All Activity

4 inches a good bet for Ardmore. I’ll be walking home in it #nightcrew. We take.

Watching from afar. Looks almost like a squall like scenario. Definitely would feel better in northeast md for this one, but looks like an advisory event incoming at least. Once I get this sunny and 70 weather (completely opposite weather pattern in Vegas) out of my system I’ll be ready for a snowstorm lol. Good luck to the Frederick crew…would be happy to see that area get on the board with something other than a cartopper. 3 hrs behind here so I’ll prob peep the radar later.

large section of -25F temps in Saskatchewan, also large section of -15F in Minnesota

Midday video update if anyone's interested lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F45qrarkeBY

Getting flurries

INL would absolutely be great. Even during winter 2011-12, which was horrendous for nearly all of us, INL still had continuous snow cover for 3.5 months. Think about that. The most pathetic winter in our parts still ended up with more days with snow cover than Chicago’s best winter on record (1978-79). That drives me crazy, the huge winter gradient over a relatively short distance. So close, yet so far. I feel even worse for winter lovers in STL or southern IL, where they essentially have no winter…and it’s not really that far away from here. The big issue for me is the volatility. The down periods of winter are so bad, that they overwhelm any good periods. No matter how good it has been from late November through December 10 (which then got dropped down several notches due to the ridiculous snow melt event from a few days ago), there looks to be very little snow over the next 3 weeks. What should happen is, even in the down periods, there’s at least 3” of snow every 7-10 days. It’s horrible to go 2-3 weeks without any snow cover and cold. To sum everything up - we supposedly had a great winter period, but then ORD ends up with no snow cover at the end of the supposed good period. How does that happen? The bad period hasn’t even started yet!

Just my opinion, but if there's going to be doom and screw job posts, can we put them in the panic room?

Don’t have a ton of time (ever anymore it seems), but I agree with Jax………. We really need the Rex like block over the Aleutians to be less “rexy”. Will be like pulling teeth to keep the bulk of cold from going west with that look.

Im halfway home! Looking forward to the snow

Feel like somewhere like lakeville or carver would be the best spot to pull a surprise 6. Might be the sweet spot or ratios and dynamics there

I like @Terpeastforecast a lot better at least he makes an actual forecast. This is just “I’m gonna make a map that could cover any possible outcome.”

40 and partly cloudy currently in Wolf. The ski resort is packed. Looks like a quick shot of snow tonight, and that we'll be near zero Sunday night. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

At a minimum, maybe what this means is as we cook Christmas dinner and the oven is on, we won't have to run the A/C like I've had to do more than once in Richmond.

It'll be interesting to see if that applies again but generally that has seemed to work out well. The higher end 4-5" totals will need to verify though

Calculated some Cobb snow estimates from the 12z gfs and nam (respectively) CON 0.0/0.1 PWM 0.1/0.4 BOS 0.9/1.1 ORH 0.7/0.5 PSF 1.9/0.7 EWB 3.5/3.7 HYA 0.8/3.7 BDL 0.7/0.3 HFD 3.2/1.0 HVN 1.3/2.5 GON 1.3/3.4 PVD 2.1/2.9

Chance of rain in the forecast for Thursday (although followed by snow on Friday). Still a good reminder to enjoy what we get when we get it.

Euro reflects my thinking on where the best banding may set up just NW of 95 rather than right along it or SE (except extreme NE MD through DE and S NJ.

Best snow of the year so far. Awesome banding, dry fluffy snow, and big fat flakes in these heavier bands. Easily seen 1in+ hr rates at times. A true snow globe outside. Sad it's going to torch this week and melt it all.

Hello beautiful

It doesn't appear to be as warm as first thought either... 39F/Cloudy

was checking area temps ahead of this system and.. whose station is this??

Light snow flying around out there

The initial band looks to target center of AGC and south,

36 so far most cloudy a little bit of sun

Might as well throw some accums out since this event is pretty close to starting in western PA. This is going to be a pretty big event in the western mountains. The western ridgelines of the Laurels may near double digits just from the event itself with the upslope flow and cold column (high ratios). Still going to be that corridor of reduced accums in the Ridge and Valley, although this has looked somewhat better as this has gotten into the realm of the near term guidance. I think most everyone will see at least an inch. That narrow corridor between the Allegheny front and I-99 may manage low end advisory amounts. Along with the somewhat better carry-over where the downsloping occurs, near term has also looked better in the Sus Valley for the precip shield reorganizing as the system gets to the coast and the column/surface cools further. Ratios won’t be as high as the Laurels, but it’ll still be pretty decent (perhaps as good as 14-15:1). The best precip coincides roughly with the -8ºC 850mb isotherm as it tracks across PA. It wouldn’t take much more QPF to make for a low end warning event in the Sus Valley. Western PA Pittsburgh metro and surrounding: 4-6” Washington: 5-7” Butler/Indiana: 3-5” Seven Springs: 6-10” (+ additional with LES and upslope after) Central PA Johnstown/Somerset: 4-7” (+ additional with LES and upslope after) Clearfield: 2-4” Altoona: 2-3” Bedford/State College: 1-2” Huntingdon/Lewistown/Williamsport: An inch or so Sus Valley Selinsgrove: 1-2” Gettysburg: 2-3” Harrisburg area/Tamaqua: 2-4” York/Lancaster: 2-4” (possibility of some 5”+ amounts)