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Ideal air mass and atmospheric conditions for cooler nights and rapid rises during the day. A touch more humid today as air mass gets "dirtier" and heats up but still nothing oppressive. Moderate dews at worst. Less cooling expected tonight. Minimal rainfall next 7 days at least. Watering continues.

It was quite cold and I enjoyed every minute of it. Reminded me of yesteryear winters a bit. Many thanks to the IO-Pac warm pool for that gem. I went for below normal temps the entire winter. Only thing that didn't pan out was above normal snow (even though we ended up with >3.0" frozen LWE). Upcoming winter should be even easier to forecast than that one was. In fact, if you have trouble with this upcoming winter, I'm not sure this hobby is for you. (Hint: If you're using the CANSIPS here, you're in for a big disappointment.)

3k NAM not on board

And by scorching I mean 90+ for many... it will obviously be well AN ahead of that

UAH huggers are going to be in complete shambles in about 8 months. Gonna be really tough to explain that one away.

WB EPS seasonal outlook for December. Warm and wet.

Low of 58, as our heat starts to build. We will be at Bethany Beach all next week and it looks like we'll have a couple of cool beach days to contend with early in the week, with highs right around 70, but otherwise should have a nice week on our hands. We leave tomorrow after a morning baseball game. Kids are getting pumped.

Every morning this week has been fabulous. 40s and 50s imby all week.

We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so.

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring forecast barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

AWT

Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD

First 89 of the year yesterday. Could’ve been the 6th 90+ of the year. Warming up quickly again today, low was 54 and it’s already in the 80’s.

Ancient history (2010) - in late April that year, PWM temp jumped from a cloudy 59 to a sunny 84 in 15 minutes when the east breeze switched to a strong SW wind. I was at Mercy Hospital overlooking the Fore River waiting for my wife's knee surgery to be finished and had a full view to E (some fog) and W (much haze).

Four of the last five years June has been our hottest month (under certain metrics). I'll be curious to see if that happens again. Our last "El Nino" June (2023) was fairly cool, but that was a cool summer, period. Only five days >=90F. Compared to 24 and 17 the following two years. Thus far we've had a hot March and April and a cool May.

Just over half an inch here. Looks like almost another half inch to come. Hopefully.

Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (2021) NYC: 99 (1925) LGA: 94 (2021) JFK: 90 (2010) Lows: EWR: 48 (1947) NYC: 47 (1945) LGA: 49 (1945) JFK: 50 (2023) Historical: 1805: A group of tornadoes tracked from southeast Missouri across the southern third of Illinois, and may also have moved into Indiana. These moved across the Mississippi River about 20 miles downstream from St. Louis, MO. Fish were reportedly "scattered all over the prairie" on the Illinois side of the river. Some pine tree tops, not native to that area of Illinois, were believed to have been blown in from at least 50 miles away. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1859 - Frost was reported from Iowa to New England. The temperature dipped to 25 degrees in New York State, and up to two inches of snow blanketed Ohio. The cold and snow damaged the wheat crop. (David Ludlum) 1908 - Helena MT was deluged with 3.67 inches of rain to establish their all-time 24 hour rainfall record. (4th-5th) (The Weather Channel) 1916 - A tornado struck the town of Warren AR killing 83 persons. There were 125 deaths that day in a tornado outbreak across Missouri and Arkansas. (David Ludlum) 1917 - Residents near Topeka KS reported disk-shaped hailstones six to ten inches in diameter, and two to three inches thick. The hailstorm was accompanied by a tornado. (The Weather Channel) 1925: Earliest 100° in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1945: Unusually cold air moved in to parts of the upper Midwest. Chicago, IL dropped to 37° after setting a record low the previous morning with 35° while Rockford, IL dropped to 35° on both mornings. Both 35 degree readings established June record lows. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - International Falls, MN, dipped to a record low reading of 34 degrees during the morning. Williston, ND, and Glasgow, MT, reported record warm afternoon highs of 94 degrees. Major flooding was reported along the Guadelupe River in South Texas, with the water level at Cuero reaching 18 feet above flood stage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Twenty cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 108 degrees at Glasgow MT was a record for June. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast during the day and into the night. Four tornadoes were reported, and there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1995: The Hurricane name was not retired in 1995 thus a different Hurricane Allison is named as the 2001 Hurricane Allison below. Hurricane Allison became the earliest hurricane on record to cross the Florida coast at when it came ashore in Taylor County at Apalachee Bay with 75 mph winds. Hurricane Allison crossed the coast near Alligator Point in the Florida Big Bend area at 0900z on the 5th. At landfall, maximum sustained winds were 69 mph with a minimum central pressure of 990 millibars. Maximum rainfall amounts were between 4 and 6 inches. Storm surge heights were estimated at 6 to 8 feet from Dixie through Wakulla counties. Total storm damage in Florida was estimated at $860,000 dollars. The 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season went down in the record books as one of the busiest hurricane seasons since 1871. There were a total of 19 named storms, 11 of which reached hurricanes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: An F1 tornado touched down near the town of New Hope, MS creating a path one mile long and 50 yards wide. 13 houses had major damage and another 129 homes had minor damage. 22 mobile homes were either damaged or destroyed. Damages were estimated near $250,000 dollars. Another F1 tornado created a path two miles long and 50 yards wide 10 miles southeast of Hattiesburg, MS. 45 people were injured and two people were killed. The two fatalities were both in automobiles which ran into falling trees or the trees fell on them. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: The Wye Oak, estimated to be 460 years old, was toppled by a severe thunderstorm with winds greater than 60 mph. The tree was located at Wye Mills, MD and was over 100 feet tall and had a 31 foot circumference.

Drought busted

75 / 54 and getting hot. 90 - 95 in the warmest spots today and tomorrow, Saturday only caveat is more clouds TBD could keep temps a bit below forecast. Sunday a bit cooler with onshore-ish flow. The spots topped at 89 yesterday outside of Phlly, so heatwave 2 will need to see an overperforming Sunday otherwise its 2 days of 90s. Warm back up but still a tendency for weakness/cut offs under the ridge next week before warm-hot flow overall warmer by Thu and beyond with ridge in the coasts.

Euro seasonal only goes out thru December, but looks pretty similar to Cfs2 vs Cansips weather-wise. Very wet along the east coast. I'll take it with my inland location at 600'asl.

a few cooler days after Saturday than the heat returns according to NOAA CPC

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:

Yup. The temperature inversion was evident on the nighttime low temp map on the mesonet. Baltimore City already up to 77 degrees at 8am.