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  2. Go Kart Mozart
    What about the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast ensembles?
  3. Heisy started following Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026
  4. Heisy
    Hey all, you’re nc event few weeks back. Did the euro end up caving to other models inside 2 days or something? I feel like the gfs did well with it.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    In fairness almost all guidance has rain for the area thru 7-9PM sunday with temps crashing after that. Question remains how much precip is left after that time.
  6. Jersey_Snowhole
    I would tame expectations the dual low needs to be watched could it be the gfs is about to cave come 12z?
  7. Interstate
    Yea. I don’t why people need to be negative. If they don’t think it is not going to happen then why be here. Just to say you were right?
  8. Tatamy
    This is Mt. Holly’s high end forecast (10% chance of verification).
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looking at the SREFs, NAM, RGEM, ICON....those are all pretty significant run to run jumps with the coastal in the direction we want. Normally by this point in our fails we are already trending very much the opposite....
  11. Damage In Tolland
    They’ve been talking about getting rid of the NAM for five years and never do
  12. AccuChris
    This was the prior run at 03Z; so yeah its better lol .
  13. MJO812
    Check the 6z ukie. Its further west and rains lol
  14. weatherwiz
    Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? I'll be sure to shed a tear
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never realized that...
  16. weatherpruf
    just heard joe lundberg on 1010 saying the same thing; rt 1 in woodbridge closed both ways since this morning, what a mess. glad i'm retired. still got stuck in it at 630 on my way to walk; by 8 they were closing the northbound side as well. accident investigation. people can't drive in the rain, it seems. hope no one was killed.
  17. stormtracker
  18. weatherwiz
    Inclined to lean that way too. Haven't put a whole lot of effort into this until last night/this morning and looking at past models it does seem to be a bit of a trend in that way, at least short term. We can only hope 12z continues in this direction.
  19. nj2va
    Pouring
  20. Terpeast
    Probably time to start looking at cams for thermals now though
  21. dendrite
    NAMAI is over the accordion
  22. pasnownut
    do you have older panels to share? I'm assuming thats a change in the gooder direction?
  23. Damage In Tolland
    The srefs
  24. WxUSAF
    My god everyone was driving so slow…
  25. mahk_webstah
    I know that the SREF can’t be looked at individually, but it sure can be looked at from the perspective of trends. And doesn’t some of the stuff that feeds those models go into the NAM as well?
  26. dendrite
    I still think it helps more than hurts.
  27. EastonSN+
    Potential blip? Drastically different no longer longer goes to 7.
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