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Nice - I was waiting for the update, they seemed all-in on the previous AFD as well (unusual for them.)

Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary

Wont lie I'm still worried about that jog north and the warm air aloft being too strong. Really don't want an Ice storm after getting the possibility of a foot of snow. snow>ice anytime

Doesn't need to be a traditional coastal. Sometimes those can work against you if you have warmer air aloft lowering the DGZ if the storm track starts coming too close. Also very high winds are not helpful and knock down snow and prevent it from stacking up nice. A lot of these crazy 20-30:1 storms are usually light wind events not blizzards. All you need is good lift inside the DGZ to produce high ratio stuff, doesnt have to be a coastal. Strong H7 FGEN and super tall DGZ and boom you got some large dendrites coming down. Conversely cold =/ high ratios, for example if a lot of the lift is occurring outside the dendritic growth zone.

Snow starts in like 80 hours, chief!

<Chuck> 22.5Z SREFS ARE AMPED AS PHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAUCK

Bring us home Big Nacho

follow my instagram page for the next snowmap @nycweathernow

I know I'm an old guy but just want to remind y'all that this storm is 3 days away. Lots can and will change in the next 48 hours.

its not as fun though

It's going to be a disaster in here once the northern stream gets properly sampled and we go to the suppressed look from early yesterday.

I'd rather have no snow at all than a 10" Noreaster. There's a curve where below 2" of snow sucks for obvious reasons, 2-4" is nice scenery, but then there's really no difference above that until you get to the big dawgs. It's all the world of difference getting 10" vs 18"+

Good God, calm down people... everyone needs to take a 15 mintue break from here.....

I am in a bad mood deleted it my bad

If anybody wants JV PBP, your host and moderator @bncho is here to save the day!

Hello, So, just wondering. I know there is some chatter now around mixing. We aren't talking regular rain right? This would be sleet or freezing rain? I can remember some times probably 1994 when we had 15 degrees and freezing rain in northwestern skook. That was a winter to remember.

Aggressive for them. Hopefully a good sign.

the 1000mb low is not strong enough to generate the requisite wind.

Yeah also many many times models don't really do well with most valley areas that are away from the mountains like in the valley north of 40 and west of 75 those areas are often colder than modeled in these situations and don't scour out very easily, so could have longer duration of freezing precip north of 40 and west 75 up to the plateau where downslope isn't as much a factor and the surface cold air can be much more stubborn than modeling often shows. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Congrats Chicago

Best. Sledding. Ever.

Finally I can freak the fuck out! I'm scared as hell about how this evolves. We are playing with the mix line 4-5 days out and just lost our suppressive TPV off East.

I remember that 1987 storm. Lived in downtown Winston at the time. Heaviest sleet I've ever seen and it was like 18 degrees