All Activity

The CMC was deadly accurate on our last fail. I'd definitely give it credit. This is starting to look like a classic 90's thump to junk storm. This is why I cringe when I hear "non complicated overrunning" lol.

Puts the ice line at the Turnpike.

Thread time? this storm already kinda blows, esp. being like pd2

Is there parallel super secret CMC any better? If it is, post it. If not, it sucks.

You guys living and dying by one model run at 96 hours is impressive. Even if the Euro looks like the CMC, that doesn't mean thats what's happening. I didn't know the outcome is determined by a couple runs 4 days out. Sure there are some amped runs in there as a trend, but let's look at the synoptics and also we've seen a lot of systems de-amp in the mid range.

Impressive model to model and run to run consistency. Gives me some realistic hope...

CMC seemed to have brought the wedge in stronger than 0z run. We know more times than not, that once we get into the 24 hr frame on a wedge setup like this the models tend to deepen it even more, do you agree with that thinking still?

CMC wasn't terrible with the inital thump

Not really the meso area of our wedge will behave differently in this evolving situation than what is happening west of the apps.

I know this is anecdotal but might be relevant, at about this range ahead of the 2016 storm, the GGEM was the most amped consistently showing crazy ridiculous snowfall totals further north than the other models. It has also been over amped a few times over the last few years when I was rooting for a more amped solution in systems where I was getting fringed...and I got fringed so... All of that to say, if the GGEM ends up on its own with an over amped solution I would not worry too much...if other guidance ends up going that way...then I would worry some.

Look at those soundings. Super deep DGZ. Even when the lift lowers to 900-950mb, it’s like -10 to 12C temps….congrats Scooter

The 12z ggem really keeps the baroclinic zone more west for the more phased dynamics to catch up and act on it rather than escaping east too quickly.

I still owe you a beer from last year. Make it 2 if your prediction comes true

You are the Greatest Writer there’s ever been Tip. Tell me what you want, and I’ll edit it in with your Name.

That is a typical type of storm from what I remember in the 1980s-1990s as a kid in Lenoir. Either way, those are EPIC sledding conditions. It will stay around for a week, too.

12z GEM and GFS maps.

No freaking kidding! Talk about a rocket ship!

If the CMC is right... no one is going anywhere for awhile.

After the glazing many will receive this weekend, those wind gusts in the wake of the storm are .... problematic. Yikes.

Cripes man - not sure you really need to delve into the details of semantics with all your posts like that. From a scientific standpoint, there's no such thing as a "tie" when it comes to records. Temperatures are analog, with infinite granularity, and no two daily peaks are ever actually equal Perhaps there could be a tie from a measurement-device standpoint because no measurement device has infinite granularity - e.g. a given device may measure both 98.8 degrees and 99.2 degrees as "99" and consider it a tie. So thus how often one would expect a tie depends on the granularity of the measurement, and the units (F vs C). That's not mentioned in the OP. The main point I want to make though is - IT DOESN'T MATTER, because even in a "tie is considered another instance of a record" scenario - one would *still* expect a downward slope in the number of records over time. As you say - that's the nature of random number generation. Any new time an extreme peak is seen it means there's a lower possibility that peak (the record - be it a tie or not) will be achieved at any given point in the future, for any given sensor. As such - no I don't think the data presented could be considered "rigged". In part this is because the units and granularity of measurement aren't indicated, but also just the fact that the data trend is flat, and not downward-sloping (for daily record highs) indicates a general warming trend over the period. A rigged data set (e.g. if someone wanted to claim that warming wasn't going on) would show a downward-sloping trend.

Meh... HRRR looks a bit more paltry 1-2" max (15z)

I mean honestly the CMC didn’t change much if at all from 0z

Looks like we get to do it all over again toward the end of January. Very similar setup at 500 late month.

Yeah, I concur with the mean sentiment that these trends aren't ideal. I'm north of 40 but by 15 minutes only. My gut says prepare for near equal amounts of snow and sleet which should be more than enough to cause major disruptions. Not sure how much western middle will see in terms of freezing rain. I imagine we'll score the trifecta. So yeah...no 'top 10' historic snowstorm for BNA but maybe 'top 10' for total frozen QPF. Still a monster storm. Just not with the breakdown we were initially hoping for.

Delete this and someone with some cred start a new one with a synopsis. Please and thanks.