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  2. high risk
    It's a fair question, especially given that there is more shear in that profile than I was expecting to see. The warm layer you mentioned might indeed have been a factor. I'd also note that the surface dew point doesn't seem to be representative of the moisture in the low levels, so a mixed layer parcel, while still having some CAPE, would not be able to generate as strong of an updraft.
  3. KeenerWx
    Looking north at roughly the time of this radar scan. It’s from a video I took on my phone lol. Quick “chase” today as I just had to hop to an area of fields just north of my house
  4. Avdave
    Got to 103* on my PWS here in our new location 4 miles North of RDU. Drought monitor isn't pretty for the I 85/40 corridor in the piedmont though
  5. high risk
    None of these CAMs are AI-based. This event, like Saturday's, was mostly a burst of wind followed by a mostly narrow band of reflectivity. I'm guessing that this type of event is tough for a 3 km model to properly resolve.
  6. CT Valley Snowman
    Another complex of storms to the SW. The rich get richer.
  7. Ji started following Capital Weather independent of the Post
  8. Ji
    Are you allowed to write about globar warning again?
  9. Jackstraw
    There was a CC drop right over Calumet City a few min ago on that tor warned storm
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    93 today.
  11. Upstate Tiger
    So we have officially entered El Niño phase. Most agree it will be strong and possibly super El Niño. The strongest El Niño on record was the super El Niño of 1877/1878. It actually started in late 1876 and was fully established in spring 1877. The winter of 1877/1878 was known as the year without winter, especially in the Midwest and eastern US. Farmers actually planted in February. This El Niño is starting a little later and no two are the same but at this point, an above average temp winter would be a good bet.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    From my 3000 course Atmosphere and Weather the only thing that fully stands out is the slight rightward nudge between 500mb and 300mb. Seems odd that’d prevent a mature thunderhead considering the abundant cape still present. Maybe the other piece is the hodograph which only has unidirectional shear up to sounding point 2? Will page some of our smarter friends to help out @high risk @CAPE @MillvilleWx
  13. CT Valley Snowman
    Friends of mine moved from Palmer, MA to Canton, IL about 30 miles SW of Peoria last year. They've been learning the whole Midwest severe thing firsthand. i was updating them today as sirens were going off.
  14. NEG NAO
    Another "Pop Up" storm is developing in between 287 and 78 north of Westfield alot of cloud to cloud lightning SVR from KOKX
  15. George BM
    Sounding is in. Experts?
  16. NEG NAO
    it even got its own little warning SVR from KPHI
  17. nvck
    2 tors likely otg SW of grand rapids
  18. vortex95
    Indeedsnow SEZ otherwise! Just ignore the NW flow supercell in CT today. How about that 5.47" in Albany NH ydy?
  19. Torchageddon
    Many members of this subforum under tornado warnings currently.
  20. steve392
    The lightning show that is being put on right now to my wsw of Kearny is amazing. Just non stop flashes lighting up a towering storm cloud. Has to be the single cell outwest not the main system
  21. Birds~69
    A little something to the W. Whatever happens it won't last long...
  22. SnowenOutThere
    The lack of lightning does indicate how these storms were relatively low topped. Just seems odd as forecasted soundings showed a high enough EL point and we had big CAPE throughout the layer. I’m sure something caused it though.
  23. mob1
    Southern and SW neighborhoods of Chicago getting hit pretty good.
  24. ForestHillWx
    Small cell out in this part of south west Morris County doing work… heavy rain, constant lightening and rolling thunder.
  25. Typhoon Tip
    Epicosity between Northern Illinois and Southern Michigan One contiguous line of tornado and or severe thunderstorm warnings from Grand Rapids Michigan to Springfield, Illinois, actually all the way down to Texas
  26. Picard
    Lightening strikes are way down in the past few radar loops as is precip intensity. I have lightening off to my north from that cell over pike/northern sussex county, but other than that, the main show is over.
  27. mob1
    Absolutely insane velocity scans on that cell.
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