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February 1996 the last week of the month hovered in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the better part of a week, averaging 56.5 degree highs. 6 weeks later we had a 4-12 inch snowstorm, and plenty of excitement in between. There's too much variability around here to take much to the bank more than two weeks out, ever.

Is +TNH the same thing as +PNA?

Temps

Hey, No Fangs or push back here …couldn’t agree more. I’ll call a turf and turd when I think it. At 12.5” on the season to date, average is about 50” here(give or take a couple in either direction), as of now normal snowfall is easily attainable with the large amount of time/vast majority of the season still left(and peak snow climo still in front of us). But if we go into the end of January, and I’m not above where I am now by a good 12-15” inches, normal season snowfall is toast. Agreed.

lol, this looks more like an el nino or a +PDO than a typical -ENSO/-PDO.

Looks like I finished in 17th place, not a bad showing for this years contest. Looking forward to 2026

Back to overcast...some lazy flurries floating around. 27F

IDK...I think the +TNH regime is clear as day. I agree the details need to be worked out, but I don't think there is much ambiguity concerning the larger scale pattern.

so you're saying 25% of average is not good? Yeah, way too warm for you guys in December. I am going to have to use my magnetic powers to pull in some storms for you guys, get some snowpack in the mountains

Psychologically, we humans have an ingrained tendency to believe pessimism protects us from pain and disappointment. It doesn't, of course. So it goes here. Endlessly reflecting on our own and each others' psychological status, every season, every week, every day and hour. As much or more discussed than weather, fr. Quite a hobby innit? Can't forget to add the obvious: most of us are also very ill when it comes to snow.

@mitchnick mitch what's wrong with it!

All obs this year for me are from Fallston, MD - 11/30 - T 12/2 - A little frz rain to start - trees and car glazed - but 35 and rain for most of event 12/5 - T (dusting from a few hours of flurries as dry cold death air ate any chance of anything else north of BWI 12/14 - 4” 1/2 - .2" (frontal passage snow squall dealie) Running season total - 4.2”

Pretty nice look IMO.

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign.

If it makes you feel any better, had rain in Vegas NYE and was basically damp and soggy all day yesterday. Looks like I’ll be coming back early next week to a warmista pattern (I’m kinda ok with it tbh). Mid Jan looks to be the start of the most important pattern in this forum’s history.

yup. we've been saying that for days... we have to get thru this week ... large sweeping changes in the Pacific have yet even begin. It starts doing so in earnest this week. until that's further along there is likely to be greater guidance variability than normal, even at larger scales of pattern orientation. just gotta wait it out, man

And if the gradient sets up north of you, then it's certainly far north of SNE and NYC area. All the weather stories are talking about the record warmth across CONUS next week. Warmest anomalies will be to our west of course, and Central US has barely seen a flake all season. That's a bit telling imo

They’ve been burned by the years where the warmups started and never ended.

Late January will be crucial...if the gradient sets up just north of me, as it has so often and as @jbenedet indicated, then SNE is most definitely cooked in terms of seasonal totals. Wolfie, please put the fangs away...that doesn't preclude a great stretch, but all I'm saying is that climo snowfall is by the boards for SNE if latter January screw us. Maybe not for select areas in CT that got 8.5" last week-

Negative NAO patterns are useless Give me a negative epo or positive PNA pattern anyday

We can still score with above normal or a near normal temp profile in Canada. What we don't need is an arctic high pressing so far south that it's 0 degree and dry as a bone. Our best snows are thread the needle honestly. Some win some don't but that's winter in the SE.

Jan/Feb pattern forecast:

It's definitely michsnowfreak's time for sure this winter Nickel & dimed to death, but mostly consistent snowcocer and cold, lol...

Apparently as we await the warm up, it looks like deep winter in Chester. Snow on top of snow pack, with temps that haven’t cracked 32 in about 72-96 hours.