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Temp -1F right now . Stupid winds blowing.

I actually agree with this but without the crazy stupid 1960 comp Dude can’t just make a projection without comparing it to the most extreme example of what he is talking about.

WB's JB just released an updated video. His take is that there will be warmup after the upcoming week, followed by a cool down as we head into the end of the month into March. Reasoning: return of a negative WPO and his belief that the NAO will trend more negative. He cites similarities to 56 and 60.

Taking a nice walk. Temp is 6.

18z AIFS was our win scenario. all ens guidance now shows this at day 5. This general idea seems locked in now The decaying nao block X has retrograded to Hudson Bay. There is a strong 50/50 feature Y from a strong wave that was forced under the retrograding block. The pacific wave Z is entering the southwest. The flow in front of it will prevent it from gaining too much latitude so long as it ejects quickly. Yes the pacific has gone to absolute shit. But because the antecedent pattern was good we have a window of opportunity here. We want a healthy wave to eject and as quickly as possible imo. The 18z AIFS did this. The 18z EPS looked like it was also but doesn’t go out far enough. But I’ll take this… the gfs products are washing more of the wave out and absorbing most of it into the approaching north pacific trough. This means a weaker delayed wave. that’s a loss BTW a “Hudson High” regime actually used to be a cheat code to a snowstorm here absent other features we typically look for PNA, NAO… historically I found numerous Baltimore snowstorms where a high there seemed to be the main feature and it snowed despite flaws elsewhere. But I’ve noted those have gone extinct recently and that some recent examples ended up slightly too warm and “perfect track rainstorms” A recent example was a storm around the Super Bowl in 2023 I think. This will be a good test to see if this can still work! Assuming a wave ejects.

Euro rotates an IVT down too over the Cape…but the main event is pretty paltry. Maybe an inch.

Agreed. Low teens with no wind is actually invigorating to me. What's going on out there right now though is as brutal as I can remember.

For the first time since February 4, 2023, Bridgeport, Central Park, Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains have all registered daily low temperatures below 10°. Through 8 pm, the average low for the seven cities is 7.4°. On February 4, 2023, it was 2.9°.

I have been radiating this past week, down to -11F one of those mornings. Hoping the wind and any clouds help here this am; currently at 7F

well I know that lol its kind of like when Florida is 40 and everyone thinks its freezing

With wind too. None of the radiator stuff people yap about around here.

without the cold air advection we would not be as cold as we are now..so the gusty winds is what made it this cold today..

It's been incredibly consistent in that general look over the past couple days

2.3" final here. Just need a few more to reach climo...

2.8" total here.....might have been more, it snowed most of the day, but it was blowing everywhere

2.0 Coldest temp of the season at 7:52pm, I may get below zero before midnight. Doesn’t happen here too often. Like every 3-5 years. Coldest I’ve seen is -11 Feb 2016.

The cold is unbearable. I'm not somebody that shivers generally but this is legit shiver cold, the wind just makes it absolutely brutal.

The -AO trough is lifting out, as the Polar Vortex places over Alaska at Days 3-5, flushing out the cold and warming up the US pattern. Then the N. Pacific High starts building and establishing. At that point we are already in the Upper 30s, with no cold air reinforcement: The -NAO/-AO is weakening and lifting out. The N. Pacific ridge then gets very strong, a >5820dm block. That does overwhelm weak things in February where the wavelengths are longer. Of course, the further along we go, the warmer it gets.

Some places in the Litchfield hills today were below zero all afternoon after the front went through that’s extremely impressive .

Yep, we probably make it to 5 or a couple degrees lower then steady. The strong wind allows the city to cool down and eliminate UHI but also keeps us from really radiating.

1.8”

That take assumes the Pacific immediately overwhelms everything downstream, which isn’t how these transitions usually work. A strong NPAC ridge doesn’t automatically squash an EC trough, especially with lingering -AO influence and a trough tucked under higher-latitude ridging. Neutral NAO doesn’t equal warm rain by default. At this range, ensembles are smoothing over key timing and structural details, so declaring this dead based on a broad Pacific signal seems dumb.

8.5 here, lowest so far this winter is 7.7, I think we’ll beat that (unfortunately).

Dude they're 20-30 degrees further north lol