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Canadian back to a scraper. Big step back from 12z. Im afraid we are moving towards a consensus. Gfs improved, and the models that were pretty good are moving towards the gfs and meeting in the middle, which amours to very little snow

CMC pretty heavy band of snow in DC... probably an inch an hour?

I was speculating where I think this is heading, not summarizing what all models are showing. I hope some of the wetter AI model solutions are right. But even they are relatively dry outside of southeastern areas. And they haven't shown a clear positive trend either. The trof is positively tilted and the PV is pretty far east. That's not a great height field orientation to work with... especially as we approach the short range.

This looks like a 1-3 inch snowfall.

RGEM looked pretty darn good so not surprised since they are essentially the same. GFS, ICON, RGEM all good for DC, at least. Ways to go but pretty good 00z despite how quiet it is in here

CMC Looks pretty nice

Ignoring all the AI models?

Think we're getting close to some goalposts here or could this still improve some?

I don't think the 0z NAM is much better aloft, if at all, than 18z. The RGEM is a little worse. The GFS and ICON are a little better. Kind of a wash so far for 0z. I think this is heading towards a scraper or light event unless we see clear positive trends very soon.

Based on recent runs it appears there will be a pretty narrow zone with strong lift as modeled. Not the best outcome for the mental health of our subforum lol.

With RIC at 6", they could realistically get 1-2" on Friday and 2-4" on Sunday, and then they've overachieved climo. lol

Cautiously optimistic. See what it looks like Friday

That would do the entire eastern side of Vermont some good.

If everything goes wrong for northern areas this weekend, central Virginia could conceivably have 15” of snow on Dec 14

Looks like the machines are gonna win this. GFS looks to be caving.

I remember taking a trip for work up to a paper mill north of Montreal that spring. The damage was stunning.

yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing

Looks pretty significant at 500 though.

And gfs is better but not there yet. At least it shows snow now for NYC LOL

Gfs keeps its thin stripe. A little north from 18z

Plenty of time

For once in my life I actually don’t want it to snow too much Friday…lol . We are throwing a big Christmas Party on Sat and may affect turnout if roads get hit again I feel bad for even saying this…..haha

I could see a NAM low developing and maybe clipping southern southeastern zones as it’s blowing up going out - NW bias notwithstanding. But then we fill back in with radar with inverted trough of some sort because… that’s a very deep polar core coming down at mid/upper levels that’s gonna generate a ton of instability, even in this cold air

Marginally so. At least it’s not worse. Needs a good amount of work though

Gfs better