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Wind seems far less than expected.

Most of the misleading information I see comes from fossil fuel and utility incumbents. For instance, per top link below, the "expense" of additional baseline power to backstop renewables is a fossil fuel fallacy. Renewables are becoming cheaper. Not everywhere and in every application; but, the long term trend is clear. In the future fossil fuels will be less competitive than they are today. Its not only renewables. A number of key energy technologies are on long-term improvement curves: batteries, EV, heat pumps etc. They work together to make energy generation, storage, transmission and use cheaper and more efficient. Meanwhile fossil fuel use is a mature technology; that uses a diminishing resource; and, that carries geopolitical and climate risk that isn't baked into the price. https://www.electrotech-revolution.com/p/renewables-allow-us-to-pay-less-not https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://www.electrotech-revolution.com/p/what-is-electrotech-and-what-will

Had some very heavy rains around 3am on/off for about an hour or so. Winds really blowing too.

Yup. Sweet radar look. Rare, it looks as modeled.

Nice defo

Anyone still hoping for arctic cold and snowstorms are trying to get blood from a stone at this point. This winter is cooked, been cooked. Done, over, finished, history, fat lady has sung and went home, stick a fork in it, bring down the curtain, it’s over Johnny, goodnight and goodbye, adios, dead, in the grave, RIP. A former winter…..

Hoping these bust scenarios are true I don’t need any massive trees onto my house.

Just took my dogs outside. It is nasty out there. The wind’s blowing in such a way where the deck door was almost snowed in; and the gusts are whipping up little brief “snownados” all over. Good luck to anyone measuring & traveling out here. I’m typically a big snow guy, but this on March 16th may be a little…more than I need?

Hm. Current radar shows the line over Charleston WV. Doing some math based on its 40mph speed it’d hit Cvill at 10am. Wonder if the HRRR 0z will be right

Woke up at 3:21 to some heavy rain, loud thunder and lots of lightning. Picked up .71" of rain before I left for work at 5. Itbqas still raining soIm curious what they toral will be. Almost half inch was in the first 20 minutes. Rain has picked up pretty good again at 5:20. Pretty good soaker coming down at VW. About to get wet. [emoji38] Left my umbrella at home. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Just saw lightning for the first time in forever. Currently dumping .25 inch per hour rates.

@SEwakenosnowforuhere is the thread.

We have a storm thread that is dedicated to severe weather. It's not pinned so you have to scroll down.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-025-027-035-045-059-071-075-087-089- 097-099-109-111-113-115-119-121-149-159-161-171-173-175-179-189- 193-197-199-161500- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0064.260316T0840Z-260316T1500Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CABARRUS CALDWELL CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK ROWAN RUTHERFORD SURRY SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA UNION WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY

Severe Thunderstorm warnings for the SW mountains.

Squall line matching forward. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

At 4:27am there's no shortage of blips going up in the warm sector off to our south and west They'll definitely be coming into our vicinity this morning and beyond if they don't wane. Whether or not they'll help to stabilize or become something that we don't want to see is something i'll let up the professionals on this day. Things pobably needs to play out a little longer and the sun needs to come up before anyone really knows anyway.

Euro squashed the storm.

Being in the warm sector this time locally really sucked, got a severe warning but the winds stayed subsevere

0z GFS

The stuff just north of Atlanta looks even heavier but I don't know if there is sleet mixed in. Regardless the stuff at Onaway has to be 4 inch/ hr stuff

I hiked one of tornado trails as a kid with my older sister. I don't exactly remember the year but she will. I believe it was 88 or 89 and the trail was still very obvious. I have pictures of the trails and myself in front of the plaques there. I will eventually scan and post. I initially stated that it was the Albion tornado trail but that is not correct.I do know it was near the town of Albion and was a destination to hike the trails.

0z CSU-MLP guidance is an uptick from the 12z run yesterday.

Still trying to gauge the degree of which the severe potential gets realized tomorrow. High res guidance seems to be tightening the window when the best shear coincides with the surge of some modest CAPE into the Sus Valley, more in the late morning/early afternoon. HRRR looked like it was toying around with some discrete and/or quasi linear convection during that timeframe, while the 3k NAM doesn’t have much at all until the frontal passage. FROPA looked slated for roughly the 4-8pm timeframe west to east in C-PA. Discrete development out ahead depends on if there’s any kind of ample daytime heating via some breaks in the clouds, something I’m not quite sure happens in earnest in PA. Line with the FROPA will be more purely dynamics driven, but we’ll have to see how well it gets organized Also lost in all the attention to the severe is energy rounding the base of the trough during tomorrow generating a secondary wave of heavier precip riding up behind the front. So suddenly it looks quite snowy in at least the western half of PA early to mid Mon evening. This could drive a changeover to a period of snow all the way into the Sus Valley. Given the broad model support I’d be surprised if CTP didn’t at least headline the Laurels and north central Alleghenies for advisories. There’s support for the I-99 corridor as well. That will also be interesting to watch evolve tomorrow in addition to the severe threat. GFS vs Euro 3k NAM vs RGEM

The old two mile wide long track ef4 going over the absolute most mountainous terrain in Pennsylvania like it was Alabama. If you ever get a chance to go look at some of the re-analysis anamoly for that day in a zoomed in fashion. The amount of absolute bonger values you get actually would almost make that tornado feel inevitable. It's that storm and the ef3 plus damage they found on mountains out west above 10000 feet that makes me laugh when people say they're safe because of the terrain they're in. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk