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PNA seems to be rising towards the end of the run as well, perhaps in response to the MJO wave. AO is variable.

Don’t worry , it won’t play out that way. Lots of time for changes both good and bad.

True, but it’s for the love of the game. I embrace my limitations as long as the kiddos are maxing on fun.

Tight rope is a good term for this. Very much so. Or the proverbial thread the needle.

Don’t remind me, we choked that one away bleeding the mid levels the last 24 hours.

I'm still waiting on my 15" the euro game me 24 hours before the last storm.

It's funny reading the different comments from yesterday to today. Yesterday several of you were so excited and on bored with a wintry and snowy middle to end of next week. Today the same people are frustrated and talking about how it's going to be warmer and not wintry and this is the pattern we're in. Same people, same comments, same reactions. Haven't we learn by now to just wait until we get a few days out to know exactly what's going to happen? I'm on neither camp as far as it being wintry and snowy or warmer and rainy. Not until we get to midweek. Then I think I can jump in on which direction it's going.

Absolutely! And that's why I am hopeful if not a bit skeptical. We can pull this off for sure. We just need a little more than we have needed for a while.

Should be innphase 8 by the 2nd week of March hopefully for one last good snow stretch.

Using the indices... March begins in balm. Whether that's merely relative to climatology, or actually feels that way between the front door and destination, notwithstanding. But that -WPO is retrograding in the materialized spatial ens cinemas, at the same time there's a -PNA/+EPO/Neutral NAO; a wholesale mass field scaffolding that doesn't leave a whole helluva lot of other alternative impressions. Particularly when the +EPO has -2 SD cold over Alaska. Cold AK typically results in warm departures over the GL-NE/SE Can. We'll see... Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out. I'm ready. I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers? I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports. In the interest of fairness... whatever happens this week can still get winter antics done for winter enthusiasts. The end of the week still looks like a mixy/ice potential... But it's low confidence by virtue of the fact that the moderately (still/residual) higher speed of the flow foot is flattish through then, which is very typically not a good deterministic regime for modeling.

Should be in phase 8 by the second week of March. Could go out with one last good period.

Euro to put this to bed in t minus 30 minutes.

It was nice to see the return of snowy clippers and a benchmark 10”+ snowstorm. But Central PA is still waiting for the return of the big Miller A tracks east of the APPS. They have only reached average once in the last decade. State College hasn’t been in the top 20 for snowiest seasons for more than 20 years. It has to be very rough for JB since that area has turned into one of the worst snow holes in the East.

Wish it were a bit colder and SW for CT.

D10 GFS ...this is the truer spring thrust - first of the year.

we are honestly going to see some of these piles of snow until April unless we get a stretch of 80s in March or something.

This SHOULD get us back to phase 8 by the 2nd week of March. Perhaps we get one last good window.

Agreed, if we get moderate rates, we will snow tomorrow evening. The track is ideal to work with a marginal air mass at this time of year. There is not a primary low tracking toward northern WV this time.

yeah pretty much the same here.

I don’t disagree, but the current solution as modeled is better than the precip missing us to the south by 300 miles. At least we have a shot with the precip now.

Yeah it will take some rates for sure but that's what some of the meso's are showing down our way. You are right though, what's being depicted as snowfall on these maps will surely not amount to that much on the ground with the marginal temps in place. Heck, I was scouring through skew-T's earlier and we really would be walking the tight rope through the lower part of the column, with a wet snow and a surface right around freezing. Could be fun though.

I was 50-50 this morning at 7 am, likely my last 'measurement' of SOTG (reported 1.0"). About 2-2.5" in shaded/north facing spots. Likely a 'T' for under 50% tomorrow. No complaints, been a nice 3 week period.

lack of moisture has been a problem all year. i see nothing to break that trend. piddly events that dry out or stay south ain't gonna do.

Ukmet says enjoy your few sprinkles. The difference between these models 24hrs out is pathetic