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...well they other day someone was touting "revisions" were going to need to be made to the upcoming AN temp period forecast...

I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out.

This x1,000,000.

This would be the biggest storm for us in a while.

The overnight Op runs are coming around to the idea of a moisture laden storm that rides up the coast. The 0z Euro liked the 18th, but missed just to our south this run. Plenty of time & potential in this period.

What about February 5-10 2010?

It's not logic at all.....it's fear-mongering neurosis triggered by unsavory weather outcomes of the past.

An easy way to classify the NESIS storms in the list that I posted going back to 1995-1996 is that they are what is called benchmark storm tracks out near 40°/70°. We live in a part of the country that requires Atlantic moisture in order to achieve our heaviest snowstorms. When the primary storm track to our west like since 2018-2019, it results in less snow for our area. From 2010 to 2018 the primary storm track was located to our Southeast allowing plenty of Atlantic moisture to result in much heavier snowstorms. Those coastal storms also got a moisture boost from the Gulf Stream warming about 7° since the 1980s when the major snows were less frequent. The one common denominator in our snowfall since the 1990s has been shorter periods of productive storm tracks for our area. So in order for our area to reach 25” to 30” of snowfall since then we needed heavy coastal snowstorms. The simple math is that if we get shorter snowy periods, each period needs to be maximized in order for the season to get closer to 25”. Prior to the 1990s there were several seasons that didn’t get really heavy snowstorms but had extended periods of light to moderate snows. So a series of light to moderate events could get us to close to normal on the season. This hasn’t been the case over the last 30 years. Every 25”+ season had at least 25” of snow over this period featured at least one 10-20” or 20-30” snowfall event for a portion of the area from EWR to ISP. Some years like 2013 we had a 30-40” single event. When we have a dominant Northern Stream and storm track close to our area and to our west the ceiling is closer to 4-8” and generally under 10” for most spots like we saw twice this past December. This December had the best maximized southeast moving clipper tracks that portions of our area have ever seen for the month. We can notice the storm track pattern shifting as we moved into January. It’s more back to recent years through the Great Lakes but not the southward diving clipper tracks. In recent years the maximum snowfall on these tracks have been mostly 1-3” or 2-4” type events and not the multiple 4-8” style events we had in December. So my guess going forward is that we will need at least one 10-20” coastal snowstorm for any of the major sites from EWR to ISP to reach 25”. But even then not all of the sites would be guaranteed to reach 25” like we saw in 2022 when the coastal tracks favored Long Island and not NJ. So more of a necessary but not always sufficient situation.

Great memories from the Blizzard of 96 back when I was a freshman in college. That week of weather with the Blizzard dropping 2 feet near Harrisburg, the mid week over performing Clipper that brought a few inches, to the end of week significant coast that brought another foot to the Harrisburg area still stands as the greatest week of weather in my lifetime.

Don't write off early March as a potential prime KU target period....I also can see something pretty substantial in early February.

Only walked my driveway but looked like we were a mix of sleet and ice. Wasn’t a pure glaze, kind of rough?

PIOMASS volume growth has been slow this freezing season, ending 2025 at record low levels. The second low is 12/31/2016, which is hidden under the 2025 line.

24.9° and not doing anything at the moment Seems like it’s been all snow so far since the top layer of snow if still fluff.

A disturbing ECMWF that has dropped from 1.19" rainfall to .69" from 00z to 06z. A 43% drop in 1 run is not good! Maybe 06 was a fluke and will return at 12z?

Pure ice on everything. All surfaces glazed.

Is the guest room all set up?

Looking at where that 0C line is set up N/W of Philly metro. "Traditionally", there has been some "event" around mid-January, around MLK day, so will see which way the temps go when we get there!

there's really no reason why the pattern will just magically fall apart as we head into Feb... +EAMT should keep the jet extended along with tropical forcing moving into the CPAC the recently stronger SPV is also having zero impact, as the earlier SSW downwelled and is leading to a -AO that will persist into mid-late month. and if anything, a strong MJO pulse into phases 6 and 7 into Feb will encourage weakening of the SPV, potentially allowing for a SSW into mid-Feb. that's way out there, though

It was soup out there although it has now suddenly mostly lifted IMBY within the past half hour or so. My earlier vis. had to be no more than about 100 ft several hours ago. Made it up to 42 yesterday after a 29 low, and am currently at 39, after a low so far of 37.

lol this kind of logic has only surfaced in the last few years

If we had more than paltry precip it would have been pretty terrible here. Still 30.5 degrees

Shop temp 28/ sleet/freezing rain has left(bulk of it)

Giving up on February already ?

Little eye candy to look at on the 6z run. Euro and CMC have it still missing the phase. Followed up by a glancing shot in fantasy land. At least it's something to look at no?

Had a solid icing overnight here. Still at 32