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Back to avg wx with frost/freeze warnings out for tomorrow morning.

https://phys.org/news/2026-09-science-strategy-transparency-anthropocene.html Mm .. honestly? There's no honesty there. Naivety perhaps, if someone believes it's just procedural contention. All that stuff about procedure mishandling, or turning phrases like "...Compromised evaluation" leading to "internal ethics report investigating these violations,.." strikes me as 'obsticularity' - i.e., blocking agenda. No, there's internal strife surrounding acceptance that human activity is causing climate change - that's what this is. According to a quick conversation with AI ... "What is the reticence and/or outright resistance toward codifying a geological epoch as the "Anthropocene" ?" "The resistance is not mainly to the claim that humans are transforming Earth. There is broad agreement on that. The dispute is over whether those changes satisfy the technical rules for a formal geological epoch, and whether a single boundary can represent such a complex, uneven process. In March 2024, the International Union of Geological Sciences approved the rejection of the proposed Anthropocene Epoch. The proposal would have placed its beginning around 1952, using plutonium fallout from nuclear-weapons testing in sediments at Crawford Lake, Ontario, as the “golden spike”—a precisely defined physical marker for a boundary in the geological time scale. The Anthropocene therefore remains widely used, but not as an official epoch." Yeaaa, riiight. The problem I have with that is the long years of experience observing the follies and vicissitudes human kind. Whenever the implications of legislation is unappealing, ... most importantly, patently true, strategy is often redrawn to attack method. But it doesn't change the facts. It is no different than lawyers getting a murderer off "on a technicality" - a fundamental flaw in the execution of Law in our free society is that procedure should somehow circumvent reality. It's used divisively. Admitting human activity has led to climate change is one thing. They won't label it as such because that means I own it, and they probably have to answer to a society in the back door conversations.

ray-nee

yeah. warm and rainy

Lose tonight and it will be the shortest Red October on record... 66F/DP 64/Cloudy

Records: Highs: EWR: 85 (1986) NYC: 88 (1927) LGA: 87 (1950) JFK: 85 (1986) Lows; EWR: 35 (1947) * very cold fall that year 1947 NYC: 36 (1947) LGA: 39 (1947) JFK: 41 (1992) Historical: 1752 - The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon Island disappeared. (David Ludlum) 1844: Through the 7th, a major hurricane swept over Jamaica, Cuba and Nassau and the Bahamas. According to early hurricane researcher William Redfield, the storm "exhibited an amount of injury and destruction such as is rarely known in the annals of commerce." 158 vessels were wrecked and 2,546 houses were destroyed along the- Cuban coast. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1890: The weather service is first identified as a civilian agency when Congress, at the request of President Benjamin Harrison, passes an act transferring the Signal Service’s meteorological responsibilities to the newly-created U.S. Weather Bureau in the Department of Agriculture. 1893 - The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum) 1893: On this day, the village of Caminadaville, Louisiana, was destroyed by a massive hurricane. Caminadaville was a vibrant fishing community in the late 19th century, located on Cheniere Caminada, adjacent to Grand Isle in coastal Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. It took five days for the news of this devastating hurricane to reach New Orleans. 1938: Grannis and Okay, Arkansas set an all-time high-temperature record for October for Arkansas with 105 degrees. 1954: On October 1st Boston, Massachusetts had a minimum temperature of 69 °F the warmest low temperature. This is also the highest minimum on Boston's records for October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1958: NASA officially begins operations on October 1st, 1958. 1976: A ridge of high pressure brought record highs to parts of the Midwest. Locations reporting their warmest October temperatures included: Hatfield, WI: 94°, Preston, MN: 92° (also latest occurrence of 90 in a year), Neillsville, WI: 92°, Caledonia, MN: 91°, and Jump River, WI: 87°. Other daily record highs included: La Crosse, WI: 92°, Des Moines, IA: 92°, Kansas City, MO: 92°, Madison, WI: 90 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1977: While an F3 tornado traveled less than one-mile through Montfort Heights or the greater Cincinnati area, it destroyed 12 homes and damaged 15 others. There were 17 injuries. 1986: Heavy rainfall totals produced saturated soil conditions across parts of Oklahoma beginning the previous day. Conditions worsened across the area when more torrential rain fell during the first four days of October. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches were common, while 15 to 20 inch amounts were reported over north-central Oklahoma. The excessive rainfall caused most major rivers in the state to flood, requiring the evacuation of about 30,000 people from 25 towns. The floods destroyed 509 homes, damaged 3,957 others, and washed out many roads and bridges, including two bridges on I-35. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90 degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie, GA, killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured one person north of Graceville, FL, and two persons at Bartow, GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1992: A strong 588 decameter heat ridge extended from the Plains to the West Coast bringing record highs. Areas reporting their warmest October temperatures included: Sheridan, WY: 92° and Billings, MT: 90°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1994: Lightning hit a bow-and-arrow deer hunter, knocking him down from his 15 feet high stand near Prosperity, PA. He survived, but experienced second degree burns along with blurred vision. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1998: Heavy rain fell across the Liberal area in Kansas for 24 hours with the heaviest rain falling during the morning and afternoon hours. Five to eight inches were reported with one unofficial report indicating 10 inches. Streets were flooded that had never flooded before. A local disaster was declared. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: A strong cold front with a Canadian blast and moisture combined to bring snow to parts of the upper Midwest. Caledonia, MN with 2 inches and La Crosse, WI with 0.3 of an inch had their earliest measurable snowfall. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006: An extended heat ridge brought record highs to parts of the Plains. Wichita, KS recorded their hottest October day ever with 97°. Other daily record highs included: Dodge City, KS: 96°-Tied, Lincoln, NE: 94°, Kansas City, MO: 94° and Sioux City, IA: 91°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History

67 / 64 cloudy. Warm next 48 hours with mid 70s - upper 70s today with the clouds, Warmest for a while tomorrow with mid 80s and perhaps a stray 90 in the hot spots with enough sun. Weekend split nice Saturday cooler / cloudy showers Sunday. Overall near normal 10/5 - 10/10 with a bit back and forth. Beyond there overall warmer.

DLH Sept mean of 59.5 is t16th warmest of 85 unique temps (PWS near old wx bureau site was 60.9). 55.8 is the midpoint temp. 3.45" of precip is 66th wettest of 142 unique amounts. 3.32" is the midpoint amount. TH co-op Sept mean of 58.7 is t22nd warmest of 71 unique temps. Midpoint temp is 57.0. 2.97" of precip is t68th wettest of 119 unique amounts. 3.30" is the midpoint amount. DLH & TH ended with a warmer Sept with near avg precip.

Sep Dep TTN: +1.1 (5.59) JFK: +1 (5.13) EWR: +0.7 (3.79) ISP: +0.5 ( 8.76) LGA: -0.4 (4.48) NYC: -0.9 (5.31)

Through 2018, just only 2005 (5th hottest at the time) and 2015 (9th hottest at the time) ranked among Texas' ten hottest Septembers on record. The monthly mark of 80.7° from 1911 stood at the top, challenged only by 1931 (80.5°). All other years were more than 0.5° or more cooler. Then, in 2019, Texas recorded a monthly average temperature of 81.5°. Four years later, that mark was eclipsed with an 81.8° average. Preliminary data suggests that 2026 smashed the 2023 record, potentially by more than 1°. Preliminary Texas September Anomalies: Numerous cities established monthly records in Texas. Some stations set new records by large margins. Brownsville registered its third warmest month on record, less than 0.1° cooler than August 2026, which ranked second. McAllen, powered by a record stretch of 100° days, which reached 70 days on September 30th, experienced its second warmest month on record. Brownsville rewrote large parts of its September record book. It even tied its all-time record high minimum temperature of 85° on September 13th and then again on September 30th. Prior to 2026, Brownsville's latest 85° minimum temperature occurred on August 6, 1896. 2026 also became the first year with two such low temperatures. Brownsville also recorded its hottest two-month and three-month periods on record: 2-Month: August-September 2026: 89.8° (old record: July-August 2023: 89.4°) 3- Month: July-September 2026: 89.3° (old record: July-September 2023: 89.1°)

The +NAO strengthened thru mid October on all the ensembles last night fwiw.

Woof. Guess I'll pack my winter gear.

Looking like first frost/freeze potential next week west of BR

If I can get one (1) rumble of thunder today that would be cool

I generally agree but you are mentioning one of the closest analog periods to the last 10 years in terms of the longwave pacific and atlantic patterns. Actually the pattern if you just look at the h5 means for the early to mid 1970s was even worse! And if you look at the numbers you'll see we have done about 15% WORSE now wrt snowfall. This trend is evident in high snowfall periods also, the last favorable period was slightly less favorable then previous ones. So our current crappy pattern cycle is the bigger issue...but mixed within that is the fact that the background state for snow is degrading also.

It’s had the hot hand…hard to bet against it currently, right?

Please, please win tonight. I have tickets to the Division Series, NLCS and World Series. I'd like to get down to at least 1 or 2 more games. I'm ready for the weekend. 80s in October are no bueno to me. But, it's to be expected, so there's that.

I ended the month at about 15mm/.65". TWN did write up about the dry streak mainly on YYZ. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/ontarios-weeks-long-dry-streak-continues-but-tropical-moisture-lurks

I think it's probably a good bet that winter will average out AN. Certainly warmer than last winter was, unfortunately. Hopefully we can time up the southern jet stream with temps "just cold enough" to bury us in white gold at some point. Also - we still have a hummingbird in our back yard!!!

AIFS says no warmth

Well this past weekends system(flow) certainly wasn’t moving fast at all. Too Many nuances and intricacies relative to any future particular system, to say definitively imo.

Even that may be in trouble in a couple hours. Not sure interpretation of the model -suggested clouds is correct, or if the models themselves are erroring too optimistic but I'd go under MOS with that satellite look in SNE.