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That's actually a nice spot to be at 7-8 days out. Room to move nw :)

Amen brother!!!!!

LMFAO. South would be shut down for weeks with that.

Keep backing up the SW west from over FL to Louisiana and we golden.

seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot

February 2013 was epic out here in Suffolk. I had 28”. Medford had 33” Somewhere in Connecticut had 40”.weather channel named the storm Nemo. Probably my favorite storm. It started as rain and turned to all snow by 2-3pm. reminiscing about this one

maybe u are a time traveler… u are awfully close to the true depiction

That energy digging southward over the western ridge is creating mini ridge out in front and that's problematic. Need that to be weaker or more spacing. Good thing is at this range that probably wont be the actual outcome. As is, it isnt that far from something good.

seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot

god that is so close

So what's the mechanism to bring it north and west besides model bias and weenie wishes?

Went negative tilt a little to late. Again really close

Exactly. The Rubber band is being stretched further and further, when it snaps back…boom.

It’s close it’s damn close. But no cigar

It does! Hope it works out for us. But per usual, we are left with a 0-80% chance of 0-27" of snow right now.

this is one of the few events that can actually trend north/west for us. I would say at 180 hours---we are looking pretty good if you know the GFS biases lol

Ya too early to have it show us getting crushed. Slowly reel it in over the next couple days.

18z GFS with the storm signal still there. Not a big event but nice to see it still there.

Ticking the right way still. OBX can have it this run

man--if this went negative just a few ticks earlier/more west

what?

Indeed. I agree. It is nice to have some things to track besides whether we will crack 50 or not though lol. We are lucky enough to have NWF opportunities in addition to the larger systems that come through vs those further east. I lived on the beach before moving up here and I remember getting excited just because it might get below freezing for a night or two. It was miserable.

My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.

the GFS AI shifted west a bit

WPC and NBM have backed down on precip. totals by an inch or so over most areas. That said, I think 3-4" is possible wherever the firehose sets up and if it stays put. RGEM, NAMs, and RAP are further south with the firehose bullseye than the globals have been until recently, towards your area. We'll see if we get a tick NW by tomorrow AM.