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Probably just the 3k NAM and its elevation issues...but the 3k put 40+" in the Smokies. That is Sierra Nevada level stuff.

12z 3k NAM not doing it. FV3 not doing it as well, LP pushes east and precip gets sucked out to see. both runs get some bands in to the southside but it may not add to much due to the dry air. All in on the NAM! What could go wrong?

yep toss it. Very all over the place. I think now is the time to just start whatever "bring the snow" ritual you have

We are required to use the NBM for the official forecast. Through collaboration though we can edit that if it is significant enough. It is quite the touchy new policy that many are not happy with. It basically adds more work than saving time as we were told it would. NBM has its flaws plus it always lags behind at least one model cycle.

So, with just 2 days left in the month I did a quick analysis to put into perspective how cold these first 2 months of the winter season have been across the Philly burbs of Chester County. This January is on pace to be a top 26 all-time cold January across 133 years of climate data since 1893. It is also our coldest first month of the year since 2014 It will also be a Top 20 all-time cold December/January start to winter. Plus, our coldest start to winter since 2010-11.

Yep just saw that. So this is what winter is really like...

I think it's safe to say that most folks in the triangle (and especially Wake) will not see any substantial snow until lunch time or after... Which is going to have a lot of people around here saying, "Where is the snow!?" Trends show much of our snow coming from the coastal low

Im trying to not let bias kick in, but it’s only increased its run to run variability closer to game time and each run differs from consensus drawn by much better models.

Last fall, I didn't anticipate the strong PV accompanying the +TNH to decouple from the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redvelope for early March. I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.

Understandable... I got 20ish inches in December in several smaller events... I love good storms but will take pack refreshers

WXII

For sanity of us all don't really pay attention to the exact amounts on models exp the NAM. Just use them for the trends. The location of the bands is likely to be within the area of best forcing from the coastal formation.

If the NAM 3k verifies central South Carolina rejoices and North Carolina has tons of milk that goes bad. This would extend the 2608 day streak in Greensboro of no snow falls above 4 inches .

Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday. My bad...agree.

Spectrum

I think something messed the 12k up. Same location on the 12k and 3k .

3k NAM at 12z crushes CAE

Looks as if the 3k has some issues. Way too different than 12k, and most other model guidance.

Now can we toss the NAM? It’s all over the damn place.

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up.

I'd just assume be done with it if that's the case, but no choice.

Needless to say, I don’t think the nam has a clue where the banding is going to set up

Doesn't make sense for the 3K NAM to be that different than 12K. Yes, I know it is higher resolution, but that's way too much of a difference. So either the 3K is way too low or the 12K is way too high.

okay can we do a contest you start it Roger where we guess the snow Totals for Central Park for winter 2025-26. Winner gets $100 in bitcoin