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Garner town has a very slight tingle in the bushes right now

It definitely has. I'm just starting what was the results of analyzing model performance in Arkansas up to 6pm today. I'll be able to start looking at states to East soon. All the models there had about the same mean absolute error of 1.8". It's was the nam though with a root mean square deviation of almost twice that, while others were close, along with a massive dry bias, and horrible snowfall distribution correlation that stood out. Below is a metaphor Thinking about these weather models is a bit like judging a free-throw shooting contest between five different players. Even if they all missed by the same average distance, the way they missed tells the real story. Imagine each model is a basketball player trying to hit a specific spot on the rim: The "Average" Score (MAE) Every player in this contest missed their target by about 1.8 inches on average. If you just looked at that one number, you’d think they were all equally "okay" at their jobs. But once you look at the game tape, one player (the NAM) stands out for all the wrong reasons. The NAM: The "Wild Card" (RMSE & Bias) The NAM was the player who didn't just miss—it missed spectacularly. The Big Misses (RMSE): While the other players missed by 1 or 2 inches consistently, the NAM would hit the backboard or miss the rim entirely on some shots. Because RMSE penalizes big mistakes much more than small ones, the NAM's "penalty score" was twice as high as the others. The "Dry" Excuse (Bias): On top of the wild misses, the NAM had a massive dry bias. In our metaphor, this player was consistently shooting way too short. If the hoop was at 10 feet, the NAM was aimlessly throwing the ball at 8 feet. The "Broken Rhythm" (Correlation) Finally, there’s the snowfall distribution correlation. In plain English, this is rhythm. A good player might miss, but if the target moves left, they move left too. The NAM had horrible correlation. It was essentially playing a different game. When the actual storm "moved left," the NAM "moved right." It didn't just get the amounts wrong; it got the entire pattern of where the snow would fall completely backward. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVANEWPO63 You'll notice another station about 2 miles from this one with very similar readings. Now down to 3F on mountain lake

It’s still going to start after midnight .

That's what I was thinking. I'm curious to see what the upper air data shows for the 00z model suite!!

Road white.

Unless you’re in the 5% of winter where you have to be 3000 miles away AFTER WAITING 6 YEARS to see 15” of snow. Ya. So.

Is 0z pulling the goddamn rug? Just looked at the icon.

I was warming up but now it's stopped again.

The good news- Dry powdery snow will not allow sleet to pile up on electric lines and trees.

Last call is 8" snow 2" sleet

we would only have to bust -0.5*C cold on upper level temps for that to happen IMO... how hard is that?

Stolen from MA and the LWX office. Interesting: If anything, perhaps some guidance leans slightly slower in terms of a transitioning to sleet Sunday morning. However, not buying into that just yet, and would like to see the 00z guidance roll in with the latest upper air data around the country. Could be something to watch though, as a slower onset of sleet in any one given location could make a significant difference in snow amounts. Will be something to watch this evening into tonight."

Reminder that this was supposed to start after midnight.

00Z RRFS looks better than its 18Z run by the looks of snowfall totals, particularly in the southern 2/3 of NJ.

This is some of the stoutest CAD I’ve ever observed. The source cold is insane.

Excellent! You and @nj2va have several hundred feet on me but it's close for mby. Thanks for the update! DP is 'up' to -5.9 so we're getting there. Ice box cold at 6.4.

Virga pushing north into Fairfax County. We’re close.

.5” with slow rates is nightmare fuel

19/0, cloudy

Hell yess

Icon should be snowier than 18z

Thats my bar. An hour or two extra of all snow during heavy precip before the flip is how we hit our high ends 18/-3

I actually have the vaguest memory of my dad waking me up to see the heavy snow when I was under age 3. But my actual vivid memories start with the incredible month of March 1956.