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Wait til there’s a bonafide winter threat on the table for SNE…we’ll have to wait until an hour before go time, before we have a handle on what may unfold. Seems like that’s the trend the last several years. We’re going backwards it seems.

What year did we start into this extremely negative PDO cycle?

Its forecast for Melissa was one of the worst I’ve ever seen for a “top tier” model.

Anyone have any luck up there?

A better picture. It’s really pretty out.

BWI: 4.3” DCA: 2.8” IAD: 6.1” RIC: 7.1” SBY: 11.1”

But, but, but, doesn’t it’s 500mb pressure anomalies score better in Eurasia/Nepal around Mount Everest.

Another snowy night. Stake was down to 5” this afternoon with compaction, but we’ve added another inch or so since then

There was also this Rehoboth Beach experienced a significant blizzard and "bomb cyclone" on January 4, 2018, which brought heavy snow, strong winds, and whiteout conditions. The storm resulted in a blizzard warning for Sussex County, an estimated 8 to 12 inches of snow, and a Level 1 driving warning issued by the Governor.

I was curious so I looked into it a bit. Following a multi year cold ENSO stretch when it did go warm ENSO, 9/12 times the follow up Nino was a moderate or stronger event. I would bet against a super Nino though, given we just had a +2 ONI peak El Niño 2 years ago. Gun to head, I would bet on our next El Niño being either next year or the year after, and being similar in strength to 02-03 or 09-10.

It has been truly horrific lately

I set 8 new either record lows or 'cool maxes' between 1/292017 and 1/9/2018, lowest temp was -2.8 degrees. Warmest was 32.8 degrees. Below 20 degrees for 79 hours between 1/5 and 1/8.

All these updates, and they arguably get worse. WTF?

Gfs is borderline unusable.

I’m not talking about the longer scale -PDO. Within that are shorter term extreme phases. That’s what’s been killing is. We can snow in a somewhat negative PDO. Look at the 1960s! But past mini extreme -PDO periods (typically 4-7 years where the PDO is below -1 most of the time) are always god awful for snowfall. We have to be coming to the end of this mini super negative PDO phase. None going back 125 years last longer than about 6-7 years.

Another snowy evening here too. About 3/4” fresh snow since this evening.

Ironically, there’s an expression for that ”cop out”

Well, the wind machine is back on here. Been breezy (15-25 mph at times) from W most of afternoon, soon as the sun set it hit another gear. Just had a 38 mph gust 5 minutes ago. Currently W at 24 gusting to 35.

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but the end of December 2017 into January 2018 was one of the coldest stretches I can remember in recent history. I recall there was like a 10 day stretch where it didn’t get above freezing in Baltimore. Many nights in the single digits, many days that struggled to get out of the low 20s.

Kind of limited data. History does say the average PDO cycle is just about as long as we've been in since 1998, but we seem to be at the most extreme part of the cycle now and common sense says that's probably another 10-15 years to neutralize. I know the NOAA has been doing subsurface passes in the PDO area, and there is warmer water down to -200m now more than ever before, which could be 5-10 years to change phases cleanly. There are sometimes 2-3 year phases blips in a long term opposite phase though.

Wut. Man it's too hard to get a Nino it takes forever! Or does a -PDO regime naturally produce more ninas?

Composting oysters?

Yeah but after 5/6 La Nina years, we have a tendency to flip for the next 3-5 years, and that happens immediately after 4/6 consecutive ENSO events or greater.. I'd give it 2/3 chances for El Nino next year, even if it's weak..

Kp isn’t great, but we’re decently south now. Just need to clear out.

Trumbull CT - 400"