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This looks really good, but 2 of these recent or fairly recent Nina analogs were really shitty winters. And Dec 2006-Jan 2007 was awful, although Feb 2007 was cold and fairly snowy.

By the way, I settled on this for analogs for temperatures for the cold season: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23 Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025 Couple pretty cold months in there, but its not really long-lasting or consistent where it shows. Snow anomaly looks like a smiley face, going from Montana-Idaho border to NM-CO border in the West, Ozarks shooting NE to interior New England/Maine for heavy snow. In between (OK/NE New Mexico, North TX, etc) will have some nasty ice storms. I went below average for snow northern plains. I expect very little snow here for most of the actual winter, but there are windows in November, late Feb-late Apr that should be productive. For winter precipitation I used the Mar/Apr weighting for wetness/dryness. Jan-Mar has retrograding cold shots as the La Nina rapidly collapses while cold air is still around. So by March its Plains/West, but for January Plains/East.

The last time was Sandy that happened wasn't it?

You don’t see this kind of advisory too often Flood Advisory National Weather Service New York NY 438 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 NYC071-079-087-119-132200- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0077.251011T2038Z-251013T2200Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Orange NY-Putnam NY-Rockland NY-Westchester NY- 438 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Minor to locally moderate flooding is expected in low-lying areas along the Hudson River due to 3 to 4 ft of storm surge up the Hudson River during the times of high tide Sunday afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday afternoon. * WHERE...A portion of southeast New York, including the following counties, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester. * WHEN...Until 600 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Scattered areas minor to locally moderate flooding is expected in the most vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Expect around 1 to 2 ft of inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 422 PM EDT, Minor to locally moderate flooding is expected in low-lying areas along the Hudson River due to 3 to 4 ft of storm surge up the Hudson River during the times of high tide Sunday afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday afternoon. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Piermont, Stony Point, Cortland, Ossining, Cold Spring, Newburgh and Croton-on-Hudson. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

How did Cape May get a 12+ foot surge, that furthest South red point on your map.

Yup still holding on this year and didn’t cave yet. Will see how it goes with the rain and lack of sun the next couple of days.

I think we were somewhere between 9-11 feet up here you might want to double check though I'm going by memory.

My forecast did suggest a slow start. Enjoy the fall weather while you can. Come january you will be wishing for temps above 45 . I expect more mix events than anything else in late nov into mid dec as the pattern sets up for january

Yep, I think last year was only the second time I made it to November lol October 10th is a little early for me though.

I agree it just doesn't feel comfortable to walk on a cold floor either. It's wonderful in the summer though, just not now.

Sorry I currently have brain freeze Only kidding, I believe it was the 3rd week of October last year, I try to make it to Halloween annually but usually cave in a week or two before then every year.

I was going to ask you if you saw the Northern Lights up there but I guess not with all that dust? Or is that something that only happens during the races with dust being kicked up?

Maybe I'm just a wussy but I don't like being chilled in my own house, it just bugs me. It also makes my back feel like shit and I don't like feeling shitty. Heat goes on at 65 when the house drops below 60. We need an old man shakes fist at clouds emoji

ha! I'm lucky if remember yesterday

Very. I rented a black pickup and it was dark brown the first day and a dusty beige when I left after 3 days. To be fair it was parked on the mountain at Whiteface and in a dirt parking lot at Mt V. Between Mt bikes sliding around and thousands of spectators there were clouds of dust hovering over the racecourses all day.

NWS has dialed back my predicted coastal flooding. Slowly, we look to be headed from major to moderate instead. Living on the water, 4-8 inches can mean the difference between insane amounts of water damage or just a PIA cleanup.

I'm still amazed at the job the LFM did with the Blizzard of 78. Had it at 48 (only went out to 48 hours) hours and never let it go or wavered. I have that as second hand information as I was in high school at the time. I do remember speaking with Meteorologist Bill Korbel at the time and he was keeping me in the loop. I was one of his Weather Watchers back in the day. Great guy and great Met. LFM had a shaky reputation to say the least and was notorious for pulling the rug at the last minute.

It’s a Minecraft mountain.

Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle most of the afternoon since about 1:00 here. Checked the gauge and .02" as of 4:50. Kind of damp, raw and chilly. Currently 57.

Bring back the LFM...

How undisciplined can a team be?

back and forth we go...radar time tomorrow lol

Heads up in the Sierra come Monday-Weds timeframe for possibly a couple of feet of snow.

Agreed, sun came out quite a bit in Hampstead. Never rained.

Steadier periods of rain will arrive tomorrow as a developing coastal nor'easter begins to affect the region. The wind will also pick up as the day wears on. Highs should reach the lower 60s tomorrow. The nor'easter will bring periods of rain and strong winds to the region into Tuesday. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely across the region with locally higher amounts. The wind will gust to 40 mph in New York City and its nearby suburbs, and 60 mph along portions of the Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. Following the nor'easter, a fresh shot of cool air will move into the region during the middle of next week. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +10.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.286 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.