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Chris, thanks. A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then. In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q: -let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm -let’s say that the in the early 2020s thst the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe. -That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough isn’t stronger/weaker.

Euro AI and its ensemble have been intriguing, and other guidance has been showing a signal for homebrew. The NHC hasn’t tagged it yet, but the Gulf/SE coast are worth watching in about a week.

It’s on the table. Euro AI has been leading the way but the other ensembles have a signal for something that pops off what’s likely a stalled front in the Gulf. Might get pulled up the coast, or if a trough isn’t there, steered west in the Gulf.

It looks like an unsettled pattern will continue this week into the weekend. For the Mountains, high temperatures should remain mostly in check throughout the period with daily storms. We'll need to monitor the weekend as there appears to be potential for a tropical disturbance attempting to organize along the Northern Gulf or off the West Coast of Florida along the stalled frontal boundary to our South.

No

It's a dangerous time... This is a perfect sort of historic storm unfolding. We've created a civility protected from the problems in the environment, meanwhile ... the relative advantages of that same protection does a couple of things that are big-time negative feedbacks. One ... blinds the same civility from experiencing, thus cannot as readily see nor believing the problem is real - "the until it is too late" trope unfortunately becomes most apropos. Contributing here, I firmly believe that the limitation of a humanity to dimensionalize at such large scales ... is also an offset competition to competency. Two, spoiled it's population (and leaders) into believing that not agreeing with science and empirical fact is an entitlement to do so - very odd. Fake news and the tongue-in-cheek "alternate facts" that began 20 some years ago, isn't just a party trope. It's a fucking major problem. And thus demonstrate no compunctions exercising entitlement whenever science informs their actions are the problem. (One + Two )/ 2 = the mathematics of brickery May also = a nice and tidy Fermi Paradox ... 2023 demonstrated that the Earth lags in GW; the metaphor 'under tension' fits. The rate at which the "Anthropocene" epoch has introduced it's loading into the system (you could argue this epoch began when "Lucy" first picked up a burning stick ... but the vast majority just in the last 3-or-so hundred years) has outpaced the system's ability to respond. After all, we are talking a whole planet. But that tension has been growing more and more taut. As soon as background competing offsets falter just a little bit? Booinnnng. That .5C sudden globular scaled temperature responses taking place all at once ( in the spring that year) was an planet restoring; unilaterally, all systems of ocean, air and quasi coupled ocean-air systems. Here's a thought ... when you consider the human experience, the event of a bomb going off is almost instant. If you think of the planet as experiencing along geologic time spans, the 2023 was just as instantaneous. That becomes an analog for a bomb going off. Whole planets rising a half degree C something never before observed - the lack of recognition as a phenomenon is ... again, I believe the scale is too big to comprehend by too many

After the dry slot in a near-perfect setup for snow I know better than to look into long term outlooks for winter lol. This is a region where it is always easy to fumble at the goal line.

We need this so bad.. I would love to.see peoples reactions around here.. I lost power for 10 days in 2011 and didn't bother me really.. that storm was beyond awesome.. once we started as snow and saw branches starting to sag.. i knew it was going to be something great.. almost constant shotgun blast living near the woods and seeing trees fall all over was awesome.. even had a tree on a power line catch fire.. i ended up calling it in and they said there was nothing they could do about it since they had so many calls. The neighborhood looked like a bomb went off the next morning.. Just a great experience overall and can't wait for another one..

This is good advice. I started doing DBT as a patient fairly recently and it helps a lot. Having poor emotional regulation really sucks, it got me banned from countless online forums (multiple weather forums, sports forums, reddit, etc). Once I stopped blaming everyone else and realized the common denominator was me it clicked. I got help, since doing that I’ve started letting things go more. It’s still a work in progress but I haven’t challenged anyone to a duel in a while so that’s good.

It's a gusty flow too. Going to remain well mixed, especially with the front approaching

Some folks may get a minimum heat wave. I might score another low 90s day... maybe 2. Good for the pool though

Does it hold together for SNE? Back door Derecho for DIT?

Tomorrow night is interesting as far as temperatures go. We are warming aloft. With the flow southwest to west, places like BOS and BDL probably won’t drop all that much.

Impressive as model. All around. Gonna be some nasty stuff from Northern Vermont to Maine.

Several upper 50s for lows on the mesonet

Missed me again. Only .12. It looks like South and North did well. To show you how unlucky I have been as far as big rain totals, here is a Cocoras report from North of Candler. 7/13/2026 8:40 AM NC-BC-91 Candler 1.3 N 1.90 Well, you have to scroll to see it, but it is 1.9 inches. 1.9 inches compared to .12. I am happy that we have had at least some rain every day. How we keep missing storm after storm is amazing... Just by miles or even less. Oh well, they say slow but steady wins the race, lol.

one of the only miss north heatwaves i can remember

@40/70 Benchmark My apologies for yesterday. My response was uncalled for

Suppose to be the hottest of the heatwave today. Lets see if anyone hits 100. As noted below, the Lake cooled some with SW winds yesterday, so that might keep things in check here in town. Winds are to be breezy out of the SW again. .UPDATE... Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 We remain trapped under the influence of a stout upper level high pressure today. With 2AM temperatures still in the 70s across the Northland (outside of some areas right along Lake Superior on the North Shore), today will provide little to no relief from the ongoing heat wave. Guidance continues to point towards today being the hottest day of the heat event. High temperatures could touch or even exceed 100F for the Borderlands in Koochiching, northern St. Louis, and inland Lake/Cook Counties while high temperatures in the 90s are expected across the rest of the Northland. An Extreme Heat Warning continues through the day for the entire area except Price County. The Extreme Heat Warning for areas along and south of Hwy 2 in MN and everywhere in NW WI except Price County has been extended through Tuesday evening due to another very warm night and afternoon expected in those areas. Once the warning expires for the areas north of Hwy 2 in MN, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed at least through Tuesday evening there. In Price County, the Heat Advisory has been extended to run through at least Tuesday evening. A Heat Advisory may be needed along our southern tier of counties for Wednesday. One small note of uncertainty: there has been significant upwelling of cold water in Lake Superior from Duluth to Two Harbors due to the southwest winds over the last 24 hours. This could affect temperatures today very close to the lake, similar to the extremely tight temperature gradient we have seen further up the North Shore. For now, have opted to stay on the hotter side for much of the forecast.

I'll admit that's the first time I've read 'siting' in a met wx station context. That will be something for you if the century mark is reached. Are you rooting for it?

July 13 1933: An intense heat wave affects Grand Marais with a high of 90, extremely rare for that location. Most of Minnesota would exceed 100 degrees on this date. 1890: A tornado hits Lake Gervais north of St. Paul. People rush from St. Paul to help victims and look for souvenirs. One reporter notes that 'nearly everyone who returned from the disaster last evening came laden with momentoes (sic) denoting the cyclone's fury.' For Monday, July 13, 2026 1895 - A tornado struck Cherry Hill in New Jersey causing fifty thousand dollars damage. It also descended into the Harlem and Woodhaven areas of New York City killing one person, and finally ended as a waterspout in Jamaica Bay. (David Ludlum) 1975 - Dover, DE, was deluged with 8.50 inches of rain to establish a 24 hour record for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - Lightning struck a key electrical transmission line in Westchester County of southeastern New York State plunging New York City into darkness. (David Ludlum) 1980 - Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Memphis, TN, 108 degrees at Macon, GA, and 105 degrees at Atlanta, GA, established all-time records for those three cities. The high of 110 degrees at Newington, GA, was just two degrees shy of the state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the Midwest. Ten cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Casper, WY, with a reading of 39 degrees. By way of contrast, record heat was reported in the eastern U.S., with highs of 93 degrees at Burlington, VT, and 101 degrees around Miami, FL. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - There were just three reports of severe weather across the country, and just one record high temperature reported. Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to the Tennessee Valley area, producing nine inches at Senatobia, MS. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A thunderstorm at Albany, GA, produced 1.40 inches of rain in forty minutes, along with wind gusts to 82 mph. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Corpus Christi, TX, 110 degrees at Tucson, AZ, and 114 degrees at Phoenix, AZ, equalled records for the date. Greenwood, MS, reported 55.65 inches of precipitation for the year, twice the amount normally received by mid July. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 13 Mon National French Fry Day 13 Mon International Town Criers Day 13 Mon Beef Tallow Day 13 Mon Embrace Your Geekness Day 13 Mon Fool's Paradise Day 13 Mon National Delaware Day 13 Mon National No Splinters Day 13 Mon National Paul Day 13 Mon National Rock Day 13 Mon Gruntled Workers Day 13 Mon National Beans 'n' Franks Day 13 Mon National Barbershop Music Appreciation Day

I think the El Nino pattern is finally starting to take shape.

We picked up 0.09” additional which brings event total here to 0.97” and MTD 5.69”