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Anyway-anything else to track after this? Serious question.

EURO AI this morning a nothing burger

10 so far in Fallston - but sometimes drops a few degrees from here oddly.

I’m hugging the GFS (yes I’m stupid ). Hoping SOMD can get skimmed in Beach Blizzard III; we managed a WSW for I and II in 2017 and 2018.

They are real and they are spectacular.

Question is was the GFS suite an overcorrection? It was the furthest off shore for days. The GFS is notorious for being an extreme south/east outlier, then it overcorrects for a few runs, then finally joins consensus after that. Horrific model

Ensembles look good on the gfs

I guess you get a double 970 low if the model can't justify a 950 center in between them. To justify that would require that the 522 dm upper low become a 510 or 504 type of center. Then it explodes in that extreme baroclinic zone.

Natty Blend. Damn.

I think we need the h5 to close off and not be neutral but negative to hit dc to Boston. Just not gonna get there. This has happened in the past where cape May got 2 feet and Philly got nothing. So close. This one is gonna sting .

Salt shortages everywhere. Same as last season. Not sure why. Won’t be long rivers will freeze up and can’t get shipments down river.

I just think within that ENS spread we would see some serious eye candy on OPs(well we did have that on the Canadian yesterday) I dunno, I just don’t like the double barrel low look as of late

GEFS are great!

Looking at the 6z icon it did appear to come back west quite a bit compared to 0z.

6z euro AI looks a few ticks better at 5H. Goes neutral a little earlier and negative a little further SW

Gefs looks great

Why is it odd ? Its still 5 days out.

It all depends on how much the surface low deepens off the coast. Anything sub 990 it’ll tuck and hug the coast. All of these sub 990/980 SLP going out to sea are hogwash. My concern is how strong the HP west of it is, along with the HP in Quebec might be nudging it OTS

No one does, but this last storm showed big hits lots of snow for the area. Once data start getting injested things changed from big snows to a lot of sleet and freezing rain. What did the models for this storm? Something this far out big hits of snow and now moving to more ENE. Just my observation

The RIC is definitely again right on the line of a Major hit & a complete miss.. I was hoping that these early morning models would clarify this all more but it looks like it’s going to take until at least this little clipper goes through tomorrow for the models to come into more of agreement…

WB 6Z EURO AI no change.

With almost all ENS leaning west with some really tucked and strong SLP’s even more west. It’s odd to me that every OP is skirting this off the coast and exit stage right.

Thank you and yep about to go to the dealer for when they open.

Yes

Yep, the same low 100 miles east of Nantucket instead of 100 miles east of s DMV would give e MA what this model run gives Norfolk (30" snow). A track up towards Long Island and then over the islands and cape, with those pressures and air masses, would be a BECS like 1888. Or maybe it stalls where the Bliz of 78 stalled. Of course maybe none of the above, but I think this early in the winter season a block and a right turn are not realistic, that is March into April sort of weather.