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I am with you. Modeling has been atrocious warm or cold

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be. I will start off with a MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast. Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days. Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late). Your template if you want to use it MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___" Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry. MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F). but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus. DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th). Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed. ___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total.

i don't think we will warm much lol if guidance latches onto a mild spell <D7, i'll look more closely

This one feels like a loser for anything beyond a trace for just about anyone not on a mountain. Hope I’m wrong!

nah, 23.6° on the 21st here, I'm curious what the record is in this area for below freezing

The torch warm up is completely muted by 18z GEFS

Ugh. Caps already down 1-0 in a game they really need to win.

I know you people don’t like facts and science so I’ll give it to you. That period was very mild with days of +10 to 15. So yeah it was very mild. Im not sure why you are putting words in my mouth about it not being cold. Never said that. But to think somehow we just ignore multiple models and signals for milder weather because its been cold is just ridiculous.

A friend of mine took this picture of Buzzards Bay from New Silver Beach today.

I am very confident our pre season call that EOR ends 150% and WOR 125% of snow avg remains on track..

Clear as a bell and 32 here. I mean like really clear

And then a suppressed event a day later which Is probably a good sign

36/27 with light flurries here at Massanutten.

Dang Scoots…GL in the ring.

Yes. And this all we’ve been saying. Stop f’n nitpicking. The thaw in Jan wasn’t a torch by any means, but sure, it warmed. Nobody ever said it didn’t. But before and after it’s been an frieken ice box! You gonna argue that? And that’s been the tenor. The tenor is the long term look/feel..and the look/and feel has been dam cold. You’re a negative Nellie always looking for something to nitpick…especially for someone who just got two feet of snow. After Valentine’s Day is clown range. We’ll see how that looks next week.

Huh??? did I miss something?

33° and light snow here in Augusta County.

Aching for spring myself. Someone needs to put how much snow fell post 2/6 on all these years. I see biggies for the most part but a couple ratters too

Yes. That's due to shortening wave lengths. EPO becomes relatively more important.

That’s not warm and not viable

Those Shreveport to Atlanta lows are gold in Naperville, Ill

wowzers. Looks like a one-storm winter

Yup... pretty stupid post if you ask me

Today was really nice. Got up into the 20s at most elevations. I could go for more of that. Felt comfortable out there for once lol. Been over a week since the last snowfall but I’ve still got my spots for fresh tracks.