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  2. canderson
    39 and pouring rain approaching Juneau.
  3. weatherwiz
    I think we'll see widespread storms...should see a solid line evolve ahead of the front. Only question is whether damaging wind gust potential is rather isolated or more scattered
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO.
  5. CT Valley Snowman
    90 yesterday. Currently 85. Let's see if we can pull off another one here this afternoon. Tuesday is a lock and Wednesday looks promising for 90 here. A 4 day May heatwave would be sweet. Hoping for a nice banger on Wednesday and then Stein gets his webbed hands into this weekend. Can't see how anyone would route for cool/wet on MDW, including ACATT.
  6. Chicago916
    If Chicago ever fixes housing affordability I'll be back sooner than later
  7. Damage In Tolland
    Fish says .. Nah
  8. roardog
    So we have a model temperature forecast for 7 months into the future and it's against an 1880-1920 mean. lol
  9. A-L-E-K
    sad to lose a local, glad you're staying in the sub
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    AO and NAO are usually about 0.85 correlated, but they are running apart this year: AO is -1.0 for 2026 so far, NAO is +4.4. March AO was +2 though. It has basically exactly neutral correlation April to May, and March to May [1948-2020]. There is a slight -EPO correlation actually March +AO to May- May is a little cooler temp wise in the CONUS after +AO March, which we have seen at least in the 1st half.
  11. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. Does it say anything about the May AO, That’s projected right now to be +AO.
  12. Chicago916
    Some news on my front if anyone cares lol. Moving to Milwaukee next month. I'll be bringing my magnet to pull some Winter Storms and warm fronts further north.
  13. qg_omega
    https://x.com/peakaustria/status/2056315272852648378?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    88 here at 12:20. Not a cloud in the sky
  15. George BM
    IAD up to 91F. 91/65. An @87storms trademark day. Patiently awaiting the next @wxdude64 trademark day.
  16. weatherwiz
    Ninja'd was just commenting on the NAM/mlvl lapse rates. The NAM is definitely pretty intriguing. Would actually see a pretty solid line drift south and it occurrs during peak heating
  17. weatherwiz
    The NAM is actually pretty interesting for Wednesday. Would suggest a threat for scattered damaging wind gusts, particularly south of the Pike. The NAM has a large area of steeper mid-level lapse rates overhead, shunting south during the day (hence south of the Pike favored). Not sure I totally buy this though...the NAM seems to have a tendency for having these areas of steeper lapse rates...but a big player in this is whether the airmass over the OV is convectively overturned tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Shear is pretty decent along with height falls and looks like we get enough heating to drive up the llvl lapse rates
  18. winterwx21
    Well 12z GFS shows what I was talking about. A big soaking Saturday into Saturday night to help with the drought, but it gets it out of the way for Sunday and would be fine for Sunday afternoon cookouts. Hopefully it'll work out that way.
  19. CT Rain
    Wednesday's severe threat looks decent to me. Lapse rates are pretty good (6.5c/km) on the NAM and deep layer effective shear around 40 knots. Should be able to get a decent QLCS with some embedded supercells. I think the GFS is mixing out the boundary layer a bit too much.
  20. pazzo83
    upper 80s at DCA already, temp steadily climbing on a south wind. Ominous for the upcoming summer.
  21. A-L-E-K
    banged p good blessed
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Would be par for the course if we watch most of this go west of apps and around us but at a minimum it looks like a return to at least scattered afternoon storms across NC most days
  23. Chicago916
    Storm means business. Really strong winds and momentarily lost power.
  24. MazooWeather
    looks like you're probs getting 70 mph gusts rn
  25. forkyfork
    can we have a separate thread for winter talk?
  26. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 1+2 was close to 0.0 in 09-10. It was also the #1 most -NAO Winter on record, going back to the mid-1800s. Kind of interesting that we are batting 0-22 on Winter NAO months > +1.11 starting after just 1 year after that.
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