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The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

Yep, was looking forward to one more. Radar has RAPIDLY improved on north side too. Me thinks RI might be occurring. Crazy cool processes to watch on radar. For the talk earlier of no defined core, IR and radar both show it quickly blossoming. Lightning in southern quad is a definitive sign of strengthening too. Lets see how quickly it ramps up

Also related but only partially - and apologies if already posted. Saint Louis University is sunsetting their meteorology program and discontinuing CIPS on their site. But Mizzou has agreed to start hosting it - the new link to CIPS is here --> https://analog.missouri.edu/

That's part of the reason I suggested that the precise role of climate change remains to be determined. Given the body of literature, there was likely a role. The least likely scenario is none. Further study will be needed to gain a better understanding. Even if there is a flash attribution study, the full picture probably won't be available for several years until research findings are published.

.75 nice drink so far.

Recon just lifted to flight-home altitude, so it appears there won't be another pass.

This next pass could see some very significant intensification if these rapid increases in radar velocities are sustained and sampled

backdoor front will be S and W of most of the area tomorrow-stable airmass in place

It's not handling the Pacific well at all.

I drove past his place yesterday. Surprised to see hills.

Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year?

Some 60 kt velocities now showing up from LCH, recon finally found 50+ kt FL winds. Probably a 45 kt storm now, still strengthening

This stuff is complex enough, and the data incomplete enough, that I can't imagine anyone coming to a conclusion with any degree of confidence. I mean - we're talking about somehow mapping the details of the bedrock *beneath a glacier* no less, and trying to analyze the freeze-thaw cycles (if they existed in that location, under the glacier) over the past N years to determine if CC contributed to extra loosening that wouldn't have occurred otherwise without CC. That seems like an impossible task. The best we could do I think is to somehow measure the amount of these over time and see what is the trend. This is difficult of course due to the nature of the remoteness of the areas we're talking about; it would require a lot of satellite data details.

66/ .22"

After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's.

After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's.

Yes, look at different radar and elevations, there is more than one circulation present.

Great storm, 1983 was great too, shame you weren't born yet.

still 66/66 and raining

Gotta love it. 7/10 split

Please pin this thread @buckeyefan1 and unpin the Spring/Summer thread. Thank you Michelle!

Yep, for the first time that looks like a real nascent eyewall. It is not just low topped convection. If that wraps up this will obviously strengthen quicker. It is very obvious now though that the system is in a strengthening phase.

Wow, look at that strong mesovortex wrap up at the tail end of the intensifying core band. Fascinating stuff watching this unfold on radar.

Severe chances dropped for tomorrow

Yes, like an ERC when it finishes and the sig intensification can occur again, Just the dry slot gap N and E makes this process less likely here.