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It will eventually hit one after 1000 tries and then everyone is going to get sucked into it because it finally got a hit and ignore the other 999 misses

CMC

that's what reggie shows, read the comment

I don’t trust the GFS AI. That’s going to cave. I think the euro AI on paper or more accurate.

There’s a stream next to where I live that feeds into Carroll Creek which was actually flowing a little from the rain last week. Been a couple days so it’s probably lower now. Really need an App runner/nor’easter track to develop to get back to square one.

Could the GFS OP be chasing the convection off the coast, while the AI is not?

I haven't either but I guess there is always a first time for everything...

I've seen a lot of AI fails however

check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up....

GFS OP is now the eastern outlier, slightly moreso than the Euro OP.

AIGFS moved east slightly.

Increasingly interesting how these perform (at least as a distraction from a middling winter) 12z-18-0-6 GFS AI steadily ticked up each cycle 12z GFS AI stabilized / ticked back but would still be warning southeast SNE 12z EC AI has been fairly steady, advisory most of southeast SNE

Headed your way tomorrow night (Houtzdale). Save some for me.

Hope we'll see the Euro start looking better and more like the GFS today.

The kicker in the Great lakes is mucking it all up

Maybe I missed something but not sure I've seen an AI coup

I know I said this before, but other than storm chances, it’s better off not to use the gfs op and GEFS. Honestly.

The AIGFS doesn't seem too drastically different from the 12z OP run yesterday in terms of the H5 evolution, both srn stream and nrn stream.

I think everyone in the triangle would take that 3-5” stripe but until euro shows it I still think precip will be further east

how did you come up with that uneducated guess ?

Snow on doorstep.

Happy day pal.

Same. I'm totally ok with a couple inches. Was never expecting anything big. Hopefully can pull something off

The modeled height field looks pretty good 60hr-72hr from TX through AL. The problem is in the Lakes from IN, OH, to NY.

Yeah that’s actually a tick worse than 06z. No difference to us, but at least 06z was getting outer Cape and islands into decent stuff.