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The issue with Carrington+ solar super storms is that the grid was not engineered with those in mind. There are no safe-guards, there are no redundancies after the fact. "In the cards" isn't really the issue - unless we mean at some unknown point in the future. But there's nothing imminent. As far as when? dice roll. Beryllium-10 and chlorine-36 are manufactured when the atmosphere is bombarded by cosmic rays associated with super storms and left as residue in the wake. They have been sampled in deep ice coring ... occurring in irregular intervals between 400 to 2400 years apart - the grid as we know it is utterly defenseless against these class of event. Infrastructural engineering over generations did not have solar physics in mind. Carrington+ event with the current physicality of the grid would result in a pan-systemic failure that would not be recoverable without physically replacing substation and connective utility infrastructure at a global scale. This is not hyperbole. This not fabrication of social media and/or media selling drama and fear for profit. This is fact. This verifiable. This is not something one can just not believe in because we live in an age where people think if they don't like hearing something they can choose not to believe it, and that makes it untrue. It's true whether one believes it or not.

looks like the high will be 96.4 for Fort Collins

3.24 in the last 24 hours

Yes, going by ACE, if you use the current 123 seasonal ACE normal value. All New England landfalling hurricanes since 1938 have been below avg ACE years, except 1969.

Not that many sig tor (F2/EF2+) in NNE on record. Attached is a list of the farthest N ones. Any tor documented close to the Canadian border outside the CAR area are rare. Only one since 1975 I could find is this one. ME MAY 23, 1984 1620 0k 0inj 15y 0.3m F1 SOMERSET - Homes were damaged and a barn lifted and thrown in Jackman.

Don’t the messenger: I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not:

Baker, MT, only goes back to 1988!

Forgot this thread and posted the info below on the Ju-ply one: Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

Haven’t our historical hurricanes been during slow and below average years? I need something to grab onto because the Atlantic is as barren as a 60 year old British midwife right now.

I may be wrong but I think you are thinking of "How The World Ends"...

And 90 seconds later it is done.

I like what I see. Typically, set ups this potent in New England only occur every 10-15 years or so, going by our most sig tor events/outbreaks. This qualifies as one IMHO, and it has been 15 years since 6/1/11. Large-scale, this is not simply NW flow ring of fire event like we had on 7/1. There is a very strong 500 low over central Quebec w/ a center that gets as low as 543 dm, which is quite impressive for July. This is *true* NW flow, the best kind for the big svr here. EML solid up to 8 C/km. Timing looks absolute best for srn Quebec, but NNE should do very well. Noted CAPE fcst as high as 4100 on HRRR near YUL Tue aftn and 0-6km shear is more than enough for mean supercells. It is not as high as it was on 6/18, but we were severely lacking in CAPE and there was no EML, so things are more than compensated here for meaty storms and "Scott spinners." A few things of note that remind me of 7/10/1989. 1) Very strong WAA prior to the event, Look at the 12z NAM 1000-500 thk 14/12z to 15/00z for BOS, it jumps from 574 to 584! 2) I attached the 12z NAM valid 15/00z. Look at the orientation of the very high thk, a W-E axis. This is exactly how it looked on 7/10/1989, except the axis was about 100 mi farther S. For that event, it was capped from just S of NYC and S. So where SPC has the sharp cut off of storms in central New England makes sense 100%. If I had to find a negative, the 925 mb winds and 0-1 km shear could be higher, at least during the daylight hours, but by 00z, it is more than enough low-level shear for spinners. However, diurnal stabilization of the BL may limit solid spinners potential in New England. But the 18z HRRR is still showing small areas over 200 0-3 km CAPE 00/01z across far NNE, which is more than enough for solid low-level stretching and thus spinners. Historically, it is very rare for New England to get sig tor after dark (F2/EF2+). One thing that is almost certain, unreal LTG shows coming for ME/NH/VT Tue evening/overnight. better than event on 7/1. EMLs "like" to do that! The fact SPC has a hatched area for tors is not that common in New England, *and* wind/hail are also hatched for the full gamut of a big svr event! Updraft helicity swaths are nasty on the HRRR, again, rare to be this intense here. SCP and SIGTOR parameters are about as high as you will ever see them in the NEUS. Interesting the storms at first look more linear during the day on the HRRR, but become somewhat more discrete by sunset. This is likely due to the improving shear profiles at low-levels, so tor risk appears good at this later time. Really not much more to say. Slicing and dicing the models down at this point is not that much use. This is a high-end set up. Everything is there for a big event. Intense tstms are a virtual guarantee, just the question is the extent of the spinners overall in srn Quebec and NNE.

It’s actually raining a bit…

87F/DP 62F at 4:25pm AccuWeather going 101F on Wednesday...

There is this brief series done by the History Channel called "Doomsday". 10 episodes, each about a different way we could go extinct. One of the 10 was based on the Carrington event. I actually love the series, purely for entertainment. Its well done in terms of entertainment and "fear" factor. Every now and then I'll fall asleep listening to the series and sometimes I actually dream that I am immersed in whatever the scenario is The 10 are: Hyper volcano eruption (or something along those lines) Gamma Ray burst Earth ends up out of orbit and is swallowed by the sun Black hole swallows the moon and Earth Aliens solar storm Nuclear war Asteroid Earth hit by a rogue planet can't remember the last one

Picked up .4 from a small but heavy shower moving east to west. Lots of loud thunder and cloud to ground lightning in it.

Both great examples of how the current internet/Twitter/X/Youtube hype focuses on the worst case scenarios and is ultimately a detriment to any real cause. Who gives a crap about CC when a Carrington event or super caldera eruption is in the cards? Certainly not Joe Sixpack who's toiling away at some menial job to keep the lights on and maybe bring the family to McDonald's on the weekend.

Afternoon AFD from GYX. Tomorrow evening might get interesting. Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5. I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area. Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME and approaching southern NH. A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front approaching the International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening. Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place, further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse rates aloft. Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph. In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain possible. For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is possible overnight. This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas, which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to falling trees.

GDM has nothing! Pretty sensitive setup it seems.

I am writing from the Cincinnati area. The humidity of last week has diminished quite a bit, but I glanced at the radar and saw convective storms developing and sweeping westwards from West Virginia into the Moorehead, Kentucky area. The high pressure to the north must be tremendous to be getting moisture to move westward down there. It's interesting to watch and caught my eye. Here in the Ohio Valley, it looks clear though the entire week.

102 in thunder bay, 59 across the lake... nature's AC

Nothing to cope about. Just a lot of these cities have records going back at least 100 years, some into the 1800s. Just funny to see one that's only 1948. You can go back to being a Chicago lurker after your snipe attempt.

Or how about a Yosemite caldera eruption. That would be fun.

That would have been one hell of a day in the modern age

This is old news by now but there was quite a bit of damage with those holiday weekend storms. No wonder it took so long to get the power back. Next hurricane of substance that blows through the tri-state is going to be a big problem. Some people around my part of NJ were without power for a week. Something that affects the entire area with 60-80 mph winds is going to be a nightmare in terms of power outages. Not a matter of if but when.