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  2. mahantango#1
  3. mahantango#1
  4. mahantango#1
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like NOAA adjusted October 2024 and July 2025's PDO numbers down slightly. I believe Oct 24 was -3.85, now it's -3.24, and I think July 2025 was <-4, now it's -3.83 March 2026 has been adjusted from -1.44 to -1.2
  6. WinterWolf
    Yup. Folks like Greta, Al Gore and the like…all silly morons. Al Gore now saying an ice age coming in 25 yrs. 20 yrs ago he said no more snow. WTTTE.
  7. Spartman
    CPC sticks a fork in May this year
  8. WinterWolf
    Wow…didn’t know a chicken would eat a little frog like that. Did the chicken eat it? Or just kill it? Interesting.
  9. BlizzardWx
    You are right that it should be that way, but my suspicion is that the NOAA numbers are so low because its imbalanced. But yes, I don't know that, just a theory.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC is disregarding it completely, but their seasonals have not been better than C+/B- grade as you and I have assessed, over the last 15 years.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm.
  12. BlizzardWx
    One thing to keep in mind with the PDO is that depending on how you calculate it, it's not necessarily balanced. By that I mean that the main area east of Japan, depending on how you calculate it, can be both larger in area and have a stronger weighting than the half ring around it. This matters, particularly in a warming climate. As warm conditions everywhere can bias the PDO calculation negative for these reasons. In fact I think this already happens with the NOAA calculation. My page and the WCS seem to handle this a bit better but likely not adequately. @bluewavehas talked about how the PDO is becoming less useful with time and this is part of the reason why.
  13. Rjay
    May DCA: -1.5 NYC: -1.5 BOS: -1.5 ORD: -1.8 ATL: 0.0 IAH: +2.0 DEN: +3.5 PHX: +2.5 SEA: +2.0
  14. GaWx
    That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.
  15. GaWx
    May DCA: -0.6 NYC: -0.3 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -1.6 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.6 SEA: +2.8
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for the reminder! May DCA: -0.7 NYC: -0.6 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -1.8 ATL: -0.1 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +3.1 PHX: +2.4 SEA: +3.6
  17. so_whats_happening
    @dmillz25 @Stormchaserchuck1 @Rjay
  18. michsnowfreak
    January 2024 actually was a decent winter month here. It was shockingly (for a strong nino) the wettest january on record at Detroit. Which jives with what you mentioned about strong ninos being wetter. There was a big cold snap mid month and the Plains actually finished the month colder than avg. It was the warm and very low snow December and February that made it such a bummer. This is a pic from Jan 2024. Much of the month resembled what winter in MI should. The problem is Dec and Feb didnt.
  19. KamuSnow
    We have a shagbark hickory tree that is kind of half leafing out, the other half not so much. It's unusual enough to concern me. The 1st noticeable casualty was a wisteria that was leafing out and had flowers, and it got fried. All the leaves are brown (and the sky is gray) and falling off. Hoping for full recovery!
  20. michsnowfreak
    Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.
  21. Torch Tiger
    much rather cad than coast
  22. Blizzard of 93
    Let’s go Sixers! Great team effort!
  23. Met1985
    The NW flow will have to let up which is just starting...
  24. Chief83
    Been reading the issue of the late cold snap having negative effects on the fruit trees and vineyards and wonder if anyone else has concerns about the lack of new leaves on some of the trees. We have several well established older trees that I'm pretty sure startled showing new green leaves a few weeks ago. Now all that new growth ( it was pretty limited) appears to be dead and no new green is seen. Did the new growth freeze?. It could be these trees are a variety of naturally late getting leaves, but now it is May and they look like a leafless January tree. I don't think they are dead, but I do wonder if or when they will show signs of life. As I drive around I see other trees in the same condition.
  25. rimetree
    April ends about avg. temp wise here but definitely pretty dry. Picked up 0.39 today, which is the most daily precip we've had all month. Looking forward to some active weather coming up.
  26. wncsnow
    Models went way south for a lot of NC. Next.
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