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It drops 50-75" of snow in portions of West VA, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Not sure I have ever seen a run in the East which is that big.

That would be great--I'm not seeing it that way.

Wilton?

It would make a lot of sense if the pattern was about to break for warm...for that blizzard to show in exactly that spot. The GFS has held to that since yesterday. I would encourage everyone to not get their hopes up. I actually don't like tracking Christmas systems since so many get their hopes up. But I really want to see the GFS hit this from day 16. Also, do remember that systems are often lost between d5-7. Let's get that out of the way now. LOL.

18z GFS long range eye candy says Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night .

1040 and slightly west of yesterday’s 1035

Amazing the difference over 2-3 miles. We have the nice fluffy flakes though.

Still snowing here. I'll go with 3.5" for me. Might have hit 4 but the early compaction is what it is and I'm conservative with my measurements. Still snowing so maybe 4" is in the cards. This was such an awesome event. Snowed continuously from 7:30am past sunset. Cold north wind and dropping temps all day. Snow blowing off the eaves and trees. Dark grey sky when it did lighten up at times. True deep winter vibe and that doesn't come easy down this way. Very thankful for the good luck even though my friends north of me couldn't share this one. Tables will turn soon enough and I'll be on the outside looking in lol. I'm pretty satisfied for a while.

Now that’s fun: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025120818&fh=354 This is Sunday: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025120818&fh=138

OK, so let's skip over the next 5-6 days and go right to the monster Christmas Eve winter storm. Isn't 'perfect' but that is plenty close enough for me. Only need it to hold for about 60 more runs. 42 straight hours of wintry precip:

Looks like shut off edit: still got some dust flying around

And the 18z GFS has a doozy leading up to Christmas for parts of NC. TW

Yes. It was 49/47 so it did not feel or smell anything like snow. We are rolling now though. Great start to the winter. Just took a quick peek outside and it is accumulating now. Coating on the cars and grass.

It's in la-la land sure, but yeah looks like a big (and quite cold) sleet/ice event mainly in the I-95 corridor around DC/Balt, with a snowstorm to the west and north! Mid-20s and ice? That would qualify as a @Bob Chill "glaciation" scenario! I say bring it!

yea, one heck of a storm. 30” in the jack zones, messy fun in the metros. But then again it’s the most normal winter GFS run, so

Yeah at some point this cold air will have to ease up. Very few winters have almost wall to wall cold. And in this climate, it’s nearly impossible. All the more reason to capitalize on the cold now and get some snow

Good points. But if there were a clearly identified long time model bias, adjusting for that would obviously make sense.

Chasing snow might be the only option left. At least until the nor’easter at the end of the gfs run.

HRRR indicating a heavier band will pivot thru SE VA between 8-9pm

That is a blizzard. Wow. It will assuredly change, but the 18z has a full fledged blizzard after 300.

I am surprised nobody posted the 18Z GFS at 360

Hmmm ok still puzzled why it was clouds all weekend then.

All kidding aside, that’s a high stakes pattern toward Xmas. Decent trends today of sinking that gradient south so maybe we can actually get a good winter threat near Xmas instead of flamingos and parrots flying overhead.

Temp has been frozen at 31.5 degrees for a few hours now. Perfect snow temp.

Still snowing and 20°. About 4 1/2 inches so far, although hard to measure with the gusts today.