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71/64, one more dry day before the dews drop back in for a bit the upcoming Saturday seems like it will be the opposite of the preceding Saturday, which I recall had several rounds of misery mist IMBY

There's a wall of shear it will run into. I don't think this gets named at all.

I'm not sure I see/agree there's much evidence that this ENSO isn't going to heat up more.

I am on this Maryland Politics Forum and one of the threads was all these guys complaining about how awful women were and the thread author said "who even knows what these b**** C**** want... to which I replied, maybe not to be called that. 3 different guys responded calling me a f**. Did young men decide they never want sex again? WTF happened. And no that forum is not usually this toxic and the thread has now been deleted by the moderator but...jeesh

Just a quick glance it looks like the temperatures are actually lower in Manchester. Bad calibration in concord? After you're done with those standard deviations maybe you can run a comparison of actual temperatures.

Low of 62.9 this morning, my coolest morning low since June

unlikely to have anything to do with clouds or latitude, solar is widely used in Europe where it is also cloudy it might have something to do with the price of power, which was 20 cents/kwh when I went solar 10 years ago, and is closer to 30 cents now I believe. how much is it up there ? should be less since you are closer to where it is generated (Canada). it might have to do with incentives, Mass has had tax credits and cash payments for SRECs (renewable power generated) for as long as I can remember. it might have to do with politics and the resulting "news" (media) that people consume; we have right-focused friends in the next town who were absolutely blown away when we shared with them our solar journey - they could not believe that we hadn't paid an electric bill in 10 years, had recouped system costs in their entirety in the 7th year, and have a credit for excess generation that is currently north of $600. they thought solar power was a "scam". for me going solar was part economic and also an acknowledgement of the environmental damage I am doing to the planet by my consumption. using and providing excess renewable energy to my immediate neighbors is one way I can help reduce my personal impact on everyone else

Politics. Massachusetts in May had their first month ever where renewables supplied enough energy for the state.

I guess maybe for a small area...however, I feel like it may be tougher to pull with how much humidity is increased as a result of more moisture. I think higher nighttime minds may foil any attempt at a redux.

I think that’ll be very hard as climo is still climo, but at this rate it’s on the board.

For those interested in the very early accuracy of the ChescoWx model forecasts vs. the NWS - so far with a couple complete days all model runs ran cooler than the NWS Forecast and the actual verified temperatures were cooler than the NWS Forecast with ChescoWx at least over a couple full days being closer to the actuals. But it is only a couple of days so we will keep tracking. The first column is the forecast run time with the green shaded being ChescoWx and the unshaded column the NWS forecast.

For those interested in the very early accuracy of the ChescoWx model forecasts vs. the NWS - so far with a couple complete days all model runs ran cooler than the NWS Forecast and the actual verified temperatures were cooler than the NWS Forecast with ChescoWx at least over a couple full days being closer to the actuals. But it is only a couple of days so we will keep tracking. The first column is the forecast run time with the green shaded being ChescoWx and the unshaded column the NWS forecast.

HRRR gone wild tomorrow

might be another year of no hits on the US mainland

Wonder if we can eke out a year without a single Atlantic hurricane! That'd be pretty exciting.

It actually decreased from yesterday. It most likely won't develop at all thanks to the SAL & shear.

Atlantic heating up and next storm formation incresing

Said everyone about Feb 1934. Never say never.

One more great day before we see the return of some showers and maybe a t-storm tomorrow. Our ChescoWx forecast keeps us in the mid to upper 70's for highs each day through Sunday before we warm into the mid to upper 80's by both Tuesday and Wednesday next week before we cool down again by the end of next week. Some valley spots could certainly see some 90 degree temps for a couple of days but any extended heat wave is unlikely.

One more great day before we see the return of some showers and maybe a t-storm tomorrow. Our ChescoWx forecast keeps us in the mid to upper 70's for highs each day through Sunday before we warm into the mid to upper 80's by both Tuesday and Wednesday next week before we cool down again by the end of next week. Some valley spots could certainly see some 90 degree temps for a couple of days but any extended heat wave is unlikely.

Morning visible reveals some decent low level spin, showing this has developed a surface low. However, convection has waned this morning and remains extremely disorganized. NHC has dropped odds to 60% of developing and it seems it has about a 36 hour window and conditions are marginal even during this time. 3 straight cherries failing to develop might be a first that I can recall, if 96L truly doesn't get classified as at least a TD. I do not believe in the "survivor" scenarios some ensembles show in the SW Atlantic. The TUTT this thing is going to run into is going to annihilate an open wave (30-40 kts shear) I would be shocked if anything gets through to develop. Just shocking how hostile the basin is from a shear perspective. We knew ENSO was going to be against development most of the season but seeing these extremely strong waves and a very active wave train with more limited SAL than recent seasons and not having a single one find a gap is wild. For perspective, if you took the background state of the Atlantic in any of the past few seasons and had the same SAL conditions and wave activity we are seeing with this year, I think the MDR would be setting records.

A good theory. I remember LDW in September 2019(?) being particularly brutal. Biking around with my then elementary schooler and thinking "why"

This Friday is finally a day at the beach with some surf action. Only concern might be afternoon showers.

Please no more 90 degree heat. I prefer 80, I am pushing aeration back to third week of Sept because of the potential heat.