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Thing is, and who knows how much, if any, it matters, but we are likely not going to see an official Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthlies Enso 3.4 average temps at or below -.5C) this winter if consensus modeling is correct. Not that the RONI won't be in Niña territory as well as Chuck's favorite subsurface readings, but it is something that "might" make a difference. In fact, Enso 3.4 temps are struggling to even maintain a -.5C reading over the past month+. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for I'll repeat...who knows.

There's one day that's listed with a high of 72° (10/2) that actually had a high of 66°. I'm not sure how the 72° got into the climate record. Every other NYC area location ((BDR: 63, ISP: 67, LGA: 66, NYC: 66, EWR:68, HPN: 64)) + the hourly data shows < 70° for 10/2. During late September/early October, there were recurring issues at the JFK station.

We've got 2 weeks left of October. I wouldn't count any of those things out until we're closer to the end of the month.

I agree. It's possible that other variables contributed, too, beyond the two utilized e.g., PNA. During the AO+/NAO+ days, 61.8% had a PNA+; for AO+/NAO- days, 56.5% had PNA+.

True but we also had two category 5's this year, two category 5's last year, and the boiling caribbean hasn't been remotely touched this year. So it's entirely safe to say that if atmospheric conditions allow, something could easily blow up in caribbean in late October.

This just made the TWO for first time (0/20): Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave located over the tropical central Atlantic is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days. Some slow development of this system is possible when it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

The WPC just released their 3 month forecast for winter and it doesn't look good for us. https://x.com/NWSGSP/status/1978840883098202131 However, just out of curiosity and went back and looked at their forecast for the 2013-2014 since that seems to be the winter that is getting the most comparisons and the similarities are striking. Below is also how that winter faired for us.

Thanks. It’s a bit surprising. If the AO is going to be positive, then we should root for a +NAO instead of - Wondering if the SE ridge linkage happens more with a +AO/-NAO regime…

I thought slightly AN. Too bullish on the peak, but nailed the big lull and when the tropics would heat up. It was a pretty big comeback but this season never had the runway others did.

12Z: Icon joining the consensus turning it sharply right as it goes into DR after forming in E Caribbean; also very weak entire run CMC once again is the only model with a TCG E of the Lesser Antilles; TS goes through Windwards; it like the Icon joins the consensus turning it sharply right as it, too, goes N over DR. Then the weakened main part moves NE toward Bermuda GFS forms in E Caribbean and then moves N over PR followed by turn to NE/OTS UKMET text again shows no TCG through day 7 but again a sfc low is there (1007 mb) that’s further S than 0Z with it 300 miles S of Jamaica moving slowly W at 168; so this not turning right by 168 is exception so far of 12Z operationals JMA only out to 72 so far (inconclusive) Euro is next

Because it could abruptly collapse tomorrow.

There's definitely a subjective aspect to it, and one author may interpret the slew of objective data sets slightly differently than another. Aside from precip, ground water, river flow, a range of drought indices, and reports from the ground are all used to compile the product. In terms of how it's made, you might check out this short video (first below) and then a much longer and presumably much more detailed video below that (second). I think they'll be instructive in explaining how it all comes together.

Take with a grain of salt but.... So nice to see a cold front passage then a storm explode in the area. 12z Icon just shows what can happen this winter.

The timing on this has slowed quite a bit. Going to be one heck of a squall going across the region.

Going to make my 10a tournament in Dover, NH interesting.

It has my eye for sure - if a nice low pressure can be in the vicinity - fun things can happen even outside of peak heating. And honestly....I think peak heating becomes a lot less important this time of year and with a dynamic system.

Maybe some graupel?

Well we are officially past peak season with no United States landfalls this season. 2015 is the last time the USA did not have a land falling hurricane. It also looks like the streak of 7 years with 10 major hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast will come to an end this year. It is still possible for a US landfall but majors in November that make landfall as a major have never happened. Hurricane Kate in 1985 is the strongest hurricane to hit the US in November as a CAT 2 cane.

-NAO can actually be more of a hinderance up here on average....but as we say, there are exceptions. NAO is often more about modulating duration up here. I think the PNA is actually pretty crucial to high-end events, especially south of NYC, but even up here to an extent. Tough to dig enough in the absence of a well placed ridge out by Idaho or there abouts.

weekend affair giving off skip job vibes, should manage some rain either way

The drought certainly hasn't been worsening in southern New England.

No it's closer to 30 in the middle of the night when no one else is posting ha

Maybe even Dimaggio Joking, don't think anyone is ever touching his record! I think mine's around 30....