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I think 84 is still the marker. Even the warmer NAM is 5-7” in the area. Amounts do dramatically drop off to the SE

I had about .04 inches of precip. About 3/4 fell as snow/graupel. The rest drizzle/mist. No sleet from what could tell. .

I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period. I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.

It’s exciting if it does snow, but I’m not sold on it here lol. Your location is better in general for seeing frozen. My elevation is only 350’. Actually, downtown Frederick proper isn’t really that good at snow…we average less than upper Moco. The higher elevations of Frederick are a different geo. That said, I would “think” it would start as snow areawide given the overnight onset, but like you said it’s day 1 of met winter and not our wheelhouse.

it's interesting how bad global warming has got... 20 years ago even though we don't have the most arctic blast in place in my opinion with almost a perfect track wed get at least some mixing in the city but now that the world has warmed quite a bit we're only getting rain! i feel like this is a perfect benchmark track

It was nice tracking something atleast, but still a bummer.

Welp, there's a reason why I expressed concern yesterday that the Nam and Icon were bad despite their secondary status. Even though climatologically speaking N&W typically doesn't best, all areas in the MA need a modeling consensus or we rely on luck/fluke. Hopefully, either luck or fluke show up tomorrow for all of us, or at least a trend reversal at 18z.

It's true - ish. And the reason is because the basal velocities around the mid latitudes have risen in recent decade(s). It's just straight up statistically not favored to maintain a 'delicate' total confluent structure to the flow, when the fervency et al is tending to move everything along. I.e, less able to resonate in position. The same thing is happening with teleconnectors, too. The correlations are still there, but mass field biases, negative or positive, break down faster than the statistically favored or related events have time to materialize. This is likely why we keep seeing so many fast field/progressive patterns by behavior. Then we get these torpedo lows slipping along via shortwaves escaping out over the N Atl barely 84 hours from arriving off the Pacific.

Its too early to give up on that one. Lets see what the models do once tomorrow's storm leaves.

You can see into the future past this month? The MJO haven't even went into phase 8.

Yep, starting to look like you have to get into the Catskills before you see warning type snow amounts.

If you like wintry precip, your goal today is to get the least amount of sunshine as possible, OR hope that the clear skies last as long past 4pm as possible.

That high is sprinting exit stage right

Been beyond hideous outside of Jan 2022 and the winter of 20-21 that's for sure...

Or missing?

The last few years is not the norm however either. We swung very hard in the other direction. 2022-2024 was the first central park saw back to back single digit " winters. It's unfortunate now that we can't get moderate yearly snowfalls in the 20"s like back in the 1980s. The default now is single digits or in the low teens" with rare exceptions like february 2021.

I got my one day of weekly telework tomorrow. Thoroughly looking forward to whatever I can manage out of this event.

Messenger shuffle would happen between now and go time...usually inside 24h. The lack of the high pressure even sort-of holding on probably will sink us again....it's been a killer for like 4 winters now. Cannot buy a high to even try and hold on.

Did it? I guess we'll find out tomorrow

I apparently ended up with a white rain yesterday because usually events like that might have the initial burst sticking to the cars and grass and mulch but didn't even have that - all of that was mostly wet so it would just melt right in. Ended up with a high of 40 yesterday after a 33 low, 0.07" for the event, & 3.08" of total precip. for the month of November. Currently 39 and partly sunny with dp 28.

Sure. But we already see the pattern unfolding. huggers and suppressed, the dominant pattern since 2018.

all 12z modeling including the future FV3, REGEM, NAM and HRRR slightly warmer. not good for reaching forecast snow values unless we can get some decent snow increase rates by 18z.

Kids gonna get a 2 hour delay for cold rain

Yeah 12z models coming in warmer for those who were on the line NW of 95 up to I-78. I still think Berks, Lehigh, Northampton can squeeze out 1-3 inches on the initial thump IF it starts as snow. However, if there's a pesky warm nose (i.e. that some of the warmer guidance shows) things could start as sleet which would cut down entirely on snow totals. It's not really a sleet type of storm, though I'm talking about the initial thump before the true warm surge happens as the low tracks to the S and SE of the area off the coast.

The GFS crushed everything on this from days ago. I knew it . Total collapse. What happened to the Messenger shuffle