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Beats my longest - 6 days from the Jan 1953 ice storm on the hills north and west from NYC. 2nd place is 101 hours from the Dec 18, 2023 gales/flood and 3rd was 90 hours in Jan 1998. We were fortunate in that last one - a single break between Brunswick Avenue and our place 400' away would've meant 2 weeks. (Our phone was out for 13 days.)

I think we may see 10%/45%/30% on new D2

You and PF may want to keep an eye on this.

If possible, 1941-1970 and 1961-1980 would be ideal.

Charlie you keep avoiding my question for the years I am highlighting in the chart 1927-1951. There are 16 years before 1942. To make my question clearer I updated the chart (see below) to add the delta between Allentown and Chesco. You again never answer the question so I will ask it again later. By the way in looking at the surrounding nearby stations at the Navy Yard and Point Breeze it looks clearly like opening of the more rural location with less runways and building etc. at the new PHL Airport resulted in the new site being 1.6 degrees colder than the neighboring Navy Yard in 1941 and continued to run at least 1 degree colder than Point Breeze every year through 1951. So you have to wonder why NCEI failed to warm the new PHL airport site during those years due to the station move to a more rural/colder location? But even without the likely need to warm PHL for those years - the facts remain the same PHL was and is always warmer than average Chesco in every single year except one (1943) ! So I will try again - a simple question why is all of Chester County altered and adjusted to an average temperature for 17 years during this period to colder than Allentown PA?? This is 2 counties north and 50 miles away? Not just Coatesville Charlie - the average of all of these stations. Sorry Charlie in no world should the average temperature for those 25 years have Allentown at 51.8 and the all Chesco Avg. colder at 51.7 Why is NCEI correct based on their adjustments that Chester County should be altered and adjusted to be colder than Allentown for a quarter of a century based on these chilling alterations to the data? Can you answer that?

I think they're going to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for Wednesday later today or tomorrow.

Beautiful Day for a Walk Warning in Effect! Can't beat today in mid July,,,,,ENJOY!

Hadley cell expansion is actually increasing the size and latitude (poleward) of subtropical ridging. Not *every ridge* but subtropical ridges. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/5249/2020/index.html But to your point, that’s also true that baseline GPH goes up as well. That’s why whenever I look at past years, I use the climate period that fits that year whenever possible. For example: 1972 -> use 1961-1990 1982 -> use 1971-2000 etc otherwise it’s difficult to pick out a signal when these past years have too much troughing using the much warmer 1991-2020 baseline. Unfortunately the tools that use the correct climate period are not always available.

Yea, we aren't getting a "high-end" season with an El Nino that potent even if everything worked out perfectly...just too great a volume of Miller A systems. I will bet anything that the signature storm of the season will jackpot the mid atlantic...maybe we still get slammed, but to a lesser extent. Our ceiling this season is normal to maybe about 10-12" above normal snowfall....like 1965-1966. But odds strongly favor less than that.

Nice. Haven't seen a good after-dark light show in years.

100*F+ seems fairly likely for Detroit tomorrow. About as perfect as a setup as you can get...

Let's say a 1938-style hurricane were to be possible (same track, strength, etc). There probably would be some people which take the threat seriously, however, I'm nervous the vast wouldn't. I would assume, however, mandatory evacuations would be ordered at least for the coast which would help but most people I would think probably evacuate inland, particularly if they have friends/family in-state. But I don't think how many people realize just how bad the power outages situation would be. This would be an order of magnitude (or two) greater than Oct. 2011. 80-90% of the state would be without power for weeks and a large portion of that probably at least a month and it could be longer if any substations are completely destroyed. From my understanding, much of the equipment is build overseas and you just can't fly that stuff over, its gotta be shipped by boat and that stuff takes time to build as well. Grocery stores will have generators but could end up being some shortages of food and even gas. It would be ugly

Might be a homebrew year later in the season with warm SSTs and troughs that start to develop and dig into Plains/Midwest.

Appreciate that...no worries at all. We're all very passionate about the weather.

Stein thru the week at a minimum. Very dry again

I can already tell you that people will meh a hurricane all the way until landfall. And then complain they didn’t get the eyewall.

Portland may get absolutely drilled.

Chris, thanks. A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then. In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q: -let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm -let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe. -That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough wouldn’t be stronger/weaker assuming this hypothetical example were near reality

Euro AI and its ensemble have been intriguing, and other guidance has been showing a signal for homebrew. The NHC hasn’t tagged it yet, but the Gulf/SE coast are worth watching in about a week.

It’s on the table. Euro AI has been leading the way but the other ensembles have a signal for something that pops off what’s likely a stalled front in the Gulf. Might get pulled up the coast, or if a trough isn’t there, steered west in the Gulf.

It looks like an unsettled pattern will continue this week into the weekend. For the Mountains, high temperatures should remain mostly in check throughout the period with daily storms. We'll need to monitor the weekend as there appears to be potential for a tropical disturbance attempting to organize along the Northern Gulf or off the West Coast of Florida along the stalled frontal boundary to our South.

No

It's a dangerous time... This is a perfect sort of historic storm unfolding. We've created a civility protected from the problems in the environment, meanwhile ... the relative advantages of that same protection does a couple of things that are big-time negative feedbacks. One ... blinds the same civility from experiencing, thus cannot as readily see nor believing the problem is real - "the until it is too late" trope unfortunately becomes most apropos. Contributing here, I firmly believe that the limitation of a humanity to dimensionalize at such large scales ... is also an offset competition to competency. Two, spoiled it's population (and leaders) into believing that not agreeing with science and empirical fact is an entitlement to do so - very odd. Fake news and the tongue-in-cheek "alternate facts" that began 20 some years ago, isn't just a party trope. It's a fucking major problem. And thus demonstrate no compunctions exercising entitlement whenever science informs their actions are the problem. (One + Two )/ 2 = the mathematics of brickery May also = a nice and tidy Fermi Paradox ... 2023 demonstrated that the Earth lags in GW; the metaphor 'under tension' fits. The rate at which the "Anthropocene" epoch has introduced it's loading into the system (you could argue this epoch began when "Lucy" first picked up a burning stick ... but the vast majority just in the last 3-or-so hundred years) has outpaced the system's ability to respond. After all, we are talking a whole planet. But that tension has been growing more and more taut. As soon as background competing offsets falter just a little bit? Booinnnng. That .5C sudden globular scaled temperature responses taking place all at once ( in the spring that year) was an planet restoring; unilaterally, all systems of ocean, air and quasi coupled ocean-air systems. Here's a thought ... when you consider the human experience, the event of a bomb going off is almost instant. If you think of the planet as experiencing along geologic time spans, the 2023 was just as instantaneous. That becomes an analog for a bomb going off. Whole planets rising a half degree C something never before observed - the lack of recognition as a phenomenon is ... again, I believe the scale is too big to comprehend by too many

After the dry slot in a near-perfect setup for snow I know better than to look into long term outlooks for winter lol. This is a region where it is always easy to fumble at the goal line.

We need this so bad.. I would love to.see peoples reactions around here.. I lost power for 10 days in 2011 and didn't bother me really.. that storm was beyond awesome.. once we started as snow and saw branches starting to sag.. i knew it was going to be something great.. almost constant shotgun blast living near the woods and seeing trees fall all over was awesome.. even had a tree on a power line catch fire.. i ended up calling it in and they said there was nothing they could do about it since they had so many calls. The neighborhood looked like a bomb went off the next morning.. Just a great experience overall and can't wait for another one..