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I can get down wit dat

1-3. Better confidence 1-2.

That radar in NY state looks pretty solid

Gfs still steady

You have a forecast? Hard and fast not iffy

There are only a handful of ensemble members showing snow in south-central Virginia. Of those, there are a few outliers showing significant amounts of snow, and they are skewing the snowfall mean.

When they retire the Nams they can take the HRRR with them, I think the only place it’s accurate for is Stowe VT

#2!

Nice day with 48ºF here currently. Some melting but dewpoint’s around 30 and it’s not all that windy today. Eastern PA holding onto chillier temps as progged, while temps did overachieve in the central and western parts of the state today. SW PA is way into the 50s. I see a lot of guidance the last couple runs are killing the storm threat for the weekend taking it way south, but I’m gonna remain indifferent to that prospect for now. Sure it could happen, but we’re also currently in that time range where models like to do such things for whatever reason. We went through a good bit of this with the 1/25 storm as well. So I’m not writing anything off yet.

I think so too. We’ll see.

Natural snows been absent.

It’s wrong.

^lol I am agreeing with you. Will posted the Control run.

HRRR is a trace for Tolland. Either it will make a score or be terribly wrong.

In the 14-15 season, and in the January ‘22 storm it was all longitudinal. Latitude can and does matter in marginal situations for sure, but for those set ups as you agreed, it was longitude. I mean in the past 4-5 sucky years we’ve done better here with several systems that sucked out east…so it has its ups and downs as done anywhere.

Icon would have been further north this run if it extended beyond 120hrs. That Lakes vort showed up unlike 12z and 700mb RH was noticeably further north. Heights along the coast were higher too.

I turned my thermostat up to 70 given the relative warmth outside. Heat pump not working so hard and I dont need to start a fire to keep it from running constantly. Kinda liking this.

Hope we get a good inversion before the snow melts. I love pea soup fog!

Lol

I have my AC on in my office, it's sweltering today.

Yes it is the "right" map- if there is such a thing 40 fucking days out. It's the mean. He loves the Control run for some reason.

DT is ending winter based on the GFS MJO that takes it strongly into 4,5,6 meanwhile Euro loves the non impact neutral circle

Yeah its actually 'caving" a bit to the GEFS, which hasn't been as enthusiastic about the favorable look in the NA or the western trough weakening/progressing eastward after the 20th. We shall see.

so winter is over over

i dont even know what he is posting lol. This is the right map