All Activity

The Indian Ocean into West Pacific wasn’t anywhere near as warm back in 1972, 1982, and 1997 during those developing super El Niños. This is one of the reasons that those years didn’t feature the record warmth that we have from had from March, April, May,June, and into July in the East. The other reason is probably the record mid latitude SST warmth that didn’t exist back in those days. All of these features including the much warmer planet overall are contributing factors.

you know .. this reminds me. I really wanna create an index: Integrated Heatwave Energy. It would not have to apply strictly to whether 90 F, then 3-consecutive days. Different discussion. This could be calculated for any degree(s) over any time(s). It's not just for show and tell. The index could also be calculated for heat waves in the past and be useful to climate during this era of D(c). Past data is readily available if not reconstruct -able. I'm thinking using hydrostatic heights over time, then combined with the kinetic surface readings. This, because the hydrostats have the water already integrated into the column, so the enthalpy can be derived out out of that mass, then added to the kinetic enthalpy of the time based integral in question ( so if it's 99 for 2 hours ...that actually is less thermodynamic total energy than 92 for 10 hours..etc) Something like that. The energy that's contained can then be used to scale and rank these events. I bet there's been some dewy heat in the past that would rank sneaky high, probably higher even than some kinetic bombs of lore. I've seen it be 95 in May over DPs of 53 several times. It felt pretty damn hot. But 89.5/76 is dwarfs that for #of a Hiroshima bombs available to the system.

Falls Lake after yesterday's rain saw a little bump. I assume it will drop again during the heatwave but the bleeding has stopped temporarily:

Looks like its about to split

It's like a massive supercell MCS Those storm tops may be exceeding 70,000 feet lol

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (2021) NYC: 101 (1934) LGA: 98 (2021) JFK: 99 (1959) Lows: EWR: 56 (1968) NYC: 52 (1919) LGA: 59 (1995) JFK: 55 (1995) Historical: 1826: Thomas Jefferson made his last entry in his weather observation log on this date, just six days before he died. The weather held a fascination for Jefferson as he made regular weather observations. He bought his first thermometer while working on the Declaration of Independence and his first barometer shortly after that. 1878: The weather observer on top of Colorado's Pike's Peak noticed that a major storm remained stationary over South Park, some 50 miles away. The observer also noted that the whitened ground from hail could be seen until sunset. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1899: A great flood occurred on the Brazos River in Texas. The flood waters reached a width of 12 miles and caused $10 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1907: A tropical storm moved from the Gulf of Mexico to coastal North Carolina, where it dissipated. The remnants moved north and combined with a cold front moving in from the Ohio valley, producing two days of widespread severe weather through the 29th. In some areas, rainfall amounts ranged from 3 to 6.73 inches, producing flooding that exceeded the flooding of tropical storm Agnes in 1972. Thunderstorms also produced high winds, hail and tornadoes, including F2 tornadoes at Edgemont, PA where debris from a destroyed garage was carried three-quarters of a mile away. Eight people were killed, six by drowning in swollen streams or rivers.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1931 - The temperature at Monticello FL hit 109 degrees to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1943" Minimum temperatures were above 75° from 23rd to 28th in Washington, DC and greater than 70°F on June 20th-29th. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1954 - Hurricane Alice dumped as much as 27 inches of rain on the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. The Rio Grande River at Laredo reached a level 12.6 feet above its previous highest mark, and the roadway of the U.S. 90 bridge was thirty feet below the high water. (David Ludlum) 1962: Flooding in Wichita Falls, TX resulted in a quarter million dollar loss in city equipment, man hours, and other city property. The official rainfall total at Sheppard Air Force Base was only 1.64 inches, but other reported rainfall included 2.60 inches in downtown Wichita Falls, and from 4.20 to over 5 inches at Charlie, in northern Clay County. An estimated 300 cars were stranded temporarily on highway 287 near Jolly, when sections of the highway were flooded by over two feet of water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1975: Near Kingsland, Ark.--Lightning struck and killed a 6-year-old and injured her aunt while they were on a family outing on the banks of the Saline River. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region, with reports of large hail and damaging winds most numerous in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Michigan. A tornado near Clare MI was accompanied by softball size hail. In Colorado, an untimely winter-like storm blanketed Mount Evans with six inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1987: In Colorado, an untimely winter-like storm blanketed Mount Evans with six inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Alpena, MI, reported a record low of 39 degrees while Jackson, MS, equalled their record for the month of June with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. Thunderstorms in the central U.S. soaked Springfield MO with 3.62 inches of rain, a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced softball size hail at Kit Carson, while pea to marble size hail caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Philips County, CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: A microburst wind estimated around 150 mph did extensive damage in the town of Streamwood, in the Chicago metro area in Illinois. At least $10 million dollars damage was done to 25 stores and industrial buildings. Radar and eyewitness accounts indicated no rain or thunderstorms in the immediate vicinity of the area at the time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Flash flooding rolled across southeast South Dakota and into northwest Iowa. A phenomenal 6 to 7 inches of rain fell in Dickinson and Emmett Counties during a 3 to 4 hour period. The Des Moines River rose several feet in just a few hours. Ocheyedan received 3 inches in just 45 minutes and Allendorf picked up 2.80 inches in 30 minutes. Many locations in northwest Iowa reported winds in excess of 60 mph, with some locations clocking speeds of 70 to 80 mph. Several tornadoes were also spawned during the evening in Emmett County in the Ringsted area, 3.50 inch hail fell and baseball size hail covered the ground just north of Estherville. Millions of dollars in damage was caused from the thunderstorms across the area. 1993: No river traffic was moving on the 585 miles of the Mississippi River from St. Paul, MN to Cairo, IL and on 535 miles of the Missouri River from Sioux City, IA to the point it joined the Mighty Mississippi. More than 5, 000 loaded barges were stranded. For the first time in history, major floods came down both rivers at the same time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Persistent extreme heat in the Southwest as Arizona 128°F at Lake Havasu City and Nevada 125°F at Laughlin set all-time record high temperatures on the same date. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1998: "The Corn Belt Derecho of 1998" in the following states NE, IA, IL, IN, KY. A derecho which originated in far southeast South Dakota moved across Illinois during the afternoon and evening and continued as far east as Ohio the next morning. Every county in central Illinois sustained some damage, as these severe thunderstorms passed. Winds gusted in the 60 to 80 mph range, with some localized microbursts producing winds more than 100 mph. Significant damage occurred in the microburst areas, including the towns of Morton, McLean, LeRoy, and Tolono. In Tolono, 22 cars of a southbound 101-car Illinois Central freight train were blown off the tracks. It was unknown how many vehicles were picked up by the wind, but 16 cars were turned over, and another six derailed but remained upright. The train was en route to Centralia from Chicago with a load of mixed freight, including plastic pellets and meal. The freight cars empty weighed about 60,000 pounds, while a full one weighs about 260,000 pounds. Overall, 12 people were injured, and damage was estimated at around $16 million. 2003: Tropical Storm Bill made landfall south of Houma, LA with top winds of 60 mph, spreading a six foot storm surge across the low lying portions of the Louisiana Coast. For the second time in two years, the town of Montegut, LA was flooded after the town’s protection levee was breeched. Bill dumped 5 to 8 inches from Louisiana to Alabama. A tornado at Reserve, LA injured four people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: Heavy rains of 3 to 7 inches fell across far eastern Brown, western and northern Day, and most of Marshall Counties in South Dakota during the early morning and again in the afternoon hours. One location measured 5 inches of rain in two hours. In Day County, 30 roads were washed out and 15 bridges were damaged. Some rainfall amounts include 5.04 inches in Britton, 3.34 inches north of Columbia, and 2.08 inches at Aberdeen. Total June rainfall for some locations in Marshall and Day Counties was between 11 and 12 inches. The flooding continued into early July before receding by July 10th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2012: The maximum temperature today was 103 °F at the Richmond International Airport a new record maximum temperature for the date. The old record was 101 °F in 1980. (Records since 1897) The maximum at the West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen station was 102 °F at 4:20 PM. It was the hottest day here since July 22, 2011 when it was also 102 °F. Friday's derecho, a widespread and long-lived violent thunderstorm complex, affected millions of people from Chicago, Ill., to Washington, DC. Strong winds, in many cases in excess of 70 mph, downed numerous trees and power lines from Illinois to Maryland. Over 2 million people were left without power. Winds with derecho -- 86 mph at Wintergreen Mt., 80 mph at Roanoke Airport 71 mph, Dulles 70 mph at Reagan, National 59 mph in Richmond International Airport and only 37 mph in West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. (Ref. Derecho Hits Ohio Valley, VA, MD See Map (Ref. Violent Storms Virginia, Maryland, D.C (Ref. Derecho Damage- 32 pages Worth of Damage Reports 2012: Fifth of the top ten weather events - Mid-Atlantic and Midwest Derecho. June 29. The widespread severe winds associated with the band of rapidly moving thunderstorms (a derecho) left a trail of destruction from Illinois to the mid-Atlantic, leaving some 4.25 million homes and businesses without power, killing 24 people, and costing hundreds of millions of dollars in property

Ha. I lucked out. My actual MIL was a saint

Go to the COD page and watch the 200 frame loop of the radar. It originally formed on the NE/WY border. Accelerated northeast, absorbed or squashed all surrounding convection and turned into this beast. Speaking of which…. What the hell is it? Lol It’s not a supercell, it’s not linear, it’s like an MCB: mesoscale convective blob.

Maybe they went after Americanwx too

74 / 65 clear. Nice day on tap warm / dry - perhaps an isoloated shower or storm later low - mid 80s. The heat is on Tue - Sun/Mon peaking Wed - Sat (7/1 - 7/4) with upper 90s / low 100s in the hottest spots. Ridge position key and storms or MCS around the periphery of the 594 DM will bring isolated - scattered showers Fri - Sat - Sun but by no means a washout. 7/7 - 7/11 looks warm - hot with intense heat pulling back south and west, but still plenty of heat into theeas. Looks like a trough in the 7/12 - 7/15 period to take us back to normal / below before the next roud of heat expands east right after mid month.

Mother In Law visiting for a few days?

Here in the lowlands I never doubt heat. This area is the Oswego County of heat. Just like the Tug, when they call for snow, it always happens, and some. Same here with heat

99, 104, 100 forecast for ASH

Some more shots from yesterday's brief supercell:

Hopefully we can get a noisy visitor Tuesday night or later in the week.

Good luck man! Keep posting.

Looks like the 00z ( GFS anyway ... ) gave back the petty shaves it was stealing off this signal over those runs. There's still gonna be risks of MCS decay plumes ... or if any wayward linear noctural anything sliding under PF's nuts. Those are built in risks tho. Can't really forecast those until the evidence is obvious

The wave started near the Arabian Sea and has been slowly moving east into the MC. It has been destructively interfered with by the Nino and is only able to contribute when it reached the MC because the +AAM temporarily relaxed. Would the west pacific waters in 1997, 1982, 1972 have been cool enough at this point in the summer to stop this forcing? I disagree.

Missed the heaviest stuff yesterday but picked up 0.27”

Holy shit

Missed the heaviest stuff yesterday but picked up 0.27”

Pretty much what dendrite said. Also, add in it’s extremely difficult for us to be directly centered under the ridge so more often than not we’re on the periphery so that opens up the door for high cloud/convective debris. Also, it gets difficult to achieve higher end temps when dewpoints start pushing towards and into the 70’s

you're gonna need a bigger Thailand sub-forum

Good morning South Dakota