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...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in advance of the surface low and cold front. As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas. Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon. Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence of favorable effective SRH. Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region, eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. An initially separate regime of storm development and severe potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging outflow winds. Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat through the evening as it spreads southeastward. Storm Prediction Center Jul 17, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

yeah certainly could see some flash flooding

It took a couple stills from my videos from last night.I was adjacent to the Point rock tunnel in Colombia Pa. The route 30 bridge as only a few hundred yards in front of me, you can just make it out If you look closely. Between the mayflies and the smoke, you couldn't even see vehicle lights for more than a few hundred feet.

Might be some flood risk if those storms train in CT.

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link? 384hr 12z GEFS

Not hatched but a 5% tornado threat in NYS

Is the 2011 tornado damage still visible across the street in the woods?

Just can't seem to get the storms around my area for some reason. There have been storms around daily for a couple of weeks now, but I've really had very little rain. And WAY less thunder than a normal July. This should be the wettest month of the year here. Even today we are stuck under the anvil of the large storm cluster over northern Atlanta. It's stabilizing us without giving us any rain.

To our west but also within CT along the warm front during the afternoon with potential for supercells/isolated tornado risk. Then a line moving through during the evening with localized wind damage threat

Yeah saw that. I was wondering if that small storm was going to start training but it just went poof over Caroline/Dorchester. The small storm did seem to be associated with the leading line of the smoke moving south east last night.

For who?

Looking at the ECMWF fcst, it remains cold core aloft for the next several days (see 700 temp 48 hr fcst attached), and at 850 elongated N-S w/ a broad wind field (see 850 winds 60 hr fcst attached). Not much sfc low reflection. I think they may be a case that aloft it is and will stay impressive w/ lots of deep convection/decent swirl, but low-levels struggle to organize. We've seen this before and it looks great on satellite, and some ppl are going, "I can't believe NHC has not declared this yet!" But sfc observations and microwave data show a low-level center ill-defined and/or not tight.

Hey Rockingham county, could you share your storms? Thanks

I've installed a few battery (only) back-ups. Believe it or not, Briggs and Stratton was the brand I installed. They make battery back up modules for some reason. Anyway, I don't think they are great for a stand alone system. They are super expensive and obviously will run out if there is a long outage (more than a day or 2). But, if your power company charges a higher rate during peak times (3-10 pm), you can program the transfer switch to allow you to use battery power during those times and then charge them with grid power overnight when it's cheaper. So there's that... If money was no option, the perfect system would be a combo of solar and battery. The panels power your house and charge the batteries during the day and you run off battery power for the evenings/overnight. Wouldn't use much grid power during spring/summer/fall.

it's glorious out there right now. heading to Brimfield tomorrow for an antique sweat fest turned wash out no doubt

Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. The greatest risk is tomorrow night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -27.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.683 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Smoke has vanished in Vienna.

18z HRRR pretty ominous

A SPC 45% damaging wind probability is … high Next Tuesday to me even looks like a higher chance of severe. Have a Death Cab For Cutie concert at Merriweather Tuesday night and already and making plans to not go.

84/47 ... lot of mid 40s dps. Our source tomorrow is behind a warm boundary smearing through circa 10am to 2 ... after which we sector wedge 88/72's like lower Michigan - maybe. Getting from here to there seems like a warm over instability op tonight.

Yeah, northern edge has pushed south into eastern PA and NJ. WV looks relatively clear. But a firehose of smoke pointed right at central MD

Stuck in a holding pattern. NY airspace closed. Probably some douch bag's son is late for a golf lesson.

Looks like MD has the worst of the plume on vis sat.

Ratcheted up quickly. $500 dollar voucher was the initial offer.