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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
Hurricane Agnes replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
I finally caved and put my heat on last Tuesday and at least I got a few days before the indoor humidity crashed to 22%. Needless to say, the humidifiers were fired up yesterday afternoon and and overnight, and I'm finally @35% (with the rain helping). Had my first frozen of the season yesterday. About 3:15 pm, my Upper Darby sis had texted "And now it's sleeting". I hopped up and looked out and didn't see anything except some possible drizzle (it was in the mid-40s at the time). But about 15 minutes later I checked and heard the unmistakable pingers. Obviously nothing was sticking but it was there. Eventually it became a mix of light rain and sleet. Ended up with 0.01" of that yesterday and woke up to 0.20" this morning. After a 32 low yesterday morning, made it up to 47 and it's currently 39 with light rain (now at 0.32" in the bucket), and dp 38. -
Agreed, just some flurries here.
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For the MA, phase 7 is a transition phase. It is usually the precursor to big storms. Not always, but some.
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Wow. Not sure about this.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
mahantango#1 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Rain and big wet snowflakes here 34 degrees. -
FWIW, Judah updated his SPV blog for anyone interested:
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Flurries/on and off snow showers in Sloatsburg. Nothing sticking anywhere. 35 degrees
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Interesting trade for the Os. Dropping injury prone Grayson for an outfielder, Taylor Ward, with power. Ward has 61 HRs and 178 RBIs in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Grayson hasn’t pitched since July 2024. One can hope this means the Os will be aggressive with getting pitching help.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Voyager replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yup. Snowing in Tamaqua and Hazleton. I had a hell of a ride just to get to the truck. Quarter sized flakes and a Jeep with recessed LED lights meant that they caked up with snow. I got the "star wars" effect, but I couldn't see the road worth a damn... -
A lot has changed in the last month. Waters have cooled east of Japan and warmed in the east Pacific, a trend likely to continue. The PDO by my calculations is closing in on -1, and should rise further with this pattern. The -IO has collapsed. With some decent cooling near the MC, hopefully limiting MJO 4-6 this winter. The +AMO is strengthening but with a tripole pattern. RONI remains below -1. Global temperature anomalies dropped another 0.1 C in the last month.
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Oh look the classic warm/wet to cold/dry and vice versa pattern. SE ridge comes back every time
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
MAG5035 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I just woke up right as this was ending here and have a half inch on the ground and slushy roads. Def a bit of a surprise as it was only supposed to be maybe a rain/snow mix here at best. Can see snow or snowing on the 511 cams down to at least Mifflintown. At any rate on the board with the first measurable of the new season here. -
@sussexcountyobs @wdrag Let me know if things start to pick up with the stuff coming in from the west.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Jns2183 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Somebody has to be seeing snow from this. It's 32 up in Perry County Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk -
Snow level is quite high in the Poconos early this morning. Looks like you have to be at least 1500’ up to see steady snow currently and even there it’s difficult to find it sticking anywhere. Places lower than that don’t look to see more than a mix at times.
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Light snow. 33.3
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
Modfan2 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Down to 23F here in the Valley, coldest of the season. -
I've seen an ice pellet report via MPING over sw Long Island at 320AM. Mixed rain/sleet NYC area with possibly a few wet flakes for the Bronx by the time 7AM rolls around.
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Flurries have started in Wantage NJ... definitely a HRRR bust from yesterdays 12 and 18z modeling but lets see what the finals are. Sleet on parts of Long Island now.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Yardstickgozinya replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I haven't seen any out here tonight. I was out burning brush that I've been saving for a rainy night. We had a good clip of snow , sleet and gruple Sunday afternoon that you should have got in on. We also had couple of snow flurries flying around a few nights prior. -
That shot is a great representation of what’s been going on out there. I was busy yesterday as well, but I was able to swing by Bolton for a quick tour to check out the snow from the back side of the system. I was going to head up to the main base, which has been the way to go so far this season with its overall deeper snowpack, but I passed by Timberline and could see that the snow looked great even down to 1,500’, so I figured I’d save some time and tour there. Right at base lodge level I was getting snow depth readings in the 15-20” range, and part of that is consolidated base, so I could tell that all the terrain would be good to go. I have no idea what the snow depths are up above 3,000’, but with the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake sitting around 40”, it’s probably getting close to that mark in Bolton’s higher elevations as well. Anyway, Saturday offered up some great skiing, but yesterday’s skiing was next level because of the new powder that fell. Up to this point in the season, I’d say my outing back on the 6th had offered the best quality turns, but it certainly takes a back seat to yesterday. My snow analyses from the back side of the system gave an average of 6.0% H2O, and it was set up perfectly with a right-side-up gradient atop the denser snow below. If I rated Saturday’s skiing as a 6 out of 10, then yesterday was up around 9 out of 10. I guess a way to improve it would be to go even deeper, but 1 to 2 feet of 6% powder with a density gradient beneath it is way up there in quality – the turns were just effortless, and you really couldn’t go wrong. Those are stellar ski conditions for any time of the season, but it’s especially notable for mid-November. As I was floating down through the champagne on the Twice as Nice trail, one thing that struck me was that many ski areas in the country might not even have a day all year with such primo conditions. There was actually only one other car at Timberline for the entire time I was there. It was a father and son out for some touring, and the son had already had hockey practice that morning, so this was his next activity of the day. There’s nothing like getting in two sports before it’s even lunch time. The dad, Willie, saw me taking some pictures and when I confirmed who I was, he introduced himself as a fan of our website, so it was fun way to meet another couple of Bolton Valley regulars.
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How much snow did Baltimore get during the 13 phase 7 Dec periods that were during La Niña? I’ll check now: 12/16-19/1974 (temps 1 AN): 0.4” 12/7-9/1988 (temps 1 BN): 0.8” 12/23-25/1988 (temps 5 AN): none 12/9-19/1995 (temps 7 BN): 1.5” (3 snows) 12/20-23/1998 (temps 4 AN): 3.0” on 12/23, which was very cold 12/20-30/1999 (temps 3 BN): 0.2” 12/11-14/2000 (temps 5 BN): T 12/14-21/2008 (temps 2 AN): T 12/16-20/2010 (temps 11 BN): 1.2” 12/9-11/2017 (temps 5 BN): 2.8” 12/17-20/2017 (temps 5 AN): none 12/19-31/2021 (temps 7 AN): T 12/28-31/2024 (temps 13 AN): none ———- From this list: -Temps averaged right at normal -9.9” snow over 77 days or on avg 0.13”/day How does 0.13” snow per day of phase 7 in Dec La Niña compare to all of 1974-2025 Dec climo at Baltimore? They averaged 2.2”/Dec 1974-2025 or 0.07”/day. Compare the 0.13”/day to 0.07”/day: that’s 185% of the average for all Dec days since 1974 and the conclusion is that Baltimore did quite well overall with snow during phase 7 in Dec for La Niña vs the avg for all Dec days. @stadiumwave
