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WB 12Z GFS and EURO precip. through Day 7. EURO can't make up its mind....

May not hit 70!

Yeah this week has been brutal.

Regardless of extended clown temperatures on apps and accuwx etc, it looks potentially quite warm by mid to late next weekend.

Yeah, we would get smaller Canadian wildfires back in those days. We even had smoke in the late 80s from wildfires in the Appalachians. But the Canadian wildfires have been at record levels since 2023. June 6-8, 2023 was a first for our area having such thick smoke. A recent study found that the smoke dropped our temperatures by 5°F. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/worst-air-quality-world-wildfire-smog-smothers-new-york The Wednesday morning air quality was bad. The day began in the “red” with AQIs in the 151-200 range. An AQI in that range has only occurred a handful of times in the last few decades in the city. Still, New Yorkers tried to continue with their daily routine activities. By late Wednesday morning, the grey blob as seen from the ABI visible band on GOES satellite, showed the highest concentration of smoke flowing across Lake Ontario, Upstate New York and into the City region. Shortly after, the skies went dark over the city by 2pm, and air quality continued to worsen through the evening. The AQI was above 480 on Wednesday evening in NYC, technically off the chart. NYC’s air quality was quickly compared to large cities in India and China known for their chronic pollution. At that point, New York City had the worst air quality in the world. The pollution was bad enough to cancel outdoor after-school activities for the 1.1 million students in the largest public school system in the country, and prompt a shift to remote learning for the following days. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1306?af=R#:~:text=During the fire season of,(NYC) and its surroundings. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02214-3

I don't think you didn't notice, I don't think it was happening.

The PHL Airport recorded 21 days over 90 degrees in July. The average high temperature was 90.5 degrees. Our own little heat island spot at Phoenixville clocked in at a toasty 89.2 average high with 15 such days. The growing disparity between Urban Heat Island stations and more rural stations is best highlighted when looking at the average high temperature comparison looking at the airport since 1970 when the heat island problems began in earnest. Comparing there vs. The Phoenixville Cooperative data vs. All other Chester County average high temperatures since 1970. While Phoenixville (purple line) has shown warming during our current warm climate cycle they are now clearly being surpassed by the PHL Airport (red line). The rest of Chester County (blue line) has warmed much slower than both PHL and Phoenixville.

Hey Cape don't be afraid of the facts and raw unadjusted data....nothing flawed...and nothing to fear - stay calm!! Charlie does not sweat it...he simply tries to explain away the actual raw data with altered/adjusted facts to disprove the actual raw data. It is a healthy debate!

Looks like a top five vacation week as well.

What a beauty out here today, Top 10 day.

AQI down to 141 in Minneapolis. Feel like I can take the kids to the playground again.

Insanely gorgeous Chamber approved

Yes due largely to collisions with seabreeze along with high moisture levels. I’m talking about my home, which is not as far inland as the airport and thus gets slightly more on avg…see darker shading nearer to coast. Our area gets avg summer rain that’s double+ avg winter rain. July/Aug are our 2 rainiest on avg. Normal July rain:

Admittingly, I don't remember as a kid, growing up in the 60's, then all they way up to a few years ago. Maybe I didn't notice?

Yes. I only remember talking about wildfire smoke one time in my life before the last couple of years, and that was summer 2002 with the fires in Quebec.

Not too bad here today but yesterday was like wow. When the wind picked up in the afternoon mixing down the smoke it literally smelled like campfires smoldering. Strong too. I went out back once to make sure my scrap wood pile wasn't burning lol

Euro Weeklies and GEFS Extended in general agreement for August precip. Dry, D.C. east, wet west of D.C. especially up the spine of Apps. Heat Dome likes the 4 corners ( better than Texas, east), with a slight semblance of troughiness for the east.

The lowest ACE La Ninas tend to see severe cold dumps / cold waves into the West in Nov-Feb. For whatever reason the trend doesn't hold in the cold neutrals. The recent average ACE in hurricane seasons immediately before a La Nina winter is something like 160. Canadian doesn't really have a La Nina. Inactive September in La Nina can often precede a severely cold January nationally too if you look. My assumption is this entire setup will show up, shoved south in the winter. Unlikely to be the dominant pattern. But as a recurring minor setup. The setup moved far enough south would be +WPO with a +PNA - that's a pretty wet pattern out here in the Fall/Spring if it is in place during those times. Not as good for winter locally. Parts of the look show similarities to the quite hurricane seasons of 2013 and 2022. September 2013 is wettest on record locally, with Feb-Apr 2023 seeing severe cold for the time. We had a low of 21F here in April 2023, all time record for April here is like 18F. If you push everything south its a good pattern Plains like 2013, if you push it southeast, good pattern west like 2022. The high south of South America would be by Greenland and the big low SE of Australia would move to the Western US with the low over Kamchatka and the high off southeast asia instead of east of Japan. This is the southeast movement solution (Feb 1-Apr 7 2023)

67.3 F at 12:30 PM on 8/2 is awesome! .

Have you ever seen both of us in the same room together?

12z UK: 3rd run in row w/MDR TD moving WNWNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 41.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 07.08.2025 120 14.4N 43.3W 1009 280000UTC 08.08.2025 132 16.2N 46.1W 1009 291200UTC 08.08.2025 144 17.6N 49.2W 1010 280000UTC 09.08.2025 156 19.7N 52.0W 1011 281200UTC 09.08.2025 168 21.2N 55.3W 1011 34

CTP discussed record heat in today’s discussion. For June + July 2025: Harrisburg: 76.8F average temperature ranks 7th warmest Williamsport: 74.0F average temperature ranks tied 7th warmest Altoona: 73.1F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest Bradford: 67.7F average temperature ranks 2nd warmest State College: 73.3F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest For July 2025: Harrisburg: 79.8F average temperature ranks 8th warmest Williamsport: 76.8F average temperature ranks tied 9th warmest Altoona: 74.7F average temperature ranks 8th warmest Bradford: 69.5F average temperature ranks tied 4th warmest State College: 76.0F average temperature ranks 4th warmest

We somehow only received .63 yesterday while 10 miles SW got 5 to 6 and 6 miles SE got 4-6.

Mark, is that you????