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Good morning from Middleboro where the snow seems even more impressive today with the sun out.

This was one of the better measured snowfalls considering all the drifting. It also highlights how these narrow deformation bands can cause significant variation over a very small distance. You can see the spread between the airport at Newark and the Harrison coop. Central Park was nearly identical to the Greenwich Village measurement After looking at our snowfall over the years some things stand out. Most snowstorms drop the heaviest snow either just west of the NYC-LGA-JFK corridor or to the east across Long Island. 2016 and 2006 were the rare times the heaviest snow was centered at one of these stations. My guess is that the northwest wall of the Gulf Stream to our east provides the natural focus for the very deep lows that track near the benchmark. Terrain interaction with the coastal fronts also lead to a snowfall secondary snowfall maxima somewhere over NNJ into Orange, Rockland, or Westchester. Weaker storms with marginal temperatures often favor areas to the west of NYC. So this has lead to mostly Islip and secondarily Newark for the snowfall leaders among the major observation sites. Greenwich Village 20.4 in 0230 PM 02/23 Public Central Park 19.7 in 0100 PM 02/23 Official NWS Obs Newark Airport 27.2 in 0200 PM 02/23 Official NWS Obs Harrison 18.0 in 0445 PM 02/23 CO-OP Observer

The GFS was lights out on this storm and it’s amazing to me. It was at best frustrating throughout the rest of winter but it saw this storm and never lost it, never compromised the outcome and just kept full steam ahead with NAM 2016 energy. Taking this with the usual AI grain of salt but GPT-5 explained it that the Euro’s verification scores have the most to do with H5 synoptic performance and that sometimes the GFS is better able to resolve northeast coastal systems at lead. Good but, it’s not like the GFS did great to my memory with the other systems this winter, it was all over the place IIRC. Seems like it’s becoming more difficult to parse which model has the best read for any one event. Edit: Here’s my Garmin Instinct 3 barometer log throughout the storm just for fun

If you followed IMO a seasonal trend of storms trending south before back north next week looks pretty darn ok at the moment for a Snow to Ice to Rain scenario with the GS. Especially if it bumps south before coming back up north

Euro Ai has the Thursday night/ Friday event

6z GFS has it now

Another snow day tomorrow? And then we’ll see about Thursday night

Heard that before.

WB 0Z EPS for early next week.

Getting concerned about flood potential in the usual places. [emoji51] .

WB 0Z EPS shows maybe enough cold air with the negative WPO early next week, lights out for at least a while by the end of next week as warm air surges east.

WB 0Z EPS PNA support for early next week as well.

WB 0Z GEFS has the early next week threat as well.

March 2-3 still looking interesting with a weakish wave moving eastward underneath cold HP to the north.

Light flurries this morning still. It's very calm out there currently. Low of 12 degrees with another half inch picked up overnight it looks like. Might have been an inch but the wind was whipping everything around. So my storm total is 7.5 inches. Not too freaking bad at all.

Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows

Our total in Westfield is 8 inches. Same at a friend's house in Southwick. 12 inches even at my shop in Simsbury

SST trend so far this year is consistent with a nino spike to record temperatures, bit it is early in the nino cycle. I took years between 2010 and 2022 off the chart to better isolate 2023 and later at the top of the chart. On the chart, 2023 is the coldest of the 4 recent Jan and Feb, red is this year and orange 2025. So far this year SST are tracking 2023, but roughly 0.15C higher. The recent spike in SST has brought 2026 above 2025, approaching record SST in 2024. 2023 moved into record SST territory in mid-March. This year is on a similar pace.

Southwest corner of Ellington.

Here's a link to the Cansips SSTA starting in November. Looks basinwide with a lean to the west. Not a classic Modoki imho unfortunately. But the key will be the PDO and blocking coupled with this forecast, right or wrong. Forecast will be updated this weekend. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026020100&fh=9

Evolution of nino usually starts as east based then broadens to basin wide and ends as modoki as coastal South America cools/upwells. This time we should probably use RONI for the strength of el nino because the tropics are also warm across the board.

I have just seen the new CF6 tables through Feb 23 and no changes were evident, totals are still NYC 19.7, LGA 22.5, ISP 29.1, JFK 20.1, EWR 25.2

Zzzzzz

What is the period of record for the PVD snowfall record set yesterday? I have mentioned before having the daily weather journal of Alexis Caswell at Brown University in Providence spanning winters 1831-32 to 1859-60. In all of those winters, some quite severe, there are no two-day snowfall events (indicating storm totals) greater than 20" ... these are a few of the larger storm totals he recorded ... the largest storm total in Feb was 15.0" (1846) and in March 9.5" (1835). For Nov the max was 10" (29th 1841). All of the largest falls were in the three winter months except for one in April (1841). Jan 5-6, 1856 ___ 20.0" Jan 18-19, 1857 __ 18.0" Apr 12-13, 1841 __ 18.0" Dec 29-30, 1853 __ 18.0"

Well I’m not talking, I’m typing, so no can do. And does a 6 year old explain fully in detail the explanation of everything being thrown at them? You simply can’t handle negativity, even if it’s in text form; everything must be happy and positive. That’s an actual 6 year old, or being Woke. And I’m on an “Illegal” Weenie Run, finding out I was CORRECT in my assessment of these snowfall amounts. Doing 6 towns tonight and 6+ more tomorrow. Will show the results later.