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Will it turn left?

Models did a really nice job highlighting NY today, even back to Thursday/Friday

Severe t storm watch for western NE. As Wiz has said hopefully more will fire east later tonight including “this is a destructive storm” for a warning area is kinda new verbiage to me

As of 6/29, 2026 sea ice area is 7.09 million sq km. This is currently 5th lowest: 2012: -380k 2010: -280k 2019: -170k 2024: -40k 2011: +2k 2020: +4k 2025: +10k Still another day or two before I run the numbers but a new record is nearly ruled out. Top 3 is definitely still on the table.

yeah that complex is going to ride the instability gradient. outflow def could fire stuff up farther east

Probably more for ALB/WNE...can't rule out convection in eastern sections later though.

Right. altho, that version of the GFS was actually demoted by the following spring I think. I thought that was 2017 tho? meh either way. It seems like there was new GFS version ever 18 months between 2015 and 2022

Storms during up in Nwnj moving southeast. Will they stay together as they approach the NYC metro area?

What kind of sea breeze interaction can we see during this stretch? Only reason asking last night its appears one formed and made it down into NE CT judging by radar. After spending 9 years working outside in S FL I was keen to watching the sea breeze develop on radar for indication where storms might start to form.

Aright we’ll see, it will be close. Basically every other station in the 5 boroughs will do it. .

Because New England?

Upgraded to extreme heat warnings for 7/1-7/3, heat advisories for 7/4.

Wonder if that MCS coming into Watertown, NY area will survive the trip down to the coast?

91 feels like 96. Ahhh feels great compared to the next 4 days haha

Every top heatwave aside 1953 in August hit this week Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You have one of the most studied watersheds in America in your backyard relatively speaking. 1966. Produced some of the most cited and best done hydrology research in the world to this day. https://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/icrw/Proceedings/Gburek.pdf They have minute by minute rainfall data since the 1960s!!! Only a handful of places in world have that Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Oh they can, and have. Location! Mostly east of me but there have been plenty of 6-10" events here in Nina winters since 2017. I root for Ninas now. Sure there is always the chance of a ratter with a persistent SER but lately most have been on the cold side.

Those who know, does that complex coming out of Canada make it into eastern SNE for later this afternoon/evening? Does it hold together like that storm that barged across the Midwest yesterday?

Nope the park hits 100 easily im not that type to hype shit but this has the makings of an historic heatwave

Maybe for you, but rain is never a lock here. Personally, I've given up on snow around here. There hasn't been a 6" snowstorm in Stephens City since 2016. I watched it sleet for hours this year at 11F. Outside of some miraculous fluke, a true snowstorm here is a thing of the past.

Then we had July 2018 when the GFS was trying to paint 110s in the region with the overmixing. Ended up being high 90s over mid 70s dews. Pick your poison there.

What I mean is the elevation is accounting for less than 10% of that difference. Everything else is due to what type of area it was placed it, canopy location, if it had good radiation shielding, if it used an aspirator, location of it to buildings, decks, house, rows. Realistically elevation is almost certainly less than 5% of the difference Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

ahh... good snark needs to have some truth to it... Not sure you're on point this time. Ha. Seriously. 100? It's not as common to reach that. Perhaps that's getting easier in recent decades. Granted. Almost has to. But even in these later decades, we're not doing it often enough to justify snark. It's coming though. Much to the chagrin of the assholes that will one day actually be dying from heat while setting confused emojis to anyone that dares talk about it.. that's unavoidable.

Day 3 marginal risk issued for parts of Ky sc nc al Ms and ga .