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Yeah, yesterday backed off and today gained momentum. Models for you.

That's as good a day as any for a snowstorm for this truck driver. I'm off on Black Friday, and won't go back to work until 12/3, so let it rip...lol

That's an ugly Euro run... It's also a fantastic continuity break for a span of time outside of D7 so meh. But it's attempting a -EPO with zero discernible pattern implications for S of 40 N across the continent. that'd be a neat trick.

Wow, pretty much nothing jives up at all, haha. Wild

I don't know. That doesn't look very significant. Where is the said difference? This is that same eps run as posted and these look basically like a carbon copy, to me.

The map he showed was the OZ,i assume early this morning,mine was yesterday afternoon,so it must have changed between

I seen that this morning,

I'd honestly prefer to get deeper into December.

are we still interested about stratwarm and potential ramifications mid and late Dec?

The affinity and tendency for ULLs to traverse the entire length of CA is going to be a recurring problem (as others have stated). That makes it difficult to break free of the warm/wet -- dry/cold oscillations.

41 with drizzle.

Even the European model as well. Today 0z verses the 17th 0z. Am I saying we will not have massive SER problems? Nope but I am not saying we definitely will either.

For that reason, the climatology factor built into models is a factor in the low accuracy for now even in the medium range. GFS for 11/28 from the 14th model runs to today. Clearly, it is the expected to the observation:

With the SE ridge looking stout, I have to be skeptical about any long lasting cold/winter weather threats. Maybe as we get deeper in December.

I'm up on top of Sugarloaf Mountain at almost 1300' elevation. It feels even colder up here. It's probably 38. It feels like deep winter.

March has been one of our fastest warming months. So the long term trend of snowfall has been down. NYC did come close back in 2018 but they couldn’t match the 10”+ daily amounts from the colder era. I think March 2018 was probably the last shot that NYC had for 10”+ daily snowfall amount. As NYC has been too warm for much March snowfall since then. it’s possible in the future we can see another decent March snow, but it will probably too warm to challenge the 10”+ daily amounts from the colder era. March Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16.5 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-12 2 15.7 1941-03-08 through 1941-03-08 3 13.5 1914-03-01 through 1914-03-01 4 12.5 1960-03-03 through 1960-03-03 5 10.2 1993-03-13 through 1993-03-13 6 10.0 1896-03-02 through 1896-03-02 7 9.0 1967-03-22 through 1967-03-22 8 8.6 1981-03-05 through 1981-03-05 9 8.2 2018-03-21 through 2018-03-21 10 7.8 1956-03-19 through 1956-03-19 11 7.6 2017-03-14 through 2017-03-14 - 7.6 1916-03-06 through 1916-03-06 12 7.5 2015-03-05 through 2015-03-05 13 7.1 1958-03-21 through 1958-03-21 14 6.9 1915-03-06 through 1915-03-06 15 6.5 2009-03-02 through 2009-03-02 - 6.5 1902-03-05 through 1902-03-05 16 6.2 1992-03-19 through 1992-03-19 - 6.2 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-16 17 6.0 1917-03-04 through 1917-03-04 - 6.0 1907-03-10 through 1907-03-10 - 6.0 1906-03-15 through 1906-03-15 - 6.0 1893-03-04 through 1893-03-04 - 6.0 1890-03-19 through 1890-03-19 - 6.0 1870-03-07 through 1870-03-07 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T

I think you're expecting things that the computers are simply not advanced enough for those things not to happen sometimes. Why not just...accept the current limitations/biases and set forecasts/expectations from there instead of railing against the failures as if it's something easy to fix or some conspiracy? Technology simply isn't there yet. NWP (if I'm using that term correctly) is leaps and bounds better than it was 25-30 years ago but (and someone can correct me if I'm off base on any of that).

Everything is looking great my man.

It's quiet for a reason. This will be a brief cooldown after Thanksgiving but right back to at to above average in early December.

I feel like Detroit is just in a shit area for snow. Too far removed from Lake Michigan to get the good LES and generally too far northwest from low pressures that strengthen within the OV and moving out way. And with cutters...they are probably either just too far west for the goods or on the extreme western cutters for of a mix. Its probably clippers mostly for them?

Again, yea. Maybe you did not read my post closely. Last year was a La Nina. There was a deep -PDO. I predicted a -PNA dominated winter & a very warm, low snow east & several did. Despite that, the winter defied the odds & was dominated by +PNA. All I am saying is that its weather....not always just simple. So a little humility is needed.

From Allan Huffman Well for all you #SSWE people out there. Today's 00z EPS showed all members (100%) showing a 10mb U wind reversal over the north pole around 11/28 to 11/29. The implications, are enhanced blocking risk in December and the possibility that the SPV will be further receptive to weakening later in the Winter which could influence the mid/late Winter. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

From Allan Huffman. Well for all you #SSWE people out there. Today's 00z EPS showed all members (100%) showing a 10mb U wind reversal over the north pole around 11/28 to 11/29. The implications, are enhanced blocking risk in December and the possibility that the SPV will be further receptive to weakening later in the Winter which could influence the mid/late Winter. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

12/4/81. Was it the next day the parts of E and C New England were buried? I know there is no correlation... just going down memory lane.

Im getting conflicting data. I just saw a post that said the 00z EPS looks like a go for wind reversal. Although the PV being in a weakened state works as well.