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Euro caving to GFS??

If we miss out on the weekend we have clipper after clipper through the whole run.

Closed off at 96!!

The poorly placed snow piles in the densely packed streets of downtown Jersey City right now are a mess. Another 8-12 inches would be murder with this cold. .

streets are already a disaster

The ONE time we need the GFS to lead, and it might just do that. If we're looking at this same look at Wednesday 12z (or better yet, trend even better), we might have something on our hands.

Looking at panels Euro is def trending toward GFS. GFS has a little more tilt to it. Optimistic here on our chances!

Yes the shortwave is in Missouri now at 84,in line with the GFS/Canadian.That's a sizeable jump right there.

Incoming!!

PRELIMINARY First pass snowfall totals for CT. If anyone has anything they'd like to add, change or adjust let me know in the next 12 hours or so. I'll have all of SNE/Tri-State and CT done by tomorrow sometime. Not sure if the ranges will change yet, will need to see the whole scope of the area to determine.

Ah Canadian only runs every 12 hours? Am I seeing that right?

18z Euro still has the dual lows that pinwheel it NE at the surface as it gains latitude.

The Euro suite is coming now

Whatever ya say dude. I'm not arguing with you about it.

The surface depiction is very sensitive to the timing of the negative tilt and closing off, correct?

Puff the magic dragon .. lived by the sea?

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

Yeah. I’m pretty sure I haven’t seen that info in the weenie handbook. Maybe it’s in a later chapter? I don’t know. I hate reading books. Anything after the cover of the book— I just put it down and go eat a plate of bitchin nachos instead.

I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.

Def don't hate Euro yet 5h at 078

Pretty big jump west there. Curious to see eps

A NWS office doesn't "know better" than others if their forecast is an outlier and then they shift towards consensus the day of. They were behind the curve on the last storm.

What was the Canadian model run like? I feel like that did best at this point last week

Euro AI…and this is just 10:1..substantial westward expansion

I'll have to see the euros h5 vort panels to compare but right now the differences between the euro and gfs are pretty small. Gfs is just a little quicker to close off and go negative. Like what I said recently with the euro trough pointing at 1 o'clock and the gfs at high noon. If the euro moves that direction at 0z it gets real interesting