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heading to VT next week for camping with the kids, weather looking good !

Thanks for posting about this perspective about borealization, which presents it as a net negative. Modeling the potential myriad of effects of continued GW for the globe as a whole remains a highly complex and thus difficult endeavor. Thus having good discussions on these topics is beneficial.

My lawn was decimated after those 2 dry summers-we re-seeded last fall....looks incredible today lol with all the rain

Yeah the 6z GFS showed this at the end of the run, highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the mid-lower 50s Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

The expansion of the boreal forests into the tundra raises another set of issues. https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/boreal-trees-are-spreading-into-the-arctic-tundra-405025 In an increasingly warmer world, the Arctic tundra is becoming more forestlike. This process, known as borealization, is particularly widespread in Eurasia and in Arctic mountain regions, where the distance to the boreal (northern) forest is shorter. Many species of grasses and shrubs that can live in both the tundra and the forest are gaining ground in the tundra. This is shown by a new large-scale study of 1,100 sampling sites across the entire Arctic biome. Consequences “If this trend continues, it could have a number of consequences. For example, it could accelerate the melting of the permafrost or change the seasonal migration of reindeer. It could also affect the traditional livelihoods of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic, who rely on hunting, reindeer herding, and gathering plants as a part of their subsistence and cultural practice,” says Robert Björk, a researcher on Arctic ecosystems at the University of Gothenburg. When shrubs and other tree-like species expand, they trap more snow in winter and cover the ground in summer. This changes the ground temperature and can accelerate the thawing of the permafrost. As a result, large amounts of carbon that have been frozen for thousands of years could be released, contributing to global warming.

A small area of +10C is starting to develop in the subsurface

2.04" here yesterday with high temp of 87°.

Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America. Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer. This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper.

I’m referring to the increase in boreal forests and the overall increased green areas of the globe as being a positive spect of CC, not the increased fires themselves.

WB 6Z EURO thru Wed.

For me this was the most impressive drought I've seen. Two years with deficits of around 15" so a 30" deficit in total since 9/24. Much better lately of course .

Southern hemisphere appears to be better synced with the el nino, though. Not perfectly, but close. Troughs and ridges look to be approximately in the same places, albeit slightly off. S Pac looks like split flow, aiding those record snows in the Chilean Andes.

The issue at hand is the expansion of wildfires in the boreal and other forests. Places like Canada have seen both national and regional record fire activity increase due to the warmer and drier conditions. The recent record fire in Ontario produced the record smoke from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. I don’t count that as a positive.

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño.

AND What?! Are wildfires getting worse, or is the situation getting better? What can we expect going forward - more burn area globally as a result of a warming planet, or lessin concert with the present trend? This post wades into this apparent paradox and reasserts the idea that both the present and the future of wildfire burn area is highly linked to anthropogenic climate change. Yes, global burn area is declining, but it’s uneven regionally Globally, burn area from fires is indeed showing a robust declining trend over the last two decades. Some regions, however, have seen a pronounced increase over this period (especially boreal forest ecosystems). The longer term trends, as shown in the figure below, vary substantially from one model and dataset to the next, but generally speaking the story is that northern remote areas (especially boreal forest ecosystems and northern peatlands) are seeing an increase in recent decades, and tropical areas - especially in Africa’s savannah areas - have seen a decrease. Why is this happening? The specifics are complex, but the general explanation can be found in major expansions in agricultural development in Africa, which have helped drive “significant declines [in burn area] in African savannahs… despite significant increases in fire weather, and especially extreme fire weather, in the region.” This is, after all, savannah-grasslands account for more than half of global burn area, and so a significant reduction in that biome has a pronounced effect on the global totals. “Satellite data tracking shows that Earth's boreal forests have expanded in total area by about 12% (roughly 0.844 million square kilometers) and shifted northward as a result of warming temperatures.” https://science.nasa.gov/missions/landsat/boreal-forests-are-shifting-north/ This is a positive result from CC. Not all results of CC are bad. The overall greening of the globe is obviously a good thing even though it can also lead to increased wildfires due to increased potential fuel. And this being a carbon sink is helpful. The positive effects of CC are often minimized and thus there should be a more balanced presentation of its overall effects even if the net overall effect isn’t positive, which is where I’ve been leaning largely because of my concern about rising sea levels. Of course the future rate of sea level rise is a huge unknown and nobody knows how bad it actually will get.

Tomorrow looks like a good shot at storms. I wasn't expecting the front to clear the area this week. It's beautiful out there today. Late yesterday it got nice when the breeze picked up. I was expecting drippy, humid, thundery afternoons every day this week.

Length of daylight today: 14:22:28 End of the month: 13:12:28 Over 2 minutes a day lost between now and the Equinox, in the next two weeks we all going to notice quick. Last 8pm sunset is the 9th, last pre-6am sunrise is the 18th. One month from today (Sept.4th) is the last day with more than 13hrs of daylight.

That’s the link I’ve been going to also. That’s because whenever I google NOAA PDO or PDO NOAA, it takes me there. (I don’t have it saved as a bookmark.) But the server has been N/A much of the time since yesterday for some reason.

This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

I had a bit less but given what surrounded you, that’s Steintastic.

Rain chances tomorrow through Saturday?

Looks like Rodriguez is taking the mound this evening for the Angels. Too bad Ward was just moved.

57 degrees this morning.