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For sure...but likely wind. I looked this AM when I saw those warmer temps streaking across Tenn. The general correlate to winds I think.

Will be awful if this verifies

I got this good feeling HH GooFus going to deliver. The NAM needs to be taken back behind the shed ASAP.

Very cool to see the micro climates showing. Also hoping I don't end up in a pocket of zr the entire event haha

It really is

Better here then the MA side they just got pants pulled on the NAM

Storm cancel. See yall in the long range thread

I'm going with your eyes. You do seem to live in a particularly snow starved area.

Getting drier on models too sadly

Fair hedge, IMO. Enough to scare people into taking it seriously, not too much to back off should sleetmageddon trends continue.

Updated LWX discussion tl;dr all systems go. Forecast stabilizing, bigly snow, some crust, watching bigly ice for southern zones. Freaking cold

IMG_7191.mov This was at the office in Burlington an hour ago.

NAM is definitely sleet on this sounding at 18z for RDU. Only area above freezing is a small sliver from 850-800mb

It would be funny (not) if this verifies.

I believe in Tom https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17NEQck89Q/

Then, that is very likely that is the mountain wave event. I looked pretty closely earlier today. Wicked downslope. Saw some gusts as high at 65mph on earlier models. That last "streak" usually works its way right up I26. I usually get a text from someone in Gray who says their house is 45 while I am in the upper 20s and low 30s. Bout thirty minutes later...it starts raining at my house. Hahah. Let's hope there isn't ice on those trees as @Holston_River_Ramblernoted earlier today....high winds and ice are a bad combo.

You also have two river valleys that cut through the mountains that the model is seeing and trying to leak some of North Carolina's CAD, French Broad and Nolichucky. Or at least I think that's a possibility

I'm not complaining at all. Finally a good daytime snow.

That may hurt in terms of lingering snow into Sunday Night/Monday but seems if the primary stays south of PA NYC stays mainly snow.

Next run Nam will double qpf because that’s what the Nam does model is trash.

We rarely get ice like this especially county wide. It's usually rain or snow not much ice around here.

We really don't want slower though. We need the precip to come while that confluence is still in the game. But I am not going to lose my shit over a NAM run.

The NAM is beautiful. I'd much rather have the thermals trend favorably and then figure out the precipitation distribution and intensity than the other way around.

The rrfs takes forever to erode the CAD between those downsloping hotspots. Over an inch of zr for my backyard.