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remarkably, there is one shower in the entire Mid-Atlantic this evening, and it's right over my house.

don't know if this works but it should navigate somewhere https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/25082612/index.html

Already down to 56 this evening after an absolutely gorgeous day with a high of 72. Looking like the cool Autumn like air continues into Labor Day and the first week of September. It appears that summer has come to an early end for the Mountains. The models are showing several strong early Fall cold fronts into the first several weeks of September!

I’m going to pretend it’s a cat 1 hurricane so I can trick myself into enjoying it

What's the link to that again? There's been a strong ensemble (EPS) signal for some type of low to develop off the coast this weekend. I have zero interest right now given the possibility that this just trends to some strung out mess that gets ejected OTS, but if there were a way to get some tropical or hybrid up this way (or at least rain), this could work. We meh for now.

Weirdly poison ivy has absolutely no effect on me. I can clear acres with my bare hands and not having it itch. That tree actually had none or very little. What you see is wild grape and porcelain berry.

He posts in here everyday, often about hoodies

I'm probably going to be wrong, but things look very quiet across the Atlantic and Pacific this year. The rest of the season in the Atlantic may be a complete dud.

September 9-22

speaking of KARB (and notwithstanding missing a previous discussion about this) isn't that always an abnormally cold spot because its in a valley?

Man, some of you all are just unlucky. Picked up another half inch so far today. DEN picked up 1.3"! That puts the airport at 2.8" on the month, well above normal. Looks like parts of Aurora have seen 2-2.5" today.

The GFS solution is a warm core

I dont know who that is. I have very poor heat tolerance though. May-October here sucks imo

Fall just rolled in over here. The clouds look like a late September early October sky.

Shut out again, despite heavy rains all of 3 miles from me

Had a high of 72 with a current temp already at 59 degrees. Going to be a COLD August night.

OI OIIIII SEPTEMBER WILL POP OFF TS FREQ: ACE: @GaWxGTFIH

Its nice to see 2 models on board but yeah a week is forever

I'm watching the AMO. That sucker's going down at some point. Even before Erin it has shown cooling over the past year to my eyes. It's all coming together for a negative AMO and positive PDO....one of these years....

Thanks for posting wasn't aware of this one. I really like Whiteface and this is a great deal to head up there for a long weekend.

Sadly this is still deep into fantasy land. It would be great if it verified.

Cooler covers the region. High temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. The cool weather will continue through the weekend. On account of the cool air, August 2025 will be among the five coolest Augusts since 2000. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +18.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.930 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (2.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Great day to put a saw into a tree loaded with poison ivy... Risks of chainsawing poison ivy. Airborne urushiol: The saw's blades can create a fine mist or "poisonous flying sawdust" coated in urushiol oil.

It's a great deal IMO especially when you look at Stowe's sticker price mid-season. Grabbed 3 days each for me and my son back in May - $86 a day can't beat it..

lets get that a bit stronger