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If the WPO relaxes from its forecast values of -2.000 or below, other teleconnections can gain influence over the pattern. The EPS currently forecasts an EPO+/AO+/PNA-/NAO+ regime toward the end of its run. If the WPO rises, that could allow ridging to expand across the CONUS with warmth following after a few days lag. December 30-31, 1999: The December 30-31, 1999 composite 500 mb map is one example of how unfavorable teleconnections overwhelmed a weaker WPO-. Then, the WPO was still impressive (below -1.000) but it was not at the extreme values necessary to overwhelm the pattern. Milder conditions rapidly spread into the East. Despite much above normal temperatures to start January 2000, the month wound up colder than normal. Late January (January 24-27 timeframe) saw a major snowstorm in the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic region. For now, it looks to remain generally colder than normal through around December 20th. Nothing is cast in stone for the remainder of the month, though some temporary relaxation is plausible. IMO, the odds remain against a complete breakdown of the pattern and the onset of a sustained warm pattern during the closing 10-11 days of December. Still, it's worth watching the evolution of the guidance. I suspect that there could be an increased risk of a pattern breakdown after mid-January, which often happens during La Niña winters, but that's in the speculative range right now. The PNA could play a larger role in how January evolves.

That white protruding from PA in western Jersey isn't snow cover, is it?

Wolfie said its better therr are no bombs to track. Lol already tailgating?

The worst was 2007 when we had a great pack and we got a warm pouring rain the 24th into Christmas and wiped out what would have been a great start to winter.

After several 11-15 day warm ups have failed to materialize in the past few months, I remain skeptical of such warm ups in the near future. Of course that will change, and my guess as to when the next extended warm up will be is february. We may get mild for a week or so mid-Dec, but I think its only temporary. I drew in green below the next mjo wave to get out of the MC. There is a hint of this even within the 5N-5S band (its stronger with 15N-15S and thus more influential). So I wouldn’t be surprised to see that hint strengthen into a signal that’ll eventually play out and bring us back to colder weather in late Dec into Jan.

Thanks, I think...

Low of 29. Taking the kids to see Santa today up in Elizabeth Farms above Brickerville, never been before. Should be a solid winter day. Then a big game between the Packers and Bears. Go Pack!

To reiterate, there was zero snow on any paved surfaces Saturday morning. They were wet from the MELTED snow. Temps were above freezing when they salted, and would have naturally dried with sun all day and temps over 40 degrees. The only thing the salt did was get in dog's paws, go down the storm drains to give a shock load to the aquatic flora and fauna, increase salt content in drinking water sources, and get underneath your vehichle to initiate corrosion.

this month is toast beyond a lucky one off for NYC. Sad for a BN Dec. Enjoy the rain Thursday.

Pretty decent NAMing for parts of SW VA at 12z. Especially areas NE of Abington towards Wytheville.

Seeing the classic pattern in the high-res models of mountain snow, followed by a piedmont lull, and a NE NC jackpot.

Looks like winter this morning, all the trees, grass, and bushes are covered in rime ice, frost, frozen fog

Its slightly south of 6Z. Hopefully the northern trend stops

March will rock…patience!

It is. December also is a month for cutters. Deeper into winter while they still occur, they are less frequent. Unfortunately Kevin thinks it’s a winter month when it really isn’t a deep winter month, especially first half.

Ended up with ~4in. I’ll definitely take it.

The 3k NAM is a thing of beauty

One heck of an inversion.

impossible to predict anything with confidence past 5 days in this fast flowed pattern with very cold air and above average snow cover always to our north and west with the southern jet getting more involved in the pattern..............

Alright, I get that, but I think 20th on with a nice pack intact is pretty grinchy

Why can’t you do your own measurements? You had something more important to worry about other than snow??? I think not. You need to get your priorities straight.

Morning low of 1F. Couldn’t quite get below zero with the light snow and clouds lingering around into the overnight hours.

And I'm starting out at 34 lol. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk