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Oh boy ….

Chances are those will be wrong. The evolution looks more like an El Nino than anything else as late January looks like the transition you'd often see begin to happen in that type of winter. I highly doubt we have a cold +PNA February

This is an interesting combo of indices: -WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA/+EPO. Maybe someone with better analog knowledge than I can show some examples. I think it's one that obviously favors New England a lot more than us. But I think it will remind us how the Pacific drives the bus for us more than the Atlantic. It hopefully keeps Canada cold though, so if we can get the EPO or PNA back toward neutral at least, that should quickly open the door back to winter precip chances.

At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990. No exaggeration, they are extremely ugly

They seem to think we're in an El Nino

I know. Ugly.

Let’s hope the weeklies are wrong. They basically furnace us the entire month of January, lol.

the Pope laughs at your forecast, your blog spot, and of course, at you.

Logic... not a favorite theme here at times

Theres a large pile at the mall here. That will be here all winter. But the rest, stay tuned lol.

You're welcome - glad the info was helpful. I'm kind of a nut about measuring accurately.

I drove out to Cunningham Falls this morning for a day of hiking at higher elevation. It wanted to extend the deep winter period one more day by headed out there. It was an interesting drive out there. The snow distribution from here to there was super spotty. As soon as I got on 97 north from Crofton the snow really thinned out. It didn't increase again until I got up on 70 and got into higher elevation. Once I got into the Frederick valley it got super thin and spotty again. As soon as I gained elevation going up into the mountains it increased again. Their was about 4" of powdery snow up at the fall. The falls are at like 1200'. It was 27 at that elevation. I hiked up to 1500' and suddenly it was above freezing up there. It was colder in the low spots between ridges. The falls were completely frozen.

I think I will still have snow *banks* even if grass is mostly visible. Also got a pile around 20’ tall at the local mall. Got to plow that sucker for the people doing donuts every Saturday night.

I realize I used to be real awful at times. Somehow after the 3 years of zeroing out I have chilled out a lot more lol. As for he upcoming pattern I know it sucks to warm up during Christmas but we know the cold can't hang on around here for the entire winter. If we can flip back for January that would be fine with me to get back in the game and hopefully real one in south of Virginia for once.

EOR

yeah eastern areas def have greatest potential to get temperatures well into the 50's and some stronger wind...perhaps even some convection too

Friday could rip especially in ern areas. You’ll have some daytime heating ahead of rain

Yea. I just don’t remember those storms as I was living in Seattle part of the time and missed them. GHDI was better here in GRR (though still a little short of the forecast with 15” verified as opposed 18” forecast) while GHDII was more concentrated along I-94 with lighter totals north (8-12”).

31 at 4pm. This view will be gone in the next 24 hours, but nice while it lasted.

18z NAM and ICON trend wetter for WOTBR for Thursday night. Hopefully, this is a trend toward more precipitation to alleviate the drought.

After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter.

I didnt say he isn't, just pointing that out. GHD1 was still a big storm here...it just failed to reach expectations in SE MI. Actually boggles my mind that this bust is still talked about with everything thats happened in the 15 years since. Its not like we expected 3 feet and got 0, we expected 12-18" and got 8-11" GHDII (16.7" DTW) and Jan 22 2005 (12.2") were huge storms at Detroit with plenty of arctic air around...to say nothing of the insanity of Jan 6, 2014. Following nearly 11" of snow temps dropped to -14° in hours.

Southern is an OK forum, I post occasionally, but I cannot stand the look and feel of the site. It’s brutal to me. There are good posters there and a lot of folks who post in both but I too wish we could get some back who’ve left here. It’s quite the spectacle to go over there if Raleigh is getting screwed by a storm. If you think the Raleigh folks here are bad it’s even worse there. They have a lot of Charlotte posters too which I appreciate as someone who lived there for a long time after college

From Ohio Valley Weather Center: [Tue 12/16/25 215pm EST] Today I will focus on the upper-level pattern at 500 mb (18000 feet). While there is some let up, focus on the 500 mb heights. Notice the tendency for higher heights to start building up into Alaska and slowly spreading into Greenland. Here is the caption for Friday morning. Notice the dive of colder air into the area, whereas just a handful of days ago, this was not shown. Models missed this. (Inage 1) Notice another piece coming in for Sunday into Monday. A lobe of cold comes through. Another instance where the model missed this a few days ago. Now, it seems to be sensing colder air. Again, higher heights into Alaska and NW Canada and up into Greenland, a bit. By no means, perfect, but modest enough to dump a batch of cold air in the region, again. (Image 2) So, assuming models will indeed miss Friday and catching on now, then missing another piece Sunday/Monday, it is hard to trust models past a handful of days. So, while it will not be as cold over the next week to ten days, if models are struggling in the medium range, there is no reason to trust models past 6 or 7 days. The tendency is for the model to keep the vortex stretched across Canada and central and eastern Russia, which implies colder air to spill into the central and east. I believe the models are mishandling things, and each subsequent run, the models slowly catch something and once inside 3 or 4 days, you see the change.