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  2. Birds~69
    Blizzard cancel?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sell early phase.
  4. wdrag
    That's what I just saw as well. Research prior to the birth of many younger mets. I still think it worthwhile for forecasters who have time, to run a quick check.
  5. cutlew started following Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
  6. sbnwx85
    HRRR picking up on a heavy lake effect band/mesolow swinging through Berrien County mid-late Sunday afternoon. Would be a mess with 10-12” already on the ground.
  7. tuanis
    Still pretty light rates here, closing in on an inch. Hope this afternoon cranks, probably another 10 hours or so of accumulating snow to go.
  8. NorthHillsWx
    I guess it’s just a spot without any pavement and a lot of farmland. Just happens to have a weather station there. Mine is actually on top of a hill so I’m sure there are colder spots on the farm too. Last year with snow cover it was exceptionally cold compared to RDU
  9. mimillman
    Pretty big bust incoming for you
  10. WEATHER53
    Time now for snowier solutions cycle to reappear
  11. dryslot
    Huge actually lol, It has a bit of a hybrid look to it, Almost a bit SWFE ish on some of these runs, The 12z Euro should be of interest to see what it does.
  12. powderfreak
    Pretty big change from 00z. We watch.
  13. A-L-E-K
    Quality at the moment
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I probably rushed the PV recovery, which I can live with...the bigger deal is getting the Pacific trough transition correct.
  15. dryslot
    Around the 5th is the next opportunity.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Euro is keeping that southern vort independent of the northern stream for quite a bit longer. These more amped models are trying to phase earlier so you get a big WAA surge out ahead of it.
  17. hudsonvalley21
    No mention in the AFD’s from either in regards to the shortwave.
  18. Blizzard of 93
    Yes indeed! This would make most of us get off to a great start to Winter if it comes close to verifying. I like the timing as well with the onset & thump in the early am.
  19. wdrag
    Tech Attachment from 1989 attached> references an older set of models but the pattern still applies. See the checklist. https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta88-17b.pdf
  20. katabatic
    10.8 this morning. Coldest so far this year by 6 degrees.
  21. ORH_wxman
    GGEM was even slower than the GFS to turn the low and midlevels out of the east. And it’s because of how it handles the vort. It keeps a strong vort tracking through western NY. You aren’t getting big snowstorms for a good chunk of New England like that.
  22. dryslot
    Just based it off of the track, I don't generally dive very deep into the GGEM.
  23. moneypitmike
    Unless I missed something, only VT has has a warning this month. Unless GYX/BOX hoists anything tomorrow, we'll have question 1 resolved.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Similar but def warmer.
  25. steve392
    Of course I change jobs and the snow possibilities plummet for my new work location vs old
  26. metallica470
    In it right now. Its the real deal! Looks like a snow globe out here!
  27. dryslot
    It was similar to the 12z GFS.
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