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Still in a severe drought in NYC and parts of LI. As good as the rain’s been we need more. Hopefully some score today and tomorrow since we likely dry back up after.

.35” yesterday.

Nice night to have the windows open and cool the house down. Low of 48 here, cool spot in MQT County was 40 @ Eagle Mine. Warm day in the upper-70's on tap before another round of heat settles in.

Looks like another chance for storms today. It looks like the good stuff stays in the mountains. I'm glad to see some nice weather starting Sunday. I've gotten behind of a couple weather dependent projects.

Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44

Seems like the western ridge rolls over us mid/late next week for a few days of potentially high heat. But probably/hopefully short lived with BN air right after on northerly flow.

The forecast record breaking 600 DM ridge next week in the Upper Midwest is yet another pattern since May that doesn’t fit the typical developing record super El Niño playbook.

Except this summer SNE shares it with you

Had been wondering, lake are big enough that hypothetically if they get warm enough, you might see some pseudo tropical processes briefly at play

Couple days of ne winds with lil bite keeping us in the upper 70s before heat builds back

Can’t believe this is happening again

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0154 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.70 INCHES WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 1.79 INCHES SET IN 1952. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST DAILY PRECIPITATION VALUE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES FOR PHILADELPHIA IN 837 DAYS, WHICH ENDS THE 4TH LONGEST SUCH STREAK ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA PA AREA DATE BACK TO NOVEMBER 1871.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php As described in the data information sheet, the +80N mean temperature index is not a climate data record. Since 2002, the daily mean temperatures are calculated from the operational atmosphere model at ECMWF, and changes in the operational model over time may affect the resulting temperature trends. The effect of this should be considered before making firm conclusions on basis of trends in the +80N climate indices.

You are criticizing an NCEI analysis you don't understand. Settled science no less. Station adjustments have nothing to do with the County Average temperature or the absolute temperature at any station. Instead they are made on an individual station basis to correct non-weather station changes like station moves. Plenty of station moves/changes through the years in Chester County that need to be accounted for.. We've discussed several of the biggest station moves in this thread. NCEI science nailed every single one. You haven't found a single problem with any individual NCEI station adjustment. The results in your table aren't surprising at all. Between 1927 and 1951, the County COOP stations are much warmer than the county average: Phoenixville already in a warm location, ran much hotter than nearby stations on sunny days in that period and also had time of day bias; while, Coatesville and West Chester were both in built up city/town locations. Both stations cooled by roughly 2F when they moved to less built up locations in 1946/1948 (Coatesville) and 1970 (West Chester). The NCEI county average being cooler than the average of these 3 stations is a good thing, exactly what I would expect. Even today the average of Coatesville, West Chester and Phoenixville is warmer today than the county average. Much moreso in 1927-51 when all 3 stations were in warmer locations or ran warmer than today. No the big mistake in your table is your value for the county average. You have Chester County as warm as the Philadelphia airport in some years. That's way off. Not even close.

66 degrees for the low. No rain yesterday The lack of rain in June really hurt us. - 3.36” Lately it is hard to get some decent rain. Either North/South of us, or else the radar dissipates before it gets to us. July we’re down and inch of rain so far for the month,

Finished up with 0.40" yesterday (the heaviest missed me mostly to the south). That brought my July total to 3.81" so far. Topped out at 80 after a 69 low yesterday. Currently 72 (my low so far) with dp 71. As a sidenote, I heard Ray on KYW this morning.

This wasn't a shower moving over. It just exploded. This is the radar at 3:25 and 5 minutes later at 3:30 at my location.

I just got woke up by an absolute gulley washer that popped up directly over my house. It went from a blank radar to a deep red return in one cycle. Don't recall seeing that heavy of a shower develop from nothing in a handful of minutes.

Based on my own look just now at the comparison of anomalies in the 4 Nino regions, I have only 4 clearcut Modoki El Niño events since 1950: 1. 1968-9: Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov………-0.1……+0.1….+0.5…+0.4 Dec………+0.2….+0.4….+0.7….+0.6 Jan………-0.2……+0.5…..+1.0….+0.9 Feb……..-0.8…….+0.3…..+1.1…….+1.1 Mar……..+0.3……+0.2……+0.5.…+0.6 2. 1977-8: not as Modoki as 68-9 Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……….-0.5…..+0.2….+0.5…+0.3 Dec……….-0.6…..+0.3….+0.7….+0.4 Jan……….-0.4…..+0.1…..+0.6…..+0.4 Feb……….-0.4…...0.0……+0.3…..+0.2 Mar……….-1.2……-0.5…..-0.2…..-0.1 3. 2004-5: the most Modoki Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……...+0.7…..+0.6…+0.7….+0.8 Dec……..+0.4……+0.7….+0.7….+0.9 Jan……...0.0……..+0.3…..+0.7….+0.9 Feb……..-0.9…….-0.1…….+0.4…..+0.7 Mar……..-1.5…….-0.1…….+0.5……+0.6 4. 2014-5: 2nd most Modoki Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……….+0.8….+0.8…+0.8…+0.7 Dec………+0.4….+0.7…+0.7….+0.8 Jan………-0.2…..+0.4…+0.5….+0.8 Feb……..-0.5…..+0.1….+0.4….+0.9 Mar…….+0.1…..+0.1….+0.5…..+0.9 So, based on the above, the most Modoki (W based) El Niño events since 1950 were (starting from strongest): 1. 2004-5 2. 2014-5 3. 1968-9 4. 1977-8 Based on this, it appears to me that regarding wintry precip in El Niño seasons, the SE (based on ATL and RDU) seems to do somewhat better with C based (3.4 with clearly the warmest anomalies) than Modoki/W based. If I’m not mistaken, the NE tends to do better with W based (Modoki) over C based. Please correct me if that’s wrong. Interesting! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

I'm not crazy about that ELI ....they state that it does a pretty poor job of identifying Modoki events and it absolutely does....it has 2023 similar to 2009 and 2004. It lost me right there. Two issues...first of all, the 165-170E Modoki range is too restrictive, which is likely why Modoki events are underrepresented in the data set. Secondly, it fails to distinguish the MC forcing of 2023 from Modoki forcing, which makes it no better than VP and OLR. I still like using the RONI for that distinction.

Good chance it is going to be well up in the 90's around here and maybe 100 again at some point later next week

Indeed! Yeah, Chuck, it’s confusing because when I searched for it, I first found the new FB post, dated 7/2/26. At first it looked on the surface like a new record/first time over 100 in Arctic Circle based on the 1st 2 paragraphs. But then the 3rd paragraph said that on June 20, 2020, it hit 38C/100.4F. Then I was curious to see the comments below. The first one incorrectly said that was Antarctica lol. Then the 2nd comment said that it was 6 years ago and was critical of the story being posted now for no good reason other than to confuse.