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This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution.

Oh, if no one knew there were some weather models added/ upgraded December 17th. AIGFS, AIGEFS and HGEFS ImplementationImplementation of the initial versions (v1.0) of the AIGFS, AIGEFS and HGEFS https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-89_AIGFS_AIGEFS_and_HGEFS.pdf

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada

I'll tell you what, I may have missed the mark on my first two-week KU window...I went with a slight chance Dec 1-15 out deference to 1981, but if I were to do it right now, I would tab about Jan 8-22, or 10-24th....others have mentioned this time frame, and I could see a phase-changer to herald in my +TNH regime. BAM tossed out Dec 30,2000 and Jan 7, 1996 (displaced north and probably not as excessive) as potential analogs and they were both seasons were in my package (the former is the main analog).

interesting NAMs....contrats Jeff.

Yeah and GFS has been pretty juicy as well.

Still within the realm of possibility if the Euro has the right idea.

How's that high in the 50's you bet on for Christmas Day looking? LOL!!

MBY could be AN for December snowfall by Monday... that would be nice 10" so far... probably a couple more tomorrow. then we see what happens

didn't jan 3 2022 suddenly appear out of nowhere because of a block?

If you want something more optimistic. 6z HRDPS would probably be best case outcome. 3-5 for almost all of SNe

@Mount Joy Snowman fun fact: as of this morning, here are two seasonal snowfall totals that I find interesting: Itstrainingtime's house: 5.5" Mammoth Lakes, CA: 4" It has been an historically awful start to the ski/winter season in CA. There are bare spots on Mammoth right now...that's just ludicrous in late December. Good news for them, things are changing in a big way this week. Snow arrives in town tomorrow and by the weekend there should be at least 3-4' in town with at least double that on the mountain.

One of my favorite blizzards back in Long Beach with some of the best drifting.

Both 3k and 12k are pretty paltry for SNE tomorrow. Would be hard to go more than 1-2"....however, NAM has been on the more paltry side of guidance for several runs now, so TBD if it ends up trending juicier.

No model is showing below normal temperatures on Christmas in your backyard. GFS is coldest, with upper 30s to near 40, which is normal. Euro is showing closer to a +10 departure.

I don't think so....not with the PV on our side of the hemisphere. We would get some warm days, but there would always be cold spells in the wake of storms. Would probably suck for snow, though.

I'd like to know as well. I'll admit I've paid zero attention to tonight...just so busy right now getting ready for Santa. What I have heard is it's going to be the essence of a nuisance...anything that we do get will be gone in literally a couple of hours. Of course, it takes just a small amount of wintry precip at the wrong time...

Without it we’d be in shorts for weeks

Yeah that definitely won't happen. I'd still lean towards this probably being too far north for anything here, but there is potential now for something when 2-3 days ago there was none.

Thankfully still below normal, by a fake amount i might add even after record highs!

Nam has about an inch for the coast

I certainly didn't expect big blocking late December...welcome deviation if that comes to fruition.

You can read all about it here starting with this thread from 15 years ago

Funny but. True!!!

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/hrdps/prateptype-imp/us_ne?run=2025122206&forecastHour=48 Also here... the Herpes model