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I think in order to bring this far enough west, there would need to be a wholescale change with H5. Maybe more of a push with the western atlantic ridge, but without any Atlantic blocking, it's easy for this to slip offshore, especially when the trough is positively tilted

Hopefully we'll get something on the tail end of the cold snap.

To me this has been a slow bleed. Yes we had some great runs yesterday with the subpar models but thermals have been trending poorly for days. As others have noted, this isn’t a dynamic strong coastal low, so you’re not just going to wrap cold air in. It will be dynamic cooling we’re relying on and if you start at 38-40 at 10 am you’re in big trouble even if you get the precip

Webb has gone full weenie this winter

Flatter is the main trend seen so far. Makes sense given the progressive flow and has been the overall theme of the past few years. More times than not flatter, drier, and disorganized wins lately.

So at 18 notice just an ass hair bit of ridging out ahead vs 6z. It's noticeable, but nothing huge so far

This is literally insane. Every year we say it’s going to end

Scooter breaking down after getting called in the office after losing it on a junior employee?

GFS looks similar through 006.

Reggie is weak, but it also isn’t flying along. Someone would probably get 6” out of that look

Yesterday the GFS had around 6 inches of snow here. So far today it looks like I'll be lucky to see any snow and have cold rain instead. GFS is running now. Let's see if it folds.

I miss the days when it would just snow here and we didn’t need 5,731 things to go right for it to. GSP hasn’t seen an inch of snow now in 1,459 days. Yeesh.

GFS gonna show a snowstorm now watch lmao

Sign me up for Reggie. No issues here. Kev can have his inch of paste too.

It’s definitely starting to grab my interest again!! .

I thought it looked conducive early on for something bigger but whatevs…nobody should complain about a snowy weekend with a couple inches down.

It's been a groan fest for most of the decade east of the apps. TN Valley has been way more fortunate the past 5 years.

After the 1.20" of rain last week, my rate of fall leveled off a little. For a 7 day period from 12-19 to 12-26 , my water table dropped .73 Ft. For the 7 day period from 1-08 to 1-15 my water table only dropped .43 Ft. Glorious drought mitigation!!! 1.20" last week was 12% of rainfall needed.

So I guess this is the best storm Toronto has had in a decade. I'm not sure what any Canadian posters may have to say about this. I can't remember them ever boasting about 9.6" in the entire time AmericanWX has existed. and other storm reports of 6"-14.5" near Cleveland, 10"-20" by South Bend

And of course as soon as I get to Kingsport, it looks like something is trying to start up in the right area:

I’m away, glad I’m not missing much.

Still too much model variance to be confident in any solution. December 2017 might have track comps but wasn't that storm more amped? That low was stronger if I recall.

no high to the north and a front stalled to the west would be a recipe for rain