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Definitely a possibility. Or both camps could be completely wrong

Leave at 5 or 6 AM. You will hit snow rather than ZR at the end of your in trip in NYS, at least if the HRRR is true. 18z NAM is a little slower with the snow/sleet/ice.

I'll give a cap tip to the GFS if it ends up sniffing this one out, It just gives more confidence, That a major system is in play on a threat when you have the 2 major global models onboard instead of one on an island.

Can you arrest yourself for indecent exposure?

BMG gusted to 70MPH. The couplet looks to have passed just about overhead.

I was up too. Was 3 doors down at a friends for the night. Mom calls to say come home to watch my sleeping sisters, dad was out of town.. she needed to run to the gas station. She got milk and all that after seeing the news. I went back to friends, where I stayed for 3 days haha

One 18z suite does not make a trend. 00z is a coincidence. 12z would be a trend.

Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.

what if it's a compromise, doesn't need to be 0 or 1

Anyone confident on what tonight's runs will show? Does anyone have that Para CMC run?

Whos ready for the biggest long range NAM hallucination run of the winter!

Mark the day Feb 19, 2026. Watershed event, king EURO dethroned!

he who is without sin.....

From the MA forum wow.

And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow. I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.

Ridge is a little more amped (might be due to closer in = more consolidation, not necessarily change in signal), but check out the difference in strength and orientation of 50/50 low. Undeniable, allows heights to build antecedent to s/w which fixes the trough axis. If this hits, it’ll have to be bc of prior SWFE event getting TF outta the way

In cruiser? cc @MamdaniWx

Didn't expect to see the eps look like that

Big cc drop

It was awesome. I stayed up to watch it…it came in like a wall right off the Atlantic. The models were on vacation.

EPS

Yeah. But without an inverted trough none of us (except the Eastern Shore) get snow from those LP positions. Although that aligns really well with the past decade. So there is that.

A bunch of members on the western side

Did it get new data ingested? Wild shift even for the op basically at NAM range.

Check out the precipitation shift between 12z and 18z on the EPS. As PSU mentioned, right here it looks like the coastal being closer helps to intensify the inverted trough. I'm trying to keep expectations in check but it sure feels good to be back in the game for this one!