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Sounds like a new diamond earrings for a Davis station.

Today’s 2 week GEFS MJO progressed significantly more quickly vs yesterday’s run into phase 7! Today’s 2 week GEFS (11/19) is 2 days faster making it into phase 7 vs yesterday’s run and is already halfway through phase 7 as of 12/3! Yesterday’s 2 week GEFS (11/18) didn’t get to phase 7 til 12/1 vs today’s 11/29: Yesterday’s extended GEFS (11/18) didn’t have it halfway through phase 7 til 12/7 meaning today’s 2 week GEFS gets to halfway through phase 7 four days faster than yesterday!

-PNA is the default in niñas. I think we all agree here this winter will be predominantly a -PNA one.

2-3 weeks of cold in December seems pretty locked in at this point. The million dollar question: is it cold / dry or do we some chances?

Can't you see how terrible that looks?? Its gotta be wrong until there's a run that has a deep trough in Cali & raging ridge in the East....then it's gospel. But do not worry, it is all objective with no subjectiveness at all. BTW, the posters I am messing with (you know who you are) I mean it all in total fun. You guys are actually really good posters!!

It was finally calm and clear, their low temperature was 2 degrees last night.

no way mjo goes into phase 8. We're in a down cycle. We're paying for the previous snowy 20 year period.

Low of 12.2° at WXW2 in the village. We finally got the clear to close so I’ll have a fixed location for wx obs soon. Wife won’t like the cost of a new Davis but I told her it’s top of the priorities list lol.

I was up in State College early this morning, and it was a general 1-2” or so up there. A legitimate plowable snowfall in some parts of town and the surrounding area up there. Good thing this didn’t occur a few hours later than it did, as P-Dot was able to get on it before the morning rush. Pine Grove Mills a few miles from State College

Locked & loaded

yeah, 19 here. Saturday bottomed out around 29. As I passed by ponds en route to disk golf I noticed ice had crept out about 4 to 6' from the shores, so thin it was gone by early afternoon. Hadn't seen that in recent autumns (I'm the type of nerd that noticed little details like that). Recent Novembers hadn't provided for that intermediate stage in inland ice, but this year hearkens back to that. I didn't venture out this morning but I'm sure at 19 there was probably more than just shore ice.

I have a poker game scheduled for Black Friday so watch a coastal develop and over perform.

Early Dec looks warm. One brief cold shot to close Thanksgiving and we get a raging -pna and SER after.

Hey if we somehow make it through without warmth, you can rapture me with those burly, furry, ACATT arms.

Yes. I always have a 3 week supply of hopium. If you run out, I can get you some. I think there is a good consensus that we'll have a decently cold December. Mets seem excited.

Do I dare give myself hope for snow?

warm wet and cold dry is an unbeatable pattern

I absolutely agree with this albeit going against climo in CT. If you go through the entire holiday season without a winter event, it’s hard to say the winter was epic when your first snow was Jan 28th. It’s just not the same, even though the science says ain’t happening James.

Pretty chilly this morning, 17F, Not fake.

I’ve made this point here before, but Rodriguez has logged a total of 572 innings in 8 professional seasons. I don’t blame the Orioles for moving on. They’ve been waiting a long time on him.

May have to lean GEFS/GEPS 70% EPS/AIFS 30% blend with EPS leaning too warm lately

First teens of the season. 16.3° for the low.

Had more rain than I thought. The event for here was 0.46"

It will change, but the 6z GFS shows the potential for the pattern with a slider late in the run.

Lol You can't lead a blind parade down a straight street ever since you have had 3 bad winters. Confirmation bias to the max.