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Low of 29, high of 46. Breeze made it feel colder. No accumulated snow from last night.

Rgem and Icon have nothing for Friday. Hard to have confidence in anything but flurries without total model support.

Thankfully basically zero similarities between those two years at the moment. We’ve had a different Pacific regime compared to recent years so far…that very strong WPO block is not something that’s been there. In recent years, we’ve seen a generally strong positive WPO which will tend to mute the cold…the negative phase has the opposite effect which is probably why our cold has been overperforming in the medium range.

Yep. That Aleutian HP is where we need the LP to be. Need that HP over Alaska and need that LP near the GOA to move to Aleutians. As is, that Pac Jet's going to roar between the Goa Low and the Epac and West Coast Ridge. if it comes in strong enough it'll flood the US with Pacific Air and downslope off the Rockies spreading warmth. If it were to blast in further North it could potentially flood western and central Canada scouring the cold out. Kentucky Post was right on with that post about needing that Ridge to link with the Alaskan HP.

4+ years of garbage winters will do that...

Wow! The "Mark Model" has an incredible 2-4 inches areawide (except a bit less along the Mon Valley), with up to 6" closer to I-80 and along the ridges. Somebody better alert the NWS.

View from my hubbys “office” today at the top of Wisp. Let’s see what it looks like tomorrow.

2015-2016 is not a winter anyone wants to show up on comparisons/analogs. Blech!

The Susquehanna has a significant amount of ice today.

I think SVT should be reasonably well with this. It's a poor man's bread and butter here with the SW flow upsloping into the Taconic's and Greens from the Hudson Valley. Well see I guess.

As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us.

Probably a mute point as I’m sure 0z will show something completely different lol

Could it be because of the cold weather? low dew points? Instead of a clipper with temps closer to 32F?

Probably about right. But the cold was basically wall to wall until mid February. High school in the late ‘70’s so it’s a bit hazy.

Which one you referring to tip

2015! (ok verification was a few days off)

They usually don’t dry up as much as modeled and also with how juiced it looked coming over the mountains thought would result in a better light event. Will see what future runs show if anything at all.

His own son

Yeah. I thought that was the rule here. Which is why we hate clippers. They don't tap that gulf moisture so the moisture it does have gets wasted on the west side of the mountains. Upslope?

He’s probably falling through pond ice as we speak.

Big double thumbs down on this. I kind of hate nw flow. Because I feel these tend to setup up north of here. Just cold and dry makes me wanna

Too busy at work to chase... but next time there is a Blizzard Warning I'll need to figure something out lol

Thank you!

EPS jumped north/wetter too, suspect jackpot will be to my southwest but like the look of the baroclinic zone and am hedging stronger.

Now that I am back and things have settled down a bit, here are a thought or two... 1. Recent Nina winters have followed a fairly predictable pattern. Cold end to November, cold start December, flip to warm around Christmas. and cold returns for late Jan and Feb, especially middle and western areas of the forum. 2. I don't trust models right now past ten days - if that. There has been a lot of feedback in the usual places. So, pivot back to point number one.... 3. To me, the real question is whether we get one final cold shot right before Christmas - 50/50 for me on that one. I think the warm-up after Christmas has been well advertised. We know how the last warm-up worked out - cold. Let's see how this one goes. 4. There are things to track prior to Christmas. I see roughly (4) windows to monitor. I will try to dig a bit deeper later. I got 0z, 6z, and 12z to look back through. Tomorrow is gonna be even crazier.