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CPC's PNA index is a little weird, DJFM 23-24 was 4/4 +PNA months, totaling +2 and the overal H5 for it was a +45dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands... kind of a big difference. In Jan 2025 there was a +200dm ridge and they were saying it was +PNA.

Closer to neutral doesn't mean -PNA but there is a tendency in those two months.

Yes, me, too....but there is no way the EURO will be too warm under that ridge...the pattern in this era of accelerated CC, the correction vector for seasonal guidance has been warmer underneath the ridges, which is why I was saying that...it's not some random, arbitrary guess. The model doesn't have much of a shot of busting cold anywhere nowadays, and if it does, it isn't going to under the ridge.

I will bet anyone $5,000 right now that DJFM will average +PNA....now, maybe guidance overdoes it, or the placement/orientation is less than ideal...different argument.

yeah i don't buy that -PNA in a super nino

Thank you, I'm really excited to see her in the morning and cook some eggs and scrapple in the parking lot lol. You have fun tomorrow as well!

00z analysis gives 99L 30 kt and 1015 mb. Convection is better for overall coverage, but is still is disorganized w/ pulsing. You can see an anticyclonic jet plume starting to impinge on the srn part of the system. Also, on WV, the overall circulation has become more elongated since 18z. That is not a positive sign. Objectively, it is TD I think, but given the surrounding environmental trends, NHC may not do anything at 03z.

Picked up a nice 0.61" this evening. Best rain since July. 1.33" for the month

With all the chilly weather and cold rains falling in Wisconsin per my uncle, I think this could turn out to be some unusual Nino with a wet northern tier! And NO RAIN at all in Texas lol. What else is new.

Lol there is a double standard of heat vs ac. Most would be ecstatic if they didn't need to use heat in the winter. It really wasn't that bad, try a cold shower and some ice cream. Don, Fall doesn't begin until Tuesday. Nope perfect morning weather. You're strange. Days of clouds and rain is MUCH worse. Nothing a pint of ice cream and a cold shower won't fix. What is causing these large highs to our north? This is why you need a covered deck. Wow 10 degrees lower than JFK here, 73 degrees. It was the perfect day. I loved that fall but that other fall when we had 0 rainfall in October and multiple 80 degrees readings and even mid 80s in November was even better. No heat until November 13th!

Seen another tornado was confirmed by NWS State Colleget in Centre County that happened back in July.

Got 0.27''today,enough to cool it off. 2.87'' for the month.

These execs who are warning us about it seem like drug addicts to me in a way. They can't control their own competitive crapitalistic urges so they want outside regulations to control them. There is talk of putting in a kill switch but the usual opposition to regulations are opposing it. On top of that there is a whole other side to this, the noise, air and water pollution of data centers that feed AI as well as rising energy costs resulting from them. Entire communities are rising up against them and some states like New York now have data center moratoriums. The neurophysiologist who partnered up with Sir Roger Penrose is Stuart Hamerhoff. They together created the theory of microtubules as the vehicle of quantum consciousness. I don't believe either consciousness nor gravity can be quantized either both are emergent properties. But neither can space and time be quantized because they are emergent properties too. Neither black holes nor the big bang were one off singularities. A singularity is just evidence that the theory has broken down on an extreme level. Cyclic theory does away with singularities by replacing gravity with a repulsive force below the level of space time so there is a bounce rather than a bang or a collapse. By the way that new math you might be looking for is octonion math also known as 8 dimensional math. Relativity was formulated in quaternion or 4 dimensional math but for a unified theory of everything a higher dimensional mathematics is required and it might be octonions.

I would bet on the following winter being way better. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña, even a strong one than this super Nino bullshit. I like it when Canada is frigid.

Change is coming

Picked up .14" from an early afternoon cell but nothing after. High of 97 at 2:14pm, low of 72 at 7:38am. July temps, not mid-September.