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The first time that Nino 1+2 ONI went above +3 only 3 years apart. So the last super El Niño left a warm imprint without the stronger trades or much in the way of La Niña developing. The first clue the El Niño would reload so quickly was the 1+2 warming in November 2025 into December 2025. A record +PNA followed with a strongest Aleutian low in years and Nino-like elements to the pattern. Will be interesting to see how this record breaking event leaves the Pacific Basin SST and wind structure for what happens later in the 2020s. The current PDO would be in the +1.60 range just based on the EPAC warmth like July 2015. But the lingering warmth and ridging from Japan to North of Hawaii are having an overlapping influence leading to alternating Nino-like and Niña-like 500mb patterns across North America.

From Mount Holly- Several thunderstorms crossed through the region on the evening of June 22, 2026. While there were multiple wind damage reports, the most intense path of damage was near Wye Mills to Cordova with a storm that crossed through near 7 PM. Damage was noted beginning along Old Wye Mills Road where multiple trees had been uprooted. A discontinuous path of damage continued towards the southeast. Along Newtown Road, multiple trees were snapped, with an estimated maximum wind speed of 90 to 100 mph, the highest estimated wind speed along the entire path. Near Saulsbury, a center pivot irrigation system was overturned. Damage path continued with additional damage, primarily tree damage, reported along Blades Road and Asches Acres Road. I saw some sporadic tree damage driving through that area yesterday morning headed to work. Most of the major damage was just to the west/NW .

One way to get big heat up here is over the top. The gfs op has a couple of good plumes advecting in from James Bay. The euro still has some flies in the ointment trying to limit the heat potential. Either way the ridge retros to the west after the 4th on most guidance.

Not a drop for me the last two days.

How they did it in Feb 2026 at PVD i do not know but they all continue that standard somehow even in the most windy blizzards with lots of drifting and blowing snow. This was pretty extensive published by the state climate extremes committee (SCEC) on the record https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/scec/reports/20260331-Rhode-Island-24-Hour-Snowfall.pdf

Anyone else having trouble loading the site? It's been terrible for the past two days.

Did you get a chance to see the gorgeous Asperitas display? My friend was near where the SSP and RTE 110 met. It looked more impressive closer to the South Shore than further to the north. https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1377119724231766&set=a.160564152554002 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asperitas_(cloud)

WB 9Z NBM...here we go again... but don't worry the WB 6Z 12K NAM will save us! Actually, the WB 6Z RDPS is ok for northern areas as well. We are still in wait and see mode...

Looks like a nice hot and dewy stretch heading into the 4th.

Strong la nina in 2027-28 if this verifies.

Back end still moving like a sloth on ket

I probably should I waited to start this thread. Everything pretty much trended north where they don't need rain. Hopefully it keeps going north. Not trying to ruin the weekend with worthless sprinkles.

This South American met agrees with you. We are about to see +9C subsurface anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC: ^Translation: “20°C Isotherm: the 20°C layer that separates the colder waters from the warmer ones in the deep-sea profile (up to 500 meters depth) where #ElNiño develops. Over the last 3 months, that layer has been becoming almost horizontal (a sign of an intense event). The slope of the thermocline today is comparable to the one observed at a similar time in 1997. This can be seen in the measurements of how deeply it is submerged compared to its normal values at 95°W (which is the eastern boundary of the TAO buoys that measure the temperatures of the first 500 meters of ocean depth and the gateway to warming in the Niño 1+2 Region or where we measure #ElNiñoCostero). Currently, it is about 50 meters below its usual position. It is observed as it appeared in 1997 and exceeding in depth all intermediate #ElNiño events. Two other relevant observations: the first is the surface displacement of the warmest waters of the equatorial Pacific, which at the start of the animation were in the western basin and today are moving through the central Pacific (see movements of the 29°C and 30°C isotherms at the surface). The second: a new warm Kelvin Wave forming embedded within the far western end of the large subsurface warm water anomaly under 170°W. In the animation, I have slowed down the speed of the last frames so that it can be appreciated how the mass of warm water sinks in the "tail" of the larger warm mass. There is the warm Kelvin Wave or downwelling wave. Currently, the continuous sinking of the 20°C isotherm has already produced an anomaly of +8°C at the eastern end (near South America) of the temperature profile. In 1997 we reached values between +11°C and +12°C. Soon we will see a 9°C anomaly appear within the +8°C one. This is the highest heat content in June between 180° and 100°W since the +2.25°C of June 1997. To date, we are at approximately +2.10°C.”

58 degrees for the low this morning. Fish bite has been extremely slow.

Oh noes! The dreaded double heat domes.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·oSrstepnodh5ut63hmc3u68i97agiat4u30l2752uu52h316045m0459ttci · Thursday, Jun 25 @ 5:30 AM | Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast today and tonight, mostly confined to NW PA through midday, then slowly advancing south and east. A few isolated storms may become severe, mainly in NW Pa

The trend doesn't seem to be your friend if you want completely dry but it doesn't look like a wash out either as of now anyway

Finally getting a whole new central AC for the house just in time. Starts tomorrow and done hopefully by the end of Friday. Just in the nick of time for next weeks heater.

Yeah mid-day it wasn't loading much. They must have done some maintenance as now the 'yes' emoji shows up instead of a generic broken icon. Anyone else following the insanity in Europe with their heatwave? Paris may have 6 days near 40C/104F in a row!

This verified decently well with a slew of tornado warnings and observed tornadoes across the south as Arthur swung through. Obviously it did not intensify. The moisture didn't quite hook up with the major tornado outbreaks across the midwest, though honestly so much deep moisture streaming in could have tempered the storm mode and filled regions of observed discrete tornadic supercell development with slop-vection.

Every El Niño is different of course. But based on past very strong El Ninos, the firehose of ST moisture for much of the SE doesn’t usually fully turn on until Nov or after the main part of the ATL tropical season is over.

Hey all, despite the cold season being long gone, I can't help but look towards next winter/ski season. I have begun working on a new project for the upcoming season in which I hope to develop and host some unique tools that can be used for forecasting, akin to what is available on the New York State Mesonet: https://nysmesonet.org/ . Geographically this will be smaller though, with a focus on the mountainous zones of NNE. And no, I am not building a mesonet! I have some visualization ideas for overlays that do not yet exist in the open internet, but are essential to orographic forecasting. I am going to keep the core plots and visualizations I have in plans under wraps for now, but I will drop one hint: think of the critical number for a major Spine upslope event... If you have anything that you would like to see, please let me know! I am open to all ideas for products to host on this future website