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I mentioned that a couple days ago. maybe someone pulls a bonus fluffy inch or two along typical spots

Merry Christmas yall! Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

NAM leading the charge unfortunately. How many times over the years have we discounted its warm push only to be burned . If I’ve learned anything it’s that

Merry Christmas to those who celebrate. It’s an official white Christmas in Minneapolis with a snow depth of 2” at the airport. Historic odds of a white Christmas are 71% in the city but rise to over 80% in the far northern metro.

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Yeah I was looking at mid levels and there’s an area that looks like it would be pounding but it’s north of the good QPF. Wonder if there is an undermodeled death band for a few hours near that northern line.

I’d take some herpes.

Very odd indeed but NWS Albany is always late putting up watches and warnings. There should be a watch up with start time less than 36 hours away. Dutchess county needs 7 inches in 24 hours to reach warning criteria but to post nothing is ridiculous especially with holiday travel. They can always change to WWA or warning.

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the Herpes yet. And yeah, this has the look of a super sharp cutoff

Remember around Thanksgiving when we thought we were going to lose the first 2 weeks of December & then things would look better towards mid month…? Reality is that we had well below normal temps & most have had a couple of measurable snow events. This upcoming pattern looks variable with chances if of course the timing & track are right.

3K NAM shift

Merry Christmas 39 / 27 on this Christmas morning - cloudy. Warmest day of the next week (maybe Monday ties it). Snow/mix /sleet storm tomorrow night into Saturday. A bit tempered with the cold as Bluewave had mentioned but im sure we'll teeter day to day forecasts. Overall cold with the coldest 12/30 - 1/2. Moderation beyond there to a warmer / near normal overall.

FRZ or Sleet?

Wow, NAM now has -9C @ 850 during height of precipitation and low exiting southern tip of Delmarva….casual 100s of mile shift south. This being said, I would not out too much faith in this model getting any details right…trend is obvious though, back towards GFS/Euro

Meanwhile I don’t have any watches or advisories for my area. Very odd since everyone else has them. .

NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous

The HRRR tends to be too wet at this range, so precip amounts are likely somewhat overdone. The snow map is using dynamic snow:liquid ratio calculated by the HRRR. What is interesting is the 12 to 13:1 ratios from western LI and NYC to NE NJ.

I feel like those are modeled every decent storm, then fade quick as storm starts, models are more weenies that us.. They happen but are very rare ..

oh not a fan of his

Merry Christmas to snowman and everyone! A 100+ mph or 50ish m/s peak has been forecasted for over a week on the EPS (by the way, 80-85 mph is normal…so 100 mph isn’t as anomalously high as it may sound). During these cold and often snowy E US periods in Jan, the SPV averaged 100 mph+ (peak in mph noted) keeping in mind that the Jan of 2026 peak is being forecasted at ~110-120 mph: -2025: 130 peak -Jan 1-8 of 2018, which had very cold and a very rare SE coast big snow: 130 -2016 had cold around the period of the huge NE snowstorm: 150! -2014: 120 -2nd half of 2011 had big snows/cold NE: 110 -1st half of 2010: 120 -Jan 1-17 of 2009: 150! -2nd half of 2005: 160! -2nd half of 2000: 125 -1st half of 1996: 130 -1984: 155! -Jan 1-18 of 1981: 150! -Jan 9-20 of 1979: 125 ——————————— Anyone can see all of these zonal wind peak details here, which is where I just got them from: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh

Is the NAM starting to pick up on where that fronto band will traverse? But you can see with this one...its essentially where that fronto band occurs. Outside of that band precip is pretty meager. The cutoff is going to be wild

Called the hartford jack this run

NWS has increased the amounts from 5-8" last evening. To 6-10" this morning for my area.

The preceiptitation won't be particularly heavy so it might be prime accretion weather especially Friday night with temperatures in mid to upper 20's. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk