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45F for the low, drought continues...where was this nice weather in the spring!

Friday could be the warmest day at JFK since 8-25 since we are finally getting an offshore flow. Moderate dewpoints and steep low level lapse rates. So mid 80s are possible from the forecast soundings.

Poolesville mesonet site has recorded nearly 1" of rain in the past 24 hours, yet the 4" soil moisture values have barely moved. Plants must really be soaking things up.

Low of 57 with a very solid .53” in the gauge. Could really hear it coming down through the night at times.

43F for the overnight low here BOS at -2.2F MTD ORH up to -0.8F should be AN soon

The projected pattern for late month and early October isn’t just warmer than normal….it’s also dry as a bone. If this is correct, we will be in full fledged drought conditions in October

The GFS brings it back to life a little more on the 6z but one thing is beginning to become apparent and that is this system likely struggles until the recurve due to a combination of large size, shear, and an area of SAL it will be interacting with. To me this was a given to become a MH given modeling over the past few days. Now I am not so sure.

Nice sunrise too.

0.74" event so far

We never really know what the warmest potential is for any winter until it actually gets underway. There were no reliable forecasts prior to December 2015 suggesting the +13 and warmer than many Novembers for the Northeast. The 2016-2017 winter also gave no early model indication of how warm it would be. Same for the 2019-2020 winter. There wasn’t a seasonal forecast issued prior to December 2021 forecasting a +13 for DFW. Plus we didn’t get any indication ahead of the 2022-2023 winter from the models that there would be such a deep trough in the West. None of the models had the magnitude of the warmth for the 2023-2024 winter ahead of time. But there were indications as early as the spring and summer I was discussing ahead of time that there were warmer risks to the forecast due to how warm the WPAC was for an El Niño. But the magnitude of the warmth became extreme since we had multiple +10 months in a row. This is because nearly every winter since 2015-2016 some portion of the CONUS has experienced a +10 or warmer month. The location and magnitude of the warmth are never forecast much in advance. Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

I’m a little surprised they designated this a depression overnight. Can anyone else find a center? First visible images seem to suggest a sharp wave axis but no discernible center. Convection is also not well organized. Hmmmm

It seems quite bizarre, especially with the embedded simulated radar image from a snowstorm that almost certainly won't be equaled during any of our lifetimes in the Deep South.

Latest HREF:

We are in serious need of rain if we do not want to slide into a drought. We are sitting, 17 days into September, at 0.16” if rain for the month and going back to August 15 we have only received around 1/2” total. When I say it’s gotten dry that is an understatement! No rain in forecast either. We look likely to finish out September with under 1/2” total rainfall (possibly under 1/4”) which, including the second half of August, would leave us under 1” for the last month and a half. Not good

On and off showers rotating in from the east overnight. 0.85"

man i love this fall-ish rainy morning

Over .90” with a raw, gusty breeze. Amazing event so far. Hopefully more of the same during the day.

Preliminary scoring estimates for September 2025 Based on latest posted anomaly forecasts in previous post. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east _ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOTAL Scotty Lightning _________40 _ 70 _ 70 _180 _50 _ 70 _ 80 _200_ 380 _ 90 _90 _90 _270 __ 650 Roger Smith _____________ 50 _ 70 _ 70 _190 _40 _ 70 _ 80 _190 _ 380 _ 70 _80 _80 _230 __ 610 hudsonvalley21 __________64 _ 94 _ 96 _254 _82 _ 90 _ 94 _266_ 520 _100_100_90_290__ 810 yoda _____________________64 _ 96 _ 98 _258 _62 _ 82 _ 90 _234_ 492 _ 84 _92 _66 _242__ 734 DonSutherland1 __________66 _ 92 _ 90 _248 _62 _ 94 _ 94 _250_ 498 _ 74 _86 _56 _216__ 714 RJay _____________________68 _ 88 _ 88 _244 _60 _100 _ 88 _248_ 492_ 70 _80 _76 _226__ 718 ___ Normal ______________ 70 _ 90 _ 90 _250 _70 _100 _ 90 _260_ 510 _ 90 _80 _80 _250__ 760 wxallannj _________________74 _ 98 _ 96 _268 _86 _ 96 _100_ 282_ 550_ 90 _90 _70 _250__ 800 ___ Consensus __________ 74 _ 96 _ 96 _266 _82 _100 _ 92 _274 _540 _ 90 _92 _82 _264__804 so_whats_happening _____76 _ 90 _ 86 _252 _64 _ 90 _ 80 _234 _486_ 86 _92 _94 _272 __758 Tom ______________________ 88 _ 86 _ 88 _262_100 _ 84 _88_ 272 _534 _80 _92 _84 _256 __790 BKViking _________________ 92 _ 68 _ 74 _234 _84 _ 90 _ 82 _256 _490 _90 _84 _88 _256 __746 RodneyS _________________ 84 _ 92 _ 94 _270 _86 _ 54 _ 92 _230 _500 _96 _90 _84 _270 __770 wxdude64 _______________ 80 _ 78 _ 88 _246 _78 _ 84 _100 _262 _508 _78 _94 _82 _254 __762 StormchaserChuck1 ______78 _ 70 _ 78 _226 _60 _ 84 _ 88 _ 232 _458 _100_88_60 _248 __706 ============ ___ Persistence ___________58 _ 64 _ 68 _190 _80 _ 60 _ 76 _216 _406 _ 92 _44 _92 _226 __632 ________________________ EXTREME FORECASTS At this point, no estimates would qualify for an extreme forecast award. This is a rare if not unique situation (that could change). Scoring is quite high and several are flirting with record high scores. Again, this could shift if the estimates are not very accurate. ==================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________

It might be hard to sustain a +PNA this Winter.

Picked up .3" this afternoon and evening from a couple rounds of showers. Been a pretty nice mid August to mid September.

Check this out folks: 0Z GFS is much weaker with strongest at 1005 mb/barely a TS followed by it weakening and then dissipating over open water of the SW Atlantic into nothing! The prior 13 runs all had hurricanes, usually MH! What the? ————— 0Z UKMET: passes just E of Bermuda (similar to 0Z Euro): TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 17.09.2025 0 14.4N 43.9W 1010 28 1200UTC 17.09.2025 12 16.9N 45.4W 1009 33 0000UTC 18.09.2025 24 19.5N 48.0W 1009 41 1200UTC 18.09.2025 36 20.7N 50.6W 1008 37 0000UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 53.3W 1008 31 1200UTC 19.09.2025 60 21.7N 55.6W 1009 27 0000UTC 20.09.2025 72 22.0N 57.6W 1010 26 1200UTC 20.09.2025 84 23.3N 59.0W 1010 30 0000UTC 21.09.2025 96 24.8N 60.2W 1010 29 1200UTC 21.09.2025 108 26.2N 60.8W 1010 32 0000UTC 22.09.2025 120 27.5N 61.9W 1009 37 1200UTC 22.09.2025 132 29.2N 63.5W 1010 37 0000UTC 23.09.2025 144 31.1N 63.5W 1010 34 1200UTC 23.09.2025 156 33.1N 62.8W 1010 33 0000UTC 24.09.2025 168 34.0N 59.7W 1009 30

It def had some subtropical characteristics near “landfall” but I think it fell short. Either way, the NHC wasn’t going to designate that after hesitating on a couple bona fide TCs already this year.

AAM says solid La Niña like for next month: @snowman19

Very much agree. Be nice to see today’s radar later on.

I can go 65/45 before need heat. I get good winter sunshine with bay window and other well situated big ones. With full sun can get enough radiant to do 60/40