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sunny and warm in central S.I.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until midnight for NE MD and DE

Even this evening has a lot of questions. While there is general agreement that a cluster of storms drops south through NJ/DE, some of the CAMs have storms building back to the west and catching much of central MD.

Severe Watch Issued

.80” in Greenfield.

TORCH!!

I would be ok if it wasn't hot anymore...thanks

Yup...precisely this. At least for this period, there were some hints the end of last week we could see a bit more flexing of the ridge into our region versus previous instances this summer but that did not happen. It actually looks to happen for Thursday's potential but we get screwed over other ways lol. Its really amazing how when you look at this from a climatological perspective, more often than not, this is exactly what happens and the cutoff is always pretty much the same exact geography. Pretty fascinating from a science perspective

This afternoon turned horrific. After that riveting down pour went thru, temps dropped and now into the 50’s with rain and a breeze. Absolutely awful day .Some kind of a pseudo back door . 1.29”

Paul, I started looking at the difference between the daily nclimgrid and daily raw station data for Chester County and surrounding area for 1951 forward. Daily data for nclimgrid starts at 1951. A sample of that analysis is attached, showing that the difference varies by station. This is interesting. The difference may be amenable to modeling. Cell size for the nclimgrid is about 2 X 2 miles--the red squares are each a cell with a time series. When looking at CAG, we are seeing an average for the county of these squares. Can you provide the station list for your recent analysis?

A discussion we can take over to the main seasonal thread, but I just wanted to state that the record shown by Dr. Klotzbach is definitely in jeopardy. To reiterate the point already made in above posts, given the rate at which Edouard was organizing over a mere 24 hours, I concur that it would have become a hurricane. Formation a bit further southeast over the east-central GOM, and it may have even bombed into a major prior to landfall. Granted, the environmental conditions weren't perfect. Lingering pockets of stable airmass in the mid-levels did appear to interfere with the convective envelope at times, but shear was light, and the immediate surface temperatures prime for rapid deepening once the system mixed that out. Location of genesis and the short window of time were ultimately the most critical factors in Edouard's development.

Only if they can be screamers . With no cold air this winter benchmark Rainers are not wanted . Maybe it’s the season of damaging big screamers

I ended up with an impressive ~8.85” of rain in August.

Detroit had 10 days of 90F, looks like they just touched 90F today for the 11th day of the year.

at least we should get some good coastals as we head into fall with El Niño

87 with a dewpoint of 73 here. Feels like a steambath out there. Hopefully we'll get an exciting t-storm a little later.

I was involved in a caveat from last season…

The thunderstorms that just initiated in northern pennsylvania shot up hail cores in a hurry.

I suggest we rename this part of the country, The Mid StormLantic

Great way to kick off met Fall with mid 90s and 105+ heat indices.

DCA has been to 98. HI there and on many of the mesonet sites around that 105 mark.

I would too. My gut says one will find a small area with just the right conditions and RI at least one time like Joaquin in 2015 but this current super el nino is unprecedented and it's honestly a bit naive to just assume this will behave like previous super el ninos. The distance this super el nino could be at its peak from previous record super el ninos will likely be a bigger temperature difference than all the older record supers are to average el ninos. We really have no playbook to fully understand all the intricate effects this super el nino is having on worldwide weather patterns overall at a deeper level. Nino's at this strength could make everything behave differently enough than the ones we're used to. That's why I'm slightly annoyed seeing so many people trying to forecast the upcoming winter fully confident this will play out just like other super el ninos we've had. There is nothing we can look back at for the one we're experiencing right now if it reaches its predicted peak lmao. It will be fascinating to see how differently or not it effects this hurricane season overall though. It's possible these hyper el ninos don't play any differently than previous supers but we'll see in a few years if they do or not.

Texas point topped out at 50 kts sustained with gusts to just below hurricane force, 62 kts (71 mph). This storm was likely 1-2 hours away from hurricane intensity based on the rapid organization at landfall

Even today, look at the models. Whether it's 850 Td or theta-e...just gets cut off near NYC. That is one thing I have noticed.