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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    We can all agree 1995-1996 was in incredible winter, but there was a notable deviation from that pattern during the middle portion of January.
  3. dwagner88
    The rain is going to be very widespread to the east of the center. The shear is going to decouple the surface and ULL's pretty quickly after landfall. Other than the normal downsloped areas around the US411 corridor, the rain should be really widespread unless the surface low goes way east over the Carolinas. I noticed the physical models upped our rainfall in the southern valley from 1-2" into the 2-4" range. That's more in line with what I expected even given the fast forward motion. Lots of forcing available to squeeze that moisture out.
  4. Met1985
    Yeah I've been reading that may be the biggest problem with moisture heading this way is that convection along the coast will rob us.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    You're right...I guess Ayer, MA will have to settle for 2"/hr instead of the 6" in 1997...then again, there is more moisture available in the warmer air...
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    More often than not, sure...but as you know, there are shorter-term deviations from the longer term seasonal mean. On Tuesday December 23rd, 1997 - A snowstorm was forecasted to be fast-moving and produce light snow across New England slowed down and intensified dumping nearly two feet on some parts of the regio
  7. forkyfork
    this event is stronger and further east plus we have 30 years of warming on top of it. come on man
  8. mitchnick
    Yep. I said as much in the MA forum the other day. I know how it rolls down here.
  9. forkyfork
    my point exactly. the pac jet wouldn't allow for any cold highs where we needed them
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1997-1998 was more favorable early on because it was unique in the sense that occurred during a strong easterly QBO in conjunction with the low and ascending portion of the solar cycle. This season will undoubtedly be more hostile early on, but probably more favorable later in the season given the westerly QBO/descending solar that is far more common during intense episodes of warm ENSO.
  11. forkyfork
    whatever you need to tell yourself
  12. jm1220
    Wonder if you can even call that a halfacane, maybe thirdacane?
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  14. Itstrainingtime
    Their expected rainfall for PA has been reduced on each of the last 4 cycles they've put out. Discouraging. Yesterday morning, the entire southern half of PA was in the 1.5"+ area. (purple shading)
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    How did this one work out in SNE?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm surprised, usually low pressure over SE Canada works out well on the east coast.
  17. forkyfork
    drip drop
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  19. forkyfork
    all rain
  20. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  21. forkyfork
    1998 couldn't get a snowstorm because the pacific jet would not allow enough cold to build in canada. this event is even more unfavorable than that one
  22. forkyfork
    none of the east coast storms will be cold enough for snow
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's also important not to be too dialectical in our thought process, as it's human instinct to focus on snow/rain as binary events, but the truth is that in all likelihood they often won't be this season. Several 2-5"ers followed by IP and rain still counts towards the seasonal total.
  24. dailylurker
    I was up there in January, 2025 when It was -5 with about 10" on the ground. It was awesome.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would make sense to me and is consistent with my forecast.....RONI should still lag in the seasonal mean by around .2 to .4, but may get closer than that late.
  26. LakePaste25
    Once we see that subsurface cool pool out in the W pac upwell some more (probably sometime later this winter), we could see RONI catch up to ONI.
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