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Euro back to super wet end of the week. See if gfs follows suite

Just a thought on the not so normal Nino.. I just returned from another trip to FL (Flagler Beach area this time) and it certainly wasn't like a normal Nino fall 10 days for there, at least as I remember them when I lived down there. The locals were all talking about the same thing, the crazy amount of beach loss in the last month. The weather pattern along the NE coast has been dominated by cutoff after cutoff TUTT's just sitting over the Bahama's. The resultant gradient has tore the beaches to hell worse than any recent brushes with tropical systems. I am very familiar with that area and the Left Coast beaches due to my familial roots down there and I can attest the constant 25 to 40KT NE winds were just battering the beaches. Its the worst erosion I've ever seen on the NE coast of FL. 8-15 footers breaking on the beach the entire time I was there (and the locals said it was doing the same for weeks before that). My mother is about 1/4 mile from the beach proper and you could here the pounding of the waves like they were right outside the window and the wind was nonstop. It reminded me of Hurricane Elena in '85 when it just set 50-100 miles NW of the Left Coast barrier Islands and tore the hell out of us 4 or 5 days. As far as the coast up there it was as bad as a hurricane hit (which that area is notoriously immune to) only strung out over a month (and continuing). Minus the wind though it was amazingly pleasant with temps mirroring those up here (a tad warmer at night, but not much). I was actually cold many of nights and put on a sweatshirt! Moist cool air blowing 40 off of a fairly chilly (compared to the GOM) Atlantic and it was like Charleston SC in winter lol. Didn't mean to get off topic but that is definitely not a normal response for FL from an El Nino. I mean very abnormal as usually an El Nino will pump the ridging over the Bahama's in the fall and keep the tropical season going well into December. Anyway, I ramble lol, but I do agree the weather patterns have been a bit wonked and not "El Ninoish" so far. While many are hyping the potential moderate winter up here temp wise, as you said in an earlier post and I agree, our sub "should" be much more influenced by the powerful southern jet Nino's "usually" generate bringing some milder but more importantly potentially moisture laden air masses up our way. All it takes is for that northerly 0 line to shake hands with it and it's on. May not stick around all winter but who cares as long as we get some lol. For some reason I always think Nino years bring us the best potential for a big dog if some cold air can creep S even for a short period. There's usually moisture hanging around just begging to get turned into frosty flakes! Sorry for the ADD ramble lol

Late November when the PNA is positive the NAO negative and you are revisiting the Thanksgiving of yore you will know. FYI watch that full moon tide its as strong a current as it gets. If... we can stir up a beast Noreaster.....

Mean First 32° or Below in NYC: 1961-1990: November 11 1991-2020: November 20 2000-2025: November 21

November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 3.2 3.1 4.5 1.6 0.1 1.8 1.1 3.1

October is finishing with a mean temperature of 59.1° (1.2° above normal) in New York City. That was also 2.2° above the earlier 1981-2010 baseline. Temperatures will rebound to the 60s tomorrow. Unseasonable warmth will continue through much of the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Some of the guidance suggests the potential for a 1.00" or greater rainfall next Thursday into Friday. Overall, the preponderance of seasonal guidance suggests that November will be warmer to much warmer than normal across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -4.97 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.945 today.

Both Delaware https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-delaware/ and New York State https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-new-york/ are now up and availabe with raw vs anomaly vs NCEI figures charts and trends.

November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.6 1.7 2.1 3.1 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.8 0.4

And what does that translate in the states ? You need to study that

The growing season continues on.

You need to study Canada climo. Canada's plus 5 in Jan is still mid 20s Rea Point, NU at -23.4°C (-10.1°F) Calgary, AB: -2°C (28°F), freezing fog Edmonton, AB: -5°C (23°F

Don- Any chance you have a list of years and the first 32 or lower reading in the park? Would be interesting to see. Any trends on if it is getting later in the season over the last several decades? Thanks in advance if you have it.

I'm not forecasting above normal snowfall or below average temps for the season...just to be clear.

Hills are on fire with red oaks. Gorgeous

Well there has never been an el nino this strong, and never been such a warm 9 months in the conus. Also LaGuardia didnt dip below 32 in December 2015. So not at all unprecented.

WPC predicts heavy rain for western sections at 168 hr. balanced. The only possible support is GFS and ICON. What am I missing????

The color up this way is still pretty vivid in some spots but the leaves are quickly saying goodbye. On the whole this was the prettiest foliage I think I've witnessed in my time.

December is going to be a make or break month. If it's a torch then we're probably toast for the winter as a whole. If we can manage one or two events then it probably means we're setting us up for a solid winter and the pattern won't be as hostile. I'm going to set my expectations low and expect another 1997-98.

Squeal like a pig Kenny….

He’s not calling for a big winter . He’s got one decent month in Feb . And not so much for NYC

Jeff is near the moderate/severe border but I'm in moderate. However, the Sandy River is extremely low, meaning in the zero-to-5th percentile range. Carrabassett is in the same category.

Absolutely beautiful Fall colors this season around this area as well!