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About the same

ouch

We can call it late-mid January. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Reggie in the box looking confident.

I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully

The sleet line sorta races and then slows, a 30 mile south shift in the upper levels would do wonders.

LMAO! Somehow I am still holding on. This is becoming a disaster at this point. Back to the banter thread with me.

Thanks

And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp )

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

Note to self: Do NOT write off winter and check out in mid Jan, even if things don’t look great and it started slow. Peak climo in SNE is late Jan to mid Feb, historically that’s the timeframe where most of our huge storms happen. Winter doesn’t just end after mid January just because it’s a La Niña.

Approx. the same or even better than 18Z, I believe?

One guy says icon is great one says it okay

8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho). 10:1 is like 6/7

NYC could see 14. Do I think it happens? No. I think 6-12” is a good for everywhere right now. The usual areas in suffolk county have a way better chance by history itself.

Big warm layers can easily reside in between those two levels. Some of the forecast soundings I have seen for this event show that exact scenario. The NAM precip type code is rock solid, based on the forecasted temperature profile.

RGEM/ICON look ok, but we're about to flip shortly after 12z

One thing could happen if you get the low where the NAM is this will try Damn,look how fast that is also..lol

Icon coming in colder and clocking dc at hour 60

RGEM looks a touch colder through 60 - still snow for most.

Definitely gonna sleet just a matter of how hard it dumps for those first 8 hrs

the only thing that i'll be looking for tonight is see if the GFS changes, and i'm hoping the best model Euro AI goes a bit south from earlier runs! I'll go to sleep happy!