All Activity

It looks like officially NYC got more snow than BOS. But the greater Boston area received about the same amount of snow as the metro NYC area. It sure didn't look like that would happen 2 or 3 days ago.

What type of gauge do you have Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The old Euro-ETA combo. A deadly accurate force back in the day didn’t again for one final time time last night

Either way, a VERY respectable anomaly. From a historical standpoint, this could wind up warmer than any December prior to 2015 if PRISM is close. Not sure what's going on with recent Decembers. 3 of the past 4 were even warmer. So from a historical standpoint, EXTREMELY impressive, but from the vantage point of recent years, pretty ho-hum national anomaly. It doesn't appear to be data error, because the USCRN network suggests recent Decembers were even warmer than given by the nClimDiv numbers.

Don't ignore the NAM inside 48 hours. Yes, it's prone to bigger run-to-run shifts than the globals, but its multi-run trends are meaningful. And it wins more often than any other model when it's a perceived outlier. And to counter potential false memories, the NAM 36 hours ago had some support from the ECM. When the short range models plus the UK and others started to follow suit, it should have gotten more attention. This really could have been better forecasted if people hadn't ignored the best short range model we have for this kind of forecast. In any case, most of us woke up to a beautiful morning today!

This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models.

I bit the bullet and picked up a subscription for the PRISM estimates. It's estimating 2.76F through Christmas day, but we've been adding 0.5F per day lately. Extrapolating through yesterday, PRISM would probably have us up to ~+3.2F for the month to date.

Not bad for December 16.6"ish seasonal total... 1.0 or so was in November

January 29, 2022.

So are we now not optimistic for January?

Yes, he does get upset when someone comes at him. But imagine having so many people coming at you all the time, you're bound to have a snapback. I've actually messaged him a couple times and told him don't let the comments get to you. Hey, I was the same way on our blog here. I would get defensive or try to defend myself or other people ( If you remember ). I've pretty much Stopped doing that because I realize people are going to do what they're going to do, and I can't control what people say or do. Anyway, I still respect him and like what he has to say. Just my thoughts

Looks like 1.5 miles SE of ridge was the winner in suffolk. NOAA reporting 8” there. around 14” for me on the year and it’s still December. If you told me that in October I’d have laughed

So at the end of the day these models are only useful inside 12 hours like the hrrr. 72 hours out it was jackpotting Baltimore

https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models/?model=era5&base=ptype&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=1996010100 ERA 5 reanalysis

Wonder if we can get on the board for January w the front Thursday/Friday next week

I wouldn't say you were too high for Hartford county. Maybe north and northeastern Hartford county fell just shy of 6", southwest-southern Harford county were well within the range close to the high end of that range. Great job

He’s cocky too. He’s gone after me for a few things and I just LOL’d.

This. The NS dominance inherent in a nina can always break your heart even in a good look. Potential is always the emotional danger zone for snow weenies...gotta wonder if now is a good time to resolve to just kinda mentally take your hands off and let things happen. Speaking of 96'...I wanted to know about the exact storm track and exactly how that happened. Does a diagram/video exist of how it came together? (I'd love to see how the ns and ss were able to come together in a nina in time for us, lol)

The 18Z RRFS was pretty close on the sleet idea too. It had the line briefly over NYC in the evening for an hour or two. So at least it seems the RRFS is better than the HRRR on warm advection aloft.

I checked Mount Holly's forecast area and I was surprised my total was pretty much tied for the highest around. I had exactly 4 inches.

lots? i saw 2. Thanks for the new preston report, i actually included a new preston report from cocorahs and it was exactly 9.9, maybe thats him

Official tally here is .3” of sleet and ice off of .33” liquid.

So true RJ I just didn't want to go through the whole history of decades of under measurements for one disgruntled poster. You know my history all too well.

Getting a little burst of flurries. 29.7F

Yes, my wife takes our kids to that place fairly often.