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The NAM is also a bit more robust with clouds/precip Wednesday too

..it doesn't have to be a super nino..

55 here The only snow left are the huge piles.

About 50% of the yard is bare..and the backyard still had some areas with 6-7" this morning. It will all be a dream by tonight

That is a nasty nasty BD on the NAM... has Boston plummeting to the upper 30s on Wed ... 24 hour ahead of the main front. It's probably got boundary layer lag bias. It's the same reason why it can't warm the BL sufficiently at this time of year in general - today, etc..; they've sort of designed a model that over assesses the Ekman stuff. That said... it's also hard to argue BDs in eastern NE at any time of year, let alone f'um March.

Tooooorrrccchhhh!!!

This isn’t something that is just within reach, this is a whole significant pattern change… It’s completely different in my opinion. And if you read my previous post, I said we better see some big changes at 12z today. It’s about 7ish days out. Big difference from 10 days out.

57.7 here, might be nearing my max temp potential for the day.

Even the piles left here are quickly dwindling in this heat. 62 here

We just had a (planned) fire drill. The difference between the feeling in the sunshine vs the shade was impressive. Buh bye snowpack

Lol…ya that’s up in the air at this early point. I’m not sold on a super Nino. But we’ll worry about that next August/September.

..and if el Nino turns next winter into a non winter the same people will be complaining..

60! warmest it's been since sometime in autumn

Feels hot if you stand in the sun.

Lol…if I had a dollar for ever time you, or others have said this this year…same shit every single time. There’s plenty of time for changes. Again, not saying this will do that, just saying there’s more than enough time. That time frame has potential..but it’s still out there. We watch. Everything this year has come closer in…we watch.

61 already. Forecast high is 61. Going to blow past that by noon

Gotta love this time of year BOS for tomorrow 6z MAV: 66 0z MET: 52 7z NBM: 62 We've reached the time of year where the NAM is as useless as ever with temperatures (unless there is a front overhead/nearby) or we have CAD.

Need to be weaker

Well, if you want a snowier solution, we better see some bigger changes at 12Z today. Otherwise that’s gonna take quite the overhaul to change the solution.

Makes zero sense because there is plenty of oil currently in the US

I get it…overnight runs verbatim show that. But do we know if that trough will actually be that sharp 8-10 days from now? we don’t. That’s an easy fix at this lead…just like the run before 0z showed a hit. If we were talking 4 days away, different story. I don’t really care if it cuts or not…bring the nice weather. But the nice weather will be gone after mid week, and the pattern is conducive, so we watch of course. No worries either way.

Most of the short range guidance trending towards keeping the front crashing south to I-80. Last week WAA won out but I don’t think that will be the case this time around, unless RRFS is onto something. Looks pretty ominous. Not a fan of the 8-2am storm time, hopefully the timing will keep things from getting too out of hand south and west of here.

I think the record for this date was 77 in 2016. Can we break?

Could see some showers with thunder develop around/after daybreak Wednesday morning on the nose of the advecting MUCAPE

AIs have something brewing for ski country. Where snow should be in March and April. .