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Just because we don’t agree on how to interpret temperatures and sky cover doesn’t mean we aren’t friends. Go UCONN!

So this isn't a weaker version of a system progged over a week ago?

12/09/05 is my number 1 weather experience and I have been on a successful tornado chase. Being 15 walking home from school in the middle of the road because I couldn’t see 20’ in front with non-stop CGs will be hard to top. Perhaps a hurricane Michael style eye or a Manchester, SD type tornado.

Thanks. Ya we’ve noted this too. I tried to fire out wha it was but it’s as if they set the freezing temp to 35 instead of 32 or something. It defaults anything close to snow.

Massive KU, just get it to phase 6 hours earlier , signal has been there but we have a problem getting these signals to hold . Seems like the AI models love to hold a signal in the 8-12 day range then lose it and never bring it back. This one is within day 8..

Depends what you’re expecting. If you’re expecting plowable or more, it’ll likely be a bust. If you’re expecting brush off your car, you’ll probably be happy.

No idea lol. At some point I will be looking to upgrade. Getting close to 120k miles.

OMG what?!?! That’s insanity.

Sorry I shouldn’t me rude. Your posts are in good faith. But sometimes you do need to do some research to make sure your ideas are valid. The issue here is that your lumping all suppressed storms to our south into one boat. But they don’t all hit the same place! You’re acting like we would magically get every storm to our south now in this future scenario. But we wouldn’t. There is still a huge range to our south. Some hit Richmond. Some hit Va beach. Some Raleigh. Some charlotte. Atlanta. One even hit new orleasn and northern Florida! You’re lumping them all together. We still would only get some of those! I think what you perceive and is bugging you is that we aren’t really doing as much better than places to our south as we should. That there might be some truth to. Because we are at like 55% of normal over the past 10 years and places down there are closer to normal because they were never supposed to get much snow and if they get a few storms over 10 years the are where they belong! What’s happening is we are falling south of the “where it snows regularly” line more often. Once you get south or a certain point snow becomes a huge anomaly and very random and sporadic. A fluke. Even more so than it already was for us! Analogs and patterns mean even less because even in a great pattern snow is unlikely. You just need to get crazy lucky. It’s not something I’d waste time tracking. But lately we’ve been in that same boat. Our climo the last 10 years is about what Richmond’s was 50 years ago! Snow had been a fluke sporadic anomaly here recently. And you sense this “why aren’t we doing way way better than Richmond or Raleigh instead of just marginally better and you’re right we should be. But the climate zones are shifting north and we are sliding into the “snow isn’t normal it’s a fluke anomaly that only happens rarely” zone.

Calling a bust before a storm starts Weenie

Trying to get it back lol. Models are crazy

Nice Euro skynet run at 18z…can we lock in next Sunday?

you said busy last time. and it came back lol

Did a little tour of east central Vermont today. What a beautiful day for outdoor activities.

Bust

The WB Euro AIFS ensemble means are often the snowiest of the ens means due to having a true snowy bias likely resulting from an algorithm issue at WB although I suppose the issue could be internal at ECMWF (doubtful). This is most easily exhibited by the numerous times (every run) when individual members have blobs of heavy snow well out over the Gulf/Atlantic when temperatures are in the 60s-70s. Even Bastardi has noted this oddity about his company’s own Euro AIFS snow maps! These blobs even show up on all of the ens means although obviously lighter. Notice that no other end snow maps have this oddity. (This isn’t the first issue I’ve seen with WB maps by the way. For example, their Euro Weekly 2m maps are colder than the ecmwf in-house maps.) Example: member 46 (far right) getting heavy snow during hours 60-66 (6Z to 12Z on 1/22/26) on the 18Z 1/19/26 run 200 miles out into the Gulf while temperatures are above normal (70s)! While laughable, it is more importantly indicative of a significant snowy bias on its maps: Actually, this can be seen in subtropical regions throughout the globe. It even shows snow blobs now in Australia during their summer, for example!

Meh-vent.

@bncho he is baiting you dude. Please delete that. They want you to engage in the more political aspects so they can get the whole discussion shut down. Besides what he said is SOOO stupid nothing you say will matter it will go way over his head!

Euro is so frustrating since w heavier precip we’d probably get snow even into the metros w surface temps of 34

Can't win em all.

So what's going on, nice rainy Sunday? Any garbage time flakes?

notice how every system is a big one then as the event gets closer it just gets weaker 90% of the time

little to no accumulation is what they love the best fav phrase lol

Off to Gampel for the game tonight . Enjoy the night

It’ll be a nice refresher hopefully and make the black ice piles white again for a day or two.