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Friday clipper could be juiced. And then cold and very windy Saturday

Just stepped outside. It's 34.1 with a rain sleet mix. Could turn to snow.

There’s nothing like a deep winter landscape

East central part of town right near the Manchester line.

Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March? Top 20 analogs Following Feb 500mb Following Feb Air Temp Following March Air Temp The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August

My first thought when I saw the snow hole was that maybe the high res models were overdoing some terrain effect... I didn't realize you were on the Virginia side of the Cumberland Gap, maybe the model just creates some super downslope effect in that area to try and more accurately match the erroneous snowfall totals in that area? I didn't realize the models got fed previous local snowfall data for future forecasts but it makes sense that if the models consistently busted high with respect to the erroneous data, someone would try and tweak the geography or something in the model to make it "more" (though in this case less lol) accurate for that location

Hoping for an inch Friday night.

Re: assimilating data correctly Completely unrelated, but it should show how important proper initialization is. Before June 20th (Enderlin EF5 day), most models were very consistent in showing zero prefrontal development in the potent warm sector due to very warm 700mb temperatures. However, the night before, the HRRR was the only one consistently initializing temps. Other models were running 1-2 °C too warm, which obviously led to incorrectly choking out prefrontal development. Because the HRRR was correctly initializing cooler, it was consistently showing robust prefrontal development ~18 hours pre-event, while it took the other models till mere hours before to start showing prefrontal development. If you follow svwx you know what happened later that day...

In my full shade areas the fluff powder underneath the Arctic ice cap is as dry and fluffy as when it fell. It’s 10 days later!!!

Could be the Case. I contacted NOAA via Email. Not heard back. Spoke with NWS and they couldn't give an explanation to why the Snow Data was doing that. They had my Reports and Cocorahs Reports that all showed well above what the NOHRSC Data showed. They couldn't figure where or how they came up with that. I'd say it has to be them just using the Pennington gap Site Data. That's the only thing I can see how they came up with that. Sad. That Site needs moved to a better Location or just shut down.

RGEM is trending better tilt with every run. Trying its best to go neutral. Also, digging more west with each run.

VERY well stated. The HRRR is generally pretty good with warm season convection (minus some flaws and the inherent challenges with modeling weakly-forced storms) but has never proven itself as a winter weather model.

Switched to light snow as I went from the JPJ lowlands to my dorm back at 600ft plus. Super elevation dependent or just convenient timing who knows.

We suck. Edit: I’m chasing wind and more flurries for Friday/Saturday now.

HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66, but not looking likely at this point.

Some Super Bowl fail on the GFS. Looking for scraps now.

It looks more interesting on gfs and cmc.

Hoping we can get 1"-2" here tho'. Let's see how this trends tomorrow.

GFS was still weak sauce.

Good job @WxUSAF

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions. January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

Maybe 6? It’s really better for severe. Winter definitely isn’t its place, imo.

Good win at least!

Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol

Game ended and walked out into (would you believe it) more light rain. I think it’s snowing up on Shenandoah though!