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GFS continues to rain on the sustained cold parade. It is finding new and creative ways to destroy the block

What is extraordinary is my hourlies from WUN show snow falling every hour til 2pm on Jan 1!! A hour won't go by without flakes for the rest of the year...

I’m down with running back January 3rd of last year. Sorta funny how that squall kicked off an active period too!

Let's not forget it's the GooFuS.

It’s a goddamn shame.

I'm all for it, but I think to get meaningful cold in the SE that AK trough needs to exit stage left

I wonder if 0z Euro doubles down? Maybe we(SNE) win if they both can give us a nice big coastal from entirely different patterns….

I know we are dealing w/ 10 days out, but the difference between the GFS and ECMWF op is immense. I attached the 30/00z GFS and the 29/12z ECMWF 500H/850T anomalies VT 18z Jan 8. They could not be any more different. The GFS has split flow w/ no polar jet present, just STJ and 500 heights above 540 all of the CONUS. 850 temps above avg most of the country and a large part of Canada. The ECMWF, OTOH, has a huge polar jet presence merging w/ the STJ and very cold ern US and mild wrn US. In addition, the GFS has little blocking near Greenland, while the ECMWF is through the roof! What's funny is that either of these patterns could give a "CoastalWx Biggie" to the NEUS. GFS pattern suggests more Miller A and ECMWF suggests more Miller B! Odd. Which one will "win?!"

The final third of Jan will be rockin'.

Airport area getting heavy band

This might be the most important January since 2016.

I know that we're all chasing big dogs, but this would be a nice start to 2026 if it happens. NAM Nest and RGEM aren't as tasty as the HiRes FV3, but they all have the idea of some sort of quick-hitting band right on the front.

My driveway has been a cleats only zone since last night.

Yup so is my driveway and walk, Awful.

Usually, I chastise how much salt the town uses but glad they were out tonight. Side streets, but especially sidewalks, are going to be a disaster tomorrow.

Going to be a skating rink, Not enough snow falling to help out.

My dog is outside barking, so I go outside to get him and am surprised to see a flash of lightning to my NW! Does anyone have flurries or anything?

Already down to 26° here. Everything frozen. Should be glacial in the morning.

back in my day, folks would've been banned for this lol

if i see fantasy blue over my house, i call it a hit. i have no standards lol. the GFS is a hit in my book

We may have different definitions of "teeing up a hit". The h5 is way too large and not amplified.

our goat is washed :(

Block broke down. HP runs away and low tracks west. No coastal redevelopment in that scenario. We got a few more runs to go.

GFS teeing another hit up. Thermals TBD

I don't like that +EPO