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Dahua is the brand...

Huge day win for most of the forum! Especially considering where we were psychologically about 48 to 72 hours ago

Why is that?

Didn’t think I was going to have to pull the tractor out for this two day event. I think I’ve got about 6 inches of fluff between these two storms. Definitely a win for a long lasting snow pack, and some insulation. Hopefully we don’t hit 15 below and ruin the peaches. In fact, if that cold that is model just backs off a little bit it’ll probably let that storm run up here closer.

The AO is a little too much as currently depicted. However, the PNA will have a quick dip which could help pump the SE ridge enough.

Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.

Totally. Feb could torch and I'd grade this winter B- This has been lovely.

Yeah, suppression is by far the most likely fail scenario, especially if you sort of lump that in with "basically no storm because the shortwave doesn't really eject".

I know this is perhaps meant as a semi-humorous downer post but...ironically, the GFS was kinda showing just that in the 12Z Saturday run, before it then proceeded to suppress things too much.

The currently depicted h5 pattern on the majority of guidance would have to be way off in order for that to happen. Ofc if you wanna ride with the UKie and Experimental Canadian model then maybe. It would likely take a phase of the shortwave energy dropping southward from the Pac NW with the Baja vortex and ejecting it all together.

Nice. Was riding this past wknd with Dryslot up in Eustis. Trails were good there, especially by the NH border. Heading to Jackman for fri/sat riding, but not liking the cold predicted for sat. Definitely will need the gauntlets, but the Doo ones don't fit well on my Polaris.

Remarkable consistency.

I haven’t read much about the AI mods… what calibrations did they make to the euro AI for it to show a different scenario from the original euro? Do we know? .

I sure did...I was reading it while eating breakfast and making coffee lol.

Not saying anything will happen this weekend. Perhaps the suppressed look is correct and we end up high & dry. But looking back, the 2016 storm, PDII, the ‘96 blizzard and many other MESC were all initially modeled to miss us to the south.

If this new storm next weekend evolves, does that mean the deep south will see a severe weather outbreak as well?

Just over 6”

Just absolutely absurd. They gotta fix this. Bills fans must be so pissed

Kinda hard to say that it's a definitive shift south per se. I mean, yeah, the axis of max amount shifts a bit that way but a couple of things. First (and as you say) this is out to 144h, there's still surely at least some more beyond that time. Next, notice how the max area actually expands or widens (looking at the dark blue and higher area). Probably nothing, but still interesting perhaps. And really at this point it's more or less noise. Catching up on the last several pages here (and...ahem!...ignoring certain posts!), I agree with the overall idea that we're in a pretty good spot, taking into account the AI models, GFS, Euro, GEFS, EPS, and even the CMC. Others probably already said this, but while a more suppressed solution is clearly on the table here (seems like a "cutter" is much less likely right now), even if we're on the northern edge of the best stuff we still would get a really solid amount of cold smoke. Would we all like to end up in the max zone? Yeah of course (duh!)!! But a warning-level event through this region even on the "edge" isn't something I'd sneeze at.

Supposedly the Euro AI has been trained on 80 years of ERA 5 data

I was in Philly for that storm and it was tremendous. A lot of small flakes and Arctic sand though but still 18 inches with a lot of sleet at the end on top of that. But I think there was some hugely anomalously jet that was like five standard deviations above normal or something.

Not sure where you all live, but it’s been a cold winter with decent snow pack in spurts out this way, but for the week long mild-up. There’s easily 6” on the ground and it was 9 this morning when I went out to start shoveling again.

Question… obviously the GFS/Euro use past events to help with modeling. Does the AI mods get samples from the GFS/Euro or is its algorithm separate from its originals. The reason I’m asking this is because we have had a lot of cutters since the AI mods have been out which would make sense why those are showing cutters now assuming they do not get past event samples from the original mods. .

Your self awareness is on point

lol thanks i was like huh, he must have read that wrong