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While these very long range forecasts aren’t the strong suit of these seasonal models, notice how weak the subsurface cold pool is near the Dateline by next March. The warmth in the east looks similar to March 1998. But but the cold pool is significantly smaller from the Dateline and westward.

This is not "contest." It is a discussion forum. And the fact the hot wx looks like it will occur irrelevant here. I was talking about the overuse and obsession w/ "heat dome" and other concocted labels/terms the media focused on to hype.

Looks like more rain chances Thurs-Sat

Using my "I'm the boss" card this afternoon. The area of rain is building and looking good. I'm going to put my bathing suit on and go for a rainy hike. It's been so dry that it should feel great out there.

You are missing the point. Target audience is not the issue. It's how things are handled and communicated. When you commit logical fallacies and display clear biases, cognitive or otherwise, that skews the truth or outright lies, influencing perception of many, and this biased information get shared across social media. How is this good for society overall? Science communication should be objective and present *all* data, reasonable views/sides, and note caveats/shortcoming of the data/findings, not cherry- pick to promote a particular narrative That's bad science and disingenuous. And calling those out for it or noting errors is part of the scientific process. Science is self-correcting and evolves over time, not ever "settled."

Hey, that's me! Getting some decent rain the past hour or so though.

0.22 yesterday and 0.14 so far today.

There’s a tiny stripe from Centerville to Tysons to Silver Spring that managed to get fringed both days.

Steady light stuff continues. No Flash Flood but it's good to see a constant steady light rain falling. Feels like it's been a while... Temp actually went down to 66F:

Gravy on the biscuit so to speak.

Yeah. that whole monitoring system is both needed, but is also in need (imho) of some sort of reevaluation of technique. I took a deeper dive and read 'how' they come up with it a while ago. It's a combination of empirically derived, plus human perpsective. If I recall right it's 3 blended aspects: 2-layer time -dependent of deeper layer vs surface recency, then opinionated by human Climo and Mets. It 'sounds' good on paper that way, but mmm When wells are supplying, area res are 80+ if not topped, and rivers a meandering just fine, something seems off with all that orange.

Route 9 in Chestnut Hill.

He never listens.

Peabody route 1

Indeed, this latest CFS mean has about the strongest 3.4 yet whether relative or not: Relative now peaks at +3.0C in BOTH SON and OND for the first time that I’ve seen: Of the ones I’ve saved, the prior highest CFS was this one from June 1st. It was also +3.0C in OND but was only +2.9C in SON:

1.5” 24 hour total for Greenfield

Was on a morning run when that came over me. Nice sized drops w/ visibility down to about 1/3 mile. Hot non-A/C house feels nice now being soaked . Window is open w/ outside temps in the upper 60sF.

June 23 2002: Just a few weeks after torrential rains hit the area, another round of heavy rain hits northern Minnesota. This time up to eight inches would fall in a two-day period in parts of Mahnomen and St. Louis Counties. For Tuesday, June 23, 2026 1902 - The temperature at Volcano Springs, CA, soared to 129 degrees to set a June record for the U.S. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1944 - Four tornadoes killed 153 persons and caused five million dollars damage in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maryland. The tornadoes formed during the evening and moved southeast along parallel paths flattening everything in their way. The town of Shinnston WV was leveled, and was left with the majority of the casualties. Until that time it was believed that damaging tornadoes did not travel across mountainous terrain. (David Ludlum) 1957 - A few miles west of Fort Stockton TX, softball size hail injured 21 persons unable to find shelter, mostly farm laborers. Some livestock were killed. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A massive hailstorm hit eastern Colorado causing an estimated 60 to 70 million dollars damage. At La Junta, CO, hail as large as softballs caused 37 million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirty-four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The reading of 90 degrees at Bluefield, WV, equaled their record for the month of June. The record high of 104 degrees at Billings, MT, was their thirteenth of the month. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Six cities in the High Plains Region reported record low temperatures for the date, including Sheridan, WY, with a reading of 38 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms in the eastern U.S. deluged New Castle County, DE, with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 23 Tue National Hydration Day 23 Tue International Women in Engineering Day 23 Tue National Typewriter Day 23 Tue National Let It Go Day 23 Tue National Pink Day 23 Tue International Widows' Day 23 Tue Let it Go Day 23 Tue National Detroit Style Pizza Day 23 Tue National Family Owned & Operated Businesses Day 23 Tue National Pecan Sandies Day 23 Tue National Porridge Day 23 Tue Pink Flamingo Day 23 Tue United Nations Public Service Day 23 Tue Olympic Day

Looks like some more rain later this afternoon for south coast. Islands might be the best spot

Not as chilly this morning with lows in the upper 30's/40's. Highs around 70 again, but chance of rain moving later today into tonight. That will be welcome.

Steady but fairly light, so maybe a quarter inch.

A little later than the developing super El Niños in 2023, 2015, and 1997. Those years all had record amplitudes in MJO 7-2 during March. AMJ 2023 and 1997 were also focused in these phases also

Precip headed our way looks like it will just train over our area and give us a good steady soaking.

Starting this weekend through the Fourth looks like some summer temps are coming. Numerical models and humans looking at Nino and teleconnections promise it's brief. Talking the week in question; then, back to where we are now. Hopefully those signals for just one week hold!

models don't have much city and north....maybe another .25 south?