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All guidance looks smoother and less perturbed... Cleaner 500mb ridge, one that's also 3 to 5 dm larger in both the x-y plain, and z coordinate integrals just from objective chart. Nice doom now to rely on for communication and clarity, and since 500 mb is the only metric that really counts, there's no cause or reason not to hype the hell out of this sucker

Light showers, need every drop before the upcoming heatwave.... .10 so far today.

And you’re calling a game at the first inning…

I think that is true for this winter…not the last two. Those were pretty strong analog years. But analogs for sure do not decide what comes next. We can agree on that. However, long wave pattern recognition during some weather cycles is not overly difficult. In fact, it might more accurate than d10-15 forecasts. I mean warm with a moderate to strong ENSO cycle. That might be different in middle and west TN. E TN often just watches storm tracks with this va cold front watching. For the past two winters, I felt pretty good about seasonal ideas. This one is tricky. But when in doubt, I go with ENSO. That says AN temps for DJF but with MJO cycles into colder phases at times. Storm track is coastal plain at times.

I started a thread for a few sprinkles lol.

He should vacation down here for those stretches lol It's not really the same feel 1000 ft asl

Congrats Kevin There will be no way to miss that furnace later this coming week Wow does that look ugly Can only hope Canada continues to step in and cool us afterwards.

Let’s Hundo next week.

At least we can dissect the fail in @JenkinsJinkies next “What Went Wrong” thread.

Well, at this point it's getting a little out of hand. We really need to get some rain, leading up to this, or it's going to be problematic for plants, animals and humans alike. The herbaceous and ground layer is already exhibiting some edaphic stress in my area. , especially along road and highway verges.

A big 0.2 for me, and the forecast has been walked back to just scattered light showers. That 0.2 is probably my total. Then we descend into 100-plus degree hell this week

Let’s see if that little batch just to your southwest holds together and has any oomph.

I guess Summer will be here in full force. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Wednesday Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Thursday Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 75. Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.

Trace to 0.01” so far. Drought relief!

Amazing sunrise right now

I think this is in Montana, above 6500 feet, where they are expecting 4 inches of wet snow! https://www.weather.gov/tfx/ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Missoula MT 1104 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026 MTZ007-291500- /O.UPG.KMSO.WS.A.0004.260628T0000Z-260629T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMSO.WS.W.0004.260628T0000Z-260629T1500Z/ Butte/Blackfoot Region- 1104 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected above 6500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with 8 to 16 inches across the Anaconda Pintler Mountains. * WHERE...Georgetown Lake, backcountry and higher elevation areas. * WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM MDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan for winter-like conditions in the backcountry and higher elevations. Cold temperatures and wet snow will elevate the risk of hypothermia. Heavy wet snow may down trees, blocking access to backcountry roadways. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons should consider delaying travel across the backcountry and higher elevations. If travel is absolutely necessary, consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ AL

Do we make it 6 months in a row of -PNA? 5940dm block over the PNA region is not a typical El Nino pattern. We aren't seeing that El Nino low pressure in the North Pacific at all, although at times US and Europe conditions have been close match.

Managed some rain this evening but not a lot. Hopefully we get soaked tomorrow and Sunday.

Historic heat wave in Europe has correlation to ENSO

This is the first time that i've been able to access the forum in over 24 hours. I'm not even sure if I'll be able to post this without another error. Has anyone reported the bad gateway to admin ?

Figured some folks were getting slammed in that narrow zone from Fluvanna toward Fredericksburg...

I meant that by the time you got there it had already ended.

I'm having all sorts of issues too. Almost gave up reading anything tonight as it was taking forever to load. I got a "Bad Gateway" error also.

Hit 93 today. No rain.

In the Flash Flood Warning in Stafford County. We have 3.61” of rain so far today. The creek is roaring behind the house and there’s a lot of ponding of water everywhere.