All Activity

Hell the 6Z GFS even has a December 5th reprise!

Seriously what the hell is wrong with everyone in this thread. It is November, we are tracking a pattern for a month from now, things will change, and either way it is for December.

MJO doesn't look to be much of a factor for early January, as will probably enter the COD by Xmas, so we are going to be left with a consolidating PV and PT regime.

not that it means anything, but he just won me over. Mind you, i dont follow nearly as deeply as you guys do, but that was a great showing against a good team.

Low of 36. So begins my week of gluttony. Tracking season is upon us. Cheers mates.

This is also supportive of a +PNA January.

First half warmth ? I think its will be the opposite if the MJO goes into 8 next month.

CPC said last Winter was the most +PNA Winter or record for a non-El Nino. Fwiw, there was a pretty -PNA period Jan 15 - Feb 10 that they were calling +PNA, but on these correlation maps what they say the index is what's used for correlations. I found it interesting that one year after most +PNA Winter's there isn't a +PNA signal the following Winter.. actually there is +NOI (+North Pacific High - the high pressure off the west coast), and that indicates more of a La Nina pattern... it was slightly predicting a la nina this winter. 1 December after last Dec +PNA... Fwiw, Jan +1 year doesn't reverse like December usually does

It’s a function of the snow drought that we have been in over the last 7 years that the entire area hasn’t had a daily 4” snowfall. Only a few spots got 4” on 2-12-24 and other dates since then. If we had long term continuous snowfall observations at smaller sites than NYC and LGA, then I am sure other spots beyond NYC and LGA would be continuing there under 4” streak also.

44 / 32 - sunny and warm today mid 50s , upper 50s to 60 Tue with rain (0.50 - 0.75) and warmest day Wed upper 50s t0 low 60s. Down below normal Thursday - highs in the 40s Thu - Sat, hard freezes inland and perhaps the city/ other locations get to freezing. Back warmer by the 2nd - 5th before turning colder again. Strong ridging into the south and building cold to the north/west - could equal multiple chances of snow/mixes the first half of next month, being in the middle / battleground - either way it looks wetter than normal.

December 5th historically is an auspicious day for snow in NYC.

That's what makes it so incredible IMO. If the east coast was in a 2011/2012 multi year repeat then this would be expected.

I don't think January will be cold in the mean because the second half cold will largely serve to negate the first half warmth. I think February and/or March will be colder.

The record is a fluke. JFK went over 4 inches twice in 2024, one of them being over 6 inches.

Wait, you don't like the Henry runs up the middle for -2 to +2 yards on first down EVERY DAMN TIME?!!?!? We really only get two chances to get a first down.

We had several rounds of flurries in Westfield yesterday. I got to watch while repairing a bullshit "insulation" job under what used to be our front porch. SO much cold coming up through the floor already into the living room. Closed cell FTW

Thanks Don! What makes this even more incredible IMO is the fact that during this time frame New Orleans had a bigger snowfall event of greater than 4 inches (and Ocean City Maryland had multiple events).

Same page, I'm still thinking January is the cold month for the east. Best chance for MA snows before Feb torch. Dec isn't really in play for us down here imho

Yea, but the PV isn't stout, either....you don't need February 2010 blocking to slide just under neutral in the monthly mean (NAO). This will be a good snowfall pattern for NE, but not the mid atl...agree. No KUs, but rather a series of moderate snowfalls owed to WAA/SWFEs. January will be the +PNA mismatch month this season....take that to the bank.

As someone with way too much insight in how these crappy things work, can you click on the weather and bring up the larger notification panel? See what city it is forecasting for. If you are using a VPN or your ISP gives you an IP that is registered somewhere else, the geolocation stuff isn't smart enough to figure it out. I also don't think EC is getting an inch of rain, but they really cover their bases with "up to". NWS has me .2-.5".

the lack of a prolonged SPV disruption lessens the risk of blocking this month... maybe late, but who knows this far out overall, looks pretty meh for the Northeast into mid-late month. the -WPO and TPV in Canada should continue to present snowfall risks, especially into New England, but large storms look unlikely as long as the NAO remains positive and the PNA negative should see the PNA rise later on in the month as the MJO continues to progress

you usually get the wave breaking needed for -NAO when you get a huge cutter... you usually need -PNA to accomplish this

It looks like the LGA daily record streak under 4” is continuing also. There may be a glitch in the program they use to calculate. Since it shows it ending last January 10th and there were no daily 4” snowfall totals after that date. But there were several daily 3.5” totals last winter. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2025-11-22 1 1077 2022-01-30 through 2025-01-10 2 1051 1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22 3 761 2018-11-16 through 2020-12-15 4 746 1950-02-14 through 1952-02-29 5 744 1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04 6 743 1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21 7 742 2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07 8 715 1972-02-24 through 1974-02-07 9 701 1975-02-13 through 1977-01-13 10 690 1941-03-09 through 1943-01-27 Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - January 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1165 845 - - 1003 0 0.51 4.1 2025-01-01 52 40 46.0 9.9 19 0 T 0.0 0 2025-01-02 44 35 39.5 3.6 25 0 T 0.0 0 2025-01-03 40 32 36.0 0.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-04 34 29 31.5 -4.0 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-05 34 28 31.0 -4.4 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-06 32 23 27.5 -7.7 37 0 0.04 0.5 0 2025-01-07 34 20 27.0 -8.0 38 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-08 31 24 27.5 -7.4 37 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-09 34 24 29.0 -5.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-10 41 28 34.5 -0.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-11 36 29 32.5 -2.0 32 0 0.02 M T 2025-01-12 43 31 37.0 2.6 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-13 44 34 39.0 4.8 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-14 36 26 31.0 -3.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-15 33 24 28.5 -5.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-16 31 25 28.0 -6.0 37 0 T T 0 2025-01-17 44 27 35.5 1.6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-18 46 36 41.0 7.1 24 0 0.11 0.0 0 2025-01-19 41 26 33.5 -0.3 31 0 0.18 3.6 M 2025-01-20 28 18 23.0 -10.8 42 0 T T 2 2025-01-21 20 13 16.5 -17.3 48 0 0.00 0.0 2 2025-01-22 21 13 17.0 -16.8 48 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-23 30 18 24.0 -9.8 41 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-24 34 25 29.5 -4.3 35 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-25 33 23 28.0 -5.8 37 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-26 44 32 38.0 4.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-27 42 33 37.5 3.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-28 42 33 37.5 3.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-29 53 32 42.5 8.5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-30 38 26 32.0 -2.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-31 50 38 44.0 9.9 21 0 0.16 0.0 0 Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - February 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1174 827 - - 810 0 2.61 7.7 - Average 41.9 29.5 35.7 -0.6 - - - - 0.3 Normal 42.7 29.9 36.3 - 804 0 2.93 9.8 2025-02-01 50 22 36.0 1.8 29 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-02 32 18 25.0 -9.3 40 0 0.10 1.2 0 2025-02-03 49 31 40.0 5.6 25 0 T T T 2025-02-04 50 31 40.5 5.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-05 37 27 32.0 -2.7 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-06 40 29 34.5 -0.3 30 0 0.32 0.4 T 2025-02-07 45 30 37.5 2.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-08 36 27 31.5 -3.6 33 0 0.58 3.5 0 2025-02-09 36 31 33.5 -1.7 31 0 0.05 0.1 2 2025-02-10 38 31 34.5 -0.9 30 0 0.00 0.0 2 2025-02-11 36 27 31.5 -4.1 33 0 0.12 1.0 1 2025-02-12 36 31 33.5 -2.2 31 0 0.10 0.5 2 2025-02-13 47 34 40.5 4.6 24 0 0.18 T T 2025-02-14 37 30 33.5 -2.6 31 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-02-15 36 28 32.0 -4.3 33 0 0.37 0.6 0 2025-02-16 49 34 41.5 5.1 23 0 0.79 0.0 0 2025-02-17 38 27 32.5 -4.1 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-18 28 20 24.0 -12.8 41 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-19 31 18 24.5 -12.5 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-20 30 19 24.5 -12.7 40 0 T 0.4 0 2025-02-21 35 22 28.5 -8.9 36 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-02-22 41 22 31.5 -6.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-23 47 35 41.0 3.2 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-24 49 34 41.5 3.5 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-25 57 43 50.0 11.8 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-26 57 43 50.0 11.6 15 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-27 55 40 47.5 8.8 17 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-28 52 43 47.5 8.6 17 0 T 0.0 0

Another interesting tidbit about the modern climate that @Stormchaserchuck1has pointed out is the tendency for -NAO intervals to coincide with -PNA.....which is important considering there should be some -NAO episodes early on. I think there was also a graphic he posted concerning the negative correlation for the following December after a strongly +PNA (last year)....not to mention the GLAAM being significantly more negative than last year. This dove tailed nicely into my expectation for a rapid recovery of the PV and lead into a January reflection event triggering a mid season +TNH pattern.

I like how the GGEM has temps between 10 and 15 degrees for basically all of Virginia Friday morning but here it has us above freezing lol