All Activity

Another poor timing cold front limiting rain

34 currently at the house.

.58" of rain here in Maytown.

0.3” total, nice little event.

43.0 this morning so far. I had a 39.9 last week, so not my coldest, but still a good Autumn chill.

.30 rain here.

Regardless of day to day changes, if we don’t start to see upward wave fluxes and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen once we get into November

Over head now, little if any wind. About .20” so far

Eps forecast on that tweet was from 10/18. The 10/19 forecast loses most of the above normal mean winds and keeps winds below normal 25+ days over the 40 day forecast. Of course, it'll change again today.

Another case of the record heat missing to our north. So Massena was able to tie their October record of 4 days reaching 80° or higher. Their average max this month is +7.1° with the min at 0.0°. RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MASSENA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY ON 10/19/25. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 2007. WEATHER RECORDS FOR MASSENA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KMSS) IN NY DATE BACK TO 1949. && ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). Time Series Summary for MASSENA INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Number of 80° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 4 12 - 2023 4 0 3 2005 3 0

I was expecting at least a quarter inch of rain and got nothing so far.

Was hoping to wake up to something this morning and with the successive bands, had 0.14" after the first, then a total of 0.17" after the 2nd, and finished up with a total of 0.20" with the last band, finally sending me over the 1" mark for the month at post time (1.13"). It was oddly warm and humid yesterday and I made it up to 75 after a 49 low and dps in the 60s as I was planting some bulbs for spring. I am currently at my low for the morning of 53 and a 68 just before 1 am may end up being my high for today.

.32 of rain in Marysville.

Meh. Glad for the rain though.

Yeah, we did get the stronger -WPO in February. But the Pacific Jet undercut it leading to the stronger Southeast ridge and Great Lakes storm track. Our last solid winter month from ACY to BOS was January 2022 which featured a -2.1 WPO and a +TNH. The +TNH last January had interference from the Pacific Jet. So the heights in the WPO region were much lower due to the Pacific Jet sending a stream of disturbances into the region lowering heights. So the WPO finished January +0.2. Getting a -WPO and +TNH during the same month been a challenge with the faster Pacific Jet. Would like to see if we could at least pull off that feat at least one month in the coming years potentially allowing more of benchmark track over that month like we saw briefly for January 2022. That month the Pacific Jet was able to back off with the great snows from ACY to ISP to BOS.

39 here this morning with a bit of a breeze. Coldest of the season.

The yellows are the best this year...This one seems to have disappeared after I posted it yesterday. The backyard.

We ran out of coffee this morning. Imagine my surprise at 5:30. Talk about spooky season. There will be a Costco run this evening to make sure this never happens again. Then stepping outside to a humid tropical feel was my true wake up this morning!

Gonna rain. Feels like a summer morning.

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture. Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years. But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued. It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought.

Cruel, cruel SE winds already warmed things up. We fell to 51 and I was so happy. Then that pesky southeast trade wind started up and warmed us to 65 already! Damn that subtropical high from Hell! It is like the damn Energizer Bunny. It just keeps going, and going, and going............

51F at 6:14 am 0.48” of rain .

32 this morning in Wolf. 26 on Mt. Mitchell. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Awt

36.6 this morning! .