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Trying to stay safe

1.5” at home so far. Snowing hard. 3” on upper mountain snow cam.

Chase tour runs April 3-12!

Evolution of winters around 32° and colder in NYC since the 1970s showing the expansion of warmth to our west.

Most models are flipping the rain in C/E MA over to snow tomorrow and then swing an inverted trough through during the evening bringing a N-S oriented band of snow.

Nws forcast discussion only concerning today's thunderstorms. Full discussion.is in the link at the bottom. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 348 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-230800- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 348 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. HAS CHANGED... * Little change in Sunday`s severe thunderstorm potential, built out more details pertaining to timing and threats. * Added mentions of icing potential Monday morning with dropping temperatures and freezing rain/drizzle potential across the Poconos. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across much of central Pennsylvania, highest chances south of the I-80 corridor. 2) Some icing potential Sunday night into Monday morning across portions of NE PA, slick spots possible for the Monday morning commute. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across much of central Pennsylvania, highest chances south of the I-80 corridor. Severe threat will be in play across much of central PA this afternoon and evening, with surface dewpoints across western Indiana surging towards the region. Recent HREF model guidance continues to indicate favorable probabilities (generally between 50-70%) for surface dewpoints reaching into the mid-to-upper 50s this afternoon for regions south of I-80. Bulk wind shear across the entire area by this time will also markedly increase which would support thunderstorm development to become organized enough to sustain themselves this afternoon/evening. There does remain some uncertainty with respect to CAPE with some recent hi-res model guidance indicating some breaks in the clouds across south-central Pennsylvania during the afternoon hours. If these solutions begin to pan out, this will allow for an uptick in instability, which would increase the severe threat. For reference, model solutions on the lower end of CAPE values top out between 500-600 J/kg while higher-end solutions of CAPE values exceed 1000 J/kg and push closer to the 1500 J/kg mark which would be much more sufficient for severe weather potential this afternoon. The spread is most pronounced across western portions of the forecast area, which is where model guidance is the most uncertain with respect to cloud cover later today. All of that being said, SPC has continued with the slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening for areas south of the I-80 corridor. Damaging wind threat continues to highlight areas mainly south of I-80 where there is there remains some higher potential for instability with ample shear in place. Fact cell movement will also give ample convective and kinematic energy to support the damaging wind threat this afternoon and into the evening. The hail threat across the southern half of Pennsylvania bears watching, with steep (7-7.5 C/km) 700-500mb lapse rates continuing to be signaled in recent hi-res model guidance. Large hail will be possible, as SPC outlines with their CIG1 hatching across the southern half of Pennsylvania. These hazards are expected to be focused in the 2PM to 9PM timeframe today, gradually spreading north-to-south throughout the afternoon and evening hours. In terms of the tornado threat across the region, there remains a non-zero threat across portions south of I-80. This threat is not as robust as the wind/hail threat. One of the main negatives with respect to the tornado threat read out in looking at model guidance for LCLs this afternoon. LCLs look to be relatively high with recent RAP model guidance indicating LCLs between 2000-3000m across the southern half of the region. The higher cloud bases will make it slightly harder (not impossible) to form, especially with low-level dry air in place. Lastly, flooding concerns given some locations have pushed slightly above one inch storm total rainfall amounts with more localized pockets of heavy rainfall. Highest rainfall signals appear across the southern tier, where recent Drought Monitor continues with D1-D2 drought. FFGs in this area would likely need to be exceeded in the one-hour timeframe, where we`re looking at slightly below one inch to exceed guidance. Given this, not foreseeing a lot of hydrological issues with this system especially given quick movement of storms. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Barely. 31.0° -SN Just a dusting so far. It almost looks mixy at times…hard to tell in the early light. The flakes are heavily rimed though.

Happy to say no snow here, though it probably is snowing at Brian’s

The last part of this post is where the truth lies.

31 with light snow

How has their urban development gone recently? Any population explosions to cause this?

Morning day 1 from SPC

Nothing to see there. Completely normal

Insane

My ideal would be 3 good months of winter weather with the rest of the year 70-75 degrees and only as much rain as necessary.

It's been like a summer evening. Still 72 at midnight at MLI, 70 at DVN.

Agreed. La Nina’s generally being drier east of the appalachians would probably be a true statement however. Northern stream dominated systems that get shredded by the mountains.

They were too warm the past 2 Winters in the east - but not before that. The past 10 Winters they actually have a slight cold bias in the east. Seasonal models played -PDO and PNA persistency, popping a SE ridge for the Winter, however if you extended these DJF forecasts the last 2 Winters to March, there is not as much colder than forecast verification. Despite what many believe, La Nina is actually not warmer in the NE. A west-based La nina may be, but La Nina's usually have cold Decembers and their main effect is on the north pacific high pressure (NPH), which is net neutral temps in the NE in the cold season. La Nina's and Strong El Nino's aren't both warm..

Yeah they are off with their conservative anomalies compared to the 91-20 average. It should realistically be +1F everywhere. To make that dark red is kind of weird, if you judge this last Winter's forecast on their temp anomalies, it was a huge bust in the Mountain west. They aren't in tune with where we are as a whole compared to the 91-20 average.

I still haven't seen any guidance today that suggests that SVR is possible in this area, except for those in southern PA or possibly western and northeastern MD. We might, however, get some thunder very early Monday. SPC might retain the MRGL where it already is for continuity, but the timing for most of us for this event is way off.

We are now a couple of storms deep into our current March series of what the weather modeling suggests will be about a half dozen systems. The resorts of the Northern Greens are generally reporting 6-12” of accumulation from the first couple of events, with the one that moved into the area yesterday being the most vigorous. Snowfall yesterday afternoon was in the 1-2”/hr. range even in the valleys, and for those out on the roads, driving was very difficult due to both the accumulations and the limited visibility in the intense snowfall. As of this morning, Bolton Valley was reporting 7 inches of new snow from the most recent storm, so I headed up to the hill for some turns. It was a beautiful late winter day out there at the resort, with temperatures in the 20s F, a mix of clouds and some sun, and occasional flurries as well. Compared to last weekend, the number of visitors wasn’t quite as high, since there weren’t as may events taking place at the resort; I arrived around opening time and parked in the upper backcountry lot, which was about half filled at that point. I started the first half of the morning with a lift-served ski session, and up at the main mountain neither the Vista Quad nor the Wilderness Double were running due to planned closures and mechanical work. I did take a couple of quick runs off the Mid Mountain Chair and the Snowflake Chair to get a feel for the snow. My snow analyses from the valley indicated that the storm had left about a half inch of liquid equivalent in the area, so it had the potential to be a moderate resurfacing of the slopes. Compared to what we picked up in the valley, the snow at elevation was notably drier, and it didn’t seem to bond as well to the subsurface as last weekend’s snow. At least up at Bolton’s elevations, it was cold throughout the storm, so there wasn’t any of that extra dense snow at the start to improve the interface with the old snow. Similar to last weekend, the storm made for a decent resurfacing of low and moderate-angle terrain, but it just didn’t hold up quite as well as last time. If you didn’t get first tracks, you were quickly down to the very firm subsurface, and the snow not bonding well meant that the skiing just wasn’t great with repeat traffic. Groomed surfaces were actually quite good though, so the snow being cold throughout the storm seemed to set it up for being tilled into the base extremely well. I ventured over to Timberline after those fist couple of runs, and that was definitely the place to be. Skier traffic was lighter and with the Timberline Quad in operation, there was just so much more terrain open that fresh tracks were plentiful. There was still the issue of the quality dropping off quickly on tracked terrain, but with the relatively low skier density, that took a while. I skied at Timberline until about midmorning when it became harder to find untracked snow on piste, and then I headed back to the main mountain for a tour on the Nordic and Backcountry Network. I spent the rest of the morning ski touring, and my route was in the 2,000 – 2,800’ elevation range from the lower Village area up past Bryant Cabin. There were a couple of water bars near the bottom of the Bryant Trail that had been blown out during last week’s thaw, but people have made bypass routes to quickly get around them. Even though the water bars have been filled in somewhat with new snow, with vertical gouges cut into 5 to 6 feet of snowpack, the physical dimension of the trenches make it just too awkward to try to climb down into them and then climb back out the other side. At least as of this morning, skier traffic on the Nordic and Backcountry Network had been very low, so you had access to untracked lines just about anywhere you went. To that point, I was breaking trail this morning as the first one out onto North Slope, so everything out past there was untracked. The powder skiing was great on low and moderate angle terrain. As PF mentioned, there wasn’t much elevation dependence with respect to new snow accumulations. I did find the very best depths with 7 to 8 inches of fresh powder up around 2,800’ above Bryant Cabin, but even down at the lower elevations of Timberline around 1,500’ there was a good 6 inches of new snow, and it was slightly denser so it may have had just about the same amount of liquid in it. All morning, people I talked to at the resort spoke about this next storm coming into the area tonight as being even bigger, so at least that’s the perception that the general skiing public seems to have. Some of the models do have twice as much liquid forecast for this next system, and there are projected accumulations through Monday morning to match, so we’ll see how this next one plays out.

Just continues and continues

Why is it always the GFS starting crap, bruh lol

In theme with the record shattering heat in the west-central US, I eye Flagstaff AZ to find they got to 29C/84F yesterday the 20th! The WUN avg shows 12C and the daily record of 21C...beat the record by 8C/18F+!?