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Nice little shower event!!!!

Yeah, a pure 82-83 or 97-98 type Nino wouldn't be bad if it happened like 6 times out of 10. you might still get above average temps, but line up a -NAO with the STJ... I contend that +NAO isn't a constant with east-based Nino's like history suggests, It's more random than it appears in limited analogs.

Absolutely. This is what I have been getting at with the RONI focus.

May 17 1915: Old man winter's last hurrah dumps 5 inches of snow along the western shore of Lake Superior. For Sunday, May 17, 2026 1883 - A three day flood in the Black Hills of western South Dakota resulted in a million dollars damage at Rapid City. (David Ludlum) 1979 - A reading of 12 degrees at Mauna Kea Observatory established an all-time record low for the state of Hawaii. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - A golfer playing the Fox Meadows Course in Memphis TN was struck by a bolt of lightning that went through his neck, down his spine, came out a pocket containing his keys, and went into a nearby tree. Miraculously, he survived! (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A summer-like weather pattern continued, with warm temperatures and scattered thunderstorms across much of the nation. A cold front in the north central U.S. produced a sharp contrast in the weather across the state of Minnesota during the afternoon. At the same time Duluth was 50 degrees with rain and fog, Mankato was 95 degrees with sunny skies. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds over the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. A "thunderstorm of a lifetime" in northern Spartanburg County, SC, produced hail for forty-five minutes, leaving some places knee-deep in hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms ravaged the south central U.S. with severe weather for the third day in a row. Thunderstorms spawned another nineteen tornadoes, for a total of fifty tornadoes in three days. A strong (F-2) tornado injured 14 persons and caused two million dollars damage at Apple Springs TX. Baseball size hail was reported at Matador TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in New York State during the late morning and afternoon. A tornado injured one person at Warren, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Owego. Evening thunderstorms over southwest Texas produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Marfa, along with golf ball size hail which accumulated to a depth of ten inches. Late night thunderstorms over southwest Texas produced up to seven inches of rain in western Crockett County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

These next 3-4 days will be nice but forecast for the holiday weekend is low 60’s/50’s with clouds and rain Fri straight through Monday. That’ll def spoil a lot of plans if it plays out like that

30% containment on the fire. Winds are switching to the NE off the Lake. Any flare ups could send sparks over the fire lines. But looks like plenty of rain tonight thru Tues a.m., so that should squash this thing.

lol… gonna be a real nice day here in S Town! Thanks for the shout Brian W.

So tough for the higher spots out here in Chesco to touch 90....but it will be close. Valley spots will certainly get above 90

This is the start of a very warm pattern for CONUS, to finish out May. I wonder if we're going to start doing what we were doing a few years ago where when the actual day is mild or ridgy, the long range models adjust for the same pattern in the extended. 80F here at 10am

Not misleading at all simply presenting the actual climate data for the county. You are just as always attempting to explain away the facts but those facts cannot be changed! The above list of when records occurred is actual and real climate data you cannot somehow recast or redo the above data because it fails to fit a narrative.

Top 10er of a day today. Warm. Low humidity. it looks like we picked up a stray shower overnight as well. Won’t complain about that. over 3.5” for the month.

Didn't quite make it. 0.42" Friday night and 0.00" last night. Another chance at dying convection tomorrow morning.

All of the Ens means and also the AI are advertising at least a moderate amount of rain late week through the weekend. Multiple chances in that window so hopefully the area cashes in on some of it.

I heard Mamdani is removing all AC from cruisers to help fight the deficit

It's starting to sprinkle. Given that yesterday's predicted rain hit a wall in western Fauquier County and vanished, I didn't expect unforecasted showers to get this far east. I wonder if this wil bust the high temps forecast for today.

Whhheeeeeeeeee

Low of 61. Now cometh the heat.

hoping someone hits 100!

Looks muted.

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1974) NYC: 92 (1974) LGA: 94 (2017) JFK: 89 (1974) Lows: EWR: 39 (1956) NYC: 39 (1956) LGA: 38 (1983) JFK: 42 (1983) Historical: 1794: An "uncommon frost" in all of New England destroyed crops. The account was published in the collections of the Massachusetts Historical Society. 1825 - A tornado (said to have crossed all of the state of Ohio) smashed into the log cabin settlement of Burlington, northeast of Columbus. (David Ludlum) 1883: A three-day flood in the Black Hills of western South Dakota resulted in a million dollars damage at Rapid City. (Ref. David Ludlum) 1896: An estimated F5 tornado tracked 100 miles through northeastern Kansas and extreme southeastern Nebraska. Seneca, Oneida, Sabetha, and Reserve, Kansas sustained severe damage. While passing through Reserve, the tornado was 2 miles wide. 25 people were killed, and 200 were injured. The cost was estimated at $400,000. 1960 - Salt Lake City UT received an inch of snow. It marked their latest measurable snowfall of record. (The Weather Channel) 1979: A reading of 12 degrees at Mauna Kea Observatory established a record low for the state of Hawaii. 1980 - Mount Saint Helens (in Washington State) erupted spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Kansas, developing along a cold front, spawned tornadoes at Emporia and Toledo, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Scott, and produced golf ball size hail in the Kansas City area. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Pomona NJ reported a record high of 93 degrees, and Altus, OK, hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure anchored over eastern Virginia kept showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Flash flooding was reported in Pennsylvania. Up to five inches of rain drenched Franklin County PA in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf Coast States to the Lower Missouri Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, and there were 74 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. spawning a sixteen tornadoes, including a dozen in Nebraska. Thunderstorms also produced hail four inches in diameter at Perryton TX, wind gusts to 84 mph at Ellis KS, and high winds which caused nearly two million dollars damage at Sutherland NE. Thunderstorms deluged Sioux City IA with up to eight inches of rain, resulting in a record flood crest on Perry Creek and at least 4.5 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: The severe weather that began the previous day persisted into this day producing flash flooding over the western and central parts of Oklahoma. Rainfall accumulations of nearly 9 inches flooded many low lying areas and houses in the Weatherford area. In Kingfisher, flood waters covered 64 square blocks of town, and forced the evacuation of 600 people. The National Guard was called in to help in the evacuation as the flood waters reached 6 to 8 feet deep in a few places. The floods washed out 11 major bridges in Lincoln County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Today’s 2 inch snowfall was the last measurable total for the 1996-97 snow season in Herman, MI. The total for the season: 384.0 inches, a new MI record. The previous record was set during the 1995-96 season: 347.0 inches (also in Herman). Herman averages 239.7 inches per season. 1998: Hail the size of tennis balls pelted Dryden and Fort Francis, Ontario Canada in a 5-minute blitz. Damage to auto glass and house roofs were extensive (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

75 / 60 mostly sunny. Mid 80s to the seasons 1st,2nd or in some cases 3rd 90 today. Fall back a bit Monday but some push 90 inland. Peak heat Tue / Wed - wed need to watch timing with the front but mid to perhaps upper 90s in the hottest spots. GFS / Euro split with next weekend / memorial day with trough cutting off between Fri - Sun and onshore flow vs more tame normal- ish on the euro. Ridge pushing back east by the follwing week.

Follows the WPC from yesterday. Today's forecast from them is even less rainfall, things look rather bleak

Hard to believe 3 years ago tonight was the big freeze that wiped out most of the fruit crop at orchards up here…low 20s in the valleys around CON/Loudon.