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End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot and early in October

They are

Exactly

12z EURO AI looks pretty much the same as the 6z did

I need hurricanes at this point. Just one or two, but preferably three.

Best thing about the Fall thread is Winter thread is right around the corner. Love the weather last night with the windows open and a nice cool night to sleep.

Don’t worry. In a just a few short months we’ll be sitting in 40pg threads tracking a 1-3” clipper.

Its September

31 this morning, dew on the car roof was still frozen at 8 AM despite full sun. Average for first frost is Sept 20, so slightly tardy this year. Over the past 6 years, 3 of which had first frost in October, the average has become 3 days later.

you know it's boring when we are tracking a regular fall noreaster and rooting for an inch or two of rain.

Happy Fall to you sir! I'll see your cool nights, wind and all-things-pumpkin, and raise you campfires, hoodies, football, and changing leaves. Cheers to all!

2.5” event total in Ashburn, that was good. Feels like fall, finally

Congrats NJ

Once we lost the torch over the last few days .

62F/DP 52F/breezy, mostly cloudy....nice day out there.

Funny thing is, if 1888 or 1938 happened again this place would be on fire with mehing, complaining, complaining about the complaining, and strife. I mean RI got a historic blizzard and pages of the thread were filled with all out warfare accordion man.

All I know is anything that brings some interesting weather is welcome. Doesn't have to be grid destroying events. I have a bit of a wind fetish so anything that checks that box will be nice as seems like a struggle to get anything even moderately stormy...at least in recent autumns. Nice breeze today. 62/53

When did you transition from every storm missing and bermuda blues and a spot shower to destructive windswept rainstorm for days? The equinox?

Nah.. I’m fine either way . Another boring rainer or a tree toppler . Let the chips fall where they may

If it doesn't will you melt?

GGEM looks way way east. With the low-level dry air on western side eating away at precip bands , WNE probably gets a decent weekend!

UKIE slingshots it way west towards coast again. Euro to follow?

1.67" for the event. Solid soaking. The trees and grass are loving it here in the lowlands. I'm personally loving these temperatures! Slept like a bear the last few nights with the windows half opened.

After two weeks if i had any doubt that I couldn't stand Bears and Packers fans all doubt has been removed...yeesh move the f on already you lost

Well I have a hard time seeing Euro AI and ensembles off by 300 miles this close in, but we shall see. I have a lot of people asking me about the weekend, and it's definitely a higher stakes deal. If the euro ai/ensembles and the euro op and ensembles have some sort of consistency at 12z...I would feel more confident in a higher impact especially near the coast. I do expect a little shuffling as usually the case this far out....but I mean no wild swings.