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Fargo's nearly +18° departure in February 2024 was undoubtedly boosted by the very strong Nino, but that wasn't the whole story. Given the elevated global baseline and increased frequency of extreme warm anomalies, seeing a month like that this upcoming winter somewhere in the lower 48 wouldn't be too surprising. Not to mention the strength of this Nino, which is unprecedented. Things could potentially get out of hand, but I’m ready for it.

Looks as though you may see a remnant leftover anyway

Tropical downpour in Greenfield right now. Way heavier than radar indicated so I imagine the pretty colors south of us are getting hammered.

Sprinkles as it collapses. Yippee!

Those nighttime complexes with marginal EML lead to wild light shows . Just ask your pal Vort 95

On the eastern edge of a severe warning now. I think the best will be west, but I'll gladly take whatever I get.

It’s a pretty interesting weather week. I’m all in for whatever. Raining again now, but that’s only gonna pump the humidity for the rest of the week!

2026 already happened and was a cold white winter. But welcome to the thread and happy trolling!

Not weird at all. In fact, done completely intentionally.

That complex is one to watch.

2026 will be known as "The Year WIthout a Winter".

DCA: 98, 100, 104, 100 BWI: 98, 100, 102, 100 IAD: 98, 100, 103, 99 SBY: 98, 100, 101, 100 RIC: 100, 100, 104, 100 Total Rain: 0.15

June 2026 finished with a mean temperature of 73.4° in New York City. That was 1.4° above normal (2.0° above the 1981-2010 baseline). July will start with a severe heatwave. The heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer with maximum temperatures peaking in the 100°-105° range. Some locally hotter temperatures are possible. Most of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas will see temperatures reach 100° or above during the height of the heatwave. Boston, Burlington, Philadelphia and Washington, DC could challenge their all-time records. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.37°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.196 today.

You have to use the 1961-1990 base period or earlier which was in effect for the 1997-1998 super El Niño to directly compare the actual temperatures during 2023-2024. Using a more recent 1991-2020 period will show smaller departures for 2023-2024. The warmest CONUS winter rankings below are based on an even older base period starting in 1895. The 2023-2024 super El Niño event was the #1 warmest CONUS winter since 1895. The 2015-2016 super El Niño was the #3 warmest winter. While the 1997-1998 super El Niño was the 9th warmest CONUS winter. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature December-February warmest winters since 1895 December 2023-February 2024 37.47°F 131 December 2025-February 2026 37.12°F 130 December 2015-February 2016 36.78°F 129 December 1999-February 2000 36.48°F 128 December 1991-February 1992 36.35°F 127 December 2011-February 2012 36.34°F 126 December 1998-February 1999 36.27°F 125 December 2019-February 2020 36.04°F 124 December 1997-February 1998 35.90°F 123 December 2016-February 2017 35.89°F 122 December 2001-February 2002 35.66°F 121 December 1994-February 1995 35.56°F 120 December 2005-February 2006 35.49°F 119 December 2004-February 2005 35.46°F 118 December 1953-February 1954 35.33°F 117 December 1933-February 1934 35.28°F 116 December 1982-February 1983 35.27°F 115 December 1952-February 1953 35.25°F 114 December 2022-February 2023 34.85°F 113 December 1920-February 1921 34.80°F 112 December 1980-February 1981 34.72°F 111* December 2021-February 2022 34.72°F 111* December 1975-February 1976 34.59°F 109

There might be daily storms in places. Particularly your area up into CNE. There’s a massive complex up in Quebec province that may crush you overnight

i hope the power grid collapses regionwide

Just think cool thoughts guys

.25” at my house, which is perfect for the gardens. I was actually expecting to get Steined all week.

I am pretty sure the heat will stick to the pavement, no matter the sun angle.

Come with me

^Vs the 61-90 average seems a little weird.

The more west based super El Niño in 2023-2024 had an even warmer winter than the east based 1997-1998 super El Niño. So exactly where the warmest SSTs end up with 2026-2027 that is forecast to be significantly stronger than both of those may not really matter that much. Plus I also don’t think the timing of how quickly the SSTs drop by the later portion of winter into spring will make much of a difference considering how record breaking the peak with this one will be.

I'm concerned the supercharged heat dome will be fueled by the Super El Nino and surge into the Polar Vortex.

Stein forcefield in full effect here?!?

Very humid today but only 83 for a high today.