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It is an interesting phycological effect with the transition seasons. Funny how we adapt to it as we get deeper into each.

Feels like 23°, not 43°.

1st frost advisories up for much of SNE.check on the women and children first.

00z mav mins for tomorrow

42 imby. First butt warmer drive of the season.

42 when I left the house. Had to run some heat in the car this morning.

50 here

38 this morning. Expecting a light freeze tomorrow morning

41 currently

What an early morning sky today. The moon instantly caught my eye with the “star” basically adjacent to the moon. I did not initially realize it was Jupiter, thought maybe Mars. You can also sort of see the un-illuminated part of the moon as the brightness of Jupiter is just enough to give an outline (though it’s obviously exaggerated in the photo)

Zeke Hausfather asks the question, where would we be without renewables?. The answer is: on an energy trajectory without hope. As fast as renewables have increased, we could ramp even faster with more supportive policies. That's how superior the technology has become vs fossil fuels. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/what-if-the-world-hadnt-built-wind

King clickbait

The 00z ECMWF still has a stark 700-300 mb RH gradient early on that just intensifies as it heads N. The pattern/structure at 108 hr for this parameter looks more like a baroclinic leaf than anything. It dependents it to 998 mb, 9 nm weaker than the 00z, which is in line w/ the 1992 and 1994 early Oct events as to am ET low development in the Gulf making landfall. The HAFS-B is much deeper, but also look at its 700-300 mb RH fcst (attached). That configuration strongly suggests a frontal structure and baroclinic leaf. I would find it hard to believe it could drop into the 970s from largely baroclinic forcing. The deepest ET low in the Gulf ion record s 980 mb from the Bliz of 1993 and that had unreal baroclinic support! The GFS does the opposite of the HAFS-B, it makes it strong as a TC early, and *then* weakens is as it heads N. That coulld happen.

Low off 34 degrees this morning. Last fishing event for the year. Father Son event. Got about 10 mile run this morning on the water.

00z GFS was much more realistic with the progression of this system and the synoptic setup. Though it does still bring the TC to hurricane status in the southern and central GOM, significant weakening occurs by landfall due to all the aforementioned issues discussed previously.

Temp down to 45 degrees.