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AIFS has done particularly well with verification on the lower end of QPF distribution (<= 0.25") and has a good indication of the coverage within those bounds. It still struggles with higher QPF allotments, especially anything with convective backgrounds. Might get the areal extent of the "where" right, but magnitude is going to struggle. This has been the case for the past few years of evaluations. Totally agree with the SLP and 5H outputs being the areas it does the best with. I have noticed it tends to waver outside the D5 window, which is the case with next weeks system as well, but it will slowly move and hold firm between the D3-5 window before usually settling within the bounds of a solution. Atmospheric complexities are still prevalent within the grand scheme and the AI models will still be subject to variability at leads due to the complex variables at hand. They are a useful tool and one that helps aid in medium and short range forecasting.

I think that it just has to be smaller than 1.95 MB. That's limiting, but it will work.

Rippage

Well, I hope this just fills in more and more.

Note the feature over e TN, sw VA into w NC is a wave on arctic front, the upper level low is still back around n.e. Missouri and central IL dropping southeast. Moderate snow partly lake enhanced has broken out over n/c IL associated with the upper low. This light to moderate snow band will catch up to the pivoting arctic frontal wave tonight and Saturday morning as the low begins to deepen more rapidly off the coast.

Snow in south east loudon 30 degrees my weather app just jumped to 4-6 inches was 2-4

Always rooting for you guys down there !

Less stormy

I’m in Surry Co and looks good my area as well. I’ll gladly take that map.

Obligatory 606 pic

My loops from the previous storm. I actually saved a lot more data for making a 500mb loop, but I didn't post that. https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_23_2026_GFS_surface_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_24_2026_radar_loop.html

Snow flying on Signal Mountain I hear @jeff .

I don't see it. After we have gotten a good thump maybe. We have east winds right now=good.

I’ll keep an eye out for their posts. And thank you!

Heavy overcast here ceiling looks like its lowering.

Still true today

Checking in from New York ,,,,taking a look at this thread = nice job guys enjoy the snow and the weekend

ICON GFS good for SEVA. EURO yikes

We have ice on our oyster beds in buzzards bay that's unprecedented in our lifetime. Maybe yore yore. .

So my wife just had a Facebook reminder from January 30, 2010 when we got a pretty big snow. The Facebook post was….. “David waited all week for this snow and 30 minutes before it started, he started puking his guts out and has been in bed the rest of the night”. I’ll never forget that. We ended up with 6”-8” and I watched every flake fall laying on my bathroom floor. [emoji1787] .

It was supposed to say NC i fat fingered the A .

I can see you are now in winder! I lived in MN a while. The snow was great but after growing up in GA the cold was brutal. Haven’t seen anything hitting the ground but temp is down to 39. I am in habersham county just next to Rabun

NCa? All of North Carolina?