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That would align with the MJO progression

GFS is all alone among the globals as far as sleet/snow goes in the majority of our region. Freezing rain? No interest.

Yea I was expecting +20 today not snow.

Was pretty shocked looking at 12z bufkit for PWM...perhaps indicating the better stuff will be favored northeast and PWM could even struggle to pull off more than 5-6". Its definitely going to be close because it all really depends on how everything aligns.

Congrats on the move! Hopefully you continue to check in here. Cheaper cost of living and still can get snow can’t go wrong with that

Ugh, we're driving from my parents house in NJ to Deep Creek Friday morning. Might need to leave around 4a to miss the weather.

Nice little surprise storm. Models put down about 2" of sleet here. GFS has 4" snowdepth, but that's probably mostly ice. I'm in a good position though, the cold air wedges in pretty good SW. And it's a daytime storm for once, should be pretty out!

The op runs and ensembles from the Euro and GFS werent cold past day 7/8 today. It will probably show something different tonight.

Yea that is the way. What a tough forecast for PWM… 8” is a good forecast though, all things considered…

I am on the edge of my seat in anticipation... Tonight Rain and snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Patchy fog before 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Follow up on this part of my earlier post. All the regulars in here know if there’s snow showing anywhere on model guidance that Blizz is on it. And in the case of this potential event Fri/Sat, here’s multiple receipts courtesy of him… as far back as the 14th! Yea guidance has been inconsistent and all over the place, but this potential event/setup didn’t completely come out of nowhere.

That inverted trough is gonna separate the marine air from the cold air over the land that’s in the lower mid 20s. Wherever that coastal front sort of set up in pivot that’s where the high totals are gonna be just in a very small area but that small area could get absolutely pummeled.

Yeah, as I tell my toddler, "Go to your room and recharge your batteries." Professional mets can't be howling about the inconsistencies of the various models; leave that for us amateurs ha.

Here’s the latest Untappd snow forecast model. Hop Saturated Snow for the win!

Fun times. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Christmas comes early for snow lovers as a Norlun trough impacts Maine and New Hampshire tonight. Snow continues to spread from west to east during the late afternoon and evening hours. By late this evening and through the overnight hours, an inverted trough is expected to become stationary across the MidCoast, likely reaching westward into Casco Bay. This serves as a focus for heavy snowfall overnight, with high ratios and ideal dendritic growth conditions supporting higher snow totals. With this update, confidence has increased in much of the MidCoast experiencing the heavy snowfall, which likely reaches into the western Maine mountains and into the eastern Whites. Winter storms warnings have been expanded another tier of zones inland, where high ratios should help support higher totals. Closer to the coast, high ratio and fluffy snow is still expected, but surface temperatures around freezing likely cause the snow to become a bit stickier and settle more once it`s on the ground. In all these areas, 6-12 inches of snow is expected. Locally higher amounts are possible, and would most likely occur just back from the coast where surface temps in the 20s limit settling, and in areas of increased elevations, even if only by a few hundred feet. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected through the overnight hours, with 1-3 in/hr at times in the heavier snow bands. Reduced visibility and difficult travel conditions are expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Snow continues into the morning hours through much of Maine. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-3 in/hr continue into the early morning commute along the coast, and then ease through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Winds increase toward the end of the snowfall event, with gusts of 20-30 mph likely to cause some blowing and drifting snow into the afternoon hours tomorrow. Temperatures also fall on the backside of the system, with temps spending most of the day in the 20s. Temperatures fall into the teens across most of the region for Christmas Eve. Then, clouds begin to move in overnight as the next shortwave moves in on northwesterly flow. Snow showers spread southeastward after midnight, likely reaching into central locations by daybreak on Christmas morning. Snowfall amounts from this would remain light, but a coating to an inch of snow is possible by daybreak across the mountains and foothills.

32 here and sticking except road . Intensity picked up last 15 minutes

Yeah everything bought into the warm pattern real quick as NG was forecasting the pattern to basically last all Winter. It's not a wall-to-wall torch pattern this Winter, imo.

Let’s keep the mojo going!!!

We actually had a storm back in I think 2020 .. December I believe. We had at least a few inches of sleet during the day and later that night I remember we had thunder and lightning and everything turned to Snow.... By the next day when it stopped in the early afternoon, we had about 16 or so inches.

just had a nice burst of snow, too bad temps are marginal everything that fell and falling is melting.

You very well know this region can’t all cash it together lol But man it’d be awesome if that comes to fruition. No ice!!!

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years.

I’ll take 1 the 40% chance ain’t good enough for me

Natural gas is now up 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day since at least August. Keep in mind that NG’s strongest days are usually when the E US two week forecast is looking colder than the prior day: Natural Gas (NGF6) Real-time derived Currency in USD 4.376 +0.411(+10.37%) Real-time Data·13:51:34

We'll see about the Friday/Saturday deal. The one Brooklyn is posting about is New Year's Day.