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@Sey-Mour SnowPlease don't Sey Mour heartache and wasted time.

Not so fast my friend as Lee Corso used to say, as the Euro jumps back NW quite a ways....

It is Wednesday and things are still on the table. 5-6 days out.

Not the bomb from 24 hrs ago, but nice improvement on the AIFS from 0Z. Maybe we can still get a moderate snowfall from this...

31.7

Welp, a wrapped up bomb is probably out the window. Excellent job by the euro OP to never give in. On the other hand, there is still room to get a respectable event out of this, especially closer to the coast you get. The 6z rgem sharpened the trough a lot vs 00z. Nice improvements on 6z euro and Ai. Gotta make some baby steps. I really want to see more improvements on today’s runs.

It’s always something. Some turd always in the punch bowl.

Weird output but it’s a start

I don't entirely agree because I referenced the 06z and 12z European sites from yesterday, which also had the confluence and did not have a big NE US impact.

Euro has snow again

I agree that the models still have a lot to sort out. The 84 hr. NAM that you mentioned also looks completely different the the 84 hr RGEM. We need to give this another day or two to watch the trends.

Watch out for icing this AM.

We knew. This is why the tenor folks can’t have it both ways. This followed almost the exact pattern we’ve seen every phantom coastal this winter.

Temu wooden teeth has his “Don’t tread on mdecoy” shirt on today

It's not over, 6z GFS moved back NW for a clip/fringe, EURO AI a solid tic NW gets warning snow to most of ENE, EURO with a laughable amp up at 6z and way NW , fringes ENE now with a monster..

The lack of posts in here should be telling

Unfortunately most models went the wrong way at 0z for the Sunday chance. The 6z AI Euro still offers some hope for a moderate event chance.

There’s a lot of energy pieces in the 500mb flow to sort out. It looks like the main piece is phasing in later on guidance now, firing the coastal more offshore. That deep 500mb shortwave still passes over us, so could still have some lighter snow in that scenario. One thing that I saw hints of in various intensity across the overnight op guidance is presence of an NORLUN/inverted trough type feature… something that just occurred in New England a week ago. That’d be a more localized thing, and probably something hard to nail down the exact location of. 6z GFS had the feature a good bit further west vs 0z GFS, for instance. Then there’s the 84 hr 6z NAM with the wave coming through a full 24 hours early, full disclaimer on it being the 84 hr NAM. But I certainly wouldn’t say the models have a handle on this yet.

WB 6Z AI EURO

This winter reminds me of 1977 when I was an elementary school kid. Long stretch of deep cold and ice-encrusted snow cover, but rather poor on the total snowfall amount.

Thank you, I’ll bring it up to my therapist next time I see her and get back to you. Enjoy the rain

Again STFU

Dr. No Returns