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wow these runs for MBY are giving me chills this morning.....if only this were 2 days out.....im in Eastern Northern Neck VA

Isn't that placement a little too close to the coast for all snow on the jersey shore and LI?

I believe a few weeks back someone ask something about storms trending Northwest…. I said….” storms only trend Northwest when we do not want them to” I hope I’m wrong .

Ninja'd

Spacing between systems is far enough apart that ant disturbance to Baroclinic zone would be gone.

Let's get the cmc on board

CMC looks a lot better than 0z. Low in the gulf 108, 500 looks tasty.

Agreed

So far, IMO, it's looks better than it's 0z run

CMC looks like it could be more euroish like

Make that 1 day out.

IMO no global did great. EURO AI sniffed the northern track out earlier. We rag the Euro but with the start time pushed to Sunday it jumped all at once to the more northern track 4-5 days out, obviously it was way too warm but overall after it made that jump I felt it led the way. GFS was just horrible. It held on to the more suppressed look the longest and began a painful tick north for the last 3 days. Short range, NAM nailed it. Cannot say enough about how impressive a performance from NAM this was. For this storm, looking like a miller A, I wonder if models will be better given it may be more consolidated than the mess that was the last system

CMC looking interesting at 102…biting more than 0z

yea about the same after hour 150 to 6z

12z GFS scraper for SE New England Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

It's exactly where we want it to be at this point imo. Comes together slightly too late for us but I'm encouraged that it's another model that has jumped on the idea of being an intense low off the east coast next weekend.

GFS is a coastal scraper for our subforum. The GFS being south east of the Euro at this lead time... it's been written before.

GFS running now. Let’s see if it brings the low further west. She’s always the last to the party and might need another couple of days

I can tell you, it won’t

CMC looks closer to trying to do something better than 0z

GFS shifted west. Interesting I can definitely see Hampton Roads once again getting another storm over 6 inches while Richmond continues its streak of no major snow since 2018

WeatherNext isn't available to the public yet so I really could care less at this point. I'd like to see verification scores myself. The Euro does great at the H5 pattern. Better than any other model. I guarantee you that. But as far as precipitation, thermals, and what not ALL the models have struggled severely this season.

I stream , you stream , we all scream for upstream

GFS is still the furthest east but watching that NW trend.

This is exactly where I want to be on the GFS 5 days out.