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1920’s relieved

Did SPC nudge a 60% wind in the d2 mod risk, or was that always there?

When I bought my house, one of my asks for the realtor was no trees that could reach the house. Needless to say it was a hard find, but we did end up finding one! It also has a brand new metal roof, so the rain sounds fantastic! What I didn't notice is that a neighbors gutter goes right into a low spot near the house, so... that's my next worry.

Thanks for this. Remarkable this occurred up here back then. Today? Much more likely with climate changes.

https://www.aacps.org/ 5 p.m., 3/15/26: Due to the forecast for severe and dangerous weather, including potential tornadoes in the afternoon, all schools will close 2 hours early on Monday, March 16. There will be no afternoon half-day ECSE programs, no afternoon CAT Center programs, and no JROTC programs. In addition, all school field trips for Monday, March 16, are canceled. Students will be transported home via normal routes at dismissal times that are two hours earlier than normal. All activities beyond the regular school day, including magnet extended day programs, extracurricular activities and all Evening High School classes, will be canceled on Monday, March 16. For the status of activities sponsored by agencies other than Anne Arundel County Public Schools, please check with those agencies.

Thats odd, AACo schools just declared a 2hr early dismissal tomorrow. I don't recall that ever happening. I could be wrong. Is this really going to be that bad?

Far NW side of Chicago and the drop in temperatures was nuts. Wind direction went from the south to a strong NW. Crazy roller coaster today

Thanks bro I know I saw that that's why I deleted it lol

Was already posted!

Anne Arundel Co is dismissing 2 hours early tmrw.

Very similar here in North Ridge in Alexandria.

I was just playing around with the archived radar data that’s on RadarScope Pro the other day. Here’s that tornado, that’s a pretty pronounced velocity couplet for 1998 NEXRAD data. It was roughly reading 110-115mph gate to gate on the data.

The storm currently bringing blizzard conditions to parts of the Upper Midwest will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region tonight and tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Strong thunderstorms are possible in parts of the area. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Temperatures should return to the middle and upper 40s by Thursday and the 50s to end the week. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. The major weather story this week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.602 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Just pondering the definitions and inner workings of SPC outlooks....I try not to be that person who continuously "forecasts the forecast" - but I could see SPC going to 75% wind but perhaps holding to CIG1. My reasoning is that the SPC outlooks are "within 25 miles of a point" - I don't think you're going to see much argument from most folks with setting that probability to 75% if severe criteria is 58mph. I'm less certain of TOR percentages - I am not sure that will go any higher than 15% unless there is a game time identification of a more robust corridor of tornado risk. Upping TOR percentages is harder because of the more isolated nature of that type of severe. If there truly is a QLCS - even if it only has sporadic swaths of 58mph winds in it - in a major metro corridor like I-95 - you're going to probably verify on damage reports pretty easily on the wind category. Anyway - I'm just rambling - and I do think we stick to a moderate - but I could see them tickling the high risk even more by bumping to 75%. They can go to 75% and still have this be a moderate risk.

My house is surrounded by monster trees. We can go to the basement during the line if it looks really bad.

Well, you'll have no idea if you dropped Pivotal, lol (too early)...

Lots of BLDU obs out there at the manned ASOS sites. Love to see it.

this month we've had snow soon after 80 degrees, so maybe we can also get snow soon after a tornado, snownado?

What about 1986 and 2009? (I'm not including 1987, because that el nino was already in progress, and it had dissipated already by the end of winter 1988... giving a jump start on the very strong 1988-89 la nina).

Yeah, feel the big tree concern. I am in the DC condo situation so I’m unconcerned, but family is well in the forests of Arlington. Big tree took down the neighbor’s roof during the derecho. We get ours inspected every year since that but it always scared me during thunderstorm season.

Good to hear! We're in the foothills not too far from you as the crow flies. We've picked up some snow as well this month. Unfortunately every bit of moisture we get is quickly sucked up by the un-ending wind. I've lost track of the severe wind events we've had this past fall/winter; we've had our power knocked out 4 or 5 times.

Perhaps I am wrong, but based on experience I tend to be highly skeptical of these forecasts when there is an easterly flow off the very cold Atlantic ocean. That is a stable air flow in March. The forecasts stubbornly have rain tonight. It likely will not happen until the flow is southerly (later in the am.) Hopefully the action heats in the afternoon, but I have a hard time believing we have anything beyond mist until then.

I’m definitely disappointed we missed out on big dog numbers. It looks like 10-14” totals in the southern burbs a few miles south of the airport, but this has still been a quality storm. Snowing all day and top tier time outside with the kids.

This is nuts

You’ve inspired me. I think we will do Panera! Here’s a picture of the hundred plus foot trees around my house