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  2. bluewave
    The expanding drought has enhanced the daily high temperatures. We have been more on a La Niña background pattern through the warmer MJO and WPAC warm pool leading to a strong ridge setting up over the East and ongoing national drought. Looks like the record El Niño will began to exert some influence next few weeks with the more standard Great Lakes trough and Western ridge for June El Niño climo. We could briefly see some 90° readings on Thursday. But the next few weeks will be a relaxation for the record heat of the first half of June. We will have to wait until we get near the start of July to see how much the El Niño and marine heatwaves in other regions like the WPAC influence the July pattern.
  3. FPizz
    50 even last night. Wanted that .1 less to get into the 40s, haha
  4. Damage In Tolland
    They’ve all trended north all spring . SNE will end up warm sectored in that
  5. MazooWeather
    Slight risk introduced for today for Michiana, 5% TOR
  6. powderfreak
    All emotion all the time? Monday on GFS and Euro looked tailored to you. Obviously a long way out but how do you arrive at Congrats Dendrite on this guidance except for emotion?
  7. Stormlover74
  8. suzook
    Raining again today in ATL area. Apperantly it's rains every day now here. All or nothing.
  9. Kay
    Yes! "Leave the leaves". If everyone would let at least a corner of their yard stay "messy", it would be so much better for fireflies (butterflies, moths...). We manicure and spray way too much to worship the lawn gods.
  10. Damage In Tolland
    And Monday next week . Congrats Dendy again then
  11. Eskimo Joe
    This is just my observation, but the AI stuff (NCAR) seems to over do convection is marginal environments. It's almost like there aren't enough events in it's database.
  12. The Dude
    So glad you guys broke free from the Post. You were literally the only reason to keep the subscription. I'm loving the app, so much great information in a single spot. Congrats! (and stop being a stranger around here!)
  13. weatherwiz
    Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though
  14. The 4 Seasons
    Big update coming soon is adding ERA5 analysis GIF loops for SFC/P-type/Thickness for all storms in the winter storm archive. This will be a major addition to the site and will take several months to complete but some will be up shortly. Most likely these will be dark mode with a northeast and US view.
  15. The 4 Seasons
    I recently did maps and updated the site for all these storms. March 1960, two Feb 1969 storms, Dec 1992, Apr 1983 and others. Just finished Boxing Day Dec 1947 snowstorm last night. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/historic-storms
  16. Today
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That data set seems to have a great deal of -PDO warm ENSO events, which may explain the curious QPF deficit. Super events were very dry over the interior, implying a coastal storm track...small sample size, I know.
  18. SouthCoastMA
    Lawn should be a goner by the weekend. not expecting much Thursday
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't completely dismiss this rather uncanny resemblance to last season, despite ENSO...one hallmark of CC that I have noticed is that these patterns tend to stagnate and become a theme over several seasons.....previously, we had the never-ending cold west/warm east +WPO look, but the north Pacific seems to have flipped starting with the the 2024-2025 season. It has remained rather dry, albeit colder, but ENSO is likely going to be the vehicle for change with respect to having precipitation pick up.
  20. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP is pretty garden variety (15% in a big, broad area). CIPS is pretty unenthused. NCAR is still heavily bullish. I think most of us know this at this point is not going to be an outbreak in our region. But let's see how things evolve with Wednesday convection and timing and such.
  21. high risk
    Deep westerly flow here is never a good environment for widespread convection. That said, the dew points aren’t progged to lower Thursday afternoon as much as I would have expected, and the RRFS is able to generate a few scattered storms. And any storm in this kinematic environment would be interesting. Still, the best chance of some rainfall might be early Friday as a weak wave moves along the front.
  22. snowman19
    And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….
  23. Baum
    Just seems like its been several Junes where we had a 7-10 day stretch of 70’s with periods of rain. Feels like most recent June’s brought on summer heat full bore.
  24. dendrite
    Mon-Tue looking like a shades closer
  25. dendrite
    Min 51.8° Nice morning. On our way to u70s.
  26. ForestHillWx
    58/49… wonderful morning.
  27. Mount Joy Snowman
    Tried to get an early morning photo of MDT for you guys, through the dirty Amtrak window and all. Anyway, can confirm no jets affecting the weather station ha.
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