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I was referring to the 0Z Euro op that you had commented on when I said it had the extreme rarity of snow for nearly all active SE members. Not surprisingly, the 6Z 144 vs 0Z 150 showed that was to be taken away from many had that run gone out further.

The second half of January is gonna be rockin'! The last week of January is gonna be rockin'! The first week of February is gonna be rockin'!

I've always said and felt this... Once we enter the -AMO phase (which I believe we're beginning to move into), if we're continuing to see shattering temperature records and continuing the theme of hurricanes taking off and undergoing RI...then we're in a real cause for concern.

@mattie g will appreciate the above. Moving on to the AO, it looks to make a deeper negative dive. PNA after spiking not really looking too bad, as for the NAO, neutral but would not be surprised if it trends negative late month. Snowfall oppurtunities will be there, however, needing extra patience in a Nina, even if we are about to flip to a Nino soon.

That 55% prediction is not very useful without the associated uncertainty. Even if the statistical method used for the sensitivity analysis is sound, there is presumably a large spread considering our lat/lon and the variability of the underlying factors/predictors. It could plausibly end up well above or well below normal for the month.

Monthly Departures through the first 1/3 of the month (1/11) EWR: +3.5 ISP: +2.8 NYC: +2.3 JFK: +2.2 TTN: +1.5 LGA: +1.0

It looks like I am going to be documenting the lake levels in Jordan Lake as opposed to any snowfall.

Fuck Trump

Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (2020) NYC: 68 (2020) LGA: 68 (2017) JFK: 68 (2020) Lows: EWR: -1 (1981) NYC: 2 (1981) LGA: 1 (1981) JFK: 3 (1968) Historical: 1886: With a reading of 26 degrees below zero, Bowling Green, Kentucky, recorded its coldest temperature on record. 1888 - A sharp cold front swept southward from the Dakotas to Texas in just 24 hours spawning a severe blizzard over the Great Plains. More than 200 pioneers perished in the storm. Subzero temperatures and mountainous snow drifts killed tens of thousands of cattle. (David Ludlum) 1888: Children’s or Schoolhouse Blizzard occurred on this day. The blizzard killed 235 people, many of whom were children on their way home from school, across the Northern Plains. 1890: A tornado touched down at St. Louis, Missouri, and crossed the Mississippi River, ending just south of Venice. The worst damage from this tornado occurred in St. Louis. Further east and northeast, one tornado in McLean County passed through downtown Cooksville, destroying at least a dozen buildings, while a tornado in Richland County destroyed four homes northeast of Olney. In all, over 100 homes and other buildings were unroofed or damaged. The storm caused four deaths and 15 injuries. 1911: The thermometer at Rapid City, SD read 49° at 6 AM. Two hours later, the temperature had plunged to -13°, setting a record for a 2-hour temperature drop in the United States. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1912 - The morning low of 47 degrees below zero at Washta IA established a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1912: A strong area of arctic high pressure brought extreme cold to the plains & Upper Midwest. The morning low of -47° at Washta, IA established a state record. The record would be tied on 2/3/1996 at Elkrader. Other locations that reported all-time record lows included: Aberdeen, SD: -46°-Tied, Timber Lake, SD: -46°, Huron, SD: -43°, Norfolk, NE: -39°, Sioux City, IA: -35°, and Winona, MN: -35°. Locations that reported January record lows: Williston, ND: -42°-Tied, Sioux Falls, SD: -38°, Grand Meadow, MN: - 38°, Mauston, WI: -37°, Charles City, IA: -34°, New Hampton, IA: -34°, Grand Island, NE: -29° and Muskegon, MI: -21°. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1916: The coldest MAXIMUM temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 was -44°F in Glasgow, Montana. This followed their all-time record low of -56. (Extreme Weather p. 63, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1918: Many locations from the Plains to the Ohio Valley and Southeast reported record arctic cold. Fort Wayne, IN set their all-time record low with -24° and Bloomington, IL reported their all-time record low of -23°, which was tied 1/20/1985. Memphis, TN tied their January record low with -8°. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1968: La Crosse, WI received 3.5 inches of snow. This was the latest in a winter that La Crosse had gone without having a one inch or greater snowfall. Many locations across the East reported record low temperatures for the date including: Albany, NY: -26°, Burlington, VT: -23°, Portland, ME: -18°, Concord, NH: -16°, Syracuse, NY: -16°, Binghamton, NY: -13°, Buffalo, NY: -11°, Hartford, CT: -11°, Rochester, NY: -11°, Williamsport, PA: -11°, Avoca, PA: -10°, Allentown, PA: -6°, Providence, RI: -3°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: -2°, Worcester, MA: -2°-Tied, Atlantic City, NJ: 0°, Wilmington, DE: 2°, New York (Central Park), NY: 2°, Bridgeport, CT: 3°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 3°, Baltimore, MD: 3 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1981: A bitter cold arctic air mass was in place across the East. Chester recorded Massachusetts’ coldest temperature ever as the temperature dropped to -35°. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Concord, NH: -21°, Syracuse, NY: -18°, Rochester, NY: -15°, Hartford, CT: -14°, Williamsport, PA: -12°, Avoca, PA: -10°-Tied, Worcester, MA: -8°, Providence, RI: -8°, Youngstown, OH: -7°, Milton, MA: -6°, Atlantic City, NJ: -5°, Pittsburgh, PA: -5°-Tied, Harrisburg, PA: -4°, Bridgeport, CT: -3°, Wilmington, DE: -3°, Newark, NJ: -1°, Baltimore, MD: 1°, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 1°, Philadelphia, PA: 1°, Jackson, KY: 2°, Greensboro, NC: 2°, New York (Central Park), NY: 2°-Tied, Oak Ridge, TN: 3°, Lynchburg, VA: 4°, Roanoke, VA: 5°, Raleigh, NC: 6 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1982: Birmingham, AL experienced one of its worst ice storms of the twentieth century as snow swept into Central Alabama around midday. The snow and ice arrived about eight hours earlier than anticipated in the Birmingham area turning roads in skating rinks. Thousands of motorists had to abandon their vehicles on roads and hike home or spend the night in shelters. Atlanta, GA was also hard-hit by the ice storm. An Arctic air mass continued its invasion across the East bringing many record lows for the date including: Syracuse, NY: -25°, Rochester, NY: -15°-Tied, Worcester, MA: -8°-Tied, Lynchburg, VA: 3°, Tallahassee, FL: 14°, Columbus, GA: 16°-Tied, Macon, GA: 17°-Tied, Daytona Beach, FL: 22°, Orlando, FL: 23°, Tampa, FL: 24°, Vero Beach, FL: 25°, Fort Myers, FL: 29°, West Palm Beach, FL: 29° and Miami, FL: 33°. ATLANTA, Georgia had a minimum temperature of -5° F (South FLA. had CITRUS DAMAGE) Temperature fell to -2F at Birmingham, AL. Pensacola, FL fell to 8 °F. Thirty-four record lows were established across the country. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1985 - A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south central Texas. The palm trees of San Antonio were blanketed with up to thirteen and a half inches of snow, more snow than was ever previously received in an entire winter season. (Weather Channel) (Storm Data) 1985: A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south-central Texas. All snowfall records dating back to 1885 were easily broken. Austin measured 3.6 inches, and Del Rio received 8.6 inches. San Antonio saw a record-setting 13.5 inches from this event. 1987 - Twenty-seven cities in the Upper Midwest reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 72 degrees at Valentine NE and 76 degrees at Rapid City SD set records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) 1988 - Parts of North Dakota finally got their first snow of the winter season, and it came with a fury as a blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Fargo ND, winds gusted to 65 mph at Windom MN, and wind chill readings in North Dakota reached 60 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A dozen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. Fort Myers FL reported a record high of 86 degrees. (National Weather Summary) 1990 - Gale force winds produce squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in northwest Pennsylvania ranged up to eleven inches at Conneautville and Meadville. Barnes Corners, in western New York State, was buried under 27 inches of snow in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: The fourth and final in a series of snowstorms to strike the East Coast in only 10 days dumped 30 to 36 inches of snow at Oakland, PA, 26 inches at Franklin, NY, and 25 inches at Montrose, PA. Another 4 to 6 inches fell in the Baltimore-Washington area. The 10.8 inches at Harrisburg, PA raised their monthly snowfall to 38.8 inches, the city's snowiest month ever. After this snowfall, many places had over 40 inches of snow on the ground, including Grafton, NH with 50 inches, Danville, PA with 49 inches, Jaffery, NH with 46 inches, and West Granville, MA with 43 inches. Oddly enough, this deep snow cover would be completely eradicated in most areas over the next two weeks from warm temperatures and heavy rains, setting the stage for major flooding.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Montague, New York: Five-day (10th - 14th) snowfall event dumps record 95 inches, 40 inches of which fell in 12 hours from Saturday night through Sunday morning (11th - 12th). Over the 24-hour period, the Lewis County site recorded 77 inches, a new US national record. (Ref. Wx.Doctor)

Yes, I'm not disputing CC....believe me...just kind of ironic, in a sardonic kind of way (for us).

dude dont be a baby LOL..... Id rather it be on a weekend so I don't have issues getting to work! We have gotten our snows as far this winter. We will get more opportunities its only 1/12

I haven't viewed one of that bafoon's videos in over a year....I realized quickly what he was. The WORST out there, and there are some bad ones.

All of our classic winters go like this lol. The lack of snow in the nw zones is actually getting kinda weird. I haven't even been able to snow hike in the Catoctins. The top of the Catoctins has done worse then my area for many years now.

lol so what? AI is the shit. Its everywhere for everything.

AI

Be nice to have some blocking to help right now

This could be huge, all

The Euro had the same general idea, just didn't quite get it done with the phasing

34 / 20 as we progress warm the next 3 days as ridge builds west trough generally into the east by Thu/Fri and looking overall below normal from then on with some strong cold into the northern Plains/MW and east potentially by the 23rd. Looking overall drier on the guidance but trough could yield a period or two of some light/mod snow. 1/12 - 1/15: Above normal 1/16 - 1/21 : Below normal / dry as of now 1/23 - Beyond: Looks overall cold and potentially some stronger cold (nearby could reach the area)

lol storm cancel

I figure you're kidding around but ..still, it doesn't incite much mystery ( it's useful to point this out to the pedestrian -) The flow is just biased in favor of some regions and not in others. That's typical 3 million years ago, today.. and tomorrow. But, we are a whopper exception to the rule according to some sourcing. Here's December according to the ERS tracking. I'm curious about Novie but ... just arm chair recall, I suspect it'd be 75% likeness or more. The early season blocking/front loading aspect serviced these cold regions and it really quite obviously got going two months ago. Bringing that back to the dry continental aspect, one of other NW flow pattern results - below being the temperatures.

The 6z Euro has a clean, amped ridge out west and clippers digging for gold. I have not seen this pattern since Jan/Feb 2015.

The old philosophical conundrum: If a thread is started in the middle of the night and nobody is aware of it, did it exist??