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No hate on the 20z HRRR holy moly

Warrenton-Gainesville to the north into Leessburg-Fredrick

Dusting in Fleetwood thus far, snow is increasing

Can already tell this one is gonna be special here. Coming down nicely and radar looks awesome

Nowhere, because it hasn't formed yet

Can you get me a WSW in Fairfax County? We are only at an advisory. But I'd prefer they start low and go high. It usually doesn't work the other way.

Thundersnow possibilities tonight

It's awesome when Tomer lays down the knowledge. He's one of my most trusted voices in the field. I'm expecting about 10" here so I'd be shocked if the rest of you guys didn't get much more than that. I spent a few hours driving around the Catskills with some short walks and photo ops, just taking in the light snowfall, watching the clouds, feeling the breeze pick up through the afternoon. A nice antidote to all the model-watching and screen time lately

I've already had a couple vodka and cokes. That's not happening. lol

33.8°F temps crashing now from our high of 37. All snow, nothing sticking yet.

Starting to whiten my mulch a drop, I'm trying to control myself.

Temp down to 33.4. Fairly heavy snow a couple miles north of Sterling. Grass is whitening

I think you will do much better, but 18Z 3k Nam has me done by 7pm. HRRR has it going longer, but I've been burnt by that one before.

Where are you seeing it?

We running it back

sticking to all surfaces here

Well, this place is at 25% average. Or what was once the average. Based on the last 10 years the average here should be 10" and not 28". I've had efuckinnough.

Just ticked under 33 in Haymarket, let’s go one more degree!!!

Latest HRRR goes nuts with the inverted trough. Someone is getting 6" - 10" in that band.

posted again if no one put it up earlier: .DISCUSSION... -- Changed Discussion -- .KEY MESSAGE 1... A potential historic blizzard will impact the Tri-State area into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with conditions deteriorating quickly this evening into tonight. A potent upper level shortwave can be seen digging down towards the southeast coast on latest water vapor satellite imagery. Out ahead of it, surface cyclogenesis is underway and right on track off the Mid-Atlantic coast as seen in latest surface obs and even on visible satellite. While little wobbles in track/qpf trends were seen in some 12z guidance, there is still excellent agreement on this low rapidly intensifying to an impressive ~970mb central pressure before passing somewhere near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM appears to be too high. This was manually adjusted down to 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50 inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30 inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the coast. As for winds, the forecast remained the same for much of the area. Out east, for eastern LI and southern New London, confidence increased enough to bump up a few knots. There will likely be a brief period here where a 65-70kt LLJ at 950mb will aid in isolated 70 mph gusts at the surface. As a general timeline for how this will play out: Light snow will continue over the next few hours with little impact, especially because of marginal surface temperatures. However, conditions rapidly deteriorate this evening into tonight, with heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility expected by around 7pm. Through the night, winds will continue to increase as heavy snow bands work through the area. White out conditions are expected during this time resulting in traveling becoming dangerous, if not impossible. Given latest hi res/HREF guidance and model time heights of impressive lift in the DGZ, snowfall rates in the heaviest bands will likely be 2 inches per hour for the coast and 1-2 inches per hours inland. Brief rates of 3 inches in one hour is not out of the question. Conditions start to gradually improve Monday afternoon although winds remain gusty. Even if we do dry out a bit earlier than forecast, blowing snow could be an issue into Monday afternoon. Have continued to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast but it can not be completely ruled out along the coast late tonight into early Monday morning. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds today into tonight could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 3... As a clipper low passes to the north on Wednesday, an associated warm front should bring some light snow and rain on Wed. Accumulations should be on the light side, ranging from less than an inch across Long Island, to around an inch in NYC and along the CT coastline, to 1-2 inches north/west of there. A stronger low moving from the OH valley to the lower Great Lakes on Thu could bring more wintry precip. NBM thermal profiles were mainly supportive of snow and/or rain, while blend of 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF thermal profiles shows temps warming aloft and are more in favor of light snow changing to a wintry mix inland, and rain in the NYC metro area and along the coast. Any snow/ice amts should be light, no more than an inch or two of snow most places and a light glaze of ice inland NW of NYC. Either way advisories could be needed for parts of the interior north/west of I-287 in NJ/NY and along the I-84 corridor in CT. High temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for gradual snow melt each day, and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent re-freeze of snow melt. -- End Changed Discussion --

It took forever but it’s snowing finally. I didn’t think it would ever stop raining and switch lol. I got two hours left of my shift and I think at this rate, the roads will just be wet luckily. If you asked me yesterday at this time, I thought for sure it would be sketchy by this time.

Some mesos started to show the Lanco donut hole last evening and my eyebrows raised as I knew mesos do quite a good job when in their wheelhouse. They were correct. we have flipped in Akron. Steady light snow.

Baltimore city, says 35.4 now. Dropping quick.

36.9° Snow has just started to mix in. Severna Park