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Snowblower got a workout from that storm.

Upstate SC hasn’t seen at least an inch of snow in over four years. About to make it five. This Winter is boring.

1000mb mean pressure at this range is actually pretty significant.

EPS member mean has a Miller B behavior, albeit centered around 1000 mb give or take .. but the pressure pattern evolution is unmistakable from 200+ hours of way this is a fine signal. The 06z GFS as others have already pointed out was a canonical looking system. It's Miller A. The earlier 00z was amplified at the L/W scales, consistent with the erstwhile +PNA outlook/timing, but devoid of S/W mechanics capable of doing much of anything. The GEFs have a low passing through but it's unimpressive; again, not too concerned with that at 200 hours - plenty of time there. The 00z Canadian and any Canadian run for that matter going back several cycles have yet to do so either. The GEPs mean was a subtle improvement over the 12z run. These are all like 'taking a stab' at what 14-15-16 will be. Best not to commit to any one of these signal variances. The take away is that the signal is still there.

huge storm potential

EPS snow went from 0 to 1.5

A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not

Euro is close but out to sea. Man I hope the GFS is on to something and it isn't just more feedback.

Dover with 0.01” since midnight. And nothing upstream incoming… Bust.

Worst icing of this event are points south in SNE/CNE. Even the batch in western MA will miss my area to the south, later today.

Poor Wes

I was at PSU during the Blizzard of '96 so that has a special place in my heart as well. We missed out on the crazy totals (only 18 inches, haha).

I think everyone would take this!

Snow/IP at the moment First time I've heard IP hitting the windows this morning, probably all snow before. Looks like we'll just be having some of this for a while unless it warms quite a bit. I'll measure in a bit when I clear off my car. 23.7*

That lp track is the stuff drams are made of in east TN and the southern Apps. Just a tinge more cold air at that run.....

Whcih seems more likely in this setup correct?

Temperatures conducive but no precip. NWS forecast 0.1 -0.2” ice. Ain’t happening. 0.03” at PSM. DAW seems to be having issues but they must have also registered 0.03” or less through the morning….

Does anyone have that literature concerning 6-7 MJO pulse triggering a SSW?? I would like to view that....wasn't aware, but it's so neat that I came to that same conclusion on the Feb SSW using alternative methodology.

Light zr 29.8.. car is iced over

ZR falling again

Yea that run was a weather weenie’s paradise. Overall, the pattern held in the overnight guidance. It’s a step down process that gradually gets cooler over time. A -NAO really starts to show up later in the scene and bully some cold air down the east coast. That gfs fantasy run was something we really hasn’t seen in a while: deep CAD and a very dynamic shortwave digging all the way to the Gulf before a bee line north. A mauler from NC to Maine.

My response to the "there must be a very warm month imminent because of CC" is this....the NE has been by far the warmest quadrant of the country over the past decade, so TBH, it should not be a surprise that this has started to reverse over the past 1.5 winter seasons. I understand the implication of the west warm pool in forcing that type of pattern modulation, but I have always posited that mother nature will manufacture a way to maintain some semblance of an equilibrium moving forward, and it seems as though we have started to see that. I do expect snowfall to follow suite sooner rather than later, whether that be this year or in subsequent seasons.

The storm track is really not conducive for a ton of rain for us

Chris, you are correct, ice is burning through this, temps at my shop 30F now, ground temp, different story, usual side streets, walks stairs etc, slick, city out, bus routes etc. Lol need snow event! Going through salt over the last week!