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Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today

Looks like a legit eye to me but it’s only cleared out bc the convection waned and isn’t overshooting it from the SW I believe. Looks legit now

My gut maybe right after all with the way the QPF keeps lowering here in the piedmont. Jesus we cant get anything right here except for drought and humidity/heat.

We've had measurable rain on 3 of 8 days this month, which would project 137 such days per year, only 7 days less than average (average precip is 48.83)". Total precip is 0.06" - totaling 2.74" for the year. No wonder the Sandy River is in the bottom 10% and Carrabassett in the bottom 5%. The upper halves of trees here are 90% de-leafed. Lower half about halfway. Today's wind hasn't been grabbing much foliage so far.

I would think tonight’s its last chance to ramp up. It’s clearly struggling already with dry air and shear. Looks elongated already.

Total expected rainfall from WPC is yet another reduction:

My expectation for most of the piedmont is 1" but I would not be surprised in the coastal convection robbed even more moisture and there is a screw zone of like 1/2" between here and PTI

That’s good news if it holds for those threatened. Hopefully shear will do its thing and keep it struggling. But it looks like it will probably still be a hurricane when it comes in and thus be no picnic for them.

Hello all. Announcing something new on chescowx.com...ChescoWx Studies! This is an ongoing series looking at what makes Chester County's climate unique, this will include deep analysis of climate patterns and cycles, weather monitoring equipment and tools and past storm write ups and details. Each study takes one question, tests it against our station records and gives you the answer with the numbers behind it. I would welcome any feedback or pushback on the methods or the results. The series lives here and will grow as new studies are finished: https://chescowx.com/chescowx-studies/ Study 1 - Equipment & Siting. Three stations at my place in East Nantmeal. A ground-level fan-aspirated Davis, a rooftop Tempest and a ground-level Ambient with a passive shield. The Tempest highs ran about +3°F in July through September and +3.3°F on sunny, calm days, with 45 days of 90°F vs 8 for the Davis. To separate the roof from the shield, I looked at the Ambient. From 2021 to 2023 its summer highs matched the Davis within a few tenths while the Tempest was +2.8°F...so it is the roof, not the shield. Once the Ambient shield was damaged, though, it ran almost 7°F warm on sunny days. Location first, then upkeep. Study 2 - Elevation & Terrain. Most of our hilltop stations came along decades after the valley ones, and the weather varies from one decade to the next, so I compared them over the same years (2012 to 2025) using USGS 3DEP elevations. 19 stations with at least 8 complete years, by band: 100 to 300 ft (4 stations): high 64.4, low 43.6, 90 degree days 19, freezing nights 111, growing season 182 days 300 to 600 ft (8 stations): high 63.3, low 44.5, 90 degree days 11, freezing nights 101, growing season 192 days 600 ft and up (7 stations): high 62.3, low 45.3, 90 degree days 9, freezing nights 94, growing season 204 days Days follow elevation and nights follow terrain position. Highs drop about 1.7°F for every 300 ft, but lows track how far a station sits above its immediate surroundings, which is why they actually rise as you go up. For snow I used a same-storm comparison (521 storms, 60+ human-observed sites) so a snowy decade at one station does not skew it. Overall the hills get about 8% more snow for every 300 ft (29% per 1,000 ft), but the time of season matters a lot: Oct-Nov (24 storms) about 25% per 300 ft Dec-Jan (251 storms) about 6% Feb (151 storms) about 5% Mar-Apr (95 storms) about 18% March 2004 is a good example: East Nantmeal 11.0, Coatesville 2W 8.8 vs Exton 3.0, Chadds Ford 3.4, West Chester 2.2. There are always a few sites that do not fit, and the southern uplands around West Grove and New London run less than their elevation would suggest. The north also gets a bit more than the south, while the western part of the county gets more only because it is higher. Precipitation showed no elevation effect at all. Let me know if any questions, if you see anything that does not hold up, or if there is a question you would like to see tested next!

I haven't looked at the QBO in a while, but it's bearish. Note that most of us agree it's not very reliable, so take it with less than a grain of salt.

Do you have it for OK?

Capital Weather latest forecast for Sunday. https://www.capitalweather.com/how-will-tropical-storm-isaias-affect-the-dc-region-this-weekend/

Been on the same pattern since yesterday of convection really dying off during diurnal minimum but coming back with a vengeance overnight

Go take the super niño and push it somewhere else

Cloud tops warmed pretty quick. This system is definitely struggling right now.

I don't see an "EYE". Just hallucinations with convection sheared well to the NE. I named this sat capture as GONZO

They updated it not long ago and cut back central NC from this:

Now wonder im sick, the other night i needed the heat, now the house is hot and the AC is on.

It’s passing over some slightly cooler SSTs right now

Complain?

Hello all. Announcing something new on chescowx.com...ChescoWx Studies! This is an ongoing series looking at what makes Chester County's climate unique, this will include deep analysis of climate patterns and cycles, weather monitoring equipment and tools and past storm write ups and details. Each study takes one question, tests it against our station records and gives you the answer with the numbers behind it. I would welcome any feedback or pushback on the methods or the results. The series lives here and will grow as new studies are finished: https://chescowx.com/chescowx-studies/ Study 1 - Equipment & Siting. Three stations at my place in East Nantmeal. A ground-level fan-aspirated Davis, a rooftop Tempest and a ground-level Ambient with a passive shield. The Tempest highs ran about +3°F in July through September and +3.3°F on sunny, calm days, with 45 days of 90°F vs 8 for the Davis. To separate the roof from the shield, I looked at the Ambient. From 2021 to 2023 its summer highs matched the Davis within a few tenths while the Tempest was +2.8°F...so it is the roof, not the shield. Once the Ambient shield was damaged, though, it ran almost 7°F warm on sunny days. Location first, then upkeep. Study 2 - Elevation & Terrain. Most of our hilltop stations came along decades after the valley ones, and the weather varies from one decade to the next, so I compared them over the same years (2012 to 2025) using USGS 3DEP elevations. 19 stations with at least 8 complete years, by band: 100 to 300 ft (4 stations): high 64.4, low 43.6, 90 degree days 19, freezing nights 111, growing season 182 days 300 to 600 ft (8 stations): high 63.3, low 44.5, 90 degree days 11, freezing nights 101, growing season 192 days 600 ft and up (7 stations): high 62.3, low 45.3, 90 degree days 9, freezing nights 94, growing season 204 days Days follow elevation and nights follow terrain position. Highs drop about 1.7°F for every 300 ft, but lows track how far a station sits above its immediate surroundings, which is why they actually rise as you go up. For snow I used a same-storm comparison (521 storms, 60+ human-observed sites) so a snowy decade at one station does not skew it. Overall the hills get about 8% more snow for every 300 ft (29% per 1,000 ft), but the time of season matters a lot: Oct-Nov (24 storms) about 25% per 300 ft Dec-Jan (251 storms) about 6% Feb (151 storms) about 5% Mar-Apr (95 storms) about 18% March 2004 is a good example: East Nantmeal 11.0, Coatesville 2W 8.8 vs Exton 3.0, Chadds Ford 3.4, West Chester 2.2. There are always a few sites that do not fit, and the southern uplands around West Grove and New London run less than their elevation would suggest. The north also gets a bit more than the south, while the western part of the county gets more only because it is higher. Precipitation showed no elevation effect at all. Let me know if any questions, if you see anything that does not hold up, or if there is a question you would like to see tested next!