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Inches of leaves on my yard. It’s like a KU of leaves.

From the latest ENSO PPT (backloaded winter vibes?)... La Niña conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Niña. La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).*

One and ONLY leaf cleanup after lunch today. Temps climbing nicely after a low of 27.

Latest EPS and GEFS extended MJO both head into Phase 7 by the end of the month after a long stall in warm Phase 6. Question: DT states 7 is still a warm phase in December while JB says 7 is ok in December. Anyone have data on this topic. If 7 is still warm we will wait until mid December for Phase 8.

They just showed this pic on Fox 25. You fooking weenie.

Sounds like a cartopper, at least.

Social media version of the ECMWF weekly forecast for December 1-8:

I had 30 seconds of heavy rain.

The slowdown has happened a few times in the past as it got closer. Sometimes models are too gungho in the long range just to tame it back.

It’s certainly possible that it goes into phase 8 in December. However, the earlier idea that it would propagate into phase 8 by the end of this month appears to be dead in the water right now. The progression has slowed considerably

Cloudy for 2 days, then a broken line of showers, and then partly sunny and windy for 2 days followed by 1.5 days of nice weather...rinse, repeat. If this is the base state satellite imagery this winter...then we're staring down the barrel of another steroidal La Nina pattern... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

How about the other MJO plots ? November was always supposed to be mild towards the end. Its the end of Novenber into December when the pattern flips favorable .

Another case of the NAO/AO disconnect that we’ve been seeing more frequently the last 10 years….the NAO/AO used to almost always go positive or negative together and you rarely saw a disconnect between the two

Albert Hammond 1972 "It Never Rains In Southern California" Seems It Never Rains In Southern California Seems I've Often Heard That Kind Of Talk Before It Never Rains In California But Girl, Don't They Warn Ya ? It Pours, Man, It Pours

Below are the four major clusters for the EPO-/WPO-/PNA-/AO- (91% of all cases): Currently, the guidance favors the most common cluster.

Sorry to hear. Had something similar happen to us 8 years ago with rare genetic disorder. Wishing for brighter times ahead my friend.

But Should there really be much to show in the first two weeks of November in SNE?

28.7 here. Not sure how that happened with it colder than you . Last leaf cleanup once it warms a bit more

26F for a low with a little snow OTG. Fleeting but wintry for a few hours

lol fangs

Exactly. Thing is tucked into a corner, that faces the sun, and probably has compressor heat blowing on it. Thing would never survive out in the open…period. Silly and laughable to say that is a legit example. It’s not.

It doesnt rain in southern California

Nov 19 - 27th looks warm / very warm vs normal with perhaps a drastic change by the start or early into next month

I’ve been below freezing a few times but nothing really killing imo. But I’m a little micro climate.

Records: Highs: EWR: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading in EWR NYC: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading at NYC LGA: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading in LGA JFK: 77 (1993) Lows: EWR: 18 (1933) NYC: 20 (1967) LGA: 22 (1967) JFK: 20 (1967) Historical: 1900: A record lake-effect snowstorm at Watertown, NY produced 45 inches in 24 hours. The storm total was 49 inches. (14th-15th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1959: Cheyenne, WY recorded their greatest daily temperature change. After a high of 56°, a powerful cold front passed and by midnight that night the temperature had plummeted to -5°, a change of 61 degrees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961: Between the 13th and 15th occurred the earliest heavy snow recorded to fall in western Texas. A general 4 to 20 inches of snowfall whitened the area; 20 inches fell in Hartley, 16 inches in Romero and 70 mile an hour winds were reported in El Paso. In El Paso, a six year old girl was hurt when a 5 inch piece of glass (splinter from a broken window) was blown through her body. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) 1964 - With the help of a fresh three inch cover of snow, the temperature at Ely, NV, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to establish an all-time record low for the month of November. That record of -15 degrees was later equalled on the 19th of November in 1985. (The Weather Channel) 1967: A surprise snow and ice coating paralyzed Boston during the evening rush hour. New England had 1 foot of snow in north central and northeastern Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1974 - A storm produced 15 inches of snow at the Buffalo, NY, airport, and 30 inches on the south shore of Lake Erie. (David Ludlum) 1986 - An early season cold wave set more than 200 records from the northwestern U.S. to the east coast over a seven day period. For some places it proved to be the coldest weather of the winter season. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - The first major snowstorm of the season hit the Southern and Central Rockies, producing 12 inches at the Brian Head ski resort in Utah overnight. Strong and gusty winds associated with the storm reached 52 mph at Ruidoso NM. In the eastern U.S., the temperature at Washington D.C. soared to 68 degrees, just three days after being buried under more than a foot of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34 hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16. 1988 - A massive storm produced snow and gusty winds in the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Show Low AZ, and Donner Summit, located in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, was buried under 23 inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked parts of California, with 3.19 inches reported at Blue Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed east of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as New England, and readings in the 80s were reported across the southeast quarter of the nation. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second time in the month Dallas/Fort Worth TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees. The high of 91 degrees at Waco TX was their warmest of record for so late in the season. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Wyoming overnight, with a foot of snow reported at Cody, and ten inches at Yellowstone Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: A heat wave gave a 83° reading at National Airport and was the latest >80° reading ever recorded in November. (Ref. Weather Records KDCA ) The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. The other two of these dates were on November 1st in 1974 and 1950. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC) 1994: After a serpentine track through the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Storm Gordon began affecting south Florida while located off the northeast coast of Cuba. Gordon moved slowly west-northwest, reaching the lower Florida Keys late on the 15th. On the 16th, Gordon turned northeast and accelerated, moving inland near Fort Myers in the morning and exiting into the Atlantic just north of Vero Beach in the late afternoon. After becoming a hurricane off the coast of North Carolina, then weakening to a tropical depression and moving south and west, Gordon moved ashore a second time just north of Melbourne on the 21st. The maximum sustained wind was 53 mph at Virginia Key in east Dade County, and the minimum central pressure was 995 millibars shortly after initial landfall near Fort Myers. Gordon directly caused 8 fatalities and 43 injuries. Gordon's total damage is estimated around $400 million. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York 1996: One of the longest and most intense early season lake effect snow squall events came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, OH was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six day period. Edinboro, PA checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, OH and 42 inches fell at Sherman, NY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: A week of torrential rains brought serious flooding to parts of Texas. 13 inches of rain fell across parts of south Texas, breaking records in Austin and San Antonio. A resourceful woman in Travis County, Texas drove long nails into a tree to create steps for her to climb into the upper parts of the tree, escaping the floodwaters. 8.66 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Austin, TX. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: Texas on the 15th through the 18th: Several days of heavy rainfall in the Texas Hill Country dumps 5 to 10 inches, producing widespread flooding. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2005: Severe thunderstorms produced over 30 tornadoes in 6 states, resulting in one fatality and at least 35 injuries (Associated Press). Some of the worst damage occurred in Henry county, Tennessee, where numerous homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2006: Strong winds cause severe damage at a skating rink in Montgomery, Alabama where more than 30 preschoolers were playing. Two children suffered injuries but there were no fatalities. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2008: Santa Ana winds blew from this day through the 19th bringing record highs. Winds gusted over 70 mph in the Santa Ana Mountains and over 60 mph in the northern Inland Empire. The Freeway Complex Fire burned from Corona through Chino Hills and Yorba Linda. This fire destroyed or damaged over 300 homes and four businesses. More than 30,000 acres burned and more than 40,000 evacuated. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)