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Good trends at 12z so far. UK kind of splits the difference between the RGEM and NAM.

Ukie looks solid for those who've been on outside looking in so far this season.

obligatory cam post just for you pal... http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/ Coudersport getting raked right now. Northerwoods are and have been a winter wonderland since before Turkey day.

That's quite the snowstorm on the 22nd on the 12z GFS in CNE/NNE.

I will say this….for a storm less than 2.5 days away, there is ridiculous disagreement with the models. You have the NAM/UKMET in one corner showing a full blown snowstorm. The RGEM I guess in the “middle”, the CMC hasn’t run yet for some reason, but assuming it will look like the RGEM. And you have the GFS/RRFS/GFS-AI/ICON with a minor event. Let’s see what the EURO/EURO-AI does…..

Some might call it a candidate?

12z GFS says nahhh .

anybody saw the CMC?

Colin ?

This honestly looks right. Tracks the climo over the last 10 years of the Dc to philly snowhole.

If cherrypickin season is now starting....RGEM is an LSV special, and one to add to the nice list.

Ukie was some rain on the cape.............lol

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

It was awful to far south with the cold.

Man, UK giving me yuletide lapdance.

Um, no? Most of us know, but watching areas well to the south cash in several times while T - .2" are what we have seen in the northern areas as the reality kinda blows. I don't know why up here we would be "spoiled with this pattern". This pattern has been rather shite for many of us. Cold, dry, windy.

It was the opposite - too warm - down in NNJ and SENY yesterday. Showed rain in areas that got accumulating snow.

This was definitely a setup where you’d wanna be in the hills >1000 feet, the difference it makes in snowfall totals is crazy imo, especially when you compare seasonal snowfall totals at DTW to the NWS in White Lake.

The probability for a White Christmas is above climatological levels given the active pattern and at least seasonable cold throughout the first half of the month, but it remains dubious for the coastal plane given the milder turn prior to the holidays. In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm" is more likely than not. A Pacific trough should begin to evolve towards the end of the month in conjunction with a rather stout PV, as a mild pattern ensues to ring in 2026. Look familiar???

If you have NE winds off waters in the upper 40s still, that’s a problem for SE NJ. Most coastal storms this time of year have that problem and warm up SE of 95.

Ukie is similiar to Nam

Looks NAM like, good to see

The MJO has indeed been in Ph 6 for a few days now. Hopefully it doesn't stay long. I suspect it's behind the massive warm ups we keep seeing modeled. Either way, the forecast looks bleak in the long range again. Not that it has been spectacular for our area really.