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I feel like 2-3"+ is a lock for you and I.

Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group verifies... extensive SNE LI NJ. You dont need a hurricane to make large interruptions in daily life and so whether or not NHC comments on the potential for a subtropical event , detours etc are likely here SAT-SUN. The only reason I say likely--- its the non EPS eastward modeling. EPS 5h etc track looks pretty ideal for a bashing in the NYC sub forum I95 eastward. and the FGEN R+ of 1-3" may well be aligned up to I84. Very early and still room to underperform eastward (Caution). Just so taken aback but the model differences at 72 hours in this 12z/23 cycle.

Rainfall probably will be highly variable from area to area. Not going to be a uniform amount across the region

This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this. Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher? That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play. Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy. Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat. Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding. Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow. Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph and 50 mph Suffolk county. Good gradient with high to the north.

The rain won’t be an issue, it’s the wind and coastal flooding. Looks to be an issue on all models

AI mean makes more sense to me fwiw.

This is the internet now. Sports forums, weather, Reddit, doesn’t matter… everyone complaining about something .

So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts.

https://www.youtu.be/J7GBxc_VwcE treys fall winter severe weather tornado forecast is out now .

Although GFS might be too far east, I don't know if those western solutions are realistic either. GFS and Euro seem to develop a vort related to convection and the solutions result in the differences we see. GFS has the convection further east. Also, could the Euro guidance be treating this as more warm core, and therefore be more prone to sling west with the environmental flow? Whereas something that is becoming more extratropical may want to move more to the N and NE where the better combo of warm air advection and positive vorticity is maximized. I'm just thinking out loud.

It may ramp up more over the next two days…that’s a distinct and plausible possibility.

Although we’re days away and it’s already pretty breezy out

Euro way west of 0z

Definitely but probably need winds over 40mph for that to be an issue.

It’s gonna be a significant storm for SNE. Heavy rain and gusty winds- 25-40 inland. 45-60 at the coast. There you go.

Euro and Euro AI basically have the same idea...but it's nothing super impressive. However, makes me think the eastern solutions are probably going to correct west even if Euro and Ai correct east a bit.

Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling.

This will be like the blizzard was in Feb. On the Wednesday before the blizzard hit(which it hit on a Sunday, like this is likely going to), the storm was gone…folks wrote it off. Then on Thursday afternoon it came back, and it went back to the big storm scenario like it was earlier that week. This will do the same as far as the modeling goes.

Hard to say for the city proper. But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts

Euro looks similar to 6z..slingshot west. Says Tblizz had better contact divorce attorney

had to turn on the heat last night..

Euro coming west

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?