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That's what hurts the most. This could have been a great one a week after a massive hit. That plus not seeing much in the near term.

Best analog i can think off the top of my head is Jan 01'...we had thundersnow in tbe Upstate under the ULL...I lived in Rock Hill at the time, and we got 4-6"....temp profile here is 5-7 degrees colder on this storm if my memory serves correctly With the location of the trough to our south, it is a good to great setup for the E Upstate as long as you have a negative tilt....I am quite a bit more confident after seeing the models after metadata from the sampling last night was ingested I feel yout pain- it is like night and day living down here v the other side of 85- I lived on the N side of CLT/Harrisburg for 15 years before moving to TC- we would typically have at least 2 good storms a year up there

my son has an overnight field trip to the dunes (in winter lol) thurs/fri, bus gonna get stuck in da plume on the way home

Jan 4-6th. 16.8” with that system. Do you want to take away the squalls that we had early morning on the sixth? Then It was 15.3 inches. That’s a big dog. Locally

What’s the trick for getting more moisture thrown back our way? ULL needs to be more SW?

the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn

What are you thinking for here in Dry Fork south east of you ?

But apparently even that got 5 inches up this way...wasn't a complete cutoff! I'd settle for that, lol

I bet it gets busy in here tomorrow night

Hampton roads has had more big snows then Baltimore the last 5 years. They keep winning

Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case

Early on the Canadian looks better.

No southern stream to pull up gulf moisture like 2010. No northern stream to tug the low north like January 2000. The 500mb low doesn't track over us like the PD1. We go home empty handed.

CMC big hit

The ULL was a little slower and that trailing shortwave got a little more SE…maybe it feeling a bit of a “pull” last minute? I wish this s/w would just dive in sooner behind it.

Still not climbing as much as I want to get off the bottom.

It's probably blasphemy to say that I would be thrilled with 7 inches and let the ENC fellows have the 24 inches that the GFS shows. There are too many problems that come with 2 feet of snow! I know I am a stranded loner on an island by myself with that opinion, lol!

I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event.

With Monken we ride!!!!!

Long ways still to go with this one but Id be shocked if this doesnt move North 100 miles in the next 48 hours....

GFS really going to stick to their guns here. That is a very nice statewide win and here in Winston-Salem I would gladly take that snow and let the coast celebrate those big numbers. .

1980. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview#:~:text=On the afternoon and evening,eastern part of the state.

Do you feel like the models may be underestimating the precip shield or is it going to be more congealed, based around the baroclinity and then throwing it back? The wild card here is obv the ULL. Stronger that stays during it's trek of traversing better opportunity for folks further away from SLP forming off Hatteras.

...for ACK.

I mean.. if it was over us I'd fully expect a 300 mile north jump. Happens all the time for southern NY. It looks like our storm and in the last 24 they go north. We can do that, right? RIGHT!?