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Time to fire up a thread! Its a lock!

Can always count on the 18z NAM/3kNAM to go extra weenie.

IIRC that wave had a deepening trend closer to verification as well as the PV lobe became better resolved, I remember having some back and forth with @RCNYILWX about it at the time. The issue this time is that the upstream ridge isn't quite as amplified as that, and there's a bit more phasing required here for a higher end outcome.

I don’t believe the euro verbatim either, but that is what it currently shows.

18z 3k NAM / HRRR on board

Clown range 18z NAM shows a trend to have better mid levels. That can really improve output regardless of modeled qpf (which is decent as is).

This is a very good and valid point.

I’d actually take that Euro lol

This.

Chase this? Jesus, sign of the times...

Sell.

Am at Thanksgiving family dinner. If All goes well one or two threads will begin 9pm tonight or7am Friday. If it’s snow it will be for odds on CP first measurable snow sleet No time to elaborate right now. Have a wonderful family dinner. Walt

I don’t disagree. I won’t believe it until it’s happening. But all we can do is look at modeling today. And some do give us snow. All you can say

Eye candy that won't materize, GFS does this in the tropics on a regular basis. Heavy rain at my place ahead of a cold front, last rain and 80s I will see for a few days. I'm holding my 7.5 prediction for Western burbs. One more shot to adjust tomorrow.

We wait until we see the whites of the weenies.

Ironically enough I was going to mention this myself as well. Definitely some similarities.

I would, of course, love for the 18z HRRR to be correct, but it is likely too strong and juiced. It has a 1004 mb low, whereas the globals have a 1008-1012 mb low. This HRRR run would probably finish with 16+" in Cedar Rapids, which I very much doubt. Half of that is more likely. The CAMs will probably come back to earth as the start approaches.

500 mb evolution with this does remind me a good deal of a slightly less impressive version of GHD II. Trough/jet streak matures in a very similar way and the thermos aren't terribly far off from that either. More likely to taper out with eastward extent though.

Meh. After the last 5 years, it would be nice to even be in the game. It’s obviously a flawed setup, but everything is now

He’s not a snow lover and his comments to me are unusual for him so I’m quite hopeful and 12/5 looks good analog wise

It’s a sheared our tilted system, but we’ve seen this before. Doesn’t scream suppression verbatim.

Widespread snow cover over the northern USA coming. We’re looking at 4-8/6-10 here Saturday and New England similar mid week. I’ll miss the New England event but won’t miss the fun here Saturday. Hopefully more in the pipeline next weekend and beyond.

Winter storm watch for the entire GRR CWA. Local P&C showing 8” and still snowing by Sunday. Looks like gusty winds in the 30-40 mph range, so blizzard conditions at times. Still some time for the rug to get yanked but I feel pretty confident in a solid 6-10”+ throughout the sub.

Yes... I agree, the look of vort max and its progged track is not one screaming suppression? At least not yet. Its trend (vort max) moving forward is something to watch closely over the next few runs. Nice to see a post focusing on a forecasting issue.

The 12z Euro trended south and eastward. Overall, was a nice run as was its ensemble.