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Enjoy it while you can. We rolled into Chicago dinner time last night with temps in the low 50s. Today windy and low to mid 30s with intermittent flakes (very light). Looks to stay sub freezing most of the next 7 days. 3-6 or more Saturday/Saturday night looking increasingly likely.

I think he’s had 5 Pits since last winter.

Given today's trends, the non-event option seems to be fading fast; final outcome still dependent upon some finer points that will take another 3 days or so to resolve; degree of confluence across southeastern; strength of retreating high, any -nao assist, strength of low-level temp gradient etc... like most SWFE events interior is favored, but current trends suggest to me front end dump potential could be decent on the coastal plain as well??? No matter how this first one plays out, it could help improve the setup for events that follow?

18z Euro would probably be a decent hit west of the fall line. Nice SLP track, just need a better HP position for everyone to win. Although it is stronger and and in a better spot than 12z.

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer.

lol. Probably NoP 495. Anyways just fodder at this point. At least it’s something to watch.

Buzzard's Bay 495 look?

Link?

Currently 45.7/26.6 at 7 pm after a 61.7 high earlier. Winds started really blowing about 3 hours ago into the upper 30's. Currently NW at 16 gusting 31 mph.

The Euro Weeklies control run is frigid. The ensembles is obviously smoothed but seasonably cold. @John1122, the late December/early Jan cold snap is evident.

New to Americanwx so I'm still trying to figure things out here. How far usually 'til a storm thread is made?

Definitely a 495 look. Which is not a surprise on 12/2.

Pretty much expected: ALTHOUGH, WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON WHAT THE EURO GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, AS IT IS LARGELY AN OUTLIER. THE GFS/GEFS AND THE CANADIAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS HIGH WITH TOTALS, BUT STILL BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. QC

We’re due for another good old classic 495 storm. The high is actually starting in a decent spot at the onset. It retreats but even coast might get a good front ender if that antecedent airmass is good.

Just an op run but 18z GFS is a much better H5 look for frozen on the 6th for the corridor and points east for early Dec. At the surface- broad area of HP to the north, instead of a High sliding off the NE coast for the Dec 2-3 storm. All subject to change ofc.

Seems more reasonable tbh, track still looks good & I’d be very happy with a widespread 6-8”.

H7is by dendrite. Definitely more SWFE looking aloft.

Pouring

Steelwagon bank blow ups still might make Ray and some other central Eastern and Northern folk happy.

Those were some warning criteria winds today. Several locations well over 55mph multiple times. Cedar Rapids hit 64mph, Iowa City hit 63mph. MLI/DVN hit 57/56mph.

Guessing the cat is the Euro.

Where's Prismshine?

Torchy day. Think some breached 60F.

Neat sky at sunset tonight.

Well Randy u might wanna cross ur fingers bro just in case..... And a prayer wouldn't hurt lol