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  2. Rhino16
    Are there any notable events where recovery occurred from showers earlier in the day? Is it something we struggle to do around here?
  3. high risk
    I think that’s reasonable, although climo says (and guidance agrees) that the best tornado threat will be even further south.
  4. Rhino16
    It seems like some of the 12z guidance shifted everything earlier in the day. It could be noise this far out, but it’s something to watch.
  5. high risk
    The high end potential is definitely there, but two things stand out 1) a clear trend towards earlier timing 2) a lot of guidance showing clouds and showers well ahead of the main forcing. With the right timing, the early convection could be supercells, but the trend towards an earlier event opens the door to insufficient time to recover after morning showers.
  6. tunafish
    The worst part about losing my pack before this event is having another round of mud.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    We'll see. I would favor DC and points south for torandoes, maybe some rogue QLCS thingy in MD through Central PA.
  8. dendrite
    I just mean I was higher than you, cooler than you during the warmup, and we ended up tied at 8” the other day. Not calling you out. Just surprised I was losing snow faster than you.
  9. high risk
    But is that too much shear for the very modest cape?
  10. Eskimo Joe
    70 - 125 kt shear on a neutral to negatively tilted trough in March is a recipe for a decent event.
  11. Gordo74
    Well don’t I look the fool for making fun of the ides of March storm and now I’ve been without power since 6pm with no ETA.
  12. powderfreak
    In rare form this morning, ha.
  13. snowman19
    Is the Spring Equinox going to get delayed on Friday?
  14. CT Valley Snowman
    Pretty good snow shower here on my walk. Windy, chilly day.
  15. Baum
    I’ll have what he’s having
  16. DavisStraight
    Looks like Central and Western Mass have some snow right now too.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    What did you have in the flizzard? I have a 10" in the that, and then avoided melting in the March 5-6 deal, as I added 1.5" of pack-preserving sleet, while rest of SNE rained and NNE had a few inches of fluff.
  18. CoastalWx
    How many Pope-A-Wheelies today?
  19. jbenedet
    Give it a rest. Posted like 30 times this morning for boredom and 1.5” of snow.
  20. CT Valley Snowman
    Wouldn't mind joining the Yoopers in the UP for a few days. Green Bay will have some mixing issues but a bit further N and NE, Damn.
  21. mreaves
    Snowing up here in Presque Isle. Delaying my drive home.
  22. Yardstickgozinya
    Not only will it likely get expanded, but once they better pinpoint, where the concentration of discrete cells will be, I expect an upgraded considering the anomalous kinematics. Make no mistake, there's been indications that there will be discrete convection in our area before the front can move through. That's what facilitated such an early thirty percent highlight.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, my locale is in a local valley, despite not being right on the river...I also noticed that I consistently come in a bit lower than the Culligan guy from Salem, NH, too.....I don't think he's misrepresenting, though I know you are just nut-crunching.
  24. goldsborosnow
    Discussion from SPC:
  25. Sciascia
    NAM Hi-res. Maybe not a big hitter for Chicago, but a good lolz run for me in Boone County.
  26. goldsborosnow
    Day 3 Enhanced Risk for much of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.
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