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The exact CONUS locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS. So December 2015 became a trendsetter and not an outlier. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

Looking ahead at the ensemble models it looks like above normal temperatures continue over the next month. That said keep in mind that our average normal temperatures continue to drop quickly over this timeframe. It also looks to be wetter than normal. Some models are even hinting at some accumulating snow by the week before Thanksgiving.

Looking ahead at the ensemble models it looks like above normal temperatures continue over the next month. That said keep in mind that our average normal temperatures continue to drop quickly over this timeframe. It also looks to be wetter than normal. Some models are even hinting at some accumulating snow by the week before Thanksgiving.

Forecast for us was 10-16, got 4.5" of slop with a brief power outage. Two days later the forest inventory contractor and I were checking field crew accuracy at Rangeley Bald Mountain, and the melting snow pelted us with icewater for the 8 hours we were out there. I've had nicer days. We actually had some clouds yesterday, an uncommon phenomenon lately.

Not this year, September (especially on Sunday) sucked lol

They ended up getting to 43 through cold advection I guess. The wind was from the north at like 7 kts early this morning.

I’m not against seeing +10 or more anomalies in the northern CONUS. I think this is quite probable. Im just not ready to say we rip +10 on the entire east coast. Especially towards the southeast like 2015. If we get an eastern ridge linking up with the Canadian ridge all bets off.

post about dec 2015 and the hive closes in

Should be good at 1,000 to 1,500 FT this weekend. We wasted two perfect weekends for higher elevations, totally sunny. Too many activities with two kids. We're hoping for some local spots that are less crowded; but of course, rain is forecast this weekend!

Seeing a lot of tracks like this showing up on the medium-long range models.

Everyone remembers 6/95...besides 8/10/00 the most lightning in sne

Records: Highs: EWR: 81 (1963) NYC: 82 (1963) LGA: 79 (1963) JFK: 78 (1963) Lows: EWR: 27 (1936) NYC: 28 (1936) LGA: 33 (1976) JFK: 31 (1976) Historical: 1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) 1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) 1943: Coastal storm ends drought, rains on 25th - 28th DC had 3.41 inches of rain and Baltimore got 5.00 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) The low temperature of 21 °F is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Richmond in October. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: Thousands of homes in southern and central Texas were without power after strong storms dumped as much as a foot of rain. The Frio, Guadalupe, and Llano rivers spilled their banks, making roads impassable and stranding some motorists. The Llano crested at 30 feet -- 18 feet above flood stage -- and Llano County sheriff's deputies were evacuating homes downriver. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2003: A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, causing an outbreak of severe weather. An F0 tornado touched down in Hainesport, NJ, killing one person. This was the first tornado fatality in Burlington County, NJ history both in modern tornado records kept since 1950, and in reliable unofficial records extending back into the 1700s. The tornado cut a path 1/2 mile long and 30 yards wide. Although the tornado was F0, it is considered a significant tornado, usually F2 or greater, because of the fatality. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. 2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. Marine boats sank, four homes destroyed, and part of a hospital roof collapsed. Hundreds of trees and power lines were down, but fortunately there were no serious injuries. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

We all know winter is going to be a blowtorch, no need to post anomaly maps Captain Obvious. Although you do need to open your viewpoint to see the entire board instead of just temps: We have descending solar + geomag interference A warm pool east of Japan and PDO that is being more stubborn than 4th Quarter/OT Dan Quinn playcalling A record warm Pacific in the ENSO regions but still have a nagging ENSO-cool background state that is persistent. A Polar Vortex that is going to be under repeated strain. And the ENSO is supposed to drop over the course of winter as we head towards another La Nina. However: the Pacific Firehose also means that we have AN precip on the East Coast that will help offset the AN temps. Lower snow ratios sure, but still snow chances from Nor'easters. The average temp for interior New England for example of around 25 in deep winter can survive a +7 easily and still get accumulation. Point is: record warm yes, but when you factor in everything else (QBO, AO, NAO, PNA, etc) in this specific combo? We all got to wait and see just how extreme it will be since computer models can both be too warm or too cool Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

15 +10 months somewhere in the country in the past decade and somehow dec 2015 is too extreme to consider

For those who don’t realize how unprecedented in the ERA5 records this is forecasted to be at 10mb, 60N: The 0Z 10/27/26 EPS mean is forecasted to be 10-14 below the weakest on record (I don’t know how far back though) and 24-29 below the mean per ERA5 data Nov 3rd-10th!

58 / 40 and the great stretch continues for late October. A touch cooler today and Wednesday then Thu - Sat should send most back to the 70s and temperatures will peak Friday with mid perhaps upper 70s. Overall warm 11/1 and beyond and dry through the 2nd with the next chance of meaningful rain towards the 2nd as weep trough into center of the nation.

This Halloween will be a stark contrast to the 2019 one. Had several inches of snow and temps in the 20s.

I hear you. I believe it’s more than just that. We are still in late October and I feel need to see how things develop in November and heading towards December. I know the strat stuff has mixed reviews on impacts but I still feel more comfortable seeing it taking strong hits than not. This El Niño is a beast and east-based, but the warmth in 3 and 3.4 is stronger than 1997 as well which can hopefully allow further westward movement of the North Pacific low a couple times if it also feels extreme blocking over the arctic. I think as a whole, it’ll be hard to fight the El Niño’s tendency to overwhelm but not impossible with other forcing from MJO and the arctic. Others have stated this kind of stuff already so nothing new, but I do feel is important. Being in MD, I’m just hoping for a good storm or two as we are long overdue for a big dog.

Thinking that there could be an interesting/more active pattern change coming mid-next week, with a much more seasonable airmass sticking around after like weds/thurs. Chances for rain showers, too

September is the sunniest month. I too have been enjoying this stretch. We'll have our share of storms and wind this winter

There is also no antecedent airmass to work with this early in the season.

Yes, all we can say is that this El Nino will be a bit warmer than it would have under identical conditions a decade ago....but not sure that is enough to account for the lack of MC contribution. We spent a decade observing how that amplifies warmth over the eastern CONUS, so we can't now pretend that it wasn't a factor.

all you need is a trough in the west and this happens