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IPA’s keep things flowing like the Yangtze

Constipated?

warm front finally made it up here, about 45 minutes ago, 75/55 now, really feeling like we've got some good juice for storms

An early summer preview lies ahead. Tomorrow will turn much warmer with temperatures surging into the middle 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots could approach 80°. Tuesday through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least next Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -17.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.016 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Although readings were confined to the lower and middle 50s, the signs of spring are everywhere. From the New York Botanical Garden:

Probably under . Late month holds some promise but it also might be cool which blows

At least you’re getting some rain . All of a sudden very dry and now can’t drop fert

O/U you see - 1.5" of rain, before 12z 4/26?

Just take the +1s right now

That’s actually decent but it won’t verify close to that with the massive Bermuda high

It's going to verify warmer. Also quite dewy for this time of year with a rather high launch point. I'm thinking low 90s likely in the warm spots. Easily low 90s down here in Jersey for 2-3 days. Low temps will be as high if not higher than daily high averages.

Dropped to 31 this morning

slight relief for the NNE drought, but SNE Steins

Euro just furnaces the week . Glad we installed

We Euro

Sinlaku is now forecast to pass directly over Saipan and Tinian. Really hope it misses, as those islands have already had bad hits from typhoons (like Yutu) in recent years.

Whatever? No eruptions and yet good winters through the 2000’s and 2000 teens. I can’t figure out where you’re going with this, and really don’t care. But it’s all good.

Mammoth got 18 inches last night. They just got upgraded to a foot of new snow today!

It's really super shallow, too. The 850 mb temp and wind layout really doesn't even speed up over that. It's all from 925 and lower

What a week for the heaters https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2043384233742246253?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I was just going to say that there's a good one going near Palmerton. They're using helicopters to scoop water out of the Lehigh River to fight it.

It comes through around sunrise for ENE with falling temps. There’s no moral victories on Thursday. Euro took a turn in this direction at 12z as well. Saturday may be salvageable.

Expecting Red Flag Warnings and some possible brush fires later this week. Rising temperatures, low humidity, some gusty winds and drying fuel.

APR 20 snowflakes in RIC