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I would think something in between but we don't really have that. I would use kuchera with caution. But I would also take your qpf and go with something like a 13-15:1 as a cautionary start

ICON ensembles. Love that high. Verbatim less low signaling in WV/OHV

ICON long duration 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm

Wow. Icon slays. Gets eastern areas with the coastal. That’s how you get 12-18

soon: a kentucky mule

loopdy loop..

whats flat ice?

Lol I mentioned how rough it was earlier. Idk I have a suspicion this thing ain't ready for prime time but I guess I have to look closer at <48 hrs to see how it really fares. Or maybe we will get skunked.

Can.you please post the kuchera on that with a slightly more NE view?

Anyway, even the amped ICON has at least 3-5" for the entire Delmarva. That's a very respectable floor for any kind of winter storm for this area. Reframing my expectations for this one, and hoping for no significant ice accretion.

Listen man I'd hope its south considering this is its 18z run that ends with the sleet line through NOVA

Definitely a positive with this storm that there seems to be a floor of at least a decent event with the initial overrunning surge and potential for something really great if we can get this coastal to crank in time.

00z NBM, highest snow totals N/W of 95 which matches climo/sensible outcomes in these setups. LFG!

We fake that. Develops the secondary

We are so screwed.

Has this always been a Miller A storm? That's what it looks like on the ICON. Someone correct me.

haha

Okay, RGEM's confluence a hair souther

Half the damn country... One system Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

This thread has now been around for 11 years. Lol wow.

Yea Icon I don't think is very reliable but Kuchera about 18 for the city, around 2 feet around 84, also 2 feet for Boston.

sorry--i had not seen your name in a while....sorry for my comment. I thought you were new lol

Off topic, but since everyone is hanging in here, icon is sending a clipper into the flow midweek with this weekend storm acting as a 50/50 and the flow jammed up.

Icon is a beaut

I am glad you said that. I have noticed that same feature on other models as well...and it seemed like it could bleed into Chatty from there, but I couldn't remember. These big highs are capable of doing it.