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Maybe I'll be wrong this time, but as I will defer to my seasonal research until it's obvious that it isn't going to work. Hasn't me astray yet this season, with the exception of the latter January NAO blocking.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

I think people forget how warm March has gotten around here. It almost never snows outside the mountains in March these days. And on the uncommon occasions it does, it melts in a day or two. I think we need winter to deliver in February, preferably the first half. Technically it can snow right into April, but climate norms and sun angle get hostile to the winter vibe really fast after mid-Feb. near the coast at 40 degrees north.

Here’s my home station. Weather for York, PA - via Weather Underground. View on the web: York, PA https://www.wunderground.com/weather/39.9,-76.8, Download Weather Underground app https://www.wunderground.com/download

With the snow today its 21 days in a row with snow here at DTW. I am tired

I wouldn't mind a 3/14/23 event...

I saw that yesterday on the Euro site weeklies page and was wondering why no one had mentioned it. I've taken enough shade this winter, so I figured somebody would bring it up. Lol

Exactly.

@so_whats_happeningDo you have the link to those EURO images?

Not trying to burst the meme bubble ... but until that registers in the models as successfully to and thru the 100 mb level, it's unclear (likely not) that there's destined to be a wholesale sigma coupling that eventually/really involves the troposphere. That may yet happen, but support for that is very vague for the time being. 300 hour GFS from recency does shows up heights height response over the Alaska sector, so we may just need to bide time

I really, really need to put my personal station online. I just haven't since I got my new one. This one is right down the road from me...maybe .2 miles? I'm literally in the radius of this station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KPAMARIE28?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1aUZn05v6EL1SCu83D6YWAz4KB0xPA7zBHapk7ZxcoZfWMxfMgsX9YEUY_aem_AatgGdtB3HDmy_lQiEQW3p1bDKQzlUbvSccn8VpHsQ_8zcjQ2DxBPNU21ROdUrVrozfMvldDScho9lY6LgyGK0dL It's already 31 in Maytown.

Ray would like proof

With the strat warming event forecasted, this has the feel of a “she’s not gonna let us out” winter. Hopefully March can bring us high end storm opportunities.

Guidance was originally insistent that the RNA pattern from the month of December would persist throughout the vast majority of the month of January, with the exception of a brief interval of PNA flex the second week of the month (10th-15th). The above annotation ultimately proved correct in asserting that the forecast return of RNA after mid-month, as suggested by guidance, was in fact erroneous.

I’m guessing East based solutions just increase the odds of a whiff for everybody?

I was just shoveling in a t-shirt and sweating my ass off. I'm calling 45 for the high. Already blasting past the forecast as usual.

I'm not arguing with your interpretation of what guidance shows now, rather I'm arguing that it's still adjusting and not there yet. Wouldn't be the first time.

What was the total I sent you prior to the 19” big un? I thick was 26 right? So 45”

yeah, it was def a north/south gradient. Actually a prettty historic event way north with amounts over 18" in far northern MA. It was the 6-7th btw. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-6-7-2024

Anybody get the feeling we’re going to get a pasting before winter is over? We seem to be headed for a thaw but if we can get some cold air back on this side of the globe at the end of Feb, I think we might. Been a long time since we’ve had a 5:1.

I am ready to move on to severe season being nothing will make up for the screw job on 1/31. Once you get past Valentine's Day it gets a lot harder to get anything worthwhile in most years.

Some of us might get pity snow tonight. It may even coat the ground!

Vortex stretching is the term but Im still not seeing a split take hold even with the Euro to 240. It took roughly 30 days to translate to the surface in 2018 (split occurred around the first few days of February) leading to the snowfall events around presidents day and into March. Much different outlook this go around.

Yep, that's one degree lower than my forecast which makes total sense.