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It’s going to be a battle in January I think of which one gives in first. If it’s the NAO winter is probably done for if we assume we get the February most expect we do based on the IOD/ENSO. If it’s the PNA maybe we can get a crazy 2-3 weeks. I’d still lean towards February probably being bad but in La Niña to El Niño transition years we’ve seen March sometimes be good

I asked @OceanStWx about that and supposedly it had better results over GFS op (early testing anyways) but didn’t perform as well in anomalous events which one would expect when a model is training on past events. The other thing he said is that each vertical level is trained independently, so it’s possible the 500mb pattern may not match what you’d think to see for MSLP.

Yeah, Larry is a great Asset to American Weather in pretty much all Aspects. Great guy with a Ton of Research Data and Information along with Meteorological Knowledge and Skill.

Our robot overlords will remember heresy like this...

so what you're saying is let's make a thread

But AI handled the advection of cirrus clouds very well between the hours of 9:00 PM - 12:00 AM so maybe it will do well the next time we have cirrus advecting in!!!!!!!!

To me, it’s a trace of it falls. Saying it has to be white on the grass would be like saying you need at least something in the gauge for rain. I’ve just looked at a trace as almost nothing, but at least something fell. TW

it got confused and thinks this is the Southern Hemisphere?

Fantastic. More A.I. garbage in, garbage out content

TBH, science is almost always corrupted by money n politics to some degree. Going to have to leave it there.

I 100% agree. I’ve always considered a trace measurable and shocked that it’s not. So maybe I now have beef with the NWS interpretation of a trace. But I’ve had a long standing frustration with the NWS on their PR front. They need to hire a few PR firms to assist in overhauling their public facing language. My biggest gripe: “Marginal, slight, moderate, high, extreme.”

95" in 30 days is not only the highest 30-day snowfall in BOS, but more than any 30-day period in any major city in the country. (BUF had 80" in a week in Dec 2001 but very little on either side; Orchard Park has seen more but BUF is a smaller city and the totals are banded mesoscale, not the synoptic 90"+ around BOS.) I think Sapporo has had a couple of 100" months, and it's probably the only large (2m+) city to have ever seen a heavier 30-day snowfall than that 30-day period in BOS.

NWS Milwaukee is highlighting an elevated chance of snow squalls moving W to E across southern Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening

low of 28F at DCA and 36F up here at around 380' in upper NW. Not typical lol.

Been thinking same thing. Looks pretty obvious actually, imo. As with the pattern we've been in, regardless if there might be a difference in evolution or trough axis they'll possibly show a similar outcome in snow forecast and show those area's that's had plenty (Southern Va/Northern NC) getting snow and us rain or just more snow than us. I'm not saying that won't be what happens, particularly with a CAD wedge pattern. That stuff goes into the Model's (Models ingest System) and since they've not been going long as you alluded to, it makes sense.

Yea I wasn’t speaking to you, your post was just last in line for the other ones arguing about measurable snow. People saying the maps were wrong bc they hadn’t had any measurable and were showing up as a TR was really who it was directed to. Rather be arguing over 6 to 8 in or whether one spot hits blizzard criteria, not who has picked up 0.10” and who hasn’t

I suspect that when it comes to snowstorms in parts of the Southeast, more is involved than the pattern itself. Synoptic details are critical and outweigh the teleconnections. One sees a similar outcome in the spring in the Middle Atlantic region as wave lengths shorten and the state of the teleconnections becomes less important.

up to 43 here with full sun snow melting fast in exposed areas

Yes, I use the stratus for that.

Any likelihood of delays at Logan early Saturday morning? Our son is taking a redeye out of LAX into BOS arriving at 5:30am. We're staying overnight about 20 minutes away to pick him up bright and early but am curious what the outlook is for possible delays.

Looks like there is now an AI version of the GFS on TT. Add yet another model for us to use !

Yeah I can role with that. I worked that storm so it’s the only one where I felt that I could be off by 3-5”. I just remember thinking holy shit did I really get like 33-34”? Especially when I woke up to 3-4” more after that burst of snow we had from 8-11pm on the last night. So maybe I was near 130. It’s super tough in my spot when we have wind.

Near 60

Festive Christmastime spinnys