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  2. snowman19
    I agree. At the very least, I think we tie the record RONI and ONI, with a very good chance that we break the records on both of them. I also think this one stays east-based (maybe not as east-based as 1997-98 and 1982-83….several more months to go…..verdict still out obviously) but east-based none the less
  3. Paleocene
    Just noticed that. Looks potentially soggy for much of DC-Balt around 7am
  4. Kmlwx
    The one thing that can elevate a normally garden variety threat would be if the outflow from storms can really make a robust cold pool that propagates off the terrain and gusts out. I don't think we'll have a solid handle on how the day(s) will play out until each one is on top of us.
  5. ChescoWx
    There are some who believe our nightime lows are getting warmer during the summer months. The actual data sees no such warming - almost flat since 1893!
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Yinzer Alley™ go brrr
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, almost all el ninos do that, with the obvious exception of 1986-88 (which peaked in between seasons, in the summer of 87). However, the earlier the peak/fall off, the more likely for a strong la nina the following year. Just look at 1973, and the aforementioned 1988, for example. Those years got very close to, or even breached, -2.0C.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I mean it’s a pretty easy forecast. This is a close the blinds winter for snow lovers. Not every super times a big storm with cold like 82/83 and 15/16. Without that it’s warm pac air with a few modified continental polar cool shots. .
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Doesn't appear to be a very hot summer on tap.
  10. Weather Will
    WB 15Z NBM thru day 4
  11. Brian5671
    Totally agree but he's usually looking for cold/snow so interesting he thinks warm and snowless
  12. Chicago916
    Get ready to Day 3 Moderate?
  13. franklin NCwx
    We are in a drought in the mtns
  14. Torch Tiger
    S Wey special
  15. mjwise
    Enhanced for severe wind also expanded into Chicagoland on the new D2.
  16. high risk
    Looks like we may be dealing with convection for the Wednesday morning commute.
  17. luckyweather
    New D2 Tor Outlook. Seems like SW WI always gets the bullseye these days.
  18. Today
  19. FPizz
    Means absolutely nothing just like every other long range forecast. Accuracy on those, no matter how they grade themselves, is similar to pin the tail on the donkey
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Above average temps https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000
  21. CoastalWx
    Yeah possible I guess. Starting to get crispy here.
  22. SouthCoastMA
    Absolutely disgusting storm.
  23. Malacka11
    I am in favor of daylight visibility at the expense of overall wow (to a point) so I enjoy that some models pop a mid-afternoon line for tomorrow now. Obviously don't want that to end up dudding the whole day or shifting the crosshair for later by accident but if we could sneak a good hit in the afternoon and then another at night that would be baller. Not even to speak of getting another even better chance Thursday to my understanding
  24. SACRUS
    Day 3 Thu, expect Friday that to push east
  25. Torch Tiger
    Yeah, these types of setups always trend towards best instability/theta-e, and that's nearly always going in the wrong direction. unless there's a strong cf squall line, or it's this type of setup but pegged for NNE many days out, forget it
  26. SACRUS
    The center of the heat looks to settle into the southeast in that period we'll see if it pushes inorth enough nto the NYC region or teters just south towards SNJ / PHL or DC.
  27. King James started following Severe threat 6/10-6/12
  28. snowman19
    The normal peak time for El Niños is almost always November/December. That’s the time (November/December) that the majority of models show this one peaking
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