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  2. mahantango#1
    KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread rain on Monday A wet start to the work week with widespread rain expected on Monday. The heaviest rainfall is most likely between 2AM and 8PM with totals in the 0.75-1.50" range. Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate 50-80% probs for >1" across most of CPA. Flooding risk is marginal to low with greatest risk likely confined to urban areas where locally heavy or repeat downpours could cause some isolated runoff issues. Rain tapers off/ends Monday night with dry weather returning on Tuesday.
  3. yoda
    Day 3 SPC OTLK for Monday... ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A moist airmass will move into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak which will limit overall instability, but moderate shear and sufficient instability, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Monday afternoon/evening. In addition, a smaller area of greater low-level shear may exist closer to the surface low across northern Virginia and vicinity, which could have a localized region of greater tornado threat.
  4. Torch Tiger
    So you told no one Got it lol
  5. ineedsnow
    Big heat is gone for awhile.. we tried to tell them
  6. pawatch
    50 degrees, nice morning Saw a deer, it was hustling through the backyard. Cardinal and hummingbirds at the feeders this morning.
  7. Today
  8. Maestrobjwa
    I was just STARTING to think that was it as well, but was not gonna buy into it until they got over .500. So often you see struggling teams can get on a random hot streak and pull within a couple games of that mark. But then just as they do they hit the wall, stupid stuff happens, and they fall backwards. The Blue Jays series was that moment: we win that we are just two games under with a chance to get to or over .500. But instead? We lost 4 in a row. It was that moment where I kinda closed the door on any chance of turning it around this year. They are somewhat better than last year, but still mediocre. And I do not think that's gonna change until they get rid of Elias. It's he and Sig that has made this system...and it has failed these players. I hope Rubenstein & Co. do the right thing!
  9. WxUSAF
    lol let's go GGEM/RGEM for Monday!
  10. WxUSAF
    Awful loss. But they've had a bunch of those already. Just no sign of them turning it around. I thought that 10 wins out of 14 games (or whatever that stretch was a couple weeks ago) was it...but nope.
  11. Jebman
    I would not want to visit the Middle East. It is way too hot there. I have heard of their *LEGENDARY* heat indices over there. Make Texas in Summer look like a cool autumnal breeze lol.
  12. Jebman
    MOAR storms are forming directly over Buda this morning at 12.47am!!! Some of the radar elements are deep red. This rain is torrential at times! We got three quarters of an inch in about 10 minutes! We are now up to 28.1 inches on the year! This is unbelievable! I am gonna have to start building Jebman's Ark!
  13. Snowlover11
    We will see if Monday produces.
  14. MillvilleWx
    Well, I think this L from the Orioles will be the proverbial nail in the coffin for the season. I don't see how they come back from this one. They might get swept in back-to-back series and fall 9 games under .500 after this one with the Dodgers. They needed to win tonight and had a chance and blew it.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Strongest on record, since the mid 1800s.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    Was 09-10 a strong -NAO?
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 would have been well above normal if it wasn't for strong -NAO. Not saying we can't have -NAO this Winter, it's more random vs ENSO
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Best I could do is 20c isotherm depth, but here's most recent day vs that day in 1997 Depth average temp Edit: I found 1997's full subsurface profile
  19. snowman19
    +8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Going to be a really Super Nino. +8C has appeared in the subsurface. I think only 1997 matched this. I love strong events - because seeing how the global pattern responds gives indications about the current state of things.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    +8C! How healthy does this look (also notice there's no major cold water building in the west)?
  22. vortex95
    That's new this year. See screenshot attached. A good change IMHO b/c it quantifies things better. Too often, the MSM gets "yellow X happy," as I like to call it, when NHC has multiple potential areas outlined, and the MSM and the hyper-masters act like, "the tropics are coming ALIVE!"
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Just give me until Tuesday evening. Got field work on Monday and pouring concrete on Tuesday.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Can't say I've seen the gray X before. RIP I guess.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    12z and 18z NAM looked decent but the 00z NAM is dry and boring as burnt toast.
  26. WxWatcher007
    I have to say, I might be a bit biased after having my first fall and winter up there. Spring was rough--SLK was a ghost town in April--but my goodness it's wonderful up there. Just need to get a good squall line day up my way to complete it. Some folks in the Mid-Atlantic region used to organize a Midwest chasecation years ago. It'd be a hoot to have the regulars here crammed in a SUV driving through Kansas.
  27. SnoSki14
    As warm as its been here we've been fortunate enough to avoid these extreme bursts as similar conditions here could yield 110+ highs.
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