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  1. Past hour
  2. NEG NAO
    Seems like Upton is discounting the widespread regional flood threat for tomorrow and Wednesday. Thoughts ? AFD from KOKX
  3. rclab
    72 in my UHI blessed Brooklyn postage stamp as opposed to 64 at Central Park, probably due to natural air conditioning. As always …
  4. jbenedet
    Gardeners and farmers don’t forget the year ago pattern. It’s imprinted on us like a scar. A few of us here fit that mold.
  5. jbenedet
    If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Highly doubt that persists through winter.
  7. moneypitmike
    The season is not record hot/cold until it's over. Let's' see how the remainder plays out.
  8. jbenedet
  9. pawatch
    54 degrees this morning. Awesome morning! Anyone have an idea when this storms are supposed to start up tomorrow?
  10. bluewave
    94-95 was close to what the Euro seasonal was forecasting and not what verified. The closest actual 500 mb match was a much warmer nationally and less snowy version of 1995-1996 for DJF. Notice how the ridges overpowered the pattern compared to 1996. It was the first weak La Niña since then with a Bering Sea ridge, Baja SW U.S. ridge, and Greenland block. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO in recent years. Ridges have been growing stronger and more expansive. The spring pattern quickly flipped to the standard 2020s pattern.
  11. Kmlwx
    CIPS is not super-honking (the threat is there - it's just more muted). If nothing else - I am hoping for an event where I am working from home for a change (or at least in the area...) That said - a confirmed TOR passed near me up in PA Saturday evening (the Houtzdale/Whiteside, PA one confirmed by CTP). Was a few miles away.
  12. high risk
    There has been a clear trend in the guidance for more favorable timing for our area.
  13. donsutherland1
    The weekly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly rose to +3.6°C during the week centered around July 15. Only the 1982-83 and 1997-98 super El Niño events saw comparable or higher values. The last such anomaly occurred during the week centered around December 24, 1997 (+3.6°C). A strong El Niño is ongoing.
  14. SnoSki14
    Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot.
  15. Today
  16. snowfan
    Quite nice this morning. Low of 64 imby.
  17. jbenedet
    Nah. Tuesday/wed is part of the banner. Wall to wall sun is too much of a good thing. Need the rain to keep the landscape happy and the water bills in check.
  18. Kmlwx
    https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct.
  19. Kmlwx
    Latest CSU MLP guidance
  20. jbenedet
    Is this for Jersey or New England?
  21. moneypitmike
    Woke up to 53* here in Mattapoisett. Progged hights for Pit2 this week: Today 80 Tues 76 Wed 79 with showers. Thurs 80 Fri 71 Sat 72 Sun 73 All in all, I'd call that that COC.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    94-95 was really skewed by February. The rest of that winter (November-January and March) absolutely torched in the Eastern US and was actually cool in the West. I'd say 14-15 was the best match for 25-26.
  23. mahantango#1
    US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·oSnesoprtdah6a1lm6h2himht63569uagm0ct73u14i7tf9gt2c1i2tff16i · A strong low pressure system is expected to bring scattered severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, July 21st. Damaging winds are the primary threat, though all severe weather hazards may be possible. Remember that central Pennsylvania only sees around 5-6 Enhance risks a year. Confidence continues to increase for severe weather on Tuesday.
  24. IrishRob17
    50 for the low here, I see 48 up the road at KMGJ, I nice break from the warmth.
  25. ForestHillWx
    52 here; lovely morning.
  26. kdxken
    Looks like a banner week excluding Tuesday and Wednesday.
  27. MJO812
    63 here
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