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Blocking would be nice but we've had blocking many times with a perfect set up and still storms missed us. Sometimes a strong block can actually keep storms too far south.

Euro with 2-3" of rain through Monday. GFS less than 1"

Sorta similar setup too with the coastal. Op Euro goes nuts with it. 2” swath through metro corridor. Would be nice after this storm is a semi-bust.

81 / 67

Everything has 60’s well into mid week now

Added 1.1 inches of additional rain from midnight through early morning.

The same can be said every year. If this board were around for the 95-96 and 97-98 winters, I’m sure you would have had people saying 95-96 was going to be a warm and snowless winter because of the Niña and on the flip side, I’m sure you would have had the weenies trying to force a cold and snowy winter for 97-98 super El Niño. There are biases at play every year

And when they post I often wonder whether they're secretly giddy in posting bad news because of being warministas...but we haven't had a promising winter outlook in years, so when the year comes when we finally do, and it does produce, I'm interested to see how they post then, lol

There is also some solid evidence against another abysmal season, but some will ignore. I hear what you're saying, but feel like it's intellectually lazy. At the end of the day, we were due for extended regression.

This "wet" stretch of weather has been a dud locally. We've had a little over a tenth of an inch (total since Sunday). Looks like south and east of I-71 has been the jackpot zone. Still some chances today but after that it looks like it could be a while before it rains again.

If anything came up the coast it would transition to a cold core system so quickly. It would lose its tropical characteristics upon getting off the Carolina coast. "Worst case" scenario is some much needed rain and probably 30-40 mph gusts, mostly at the coast. And that is even fantasy

Yep Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Models did a piss poor job initializing the rain in PA.

It's actually bad for your mental and physical health to be stacked on top of eachother and have constant noise pollution, another major factor people always forget.

Very underpopulated for when they were building out the system. Pre 1950 there was still tons of farmland east of Flushing Meadow Park. Majority homes were built in the 50s and 60s out here.

Even for the NYC area, using a 0.0°-1.0° warm anomaly over the 1991-2020 baseline isn't a guarantee of a very bad (low) snow season. Looking at all December-March cases that fell within that range at Central Park: Mean seasonal snowfall was 16.9"; median seasonal snowfall was 13.4". In terms of seasons, 13.3% had less than 10" seasonal snowfall but 26.7% had 20" or more. Most common range: 10.0"-19.9" (60.0%). Highest: 38.6", 2020-2021; Lowest: 2.8", 1972-1973. And for 0.5°-1.5° above the 1991-2020 baseline: Mean snowfall: 19.0" Median snowfall: 17.9" Snowfall distribution: 36.4% had 20" or more 18.2% had 30" or more 45.5% had 10.0–19.9" 18.2% had less than 10" Extremes: Snowiest: Winter 2005-2006 with 40.0" Least snowy: Winter 1972-1973 with 2.8" If one were looking at a 40.0° winter, that would signal very bad prospects.

.01 today...tonight looks good to maybe cancel the governor's no burn order. Finally some freakin' weather.

GFS says what rain? Develops 93L and recurves and does very little with 94L

Nah... dews in the 50s early next week (IMBY

I am not a fan of high dews

Although there’s not much in the way of low level center, there’s a pretty robust mid level reflection as evidenced by visible satellite and TJUA radar. Not sure I buy the 12z GFS evolution.

Most people aren't interested in being packed like sardines in a subway train. It's why densely packed cities are antithetical to good environmental and health policies.

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The 12Z GFS solution suggests our rain chances will continue over the next 5 to 7 days with some SW Mountain locations possibly exceeding 5 inches

Both will be wrong.