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yeah - we need precip in a bad way.

His earlier forecast was predicted on the warm pool being moved east, which he says is starting to look unlikely

sucker hole here, but likely too warm anyways

Indeed, this combo has been a rarity in at least Dec. Looking at history for Dec, I looked to see the last time there was a strong -WPO dominating with a neutral or +EPO. It looks per the current December’s numbers that there will end up a strong -WPO while there will probably be a weak +EPO average (with the 3 +EPO periods averaging longer than the 3 -EPO periods). The last half month+ long period within Decs when there was anything similar was the first half of 1995 (extreme -WPO and weak +EPO), the first half of 1966 (very strong -EPO and neutral EPO), and Dec 7-23, 1956 (extreme -WPO and moderate +EPO). Over a shorter timeframe, Dec 1-10 of 2012 had a very strong -WPO while there was a moderate +EPO.

48 here at 11 am, 47 now

Only about 45-46 here as well. Quite windy today though so there's quite the wind chill

If it turns out like the last one, some of us up here would surprise with 6". Can it happen twice in a row?

Only 46 at my stations (46.6 & 46.4), currently 45 at both.

It’s such a sorry attempt at trolling. A week ago there was north to south snow cover from Maine to Virginia and east to west snow cover from the Cape through the northern tier to Montana. Christmas will torch in the south and part of the Midwest, but it hasn’t been extended fall for many in the U.S. this December. Quite the opposite.

Uphill battle every year for snow in the south with cards stacked against us from climo but this looks like a total disaster heading into January. This isn’t the reset we were thinking a week ago, this looks like our worst fears realized and a switch to full on Nina winter. With the cold leaving Canada we’re talking weeks of step down to get cold enough to talk winter weather at a minimum. And that’s assuming something flips. I’m typically not a mid season cliff diver but I haven’t seen anything trending right over the last week. Add in STJ is dead and will remain that way unless pacific relaxes which is a pipe dream at this point. Need some hope at some point before the calendar flips to 2026

Edit: It's still sunny here at 11:45a

probably reached todays (shortest day) high of 49 as clouds have settled in from the SW

We spiked to 48.4 at 9:40 am and are down 2 degrees since. That's been happening a lot recently with the max, or at least a secondary max before 10am. I have no explanation for why. I noticed the same on a couple of other local sensors.

If there is an IVT, coastal Maine might clean up.

Nice. It’s the Icon, but it’s nice.

Yeah I was surprised how warm it felt this morning, felt like Spring compared to the cold we've had recently. Webb seems to think we're in for a warm winter unless the pacific has a big shake up.

You sir, are a fraud. Let’s ask how NNE is doing so far this December? In case you don’t know, quite possibly the best and most snow on record for December, and we still have 10 days left. Mount Mansfield snow stake is/was at record levels. So as I said, you are a fraud.

http://youtube.com/post/UgkxqJNruw0VV6CFUpiaAINruvu2TBBBpsrK?si=Uf-dMFelpUCGyPJG

I'll double your exactly and agree! This may be a little off-topic, but what you allude to about modes of thinking is the reason I roll my eyes when I hear people say how 2015-16 was totally sucky and a torch except for the one big storm in January. Well...that's a rather large "exception" ("Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?")!! Not to mention, I believe that thinking is skewed by the ridiculous month-long torch in December, which averaged +8 to +10 for the month across the area. But take a look at January and February, at just DCA for example. We were 2-3 degrees colder than normal in January and about normal (very slightly below) in February. Yeah, the last week or so of that February got warm, but let's not pretend that the big January blizzard was the only chance we had and everything else was wall-to-wall torch. We did get a rather interesting event around Presidents' Day, ice/snow, that seems to slip under the radar in recalling that season. Did we have other chances in the 6 week period from early January to mid-late February? Maybe, I don't exactly recall...but I bet if we got just one more moderate advisory or warning-level event people wouldn't be saying it was a failure "except for one event". Heck, I still like the winter of 2006-07...after a warm December and first part of January, things flipped and we had an extremely cold February. Yeah, we missed out on big snow for that Valentine's Day (but 3" sleet and ice followed by very cold!), but we did have chances and I still like that season even though it was below normal in terms of actual snow. Or even 2014-15...sucky until Valentine's Day that year, and we had a concentrated 3-4 week period of intense winter! But people don't talk about how that winter was all crap "other than..."

Big guidance beat today with some spots sneaking in a 50° high so far. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 50 21 32 W18G29

ICON on the juicier side of 12z guidance I agree with Wiz that there be decent fronto pushing through the area.

The cruel irony about a -NAO with a raging Aleutian ridge is we’re going to be warm and wet. We’ll finally have a mechanism for digging and getting the moisture here.