be a Q/A for NWS personnel ... if there's anyone still actually working at NWS since we've gon' and made 'merica all great and all

Starting tonight into tomorrow for my area.

that would be cool

Ji's already looking at 2027-2028.

Southern Maryland and lower Delmarva have been quite moisture starved for some time. I was coming back from a conference in Ocean City the other week and the soybeans were looking quite ragged. Even the corn was struggling.

There’s different uses for both. If you’re comparing the Nino 3.4 to historical rankings or you want to see how much heat is being released into the atmosphere then yes, the absolute ONI should be used. But if you’re trying to measure a sensible mid latitude response then you would use RONI.

Let's get ready to Derecho

0.13" of rain yesterday with temps in the 50's with a Lake wind. Foggy morning. When that burns off, temps should be in the 70's today. 80's with higher dews inland are warranting a heat adv across NC & EC MN into N WI. Big stms out that way today. Tonight into tomorrow it will be my turn hopefully.

It’s a bit like relying on temperature departures rather than absolute rankings in a warming climate. But the global temperatures will respond to the absolute Nino 3.4 SSTs rather than the departures which update to reflect the warming baseline each decade. The value of RONI is probably more for La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool has been defining La Nina’s more than the Nino region cold pool of the past. But the absolute strength of La Niña measured through Nino 3.4 SSTs has been shrinking since we haven’t had a strong La Niña by actual SSTs since 2010-2011.

yeah, there's definitely a kind of neg-head bias about signaling NE of the Maxon Dixie. Because we don't get 55 K foot tropopause stabbing nuclear updrafts with stove pipes carving canyons underneath, 'they're not worthy ...' Kidding... but there's something like a wait-and-see thing up here? I've seen more upgrades than planned scenarios - it's almost like that's their policy.

June 9 2002: Extensive flash flood begins across northwest Minnesota. 14.55 inches would fall over the next 48 hours near Lake of the Woods. Floodwaters cover the city of Roseau. The Roseau River looked like a large lake from a satellite view. For Tuesday, June 9, 2026 1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 9 Tue National Mitchell Day 9 Tue National Strawberry Rhubarb Pie Day 9 Tue National Donald Duck Day 9 Tue National Call Your Doctor Day 9 Tue International Dark 'n Stormy® Day 9 Tue National Krewe of Tucks Day 9 Tue National Meal Prep Day 9 Tue National No Apologies Period Day