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Hurricane Schwartz just said 8-12" for 95 corridor. Says still a lot of uncertainty around where the heaviest bands will be. Low is far enough off the shore that heavy snow and wind at the shore is almost a certainty.

Plus... Forky thinks 20 to 30. That carries weight.

We’re gonna get 2-4” of snow with a back edge that forms before the precip arrives and we’re gonna like it.

That's the 10:1. You definitely need sleep.

I'm guessing Nam. But never sure which model is most accurate anymire

12z AIGFS

Mickey the models are just converging now. Relax bub it’s going to snow

There’s good fronto forcing on many models in CT for the first half of the storm, but it gets a little tougher in NW Mass…then if we get that eastern firehose going for a bit it starts becoming valley doom.

I’m not sure this area has ever seen blizzard conditions.

Doesn’t have that much to do with miller b logic here

You should read that again. You know the answer. There's a choice, E.

Updated GFS

Certainly nw nj is under tight gradient

The short range models (HRRR,RAP, 3K NAM) have extreme amounts. Am I missing any?

February 78 as well.

Miller Bs can never be trusted.

That's the big question. How many times have we seen significant shifts in the final 24 hours. If you look across the 12z suite thus far you can see a slight eastward shift, even in some of the lesser talked about models. Hope this isn't the start of the rug being pulled.

I caught, in passing, 101.5 saying 12-20 inches in some parts on NJ.

Was weaker on the NAM. Deepens to 288 on the GFS but only 291 on the NAM. This is at hour 27. edit: terminology mixup, I mean there’s a 288 line on GFS and only 291 on the NAM, so the GFS is deeper

12z gfs, that cutoff zone is inching closer to me

10-20 localized 2 feet would be a solid call for most places

Which is better and more accurate in short range, nam, GFS , hrrr, rap?

Not what we wanted to see, but still maybe a 2-4er instead of 3-6er, and there’s always the norlun possibility

Initial thoughts on what the gradient may look like in SNH and the coast based on past similar events?

This right here is the La Nina effect.