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Check out that CCB, classic blizzard look.

OP euro came north with the qpf field and the Skynet was more robust. 12z was late on sv so just saw it.

I do think that today's 12z suite may have been the best possible outcome anyone could've hoped for if they want to see the odds of a major snowstorm increase. Every single model minus the GFS increased outcomes and generally decreased the odds of missing north or south. It's pretty rare to see something like that happen.

Never even considered that a risk

Better hope not a Presidents Day 2003 Deal unless you like Flooding. We were all on the warm side of that one.

From what I remember that was a concern that persisted for a bit but ultimately was solved by the time before the collapse. The main issue was that the PV went from acting as a cold source that sorta went live and let live with the storm to a crusher. You are right where the ens showed such an amazing signal for like 9 days out from the storm because of the whole period but it did consolidate before collapsing. I agree that this storm generally seems to be in a far better position. Only last thing I care about seeing before all systems go for a substantial (not hecs) storm is that all models drop the chance of not ejecting the SW

He's leaning on the AI models which makes no damn sense.

Big takeaway from the various 12z ensembles is that any overly amped solution that would lead to mixing or a changeover seems to have diminished.

Glad I will be out of the country. Whew. Why does snow hate Upstate SC so much?

Roxboro, once again. They are the NC snow capital, outside of the mountains.

With all this movement, I'm sensing the possibility of a coup this weekend...

With ratios the entire 95 corridor gets 50+ inches lol .

Stellantis really needs to lower their jeep prices this week.

Suspect the ratios if it happens would indeed be high so the Kuchy maps may be more accurate....

That was the 0Z Euro he was agreeing to.

I said it was tongue in cheek. Lol-I don't know you so I didn't know you were this easily offended. Have a good day -I will be more careful with your feelings from now on.

Yea lol. Amazing what a friendly pac does huh..

Yeah model runs have been to consistent really at some point we’re going to see a change. Just hope it’s a good one for us. .

This is the most encouraging aspect of this to me: that the evolution of this system is much more straightforward and with fewer moving parts than is "typical" for a big MA snowstorm. Range of possible outcomes still on the table, but as these things go, the key pieces are clear. Figuring out the details of the southern energy ejection and when/if/how much it interacts with the northern stream will obviously tell the tale of where the biggest impact is, but we aren't counting so much on a precisely timed phase with a vort dropping in from western Canada - this is a long-track system with a surge of moisture into a cold antecedent airmass.

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential continues for possibly significant winter storm this weekend, followed by extremely cold conditions next week. A potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some upslope snow showers are possible with each front. Extremely cold temperatures are becoming likely Sunday night into next week, with lows in the single digits and wind chills at or below zero. Near- record low temperatures are possible. The latest 12Z guidance today continues to show the possibility of a significant winter storm across our area this weekend. One noted trend is that precip onset is a bit later, with the heaviest precip over the area now occurring Saturday night through sometime Sunday afternoon. Additionally, the probabilities for freezing rain have dropped to almost zero, mainly due to the strong Arctic high to the north ushering in very cold temps at the surface and aloft. As a result, the NBM 48-hour probability for at least 6 inches of snow are at 40-60pct, and around 20-30pct for 1 foot of snow. One big thing to note is that there could be a sharp QPF gradient on the north side of the system, with that sharp cutoff possibly setting up somewhere over our area. This would result in lower snow totals along the MD/PA border, with increasing totals to the south. The upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Models seem to be in at least good agreement regarding the development of a low pressure system that tracks across the southern U.S. A broad area of baroclinic/frontogenetic forcing will develop along the interaction of the Arctic high to the north and deepening low. Ensemble guidance continues to show an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The surface low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend. Depending on where the frontal zone is and where the area of low pressure tracks, there could be significant wintry precipitation this weekend over a large part of the South to Mid-Atlantic CONUS. The potential is still there for that strong Arctic high pressure to suppress the low pressure system to our south. However, the strengthening upstream blocking pattern could essentially put a floor on how far south the low will track. It is important to monitor this threat closely this week as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs. &&

That’s too far West. January 96’ was over the TN valley. PD2 was a bit further North but the trough was similar. It’s really more about where the trough axis is. You essentially have a southern stream vort that’s acting like a speeding car running into a brick wall which is the dome of very cold and dry air. Sometimes it ends up too far South like 2010 because the NAO block is too strong. The MJO is entering phase 8 and propagating towards phase 1 so I’m really not surprised by all theses threats showing up. The PV is stretching and coming South so there will be a few week window for major storms until it retracts and the pattern breaks down at the end of February. Until then it should be open season for awhile. This is the best pattern we’ve had in years.

cliff notes/summary please?

Only mid range OP model that did well was the Canadian. It pretty consistently was getting advisory type snowfalls across most of SNE/CNE.

Perhaps the sfc low deepened a bit more than expected or the more solid NNE gradient occurred earlier as the storm pulled away. Given the borderline BL temps and no high pressure to the N, small changes to things can make a big difference locally for sensible wx like snowfall. Non-standard setups can do odd things, and the unexpected, esp. b/c we don't have many or any past events to reference. And take note how wishy-washy both the global and meso models were leading up to this event, so that suggests a non-standard setup/pattern that the models struggle w/. Just re-enforces how weird this snow season has been. But what *should* matter to CoastalWx is the end results. But noooo, he probably pines still for the Bliz of '05 all over again!

feels funny to say it but after the recent run i'm kinda over 'em been there done that at this point, def not worth an arctic expedition tonight