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That's because liquid precip and >32F temps are a guarantee for much of the year (hence "dog bites man" weather) throughout the Conus, save the higher elevations. But I know you know this!

Obviously I'm not a met, but my stance is the pattern begins to break down by mid month into Xmas...probably not "warm". I may have def. rushed that though given the weak antecedent nature of the PV in conjunction with the anticipated behavior of the MJO. Just don't be surprised to see the second half trend a bit warmer.

SWFE on 12/3? Decent NoP anyways.

Nasty and wedgy on the gfs. Let’s either delay it or get it out sooner.

GFS a few more cycles away from being a full on Turkey day snowstorm for NNE at least..

Very short post. The Baja low looks legit. It is still possible that is feedback, but unlikely since both the 12z CMC and GFS both have it. After the Thanksgiving cold snap, a standing wave will result due to the Baja low. That BL will pump a ridge over the eastern 2/3 of the United States w/ a rare Bermuda high set in place to start December. Record highs are possible over some portions of the SE. It will take some time to break all of that down. Right now, the bigger concern is that ensembles continue to hold the cold pattern in the d10-15 range as does LR ext modeling. This could be a delay in the overall cold pattern or it could mean that modeling is just wrong. Something is gonna have to give though. The MJO is set to rotate into cold phases. Either the MJO forecast plots are wrong OR modeling is simply not recognizing the MJO plot quite yet. Remember, sometimes modeling will not "see" MJO influence in the d10-15. I would guess we will see a very strong cold from around D10, and that unleashes the cold into Lower 48 (east of the Rockies). Interestingly, I do believe the Euro Weeklies has developed a cold bias. I don't know if they tweaked something, but it seems to be the default in the week 3-6 range???

I'm not even sure if it's wise to look at outcomes that far back.

0z Euro was pretty cold for Thanksgiving weekend in NYC Mid 40s for Thanksgiving, low 40s for Black Friday, mid 30s for Saturday.

This probably ties into the rule concerning the higher amplitude MJO waves in October preceding colder winters that @bluewavehas referenced, though I know that is a more recent phenomenon. I do wonder if those seasons were higher amplitude in October. Looks like 2010 would fit the mold...not so much 2005 and 2000.

Nor should anyone else, A month away many things can change, I guess i somewhat understand the thinking if you compare that period to the past few years.

The 28th at the park averages 50/39

There’s some concern from some of the energy Mets around Christmas. It’s a month out so I don’t really care at this point.

While this is true, I don't think that is the reason in this case....there is a seasonal element. No question cold and snow gets more hype in the winter.

Wonder when the GFS and foreign guidance is going to converge on Tday. GFS still like a full day slower with that trough. Foreign models all have the front offshore by Tday morning.

Well Ray’s write up did feature said warm up sometime around that period, so…

I do the same thing! .

He mentioned you as one of the ones making that claim.

Kevin probing

There’s so me well known Mets that are thinking we only have until the 15th. Not making it up

What is NYC's average high temps for Nov 27-30th? What does the Euro say those 4 days are supposed to be? My work comp blocks weatherbell so I can't see it. I know you're good looking up data though, so can you fill me in? I was thinking it showed a bit below normal temps but maybe that changed.

Voted for 6th. Have a groomers appointment for the dog at 11:00 AM but that won't affect being able to go. I'm assuming we'd be meeting up somewhere between 1:00-2:00?

Man where are you getting your info from. There's nothing that suggests a big warm-up around the holiday. Plus, it's a month away. You know as much as anyone else that things are going to change in another week and a half from now. I love the way you say these things to just try to help your reverse psychology theory. As soon as we get a real threat, you're going to be on top of it like white on rice ( just like the rest of us ).

50 / 41 looking a bit back and forth once past this Friday, overall warmer through then. 11/29 and beyond a bit back and forth.

We had bare ground in December in 2 of 9 at Fort Kent, and even with the sun out, we would drive with the headlights on by 3 PM. In rain, the gloom came even earlier.