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Sorry yes please post your anomalies for August below do so before 6z (2am eastern time) August 1st. So far Don S. still holds a solid lead but we are getting into the time of year where things will start to be a bit more chaotic and forecast moves can happen quick.

Unfortunately it was longly this time. I love that you have a lot of juice though. Please don’t waste it.

Unfortunately starting from a record low in winter will have this happen. The area of 80N and even close to 70N has been near normal or below normal temp wise most of the summer thus far. This is what you want to see in a good retention year but again starting point always matters. If this holds into August we should continue to slide above that 2012 number and get more inline with recent years probably 6-8th lowest roughly. Im honestly surprised more so we didn't take a massive hit this year but presume next year will likely start another leg down. Fingers are crossed it doesn't.

So the new AMO data is not de-trended like the old AMO data I used. If you de-trend it for time/global warming, correlation (r-squared) is over 0.8 between the two data sets for Nov-Apr. I also converted the PDO data back to the old Nate Mantua/JISAO methodology which ran about +0.5 more positive (2014-15 was +2.07 from Nov-Apr by that method, now shows as +1.59). Converted to the old methodology, where PDO was +2.07 and not +1.59 in 2014-15, I'd expect PDO in the -0.25 to +0.25 range for Nov-Apr (but it will show as -0.75 to -0.25 probably on the current methodology overall). AMO looks like it will be in the +0.20 range. Even with the de-trending, AMO was bonkers in 2023-24, +0.60 for Nov-Apr, warmest ever v. baseline and long-term trends. Part of why the 1972-73 pattern held (warmest NE 1/4 US, much colder elsewhere) but not the actual temperature pattern that year (much hotter). It's also really interesting seeing how weird the last solar cycle was in retrospect. We're quite similar to the down-slope of the cycle that peaked in 1968-1969 at 155 (we peaked at 149 in 2024-25). The QBO data stopped in Feb 2026. However, the six most similar years to 2025 for QBO, by objective absolute value measure are: 2014 then 1972 then 2021 then 1974 then 1979 then 1958. The winters starting 2015, 1973, 2022, 1975, 1980, 1959 are all +QBO winters in the +0 to +10 range. El Ninos in that QBO range are 1957, 1963, 1969, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2004, 2006, 2015, 2018. The Jamstec believe it or not has the Modoki index reaching +0.95 or so for Dec-Feb, v. +0.5 forecast for Dec-Feb forecast in July 2023 for Dec 2023-Feb 2024. I think it will trend lower, but its probably recognizing (correctly) that this event will decay rapidly in late winter from east to west, with the warmth maybe peaking in Nino 3.4 in Nov/Dec/Jan and then retreating to Nino 4 in Jan-Mar before collapsing in Summer. I'll guess +0.65 for the Modoki index. I lean toward something like this now that my old analog system is fully up to date. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty cold stretch in the East later in the winter, probably late-Feb to mid-Mar for about three weeks if I had to guess when you do briefly see pretty ideal Modoki conditions. I think Dec-Feb overall is pretty warm almost everywhere, especially North, even with a few intense, but brief cold snaps. Winter ONI DJF AMO N-A Sun Jul-Jun ONI DJF(p) Modoki PDO N-A Monsoon QBO DJF Weight 1963 0.8 -0.036 29.1 -0.4 0.48 -0.88 5.06 4.9 x1 1982 2.3 -0.156 129.2 0.0 -0.49 0.95 3.84 10.9 x3 1997 2.3 0.220 54.9 -0.4 -0.66 1.24 6.58 -1 x1 2004 0.5 0.222 55.3 0.3 0.48 0.47 4.06 0.3 x1 2015 2.6 0.211 55.8 0.6 0.32 1.70 5.02 9.2 x2 2018 0.9 0.049 5.5 -0.8 0.41 0.51 4.84 8.8 x2 Blend 1.75 0.05 64.96 -0.09 0.03 0.81 4.69 7.29 x10 Target 3.20 0.15 75.00 -0.40 0.65 0.30 3.67 5 Long-term, since Nino 3.4 is a stronger warm signal in the North and weaker in the south, the composite should actually be more extreme than depicted by the blend I used - If you exaggerate the features of the winter to account for record setting warmth in Nino 3.4, I think you end up with something like this. Very warm in the North, still actually pretty snowy, and not really cold anywhere. I think we'll likely have a pretty cold December in the Southwest, and that's maybe the most extreme cold temperature month for the winter nationally. Sort of a joke map - but my current rough idea. Look at December - I think it will be warmer than this - by a lot in the warm areas and likely colder in the SW by quite a bit too. Now look at the Jamstec and the composite. The east-based look is real and present. But it will likely be breaking down by mid Nov to mid Jan. I'm not warm enough for the Nino zones - you can't get a +3.0 to +3.5C in Nino 3.4 with the anomalies. But I essentially was able to validate that the Jamstec isn't crazy. It has a canonical +PNA - very warm NW/cool SE. I don't quite think we get that with the AMO / PDO as they are.

What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.

Obviously, I understand that if you reach through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July. Anyway, I did address this within the narrative. The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite. All of that being said, if it is still possible to pop a strong GOA low in the seasonal mean, this El Niño will do it.

Been saying the same thing. I think a ton of it is a mental issue, but it really comes down to the type of person he is too. He gets upset at himself and that just gets in his head. He really should have a sports psychologist to help him because he gets in his own head all the time. On a technical level, he is chasing so many offspeed pitches, it’s insane at this point. He is susceptible to it and the league knows it. He is a huge reason we are underperforming. Can’t make up that kind of talent.

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA.

I am going to be in rainy El Nino Heaven all autumn, winter and spring with that RAGING RECORD NINO STJ! This calls for an outright Brobdingnagian Wooo-Hoooo!

It’s endless summer here with a very uncomfy 94 high at KSAV. I haven’t had significant rains at my place since way back on July 14th! However, Mon into the evening is looking promising. If that weren’t to deliver, it would be sprinklers time again.

Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.

I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.

I don't think AMO is directly tied to the polar domain, though.... Yea, I have gradually been expanding my purview since I started that blog in March 2015.

I can't believe how dry last Winter was in the STJ areas! I've been thinking maybe RONI should be -1.0 to -1.5 vs ONI.

I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too

Don't be so mean.

Days are starting to get shorter, fall is lurking, and less than 5 months from Christmas, but Summer wants to remind everyone it is still summer. Dews For Days in the LR on both the GFS and EURO. Looking toasty. (really would have come up with something more consise but been dealing with a persistent migraine attack for the last week and a half) Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Ew Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

0z GFS caved to the EURO: Southern Vermont Special Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Rapid City, SD set their all time record high temperature at both its recording stations today with records going back to 1888. 112 at KRAP, 110 downtown.

Yea, it's tough to convey your thoughts with surgical precision in an analog composite, but I hedged heavily throughout the narrative that confidence was much higher in a +NAO than +AO....at one point, I calculated the DJFM mean of the composite and the AO was almost dead-on neutral...barely positive.

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/205-2026/PNSLWX/c88b4b76421e8f7e48bd910a1aa7a19e Didnt see this posted yet

-H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter.

Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder. Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.