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Yup and this statement and its been a while since Warning criteria was met around for most. All this to say, confidence on p-types remains low but confidence of getting warning criteria snow/sleet and/or ice accumulations is increasing.

This is just complete model porn if you've researched and tracked these things for 25 years. Just absolutely SICK looking 500mb chart. I have NEVER seen one look this good for our area (GA/SC/NC) from just a general winter storm perspective, regardless of where you find yourself in the precip type category.

GGEM / GEPS

I was in Atlanta for a wedding during an ice storm in the late 90's. Dont remember the exact date. I was in Conyers actually. The house I was ain backed up to a pine forest. And I can still remember the sound of 15 inch diameter pine trees snapping in half. Power was out for days. It was one of the most incredible weather related things I have ever seen/heard.

15:1 possible assuming soundings are favorable. Me personally I'd stick with 12:1 for now when calculating snowfall off the current QPF forecasts. Not to mention in a long duration storm the ratios can change from high to low or vice versa during the storm duration. Death bands can produce great ratios. So maybe a storm that has 10:1 to 20:1 throughout the storm duration averages out to 15:1 when all is said and done. Just to early make ratio forecasts. Way to premature to even stay 15:1 IMO.

Ethan put out his three possibilities

I was hesitant to mention it, but there were also sightings of the elk this fall at an even lower elevation than the last time we saw it nearby. I myself did not see it, so I’m not sure if it counts.

WB 12Z EPS compared to OZ.

That's what I remember from 2010. I mean every broadcast it kept going up and up and up...and my mom and I were like "HERE?"

Hasn't the Richmond area been in the bullseye for a few days now? That has got to be a record in consistency.

close to 3' in Cape-town

Watches coming out now. I thought they might wait until tomorrow, but Oklahoma offices are pulling the trigger now and I assume the rest will follow.

JMA looks pretty good as well

You asked a question. Many people replied with detailed answers. At this point just go with what you think best. No need to debate it. Most of us agree it’s best to wait to figure details like snow ratio out. If you don’t want to, then just multiply what you think ratios will be X Qpf output and have a field day with it

Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus.

Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2'

Gotcha that makes sense, that's why the thermals were so much worse with the intial WAA precip, because of the retreating high

Unfortunately for the ATL area, the atmosphere on the 12Z Euro has warmed notably vs the prior 2 runs, especially at/near 850 mb. Thus, the WxBell Euro’s ptype, which is clearly almost all ZR even without looking at soundings, isn’t debatable. The 12Z Euro has ~2.3” qpf of wintry precip, with the vast majority being ZR, falling over a 36 hour period from hour 99 (10 AM Sat 1/24) til hour 135 (10 PM Sun 1/25). The coldest is from Sat evening through the entire night with mid 20s. Fortunately it’s still out 4-5.5 days and obviously a lot can change. This as well as recent runs are in the ballpark of worst case scenarios for there, a colder version of Jan 1973 (which was only barely <32). So, keep hope alive as just about any change would be better than what this run shows. As ominous as this is, it still being out 4-5.5 days leaves notable opportunity for improvement from the worst case.

Don't' go chasing shortwaves, please stick with the clown maps and Bastardi quotes you're used to.

I absolutely love ya’ll! It’s why I’m still here after 20+ years

I saw a groundhog roaming around at Scooter's Coffee(great place on the west end here!) during the middle of winter last week. I should have known we were in trouble then.

1. This will be a very cold setup 2. The storm track won't favor a very windy event

Anyone have the latest Euro sleet/ice map? GA specifically please

Norman is the first office to issue watches for this, many more to come.

The density and structure of snowflakes are influenced by wind. Strong winds can cause sheer forces and collision forces that can break up delicate snowflakes and cause damage to them before they fall to the ground. When a snowflake breaks up, it will typically become much smaller and denser than an intact snowflake because the intact snowflake has significant amount of air trapped within it, which enables snowflakes to be stacked on top of each other. When snowflakes are broken up due to wind, they will lose their structure, making it impossible to stack them. Therefore they will not develop the same amount of height per volume of water as intact snowflakes due to density. As a second point, strong winds often contain turbulent airflows and sublimation. Because they contain a high ratio of surface area to mass, smaller fragments of snowflake are more likely to be partially sublimated away or lifted into the upper atmosphere than intact snowflakes. Thus, much of the snowflakes created by strong winds won't reach the ground where we measure snow accumulation. Thus, the end result is a classic example of meteorological misrepresentation. When looking at radar images and the equivalent liquid from the snowfall, they may appear to be large amounts of moisture, but the awash in total in the ground will be relatively small when compared to the amount of snow that fell as part of the event. This is why windy events tend to produce low totals even when the snow continues to fall steadily.