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ok, at 102 it looks like the baja low is stsaying back a little bit more? might help it show a more snowy solution instead of icy

Don’t notice it was 6Z.

Hey Carvers and others, WxBell definitely didn’t fix the Euro AI ensemble snow maps algos. These two members (#10 and #22) with multiple inches of snow way out in the Gulf are from the hour 84 6Z Euro AIFS, when temps are near normal (70s):

11/30: Mix of sleet and light rain for a couple hours before switching to light cold rain. 12/2: Mix early in the morning before flipping to hard, cold rain. 12/5: 2.25”. 2” in the man event and 0.25” later that evening/overnight. 12/13: 1.25” 1/17-18: T - An hour or so of sleet/flurries on the 17th and very light snow on the 18th Running Total: 3.5”

I’m not sure about the wagons south thing, it’s a massive storm. There is a lot of energy flying around.

Ended up with 8 inches between the two here. Last 3 inches are light and fluffy

AI GFS looks pretty similar at hr 90.

Nothing too different. just noise level feature placements at 72

We had the precip, but thermals were off. Still got some snow and whitened things up nicely over here. Just didn’t really get to the 1” mark. Life at the coast! Still had snow and football….hard to beat that.

Records: Highs: EWR: 64 (1951) NYC: 64 (1951) LGA: 64 (1951) JFK: 58 (1972) Lows: EWR: -2 (1994) NYC: -2 (1994) LGA: -2 (1994) JFK: 0 (1994) Historical: 1786: The reading of -24° at Hartford, CT was the coldest temperature ever seen on a thermometer up to that time. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1810 - The famous "cold day" in New England. Gale force winds wrecked homes, and accompanied a sudden overnight drop in temperature of 50 degrees. Tradgedy struck Sanbornton NH where three chidren froze to death. (David Ludlum) 1857: The Great Blizzard and Freeze, Jan. 18-19, 1857: More than a foot of snow fell with temperatures below 20°F across the state. Strong winds caused structural damage on land, wrecked ships at sea and great drifts that blocked transportation through the state. One report states that Norfolk was buried under 20 foot drifts of snow. Washington, DC got 14 to 24 inches, with drifts four feet deep; Portsmouth reported 16 inches; Halifax, about 16 inches with drifts to five feet; Brunswick County reported 18 inches; Prince George County 15 inches; Christiansburg measured 14 inches; and Winchester 8 inches. Richmond was cut off from Washington, DC for seven days. The Richmond Enquirer's editor remarked, "Sunday last we had one of the severest snowstorms which has occurred in this area for many years. Snow commenced falling about 7 pm Saturday night and by Sunday morning the wind had increased to a perfect gale - all day Sunday and Sunday night the snow fell rapidly accompanied by high winds which banked up the snow in some places as high as seven or eight feet. On average we would think the snow about two feet deep." Temperatures fell below zero after the storm: Christiansburg reported -8°F; a Petersburg newspaper reported the temperature in the city dropped from -15°F to -22°F; temperatures fell to between -10° to -17° in Halifax; at Portsmouth, it was -5°F. The cold was so extreme that all Virginia rivers were frozen over. The Chesapeake Bay was solid ice a 1 ½ miles out from its coast. At Cape Henry, one could walk out 100 yards from the lighthouse on the frozen ocean. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) (Ref. Early American Winters Vol. II 1821-1870 by David M. Ludlum pp. 113 - 114) 1893: Even more dramatic was the 42 degree increase in temperature in just 15 minutes that occurred at Fort Assinboine, Montana, on January 19, 1893. (Extreme Weather p. 68, by Christopher C. Burt) 1925: Maine recorded a minimum temperature of (-48F) at Van Buren a record until january 16, 2009 when a -50 °F was recorded at Big Black River, ME. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1933 - Giant Forest CA received 60 inches of snow in just 24 hours, a state record, and the second highest 24 hour total of record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) 1961: Eight inches of snow fell and caused crippling traffic jams around the Washington D.C. area on the eve of John Kennedy's inauguration. The president-elect had to cancel dinner plans and, in a struggle to keep other commitments, reportedly had only 4 hours of sleep. Former President Herbert Hoover was unable to fly into Washington National Airport due to the weather, and he had to miss the swearing-in ceremony. 1961: The Kennedy inaugural snowstorm began as low pressure centered in northern Tennessee on the morning of the 19th. It was starved for moisture and only produce light snows to the north of the track but by the afternoon of the 19th the storm center moved to Virginia and then "exploded" near the coast. and snowfall quickly developed over the Washington, DC area. By evening the rate of snowfall intensified and winds increased from the Northeast to 25 mph National Airport reported visibility of zero and a total white out. The snow tapered off by midnight leaving 7.7 inches it National Airport to liquid equivalent was 1.14 inches which was more than typical of 11 inches storm. General and about 8 inches fell throughout the metropolitan area. Snowfall amounts were less to the south with Richmond receiving only 1 inch and areas in the northern Maryland region had as much as 16 inches of snow. The temperature did not rise above freezing for 11 days is not until January 31st when the high temperature reached 33 degrees Fahrenheit. (p. 71-73 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) January 19-20 1961 from North Carolina to New York. Virginia saw up to 12 inches. It caused a great traffic jam in northern and central Virginia and D.C.. Two deaths were blamed on the storm in Virginia, due to overexertion and accidents. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 28th Worst Snowstorm 1971: High pressure across the Great Basin brought record heat to parts of the Southwest. It was 90° at Borrego Springs, CA their highest temperature on record for January. Other daily record highs for the date included: Downtown Los Angeles, CA: 92°, Palm Springs, CA: 91°, Riverside, CA: 88°, Phoenix, AZ: 88°, Yuma, AZ 88°, Tucson, AZ: 85°, Victorville, CA: 77°, Palomar Mountain, CA: 75°, Las Vegas, NV: 74°, Idyllwild, CA: 74°, Bishop, CA: 72°, Big Bear Lake, CA: 68°, Winnemucca, NV: 67° and Flagstaff, AZ: 59°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1977 - Snowflakes were observed at Homestead and Miami Beach in extreme southern Florida. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm tracking toward the northeastern U.S. produced up to 14 inches of snow in northern Indiana. Peru IN reported a foot of snow. Six cities in Florida reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 88 degrees at Miami equalled their record for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A powerful storm hit the central U.S. producing blizzard conditions in the Central High Plains, and severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Snowfall totals ranged up to 36 inches at Wolf Creek Pass CO, with 31 inches at Elsmere NE. Tornadoes claimed five lives in Tennessee, and a tornado at Cullman AL injured 35 persons. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - The high temperature for the day at Fairbanks, AK, was a frigid 41 degrees below zero, and the morning low of 24 degrees below zero at Anchorage AK was their coldest reading in fourteen years. (National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in eastern Texas and Louisiana. Tornadoes at Garland TX and Apple Springs TX each injured one person. Heavy snow spread from the Southern and Central Rockies into the Great Plains. Storm totals in New Mexico reached 36 inches at Gascon. Totals in the Central Plains ranged up to 15 inches near McCook NE and Garden City KS. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: An unusual series of Pacific storm systems tracked across Arizona from January 6th through the 19th, producing heavy and prolonged precipitation across the state. These heavy rains caused the most widespread and severe flooding in Arizona since the turn of the century. The protracted rainfall over the 2 weeks caused multiple flood peaks on most streams and rivers. A large garbage landfill and portions of the new Mill Avenue Bridge under construction were washed away by the raging Salt River. The Gillespie Dam west of Phoenix was damaged as high water spread throughout low-lying areas. One man drowned while trying to cross the Agua Fria River. 1994: Very cold at Annandale, VA Maximum only +6°F at 1450 hrs. Minimum -7° at 0838 hrs. (Annandale Weather Records) National Airport Maximum 8° one degree from the lowest maximum this century. The minimum temperature was -4°F That makes this day one of only five days in the official climate history of Washington (11-1-1870- present) to have a maximum temperature less than 10 degrees F. The first time was on 12-30-1880 when the high was 9 °F and the second was 12-30-1917 when the high was 9 degrees F. A high temperature of 8 °F has occurred twice also - the first time was this date (1-13-1912) and the second time was 1-19-1994. The coldest maximum ever recorded in Washington, DC occurred on 2-10-1899: 4 °F (Washington Weather Records - Stanley Rossen) Arctic outbreak settles in with nearly 100 records, 14 cities coldest ever. Parish, NY picked up several hours of snow accompanied by thunder and lightning with forty-two inches of new snow falling as lake effect snows continued off of Lake Ontario. New Whitehead, IN -36 °F sets all time state record low temperature Greenbank, WV -35 °F, Bethel, OH -40 °F, St. Cloud, MN -50 °F and Shelbyville, KY set a new record low for the state of KY at - 37 °F. (Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac) This a.m. was the coldest in many years across parts of the eastern Corn Belt of Ohio and the Great Lakes. -37°F at New Whiteland, Indiana, set Indiana's all-time cold record by 1°. All time record lows included -27° at Indianapolis Indiana and -22° at Pittsburgh Pennsylvania. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) 1995: 19.7 inches of snow fell on Columbia, MO. The storm would break records for the greatest twenty-four hour snowfall and greatest single snowstorm total. Blizzard conditions resulted as winds gusted to 45 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: January 1996 is known as one of the worst snowmelt floods on record for the Mid-Atlantic. The region saw blizzard conditions on January 6 and 7th, which produced 15 to 24 inches east of I-95, and 2 to 3 feet of snow west of I-95. With a tremendous amount of snow on the ground, on January 19, temperatures soared into the 50s and 60s ahead of an approaching cold front. At 7 am in Washington, D.C., was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with a dewpoint of 60 degrees, both unusually high for a January morning. The warm temperatures combined with rain to melt much of the snowpack, released into the waterways. 1996: Moderate to heavy rains and an incredible snowmelt triggered by a rapid warm-up caused serious flooding along the Delaware, Susquehanna, upper Ohio, Potomac and James River basins in Pennsylvania, with crests as much as twenty feet above flood stage. The flooding killed thirty-three people, forced over 200,000 from their homes, and destroyed or damaged hundreds of roads and bridges. January 19-22, 1996: Just one week after 2 to 4 feet of snow fell over western Virginia, temperatures warmed into the 60°s ahead of a front which brought thunderstorms and heavy rain. The sudden warm-up caused a rapid snow melt. The melted snow was the equivalent of 2 to 4 inches of rain. Some areas saw another 2 to 5 inches of rainfall on top of the melted snow. The saturated ground meant that all the rain and snow became run off into the streams and rivers, which could not handle it. Major flooding resulted. This sort of event had not happened since March 1936. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

Places like Westhampton will likely see at least single digits, assuming clear skies and a lack of wind. Records for Westhampton are -7 on 1/24 and 1 on 1/25.

So far no major changes through hour 60. Going to need to watch the NS interaction coming up. Edit: Take this back as the Southern vort is slightly more eastward and slightly more north which cant hurt us.

Old runs bud. Was showing what we are looking for coming up.

First post of the season for me since there hasn't been a season to speak of until now! With all the hype online of this upcoming potential Winter Storm, it's time to dive in and start posting model runs! 06Z Euro. Using Kuchera since this has it snowing in single digit temps on the Euro. Will post all the 12Z runs soon!

Maybe one of the worst head fakes(here) was snowmageddon. All those pretty 30" clown maps moved to DC. Well, the worst headfake was CLT area forecast to get 3-4' right up to and during the storm....not even sure the grass got covered. So yes, I want the synoptics right before jumping on board fully. I don't like that the Baja low has a different iteration w/ each run. I don't know which camp is gonna be right about the high which will likely roll into the northern Plains. Is it 1040-1042 or is it 1050+? Definitely important things still to sort out...

i would go with the ai models until proven wrong. They had the weekend storm right

https://x.com/_jwall/status/2013273456691868076

GFS might be more suppressive than EURO, based on that map. Confluence is further south.

Ended up with 4.2”, same as the official ORH site. A solid event on top of 2” the prior day. It really is a winter wonderland.

a really strong and big storm could poke through the cold high especially if the high isn't north of us, in this case the high is actually trailing from our northwest. the storm has to be a big one though like January 26th 2016

Do you think LI sees single digits? My noaa forecast has me down to 6 Saturday night

That's a fair point. I would say it's probably more of a gradient in that respect, and separating them into two different categories is likely an overgeneralization. Thanks for pointing it out!

I think if you look at the ensembles from the Euro and GFS they are pretty much in agreement with each other at this point as far as snowfall totals go. Once we get in the 48-hour range, I would almost bet whatever the EPS shows you can about take it to the bank.

What a horrible coaching hire, 40% winning percentage. 1/3 league no coach. Still hurts lions shit the bed but rooting for Broncos. Surprised Johnson didn't go for 2 at end of game.