All Activity

so last 5 runs of gfs have been rock steady, less than 25 miles jumps run to run with low position at 7pm Sunday evening.........id love to see it verify just to make DT look awful one last time before Spring

The double barrel low is wrecking havoc on the models. Its going to be interesting to see with that feature.

Nothing gets past you

While all eyes are focused on Sunday, I've got a WWA for a mixed bag of wintry precipitation tonight. Penndot is even brining some of the major roads (PA309) here in the Skook.

It's just hard to fathom the other guidance being THAT wrong. And if this is the worst performance it's gonna be a huge indictment on what has happened...I mean the GFS is gonna lose even more credibility after this if it's wrong.

Another round of rain will arrive tonight and could continue into early Saturday. Most of the region will see less than 0.50" of rain. Highs will likely reach the lower 40s through Saturday. Another storm could bring some snow to parts of the region Sunday into Monday, but there remains some uncertainty about its track and impacts. A significant or major snowstorm remains a low probability, high-impact event. Currently, the GFS is the only operational model supporting this solution. No individual EPS member shows 10" or more snowfall and just 8% have 6" or more. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +0.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.065 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (4.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°, but the forecast development of an AO+ regime could lead to a sufficiently mild outcome to result in a winter mean temperature that exceeds freezing. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

For entertainment purposes only since I believe it has a 5% chance of happening

@Mount Joy Snowman https://www.weather.gov/ctp/2009-02-03-04-Heavy-Snow

Absolutely hilarious to see the GFS show this run after run. Cave tonight at 0z will be epic.

I'm officially frustrated. I need the Euro to move by a significant amount now.

It did come east a little. Its halfway between 12z and 6z.

18z GFS not backing down. Definitely better for northern HR and RIC. Southside is bleh

Another person who is bashing the gfs . Can we see at 0z ? It has beaten the euro many times. Having the gfs ai west is nice. Icon and rgem also shifted west.

Foreplay is strong with the GFS. But can it finish, or will it think about its ex, the Euro instead?

I mean the utter hilarity of what the GFS is showing vs. everyone else is just wild. Per GFS snow literally moves in within 66-72hrs... we are essentially at 70hrs until go time and GFS blasts with 8-16in for all of SEPA while others have us with mostly 1-3in with pops of 4in .

Not sure about that. We shall see.

Jeffrey’s?

While the threat remained offshore, the EURO did have a 300 mile LP shift west between 84-96 hours out on the last coastal threat... Am I grasping at straws? Yes. USA USA USA (GFS)!

I think the GFS needs to be retired. Inexcusable to be this out of step only 3 days out

Yeah. Expectations need to be tempered but wouldn’t it be something if we could end winter with a bang.

75 people doing pbp at once.

Not a global but the rgem did this in Jan 2021 within like 36-48 hours. Maybe less. It showed about 50” of snow in Baltimore county. We got 5”

Hey it can always be a teaching tool of the perfect H5 setup!

Unfortunately the latter is usually the outcome .