All Activity

i would not mind a brief warmup its been so cold lately even with the heat on i feel cold..

Some good replies on this one (especially the one about banks): https://x.com/mazemoore/status/2055376238345076837

I’m really interested to see if the AI guidance on balance continues its usefulness (originally I wanted to say dominance but that’s probably a bit too much) in TC genesis and forecasting this season. It’ll likely be a quiet season, and that’ll be a good test of how it sniffs out favorable windows. Last season some of the AI was exceptional, especially GDM.

I've really made a concerted effort to factor CC in after the 2023 El Nino handed me my ass.

I know spring is prone to temperature swings, but I don't think there has ever been a more bipolar spring than this one. I hope this doesn't continue into the summer. Imagine it being 100+ degrees one day in July, and then only in the 50s at the same time the next day. I can't do that!

Yes, the last real multi-year drought in New England was in the 1960s, and yet the media has turned the word "drought" into a fear-mongering term, acting like its very existence is somehow atypical. Every time we get into a extended period (up to 6 months) dry here, it always seems to correct itself after this time. But that's not good for the fear-mongers, they just invented "weather whiplash" to still be negative/gloom and doom. What, do they expect gentle April showers all the time and no drought conditions ever?

How about "hot?" Somehow temps in the low 80s now have become "hot" on local TV forecasts. It all falls in pushing the "hot" narrative overall. 85-90 or upper 80s historically has been hot for New England in forecasts.

we had above precip the last few months and this map hasnt changed. winter was a tad dry but I feel like they just keep releasing the same map cause they dont want to make a new one cause not many people even care about it. no way we are even close to any of this drought color.

Yep its way off it hasnt really been updated in like 2 months at least. I got close to 1.00 of rain in the last week that would put us even for the year.

Given the sfc low tracked/developed right over SNE, are you surprised? Scott needs to look up his 700 low track rule for dry slots!

So WSR-88Ds can now go as low as 0.3 deg for BREF1?

One other thing, and this is biggie. The NAM has always been useless when it comes to TCs. It sucks w/ track and intensity, doing all sorts of odd things. It never was designed to handle TCs. The HRRR seems to handle TCs well, and no reason to think the RRFS will not be the same. I'll check further on this. Everyone seems focus on the negative for the "new stuff," but leaves out the shortcomings of the present, like the NAM guidance, that has sig drawbacks. One thing I will miss, the NAM MOS handles low-level cold air much better than the GFS MOS. Which brings me to another point, is there MOS-type output for other models, CAM and global? If so, what is a good site to view it? W/ NAM MOS going away, more and more will likely just look at 2 m temps (some do already), and run w/ them -- not good in the longer ranges!

CoastalWx *demands* a Weymouth specific fcst!!! LOL.

So it seems that only the 24 hr state record was set. They noted 38" storm total at Woonsocket for the Blizzard of 78. So the PVD storm total falls just short of the state record it seems? If we had the degree of detail for observations in Feb 1978 like we do now, you'd very likely find lots of 40"+ amounts storm totals (Scott would see to that!) both in RI and eastern MA. 44" was reliably measured in an open field in Woburn MA, and from pix I have seen people shoveling out walkways and standing next to "snow walls" the morning of Feb 7, about 3 ft had already fallen, and it was S/S+ for another 12 hr or so in eastern MA.

Wasn’t expecting a watch this far east. Probably won’t even get here until 4-5am and I can’t imagine it’ll stay together but we’ll see. I’ll take a few rumbles even if that’s the most I get out of it.

1.91" last three days. Sun broke out early evening. Looking forward to a taste of summer.

KCTH - Eugene Island 338K LA 28.196 -91.667 44m KEOP - Waverly OH KLQR -Larned KS KNBJ - Foley AL

lol - Nats bullpen still likes to make things interesting.

Yeah I can't necessarily remember a consistent pattern like this where it goes from so warm to so cool each month of Spring. In April you had 90's then 20's. This week my forecast high on Tuesday is 98, then next Saturday it's 60..

May start drinking Pepsi to see if I can taste the sweat in it

Could see smoke from my house earlier today. Not seeing anything this evening. Hopefully this will get contained quick. Lake Superior is a natural barrier, so they can concentrate on areas that will impact property more. Was in the 80's today with very low RH. Awesome mid May day. Should be in the 70's tomorrow with a little less wind, but still a decent breeze. Thankfully lots of rain coming starting Sunday aftrn sometime.

Quite possibly the best symbolic metric for that is the fact that the nights won’t be nearly as cold. This will cause a healthy status of green up to go full on jungle by the end of the week. Frankly, I’m amazed green ups as far as it is the way it’s been dipping into 37 every night for the past 7000 years

While it was closer to 18C/65F today, it still felt cool and unwholesome out there with some patchy sun. I think around 1pm that's when it got mostly cloudy . Thurs it was 3pm the veil of despair smothered us. I find I feel unwell as soon as the veil of despair makes it over here. Tomorrow rain, just sickening.

Yep... Mayo still sucks