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Apple weather in DC finally dropped from 20-24" to 14-17". Still much too high, but they're getting there.

Verbatim? Likely bad (ie. Mixy). But it's more just an observation in general. The OpEuro mirrors it's companion AIFS fairly closely. The GFS... uh... not so much. That may mean something.

OMG..not in the dreaded gray. We've arrived people. Honestly, weenie blinders off, this would be what I would go with rn.

When we start seeing 30+ amounts in spots.

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

Euro doesn’t look for off at the end of the run, maybe a late development, but it’s close .

How often so these extreme ice scenarios that the models are showing actually happen? I thought more often than not they end up being way overdone.

Won’t be much wind thankfully. No one wants that with powder

Is Thundersnow possible with this system? .

If the GFS is right, we will easily see this storm rank way up there on the NESIS scale. Below is Jan 1964 which is 8th on the list. And this storm could have an even more widespread 10"+ swath. Just something fun to think about.

The slow increase in QPF is a good sign right now too. In a lot of our higher end storms, they went from lower end “major” (like 8-14/10-15 type) on guidance into that 12-18/15-20 zone as we got inside 3 days. I agree with @Typhoon Tip that there’s sneaky potential on Monday with the lower level onshore flow being forced into the arctic dome…it’s one of those things that looks like mood snow or an additional 1-3” on guidance but then reality is 20 to 1 hooked aggregates that someone grabs an additional 7-8” on 0.37 of QPF….your snow growth zone is basically from the sfc to 700mb during that time so the lift being mostly low level doesn’t hurt as much as usual. Im still pretty ambiguous on how that will play out though. If we don’t keep the flow onshore, then it won’t be much but if we do, then things get more interesting.

If they euro is right yes… .

RIP. Central Va is done for

All about the coastal. If we can get that south by nc/va border it's game on. Gfs been showing that an the euro just moved towards that solution

Hype knob turned to far right position

9 inches of snow in Baltimore county .. I'll take it!!

Thanks for posting these. I’m really hoping the Euro freezing rain amounts will end up closer than the much wetter Icon and especially GFS. I’m extra concerned for loved ones in ATL and FAY. I’ve been giving them advice regarding preps for the worst case scenario just in case, but I’d of course love for nothing close to the worst case to happen. At 18Z ZR for ATL: GFS 1.6” (that’s actually down some but still would be worst since ‘73) Icon ~1.5” (also actually down some) Euro 0.6” (partially due to less qpf) UKMET nothing (not realistic unfortunately) So, even with GFS/Icon down some from 12Z, that’s still 2.5+ times as much as the Euro!

Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol

The good thing about this storm is its moving in a strait line which means it should be a very extrapolatable setup. If its warmer/colder aloft than expected over the ms valley, its a pretty safe bet the same thing will happen downstream.

Headlines and click bait sell... nothing is genuine in "journalism" anymore.

Is this a squall line that is for real? A dumb question but could someone be under an ice storm warning and then a few hours later under a severe storm warning?>?>

another thing I haven't seen posted.. its not going to take much wind to get a good amount of blowing snow.. this is going to be pure fluff

Yea, made a move towards GFS type solution. 00z will be interesting

Except for those no longer under development, every single model is better than it used to be. And compared to 10 years ago they are significantly better than they used to be. Personal feelings otherwise stem from various cognitive biases and being hyper focused on a localized area.

Come on, we can put it to the test! Drink till the lights go out, literally