All Activity

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed throuhh the end of the month is cold air. GFS has a larger storm just offshore for the 18th. Euro has nothing. All models are signaling a larger storm around the 23rd. Looks like colder air sets in on Wednesday; ending our thaw, and then arctic air comes in next weekend and stays (probably some slight moderation at time) throuhh the end of the month. Very active long range signal. Not just for here but finally for central and south US as well. Will winter finally begin for those places?

Probably as good as the GFS Shoveling Friday.

Be careful about having the phase 8 signal shrink in future guidance...

That was a lot of rain/mix for all that cold lol

Looking at things currently from a model standpoint it looks like this weekends flow snow will be better than the Wednesday night flow snow but things can still change.

If we don't keep Dallas, then we have to re-sign Grant Calcaterra. But we need to keep at least one, and draft a tight end in the early rounds.

If you like cold, you will love the 18z gfs.

Agreed, but there already is a whiner thread.

Looked like a 3rd one was lining up at the end too.

Surprised no one mentioned (assuming I didn't miss it) the end of all 3 ensembles from 12z. Incredible agreement and great, great pattern. Here's the Eps with links to the other 2. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384

oh gotcha, that makes more sense. That was basically unprecedented since record keeping. Even crazier that it happened it a near ratter winter that was on the level of 2001 or 2006 the way it started

Pretty much a believe when see type thing at this point. I mean it’ll be in the heart of climo if it did materialize, so great timing there, but that’s a big IF at this point. But at least it’s showing it currently.

I think he was talking about the 3-week "blitz"....not just the 1/26-27 blizzard. We're unlikely to see that again in our lifetimes. Getting 80-100" of snow in 3 weeks is pretty hard to pull off.

Feel like this is easier said than done for many folks here …

Yeah, we'll see. I don't disagree with anything you've said. It's worth mentioning is all. Not saying anyone should believe anything... that's on them.

we should just make this futility thread considering who made it and the stupid title it has, just post all the garbage, meltdowns and whining and complaining in here, why not.

In all fairness Anthony, I don’t think anybody cares about LE here in SNE. I mean good for them, but that doesn’t float anybody’s boat in SNE.

Yeah the joint EPO/PNA ridge....kind of like 2015. Usually doesn't verify these days, but I'd take even just the PNA part since antecedent cold in Canada will already be good.

Low of 28, high of 50. Almost forgot what it is like to be cold.

I do have a question. You have mentioned the wave lengths get shorter in February? If I remember correctly? What does that refer to or mean?

Gfs with two decent snows on it this run. Be curious to see Gefs if they light up more.

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year.

Alot of trolls

Lake areas are going to get slammed coming up. Wouldn't be shocked to see Owesgo hit 200 inches.

And we are still in a retrograding pattern at 500. Just watch the ridge. Every time a trough comes through, it pops back up further west. The EPO looks like it wants to hold, but when it gets pushed out....up goes the SER and then it retrogrades. Weeklies update for today....see the comment I just made. Seasonal to BN temps as base pattern but with warmth(some very warm days) embedded w/ those ridges. Retrograding ridges and troughs. I think we eventually see the TPV get trapped(have I said that prior?) under HL blocking. That is when the real fun and games might begin.