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There were some pretty bad takes during this past winter.

Yup. Impressive month up there even if it’s just dead rad cooling airmasses. Kinda surprised they haven’t broken one record low max although they’ve come close a few times. They’ve had 4 or 5 low mins though. But just a relentless barrage of 25 to 35 BN days.

This is will be the most progressive exit and transitions from winter to spring I’ve seen since living up here. The average winter conditions to annihilation of the pack in early March, and then last freeze March 29. Really nice. It’s remarkably easy to see, in that we’ve had no -NAO conditions forecasted or otherwise , and so it’s just the northern jet migrating subtly north due to the seasonal tide of the increasing sun angle…

Members 15.6k Location:NYC-NJ Posted March 27, 2025 Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1998) NYC: 83 (1998) LGA: 83 (1998) JFK: 80 (1998) Lows: EWR: 22 (2014) NYC: 20 (1894) LGA: 23 (2014) JFK: 23 (2014) Historical: 1890 - An outbreak of tornadoes occurred in the Ohio Valley. One of the tornadoes struck Louisville KY killing 78 persons and causing four million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1932: Just six days after Alabama's deadliest tornado outbreak, more severe storms broke out across the same area hard hit before. A farm at Lawley, AL in Bibb County was struck by tornadoes on both days. The most powerful tornado of the day was an F3 that touched down about 2:30pm in Bibb County and roared into Chilton and Coosa Counties killing five people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1950 - A three day snowstorm in the High Plains Region finally came to an end. The storm produced 34 inches of snow in 24 hours at Dumont, located in the Black Hills of South Dakota, and a total of 50 inches. (David Ludlum) 1964: Great Alaskan earthquake left 100 dead in Anchorage, Alaska. The tsunami generated by the earthquake in Prince William Sound, Alaska slammed a 2-by-12-inch plank into a truck tire that passed about three feet through the tire. Waves reached 103 feet above the low - tide mark. (Ref. The National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, in Boulder, Colorado) (Ref. More Information On This Earthquake) 1971: The temperature climbed to 100° at Wichita Falls, TX. This is a record for hitting the century mark so early in the season and the warmest day ever in March. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984 - The temperature at Brownsville, TX, soared to 106 degrees, and Cotulla, TX, reached 108 degrees, equalling the March record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - The second blizzard in less than a week hit eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at San Isabel CO. Winds gusted to 50 mph at Goodland KS. The high winds piled snow into massive drifts, closing roads for days and killing thousands of cattle. Snow drifts thirty feet high were reported in northwest Kansas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Temperatures rose quickly, then dropped just as rapidly, in the central U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s. In southeastern Colorado, the temperature at Lamar CO reached 91 degrees. Strong southerly winds gusted to 63 mph at Gage OK. Strong northwesterly winds, gusting to 61 mph at Goodland KS, then proceeded to usher much colder air into the area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Two tornadoes were reported, and there were 77 other reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Willow OK and Bartlesville OK. Twenty-six cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 84 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Temperatures dipped into the teens and single numbers in the northeastern U.S. Scranton PA tied their record for the date with a morning low of 18 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and lower 70s in the Pacific Northwest. The afternoon high of 65 degrees at Astoria OR equalled their record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Severe thunderstorms were widespread over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Great Lakes area with more than 300 reports of severe weather, including 28 tornadoes. Four F3 tornadoes struck the state of Michigan. Another F3 tornado injured 18 people and did $12 million dollars in damage in the Nettle Lake area in Ohio. Softball sized hail fell at Portage, MI and a wind gust of 89 mph was recorded at Franklin, WI. Cold air was drawn down on the backside of the storm. Snow began to fall over the northwestern counties in Iowa shortly after daybreak. Snow amounts were generally between 3 to 6 inches with the heaviest snow occurring in a 40 mile wide area extending from Sioux City northeastward. Thunder accompanied the snow, with 3 inches falling in one hour at the Sioux City Gateway Airport. Visibilities were reduced to near zero by strong northwest winds 25 to 45 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Palm Sunday tornado outbreak in SE US, nearly 30 tornadoes in 4 states killed 43 people, flooding and mudslides in NC. (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac) The Goshen Church Alabama Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak occurred on this date. What began as a peaceful Palm Sunday quickly changed to a historic day in weather history when a powerful tornado ripped through southern Alabama and Georgia. By the time the storm was over 22 people were dead and 92 were injured. An F4 tornado cut a 50 mile path from Ragland in St. Clair, County Alabama to the Georgia line. The storm touched down near Ragland at 10:51 am. The storm struck Ohatchee, then roared across northeastern Calhoun County, passing near Piedmont and hitting Goshen in Cherokee County. The most disastrous damage occurred at Goshen, where the twister struck the Goshen United Methodist Church at 11:37am. 20 people were killed at the church, which did not hear the tornado warning issued 10 minutes earlier by the National Weather Service in Birmingham. A tornado watch had been issued at 9:30 am. Following the tornadoes, Vice President Al Gore pledged to extend NOAA Weatheradio coverage into the areas affected by the twisters, which had previously been unable to receive the alarm signals. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) An F2 tornado caused much damage in Tallulah Falls, GA; then descended a 500 foot cliff to the base of nearby Tallulah Gorge, where it destroyed many trees. Debris in the gorge included letters from Piedmont, AL, some 140 miles SW of Tallulah Falls, and the site of an earlier F4 tornado. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

Cant argue. Last winter was a good one with 2 6"+ snowstorms(both all snow) and had snow otg for 2 weeks or so in Jan. I was just above climo here. Our area has a had a pretty nice run overall since the 2016 Nino. A couple lean winters plus the ratter mixed in.

56 / 43 light rain 79 yesterday (7th day >70 here for Mar). Cooler next few days through Sunday. Then much warmer mon (3/30) - Easter Sunday. Does look a bit cloudy and that could limit from upper 70s to lower 80s, but with sun could push mid 80s or beyond on Wed.

I dont think that was march 25, 2025 - it was march 29th March 25, 2025 EWR: 60 / 54 NYC: 58 / 47 BOS: 54 / 36 March 29, 2025 EWR: 85 / 45 NYC: 81 . / 43 BOS: 48 / 34 EWR:

couple peeks of sun here-50 and breezy

Faux -PDO's due to relative +PDO anomalies this RONI that Overall Telecon instability --> chaos/reduction in longer term predictive skill, coherent and undeniable It's a bit of a philosophical reasoning but there appears to be a realism emerging where traditional indexes are becoming gradually less usable. Ultimately perhaps meaningless as the climate air, land, sea, or combinatory thereof, proves to be steeply in delta - and it appears to be closely correlated. The greater the d(C) in time, the > the index collapse... manifested as variability that cannot be predetermined based upon known sciences. Definitely not modeling...jesus. From all that, it's getting harder, even for the harder headed types, to ignore. Stop wasting our time using them to predict seasonal modes of behavior. For none of that former starkly realistic plight lends to success being more than a blind squirrel upon a nut. We can kick and scream and get mad at the messenger here, or ... we can demonstrate a matured higher reasoning capacity that seeks truth, while being disconnected from ego. There may be more use in the permuted versions... like RONI and so forth. However, the boundaries of even those are changing. That makes them suss unfortunately. Personally I'm seeing ... perhaps "sensing" is a better word, more success in just using large hemispheric 6-monthly trends, and then getting a sense of their likeliness to continuing, or decay, based upon those total/orbital observations. It's been cold despite warm this or cold that (vice versa anomalistic result): any reason that should stop? Nope. Continue. Yup, new paradigm, break out the dice. Ha, as a wild digression ... this sort of reminds me of that new Quantum Field idea about aspects of deeper sentience, that layer that awareness grows from, are not being constrained by time; when we have "gut feelings", those are the future transmitting backward. It's not a bad idea when matching that with anecdotal. Like someone falls off a ladder and bonks their head. As they come around they have a memory of actually finishing their descent down the latter, without it being assisted by 9.8 m/s2. There's a version of the future transmitting back, but it gets interceded along the way... I get this gut feelings that the indexes as originally conceived out of a statistic framework, won't work in the future generations - probably, this is beginning now, too. They'll be extinct eventually.

Yeah, definitely, they have a slight +PDO correlation too in the preceding late Spring/Summer The "other things driving" must have been really strong 2016-2024 because it bucked the warm ENSO/PDO correlation in that time. Those correlation SSTA's are really strong though in those preceding maps, then another pattern emerges in the Fall. I might have to break it down and do a manual index, implementing it for a Winter forecast this year. I'm glad you appreciate the value of the method.

Hoping tonight delivers at least a few light showers. My sinuses are getting whipped worse than ever.

Makes that succession of +WPO seasons that we had even more impressive considering we have also had a consistent cool ENSO baseline. No wonder we had such an awful stretch of eastern US winters given that we were ripping off +WPO La Nina events and the strong El Nino that was accompanied by -PDO.

It was a good winter, but I have to give it a B+ which really is a shame. But the highlights were: Snowed in DJFM (finally got December snow!) Historic snow/sleet/ice storm followed by brutal cold and a solid three weeks of snowcover. The March 12 historic cold drop and snow But at the end of the day, while it may have felt like deep winter, it really didn't snow all that much. I only ended up with 14.3" seasonal total (including sleet), which is below-average here. Honestly I preferred the 24/25 winter IMBY, with it's climo+ snowfall, 1/6 MECS and snowpack refreshers all month.

^El Nino by itself is usually cooler in the Summer in the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast Before a later in the year peak is stronger

Reporting from St. Louis this morning. Out visiting our daughter and son-in-law. 39deg here this morning after a high of 93deg yesterday afternoon. Whiplash. But look at this reporting station: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UP801&hours=72 They are at 26deg have had a 63deg drop since their high of 89 yesterday !

This summer forecast is from pro-met Travis Hartman of Vaisala Xweather. I received this yesterday free of charge as I’m not a paying client. “What kind of summer are we walking into? For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats. Ocean signals point to warmth A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US. Enter El Niño—but with nuance Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall. So, what does this mean for 2026? The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.”

I think he meant it as a joke, not sure? I don't think any of the regulars here want to merge and sort through a bunch of NY nonsense. Nothing going on, so be it. A slight observation here and there is fine. There will be severe threats...how many, who knows? Literally during the summer months, really nothing going on besides severe threats which many times pop up immediately during the afternoon hours. Other than that, nothing to say besides "It's hot as shit again"....

It looks like we did have a quick spinup yesterday evening in the extreme part of the county and adjoining county (Huntington and Wabash), from radar appeared to be a cell merger. I was one my way back from Ft. Wayne, so didn't have time to get that far south with the speed of the storm movement. I mentioned to the local Skywarn group that it should have been T-warned, but never was. One of the spotters got down there to collect some large hail off of the ground as it sped away. The Director who took my job after I retired is meeting the NWS survey team down there this morning. That was one part of the job that I miss is doing storm surveys.

Meanwhile Fairbanks -21 mtd IDListSearch Station:AURORAFAIRBANKS MIDTOWNFAIRBANKS 4.4 WCOLLEGE OBSERVATORYUNIVERSITY EXPERIMENTAL STATIONFAIRBANKS AIRPORT #2FAIRBANKS INTL APGOLDSTREAM CREEKCOLLEGE 5 NWESTER 5NEFOX 2 SEESTERGILMORE CREEKFAIRBANKS 11 NENORTH POLE 1NNORTH POLEFORT KNOX MINEFAIRBANKS 18.4 WNWKEYSTONE RIDGEEIELSON FIELDTWO RIVERSMANCHU ALASKACARIBOU PEAK ALASKA Go Restore map Climatological Data for FAIRBANKS INTL AP, AK - March 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 130 -743 - - 1989 0 0.30 3.3 - Average 5.0 -28.6 -11.8 -21.0 - - - - 32.5 Normal 23.5 -5.0 9.2 - 1450 0 0.34 2026-03-01 -15 -49 -32.0 -36.4 97 0 0.00 0.0 37 2026-03-02 -9 -46 -27.5 -32.2 92 0 0.00 0.0 35 2026-03-03 -1 -43 -22.0 -26.9 87 0 0.00 0.0 34 2026-03-04 1 -38 -18.5 -23.7 83 0 0.00 0.0 34 2026-03-05 4 -35 -15.5 -21.0 80 0 0.00 0.0 33 2026-03-06 15 -12 1.5 -4.3 63 0 0.16 1.6 33 2026-03-07 11 2 6.5 0.4 58 0 0.13 1.3 33 2026-03-08 8 -7 0.5 -5.9 64 0 T 0.1 35 2026-03-09 -5 -30 -17.5 -24.2 82 0 0.01 0.2 34 2026-03-10 -8 -41 -24.5 -31.6 89 0 T T 33 2026-03-11 -7 -41 -24.0 -31.5 89 0 0.00 0.0 33 2026-03-12 1 -40 -19.5 -27.4 84 0 0.00 0.0 33 2026-03-13 -2 -36 -19.0 -27.3 84 0 T T 33 2026-03-14 4 -27 -11.5 -20.3 76 0 T 0.1 32 2026-03-15 6 -32 -13.0 -22.2 78 0 0.00 0.0 32 2026-03-16 4 -16 -6.0 -15.7 71 0 0.00 0.0 32 2026-03-17 0 -29 -14.5 -24.8 79 0 0.00 0.0 32 2026-03-18 -5 -40 -22.5 -33.3 87 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-19 1 -33 -16.0 -27.4 81 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-20 12 -19 -3.5 -15.5 68 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-21 16 -24 -4.0 -16.7 69 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-22 20 -18 1.0 -12.3 64 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-23 12 -26 -7.0 -21.0 72 0 0.00 0.0 30 2026-03-24 20 -24 -2.0 -16.8 67 0 0.00 0.0 30 2026-03-25 22 -19 1.5 -14.0 63 0 0.00 0.0 30 2026-03-26 25 -20 2.5 -13.8 62 0 0.00 M M 2026-03-27 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-28 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-29 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-30 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-31 M M M M M M M M M .

I guess I could have made this post weeks ago, but with respect to @Blizzard of 93I decided to wait despite having strong feelings that winter was essentially over at the beginning of March. I guess there are 2 distinct ways in which one could grade this winter: "Grading on a curve" - grading the winter based on the pattern heading into it and on a lot of met's projections for the season Grading it "straight up" - based solely on what happened regardless of expectations No one opinion is wrong or right. We're grading on our own observations, perceptions, expectations, etc. While there certainly is objective (data) information available, it's still a subjective call for each poster. That said, here's my thoughts - I'm giving winter 2025-26 a final grade of B-. I considered anything from a C+ up to a B and landed in the middle. Main factors that I used to arrive at my final grade: Snowfall: snowfall was slightly below normal at 22.4". It's hard for me to grade snowfall higher than a C, which is average, when my total was below normal. Still, we had weeks of deep, solid snow cover and that created a very memorable stretch of true winter weather. Final snowfall grade is a C+ Temps: temps were below normal, often well below normal during the heart of winter. And those temps helped maintain our snow cover. Unfortunately, the pattern flipped on a dime in late February and March has seen some ridiculously warm weather. Since it's a part of our winter season, I'm grading the temp at a B+. March: March has been awful. And I need to be careful of recency bias, but while it's been a wild month with Tornado Watches, Severe Thunderstorm warnings a plenty, sharp cold fronts that resulted in snow flying just a couple of hours after being in the 60s...there has been very little in terms of snowfall and the month has felt more springlike than anything else. There hasn't really been any legit threat of snowfall now for weeks on end. The dud that this winter has ended on brings down the overall grade somewhat. Personal perception: See above regarding recency bias, I will say that coming back from Florida on January 28th at midday with temps around 10 degrees, deep snow cover, snow blowing all around despite the storm having occurred 3 days prior and then enjoying the snow for the next few weeks...we had an amazing stretch of winter. One that we very seldom have any more. It was a lot of fun in here in December and January and right into early February. Factoring all of that, I'm at a B-. Curious what others have to say...

In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic SSTs were the warmest they have ever been.. I don't think we are in -AMO cycle, it's too soon off of that. In 2026 Atlantic hurricane season thread, I smoothed out long term AMO, and found it's still in ascending phase, although data is missing since 2023. Last year and this year in the overall trend look like just a small wave down.

The creek by my place is running normal for this time of year.

Yes, ENSO state is connected. It has about 0.3 correlation between Nina/-WPO and Nino/+WPO. The EPO doesn't connect with SSTAs nearly as much. The EPO might be the hardest index to predict in advance.

It's amazing to wonder what this global ATM 2-meter T curve would look like if SE Canada and NE's numbers were removed from the average -

Finally out of the drought here in my part of the Poconos. Received about .50" of rain last night with the front. Hopeful the rest of Pa can continue beating away at the drought conditions in coming weeks.