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Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much

Just looked at the NWS forecast for Asheville and saw this: Saturday Night Snow and freezing rain before 8pm, then freezing rain between 8pm and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. Low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Freezing rain before 1pm Then add wind. This is starting to remind me of Helene. What is the worst case scenario; mother nature says lets do it. Still hard to believe it would be that cold and not be sleet.

The ICON goes way west, with the Gulf low coming up through the east central, almost like an apps runner, and then it pops out off the Jersey coast.

The GFS.... ...is Randy's show. But it looks OK so far.

Pressures little higher over us as well.

7. Typical model waffling/wobbling/cha cha cha. .

AIGFS with a bump north. Will check temps when available.

If anything, GFS seems a little less "connected" out west and s/w just a smidge further SW, but not by much

I remember it well. 2 days off school for an inch of slop.

Can we give the GFS a . It is interesting considering it's not a model showing the highest amount of snow from this coming weekends storm

Gfs is quicker then the euro at 12z

Is it tradition to discuss March 2001 every time there's a winter storm in our backyard? It's almost 25 years. Models have improved a lot since then. Can we let it die?

Not sure I love the ridge out west at 54 to start here.

Euro has the 850 low into NY state with the 850 WF just off south coast. You want 12”+ then you really want to see closed 850 to our south. Not always the case…but it’s something to keep in mind and a reality check.

This is the point of no return on the run if it’s no phase, meaning we do ok

Looks like it.. .

The Blacksburg forecast discussion suggests this is going to be purely snow/sleet for the northern mountains, stating that unless the models keep trending north and west, the surface cold air pool is simply too deep to be eroded. They give a 30-40% chance of 10"+ in the NC counties. At this point I would definitely take 9" of snow, 3" of sleet and then a little more snow on top of that.

So far, nothing huge changewise on the GFS at 66

All that said, 100mm is just under 4 inches, and I don't see that happening in this storm anywhere. Nevertheless, the ice forecast is significant and energy grid damage will occur.

Miss you Zeus

Is that just an empty void w/o precip??

Thru 48 on gfs heights little lower out front.

Love this except im curious of what ur thinking with the 6" zone. Most guidance has shifted the 6" snow well into Virginia.

Lots of virga

In NYC it's been 5 years since 12" and 4 years since 7-8" Is that right or am I missing a storm? Been waiting a while for the next 12"+ storm Have to be in NYC this Saturday for a high school reunion, then drive back to Philly early Sunday. Wish me luck! Hope the storm starts Sunday afternoon.