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There’s people all over the Weather community, in here NWS, text messages from some Mets, and LinkedIn all talking about how bad the RRFS is.

Stephens City is about to punch a hole in it. I hope it skips over and reforms just east of Stephens City and crushes everyone else.

Agree with Damaged, if you feed the grass, it will help keep the weeds at bay. I do early season and late season fertilizer applications, before the weeds start growing, and after they have more or less stopped.

RRFS is hot garbage. Most agree with that. Hopefully it continues to be evaluated.

0.38" with a nice little thunderstorm. Chilly tho with temps right around 51. 1.07" for the month so far.

Pretty nice line. Hope it holds for the rest of us.

Earrhlight BTW .. what happened to Allsnow from NJ? Any intel ?

HAIL

Certainly not worthy of any awards....that's for sure.

I agree. This past winter the new model i thought was horrendous

@Bluewave Here comes the next WWB/DWKW ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.”

Need the video with Clapton in it.

Hope this line coming doesn’t screw up the inbound fight from Chicago that we take tomorrow early am to get to Vancouver.

That a top 12 bummer for you

More is not always better. Too many models as it is, so this is good "cleaning house." They were supposed to stop the HWRF and HMON before last hurricane season, but haven't. HAFS has proven itself big time, so just move on. As I have said, having too many models that have less skill overall hang around just allows hype-masters to find the ONE model that shows "what they want to see," and run w/ that.

My new top 12 power rankings June June June July July July May May May August August December

30 days hath September, April, June, and November!

John is a long time poster here. "Rufus" seemed pretty bad in some of the winter events this season. We posted it frequently and it seemed to be on its own island (not the correct one either). But we'll see how it goes.

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition. I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS. He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally. Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out. I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

First time I seen the Models get wetter near game time.

X post is hype for attention. And bandwagon/sample size logical fallacies -- "nobody I have connected with in the community wants this to happen." So this person's connections are all encompassing and represent the *entire* wx community? That's pretty narrow-minded and arrogant. And who exactly is saying they don't like the RRFS? Vague proclamations are a red flag. This reminded me of last year when the DoD was going to stop the data dissemination of the 3 legacy DMSP polar orbiter satellite, and the TC community was up in arms b/c of the loss of the microwave data, acting like this would cripple TC forecasting. Well, there are other satellite like this other countires have we have access to, and the DoD had already launched the first in a set of replacement satellites for this legacy batch. More and more, ppl post stuff for mere engagement bait, looking for the 15 microseconds of fame. And the flip side, as if 12km NAM is great? It hasn't been tweaked in 10+ years and is often useless after 36 hr. The 3km NAM issues w/ it overdoing its QPF, esp. orographics, do we need that still? Ppl who don't understand models use this 3 km NAM flaw and run w/ it as if 50" snowfalls in SNE will happen! Getting rid of NAM and it derivatives is a good thing. These days ppl will latch onto any change and act like it is end of days. They prey on the human basic instinct to fear change. Not all change is bad by default, and sometimes you have to move on for things to advance. Yes, the RRFS has its share of issues (SPC noted it has problems w/ the BL for convection), but what model does not have it share of issues? And as we get higher and higher resolution for models and try to directly simulate directly atmospheric process, rather than emulate, the challenge here is not linear. RRFS been in test and evaluation mode for some time, and available for all to see, so it not just like cold turkey, The HRRR will be run in tandem likely for some time (look at how long the NAM has stuck around).

Looks like the final risk for frost is Friday morning with lows in the upper 30s in NE TN and SW VA. Point and click forecasts are a little warmer than current modeling. Beware. After that, temps warm rapidly and temporarily back to late summer levels this weekend.

Heck yeah, I got nearly .3” already here at home. Let’s see what the main line can deliver this evening. Hoping some others cash in.