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Quick downpour in Holyoke..

Just got home and checked my rain gauge -2.55"!

<<< July daily records for NYC 1869-2024 >>> (I know, trees, shade, blah blah) Notes: temps in brackets with low mins are that day's max if it wasn't the daily low max. 2d highest rainfalls are previous day and day reported ... July 1 would include June 30. if marked * are only observed on day (example 2.80" July 3, 1930, July 2 was dry). if marked ** were only from previous day, reporting day was dry (example 3.13" on July 7, 1884 provided 2d record July 7-8). DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ notes Jul 01 ___100 1901 ____ 79 2018 _______ 70 1869,71,88 _52 1943 (74) ______2.17 1933 ___ 3.71 1984 Jul 02 ___100 1901,66 _ 82 1901 _______ 67 1891 _____ 56 1888, 2011 ____1.79 1914 ___ 2.41 1914 Jul 03 ___103 1966 ____ 82 2002 _______64 1870,1914 __54 1933 (65) ______2.80 1930 ___ 2.80 1930* Jul 04 ___102 1949 ____ 81 2002 _______ 62 1978 _____55 1986 (77) ______ 1.76 1981 ___ 3.19 1967 (2.08+1.11) 2.91" 2d 1978 Jul 05 ___101 1999 ____ 82 1999 _______ 62 1882 _____ 53 1979 (69) ______ 3.07 1901 ___ 3.07 1901* Jul 06 ___103 2010 ____ 83 1999 _______ 61 1956 _____ 54 1979 (78) ______ 1.97 1896 ___ 4.33 1901 Jul 07 ___100 2010 ____ 84 1908 _______71 1914,43,87 _56 1914 __________ 3.13 1984 ___ 3.14 1984 Jul 08 ___100 1993 ____ 80 1993 _______ 66 2005 ____ 56 1894 (67) ______ 2.27 2021 ___ 3.13 1984** Jul 09 ___106 1936 ____80 1981^_______ 63 1964 _____54 1963 (78) ______ 2.06 2021 ___ 4.33 2021 Jul 10 ___102 1936,93__80 1993 _______ 65 1917 _____ 55 1890 (70) ______ 2.54 2020 ___ 2.33 2021__(2.32 1997) Jul 11 ___ 98 1988 _____ 79 1988 _______ 64 1914 _____ 57 1893, 98 _______ 1.94 1940 ___ 3.30 2020 __ 2.72" 2d 1874 (1.94+0.78) Jul 12 ___ 99 1966 ____ 79 1905 _______ 67 1990 _____ 57 1926 ___________ 2.68 1937 ___ 3.09 1937 Jul 13 ___101 1966 ____ 79 1876 _______ 67 1964 _____ 54 1888 (70) _____ 3.16 1972 ___ 3.16 1972* __ 2.83" 2d 1897 (0.54+2.29) Jul 14 ___100 1954 ____ 78 1952 _______ 73 2017^____ 58 1877,88,1926 __ 1.47 1908 ___ 3.16 1972** Jul 15 ___102 1995 ____ 84 1995 _______ 67 1926 _____57 1930 (78) 14th __ 1.80 1975 ___ 1.98 1975 tied 1.98 2000 (0.59+1.39) Jul 16 ___ 99 1980 ____ 80 1952 _______ 70 1933 _____ 56 1926, 46 _______ 1.50 1871 ___ 2.16 1926 (0.78+1.38) Jul 17 ___100 1953 ____ 82 1870 _______ 72 1992 _____57 1892 (76) ______ 3.13 1995 ___ 3.16 1995 __ 2.91 1877 Jul 18 ___101 1953 ____ 81 1900,2013 __ 66 1962 _____ 57 1925 (77) ______ 1.81 2022 ___ 3.36 1995 Jul 19 ___102 1977 ____ 83 2013 _______ 69 2000 _____57 1924 (77) 18th __ 1.82 1919 ___ 2.67 1919 Jul 20 ___101 1980 ____ 82 2015,19 ____ 69 1869 _____55 1890 (70) ______ 1.97 1889 ___ 2.77 1919 __ 2.22 1988 (0.94+1.28) Jul 21 ___104 1977 ____ 82 1980 _______ 66 1956 _____55 1890 (73) ______ 2.26 1983 ___ 2.99 1988 (1.28+1.71) Jul 22 ___104 2011 ____ 84 2011 _______ 69 1958 _____58 1871, 90 _______ 1.86 1880 ___ 2.50 1896 (1.06+1.44) Jul 23 ___100 2011 ____ 83 2011 _______70 1996^_____58 1871,90 _________ 2.41 1953 ___ 2.99 1946 __ also 2.70 1938 (0.30+2.40) Jul 24 ___ 97 1999,2010 _80 2010 _______ 67 1904 _____56 1893 (74) _____ 3.75 1997 ___3.75 1997 __ also 2.73 1938 (2.40+0.33) Jul 25 ___ 97 1999 ____ 80 1885 _______ 68 2013 _____57 1953 (79) ______ 1.64 1926 ___ 4.62 1997 __ 2.49 1975 (1.06+1.43) Jul 26 ___ 98 1940 ____ 79 1979 _______ 69 1901,2000_55 1920 (75) _____ 3.24 2000 ___ 3.24 1997*__ 2.91 1872 (1d) Jul 27 ___ 98 1940,63__78 1995 _______ 68 1897,2000_55 1920 (79) ______2.65 1889 ___ 4.37 2000 Jul 28 ___ 97 1999^____ 80 2020 _______68 1897 _____57 1903 (72 27th) _ 3.11 1913 ___ 3.11 1913*__ 3.06 1902 (1d) Jul 29 ___ 99 1949 ____ 79 1995, 2002 _ 69 1884 _____59 1914 (69 28th) _ 3.47 1980 ___ 3.47 1980* __ 3.14 1913 2d Jul 30 ___ 98 1988^____80 2002 _______ 68 1881,1914_57 1956 (75) ______ 3.56 1960 ___ 3.64 1971 (0.64+3.00) Jul 31 ___102 1933 ____ 82 1917 _______ 65 1923 _____ 57 1895, 1914 ______ 2.29 1889 ___ 3.56 1960**_ 3.13" 1971 2d ^ -- - - - - - - - - - -- trivia ... ^ min with the 1936 all-time record high max was 77. 1937 had 79 same date. Despite this, hundreds died of heat prostration in the 1936 heat wave. ^ low max tied July 14 in 1884, 1960, 1963, 2017 note 18th: 2022 replaced 2012 (1.72") ^ low max tied July 23 in 1894, 1909, 1969, 1992, 1996. ^ max for July 28 tied 1892, 1931, 1949, 1999. ^ max for July 30 tied 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988. ^ 2d rainfall July 30-31 3.00" 1918 (2.00+1.00) __________________________________________________________________

I can see how this could kind of fail around here this evening . We’ll see what happens

So if I’m seeing hundreds or more of saplings in the woods , in the leaves… we are in trouble ?

LaGuardia seems to be the outlier at only .4 degrees above normal

Skies are starting to darken by me. Mets have postponed their game for tonight, so I guess they are expecting enough rain to come thru Flushing Queens this evening. I would not mind a good thunderstorm.

Heavy rain and frequent lightning here in Brick. Not much wind and no hail.

Ended up with an additional 0.06" after the last report for a day total of 1.32" but then got another hundredth for 1.33" about 20 minutes ago. I saw a TOR was up briefly for northern Montco/southern Berksco. Currently a misty 77 with dp 76,

Mega gully washer Shouldn't last long by radar

Pretty much getting missed by everything. Need rain desperately. Only had 1.19" in all of June. Temp did drop 11F down to 82F from the gust front, though.

CFS has been showing a similar -epo/+pna pattern for months now. Progressive flow kinda similar to the 2013-15 winters. Bootleg -AO at best on the plots but who knows anymore. Volatility rules the roost lately and long range hasn't done well for years. My personal algorithm says odds favor a -AO more than the other way around. No reason to be down on our chances. All seasonal guidance has an OK pac DJF. At least the epo/pna as shown can deliver continental cold in the east. My gut says winter won't be 3 month cruise on the failboat fwiw

These developments provide good examples of how the dense foliage has changed the relationship of Central Park relative to the City's other locations and Newark. The problem is cited in the NOAA's inventory of stations. Unfortunately, the problem is not addressed. Thus, Central Park becomes less representative of the City's actual climate and, instead, an experiment that demonstrates the cooling impact of trees.

Just got news that the college the youngest Ms. J attends got hit last night by a really bad storm. Her campus is known for its beautiful landscape and to see all the big old trees downed is so sad. No damage to any buildings and no injuries. Other people in Carlisle are showing damage that they got as well. Flooding as well around town. Dickinson Storm Damage 06/30/25

Wow! What an afternoon. I was working in Ellicott City. I was washing a large house. I got nailed with a storm around 1. I just kept washing. Then on my way home I got raked on 32 by NSA. Back here in low lowlands were getting waves of thunderstorms. It looks like a very stormy evening for the 95 corridor.

Mature trees produce 100k's of seed in a good year. Only takes one making it into the main crown canopy to sustain the species.

It would be similar because I tend to post estimated scoring around the 20th then open the thread for new forecasts, edit the scoring ... but it's not that difficult to find the scoring posts, they are usually before the first forecasts for the current month. I'll go back to the old system (this is the only year I have done it this way) if we keep going into 2026. By the way, all scoring is updated, NYC has "missing" for 30th in CF6, but Don posted on NYC forum that the anomaly was +1.2 and that seems to fit the 1.0 to 29th and daily departure on 30th climate report of +5 ... if I see anything different in days ahead assuming they update that CF6, I will edit the scoring. This was one of the highest scoring months in a while, everyone broke 600 (even Normal and Persistence). Tom with 788 probably has a new p.b., I track that in the Dec 2024 thread at present and haven't gone in there to update yet. That will all migrate to Dec 2025 eventually. The highest score ever in 12 years of contests has been 810. I think several in the contest would have broken that using my ORD forecast (or if I used all eight of yours except ORD). Probably what will make it easier for people in general will be if I migrate scoring tables to end of new forecasts (they are already at beginning of new forecasts). I will do that but I don't think it's that hard to find them, they are generally a lot uglier than the rest of the thread!

so far here in 21057 pretty have stayed between lines... a whopping .02 and doesn't look impressive to my west either.

just need tomorrow and heat wave #2's in the books

this would get more traction in the Philly subforum. We cut off hard at the M-D line in here, only a handful of regular posters north of that

Matches PWSs in my neighborhood

Interesting that these are so recent, namely 5/22/2021 and 6/17/2022 94 at JFK on both days and 88-89 at Central Park

Interesting sky here however virtually no lightning. Tornado warned storm is just south of Allentown currently.

Storm E of ASH looking good but tiny, I'm watching it from my porch. Little overshooting top on it