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Pretty certain that the morning soaker will wrap up by midday or early afternoon. Then we go into scattered shower mode, and there is a clear convective threat around dinner time into the early evening. The low level shear will support rotation, but will any of the storms be surface-based? It still looks like the best chance at some modest instability will be over central and southern VA and possible the lower Eastern Shore. I'll be happy with some thunder and lightning.

Some models hinting at a shaft/split-screw area between heavy rain in PA and offshore. Should be decent rain NW of us given upslope moist E flow.

Flood warnings popping up all over Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Not good. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Flash flooding warnings popping up everywhere now.

Frost possible next weekend?

5.5". Rates between 1/2-1" an hour consistently since I got home at 7:30. Fortunately no wind at all here.

4.65. 1.78 in 2 hours. Bit of a lull but that next batch could be bad if it doesn't miss east

Yup. Got the alert call and text on that one. Good down hill. .

Under a flood warning now in all of Rutherford. Sitting at 3.56” here with .5” in the last 40 ish minutes. .

There would have to be rapid ENSO cooling for that to happen.

Flash flooding warning for McDowell county now.

Apparently water is coming across temporary roads in the Lake Lure area.

Flash flooding warning for Chimney Rock and Lake Lure areas...

This SAR image clearly shows a sting jet, which is a characteristic of a PT/ET low pressure, not a TC. Also, prior to landfall, there was no coherent, focused wind center. It was quite elongated. So despite the satellite appearance w/ all the deep convection, structurally one could argue it had transitioned to more PT/ET than tropical prior to landfall. That sudden jump of pressure up 12 mb to 970 on recon when it has been holding steady 958-960 mb also indicates a rapid change structurally to away from tropical status. That suggested a distinct cool/dry air penetration into the core (front). Once that happens, a system is PT/ET. Note: SAR shows sustained winds max 110 kt. The SAR tends to have high bias. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php?year=2026&storm=AL092026_ISAIAS I have always said when a system is transitions like this, there should be a ramp down to subtropical status before PT/ET status. Why not? If a system can go from ET to ST to tropical, there is absolute no reason to think it can not work the other way. This is what should have been done for Sandy for its landfall. A TC rarely goes instant PT/ET in just 6 hr. It is *process* that takes time. And I don't want to hear about the messaging issue. ST storms get names just like tropical storms, and the watches and warnings are the same ST or tropical. In fact, a few years ago, JTWC started assigning operationally ST status as systems transitioned from TC.

Monitor your NC mountain peeps if you have any. Confirmed landslides being broadcast. Sirens activated

Confirmed landslide around 226 and Little Switzerland area. LOTS more rain still to come. Going to sketchy for you hills and mountain folks I'm afraid.

There could be brief deviations westward, just not expecting a nearly month long deviation like we saw in 2023-2024. The fact that we shut down forcing west of the dateline already and we have a hyperactive EPac hurricane season is notable. 97-98 didn’t even do that this early.

Sounds like things are deteriorating fast. Flood Sirens going off in Rutherford county for the Falls Creek area.

Just crossed over the 5" mark up here on the mountain near Seven Devils. Been absolutely pouring for the last few hours now. Hope all you folks in the foothills are staying safe.