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The ECM AI models give my area .30" - .40" 4 - 8 Sunday evening. The ECM deterministic is way over-hyped according to the WPC at .90".

Euro is much more interesting Sunday/Monday for rain and some windy showers. Pretty consistent about a bit more than just a quick passing front with some showers. Hope it is correct.

That must be it, I guess it pulled arctic air down out of Russia and cooled the surface temps on the Russian coast.

A 5F temp drop followed by a change in the winds from SW to W? I'm tracking it...stay vigilant.

Mentioned it earlier, but I’ve noticed a common denominator among all the -NAO’s during the winter that kept “linking up” with the SE ridge/WAR….a New Foundland warm pool

During a chronologically challenged AM you do make a welcome night light. Stay well Liberty. As always ….

Re: Delos - Well except for one thing - Delos demise wasn't because of sea level rise - it was because it was destroyed by attacks and looting, and also due to much of the island sinking due to tectonic plate movement, which is *much* faster (~2.5cm per year) than the sea level rise (~2.8mm per year). Delos is right on the Hellenic Arc - the main border of the African and Eurasian plates, where there is significant subduction happening. You might want to check facts like that before you post things like you did. While I think ChescoWx is wrong with much of his positions here - he's right about the climate change scare being discredited by playing loose with facts and principles in scaremongering. He's right about the terminology you've been using in your post. You present as if there is some sort existential crisis happening, when there very much isn't. Yes it's a slow motion problem - but it's a *lot* slower than you present. In general societal infrastructure - houses, businesses, roads, etc. - are re-built due to simply aging out *much* faster than they will be threatened by rising sea levels; every century or so for most things. So the solution is simply - when something gets torn down and rebuilt, due to being very old (say 100 years or 200 years) - simply build the replacement a bit higher - either inland or by literally adding new land (it's quite easy actually - e.g. ask the Emirates, Dutch, Bostonians, Manhattanites, etc.). Yes there may be some additional expense (beyond the normal expense of rebuild). But IMO it will be *far* less expensive than trying to actually prevent sea level rise; especially since such prevention is most likely futile.

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east. That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast. The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

That’s just radar algorithms…not ground truth. Cranky should know that.

Fwiw due to it being way out in fantasyland, the 12Z Euro has Mitch-like/Eta-like/Iota-like flooding in N Honduras as it stalls just to the N of Honduras for a few days and intensifies followed by E and then ENE/NE movement to W of Jamaica headed toward C Cuba at the end as a trough picks it up.

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1978632840305631546?s=19 Winter outlook

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1978632840305631546?s=19 Cold Winter outlook

Thing is, and who knows how much, if any, it matters, but we are likely not going to see an official Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthlies Enso 3.4 average temps at or below -.5C) this winter if consensus modeling is correct. Not that the RONI won't be in Niña territory as well as Chuck's favorite subsurface readings, but it is something that "might" make a difference. In fact, Enso 3.4 temps are struggling to even maintain a -.5C reading over the past month+. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for I'll repeat...who knows.

There's one day that's listed with a high of 72° (10/2) that actually had a high of 66°. I'm not sure how the 72° got into the climate record. Every other NYC area location ((BDR: 63, ISP: 67, LGA: 66, NYC: 66, EWR:68, HPN: 64)) + the hourly data shows < 70° for 10/2. During late September/early October, there were recurring issues at the JFK station.

We've got 2 weeks left of October. I wouldn't count any of those things out until we're closer to the end of the month.

I agree. It's possible that other variables contributed, too, beyond the two utilized e.g., PNA. During the AO+/NAO+ days, 61.8% had a PNA+; for AO+/NAO- days, 56.5% had PNA+.

True but we also had two category 5's this year, two category 5's last year, and the boiling caribbean hasn't been remotely touched this year. So it's entirely safe to say that if atmospheric conditions allow, something could easily blow up in caribbean in late October.

This just made the TWO for first time (0/20): Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave located over the tropical central Atlantic is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days. Some slow development of this system is possible when it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

The WPC just released their 3 month forecast for winter and it doesn't look good for us. https://x.com/NWSGSP/status/1978840883098202131 However, just out of curiosity and went back and looked at their forecast for the 2013-2014 since that seems to be the winter that is getting the most comparisons and the similarities are striking. Below is also how that winter faired for us.

Thanks. It’s a bit surprising. If the AO is going to be positive, then we should root for a +NAO instead of - Wondering if the SE ridge linkage happens more with a +AO/-NAO regime…

I thought slightly AN. Too bullish on the peak, but nailed the big lull and when the tropics would heat up. It was a pretty big comeback but this season never had the runway others did.