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Looks like Euro is getting .75 QPF into the area.

Everything to shift south like on the GFS. The Euro warmed enough for rain in Chattanooga and up towards Knoxville for a brief period. That would help some with the ice.

Euro is around .75" liquid

Yeah the precip field compressed.

Hopefully the rest of the trees at Augusta are gone.

Big potential when all the models show basically the same thing and the pattern supports it.

I wouldn't let be Euro scare anyone too much. There's really cold air aloft and a strong high funneling it in. Climo says that cold air should be thicker.

Close enough at this range though.

0Z had around .97 QPF in the city, so a very slight step back but mostly just noise

I got you brother I knew what you were saying. I’m sitting in TPA airport right now heading back so I was just doing it off 6z euro recollection. Thought it looked a good bit warmer. I feel like we’re in that smaller adjustment period to fine tune the final markers/barriers for mix/pure snow and precip shield accuracy. Thursday afternoon maybe will be the window to start saying ok this is a good bet.

That is gotta be closing in on one of the most devastating ice storms on record for parts of the mid-Atlantic there into GA where they CAD well.

I'm happy it's the GFS showing the miss and not the CMC, ECMWF, or UK. But big snowstorms are uncommon - everything has to go right and usually doesn't. So it's reasonable to be on guard for what might go wrong. Any signs of trending towards the GFS should be concerning if you want a big snow event.

true and the GFS ensembles disagree with its OP

I don't have maps but ECM likely 10-15" kuchera area wide

EURO looks like 7-12 depending on ratios

I'd rather have 8 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 8 hours..personal preference to watch snow fall I guess. bet the final solution no where near final.

definitely a step back from 6z with the phasing

Models love to extend storm duration.

i said i would step away from posting for 48 hours if we didn't see a north trend from the models last night and we did so in here

consistency and agreement with other models is key in any event iMO

That was ugly. My eyes are bleeding

I mean every single model is showing the same thing except the GFS. Ensembles are as well. I mean there's really not much more you could ask for?

In your opinion, what do we need to keep it primarily snow?