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12z pretty much storm total precip vs. 06z

Yeah, it's not as good. Real issue is we just don't get the rates we need to force a flip with marginal temperatures. Need a stronger and sharper vort and we don't get it his run.

Agreed. A little snowier for the Sunday one and less snowy for the mid-week threat, but hard to complain for early December.

Looks like it's on the borderline for parts of the area. My current forecast is rain and 34.

H5 not as impressive as 6z little messier storm, but it’s still there at least.

The GFS keeps taking a favorable path but it's too warm for those of us in the East, freezing rain to snow mess for the western areas though.

Nice trends continue on nooner GFS. Still plenty of sorting out, but the look is not hard to stare at for this early in the season.

Looks OK for a thump out this way. Sleety after that.

Is that a some snow on the front end of the system for this upcoming Saturday night as well?

My benchmark is 1" - 3" that doesn't get washed away. Would get us to December climo.

Vort not quite as consolidated. Might stay icier. Shark privileges revoked

Going to be a long winter with the GFS it seems.

Looks like the 12z GFS is going to have something similar. The 0z CMC wasn't bad either.

Aw, thank you! That is very kind. Alas, I have been under the weather this week, getting better but not quite there yet. My family is tiny also and no one local is hosting so with no one to disappoint...I shall mainly be lounging.

Was just about to post that the NAM is raging with several more hours to go at the end of the run.

12z GFS has a much better CAD signature compared to its 00z/06z iterations.

The 12z ICON is getting on board for potential snow for the area. Plateau and west on it, with west Tennessee being the jackpot zone.

GFS is actually a lot colder at the surface than 6Z. Actually it is colder at all levels.

Looks a tad bit deamped with maybe a bit more confluence which honestly may give us more breathing room

I just had to do it!

Yeah I think it just doesn’t show freezing rain for some reason

GFS looks like it’ll probably hold to me - don’t quote me if I’m wrong in a few minutes.

Especially the case from Stowe north to Jay. A bit less so for southern resorts.

Icon is close enough for this range.