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Nam 0z run Saturday first wave way north, in my opinion this will make the frontal boundary way more west for Sundays developing storm! Let's see the run isn't even near done!✅

Yeah, noticed that. It just scattered the Shield out after getting past I-75. Could be suggesting a mild tounge of sorts with maybe a mix or some rain . I didn't look at QPF . It would answer to whether that's the Case. A couple other Models are showing the quick drop off as well.

nam is way NW with the moisture. Maybe that helps Sunday night

Kickers, shitstreaks, one destructive battle after another

I want to marry him

That was rough

Won't last long but <1/4 mile in heavy snow right now. Very quickly whitened up the ground. Wish this could stay around another 6+ hours lol.

Denver: warmest December since 1933 Fort Collins: record warmest December

Of course…….I’m supposed to travel to Nashville next weekend. .

Excellent. Now we’re cooking.

Ok! Leno with a beauty! It’s close at least now.

Reached an afternoon High of 24 here. Had there been Snow Cover it would of stayed in the Teens. Currently 15.

I think a lot of all the angst comes down to one thing. Expectations. We watch the pattern, it is good. Something shows up 2 weeks out, awesome. Next run shows 15-20 inches in spots and many getting 7-12, people start buying in. It closes to 10 days, and although one (or even two) models show SOMETHING, it isn't the 'big one' and those expectations start to slid. Then *poof* one model has a snizzlefest, majority go OTS and one is a cutter, chaos. A minor model brings something back at day 4, then a major shows promise, we buy in again. Day two we have cold/dry air as there isn't even a storm anymore. I think the best thing (and what I have decided to do) is watch but don't buy in until day 4 at max, and then only if half the models have SOMETHING showing that appears to have a bit of consistency.

I don't understand the NAM just pasting northern Middle and S Kentucky, then a hole just develops over me and @Kentucky. Someone in another forum mentioned that the precip holes were a known NAM mistake. I hope that's correct. Of course the NAM is on an island anyway with the system so who knows what will happen.

We will appreciate it that much more when the next good stretch of model wins return as good winters turn great. Just have to MC Hammer pray it comes back in our lifetimes…

00Z NAM looks a little warmer across NC than the 18Z

I would wake up and a thread went from page 14 to 47 overnight. That’s when you knew you had a good 0z cycle. Now, I go to bed with things looking hopeful (like last night) only to open my phone’s weather app upon waking up to see a partly cloudy icon on the day of the supposed storm.

Just got my first look at models since the 06 run. This winter blows. lol

You and Brett lived through the best 18 year period of snow in southeast MA on record. ‘01-‘18 is the GOAT. As someone who deeply studied MA snow climatology growing up and even after my college years, it still boggles my mind. Spending most of it on the forums was a privilege.

namsky loading

Yes, especially for the Euro ensembles which arrive so much later than the GEFS and GEPS.

I know that there is a lot of frustration in this thread, and I completely get it, but the "the models suck way more than they used to crowd" (and it's only a few people) really needs to go take a deep breath. Attached are two 500mb GFS forecasts for the same valid time, made 12 hours apart. On the hemispheric scale, they're pretty freaking similar. Unfortunately, there are some minor differences with the handling of the eastern trough, at least partially driven the trailing wave over the upper Midwest. And UGH - those differences are enough to change the track of the east coast low by about 150 miles, and the resulting impact on the band of significant weather is the difference between us having 4" of snow or a partly cloudy day. We all want these perfect fat and wet southern stream systems that we can easily track for days with minimal stress, but the reality is that northern stream systems are dicey as hell. They're small, and they're initialized in data sparse regions. I looked at the two features that will drive the Sunday "event", and the lead wave yesterday broke off of a vortex in central Canada, and I could barely trace the trailing wave back to the polar regions. The small changes in the handling of those features unfortunately cause major changes in the outcome for us. And it should be noted while not every modeling system has shown a good event here Sunday with that trough, they have all bounced around a lot with those two waves and the resulting impact on east coast low formation and associated precip stripe. That speaks to the incredible challenges of complicated northern stream evolution. There is where ensembles help a lot, but we really need to move away from using means (at least inside of Day 5) and focus more on exceedance probabilities, because a handful of snowy solutions among a large number of dry ones can really influence the mean value. Let's hope that we get buried before Valentine's Day so that any further complicated Miller Bs don't cause the chaos in this forum that this one has.

Damn. Seems a waste of cold air...and emotional well-being.

closer to fine...not the winter crew

Speaking of 2010, was that the storm where someone posted a sign on here and we got the storm? Maybe pull that out now...