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Just remember that a weaker SPV was also a feature with the 1997-1998 event also with an impressive area of stratospheric warmth above the Urals to Barents region. It’s the overpowering Pacific which is the main feature when east based El Niños get this strong. So it’s not uncommon to see this during super El Niño events.

Agree. Said it yesterday, El Niño aside, IMO (could be wrong of course), the other antecedent/background conditions; strong +QBO, now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere, descending solar off last year’s max, high geomag, +IOD are all hostile to SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter. Going to have to wait and see what happens. The fact that we actually have people hyping to borderline hysteria on twitter right now that strat warmings never happen during El Niños is completely laughable and asinine. But when you look at which accounts are doing it, it makes perfect sense….

I saw it on Twitter yesterday but someone was showing the analog mean strat temps during super ninos (which is only 4 examples) and the euro seasonal. Analog mean had a warming in early Feb that propagated down by March. Euro seasonal had a similar pattern but about 1 month earlier. A -AO through Feb would be pretty good for us combined with generally more favorable snow conditions for Nino Febs.

You can see on days like today when the influence of the offshore flow wanes we are right back to upper 60s to near 70° in spots.

JTWC has it at 135kt currently. I would say it should be 155kt. This has been one of the most underestimated TCs I have seen. .

Textbook truck tire

Been really good here. Not dull at all Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Warmed again this am, currently 39F

What I've bolded would work for me, as I'm not a fan of nickel and dime events that just slop up the roads with salt. I've always been a "go big or go home" guy, and as a driver I hate a dirty truck.

Nothing to be proud of son. Your could have developed a 24hr treatment/cure for blood clots or something worthwhile. Makes you wonder what took Ch6 so long? He wrote on FB today big announcement at 6pm. Some were hoping retirement...some thought he was going straight. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1EWLe2HbiM/

Called it

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino's. The last Super Nino, 23-24, had 4 separate SSW's. This one is looking barely above average lol. +QBO may be a hindrance to SSWs this cold season but since El Nino's favor warmings, they kind of cancel each other out.

This is now Invest 93L. 0Z UKMET almost gets to H strength: TROPICAL STORM 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 70.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.10.2026 0 35.0N 70.7W 1004 37 1200UTC 20.10.2026 12 35.2N 70.5W 998 40 0000UTC 21.10.2026 24 35.5N 69.8W 998 45 1200UTC 21.10.2026 36 36.2N 69.5W 995 40 0000UTC 22.10.2026 48 36.9N 69.7W 989 51 1200UTC 22.10.2026 60 38.1N 68.1W 982 52 0000UTC 23.10.2026 72 39.4N 63.9W 975 63 1200UTC 23.10.2026 84 42.8N 56.7W 975 57 0000UTC 24.10.2026 96 45.9N 51.6W 986 54 1200UTC 24.10.2026 108 46.7N 48.5W 992 45 0000UTC 25.10.2026 120 48.0N 42.4W 991 45 1200UTC 25.10.2026 132 54.1N 32.9W 980 40 0000UTC 26.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

Wavelengths are fairly uniform. Composite of our storms >6-8" has a -120dm GOA low! That's so strong of a signal I have been saying no to many major snowstorm threats on models over the last few years when there is High pressure there instead lol. The mean composite for DJFM in Super Nino's is also -120dm.. so one encompasses 4 months, the other a few days but they are equal. The Super El Nino sample is not that large. If you only plot the Gulf of Alaska low anomaly in the Winter months our temps here are right around average, below in the Southeast, and above up near the Great Lakes. +EPO is really the pattern we don't want. But the few Super Nino analogs have run very different downstream than non-ENSO analogs of low pressure in the same exact spot in the N. Pacific! I'm saying that the difference shouldn't be so great and if the pattern happens again it may match the 100 all-ENSO analogs vs 5 or so Super Nino analogs.

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino.

Crazy dry weather forecast across most modeing. The Euro AI is absolute 0 qpf for the next 15 days. The GFS at 18z had some rain but most runs of it are dry too. Dread that for this time of year. Leaves are also doing very poorly here. Hardly any color, even though we had around 1.5 inches of the Friday before the hurricane and another 2 inches almost from the hurricane. We had a few hundredths from the front that brought the frost. One of the really nice orange trees by the creek behind my house went from mostly green to mostly bare with almost no color.

Holding strong so far, heat is staying off until my house goes below 58. Hit 58 briefly Sunday morning. I'm not a "badge of honor" guy, I'm just not looking forward to these oil prices lol.