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I think you are right. When the entire thing comes out, it can actually attack the big high. Without that energy...it is forced well south.

This south trend is the thing of nightmares for the western NC foothill crowd. Something we’ve seen a lot the last few years

A lot of folks cash in with the 18z GFS. Taken verbatim

Seems to eject the southern energy in pieces. Makes since with the strong northern stream

We all good yall...we know how this game goes. Nobody should even think about rising and falling rn

On the flip side, the OP run is trending north.

Yep. I’d appreciate it if you stop being an ass and move along from the topic.

I sure was. Not a trend we want to see north o I-40. Any model now which is trying to cut west of the Apps is an outlier. Models are quickly feeling the effects of a hp(albeit a bit weaker) which is exerting a lot of force. I suspect the Euro will trend south...but eventually trend back north. Suppression, in my mind, has always been an equal risk to the cutter scenario. It makes much more sense. That said, the GFS has been woeful this winter...and the ICON has been all over the place. The 18z GEFS is probably more important for a few more runs.

Saskatchewan?

Gfs does get snow up here so better than 12z

Its over....just kidding GFS looks better though

Its monday....weenies not gonna make it.

North Carolina gets smoked this run!

Exactly. This is a fail as far as what we want, but that is a solid northern stream vort that does some good work for us. Still a couple to a few inches of snow with temps in the teens.

Ai GFS is a potential 2 wave long duration system. Yes, went south but still honking for a major event.

100 percent close it now

I had to look at the 4.3 updates to see if any new models were added. They weren't. I agree that it should be easier to find this documentation.

Relax ... 1. There's a storm 2. There's plenty of cold Two things we haven't had much of recently. It'll play out over the next few days be happy for anything more than SnowTV given our recent luck.

I mean… with the horrific trends south today… is it too early to toss the towel when even ENS aren’t in your camp?

Moisture influx seems increased over previous runs. Hold on to your butts here... Storm as a whole much slower to eject this run. If this where to verify, a pasting is happening on somebody.

Always possible since ninas gonna nina. What looks straightforward on the outside still has complications on the inside...oof. The AIGFS going south was discouraging...

Man. That would be a historic storm for NC. Seems we have been saying that alot for the southern folks over the past decade.

Good evening v e . At almost 79 and being alone for the last eight years …… there will always be another weather event but there may never be another her. Insure your flight, as always……

SK? I don’t know words. .