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New hot towers. Still probably another hour to true peak

FL winds actually up and pressure down last pass. This is a 110 kt storm now

172000 2834N 08702W 7378 02437 9758 +133 +158 133117 126 /// /// 05

110 knot support on latest pass

100% true this. I see no sign of dry air or shear having any effect on Isaias yet. At worst it is steady state. I see nothing to support weakening or degradation of the eye or the storm as a whole as of now. Likely has peaked but the expected weakening prior to landfall has not started yet.

Base off GSP chat I think they will be issuing something this afternoon..

It's way out there, but the NAM has a pretty nasty signature for tornadoes on the back end on Sunday

I can hear lots of thunder offshore St. George Island. The eastern feeder band should be hitting SGI in the next half hour.

October NAO has reversed for the Winter the last 5 times, last 5 years. This is on top of an already established opposite correlation 1948-2020. Through the 25th, Oct NAO looks to be ~+0.80-0.90

This radar image from recon seems to refute any signs of ERC that microwave indicated a few hours earlier

Sucks. Someone needs to post how many weekends have featured some kind of precipitation going back to like June. Feels like a lot of them have.

Way too warm today

exactly at kick off time for the Jets game at 1 on Sunday - how many Sundays in a row now has it rained for the Jets and Giants games in NJ ? Giants are at Washington it will probably be pouring down there for the entire game

Not sure about the microwave pass but radar improving is mostly an artifact of the storm entering radar range. Beam height (per RadarScope) is still about 30,000 ft near the South eyewall so it's just entering the range where the whole eyewall can be seen

My first winter in the Bay Area was pretty underwhelming both as far as snow and opportunities to get out there. Was certainly jealous of looking to VT and seeing all the epic powder shots from last year. I was able to take advantage of the best storm of the season as well as a great spring tour in the Kirkwood area, both of which were highlights. As my kid gets older and my wife wraps up her medical training, I'm hoping to pair that with what will hopefully be a much better season. I definitely miss the vibes of winter in New England though. It can be tough to get excited for snow when its 65 degrees and sunny every day...boring

Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC. Folks need to be aware of the Flooding possibility with this storm.

Radar (and the microwave pass posted above) did show some signs of degrading and possibly starting an EWRC, but radar has since improved.

That’s the next priority, as much as the wife thinks buying new furniture is, ha.

Some of the radar hallucinations are due to attenuation.

This hurricane must have body insecurity issues with everything that people have said about it in the last couple of days It looks pretty normal for a Category 3 hurricane, and unfortunately does not appear to be weakening yet

The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

Recon doesn't show degradation. I'm not sure what people are seeing. It's still generating very strong convection near center. It looks very steady to me.

Destin has a bunch of dense housing and touristy buildings/hotels right on/near the beach too, one of the more vulnerable areas that's more urban

Based on radar it could be a bit more of an eyewall meld than a true EWRC (which is sometimes common as it approaches land and the friction causes it to tighten up a bit) but it's definitely degrading which is welcome timing.