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Nearly missing an intense heat burst through the center of the CONUS as we watch it get deflected underneath. Not sure I'd celebrate that... not yet anywho - It's likely to go down that way. However, there's still some potential for a warmer correction N-NE; that the models may be too suppressed. The NAO was western limb orient/negative; so, a summer polar more S in Canada made sense while that was taking place. That's in a state of transitioning into a positive mode. Canonical expectation is that the heights should rise and the flow becoming more zonal across SE Canada. It's unclear if the guidance et al are handling that in the 120 range. There could be a tendency here to hang too much suppression over the top of that "heat dome" expression. That looks impressive to me. 582+ hydrostats ( actual water integrated heights) means at minimum there's likely to be some massive DP ballooning S of the stationary boundary where ever that aligns. Right now it's roughly Chicago to NJ somewhere. At 850 mb index finger metric temp is 20+ throughout, so that's likely mid 90 to 100 over 76ers. Yuck. Could be just as impressive as any heat anomaly we've seen in the CONUS this summer, despite being post solar max too. I'll tell you though ... that whole situation ... looks like a breeding ground for MCS traffic. There's QPF modeled around the Lakes ...but as it stands now, if the guidance is right about the overall synoptic structure they're likely to dive before they get this far E. Tuesday morning Quarter Backing

Week 31 of worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line

And crab grass. The cold weather grasses don’t stand a chance on lawns around here. much of seacoast doesn’t know managing landscapes well and boy it shows in this warmer climate

Nice setting there. I know its code but now that you are past all that crap, you should remove that railing on the left side of the steps. Its an eyesore. Much cleaner look without it. Removed mine on both deck stairs years ago when I replaced the steps.

Curious to see what the batch in Ohio does. The north central Indiana complex i feel will definitely slip far to our SW.

Was woke up at 5:10 this morning by one very loud crack of thunder. No lightning and no other thunder. Got .08” of rain.

It has been a storm lover's delight here this morning. Constant thunder and lightning for the past hour and forty-five minutes, with 2.72" during that time and it's still coming down. The northern part of our county got additional storms last evening. I'm guessing that they are well over 4.5" in the past twelve hours.

Still out. Least on the outage map it now says, 'crew dispatched', lol. About 14-15 hours now.

Thunder and lightning for 90 minutes. Picked up .13". Kept going south of me and north of me, again.

I know it. We can't have anything interesting in the lame and boring zone lol. I heard thunder at around 5am. First time hearing thunder this season without severe thunderstorm warning. Funny.. I don’t even pay attention to warnings anymore. They post warnings for every thunderstorm these days.

Disintegrated lol

Looks like a beautiful stretch of weather into the extended. Summer as it should be.

north central indiana stole your goods

Quite a bust locally these last few days

That’s actually a NWS COOP station out in Baiting Hollow which gets included in the weather roundups across the area. It could be the warmest temperature ever recorded on Eastern Long Island. The big story this summer is how much warmer it is than past developing super El Niño summers. Monthly Data for June 2025 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 103 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 103 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 100 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 100 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 100 Data for June 1, 2026 through August 11, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 103 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 102 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY CENTERPORT COOP 101 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Developing super El Niño summers since the 1990s Data for June 1, 2023 through August 31, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 96 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY WEST POINT COOP 95 Data for June 1, 2015 through August 31, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 98 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96 Data for June 1, 1997 through August 31, 1997 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100

Orange sun is the new norm I guess... not yellow.

Low of 67 with .3” of rain and there was another cluster of storms on the doorstep as I left the house. Been a fun month.

Worst night of sleep in a long time from massive lightening and thunder all night-one cell after another but held onto power

Odd, it seemed to have backed west

A little warmer this am both temp and dews, down to 64F

best in the game imo

The models' overnight forecast was awful. There is no big MCS rolling through sw MN and far northern IA. Instead, it's just an area of scattered meh convection farther south in Iowa.