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I wasn’t joking when I said that I had 02 flashbacks after that first insane run. That unfortunately hasn’t changed much for what I’m expecting for MBY, but I do believe that the sleet potential will be much higher than what is currently shown for a lot of people

I have to say I know people say Euro is the king, but it kind of sucks if it shows a foot of snow for a lot of people in NC 4-5 days out only to jump to freezing rain 3-4 days out. Maybe it got it "right" before the GFS did, since the GFS is still showing snow changing to a mix for some in NC, but the Euro was showing a huge snowstorm just like the GFS was less than 36 hours ago.

Do we still want to do a meet-up on Friday afternoon/evening?

Primary does not go as far north on the 6z EURO. Less mixing. Interesting look on the individual eps panels. Definitely 2 camps.

Man, I'm so confused by you. You were adamant that this was going to be south of us. You were absolutely sure this was going to stay south of us. Now you're suggesting that it's going to go north and trend warmer. Hmmmm.....

6z Euro ticked south a hair

On the bus heading into the office now. People next to me chatting excitedly about the snow. Should I tell them it’s going to be sleet instead?

6z left. 0z right. 11mb difference(increase) in hp over Montana. Notice the system at 6z doesn't get as far north on this frame. It eventually gets there, but those are pretty big changes. HUGE difference between a 1028hp and 1039.

So I got some clarity from Jeremy DeHart on Twitter. Jeremy is an AF Reserve Meteorologist for the Hurricane Hunter missions for many years now. He stated that last night mission was a reposition flight back to Keesler. The mission today will sample the Baja low with additional missions sampling the Gulf tomorrow.

Very exciting times finally something to post about this winter. I’m looking forward to meso range and start seeing the high-end potential.

Yep soon time for the short range models to show the glory.

You never know who you will find doing photography or video in NYC.

What a blend. 15+ inches region wide

I want @Ji to chime in on this one as he is the SME on this topic. If I had to guess (especially given the major rug pulls over the last 10 years) almost all of them were lost in 72-120 range.

Snow water content as measured by snotel data is probably the single most important fall/winter/spring weather-related metric for the West. And that data for this season so far is generally dismal. It is in fact breaking records in many locations. December was the warmest on record in many parts of the West. So, while it is great that parts of the Southwest have been somewhat wet, this has been an exceptionally poor “cold” season so far for much of the western U.S.

The northern stream is going to be problematic. The one time we actually don't want a triple-phaser. In this case, too early to get cute about where the mix line sets up, namely because both the kicker and the main trailing N/S shortwaves are still over the Russia and the Arctic Ocean and haven't yet become their own entities. My guess is we're going to get flung around for a while. Good news is anything but the perfect phase on the 00Z euro and ukie should result in a retreat south with time. Saw a bit of that on the 06Z Euro. A retreat or slowing of the primary N/S beyond what has already been modeled should result in an increasingly positive tilted trough that comes out more piecemeal than perfect.

0.0 in Naperville. Glad we got that WWA. .

I was about to ask if the blend had the ability to adjust its input on the fly based on climo and analogs. .

Many of the lower valley locations across the area saw temperatures below zero overnight and this morning. The lowest was the 8.1 below zero at the Warwick DEOS site this is the 2nd coldest reading in station history behind only last January 22nd with a low of 9.1 below zero. The West Chester DEOS recorded it's coldest temperature in station history when the mercury fell to 1.9 degrees below zero this morning. Both stations have records back to 2012. We should see temps get close to freezing this afternoon and even milder tomorrow with highs near 40 degrees to melt some of the snow cover. The milder air is a one-day event as colder air moves back in tomorrow night setting the stage for what could be a major winter storm beginning as early as late Saturday or early Sunday morning. Snow may last into Monday morning before tapering off.

-5 here, about 15 mins from Peapack/Gladstone

DT nervous?

Many of the lower valley locations across the area saw temperatures below zero overnight and this morning. The lowest was the 8.1 below zero at the Warwick DEOS site this is the 2nd coldest reading in station history behind only last January 22nd with a low of 9.1 below zero. The West Chester DEOS recorded it's coldest temperature in station history when the mercury fell to 1.9 degrees below zero this morning. Both stations have records back to 2012. We should see temps get close to freezing this afternoon and even milder tomorrow with highs near 40 degrees to melt some of the snow cover. The milder air is a one-day event as colder air moves back in tomorrow night setting the stage for what could be a major winter storm beginning as early as late Saturday or early Sunday morning. Snow may last into Monday morning before tapering off.

Looks like Webb caving

You might have to dust off the big daddy hat