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Yea, I mentioned folks have up on that reversal too quickly...maybe it won't technically get there, but it will be close.

84 hr. NAM is even more fun to look at

where's my projected 35" over the next 7 days????

Yes, the "fast flow" explanation is a bit too reductive IMHO.

06z euro improvement seems tied to that douchy feature over New Brunswick. Let's see that injection continue to withdrawitserlf to the NE.

The best thing I can say this morning is this threat is still 4 days away. Anything can happen in 4 days. Yesterday morning I said don't plan tailgate parties until Saturday. That applies again today. One big question to me has always been. Will the main action be tucked into the coast or too far offshore?? Yesterday, the Euro couldn't find the storm because it was half way to Bermuda before it really cranked. Things are a little better this morning but the GEFS is way out there. The benchmark for a big hit west of 95 is usually an east longitudinal alignment with Norfolk. South or even southwest is a different ballgame. Eastern folks can do somewhat better a little offshore, but this is too much for most. (Unless it changes) Always trying to be positive, I'm happy that my 7 model blend this morning is 2.1 inches.

There has been about three hours of sun in the past five days.

Yeah, quite a bit closer than 0Z... with GFS going the opposite direction. There will probably be more run that tries to pull everybody in

Well whatever is causing these systems to be so progressive, It's irritating...They need to wind up sooner. Turn the corner.

Yes, exactly.

Irony being @MJO812has been citing the decaying block as the reason we are going to get a big storm all week

0.25” of rain overnight. HRRR is selling a few inches of snow here this afternoon. Going to be a nowcast type of day.

Not such a bad look on the Eps Sunday at 1pm. And it is a mean.

Well it's more than just faster flow. It's more about competing influences that don't mesh together and a lot of that is due to multiple areas of forcing in the Pacific. We've also had a dearth of southern stream systems.

Yup and it was there for the last couple storms but not now! Plus you have -

Sorry, reposted!

33 degrees and rain. Looks like rain for a lot of the day. Trend has been south all season. Something to watch.

WB 6Z EPS: about 18/50 or 36%.

I don't understand how fast flow in-and-of-itself would favor one longitude for phasing over another. Now, what I do understand is why tropical forcing overlayed onto said speed-of-flow increase may do that.

I’m literally playing this as I loop that and lmao.

I swear I’ve never seen something like that in my life.

POV: You're too much of a weather weenie for a forum full of weather weenies.

Mine would be lower without 13/14 in the mix, def a high outlier winter. 22/23 was awfullllllll