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Maybe, but even after 46 years as a forester, I can't figure out the reasons for great/average/awful colors. We had slightly AN rain in May/June then about 50% of average July thru Sept 26, and met summer was AN but nowhere near our warmest. I've read that drought limits the colors, but it's still a 'maybe' from me. Same opinion for excessive rain. Our worst color year, by a lot, was 2005. May that year was 200% of average rain with 6° BN temp, easily the coolest here. (Ask Tip about May 2005 - he has a strong opinion of that month. ) June thru September had AN temps (Sept '26 will finish about 1.5 BN) and slightly BN rain. By October 7 the color was middling (next to none of reds), 7-10 days later than average. Then 8-10 had nearly 6" rain on strong winds which brought down about 80% of the leaves. Phooey!

Yea, I was that post concerning October and viewed it as good news.

Don't break my heart like that.

Nice! DM me if you want recs... in-laws live near there. Otherwise, I am very in for cool/dry October. Give me rain in November and December when its not as nice to be outside.

It's bad faith to make strong conclusions from the original because a) it's not comparing the reanalysis to the reanalysis climatology and b) there's an obvious change after the ocean and sea-ice upgrade. My analysis should speak for itself and I am confident in my conclusions. I don't need some other posters in another forum to back me up.

As I said, I’ve been following model initializations of 2m at 80+ N. They were colder than climo most of late May-early Aug. Check out those of the Euro for yesterday: clearly solidly BN vs 1981-2010 for 80N+ on Sep 29th (associated with a storm)(they were also quite cold going back to Sep 23rd by the way), which may actually be cold enough to support the ~2C colder than the 1958-2002 mean shown on the newest DMI graph: Here’s the Euro forecast for Oct 2nd, which shows notable warming as the storm moves S into Siberia. This is why I’m expecting warming on the DMI graphs by then:

Not me. Friv was from Saint Louis. I think he did use a handle with global warming or something, so I can see the confusion.

See I thought it’s starting to come along. Rt 3 has some decent color.

This year is the first in the last 10 that appears to be on-schedule. We've seen odd irregularities in color presentation among species ... Timing of onset, therein. Which began about 8 years ago. Since then some trees around this area that are easy to remember, year-to-year, began displaying yellows instead of orange. Going brown instead of orange. Going red even... doing so at as early as September 20 and as late as October 15. This year however, it reminds me of the amount of 'tinging' that should be here on October 1-ish, which is the case now. Another week, you can see that we'll be flashing up pretty good. October 10 was always dependable prior to that 8 years ago; the peak for this guy was close to that date This year, judging now and extrapolating seems we'll be close to this by October 10 again

Starting to look great here!

Yeah finally a turn for the better.

Weird, hardly any noticeable foliage here aside from the leaves having a more faded look. That’s probably mostly to do with having a fairly dry summer. I’m sure within a couple weeks we’ll start seeing the change. New England's many micro climates and eco diversity is always fascinating to witness.

Due to the timing of the upgrade, I’m also quite suspicious that this Euro 5/12/26 upgrade MAY have contributed to the colder 2026 vs previous summers. So, I do see what you’re saying. Thats why I went to that other forum and spent a couple of hours to see if anyone pointed to that. But nobody did in those hundreds of posts from very knowledgeable folks, including very experienced pro-mets. If this Euro upgrade is really a contributor or possibly even the main cause, don’t you think at least one person there would have mentioned that? That’s why I’d prefer to keep an open mind until there’s decent agreement among the met. community. Do you see anything wrong with that? You may be right and you’d then deserve major kudos, but I’d first Iike to see some consensus. But even if you’re right, can’t 2026 still be a cold outlier but to a lesser extent?

September 30 1995: Lightning starts a house on fire in Washington County. 1985: 4 inches of snow falls in Ely, with just a trace in the Twin Cities. For Wednesday, September 30, 2026 1896 - A hurricane formed on September 22 and lasted until September 30. It formed directly over the Lesser Antilles and hit Cuba, Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. Its maximum sustained winds were at 130 mph. The heaviest rainfall deposited in association with the storm was 19.96 inches at Glennville, Georgia. This hurricane was responsible for an estimated 130 deaths and $1.5 million in damage (1896 dollars). 1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel) 1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data) 1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 30 Wed International Podcast Day 30 Wed National Love People Day 30 Wed International Translation Day 30 Wed World Maritime Day 30 Wed National Day for Truth and Reconciliation 30 Wed Blasphemy Day 30 Wed Extra Virgin Olive Oil Day 30 Wed National Chewing Gum Day 30 Wed National Hot Mulled Cider Day 30 Wed National Mud Pack Day 30 Wed National Puppy Mill Survivor Day 30 Wed Pet Tricks Day

rain classic

2 days of mostly sunny forecasts I think I've seen the sun maybe 2 hrs

We continue to see a nice warming trend today through Friday. Temperatures by Friday could touch the 80's for what will likely be our last time for most spots till next April or May. We turn sharply chillier over the weekend and especially next week. Highs by next Tuesday will remain in the chilly 50's with nighttime lows down into the 30's with the potential of a frost or freeze across some of our typically colder valley locations by Wednesday morning.

We continue to see a nice warming trend today through Friday. Temperatures by Friday could touch the 80's for what will likely be our last time for most spots till next April or May. We turn sharply chillier over the weekend and especially next week. Highs by next Tuesday will remain in the chilly 50's with nighttime lows down into the 30's with the potential of a frost or freeze across some of our typically colder valley locations by Wednesday morning.

Because the plot he posted was for May-Aug, I’ll analyze that period. Looking at the image below, May-Aug averaged ~1.3C, not ~2C, below the much older 1958-2002 climo: May was ~-2C, June was ~-2C, July was ~-1C, and Aug was ~-0.1C. This means ~-1.3C for the avg of May-Aug rather than -2C. However, I do realize that -1.3C vs 1958-2002 would be a good bit more negative vs 1991-2020….perhaps as much as ~-3C?? So, that would be colder than what that 925 mb anomaly map suggests for 80N+, which I roughly estimate to be -1.25C: However, that image is for 925 mb, not 2m. Isn’t it possible that the 2m anom was colder than the 925 mb anom?

Judging by the positioning of the ridge and the expected timing of the front, Friday AM looks like a good time. I would say the best time is Thursday evening, so whatever works best for your schedule. Definitely want to do it before the weekend.

I mowed the pawpaw and chestnut area once in the early spring and that has been it. There’s a little meadow back there now with clover, goldenrod, and aster. The crickets have been insane.