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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
you can be a snow and cold enthusiast and also enjoy hot summers. I don't understand why ANYONE likes rain in the summer, even farmers I have talked to on Long Island prefer hot and dry summers. -
_________Table of forecasts (over and above current 5 1 1) ______________ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________17 _ 10 _ 5 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 16 __ 9 _ 3 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 15 _ 10 _ 2 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 15 __ 9 _ 3 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 15 __ 8 _ 4 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________14 __ 7 _ 4 marsman (14) _______________________________14 __ 4 _ 2 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 13 __ 9 _ 4 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 13 __ 9 _ 3 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________13 __ 9 _ 2 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 13 __ 8 _ 4 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 13 __ 8 _ 3 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 13 __ 8 _ 3 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 12 __11 _ 5 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 12 _ 10 _ 4 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 12 __ 8 _ 3 yoda (22) ____________________________________12 __ 8 _ 3 ___ consensus _______________________________12 __ 8 _ 3 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 4 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 wxallannj (21) ________________________________12 __ 7 _ 3 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 George BM (35) _____________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 12 __ 6 _ 3 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 12 __ 6 _ 3 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________12 __ 6 _ 2 jconsor (3) __________________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 4 BKViking (29) _______________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 3 ___ UKMO ___________________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 3 LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 ___ NOAA ___________________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 Newman (15) ________________________________ 11 __ 6 _ 2 vpbob21 (19) _________________________________10 __ 6 _ 3 ineedsnow (2) _______________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 2 cardinalland (14) _____________________________10 __ 5 _ 2 NC USGS^ (33) _______________________________ 9 __ 9 _ 1 Ga Wx (20) ___________________________________ 9 __ 8 _ 2 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _____________________ 9 __ 7 _ 3 Retrobuc (11) _________________________________ 9 __ 5 _ 2 StormchaserChuck (23) ______________________ 8 __ 6 _ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ____________________ 7 __ 8 _ 3 Hotair (26) ____________________________________ 6 __ 3 _ 1 ================= mean (excl expert fcsts) is 11.8 __ 7.3 _ 3.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries The above represents the count you now require to complete your forecasts.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Those areas are warming much faster than we are (in the summer anyway.) Is there a reason why summers are much hotter there than they are here, Don? -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
But heat increase is measured by rising temperatures, not dew points. -
You were just at the beach
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Fort Collins went from mid-90's to mid-60's with some rain today, relative humidity of 80%
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2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation
Prismshine Productions replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Old Farmers Almanac says Mild and Dry Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk -
Back in the pool this afternoon temp dropped fron 82 to 63
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The temperature dipped to 58° in Central Park this morning, making today the third consecutive day with a low of 59° or below. The last time there were three consecutive such days in August occurred exactly 18 years ago during August 20-22, 2007. Meanwhile, in contrast to the deep trough responsible for the cool weather in the Northeast, there is a powerful heat dome that will bring near record and record heat to parts of the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Sunday. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +5.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.582 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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2025 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Met1985 replied to Maggie Valley Steve's topic in Southeastern States
A lot more comfortable today. Had a high of 78 with a current temp of 75 but the humidity is in the 60s... -
Fwiw, the 12Z JMA very similarly to the Icon has a TD that forms on 8/29 in the NW Caribbean and moves NW toward the N. Yucatan:
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Pretty impressive they hit 87° yet pulled off a -3F for the day. Yoregust.
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Never stop…
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Great example of poorly sited thermometers like my Tempest on the rooftop - high up there 84 - All other stations DEOS etc. at my elevation in 70s to near 80-81 degrees for highs
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Great example of poorly sited thermometers like my Tempest on the rooftop - high up there 84 - All other stations DEOS etc. at my elevation in 70s to near 80-81 degrees for highs -
With the relentless heat and dryness in that area, cacti and gila monsters must be prolific.
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76F here attm. 79F for the high Tomorrow will be a bit warmer.
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Shall we say overperformer today? 85-86F
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We know that for sure.
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You’ll never guess what the internet consensus is for the male equivalent of Karen.
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Deep summer.
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I’d love to post more meteorological stuff, but I can’t afford the paywalls. I miss university times. Not being at my laptop most of the time also makes posting graphics more of a pain. I’m really not good with the phone. There is a double standard regarding winter and snow as everyone bitches and moans about Cold And Dry or rainy slop.