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Just want to say…it’s been a pleasure tracking this one with all of you. Tracking (and NAM’ing) is one of my favorite parts of the storm experience. When we’re all shoveling and annoyingly digging out, I’ll remember the fun of the tracking!

Stumbled onto Kyw radio accu weather forecast 6-10" for Philly ?

Glad you are heading back Jerry. While it can't make up for you missing '78, hopefully it comes reasonably close for you, and us. After all these years, '78 is still the measuring stick, let's get close to it!

Instead of a K U in Charlottesville this winter, we keep getting a big F U

For sure! That norlun feature is going to be pretty incredible. I hope you and the WV/Winchester/South-Central PA peeps can catch it if the models have that correctly placed. Easy 1+”/hr rates expected in that thing.

Given the big winds forecast for this upcoming storm, some points of reference for winds for the region's biggest non-tropical storms, at least in recent decades. This is not all-inclusive, just what I recall off-hand. One note on the data, standard wind measurements are typically taken w/ the anemometer 10 m (33 ft) above the ground. That's how it is at airports for official NWS/FAA observations. However, at many other wx stations, such as NWS/NOS/privately-run marine sites or personal wx stations, the heights can vary a lot. Obviously, the higher the anemometer elevation from ground level, the higher the winds. The highest recorded gust I know of in the last 50 years at an official NWS/FAA site is 108 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory (MQE) on 3/29/1984. A gust of 97 mph was recorded on Martha's Vineyard in this storm. Truro MA gusted to 113 mph on 10/21/2021. 110 mph gust at Scituate MA 2/6/1978. Highest gust recorded at an NWS/FAA location for this storm was 93 mph at Chatham MA (CHH). Block Island gusted to 105 mph on 12/5/2005. A gust to 101 mph occurred at Wellfleet MA from this same storm. A gust to 97 mph at Falmouth MA (FMH) occurred on 4/19/1997. Seabrook NH gusted to 94 mph 2/25/2010. On this same day, Isles of Shoals (IOSN3) gusted to 91 mph. For BOS, the highest gust recorded for any type of storm since 1954 is 81 mph on 3/13/1993. BOS gusted to 79 mph on 2/6/1978 and 78 mph on 12/11/1992. PWM highest gust on record (since 1940) was set on 2/25/2010 w/ 78 mph, but it may have been higher since there was a power failure. Going back to the late 19th century, the greatest non-hurricane storm w/ the highest winds was "The Great Appalachian Storm" Nov 24-26, 1950. This was an inside runner for New England, so extraordinarily strong southerly winds occurred. What was most remarkable was the gust to 110 mph at Concord NH. Hartford CT had sustained winds of 70 mph w/ a peak gust of 100 mph. Such high wind values are exceptional for inland locations that are not elevated!

High is almost identical at 1046-48, Low should be stronger at 984 vs 968-70 for this one!

i hope so. i certainly wasn't expecting a WSW this when I woke up, so i guess anything could happen.

GFS surface temps

Probably because you’re just outside the CCB and getting the subsidence. My snow, at least per gfs kuchie, is a combo of accumulating daytime snow (thank you elevation) and being on or in edge of CCB later

We desperately need something to work out up here, snowmobile trails are getting down to dirt cause of all the traffic and school vacation week, besides that 12 inches we got haven't even sniffed 3 inches for a month up here. I'm hoping 8-10 inches total for all of next week and by next Saturday we can get things back into shape

GFS did tighten the western edge again

Man the IVT soundings on the NAM are nasty

Damn. MU is lock and step with me. 3-6" for all of us and he doesn't go up in amounts until you get into extreme eastern Chester County. Seems quite confident we'll all be in the subsidence zone.

I just passed one of the electronic highway message boards and it read “wicked big storm coming Sunday night prepare now”

mirrors 1978 blizzard

10:1 kuchera

The issue is they're all cutting back. Plus the closer in we get to go time, each model run is is more accurate than the last. It's not like having a bad run 5 days before the storm. It's supposed to start snowing in 24 hrs.

Great writeup in your WPC analysis, and great thoughts! I believe some pages back in this thread, someone posted the EC ensembles and they were clearly clustered more to the west and the deterministic was on the eastern end of the spread as you mention. Don't know if anyone posted the GEFS (if that's relevant), whether they're farther west than the deterministic GFS, etc.

GFS

Just in that eastern edge! Hopefully it'll tick a hair west at gametime

Does the NWS afd now not do coastal flooding details? They used to do tides section near hydrology stufg

Picked up 3 Floyds Arctic Panzer Wolf Imperial IPA, felt fitting. I’m pumped for tomorrow night. Could be hours of thunder snow.

GEFS slightly snowier at 18z over 12z lol .