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Mt holly is going to bust badly if they dont start following the modelling

We could become roommates.

Well now here it comes on the 00z 12/25 EPS. Pacific jet extends, wave breaks that semi-permanent pacific block, +PNA setting up. Merry Christmas

I hope not for your sake as well.

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early.

And a Merry Christmas to you!

Yeah looks like a big sleeter south of NYC. A few more nudges north (not even including the storm will probably be under modeled as to the northern extent of the sleet because this is a SWFE yet) and sleet will probably be quite prevalent in NYC. I’d cut the totals from CNJ on south in half.

A very good article on Dr. Frank, in case you didn't see it. https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/dr-neil-frank-dies/285-26cc29fe-18ee-4e47-bdf3-5039367c021a

The NWS offices in Philly and NYC kind of punted, lol, keeping all of the watches up and not reducing snowfall forecasts much in the updated map vs. yesterday afternoon's map, other than trimming back a bit near 276/195 and in EPA and on LI, although their discussion talks about reduced snowfall due to more sleet in the W/SW counties that have watches and due to more rain possible for the SNJ counties that have watches. Hard to blame them as there's still almost 36 hours before the event starts and this way they don't have to change twice.

Come on. It's against forum rules to quote anything Mr. G. says.

6z NAM is still dogwater. On my phone at work. Otherwise I’d post the images.

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

Brutal

Snowing here. Merry Christmas!

Mr G and a few others on Twitter. Temps are below freezing

No warnings ?

WOUDK probably be a safe bet to go with advisories for NYC on south for 3-6” of wet snow and sleet, and then warnings to the north and west for 6-8”. These bands usually get further north than expected anyway, just like the mix line does. I think Mount Holly will have to reduce totals for their area. I don’t see how Philly can get 5+” with all models showing a mainly sleet storm for them now

Thanks Don. You too my friend.

Probably 4 this afternoon they'll change to warnings and advisories

when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro?

OK go back

There is a light that is usually three feet above the Woolly Lot asphalt. Tonight it is shining UNDER the deep snowpack! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

They are saying starts fluffy but gets wetter near end. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer.

Precip gets up to SLK, it’s better with the heavier precip in CT and snow in SNE. Euro continued the trend though and that’s what really matters. Good trends for many. Merry Christmas.

Bump south??? I want it to keep bumping north. But just a little north.