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Its actually a bit better than the GFS to be fair... C and NE MD get decent hit

Also an extremely strong temp gradient from the 925-700mb levels which contributes to baroclinicity.

It’s like a mini version of Colorado’s two winters per season. Data nerd recommendation…a relative stacked bar chart based on the past 20 years with the separations based on the different deviations from average temps on that date.

Further west and sharper with the SW/PV interaction. Postive steps and vibes lol

DC is a snow town?

On the GFS at 246, you can really see the Chinook blowing over the peaks of Colorado's Rockies. That "should" be followed by a cold air mass diving down the Plains behind it. Let's see if it can make it SE. About half the model runs shunt it across the northern border. About half, it's a jailbreak.

Good points. For the last few months, these modeled warm ups got muted or vanished as they got closer in time. I do think this upcoming one has legs, it’s just happening about a week later than I originally thought (mid-dec).

Wrong

Nickels and dimes?

UK looks like the GFS for Sunday

25.2° -SN Working on another tenth.

The 12z Canadian(even for the cold bias CMC) has a very cold air mass for early next week. Wind chills in many places are below zero w/ temps in the single digits. Portions of TRI are in the low single digits (or slightly bz) by Monday morning.

Gfs shows more snow for Sunday. Euro has been killing it tho as far as modeling with both events we've had the past week. So for me need to see the Euro be on board.

Im sure it will find a way to shift north or south of me still. The dome is strong. Ha. I feel most optimistic about Thurs. Sat I feel might end up even more south unfortunately. 12z gfs has me on northern edge. We shall see. Definitely a notable south trend.

It was about a week in advance when the models suddenly got colder for the period starting a few days before Thanksgiving. We’re now about a week before the progged big warmup in the E US. Just saying although I’m not saying that will likely happen again. But it’s good to stay grounded due to the inaccuracy of models more than a week out.

Cvill Jack on the 3k Nam would be insanely funny

12z UKIE has some snowTV Friday evening into Friday night... dusting to maybe half an inch across the region

Coldest start to December since 1989, which was 14° BN for Dec 1-9 (in Gardiner). First flakes at 10:25 this morning, not including the 0.1" dusting last night. (Had to use the decimal as T mucks up my formulas.) DECEM 2025 Date High Low Mean HDDs Rain Snow Snowpak Departure 1 34 16 25 40 1 -2.4 -2.4 2 21 10 15.5 49.5 0.43 5.2 6 -11.2 -6.8 3 33 19 26 39 0.06 1.7 7 -0.2 -4.6 4 30 6 18 47 0.00005 0.00005 6 -7.8 -5.4 5 16 -9 3.5 61.5 6 -21.8 -8.7 6 18 -4 7 58 0.00005 0.00005 5 -17.8 -10.2 7 26 3 14.5 50.5 0.04 0.5 6 -9.9 -10.1 8 20 -3 8.5 56.5 0.05 0.9 6 -15.5 -10.8 9 18 -18 0 65 6 -23.3 -12.2

What you call an agenda is simply the recognition of how much warmer our climate has become. We have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 with only 1 top 10 coldest. So our colder periods like December 1 through December 16th this month have been few and far between. The link below shows just how much of a novelty this cold period has been compared to all the warm months in the 2020s so far. But I get it that you are a bit of a joker which is fine. I also come from a practical joker background and I can be a bit of a stand up comedian in person. We would probably have a fun time if we ever met at forum conference. Many of my friends from Long Beach which were in the aviation industry also had great sense of humor which I appreciated. One of the wildest times post flight at the local airport bars occurred after encountering some surprise 60 KT winds which weren’t forecast very well on landing at JFK back in the late 80s. My friends roommate was one of the best pilots at the time and he said it was his bumpiest landing he ever had at JFK. The whole flight crew ran straight for the bar after that flight.

snow reports and radar from Michigan

Yes I believe it is having some impact, not sure its a ton of the reason but that event being more washed just based on usual tendencies when two waves are in fairly close proximity helps

Main reason I want this to happen is it increases the odds the Giants lose a game that is very winnable....

Snow mixing back in now. The lake effect squall forecast on the HRRR looks impressive this afternoon. Should rip for a couple of hours.

Seems like Friday is petering out and headed south but hopefully that translates to a better outcome on Sunday. I’ll invoke 2 rules from the handbook and sacrifice Friday for Sunday while also needing the current clipper to exit so we get a better handle on the weekend.

Nice right entrance region of the jet max over us also around 6-12z on the gfs.