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It still looks to me like the heat ridge starts to break down just after the 20th. Models were just too quick w/ the initial look. Cosgrove(in his update) mentioned that the Lower 48 may well return to normal or even below for October. I have found the GFS a little better during shoulder season as it will spot cold fronts or cool downs earlier. Models really struggle during fall as there a lot of flux.I do agree that there is potential this could last into the 2nd or 3rd weak of October, but the pattern should run its course by the fourth week of September. Lots of ext guidance has the second half of fall with cool temps. Time will tell.

It appears we may be stuck in the 50s for much of the day. It's the first taste of fall.

wish it was here https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2099163993369633061

Quite Steamy now 78 / 72

Congrats coastal CT! 1.04” in Syosset & only 0.68” in Muttontown.

Dew of 49?

I think this is the 5th run in a row and 7th overall with a Medi-TC! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32 1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41 0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39 1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30 0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29 1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

We received 4.48" here in Clifton, highest one day total since we had 8"+ during Hurricane Ida in 2021.

Crushed. Micro kids football was fun.

1.2 for Brett already. Just bend over.

We live in the southern mid-Atlantic.

.31", no complaints from me.

Finished up with 2.25" and the sun is starting to come out. Currently 73 with dp 72.

Up to 3.4 at .84 inch an hour rate!

2.05" and still raining Another solid event, 19.28" since July 1st

Glad we missed out on those totals around here.

Looks like the focus for the heaviest rains is bumping northwest a little, favoring the northwest half of Iowa over the next week. Still may get 1"+ down this way but southern edge is trending this way.

Some breaks in the clouds. Rain over. As of 8:00 a.m. had received 1.01". Looks like maybe .30" in the gauge since then, will measure later. Glad the heavy totals stayed east. Doing fine on rain here. Don't need anything excessive.

1.61" - should clear 2" easily, and 3" may be possible

The Drake!

About the exact same here 1.17 glad to have missed the flooding.

3/4” so far. Nice gentle rain, no crazy downpours yet

Skies clearing out up to 75 / 70 here

Deluge continues here. Video doesn’t necessarily do it justice.