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It seems like its hard to get a handle on what’s gonna happen over the next few days. Pattern change.

Ugh.. yup. My hiking season is coming to an end until the fall. I'll do some local hiking but nothing big. The crowds are back. I enjoyed the glacier. I was the only one out for weeks.

mm.. Brian makes a good point on that. well, firstly...the whole "season's back broke" thing is both stupid, and my fault. I'm the one that first proffered that metaphor back 15 years ago. ... I remember doing so, and have regretted having done so, ever since. Because people don't use it within the restraint of objectivity; they abuse the use and/or there is no consistent definition of what that is. Mostly, whomever doesn't like the season at hand cites the back broke sentiment at least excuse to do so which isn't the purpose of that either. When I first said that years ago, it was in deference to the 'pattern of summer' breaking down. There are certain climo pattern return tendencies for each season. In august, we typically do so the first signs that it is teetering. This is sensibly revealed by not being hot(not being cold) all the time in summer or winter, respectively. What's skewing matters is CC ( also) because we are observing summer looks in Novembers, and winter looks in Mays. It's why I regret ever starting that meme saying. It's like backs are healing for more hefting. In this case of winter 2026 and what Brian's sort of intimating there, a big blocking episode was ending in mid February, and folks had March right there in their foresight by then, so it seemed just as good a time. It just so happens we tucked a historic storm in there. LOL

Nope

57 here un Hawthorne, NY

If you look at satellite, you’ll see the most perfect example of the Catoctin cloud factory. Hardly any other clouds around except along/over the Catoctin’s. Still a fair amount of sun today (cloud factory is waning), though kind of a sneaky chilly compared to yesterday. Not looking forward to tomorrow’s temps, if I’m being brutally honest. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12&dim=undefined

My St Bernard Husky mix today trying to navigate the heavy deep wet snow. From his paws to chest is 18 inches. Bottom is still icy. Always check him but he is a beast not bothered

Hey Mitch, thanks for doing that. You could go ahead and delete this post if you’d like.

WB 18Z HRRR

Don, I may have missed it, but will you please be posting an update to your winter index (the exact term is eluding me) post? Am curious to see where our area lands currently with last week's storm baked in.

It's got to be one of the fastest meltdowns ever. Snow piles are mostly what is left. WX/PT

Got a hair under 3” yesterday. It is melting very quickly today under full sun

C'mon some people were certainly referring to snow when they mentioned the back of winter being broken..winter involves more than just "cold"..

Neither the gfs or euro have an inch of snow? .

No one was talking about snow.

North of Mass Pike

North of pike

April is a hell of a lot different than February...

OK stupid question, what is NoP? Hoping it mean no Precip because still hoping to avoid rain at Jay Thursday Friday

Ah... both things can be true. 'Sides, to be fair ... it's snowed 30" in April before, when winter's back was most definitely broke. LOL

An hellacious period of weather is coming the next 10 days. Get ready

With the lack of sweeping cold fronts through early next week and subtropical ridging moving off to the Eastern US, things are already looking very interesting for a multi-day springlike (April/May) convective pattern over the state. Starting later this upcoming week to start March. Ensembles have been trending on higher rainfall amounts for the past week or so. Especially over CTX/NTX, up to 5 inches (even higher). Which is still way ahead of schedule for spring, as we've only just entered March. MJO is prog to head back into the latter phases with a new wave propagating through the Pacific in the coming week or so. Which will likely provide rainfall insurance. Esp. over Eastern half of state. Severe threat is bound to exist with this abnormal UL pattern setup with multiple, stronger shortwaves tracking through the state into next week. Especially around the 10th. Both Euro & GFS models and ensembles have also more or less, been keeping up on increasing shear values over the state. And even more persistent, steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8).

I find it fascinating how the prospect of an inch of snow would get hundreds of responses per day if this was December. But since it's March, people have mentally checked out and this barely gets any responses.

Keep in mind some of the same people said the back of winter was broken prior to much of SNE getting 18 -36 inches of snow during a span of a few days..

I live in C NH. I know my reality.