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And imho it's not the speed of the pac jet, it's the placement of the strongest portion of the jet and it's exit region. If the jet is favored equatorward and its exit region is just south of the aleutians, we get ridging over AK and cold air flowing south into the CONUS towards the east.

That low for 12/5 needs to be in the Florida Keys at this point for me to take it serious at this range on the GFS.

Been using fake effect for a while now.

Works for temps and snow

0.07 here.

That last week of December looks mint. Unfortunately it's 5 weeks away Until then, looks seasonable for us (upper 30s mid 40s on average)

Off topic but tornado lovers might get a kick out of this website I found off Reddit: https://www.tornadopath.com/tornado-history-near-me

07-08 is the nearest to a W2W winter I've experienced south of Fort Kent, and even that one had a very mild week in January, as 7-13 averaged 17° AN and the 8th was +26, greatest AN day we've had in Jan. Fortunately, that thaw had no accompanying deluge.

A new forum term for the winter months!

FAF

Only .21" measured after it sprinkled and lightly to at times moderately rained for 12 plus hours yesterday. Makes .63" for the month now. Temp was 41.3 at 7 am report time, warmed to 40-41 around midnight and stayed there all night after being in the 30's majority of the day. Currently 51.8/46.7 at 10:45 under partly cloudy skies.

still warm enough for brunch on the patio ...

I mean yeah, deriving the effect of an SSW is a much more complex problem, but no one's debating whether or not it will occur. That's what I find comical about this post.

AAM forecast (CFS ensemble): big change for mid Dec vs forecast from two days earlier (warning: these are highly volatile on right side of graph): 11/18/25 AAM forecast: suggests it may go + (El Ninoish) in mid-Dec?!? 11/16/25 AAM forecast: 11/11/25 AAM forecast: @snowman19

There is a reason Judah is a well respected meteorologist. He doesn't jump on cold because he knows it's hard for us now. If you bet against sustained cold in winters in the mid atlantic/NE nowadays you'll be right 9 times out of 10.

Spot on re:acorns. They are demolishing my new sprigs of fall seeding grass.

Agree Pattern is in the transition stage.

Lol what's nail-biting about it? Every single ensemble member supports it and about 90% are on board for a full reversal. Seems a bit clickbaity

.36". It's something at least.

That camera is behind the 3 fields in the area where i'm hunting, And only 40 yds from where i park my truck, , With no acorns, It looks like there in the fields eating grass, There was another buck and a doe in the first 90 mins there, Even if i would've been there this morning, I would have been 10 mins further NE of there at my blind where my 3rd camera is, But, Tomorrow, I'll be there, That's 2 days in a row there moving thru.

Credit cards work as scrapers in a pinch. Or so I've been told...

Oh my!

Overnight rainfall here only 0.06". Most of the precip was to our S and SW.

More stuff related to weak to moderate Dec phase 8 having been the coldest Dec phase 8 MJO on average: Dec 9-18 of 1989 was frigid/~tied for the coldest Dec phase 8 in the E US since 1974 along with 5.5” of snow at Baltimore (2 events) and it was weak/near the circle and slow moving: also note that it stayed frigid through this very weak phase 1 and the moderate phase 2: About tied with the frigid 1989 was the very cold 12/6-9/2002. Note that this phase 8 wasn’t too far outside of the circle (moderate phase 8): Temperatures are based on Baltimore as an E US proxy.

like this is just a fail. the stronger Pacific jet actually helps in Ninas most of the time, not hurts