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Unfortunately, that’s just one run. But what is persistent is the trough over Alaska. Ideally you would want to see a ridge over Alaska heading into the Arctic which will force the coldest air into CONUS. Mind you, colder than normal temps don’t always equal snow. December 2022 was colder than normal too, and was quite stormy across CONUS with significant snow storms. But for the northeast; it was mainly rain. The month can be cold overall, but when it counts (when there is precipitation nearby, it might be too warm down here for snow.) That being said, the long range looks to be stormy enough across CONUS so hopefully that can coincide with the colder temps and make some snow over here.

Yes--SE. I'll be calling for the shuffles in my new spot. They'll happen and I'll still wind up with 1/2 of slush and I'll call it a win.

I just think it's this cycle we are in. We will break out of it eventually. Just one of those things.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 NYZ067-010700- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.251202T0900Z-251203T0300Z/ Orange- 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

Might have put Putnam/Rockland in there but can always be added tomorrow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 NYZ067-010700- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.251202T0900Z-251203T0300Z/ Orange- 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

This is kind of where I like the nam when it starts getting into its range it can kind of show that stuff.

yes, a few of those intense Euro runs from 11/28 may have pulled it off even close to the coast.

Gefs just folded in the long range. Check out the differences.

Low of 38 this morning. High so far of 71 today. After the 2 days with highs in the upper 40's, 71 feels very warm.

You think the Euro and EPS data isn't useful when its the model with the best verification scores?

Lower confidence there. I tend to agree. Can always hoist early tomorrow.

The asinine nature of your posts is what is trolling. But you know that. Anyway, I’ll patiently wait for the others with actual useful information to post now. Have fun being miserable.

So jealous of such a large area of 8+. We just missed it. Then again, just east of us got nothing. I will take that as a good sign though for the stormy forecasts this winter. Its still November yet thats a bigger storm than any this region saw last winter.

Looks like BOX hoisted a Winter Storm Watch; nothing currently for CT or RI

One thing in previous years that we kinda didn’t have around here to flip to snow, was insane rates. I suppose this one in theory could have that, so I guess that’s the only thing to hope for.

Always we need to wait til we have very established cold to have a chance. With a warmer base state due to climate change I feel like hedging towards warm sloppy mess for the metros makes sense, especially early season.

Sitting at 37 here and models and nws hourly have it supposed to be 43. Just a little off.

original call here of 4-6 will stand until further notice, nice compromise of GFS and Euro, think jackpot North ORH cty, looks like double digits possible.

The subplot of Tblizz vs George is what I'm here for. Not expecting a flake here. Too bad the euro is the coldest model again. I feel like it's been prone to that in recent years, even if it ends up as a compromise. JAM

Could be higher, but that’s a safe bet. If it goes full euro, then we might be 2-4”.

I was wondering where you were.

Interesting observation about the AIFS deterministic model by Tomer. ( for future reference ) Tomer Burg @burgwx 2h So far this case seems to be more of an AIFS Ensemble than an AIFS deterministic success (at least on the synoptic scale) - the AIFS quickly trended more amplified and now has a stronger and farther north cyclone than the deterministic ECMWF:

11" here on the south side of McHenry.

I think with the thermal fields aee closer to reality on euro, but the problem is you have to understand what it’s trying to show you in our area. In my professional opinion, it’s just a little too warm for a majority of this to fall as snow. Especially south and east of 95. I think we could flip at the end and that’s kind of what I’m hoping for. It also may briefly start as snow too.