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Outflow is textbook. If it weren’t for some dry air intrusion we could see some insane RI. Even still heading towards 29/30c water temps should allow a shot at 135kt.

Picked up 0.07". Now a little more than an inch for Aug.

And also...how about Brandon Frickin' Young with 7.2 perfect innings??? (Darn you Urias--I KNEW that was gonna haopen just as a poke in the eye to Elias who should've kept him, lol). Baseball is a funny game! That was really something! What a way to get your first big league win, lol

Yeah I have concerns about Elias still being here when the new manager is selected--and don't trust him in letting the manager hire his own staff. Everybody but maybe Britton and the other guy (I think his name is Mayer?) has got to go. And you know...Drew French is not a terrible pitching coach either, imo

https://photos.fife.usercontent.google.com/pw/AP1GczNUEQdR2-TxQvjMZ6dEjDGAc6lMAaYlzeTU7d6q-NhI2wHuRUrjlbn3pQ=w985-h739-s-no-gm?authuser=0 Picture I took just before the storm hit. Saw a few gusts over 70 mph.

Didn't Matthew in (2016?) have that dual blob and it wasn't a big deal against intensification either>

I don’t think the dual blob structure is going to preclude Erin’s RI. The southerly mass of thunderstorms should either dissipate or form into a curved band. Even if it doesn’t, we’ve seen powerful hurricanes with a second convective mass such as Matthew. Honestly Matthew was a fascinating storm, I’m sure there are great papers discussing its structure. Not sure what caused it Very impressed with Erin’s gigantic ventilation right now, the anticyclonic outflow is sprawling across all quadrants

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/787e7361-d0d7-456f-9b78-58c40d09ba5a Two separate "blobs" but the main center of circulation is the one to the north and east of the other "blob". Bit of dry air entrained in between them. SAL in front of Erin, and SAL behind it as well.

Below normal temps to end August sometimes help kick off that earliest wave of Fall color (beyond the stressed trees already showing some color). I am SOO ready.

I got yet another 1.44" of rain from this storm. This was expected to be a totally dry week. My August total is up to 4.32". Over the last six weeks my total is nearly 13 inches.

Erin getting “the look” now. Lots of dry air nearby to potentially slow this trend, but she’s looking ready to take off. Rotating CBs in the eyewall are a dead giveaway. I believe data says the eye is a bit bigger than the pinhole it looks to be on satellite, but IR is looking fierce now

Congratulations and best wishes.

I dunno, the best lift is well below the DGZ. Probably some shitty snow growth in that.

Yes Its a boy !

It’s not impossible, but Id be more willing to bet sea-surface wind stressing patterns over time forced the distribution of thermal anomalies - I’d want to rule that out first. He’s making conjecture so I’m not really faulting him per se but if there’s going to be a formal science out of it, that’s gotta happen. That and any other plausible forces … Eliminate the possibilities to back into the theoretical premise as the remaining explanation.

On the latest satellite photos it looks like Erin now has a clear eye. Will have to wait for the aircraft recon to confirm.

This season only New Brunswick has more 89 Degree Days:New Brnswck: 9TTN: 5TEB: 5BLM: 3EWR: 1NYC: 8ACY 2ISP: 5JFK: 1LGA: 2PHL: 2

Little curious with the second graph however. Where was a 95 today?

Torch!

Wildly unnecessary watch extension

Maybe the Park guys have a little side bet going on the summer temperatures?

Be grateful. It means you're going through a healthy ecosystem, rather than one destroyed by various insecticides. Drive from New York to New Haven or to Albany, you won't have that problem.

If I'm Rubenstein, Elias is gone at the end of the season. And the entire coaching staff is gone too. The young core pretty much all went backwards this year.