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Give the way that evolves, that would have a high ceiling. You don’t necessarily see it this run on the QPF output…it’s “merely” a 7-12/8-14 type event (toss kuchera weenie maps which go wild with frigid temps) but you could potentially juice that up more with how that whole upper air evolves.

Too bad it’s a week away, what a look. Feels like we had something similar in, what Jan/Feb 2011?

Good observation GreyHat

i would take cmc all day, it develops another low something like the euro showed last night and snows all day monday into tuesday morning that's like 36 hours of snow

Yea, this is just a mind field of porks jobs for me....first issue is getting it up here, then second issue is subsidence from the CJ.

There is the DC to Boston snowstorm we have been missing for what seems decades now....

Gfs has always been horrible with big storms.

Subtle movements back and forth but a good run by the 12z gfs.

Honestly with the CMC being on the fringe of the snow line in the middle of the state (I-40ish) and the GFS going south of I-40, you have to think as a whole, TN is in a pretty good spot for a big hit. So long as things dont trend too much in one direction.

Back to what it was showing yesterday or so.

Let’s hope the GFS scores another coup like the other 2 MECS it’s predicted this winter

The CMC would be the best storm for most in many many years. It has literally all the ingredients that we love: cold temperatures, all-snow, long duration, includes part of weekend, high QPF. Anyone saying it's not a big storm is crazy. It might not drop record snow anywhere/everywhere, but in a few spots that could rival the big ones even as depicted.

Canadian shows a second low again.

Cmc goes from Sunday to Tuesday with 2 lows.

O Canada! That secondary pop would be amazing.

Do you mean Jan of 1994?

Given how this winter and the last few have gone I'd gladly take HALF of what the CMC just said and call it a good storm

Tough crowd lol

I will return the compliment to @PrinceFrederickWx, who was very helpful to me when I took over running the snowfall contest three years ago. He is also a thoughtful and considerate poster.

I still think they mostly end up sleet but long way to go. If some CMC version occurs or close to it the risk is there for mostly FZRA but they'd also be drier in that case though

I was reticent to share my thoughts on the upcoming system, because up until recently there had been a couple different "schools of thought," and even within those there are differential dynamics at play, like where the boundary sets, how cold is it, etc. It was also setting up outside of normal confidence windows (7-to-10 days). It all had to do with the ejection of the energy in the southwest. Some models would kick the energy out under the confluence and suppress it or shear it apart. Some models would hold and consolidate the energy to create something more akin to a SWFE (southwest flow event). We're seeing a lot more acceptance across multiple models now, however, so an event of some kind appears likely. I think the most relevant part to us is the level of phasing that occurs as that energy is stretched out from the southwestern CONUS. We see a relatively flat flow, overall, and the trough is never allowed to turn negative, which means we don't yet see a scenario where this turns and rides up the coast or is captured. The latter part is most relevant to the storm's overall potential and cap. Without a negatively-oriented trough, we aren't as likely to see "historic" numbers up along the Atlantic side. If you want an example of what I mean, look at the 06Z GFS at 300 hours (February 1st) and you'll see the type of negative turn coastal I describe. Simply described as "bombogenesis." We could still get a good haul from a long-duration overrunning event. That's what you're seeing in the southern US on the 06Z GFS, for example. Approaching two feet of snow in places like Chattanooga and Knoxville. Those numbers are unusual but not totally unprecedented. Chattanooga got 18" from the 1993 system, for example. Knoxville got 17.5" back in 1960. It is rare, to be sure, but it can happen, and the depth of the cold makes it a possibility. But the rarity should give you an indication of how likely model depictions are at this range. The biggest problem for us might be wave spacing combined with the confluence. You have a decent sized TPV lobe pushing down, but you also have another one or two discrete pieces of energy riding behind it. We're looking at a high of around 10 degrees on Saturday. That's colder than typically ideal when you're talking about big snows. There's also no real blocking in place. Some of the long-range looks appear to show a -NAO establishing itself. I think the main reason for this system, at all, is the sudden collapse of the AO (going deeply negative) and a transient PNA slide to neutral. If the MJO can continue propagating west, that might help keep our chances alive going forward. The AO is likely to rebound some but could stay well negative to displace the cold for us. As I'm typing this, we see how the 12Z GFS handles things quite different from 06Z. The 12Z keeps the energy separated and doesn't allow for any phasing to occur until the primary low is well out into the Atlantic. A lot of the energy from the 06Z that was stretched and created a SWFE was instead held back and closed off over Baja, Mexico on the 12Z. The 12Z Canadian is more like the 06Z GFS. The Canadian is a good middle ground, and while it is out of what we may consider an "ideal" position for us, ideal often means flirting with raindrops. Part of me thinks the even more interesting period to watch is after next weekend, but that much remains TBD. I'll probably dig into the maps a bit more later, hopefully after a few more model runs to see if any kind of consensus builds. There are a still a wide range of possibilities.

CMC keeps the snow going most of the day Monday. Not heavy but a very long duration event.

CMC follows euro and pops a secondary for a little back end action. I'd be giddy w/ what it shows. verbatim -30+ hrs of snow.

13z NBM after the 12z suite was ingested I assume.

Cmc looked great... Ukmet is next. Hope it holds what it showed at 00z