All Activity

8° here this am...lowest so far, lots more to come!

Where are you? Dec 2020, Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 was major, depending on where you are of course.

I don't like it as much but it IS climo I guess.

06z was a better solution. 1/z got per its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso.

IT’S OVER!!!!

LOL... not willing to say how much of what, but willing to say "13%."

I think we have to be careful with rooting for the more amped looks. Cant let that warm nose sniff the area.

I'm not gonna say it's impossible because in this set up, they could get near 18 inches. What is impossible is them ever accurately measuring 18 inches. Especially in a long duration storm, they usually f up as only they can.

1.5 QPF at those temps is probably realistically pushing 20 inches out here. I still think we will mix out here as well though. Insane run.

Thank you. Seems like 6" - 10" from the bay to I-95, 8" - 12" west of there.

Keep me posted.

I've tracked storms long enough to 4 days is still an eternity for things to change. I will say given the wide swath of precip and depth of the cold there's enough wiggle room in all directions where I can't see that much going wrong with this.

It's like 6-8 hours after the precip rolls in that it switches over east of 95. Hours and hours and hours of ZR or sleet after

Mixing still seems to be kept at a minimum for the metros.

Does this storm look like PDII type snowfall, sleet,ZR distribution areawide?

the lack of a dynamic solution and it happening on the weekend knocks back the "major' implications around here. If so. Nice storm sure esp. if we're talking 18+ but nothing we haven't seen many times

EURO pops that 1044 over NY and the CAD is stronger this run than last nights run, that's for sure.

I’m surmising he wasn’t..

Dare I say.... Could be huge!!?

I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so Central park is getting 18 inches Boston 18 Wash in from DC 19 Philly 17 will post snowmap later

Someone asked last week about the northwest trend and I replied with…” it only trends northwest when we don’t want it to” .

Yeah I’m very skeptical of ZR vs sleet in the metro area. Doesn’t matter at this point, but will have to look at NAM soundings Friday if we still have a mixing risk.

Yeah clearly an error with the graphics, the transition zone is usually 70 miles. Could be bigger this time cause the waa is even higher up.

Map still coming, but most of us pushing warning criteria by 5am Sunday