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For Albuquerque, the 2026 September had the most "wet" (>0.1") days on record (8). The average is three. El Ninos at >=5 wet days for Sept since 1931 are 1940, 1941, 1982, 1997, 2006. These are good winters - very wet, each with 12-28 inches of snow in the city. The Jun-Sept period finished with 12 days over 0.1" - generally >=11 favors a good winter for snow in the city. Since ABQ just had its wettest month since Nov 1905, literally 120+ years ago, second wettest month since 1892, its probably worth looking at the 1905-06 El Nino too for precipitation nationally - but haven't had a chance yet. June-Sept at ~5.96" is also rare for an El Nino. Only a handful of El Nino Summers are >5.0": 1940, 1941, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2006, 2014, 2015, 2018. 1940-1941 0.0 9.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 2.0 T 0.0 13.1 1941-1942 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 3.0 7.1 T 0.0 14.6 1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.2 1.3 T 0.0 10.0 1968-1969 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.9 1.8 5.5 0 0.0 14.7 1972-1973 0.0 2.9 1.2 9.5 1.8 13.9 8.1 0.0 37.4 1986-1987 3.2 0.6 0.2 4.9 4.9 0.2 2.2 0.0 16.2 1991-1992 2.5 1.5 2.1 5.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.9 1.1 8.8 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 12.4 2006-2007 0.0 0.2 20.8 2.2 4.7 0.0 0.9 0.0 27.9 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.2 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 7.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 2018-2019 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 Means: Fall: Oct -0.6" Nov - 1.3" DJF: Dec - 4.5" Jan - 2.9" Feb - 3.2" MAM: Mar -2.7" Apr - 0.9" May - 0.0" Total: 16.1" (100 year mean is ~9.6", 30 year mean is ~7.1") The crazy bit with these El Ninos is the 12 seasons average ~9.0 inches of snow in the top month and no individual month in ABQ averages even three. So "wet monsoon" + El Nino is typically a good indication of at least one big snow month for the SW.

For the first time in awhile, I don't want a hurricane in any context anywhere in the Atlantic

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic. Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

September finished quite similarly to a blend of the past four El Nino Septembers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) nationally. The West is not as warm in those years as 2026 is forecast for October - that will be a good test to see if that grouping fails going forward. PNA was primarily negative (as you'd expect looking at the maps) in Sept 2026. -PNA in Sept is weakly negatively correlated in the NW for Oct - I.e. it 'should' be warm, east should be cold. For the West, the Cansips roughly matches the correlation map.

0Z UK: high end 992 mb TS hits FL panhandle Sat AM and is the 3rd UK full run in a row with a Gulf TC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.8N 94.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 22.8N 94.2W 1005 27 0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 22.6N 93.1W 1002 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 23.9N 91.7W 999 36 0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.0N 90.3W 997 41 1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.3N 89.4W 996 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 27.9N 87.8W 992 53 1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 30.3N 86.6W 996 42 0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 32.6N 87.9W 1003 29

Picked up some good rain today and tonight. 1.56 so far.

mid atlantic bomb in feb

not really this is typical this time of year in fairbanks..

I'll take it.

Follow-up: as expected per model progs, 80N+ warmed further since 9/30 with a total of a whopping 5C over just the last 4 days to solidly AN:

Yes, yes it is. I already live on it. not trying to throw a “yellow card” for the shoreline, but it’s better than living on “Ocean Avenue.”

Impossibly beautiful day up at WXW2. A generational foliage run here this year which I hope extends to SNE in another week or two.

Insane

Cohen's postulation that high rate of advance of Siberian snow cover during October leads to a -AO winter has been hit or miss at best, but almost always a miss during Strong El Ninos.

If you're referring to the theorem by Judah Cohen that postulates rapid snow cover advance can weaken the polar vortex, the jury seems to believe that's incorrect.

Could be a lot worse. The current modeling suggests we should be able to put down some good snow into Siberia in the next week or two. Plus, it's more about the advance rate of Siberian snowpack, rather than total volume. There have been a few studies on this done if I am recalling correctly.

This entire summer except for late July was horrible and now the start of fall sucks too. Even worse is the models have backed off a bit on the extent of the cool down. The leaf change is expected to suck as well due to the drought.

Sure. It can hit anything. There’s some filtering algorithms. On social media tonight there’s some vids from Cedar Point in OH where there’s huge swarms of insects coming off of Lake Erie. Here’s an example of the beam being ducted back to the surface and picking up traffic on I40 east of KLIT https://www.kark.com/weather/weather-headlines/ast-blog-radar-beams-towards-i-40/

Cool.

Be more specific. Let me put it this way, if NNE gets a foot plus and @dendrite is walking in "white gold," and Weymouth is all rain, you are just as mad as if no storm occurred at all!