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Fwiw, Eric Webb says he thinks this becomes an overrunning event. Said its January 2014 like...

I lost 52 inches of snow in 6 hours

Short rangers looking juicy, 8-12 through Fri roughly here and north, some are a little more north and just miss here with the heavier stuff. 6"+ looking likely. Wouldn't be surprised to get upgraded to a warning.

6 out of the last 7 at 990ft now

Upgraded to WSW for some areas URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1225 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 TNZ041-072-074-141800- /O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1600Z/ Cocke Smoky Mountains-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Including the cities of Gatlinburg, Elkmont, Cades Cove, and Hartford 1225 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, mainly at or above 3000 feet in elevation. Locally higher amounts of 10 inches or more are expected along the highest peaks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, and Sevier Smoky Mountains Counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

@SnowenOutThere @dailylurker moving the rain hike discussion to banter. I second this idea. We stayed somewhere near Luray in late September 2022 on a weekend that was a total washout. Took the kids out for a rain hike anyway. Can't remember where exactly. It was fantastic, stumbled across small waterfalls that clearly only exist during rainstorms. Felt like we were in the prehistoric cloud forest!

Wait did everyone just ignore the light event the GFS has for the @NorthArlington101 Storm just because it isn’t 60 inches?

Yep, just make sure you check to make sure there’s no CAPE or thunderstorm potential. Oh and always approach from the top as I tried going bottom up once and the bridge was washed out

WTTTE

BOS perhaps gets near 50F with 40's elsewhere...but temperatures start dropping west-to-east through the afternoon...probably see squalls along the leading edge of the colder air

Memories of this classic:

47° here. I remember last week people were saying one day mild up.

I like big cold…I just worry about my birds and plants. There’s just something about going out in a calm -20° or colder airmass and breathing it in. 0°F is cold, but when you push -30 it’s on another level.

to be clear, i’m not hating on the lead up… few to none got that right. i’m hating on the in the moment.

The persistent +WPO portion has obviously started to shift already, and the behavior of the MJO will eventually follow suite.....but that is lagging, which is at least part of the reason why we still have a dearth of large east coast storms despite a N Pac more conducive to cold...also some plane bad luck, I'm sure.

It’s the extreme range NAM but it was very similar to the 6z Euro. Looked like it was about to go boom if it went out 6 more hours.

40/34 We torch since the 6th scattered snow cover gone today.

I don’t think anyone had DD from that airmass in SNE. Wasn’t it really windy? I remember ORH doing -10° or something in that. DD is basically the frozen form of fog…a cirrus cloud at the sfc.

I've refrained from chiming in lately but the fact is you have to play the hand you're dealt. If we had super snowy and warm we'd be skiing. If we had early Jan 2007 we'd be out taking walks. Of those who complain most bitterly I'm not sure they've ever posted evidence of going outside in the winter in any conditions. The south beckons.

That's pretty wild. Looks like a total of only 6 out of 34 happened earlier than January 15.

Nah 50-55

Why? Just because in some areas it went from 50 inches to 3 inches in a six hour period? It's trying to give you every option possible. Maybe the 12 Z will show a heat wave today just to open up all possibilities.

Do you understand why the change happened and why it has happened in the past many times ?

We are ready.

If Raleigh gets a 6” storm this year I promise we’ll send everything else your way the rest of the the season