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Omg we are talking past each other. Yes since 2017 -pna hasn’t worked. I’ve said that. But that’s one of the reasons since 2017 has been the worst 9 year snow drought in our history. You’re using the absolute worst 9 years EVER as your baseline! If that’s what you’re saying is normal we’re Fooked and I might as well find a new hobby. I’m saying I am assuming things go back to normal (or at least better than the last 9 years have been) at some point. Baltimore is only averaging 12” if snow since 2016! There are 2 reasons for that. 1) we’ve been in a hostile PDO pac regime. Past periods like this were low snow periods. But this one has been worse. Much worse! Why? Because we aren’t even getting the fluke occasions snows we used to get in a crap pacific pattern. You think that continues? You think 12” is jjys what is normal in Baltimore now?

I've never seen a +450dm N. Pacific High and negative heights in Alaska and snow!

Most of our snowstorms with a hostile PNA were warm storms that were barely cold enough to snow with warm temps on either side of the storm. Lots of examples where it was 48 the day before and 47 the day after and like 55-60 within a few days either side. At least the Jan Feb ones. March we have more examples of colder regimes with a hostile PNA due to shorter wavelengths. But we have snowed in “warm” regimes before if we get a perfect storm track. Feb 1987 being the best example!

PNA has highest correlation with our temps in January (0.40 correlation) and February (0.35 correlation). It has a 0.15 correlation in December and March.

My kids don’t watch it! Have you watched some of the past shows? Or some of the stuff on MTV? I probably don’t want them seeing some of that no…but I don’t remember the outrage at this stuff that’s been going on for YEARS. It’s been like 20 years since the wardrobe malfunction and forget the mistake how bout the fact he was mock groping her which caused the malfunction. This is a lost cause and been this way a long time so why the sudden outrage now? I suspect I know why.

Well yeah, there are 6 main patterns: 1. WPO 2. EPO 3. Gulf of Alaska 4. PNA 5. NW-based NAO (Could call it AO) 6. south-based NAO Most impactful to our temps is EPO.

A 17 year low…nice.

I don't know why, but the PNA is more uniform now than it was in the 1960s and 1970s. 3-wave patterns that almost always carry through. I get this from tracking just about every Winter since 2017. I've said it before, storms that models have snow around Day 7-8 with a strong -PNA or +EPO end up rain >90% of the time. Maybe the jet stream is north, maybe it's something with the AMO, but I don't see this storm threat as a close call at all. And I know as we get closer it will trend toward more of a snow miss and rain or nothing. Now if we end up 30 degrees and sunny on that day, I will say you were right - the SE ridge was not underestimated, but that's a strong anomaly in the Pacific! It's not just PNA, it's like 3 standard deviations. In March we get more neutral heights with -PNA but in Feb the SE ridge correlation is still pretty strong: [default of map below is positive, so negative pna is opposite]

Boston SSTs now coldest since 2009. https://seatemperature.info/february/boston-water-temperature.html

NAO is trending negative again toward the end of Feb. Pac ridge is becoming a WPO poleward ridge linking to the AO. Yea the pna sucks but in late Feb and March we should be able to overcome that. At least we have in the past. PNA is the most important index the first 1/3 of winter, equal with AO the middle 3rd, and dropped in importance once past Feb 15 in my snowstorm analysis.

Have you plotted them when there isn’t a strong PNA? A mean will miss anomalies or exceptions to a rule.

Definitely thought the Xfinity and Budweiser commercials were the best, though I only caught a couple parts of the first half.

But you’re acting like we can’t snow with a shitty pacific. Early in the season the season that’s true. Back when I looked at every 5”+ Baltimore snow I did note there are almost no December or early Jan snows without PNA EPO help. None. But Feb and March have a ton of snows with a hostile EPO PNA. And in most of those it was a setup very similar to this. A split flow and The Atlantic helped suppress a pac wave that ejected from the southwest and it had to work with marginal pace puke air. None of them were cold storms. Some were storms where it was 50 the day before and after the storm and it snowed with temps of 33 degrees during the storm. But we had a ton of those storms. Now I have also noted there been extinct for a while now. And the last several examples of an attempt at these ended up perfect track rainstorms. One was that storm around the Super Bowl in 2023. These haven’t been working anymore. Lately the pacific puke air masses have been too warm to overcome even when a storm is suppressed under us. It’s just a 38 degree rainstorm. Maybe that’s the new reality. Maybe I’m stubborn and don’t want to admit this doesn’t work anymore because some of these storms were my favorites. Wet snow paste bombs in otherwise garbage patterns. Take a look at the Feb 1987 storm. The pac was utter garbage but the Atlantic forces that wave under us and we had a snowstorm with temps of like 32-34 degrees the whole storm! Also historically you can’t use the same heights the overall heights are much much higher now. A +250 ridge in 1960 would be a +400 now!

No thanks to huggers with a retreating high.

0z ICON just Rain.

They've done that with accumulation amounts during the past 2 storms, too. Start high and then go down, slowly.

2000 Ravens defense did even better than that

2000 Ravens drfense did even better than that

I love late season huggers....ocean is tame and CF comes inland. Hopefully we get it close.

The greatest defense in the Super Bowl era, and I'm not a fan of the team, was the Pittsburgh Steelers "steel curtain" defense of the 70s. They held the Minnesota Vikings to 119 total yards in a 16-6 win in SB 9.

I wish i graduated eight grade. I don’t even have a kindergarten diploma.

Not much of a fight.

Congratulations Mike Mac!!! WELL deserved!

This has nothing to do with morality, it has to do with the degradation of women that has become acceptable in this Country. It’s sickening.

I remember growing up that it was always warmer there until the lake froze and then it would be absolutely brutal with the wind coming off the lake.