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Especially if the RNA is closer to the west coast and -2 or less. Would not happen in a +PNA.

I'm sure they will have a top notch cooling system that is going to be cranking (can't even imagine the cost) but I have to think there will be some issues with the ice.

That map is not even close to reality for almost everyone South of I40. Some areas east of Charlotte got a dusting but that's it.

It shows you how a 500 mile difference in feature placement changes everything. The first 2 weeks of December 2010 you can take all those features and shift them 500 miles west and that was basically the pattern. We did not get any big or notable snows though but we were very cold.

The ice should be fine. lol

I told my dad that literally a few hours ago. Its hard to see what can change up the new base state and the subtropical jet is straight up dead.

True! I did not really catch that but indeed!!

Oh yeah I dont think it will get wiped; but I also have seen it go either way. I’ve seen cutters end up with a net gain, I’ve seen them overperform and wipe a healthy pack out. This area is very prone to warming when there’s a wind from the SE, I’m sure it will be close to 59 for a while. How long that happens for and how much rain we get will determine what’s left when the rain stops. How much snow we get on the backside will determine the rest of the equation. Stake is currently at 12” after the compaction

They do, but that warmth has to come from the south due to a southern stream low phasing and strengthening, not from a Pacific garbage airmass coming in from the west.

I believe @bluewave discussed the possibility of that happening (SE ridge hooking up with the -NAO) last week. A -PNA would definitely make that possibility more likely as you said

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

so far i have not seen anything in the models to get me excited about January. -NAO....sure but can that overcome a horrific Pacific? Where is the southern jet?

With this ridge centered over Florida they may be playing the outdoor classic on a pond. It will be a water polo match instead of a hockey match

Interesting that when ever we get above average snow in Dec. we never get shut out the rest of the season.

Definitely took an anomalous pattern to get December cold and snow in the east. Been record breaking warmth in the southwest (where I’m currently at for the next week or two). Usually in the upper 50s in Vegas this time of year, but it’s been close to 70 each day so far since I arrived last week. I think the Rockies are also below normal snowfall so far. I’d like to see a “normal pattern” develop in January…one in which Frederick can get a warning level snowfall from an ol’ TN Valley wave and a blocking high to the north. TBD

Torch moved to boxing day. That i am fine with. Just keep xmas eve and day cooler

Hachoo...

Same here. Always shows McDowell with a trace or 0.1 and I’m sorry, hasn’t happened.

I’d say there’s a strong chance Monday morning will be the lowest temp of the winter season. I may eat my words, but low teens have been hard to come by for years now.

That’s really incredible. Weather and climatology are so fascinating to me, so many variables at any given time producing innumerable outcomes - sometimes resulting in extreme permutations. I was born in the late 80’s so of course wasn’t around for the extremes of that decade. One of my first vivid weather memories however was the blizzard of 96… not a bad one to have. Was in Monmouth county for that as a kid.

I take issue with Eric’s maps. A trace is measurable and I can say definitively that no location south of Yadkin County in the NC foothills has seen a trace this year. He has my area marked at 4 “trace” events. Our best event was a 2 hr period of off and on light snow that melted on contact.

Yes but the big dogs usually bring some warmer temps with more moisture, if they make it this far north with arctic air in place. There's a reason detroit didnt get more than 3 inches in one event in the cold pattern we've been in for 2 weeks+.

Thank you! Yes hopefully the flu shot will help me some if I get it. Having the damaged lungs from Covid. I need to avoid any flu. I know vaccines can be a dirty word for many but I have to take any precautions I can.

Saw that in NYC it was the coldest 15 days of December since 2005.

Looks like we may get some low topped convection early Friday AM with the frontal passage?