All Activity

Is Burt Reynolds with you there?

A warmer Canada is colder than Tolland.

effects of the ssw already being felt, normally models would come out earlier starting the second week of november

Correct - plus all these above average temp months in a row and this abnormally long stretch of spring/summer like weather the last couple of weeks is giving some folks a false sense of security that EL NINO will protect us from the cold and snow well into winter..............

Long range gfs brings down the cold

December is so far away . No one has a clue yet that far. Long range forecasting hasn't been right in years.

Models come out earlier tomorrow

Judah Cohen says the models don't have a handle on this set up yet - he has an interview video which I can't post here for some reason on FOX. He is not sure what might happen yet going into December.

LR ext modeling (Euro and GFS) are starting to show a cool down(significant?) in the last week of November to BN temps. Shoulder season modeling should be taken with a grain of salt FWIW. However, both show winter arriving on time ironically (after all of this warm wx). LR ext modeling was wrong about October being cold, so buyer beware!

Good luck!!

My Dec 22nd first snowfall prediction would line up with that. .

This post from 10/23 is aging well. Per Don post above and looking at LR guidance not seeing much if any chance of CP getting to 32 or below before 3rd week of November and at this point the odds inching up for December,

Despite the historical earliest SSW and accompanying historically weak early Nov 10 hPa/60N winds, the 60-90N 10 hPa avg temp. is only going to rise ~5C and stay well below the record warmest for early Nov. So, it’s a mixed bag of sorts.

You can still get some cooler air, even with above normal temps in Canada

Nice day to head out on the Charles for some hunting.

We have talked about this and it's the recent why I am employing the "reversal" terminology moving forward, rather than SSW to avoid these scientific inconsistencies.

Where is this cold air coming from with Canada so hot ?

On a national level, of course given the background warming in conjunction with how much OHC as built up to trigger this unprecedented El Niño, but I'm not concerned with that....no one in their right mind is disputing the notion of a very mild season in the DJFM seasonal mean. I don't think the folks like biking, who laugh at each one of my insights, have really wrapped their minds around what I am saying. What I am focused on is that the prospects for a large east coast winter storm should be heightened relative to 2023 and probably even 2015 given the absence of MC convective forcing. Yes, this season is more east-based than 2015....but it's also less MC-based, as well. You can't obsess over the background warming and neglect the implications of having absolutely no convection in the MC because it means that source of destructive interference for major east coast cyclogenesis is removed during those fleeting colder intervals. I feel as though you are playing with fire if you disregard the prospects for any major winter weather along the east coast with a STJ that potent in conjunction with all CP and EP forcing....the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.

Seems Sus stopping mowing end of September.

Preety big brush fire few miles from here. Forest service heli scooping water from Coffee Pond Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Interesting! My wife and I yesterday said it’s a muted color season around HBG.

"Upstate CT"??? LOL

November is poised to get off to a balmy start in the New York City area. However, around November 10th +/- few days it could turn briefly cooler. That shows up on the latest ECMWF ensembles. It is also consistent with the weekly guidance. The biggest uncertainty concerns the forecast weakening/possible split of the polar vortex toward mid-November. However, the ensembles favor a rapid recovery suggesting that the effects could be short-lived. Meanwhile a historically strong El Niño continues to strengthen. It will likely peak in November or possibly December.

Not directed at you Don, just in general.. I wish the scientific ambit would elect to place a "P" on SSW as a suffix, for/if/when an intrusion of warming into the PV/stratospheric pressure coordinates is proven ( crucially ) to be a downward "P"ropagating event. There is a life cycle to the SSW --> -AO, that requires some 20 to 30 days to complete. Whether this is that, or just an intrusion that quickly disappears ... still remains to be seen. This needs to be factored into this "suspected" intrusion event and I'm not reading anywhere, in or outside this social media ... like that is in the gears of reasoning. First of all, the AO is progged currently at CPC to go ~ -.75 SD over this next week. There is no antecedent SSW/propagating downward phenomenon prior to that occurring. Should this 10 mb warm node and any vortex collapse become resonate ( downward radiating through the vortex) .... your looking at the end of November before any AO mode response - when considering the proven total SSW phenology. I just suspect that SSW is being blurred in the proper usage of why Sudden Stratospheric Warming was originally identified. Since there are intrusion events that don't down well, yeah... technically it's a warming in the stratosphere that is/was rather expedient in how it manifested. But semantically... and really machine wise, if you want an SSW to correlate to winter at mid latitude, it has to go thru 20+ day downward evolution, then the -AO happens. And I still don't see that very convincingly modeled in the GFS. What I do see occurring is both aft of present and continuing in the models, a warmer than normal static 70 to 100 hPa level state. I'm willing to hunch pretty heavily that it's CC related... This looks more like a pan-dimensional aspect than an intrusion - aside from the fact that it's emerging from the bottom up. As well, it is/has vastly predated(s) the canonical 'disruption season'.