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Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

We don’t look at the GFS, but it’s a damn good hit. AI twin is west too.

0.80" here. Not bad. Good drink for the vegetable garden.

OK, I'll send it Tuesday. What's the postage like for 2" of rain? Got 0.36" with tonight's surprise storm. I'll take it, though Centennial Airport (measuring station 4 miles south) got 1.01".

I'll trade you 2" of rain for a low dew point. I've got extra. I just want a dew point of like 30 or something, really.

.19" on the day here....so spitting.

The Phoon headed towrads SE Janpan is doing nothing,its warning the Yellow Sea and even Sea of Japan SSTS,general speaking there really dont seem like there is break down of the PDO any where soon,these waters shouldnt be warm but cold in a +PDO

Yes, you can clearly see the outflow plume on the N side getting squashed by nrly shear. It is moving steadily S now as well. S movement outside an eye wobble loop usually means not good times ahead as it takes quite strong flow to push a TC bodily S. Most of the time, the LLCC gets exposed in short order. An exception I can think of was Joaquin Oct 2015, but that was much farther S (22-23N) and over the Gulf Stream. Solid, strong banding on the E side of Fay now, but the W side convection is waning.

Yes. Gonna be close. Window has begun to close. If I was to wager I would say Fay does not make it to Hurricane status. Unless there is a Special Update (doubtful) between now and 5am I don’t think it makes it. I highly doubt it would be upgraded at 5am. We’ll see soon enough.

And there full LEAVES on the TREES! One thing @CoastalWxneeds to account for here for the winds.

Wow..

Looks like NHC keeps this just below hurricane status

Put mine up last week.

One thing about lows that hook or loop back to the NW, it jacks up the winds more as it pushes against the high to NW. One reason why the Oct 2021 event was NUTZ for WINDZZZZZZZZZZ!

Same!

Shades of '11 Definitely will be that kind of a week with the cutoff low impacting the area a good part of this week as the Omega Block forms by the end of the week according to DT. Fall begins Tuesday night, and it will certainly feel like it!

@CoastalWx must relent! And yes, it might just be a "COASTAL WX" sig impact event, but so was the Perfect Storm in 1991!

12z ECMWF by 132 hr showing a strong warm seclusion unfolding (-6 C at 500 and +11 C at 700). I will get way ahead of myself and say this now, and an excuse to talk about past policy and events! The problem I see here is not whether it goes ST, it is the messaging. A strong non-tropical low then going ST and getting a name when it is sitting close to the coast? That is big problem for messaging b/c non-tropical wind warnings would have to be changed to tropical wind warnings! I do not know of any case like this this close to the coast, but similar things have happened. The Perfect Storm in Oct 1991. Once it deeply occluded, it drifted S of the Gulf Stream and become a hurricane, but they did not call it such operationally *even* thought they had a recon in it and found a 981 mb pressure and 88 kt FL winds! I found that disingenuous, as it was abundantly clear what it was, but NHC did not name it, and only included it in post-season analysis. The reasoning was they did not want to confuse the public, as the public may have thought the storm was a hurricane all along and cry foul. Such would never happen today b/c of the internet and social media. Back in those days if NHC could get away w/ not declaring a high latitude or out of season TC and defer it to post-season analyses, they would. But it has gone further. In Sep 1992, there was a small hurricane that quickly developed just N of TXKF, and it passed close to Sable Island when it was starting to weaken on sat, but they still recorded 55-60 kt winds. It was not even included in post-season analysis! In the TWO, it said, "moving towards cooler waters." That was "out phrase" for NHC not to declare something back then. Again, disingenuous and I find lazy. Just b/c something only exists for a short time, does not mean it does not exist! There are 5 suspect TCs in 1992 alone that will likely get included in HURDAT once the reanalysis project gets into to the 1990s (they plan to go to 2000). And for those wondering, the pre-Christmas 1994 storm ( the @CoastalWx “how did you know about that?” event) is a likely candidate for a 70 kt hurricane, peaking at 70 kt / 969 mb near 40/70.