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Maybe we can get lucky like the old days and pull of a Feb 7 2021 weenie band Sunday/Monday https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-7-2021

Yes, For sure. That’s the random/luck factor. Back in the 80’s, it was this set up all the time…get worse as we closed in-you could practically guarantee it. Then that tide turned in the 90’s, and really went the opposite way in 2000’s/2010’s, where almost every system trended better as it closed in. And now we back again(and have been for the last 4 years) to the 80’s crap of trending everything worse. As Ray said, it’s gonna change, it always does, just a matter of when.

perfect rush hour timing on this one too

NW Indiana about to get shellacked .

Big Meadows at around 3,400'. Almost got stuck there in an early "freak" snowstorm in 10/78. Crazy, crazy time getting off the mts in snow and sleet.

True. The maga drought isn't helping. The Shenandoah mountains have been a tinder box the past couple visits I've made out there. I wanted to climb Stoney Man in the snow this winter but that hasn't happened.

one day when nws offices figure the snow squall warning thing out, they’ll issue one for instances such as this.

Makes sense. if you over-amp the -epo in the long range and then deamplify, the cold comes east rather than dig for gold in the west.

Might be able to pull off a inch or so here Saturday

Hard to get snow without some moisture. My yard has been below normal for annual precipitation for the past 6 years. Same at HGR.

It's mind blowing honestly. You'd think just being higher elevation would mean at least some snow. What happened to high elevation snows on out mountains? That's been nonexistent forever.

I think it's settled. You need to sell your place.

Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1932) NYC: 70 (1932) LGA: 64 (1995) JFK: 60 (1950) Lows: EWR: 7 (1957) NYC: -5 (1914) LGA: 7 (1988) JFK: 5 (1988) Historical: 1831: The greatest snowstorm recorded in American history until this time occurred from Georgia to the northeast and west to the Ohio Valley. Gettysburg, PA reported 30 inches and Pittsburgh, PA recorded 22 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1863 - The greatest snowstorm of record for Cincinnati OH commenced, and a day later twenty inches of snow covered the ground. That total has remained far above the modern day record for Cincinnati of eleven inches of snow in one storm. (David Ludlum) 1882 - Southern California's greatest snow occurred on this date. Fifteen inches blanketed San Bernardino, and even San Diego reported a trace of snow. (David Ludlum) 1888: The temperature in Eureka, CA fell to 20F as a cold spell affected the Golden State. The temperature at San Francisco dropped to 29F. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1912: This was the last month that double digit sub-zero temperatures were recorded in Washington, DC. The minimum temperature for the date is -13°F. in Washington, DC and at College Park, Md. The temperature fell to an incredible low reading of 26 degrees below zero. The Great Cold Wave of January 1912 a record cold wave settled across the South to the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the extremely cold temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic included: Bayard, WV: -30°, Hagerstown, MD: -27°, College Park, MD: -26°, Lincoln, VA: -25°, Dale Enterprises near Harrisonburg, VA: -25°, Frederick, MD: -21°, Culpeper, VA: -20°, Laurel, MD: -19°, Lost City, WV: -14°, Washington, DC: -13°, Fredericksburg, VA: -11°, Baltimore, MD: -2°. Other locations that reported record low temperatures for the date included: Williamsport, PA: -17°, Harrisburg, PA: -14°, Hartford, CT: -12°, Elkins, WV: -12°, Huntington, WV: -12°, Avoca, PA: -10°, Roanoke, VA: -8°, Lynchburg, VA: -7°, Providence, RI: -6°, Dayton, OH: -4°, Tulsa, OK: -3°, Baltimore, MD: -2°, Charleston, WV: -2°, Richmond, VA: -1°, New York (Central Park), NY: 2°, Philadelphia, PA: 2°, Greensboro, NC: 3°, Raleigh, NC: 6°, Charlotte, NC: 7°, Columbia, SC: 10°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 10°, Athens, GA: 15°, Waco, TX: 16° and Austin, TX: 18 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1916: Locations from the northern Plains to the deep south reported record low temperatures for the date including: Watertown, SD: -38°, Aberdeen, SD: -36°, Grand Forks, ND: -35°, Mobridge, SD: -35°, Timber Lake, SD: -31°, Sioux Falls, SD: -31°, Wheaton, SD: -28°, Waterloo, IA: -26°, Kennebec, SD: -24 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1932: The home of a 13 member family in Lexington, TN was destroyed by a tornado. 10 fatalities resulted. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1952: Glaze, Sleet and Ice storm across Minnesota from St Cloud south into Iowa. 1,100 Northwestern Bell telephone wires down. The Buffalo Ridge in the Pipestone area the hardest hit with ¾ inches of solid ice on Northern State Power wires with icicles to 3 inches. Northwestern Bell reported ice to 1 ½ inches of ice on their wires in the same area. Thunder and a shower of ice pellets accompanied the storm in New Ulm and Mankato. Minneapolis General Hospital treated 81 people, victims of falls on icy streets. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: In Loma, Montana, the temperature soared from 54 degrees below zero to 49 degrees above zero on January 14-15, 1972. The 103-degree change is the greatest ever recorded in the world for a 24 hour period. 1882: Snow fell in southern California, with the highest amount of 15 inches at San Bernardino. Three feet of snow fell in Campo over four days and produced 8-foot drifts in spots. Two to five inches fell in outlying San Diego, including four inches along Poway Grade, 3 inches at El Cajon, and one inch in Poway. Five inches fell in Riverside. Light snow fell in Del Mar. Snowflakes fell but did not stick at San Diego Lindbergh Field. Birds and livestock were killed, telegraph lines were knocked down, and citrus crops were damaged. 1974: Severe flooding in Idaho was the result of unseasonably warm temperatures, Chinook winds and heavy rains. The flooding is regarded to be the worst weather disaster in the history of the state. Damage totaled $50 million. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1979 - Chicago, IL, was in the midst of their second heaviest snow of record as, in thirty hours, the city was buried under 20.7 inches of snow. The twenty-nine inch snow cover following the storm was an all-time record for Chicago. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. By evening blustery northwest winds and temperatures near zero at Grand Forks ND were producing wind chill readings of 50 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) 1988 - A powerful Pacific storm produced rain and high winds in the western U.S. In Nevada, a wind gust to 90 mph at Reno was an all-time record for that location, and wind gusts reached 106 mph southwest of Reno. A wind gust to 94 mph was recorded at nearby Windy Hill. Rainfall totals in Oregon ranged up to six inches at Wilson River. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A winter storm spread snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the northeastern U.S. Freezing rain in West Virginia caused fifteen traffic accidents in just a few minutes west of Charleston. Tennessee was deluged with up to 7.5 inches of rain. Two inches of rain near Clarksville TN left water in the streets as high as car doors. 1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. blanketed the mountains of southwest Utah with 18 to 24 inches of snow, while sunshine and strong southerly winds helped temperatures warm into the 60s in the Central Plains Region. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 63 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: A low pressure area deepened 18 millibars (0.71 inches of mercury) in only 12 hours and bottomed out at 969 millibars (28.62 inches of mercury) as it tracked from the Tennessee Valley to northern New York state. It produced quite a range of nasty weather. Heavy snow with blizzard conditions prevailed in Ohio and eastern Michigan. Detroit, MI reported thunder and lightning with heavy snow and received a total of 11 inches, their biggest single storm snowfall in nearly 10 years. An unusual severe weather outbreak for the time of the year so far north occurred in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeastern New York. Tornadoes touched down at Moosic and Lumberville, PA. Dime size hail fell at Orange, NJ and thunderstorm winds gusted to 87 mph at Gettysburg, PA. Small hail fell at Weather Service Office in Newark, NJ, the first time hail had ever fallen at this location in January. Emmitsburg, MD reported a wind gust of 88 mph. Rare January thunderstorm outbreak in DC area 40-50mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: In Washington State, freezing fog and freezing drizzle enveloped much of the Inland Northwest during 13-23 January 2009. The area most affected by this was the high plateau region along Highway 2 between Wenatchee and Spokane. 2016: Hurricane Alex became the first January hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Alice in 1955.

Whats up with this? I've been watching the Shenandoah mountains for a snowing hiking trip for years. 4k plus mountains that never get snow. I've had more snow here alone the bay than Big Meadow at like 4500' elevation for the past 5 years.

I'm in Smithsburg just on the west side of the Catoctins. It's really hard to beleive how bad it's been since the start of the 21-22 season.

well, this was unexpected.

Does this bode well for Saturday? .

Solid Wednesday morning surprise. The kids are amped.

Earthlight also loves this pattern ahead.

Ocean City looks like it is going to win again in the medium range. Ever since I bought my place there it has snowed more there than in the Shenandoah Valley. Getting ridiculous.

to the pros and advanced, i have question... I've been following weather and i'm a weather geek since i was born clearly it's something I can't get away with. my question is why have the models gotten worse the last decade is say! I feel like models especially the euro used to be a much more useful for weather forecasting, not it's literally a bit or miss! like for instance this storm sunday leaning obviously for OTS solution but craving a big hit for all of us but most models are still wobbling!

Yeah. HGR to Frederick has been basically north Georgia for years. In the 90's that area was the Tug Hill of MD. I knew the lowlands wouldn't have winter this season because the past two winters had a short period of winter. My plan was to spend a lot of time this season hiking in the snow in the Catoctins. I've had more snow here near Annapolis then them this season.

WB 6Z EPS. Good luck eastern zones. The rest of us wait at least another week....

For western NC, the day 7-8 timeframe is of interest. And it has been for days on many models.

I’m referring to if Sunday night comes back. It would get snow back to the river and probably west of it