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March 1-2, 1980 might have an intellectual property claim against the AIFS.

Cape storm trying

ICON for Sunday

Euro Weeklies Control: The overall Weeklies pattern is BN precip over the SE. That isn't always a bad thing as snowy regions won't usually show up as AN for precip...but precip probably is going to be an issue at times. Here is a fun little map. This is a 30 day map from the control run of the Euro Weeklies. Benchmark storm signal present on a 30 day map. Please be sure to temper expectations....we know how modeling has been this winter - not exactly reliable. But I do like the Euro a little bit in the middle of winter while wavelengths are longer(are they really longer right now?!). If the STJ finds some juice???

I think they're too low on Amounts for Plateau and upper Valley Locations. We got 1/4-1/2 inch Sunday and they were saying no accumulation. With the NWF Snshwrs after the synoptic shield leaves there should be scattered additional accs from those. That's not mentioned in their discussion.

Fwiw, 18z Nam gives the combined metro areas a coating to at most an inch tomorrow night, and the Icon refuses to give up on the Cape storm for those N and W, with far NW favored.

Through tomorrow, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Some light precipitation is possible tomorrow evening into Thursday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow or snow showers, especially well north and west of New York City where a light accumulation is possible. Afterward, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the lower and middle 20s. Some teens are likely outside of New York City. Flurries and perhaps a heavier snow shower are possible on Saturday and Sunday as a renewed flow of cold air moves across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least early next week. After January 20th, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts related to closing days of January. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +8.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.667 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (-0.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The Euro Weeklies turned sharply colder this afternoon. That makes sense given how cold the 0z run was(and 12z supported it). The 30 day mean 500 pattern is a trough over the eastern US. There will be a few warmups embedded as the trough tries to stick into the West, but the cold centered in the Canadian Plains and tundra is going to want to run this show - Nunavut, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec. The BN 500 heights are going to almost force a trough in the East as long as its there. The SER will surge NE at times, and then should get beaten back down. The block over the top should continue to allow for the EPO to hold in place. The Weeklies hold this pattern for nearly the entire 46day run(with variations and ebbs and flows) which likely is not accurate, but if it was.........cold period incoming. Somewhere Larry Cosgrove has to be smiling - big tip of the hat if he pulls this off.

As many reasons as there are ensemble members, and then some.

Apri is usually a nice month here. 60's low humidity and cool mornings. May is usually not too bad either

Hot donuts sign is on.....

I don't see it, looks like rain back to Albany

Only a cutter on the 23rd and suppressed on the 27th

MJO phase 7-8, January analogs

Gonna get ahead of the game by reminding everyone to be thankful it’s 45° and raining and we’re avoiding early heat as long as possible

MRX disco from this afternoon... National Weather Service Morristown TN 1240 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Significant Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, with lighter accumulations (dusting to 1/2 inch) for the Plateau and valley from late Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday morning. - Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend, especially over the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 The main concern for the next several days is the potential for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely focus on the potential of snow during that time-frame. For Tonight, surface ridging will give way to increasing bounday layer southwest winds. Sky will be mostly clear in the evening with increasing clouds toward sunrise. Overall, another good radiational cooling night and have lowered mins below NBM guidance. For Wednesday through Thursday, a deepening upper trough across the eastern United States will produce widespread precipitation. For Wednesday, a strong 300mb jet of 120-130 knots over the eastern Ohio valley will place the area under the favored right entrance region. This jet structure will enhance a frontal boundary moving across the area during the afternoon and evening. Strong fronto-genetic forcing is noted around 00Z tightening the thermal gradient along this boundary. Initially widespread rain band will spread across the region associated with the baroclinic band. Vertical temperature profile quickly cools off due to the forcing with the snow level dropping quickly. The higher elevations will see snow by 3 to 4 pm, then snow levels dropping. The dendritic growth zone will be favorable around 00Z then moisture levels become more shallow. REFS shows 60-70 percent probabilities of 4 inch or more across the highest elevations but most of the higher terrain will see 2 to 4 inches across the far east Tennessee mountains with 1 to 3 inches across southwest Virginia mountains. We have issued a winter weather advisory for these areas from 3 pm Wednesday through 11 am Thursday. REFS does show 30 to 50 probabilities of dusting to 1/2 inch (possibly 1 inch higher ridges) across the Plateau and lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Plan on issuing a SPS to message this possibility. Due to orographic lift and cold air squeezing out left over moisture have continued chance of shower showers (high elevations) and flurries for the lower terrain through much of Thursday morning. For Thursday night and Friday, upper trough has moved east of the area with another system moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. The forcing with this system looks to stay north of the area. Milder temperatures and dry conditions expected. with surface ridging. Another deep upper trough digs into the Ohio valley for Friday night and Saturday. A series of short-waves will move across the region producing occasional mixture of rain and snow. Ensemble clusters show varying solutions with this system thus the confidence is low. &&

Special Wx Statement from MRX... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 154 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-069>071-073-VAZ001-005-008-140900- Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan- Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- North Sevier-Lee-Scott VA-Washington VA- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Bearden, Knoxville, Lake Forest, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Hiltons, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 154 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...Rain Changing to Snow Late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening... A cold front will move across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina late Wednesday afternoon and evening bring with it widespread precipitation and colder temperatures. A band of rain will move into the region then mix with and change over to snow by early evening. A brief period of accumulating snow is possible across the Plateau, southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, and central valley. Snowfall of 1/2 inch is possible mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces, and up to 1 inch across the higher ridges. Snow covered roadways are possible across the higher terrain Wednesday evening. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further details or updates. $$

Is cold air ever guaranteed at 41° N and 74° W? I count 3 separate rain events in the LR on both the GFS and ECMWF. In January that can't be that cold. No we don't forecast based on LR OP model runs. But it's risky to guarentee something in the face of directly contradictory evidence.

Only 240-300 hours out... what could possibly go wrong?

Get this guy out of here

The 12z GEFS and GEPS(and prior runs) have roughly 6" of snow for their NE TN ensemble means. Usually, that is a good sign. No idea if those numbers will verify, but I am optimistic that we see some winter weather over the next couple of weeks.

I can't speak for everyone but I suspect if asked today, most would be happy with an average Feb & March even if they finished below normal for the season.

Still to far out and will likely change. Snow showers this weekend for us here Felton disappeared as the system gets pushed OTS. Kick the can all the way to winter 2026-2027. Lol