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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016 -
Yep, was looking forward to one more. Radar has RAPIDLY improved on north side too. Me thinks RI might be occurring. Crazy cool processes to watch on radar. For the talk earlier of no defined core, IR and radar both show it quickly blossoming. Lightning in southern quad is a definitive sign of strengthening too. Lets see how quickly it ramps up
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Also related but only partially - and apologies if already posted. Saint Louis University is sunsetting their meteorology program and discontinuing CIPS on their site. But Mizzou has agreed to start hosting it - the new link to CIPS is here --> https://analog.missouri.edu/
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
That's part of the reason I suggested that the precise role of climate change remains to be determined. Given the body of literature, there was likely a role. The least likely scenario is none. Further study will be needed to gain a better understanding. Even if there is a flash attribution study, the full picture probably won't be available for several years until research findings are published. -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
CT Valley Snowman replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
.75 nice drink so far. -
Recon just lifted to flight-home altitude, so it appears there won't be another pass.
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This next pass could see some very significant intensification if these rapid increases in radar velocities are sustained and sampled
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backdoor front will be S and W of most of the area tomorrow-stable airmass in place
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It's not handling the Pacific well at all.
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I drove past his place yesterday. Surprised to see hills.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year? -
Some 60 kt velocities now showing up from LCH, recon finally found 50+ kt FL winds. Probably a 45 kt storm now, still strengthening
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
This stuff is complex enough, and the data incomplete enough, that I can't imagine anyone coming to a conclusion with any degree of confidence. I mean - we're talking about somehow mapping the details of the bedrock *beneath a glacier* no less, and trying to analyze the freeze-thaw cycles (if they existed in that location, under the glacier) over the past N years to determine if CC contributed to extra loosening that wouldn't have occurred otherwise without CC. That seems like an impossible task. The best we could do I think is to somehow measure the amount of these over time and see what is the trend. This is difficult of course due to the nature of the remoteness of the areas we're talking about; it would require a lot of satellite data details. -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
512high replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
66/ .22" -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's. -
Yes, look at different radar and elevations, there is more than one circulation present.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Keith Central PA replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Great storm, 1983 was great too, shame you weren't born yet. -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
Brewbeer replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
still 66/66 and raining -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
SouthCoastMA replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Gotta love it. 7/10 split -
2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Maggie Valley Steve replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Please pin this thread @buckeyefan1 and unpin the Spring/Summer thread. Thank you Michelle! -
Yep, for the first time that looks like a real nascent eyewall. It is not just low topped convection. If that wraps up this will obviously strengthen quicker. It is very obvious now though that the system is in a strengthening phase.
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Wow, look at that strong mesovortex wrap up at the tail end of the intensifying core band. Fascinating stuff watching this unfold on radar.
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Severe chances dropped for tomorrow
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Yes, like an ERC when it finishes and the sig intensification can occur again, Just the dry slot gap N and E makes this process less likely here.
