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GFS FTW here

Hope your right .

My GOD we're getting smoked. Just measured 8.3" for my board clearing. I'm a little over a half mile from that report. It's still pounding good and this is the first time I've seen the snow meet the branches of my trees. Snow depth between 25-27". KEEP THIS GOING PLEASE

Long Island and Jersey shores or just inland are prime spots for thundersnow for this storm in my opinion!

Or the first. Aways to go.

I remember a snow a few years ago That was a heavy rain storm but turned to heavy wet around 2-3am Monday. I think the temp dropped to about 33.5 and the flakes were huge and awesome to look at. It was so heavy it accumulated to 2 inches of pure slush on the roads.

Any particular reasoning for your thinking? I'm personally more worried about areas north jackpotting relative to LI than west. Theres only so far this thing can go west given the location and orientation of the upper level features

Maybe the second map will be correct

might be for most of SNE

Long Island looks to be in the jackpot zone on the models but we know that bands usually set uo elsewhere than where the models have it.

Cmon don’t you know.. Monmouth county jackpot incoming .

High of 50 today. I thought I would try to do some gardening since it was so nice out. Tried to dig up some of the darn onion grass that always shoots up this time of year. The ground was still rock solid frozen. I think this bodes well for our event on Sunday. This event is occurring after a long, long cold period. Ground temps are still really cold. I'm hoping that we bust on the cold side of this event.

Is this possible?? .

Your?

A few things and about temps with this storm 1) An occluding low is becoming vertically stacked, so you need to worry less about the surface low having a good track, but getting skunked by an 850mb low 150 miles west of you flooding the region with warm air 2) The precipitation will be very, very heavy so it will naturally cool the column 3) The deeper the low, the more the pressure gradient force overwhelms the coriolis force resulting in a more direct high->Low wind direction. In other words, winds will be more northerly than one would expect from a low in that position 4) The low eventually will lose northward momentum and pinwheel eastward, so whatever push of warm air there may be (which there wont really) will be gone The big thing I'd be worried about if this thing keeps coming north is a big-ol wedge of dry air just being hurled northward into somewhere over eastern LI/southern New England

you're literally in the most perfect spot for this storm. I like Plum Island as the Jackpot for this storm! Why because there'll be ocean enhanced snow with those gusty winds!

Lol it’s not enough.

Enough?

This is like very thick April sheet drizzle except it’s all garbage flakes. It’s producing a very very dense layer of paste on everything. Temp 31F

I thought you're kids were young

I haven’t been this excited since my ex girlfriend was arrested

So you’re thinking Li isn’t jackpot zone?

Given the high winds, smashed needles, ouch. Stick with 10:1, Widespread 2" QPF!!

Nothing is tougher to remove than sleet, especially when it falls at 15F and freezes solid if people didn't remove it soon enough (I did, but many friends didn't). This won't be a picnic though, either.