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  2. No signs of a watch or meso discussion yet
  3. Go down the street and it’s pouring. Stein shaft over my house
  4. We still do not have an official landfall per the NHC, though it should be momentarily. Edouard's vortex has been stubbornly hugging the shoreline just SE of Sabine Pass for quite a while now.
  5. One complication for tomorrow is that some of the guidance pushes a front from the northeast through the area later tonight. If that pushes well to our southwest like shown in the NAM Nest, we'll be cooler and more stable, at least on the Maryland side. Less aggressive guidance puts the boundary somewhere between DC and Baltimore and has it retreat later in the day. This would in theory be a focus for afternoon convection.
  6. 91/76 here in Lebanon with a HI of 103 right now. Thermodynamic environment primed for explosion but will the fuse get lit later? Time will tell .
  7. This is why you hike starting early, particularly with high mountains of 13000-14000, and particularly when you know it's not going to be perfectly sunny. You try to get off the peak before lightning, which might even start going at 12:00-1:00. The earliest storms happen with the mid-day radiation. Thankfully I had many sunny days of hiking mountains, as I tried to plan it out that way.
  8. The east based nature went hand in hand with the overpowering STJ flooding North America with mild Pacific air. So even storms tracking south of the I-95 corridor were all rain near the coast. It was one of the rare cases of the STJ pumping the Eastern ridge in January causing it to link up with the Greenland block. Our recent link ups were mostly Northern Stream driven.
  9. Not expecting much here-still mostly cloudy after an inch of rain
  10. peak 38kt gusts at Port Arthur Texas. Now that could blow my hat off my head.
  11. 87 / 75 sun out we'll see how warm we go 850 MB temps pushing >17c
  12. There’s moderate CAPE well into Southern New England now and sun just broke out here in Bergen.
  13. Sunny and 92/76, HX of 104 and no breeze. YUCK
  14. CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled.
  15. question guys... during strong el niños, does nyc get a lot of snow, a lot of mix events or just mostly rain?
  16. Pretty oppressive out there today ngl Headlines no joke
  17. Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example.
  18. Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season
  19. DC reached 98 in the first week of October 2019. Several years within the last decade have had 80s well into October, sometimes for an entire week in the latter half. November 2024 also had an 80 degree day.
  20. Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".
  21. At least September means the heat can’t possibly stay too long right? Right? This year has been boring weather-wise since February here in comparison to elsewhere in VA. At least it’s wetter in recent weeks!
  22. Yeah it's pretty unstable out there. CAPE exceeding 3K too. Lots of sun
  23. I just saved a GFS image from their site and it was a 125kb png.
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