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Ill wait of course until we actually start to see things evolve the next few weeks but I think I remember Bluewave mentioning awhile back about what would be the threshold needed to overcome such a dipole of west to east Pac. We saw ONI from 2015 reach 3C in the intra timeframes overall 2.8 trimonthly and we were still left with a healthy WPAC warm pool.

Yea, if this one ends up discharging all of that record breaking, pent up WPAC warmth….holy s*it. Paul would not be exaggerating, we would be talking a historic level El Niño. This one is also developing as a “classic”, canonical east-based/East Pacific (EP) event like 1997-98 did, which has been a staple of the strongest El Niños we’ve ever seen

A couple of points to add to Don's. The absorption bands of CO2 and H2O are different. There's overlap in some regions, but CO2 also absorbs in regions where H2O doesn't. More importantly H20 has a much higher boiling point than CO2 and is a liquid at atmospheric temperatures while CO2 is a gas. Because of the higher boiling point the amount of H2O in the atmosphere is controlled by temperature. As Don points out, CO2 is more important relative to H2O in the upper atmosphere where heat is radiated to space and it is too cold to hold much water vapor. The difference in boiling points makes CO2 the earth's thermostat despite H2O's relative abundance. CO2 controls the amount of H2O in the atmosphere. If there was less CO2 there would be less water vapor. If all the CO2 was removed then the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere would drop by 90%.

Drought update: I have received 4.63 precipitation so far this month and 6.47 for the year. Andrea Michaels FOX43 DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS A little good news for parts of the state! This morning, the weekly Drought Monitor Update was released, and there are some improvements. The most notable change was in South Central PA, where much of Mifflin, Juniata, and Perry counties saw improvement, along with portions of Dauphin and Lebanon counties. They went from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D0 (Abnormally Dry). The far eastern Lehigh Valley saw spottier improvements, going from a D2 (Severe Drought) to D1. Hopefully more rain will keep it coming!

We have not been able to flush out the WPAC warmth which at some point has to be redistributed. The last couple El Nino events have not had intense WWB events and this potentially has the chance to uproot at least a good portion of that warmth. This certainly will be interesting to watch going forward. I know we have had many discussions on here about stuck patterns/ new norms but eventually they do break down, I do wonder what such an event would cause. Time to watch and learn. Here is 2015 and well 2023 virtually was non existent for a wind anomaly in both March and April. I do wonder with it being so far north what this could mean. We did not reset the Pacific pattern like we saw with the large push in 1997/98 take a look at subsurface and surface anomalies for an example. So maybe in order to tame/remove this heat engine that has been persistent we start to push the bounds of what we have known. To add the breadth and overall strength of such an event is important as placement.

The only ones I can find is 1982-83 (super el nino) -> 1986-88 (double year strong el nino) -> 1991-92 (strong el nino). The first two events combined to produce the first jump in global temperatures. Pinatubo prevented another temperature jump after the 91-92 event. Then again, this was all under a largely +PDO period.

All i have to say is wow

Yeah, crazy! I don't think there were many northern Orange County official reports out of frustration with that storm LOL. Albany's map for that storm comes close to showing how the cutoff went. You can see in this satellite shot from their page that I'm was in the black hole.

Spc brings back the chance of some thunderstorms on sunday. Right now they have idea of deeper convection in far western pennsylvania. Hopefully plenty of sunshine breaks through Saturday and Sunday.for those of us who need it. SPRINGS BACK BABY !!! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Took a while but BTV got on board. Projecting 4” here with tomorrow but I think 5-6” is possible if we don’t get any last minute shifts. Sunday-Monday still up in the air.

Gfs/ai gfs looked good

Nice track but no cold

Gfs is further south and has no snow for SNE.

He's an early riser so I'll stub.

Jesus 0.4 from Campbell Hall to 11.2 in Highland Mills

it was sometime in the mid-late 90s I think. but yeah - feels like we got freezes every year at least into early May.

00z HRRR going bonkers and showing 87 for the QC on Saturday.

I received 11.2 from that storm. Just far enough south to catch the north end of a few heavy bands but to far north to stay in them and missed out on the 25-30 inch amounts just to the south.

@ineedsnow

105 today in Phoenix

The cold pattern in the Eastern US feels like it's already broken this month. Many places are several degrees above average for March.

I'm generally a fan, but it's going to take some education. The TLDR is that SPC now has a way to highlight low coverage but high potential intensity events. I think about 6/1/11. Back then there was only a slight risk, but you could make an argument that coverage was reasonable for a slight only not enhanced. You can now add CIG zones to highlight significant tornado risk even in a 2% or 5%. That just wasn't possible before without a 10% hatched. There was complaining about the miss in MI on day 1. But there was literally no way in the old outlook system to put a significant tornado risk there without upgrading the entire outlook.

Very sad to hear. I will miss his updates.

Luckily its past 300 on an AI model

Im a weenie . What do you expect. Im still looking at the models but there is nothing exciting on them. No negative NAO No negative AO