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Hasn’t been online since April

Or was it?

Lots of posters kept harping on the gfs and little was discussed about the euro.

From wxrisk. ... FWIW!!

On Pivotal, the numbers don't count sleet. On Tropical Tidbits, they do, but sleet is treated the same as snowfall, which inflates the totals. Both approaches lead to inaccuracy, since snowfall figures are the sum of snow and sleet.

It was a disaster

Getting pretty goddamned tired of the dry slots...

For you, it is a difficult question................ For others, it is a simple conclusion

Here you go:

It’s crazy how quickly this thing evolved. Just a couple days ago I was talking about going ice fishing tomorrow. That won’t be happening now. .

Thats why the Euro is rated as one of the superior models we have ...least amount of flaws in development

Euro was probably the best model with this overall from start to finish.

New York City's largest snowstorm since January 28-29, 2022 has now departed. Even as precipitation dried up for several hours last evening, Central Park still wound up with 4.3" of snow while JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark all saw 4" or more of snow. Many parts of southwestern Connecticut and Long Island saw 6" or more. Tomorrow will turn somewhat milder as a storm heads for the Great Lakes. Showers and possibly periods of rain will develop late tomorrow and continue into early Monday. The temperature will likely reach the upper 40s to perhaps lower 50s on Monday before colder air moves in behind the departing system. The remainder of December will see cooler than normal days. Below normal temperatures will continue into at least the middle of the first week of January. Some flurries or snow showers are possible late on January 1 into January 2. December 2025 will very likely finish with a maximum monthly temperature below 60° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +14.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.006 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (5.2° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Weather models just output solutions using the data that are inputed into them and perform according to the way they are programmed containing various parameters - very complex. So every model is programmed differently. Thse reason each model outputs different solutions. Also No model will output a perfect solution that matches what ends up happening in real time because the atmosphere is constantly changing - so of course the NAM will not get everything right......

Overall this December gets an A- 14” of snow, cold but a few warmer days mixed in to allow for outdoor activities. Lots of snow on the ground when holiday lights up. Really a very good month

Thanks for the heads up on potential zr - I wasn’t aware that was a chance (I’m dumb and assumed any precut would’ve in front of the temp collapse!).

Which is silly of course. The whole snow board thing is ludicrous. Just measure snow on a table top or god forbid the ground and call it a day. People go a little nuts

For -ENSO (17 seasons): 1872 10.6 1874 14.5 1886 6.6 1893 9.4 1903 15.6 1909 11.1 1915 0.7 1916 5.8 1917 13.2 1922 24.5 1926 5.7 1933 0.1 1942 9.5 1944 12.3 1995 26.1 2000 8.3 2010 36.0 Mean/median: 12.4/10.6 Interestingly, the lowest 2 Jans and highest 3 Jans were -ENSO.

They broke the GFS something bad. Used to give us fantasy snowstorms all the time.

DFW tied the record high of 82*F today.

What's wild is this storm still has the potential to overachieve beyond what's already forecasted for MSP.

Been a brutal shut the blinds stretch but signs of hope at least. If the expected +PNA -NAO actually sets up I’d expect to start seeing fantasy storms soon

Yeah I think this is what it is. It can officially be over 4", but be hard pressed to find an actual snow depth to match that this morning.

If there's a place that's prepared for this last minute, it's your neck of the woods. Congrats!