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I don't think we're "done" however, no epicosy for February for sure. Will March have a stretch that that dash hopes of an early spring for Torchy the Tiger... stay tuned

The ECMWF-AIFS is moving into it s high-skill range, where it continues to outperform the non-AI guidance. It continues to show very little prospect for the kind of occasional snowy solution that has popped up from time to time on some of the guidance. At 500 mb, its map tells the story about the low probability of phasing. The northern energy is well in front of the southern energy. This limits the risk of interaction, much less phasing. Not surprisingly, the other guidance now appears to be in line with the AIFS, with none showing a snowy solution for the NYC area. If one looks at the EPS ensembles, 16% showed 6" or more snow and fewer than 6% of members showed 10" or more snow during the 2/12 0z cycle vs. the respective 22% and 12% during the 2/11 0z cycle (in which the operational ECMWF showed a phased solution). Although it's premature to suggest that precipitation, should it arrive, cannot start as a little snow, sleet or mixed precipitation, the idea of a phased solution with significant snowfall appears unlikely. As has been the case much of this winter, should that outcome verify, the ECMWF-AIFS will again have led the way at an impressive lead time. Finally, the ECMWF-AIFS map 36 hours later shows a distinct failure to phase.

Winter looks done

Currently sitting at 28 degrees this morning, which is not bad. The sad, and infuriating part for me, is that it appears that there will be no temperature rise today. Ugh... To add insult to injury for this warmanista, after two early shift Fogelsville deliveries, I get to go up into the tundra that is Hazleton. That god-forsaken place that has an entirely different winter climate than most other places in Eastern PA.

@CAPE Storm is back??

Snow depth at 1500ft is up to 45” again for the second time this season. Keeps snowing.

All those were historical winters: 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0.0 0.0 61.9 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.3

GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern.

It’s over and we slowly melt. Winter is winding down.

Looked at ens guidance and next week looks like our thaw, but many show 30s n 40's for much of period. I'm sure a day or 2 might tickle the 50. Just a boring stretch incoming. Twds the end, it looks like we get some colder air back but not a big signal. Just boring. long term -pna/+nao/+ao says coldest favored west. Its not a close the shades look, but not a good one either.

Yep, and on the same Euro run 5 days later there are these temp anomalies.

overnighters have us on the northern edge of precip, and several have short period of snow here. Still think it comes further north.

The GFS, Euro and lord help me for even saying... even the Icon are now near identical with the non storm for the weekend

WxKaren

I’ll be the weenie. Winter might be fading quick

Can’t say I’m surprised. Feb-Mar usually torches during a Nina, with a few exceptions. In fact this was baked into my winter outlook.

Jesus you guys are weenies. It’s over and it’s been over.

Viener Schnitzel for all.

Actually a big shift on the ICON EPS

6z ICON bumped north but still south.. Icon EPS has some hits FWIW ... seems like this storm is all or nothing

Now is akin to the "summer's back is broken" time we have every August. The steady march to spring picks up speed.