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I was wondering where you were. I haven't seen anything from you in a while.

Keep an eye on the winds this afternoon - CTP has gusts close to 30, MU says winds are going to reach 40 at times. Something to watch during a quiet weather period.

good for folks who are traveling for the holiday and long weekend

There is absolutely no reason to be an ass.

1949-51 la nina -> 1951-52 moderate el nino (yes, also continued in 1952-54) 1954-57 la nina -> 1957-58 strong el nino (yes, also continued in 1958-59) 1970-72 la nina -> 1972-73 super el nino (yes) 1974-76 la nina -> 1976-77 & 1977-78 moderate el nino (yes) 1983-85 la nina -> 1986-88 strong el nino (yes) 1988-90 la nina -> 1991-92 strong el nino (yes) 1998-2001 la nina -> 2002-03 moderate el nino (yes) 2007-09 la nina -> 2009-10 strong el nino (yes) 2010-12 la nina - no el nino in 2012-13 or 2013-14 (though we did get a super el nino in 2015-16) 2016-18 la nina -> 2018-19 weak el nino (no) 2020-23 la nina -> 2023-24 strong el nino (yes) So, within 2 years of a multi-year cold ENSO (at least one year la nina), we have: 1 no el nino (and this one eventually produced a strong el nino) 1 weak el nino 3 moderate el nino 5 strong el nino 1 super el nino Plus, 4 of these events were multi-year el ninos (1951-54, 1957-59, 1976-78, and 1986-88).

Probably for some of the same reasons other multi- year snow droughts have occurred in NYC - shouldn't be surprised... monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Today’s 2 week GEFS and EPS MJO progs are in very good agreement on the MJO being hung up near the 6/7 border with moderate intensity: GEFS: EPS: Here’s yesterday’s (11/12/25) extended EPS (these always come out at this site a day later): after the near 2 week long stall near the 6/7 border, it crawls through 7 and then barely into 8 with a trajectory that suggests it might collapse into within the circle/weak amplitude soon afterward. But keep in mind that should it actually occur, a weak amplitude doesn’t at all necessarily mean mild in the E US as weaker MJO on the left side is often associated with cold based on analyses I’ve done and posted here plus charts I’ve seen from others: just outside the circle phase 8 in Dec like this shows has sometimes been associated with quite cold in the E US:

Love this, What a great winter scene, Off to a good start this year where it suppose to be at this time.

6” of heavy pasty snow at the office. 9” at the upper plot.

Bizarre. Lake effect band just came through with a burst of snow and thunder! WTF

Care to explain the reasoning why the pattern post 2019 has been to utterly hostile to cold and snow in the northeast specifically ? Other regions aren't experiencing this.

My 4 weeks post was simply looking at the previous years with early warming events, looking at the following weeks & in those few years this has occurred, it appeared to be around 4 weeks the troposphere was clearly being affected by the event, which I found interesting. Great post Don & much needed...as usual!

BWI: 21.2 DCA: 13.8 IAD: 24.7 RIC: 7.5 SBY: 11.1

Yeah my professor was highlighting the off-the-scale wind anomaly within the last few days. He does think that the MJO will wrap back around before reaching 8 and usher in a more central US trough for the latter part of December. Fairly confident that the beginning will be cold though.

Yeah, by no means am I suggesting it will happen, it was one of those things that I was envisioning that maybe we can sneak in with the block helping him provide some cold air, especially for the interior.

What's the elevation at your house?

There can be immediate affects on the troposphere if the SPV & troposphere are strongly coupled which does not appear to be the case at the moment. If it gets immediately cold in early DEC it is not from the affects of the SSWE. And obviously there are no guarantees of how the SSWE later shakes out in the troposphere, we can only use analogs to guess.

Yeah maybe. It's a tweener system. It's in between teleconnectors, wedged in that timing between more major or obvious signals. If it is even real, confidence will come down to handling the daily noise. I mean, when it is resulting/connected to larger mass field change, confidence in actually having 'something' on the charts can be assessed at longer leads... But that thing's pretty invisible to the indices. Tweeners are real though. They can sting. "Little critters that bite" are tweeners. Or like the 1997 Dec 23 snow bomb storm was a tweener. I saw 16" from that one.

says the troll who hasn't gotten it for the last few years.

BWI: 18 DCA: 8 IAD: 22 RIC: 15 SBY: 10

The ice age hype is coming from the usual hysteria crowd. The headline today is Gulf Stream will shut down, leading to oceans rising and an ice age. Yeah, figure that one out. It is all about clicks and if you are a scientist looking for pal review, funding, which now is the same as clicks.

This is going to trigger DIT.

Next time Peter Geiger stops in, I'll have to ask him why they chose to no longer publish the Farmers Almanac.

"We are pleased to share the Maryland Climate Bulletin for October 2025, which includes sea surface temperatures for the Chesapeake Bay and the state's coastal waters. However, due to the federal government shutdown, the availability of our primary data source for the Bulletin has been affected, and consequently, the extent of the Bulletin has been impacted. The regular production of the Bulletin is only possible thanks to the hard work and data provided by our friends at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, the CoastWatch East Coast Node, the Institutions involved in the U.S. Drought Monitor, and the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Watch. You can access the Bulletin from the following link: https://mdsco.umd.edu/Bulletin/bulletin_mdsco_current.pdf Points to highlight are: 1) Statewide averages indicate that October 2025 was slightly colder and drier than normal (i.e., 1991-2020 averages). 2) Regionally, the mean temperature was warmer than normal in some areas of the state, particularly over counties in the central Piedmont and the Eastern Shore. Colder-than-normal conditions appeared over parts of Garrett, Prince George's, and Charles counties. 3) Precipitation was below normal for most of the state, especially over portions of Saint Mary's, Charles, Calvert, Somerset, Dorchester, and Talbot counties, which received around 50% less precipitation than normal for the month. Above-normal precipitation was observed only over western Washington County, which received approximately 25% more precipitation than normal. The rest of the state, with below-normal precipitation, received around 25% less precipitation than normal. 4) Drought conditions deteriorated in October. The extent of the state affected by drought increased from 50% to 90%, with a rise in the areas having Abnormally Dry and Moderate Drought conditions. Moderate Drought conditions affected Garrett, Allegany, Washington, Frederick, and Montgomery counties, as well as western Carroll, Howard, Prince George's, Charles, and northeastern Cecil counties. The Severe Drought conditions in Garrett and Washington counties, and the Extreme Drought conditions in Garrett County that appeared in September, persisted into this month. Abnormally Dry conditions covered the rest of the counties in the Piedmont, and most of the counties on the Eastern Shore; Worcester and Queen Anne's counties, as well as parts of Wicomico and Kent counties, remained drought-free. The number of streams and rivers experiencing Below-normal and Much-below-normal streamflow increased this month. 5) The Chesapeake Bay sea surface temperatures (SST) in October 2025 were in the 63−70°F range. Regionally, they were below their 2007–2020 mean across much of the Bay, except in the waters north of Baltimore, extending into the Upper Bay, where warm anomalies exceeded 4°F. The coldest anomalies were found in the southeastern Lower Bay, in the Tangier Sound waters off Somerset, Wicomico, and Dorchester counties, as well as in the Chincoteague Bay (3–4°F below). The all-basin mean temperature of 66.3°F was still warmer than the coldest October in the 19-year dataset (2007-2025), which recorded a temperature of 62.2°F in 2002. Please refer to the Bulletin for more details. The Maryland Climate Bulletin is issued monthly and presents the state's recent surface temperature and precipitation conditions in a clear and concise format, enabling Marylanders to better understand regional climate variations. Please help disseminate this Bulletin. Thanks, Alfredo -- ............................................. Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, PhD Associate Research Professor Maryland State Climatologist"

Just need to see the same model output in the 2-4 day range