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Font forget 2003

I'm not seeing any of the mesos do that....and other than 00z, it was basically noise, yet it was still shaving QPF...I don't buy that because I think there will be a deformation zone west of me...makes zero sense.

Just started snowing about 10 minutes ago. Nothing crazy rate wise, but radar looks good.

they were way short of what the last mayor had for show shovelers..

Yeah all forecasts and models show tomorrow’s snow as not accumulating or mixing with rain for most of the daylight hours. Doesn’t really start until late afternoon tomorrow.

Updated

i was here in 78 83 94 96 2006 2010 2016 i seen all the big snowstorms in nyc..

yup ended up right at 8 but that first 6 came fast

So, so excited for this one. I think we’ll do quite well at home too, but I’ve seen this type of storm unfold far too many times back in my NY days to not chase up this way. Looking like ground zero for QPF

Accuweather had me at 6-10 all day while also linking to the official 20-24 inch Blizzard warning. Bit of a disparity.

Dont sweat the qpf trims from east tics.

NYC mayor said they are looking for snow shovelers. I used to make a killing when I was young doing that in the neighborhood :)

Dab+

It is going to be pushed west... when the coastal low tucks more and rakes baltimore

It sucks-no lie. I was in Boston last weekend and I definitely thought that one would edge north at the end because I wasn’t home.

Likely the SREFs, but the NBM consists of 80+ different, individual ensemble members. I'm going off memory here, but it includes 10 SREF, 30 GEFS, 50 EPS, 3kmNAM, GFS, RAP, the high-res ARW models, and maybe 1 or two different (experimental) diagnostic models. The models incorporated into the NBM are lagged by a couple cycles too so it's not ingesting the most recent simulations. Honestly, I get why people get so confused with it.

@RitualOfTheTroutNew Ken looks to be in some good squalls. Didn't think it would stick on hard surfaces right away but it has..

they been saying that all day accuweather on the radio side has gone downhill last few years that why i miss wcbs am radio sad they were closed. down..

Down to 33 in fallston

Alright here’s my one and only map for this storm. Tried my best for a blend of things. My concerns from my post earlier are still valid and noted here.

Why not?

How far east can the norlun go?

Yeah that was painful to view. I'm just completely lost at this point, can't imagine how professional Mets are feeling haha. I just got off a long call with a buddy who is a big weather guy and we have no idea how things are going to play out. Hope we aren't stuck in the middle of the two features.

32/28ºF with the initial precip on the doorstep here.

I'm looking at any daytime accumulation as a bonus - the heavier snow looks to be moving in late afternoon, and about every model has the 2M temps at or below freezing by 6 or 7 pm for most of us. This is a late pm and overnight storm as far as I can tell. Enjoy!