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Confluence to the NE of Maine and lower heights out ahead is a no bueno.

Looks pretty bad at h5. Focus on that first, surface is practically meaningless this far out.

Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low.

NAM would be pretty significant impact for RT 2 corridor. 4”-6” thump followed by freezing rain:

Yup just one of the models

NAM first up

Compares to the GFS at the same range its much flatter or slower.

It's the long range nam doesn't mean anything yet.

There are going to be some Low CAPE/high shear showers and thunderstorms for N. Illinois to N. Ohio. The SPC has a slight risk of tornadoes for the lower Ohio Valley, which is south of the areas just mentioned. Convection-allowing models vary on coverage and placement of rain showers.

Fridays rain should put a big dent in it

First up NAM end of run.

A bald man in Tolland stirs in his sleep…

Praying for good 0z

Off to a bad start...WB 12K NAM at 7am Sunday is a dud; nothing like the GFS at 18Z.

Nam warmest of all guidance but some nice hang back snows Saturday.

Yikes

If only the storms would happen in the mid term it would be spot on, But alas.

Not in tonight's (non) event.

I will stay up for the EURO if the early 0Z suites continue to improve...agree writing on the wall if the ICON/GFS/CMC fizzle at 0Z.

What NorthHills said. In addition, dewpoints are relatively high (mid 50s). So, even with clear skies, the high RH (70%+) isn’t conducive for strong radiational cooling as the water vapor acts as a blanket (kind of what you were speculating).

00z runs of the gfs cmc and icon will be telling. They're either going to trend 50 miles nw and put us back in the game or 50 miles SE and take us out of it. I'm fully prepared for the later of the two.

This thing died out for almost everyone in upstate NY and New England. Hope the Friday event doesn't for their sake. Looks like we're a hair too south in HV for significant Friday snow.

NAM is usually good at finding the warm tongues.

We are all hoping that that GFS/CMC combo is correct; but the current blend forecast keeps the coastal too far east to hit areas west of the Bay. The trough coming in from the west could give areas west of the Bay a light event. Reality sucks but it is what it is. Hopefully the NBM will look better by 0Z tomorrow.