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Ensembles also showed the trough shifting out so that usually implies a warm up.

82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms in parts of N/NE Texas this evening, if the cap can break. If North Texas can see more sun today, there will be a higher chance of storms. Large hail would be the main threat, but all hazards would be possible. The HRRR shows storms firing over DFW around 6 pm. Higher threats exist farther northeast in Arkansas/Tennessee. Similar story tomorrow for parts of Central/East Texas. Higher severe threats farther east into southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

I already have 4 inches and it is really coming down. The NWS increased my point forecast and is now up to 26” today thru tomorrow.

Had 37F for a min and already 64F. Just straight up temperature curve.

well sign me up

06z NAM started slashing snow totals. We'll see if the others do so at 12z.

Good morning Don, BW, T4S’s. I m curious, when looking at Central Parks 19.7 and considering surrounding totals, if it’s measurement is accepted? Stay well. As always ….

Only lasted 20-25 minutes but like other mentioned, quality lightning show!

JMA monthly sniffed it out last week

For the other parameters of the May Euro seasonal, go here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} I'm not disappointed with what I'm seeing all things considered.

Nice morning, 61/53 here already, but showers heading this way, where did those come from ?

Not sure about "big" per se... but I agree. I explained this yesterday/why... at the time, the signal is/was mostly numeric, with some hint in the actual spatial synoptics of the general ensemble means. The operational models were, and in some cases still are, lagging a bit on that. The 00z operational Euro's extended is now just detecting the change. First to do so. It's got some spuriously oddly wrapped cyclones in the interim running up where it shouldn't but removing those and normalizing out those daily aspects that look engineered by the run .. the height changes paint an 80/60 day-night regime from IND-BOS, in real seasonal move. We'll see if the others begin to do so.

Nino 1+2 was almost 0.0 in 09-10.

Still 47F in Boston Harbor. Waters actually really cooled off this winter.

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this. 09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

Not sure it matters as an augment or not but it may be worse than usual. It seems we've been through an unusually proficient upwelling circumstance along the interface water where the Labradorian flow abuts the warmer Atlantic. Those 'tuck' waters running parallel to the coast out there are impressively colder than normal according to this source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=sstanom&ortho=1&wt=1 so yeah...intuitively any S or even SSW flow is unusual doctored. I wonder if this also the case NW Pacific. Because from the vantage provided above, ...we are uniquely cold abused. F'n weird... air and sea since last October is like a cold targeting attack right here

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event. It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998. Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. +PDO pattern

Um yea SW/SSW arent the best here early in the season, especially. But 60's is doable in May. As long as we flush the 40-50° crap out of here I'm good.

You got it!

Not super confident on CFS this far out, but this winter, if depicted right or similar, could be interesting in SE. January below of course, but December-February is an interesting period on CFS but probably changing some. Do not recall seeing this much below heights in SE in sometime. Still fun to watch.

53 degrees this morning. Maybe few pop up showers this morning.

Bob Seger lyrics?

Another factor to your local forecast. UHI + DCHI I do believe this already impacts locations downwind…à la imby

barry the goat