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Snowing again moderately

I didn't read back. What you end up at Mattapoisett?

16.6° low imby/Columbia

My bad totally misunderstood. I was actually using cobb11 in that screen shot You're right...its not the max temp you can adjust, its the fixed ratio.

Definitely worried about suppression but it’s not impossible to get something.

You're going to have a long week....If i were you i would be very vague in your FB posts and really vague for your paying customers lol

I think it's a combo of both as I'm noticing the runs that our south the SW shortwave gets left behind. Also we never want to be ground zero at day 5.5, rarely works out.

16 at the farm this AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The potential for a possibly significant winter storm has increased for this weekend, but uncertainty remains. The upper air pattern resembles what appears to be a very favorable pattern for a winter storm somewhere in the eastern U.S. heading into this weekend. Before that, a potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some upslope snow showers are possible with each front. By the end of the week and especially heading into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Model guidance is still very much all over the place in regards to exactly what comes of this, but there is growing consensus for an area of low pressure developing across the south-central/southeastern CONUS. Depending on when and where that area of low pressure develops, as well as where it goes after it does develop, there could be significant wintry precipitation across our area sometime next weekend. Uncertainty remains with this system, as there is some potential that strong Arctic high pressure could suppress the system south. However, that high (~1040 mb Arctic high) is also a source of very cold air; this likely remains in place due to a favorable -AO/-NAO blocking pattern. Meanwhile, there are an increasing amount of ensemble members that bring significant wintry precipitation to the region due to an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend. The latest ensemble guidance is certainly on the upward trend in that regard, but that doesn`t mean it can`t swing back in the other direction. It will be key to monitor this threat closely in the coming days as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs. Current model spread indicates an axis of significant snow/ice could be as far north as Upstate New York, or as far south as the Carolinas. Bolded some key parts of the afd

awwww someone getting upset this morning

6z AIFS would be a certified banger for Philly. Surface temps hover around 10-14° as you squeeze 1-1.5" of QPF into this cold dome.

Just woke up. I’ll summarize… models basically held. We’re on the northern part of the precip shield, which could help our ratios and h700 fgen forcing. Cold high is starting to weaken (was probably overdone). And I’ll address this: in this specific case, move that pna ridge a few hundred miles east, and we’ll suppress this thing all the way to the gulf. The EPO is so strong that we need a little SE ridging to give us a good overrunning event. It’s not the same thing as a bomb cyclone HECS, but overrunning with lots of cold can produce a lot of snow if strong enough.

I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.

The EC-AIFS single skill data available online is the leader through 120 hrs. I have seen the EPS-AIFS data through day 10 and it slightly edges out the regular EPS. But it’s still close. I have noticed the single EC-AIFS show volatility beyond 120 hrs here like the other guidance in regard to storm tracks. This is one situation that we actually want a stronger Southeast ridge so the best overrunning occurs closer to our area. But the storm is still modeled beyond the best 120hr range so we are just going to have to take a wait and see approach. The Euro following the upgrade around 2014 had been too suppressed with East Coast storm systems. With the GFS becoming very volatile since its upgrade in 2019. EC-AIFS better Southeast ridge Regular Euro weaker Southeast ridge.

AIFS

Which has done better this season?

Managed another 1/2 or so on the street at the plow cleared a little over an hour ago. Coming down steadily----but I think the end is in sight. Heading to Pit1 shortly.

19

Yeah I'm having a hard time believing those, tbh. Until we see less suppression from the regulars it'll be hard to buy it

You need a new shtick. I was all over this storm.

yes Richmond VA as ground zero… 5 days, but this is not a complex setup. No multiple shortwaves or potential phasing of streams type variability. I’m seeing most of the forecast is about a significant arctic airmass… the shortwave will ride the boundary… That’s it. I think we gain a day or two of guidance accuracy given the lack of complexity here.

Hey at least we have AL's models on our side

lol yup

one step closer to purple than we usually get