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Td is 43, so I doubt it

Glad I don't live there.

Even if it weakens, the intensity offshore could have huge implications on potential storm surge.

I’m not going to over analyze individual model runs but if it takes a track like the GFS shows that’s really bad for surge at the mouth of the Mississippi, bay St. Louis, biloxi bay, and possibly mobile bay. Landfall intensity is important but if this peaks maybe 6-8 hours before landfall any weakening would not affect surge potential at all. That’s a very bad track in that regard

My low was 41 degrees and my high was 74 today. Beautiful.

Look at all those hot towers Would agree on a C1 landfall being most likely right now. Reaching C3+ over the open ocean beforehand looks very attainable.

Right now is the slowest motion we will see. The westerly steering flow in interaction with the mid-to-upper trough will push the TC towards the east and then begin to turn it poleward. At that point, it should be gaining forward motion into landfall.

47 and dropping like a rock

I think this gets up to a major before it gets closer to the coast. The gulf has so much heat in it... just jet fuel for it. And if it slows down at all?

Hopefully it hits the wall of shear and gets eaten up by dry air which is probably the most likely outcome. But there’s jet fuel in its path before that happens. The SE still needs the rain so a weakening TS with heavy rain would be beneficial.

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity. Looks like minimal cane landfall given just a cursory glance at things...if it looks a bit more compelling tomorrow I may write it up.

Down to 50 and wind about calm. Will be interesting if a good chunk of LI can get their first 30s.

I want to send my condolences to you and your family carvers gap .

Not really...I basically agreed. Lol

Man, it looks really good on satellite right now. It’s got that look…

And the GFS has folded like a house of cards

I strongly disagree.

Isaiass to be

<Beavis-and-Butthead Voice> Heh, heh, heh! @ravensrule said "pro BONO!" Heh, heh, heh </Beavis-and-Butthead Voice>

So sorry to hear that Carver! I’ll be praying for you and your family!

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity.

Dew is 33, gonna be chilly and frosty tonight

Firmly in the cone of uncertainty over here.

Well that has 5 plus days to trend too…so I think the handwriting is on the wall. The tenor is it likes to rain this spring and summer..and now fall.