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Big fat boys with moderate snow

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

My opinion on this map and on this map only....Ridge out west not sharp enough and trof too far east and positively tilted and best 500 MB HT departures too far south and east. Not much downstream to force the trof to start to swing negative in time to make surface feature come close enough. Hence probably why the OP is OTS. Having said all that....still lots of time for changes....for better or worse.

Well to quit already would be silly. A day ago this wasn't even a possibility, then we saw multiple model suites, ensembles, and AI models give varying solutions that were hits or close. I myself don't love this threat, but its a lot less dead right now than it was this time yesterday even...

6z threw us a bone and we are in a treadmill trying to catch it. Holding out hope that 18z euro and 00z suite comes back

Had 4 snow blowers break at work today. The three inches of compacted sleet were not messing around.

This it? ICON from Pivotal

That's a BIG storm. I wonder if there are analogs.

Best snow growth of the entire event right now. We've picked up an additional 1.7" since noon today, which brings the storm total to 18.0 inches. We'll see if we can still pull off 20" before all is said and done.

need that to go more neutral or negative

Mix results so far for the 18z cycle.

Lol claiming that this thing is cooked is ridiculous. It could very well go the way we want it, miss just offshore, or miss further offshore. The trend this season has been for N and W shifts. We saw last week that NS interactions are very hard to pin down more than 72 hours in advance. We gotta be patient before we toss this or claim victory

Excellent. We had this same problem with the last storm. Then it came too far north.

Expect he’s a weenie and didn’t actually measure and I actually did but sure COCORAHS ...Westchester County... Somers 17.0 in 0917 PM 01/25 Public 2 SSW Greenville 16.5 in 0910 PM 01/25 Public 2 SSW Golden`s Bridge 16.5 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter Dobbs Ferry 15.0 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 1 SE Sleepy Hollow 15.0 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Mamaroneck 14.5 in 0940 AM 01/26 1 SSE Valhalla 14.5 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter Peekskill 2.8 NNE 14.0 in 0700 AM 01/26 COCORAHS Shrub Oak 14.0 in 0630 AM 01/26 COOP 1 SSW Jefferson Valley 14.0 in 0800 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Briarcliff Manor 13.1 in 0820 PM 01/25 Public 1 ENE Peekskill 13.0 in 0727 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 1 NE North Castle 13.0 in 0510 PM 01/25 Public South Salem 12.6 in 0715 AM 01/26 COCORAHS 1 NNE Hastings-on-Hudson 12.5 in 1038 PM 01/25 Public 1 ESE Croton-on-Hudson 12.5 in 0743 PM 01/25 Public Hartsdale 12.5 in 0344 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter 1 E Scarsdale 12.0 in 0930 PM 01/25 Public 1 N Briarcliff Manor 12.0 in 0805 PM 01/25 Public Tuckahoe 12.0 in 0542 PM 01/25 Public Armonk 11.7 in 0800 AM 01/26 COCORAHS 2 NW Woodlawn 11.7 in 1036 PM 01

This isn't our storm

WB 18Z GEFS

Ratios were over 20:1 to start up here in OC. By mid-afternoon they were under 10:1. Finished with 1.67" L.E here imby

Holy crap. That’s awful! I’ve seen huge chunks come off of semi trailers on the interstate, but there’s no excuse for it to come off a passenger vehicle. Glad that you’re safe!

Boy, they did a terrible job clearing the roads on my hill. Rt6 is fine but everything else I was on was sketchy at best. Then you have the crappy plow guys that push across the street and leave a bump in the bank.

Unscientific measurement from the back of my flatbed truck, southwest corner of Ellington.

Snowing as hard as anytime yesterday and accumulating faster in this band

Instead of 150 miles southeast of Hatteras, it should be on the coast at Morehead City.

Turns out that NYC tied the daily precip record of 1.80" for Jan 25, the earlier mentioned 1.82" includes .02" after midnight apparently. So it's a tie with the 1978 rainstorm component of the Great lakes blizzard/superstorm low that gave some places 15-30 inches of snow overnight into 26th Jan (1978). I will adjust any tables I have posted at end of month giving NYC a chance to settle their accounts, sometimes what you see one day is not there forever. Don, here's a challenge, I could work on this too, but what is the largest differential between a record snowfall and record precip or any precip on the 10:1 basis? I realize yesterday's storm was bulked up for precip by sleet that was also in the snowfall total. In Canadian climate records this might appear something like 0.20" rain and 12" snow for 1.80" precip. Canadian climate records show separate rain and snow amounts for every day and they seem to handle sleet a bit differently than U.S. practice. I am aware of one case where 40 mm of precip was really 10 cm of sleet but they give a 10 cm snow total for that case, and 30 mm rainfall. Part of the problem (if this can be described as a problem) is that Canadian observing practice was strictly 10:1 snow to precip untiil 1962 then changed to melt-it-down whatever-it-actually-was conversions after 1962. Thus if I look at some old storm record and it says 10.0" snow, 1.15" precip and 0.15" rain, I cannot say for sure whether that was rain, freezing rain, sleet melted down or whatever. Anyway, yesterday's differential was about 0.66" from 10:1, some values in Feb 1920 are definitely larger on a daily basis.

Just looking at the short range models...there looks like some light snow showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. With these temps...very little precip can go a long way.

We found out one thing we do well…sleet. We sleet better than anyone