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Euro still being conservative

Def signs of a rotting deformation band from SNH down thru ORH and CT

33 with some very light rain

What are you referring to? Just woke up and haven’t seen anything bad yet. I do need some coffee though

When I started my walk, it was drizzling., but it quickly started mixing with snow within the first five minutes, and it's been steady snow for about the last thirty minutes of my walk.. The smell of winter is in the air. What compelled me to take a break from my walk and post, was the sound of a distant locomotive air horn echoing throughout the valley. That sound is without a doubt, is my absolute favorite sound of of winter.. It's one of the most lonely an haunting sounds, but also quite majestic and beautiful at the same time. I find the locomotive horn to be a testament to some of the great generations that came before, and times when things just didn't move so damn fast. 30,000mm waterproofing doing its thing.

It definitely varies. Some yards less.

Snow or mix seems most likely

Bluemont winery will look spectacular if that map is accurate

Wow, more than I have here. I have 6-8 in southern areas, maybe 8-12 in shaded areas

6z EC running and continues that trend...

It’s sucks for such a strong low how tiny the precip shield is.

This was how I expected it to eventually go down. The 40" over SNJ seemed too implausible. LI, NYC, CT, up through Mass seemed more doable. I'm jacked! I'm jacked to the tits!

@Newman What map (800, 700mb) would you recommend to see where banding is likely to set up? I use tropical tidbits.

Aigfs brings low from LI over canal. That’s a nice track for the ski resorts. .

This crazy shit man. Very excited for this.

It’s why I’ve been very confident in 4-8in for Lehigh Valley and Berks.

Mount holly upped my area to 18-25”

Crazy to see when the non US models have a 10 to 14 inch storm, someone is going to have an epic bust come tomorrow afternoon

Yeah you’re fine. It just looks like guidance was milder in SNE. Not necessarily a coast thing. I guess it could trend back. Wednesday looks to have some snow.

I ended up with 0.60" of beneficial rain from that last event. That took out almost all of the remaining snow/ice cover IMBY from the colder NE-facing areas. The glacial plowed/shoveled mounds still survive however!

The ticks east in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR guidance are very noticeable, we may start to be seeing Berks/Lehigh on the western fringe now with significantly less totals IF models are right. I'm still inclined to believe banding reaches further west but we will 100% have to now cast with this

You also very well may a screw zone whose width is more narrow than the 40 mile mean banding error for our best models. That 40 mile error at 6 hour forecast, which was from big technical paper NWS did last year. Basically what I'm saying is this narrow screw zone is functional impossible to accurately predict until it's already set up. A true Impossible circumference for forecasters. People wouldn't even know how to process a forecast that is "80% chance of 12"+ over our 200 mile wide viewing area, however somewhere within will be a 20 mile wide band at angle between 90 degrees and 45 degrees where it quickly drops to 3" for the center 10 miles. We unfortunately won't know whose in this band until storm is well underway. Plan accordingly. " Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

75mph gusts will drift you just fine.

Not up here and I think in a decent chunk of even southern New England away from the coast