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I am way behind... but the H5@36 looks fine

Wonder if that piece of energy over Tennessee is the fly in the ointment on that run.

Yes, basically if that keeps coming in fast it can start interacting more usefully with the trough, whereas if it is far away it won't hinder it from tilting, and landing in the middle area will prevent an easy tilt.

Are you just referring to the euro model?

river does not divide- geography does. S Mountains will be the dumping ground with oragraphic lifting and banding

I'm apologize what is the euro Skynet?

Euro never liked this storm.

No. It's another solution on the table.

Euro AI did drop qpf a bit. Per NE forum it seems to be average of 18z and 12z. CPK went from 1.3 to 1.1 so nothing too drastic.

hang on, that alberta vort is a bit closer than 18z. my thinking is that maybe we're risking a more OTS solution (bc it acts as a kicker) for a phase with that vort? maybe? idk.

so back to a non event for the Euro

Euro's gonna be east of 18z

Euro skynet sticking with SECS west MECS east of the river DT to a T

It's been back and forth a lot with this. But of course a further east track is definitely possible

Euro slower with the negative tilt this run.

I'll pass but thanks though. It's not as good as the gfs

less neg tilt at hour 42

noise

I hate to say it but it might be on to something, and I hate AI

As I said, post less

AI is basically back at 12z for totals, to put it in perspective.

Trough broader, and the euro is slightly east at 39

Remember folks on Accu forums back in the day talking about this guy - didnt know who he was then - still follow his page now , but yeah it is difficult to tolerate Dave...

00z EURO-AI taking a minor step back. Split the difference between the 18z and 12z.

i was going to say the same thing. Is the AI even a high res model?