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18z RDPS further West with more moisture, but too warm at the surface for most east of 77.

So we've moved on to the next head fake have we? Ok, cool. Count me in. Ya know, we do this to ourselves.

Thank you good sir. Yes, I’ve been to that Brimmer’s a number of times over the years. Today I just went to the Rohrerstown DMV and believe it or not I was in and out, got there right when they opened. ‘Twas quite pleased. I believe you have to go to a PennDot center for real ID, so no dice on Brimmer’s.

So our options are so far out to sea or so far west it’s rain?

We need you to come wade through our mess and be the voice of reason. You know how we get when there’s model madness. In the same boat as many of you! Hang in there, we’ll score eventually. Mother Nature hasn’t been too kind for eastern Tenn through the foothills of NC.

I love how it's snowier than 12z. Lovely model battle

I have always hated the Germans.

From Eric Webb (aka my current hopium dealer) There are positive feedbacks between warm advection, precip, latent heat release, and wave tilt/amplitude that a lot of, if not most, models are going to miss in setups like these, which make them especially tricky to forecast. It’s easy for a lot of people and forecasters alike to get caught up in the models and underestimate the effect these processes and the magnitude of impact they can have on even a short range forecast. This positive feedback loop involves warm advection and upglide aloft generating more precip and latent heating, which force -PVa ahead of our upper trough, causing the wave to slow and tilt the over more negatively/less positively. The increased wave tilt is able to advect more warm/moist air aloft over the Arctic front, which triggers more precip, etc.When your air mass is super marginal like this and the large-scale flow is diffluent downstream (ridging off Newfoundland), you’re even more vulnerable to this positive feedback running away in a hurry and amplifying the short-term changes in the models. This is just the kind of recipe that can lead to big forecast busts, especially on the north & west side of these systems where the warm advection is weaker but also closer to the snow growth zone aloft

Quite surprised how that looked....it was west with Saturday too, but would sacrifice Saturday for the look Sunday. The timing is odd too, snowing here on Sunday, early morning

A sustained colder-than-normal period is commencing. The temperature will tumble into the 20s overnight and then rise only to the middle 30s tomorrow. With the exception of Saturday, highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on Sunday and Monday. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least the most of next week. Flurries and perhaps a heavier snow shower are possible on Saturday and Sunday as a renewed flow of cold air moves across the region. Any accumulations should be light (mainly a coating to an inch). A coastal storm could begin to develop off the Southeast coast and then track south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. On such a track, it could bring a period of light snow to eastern Long Island into southeastern New England on Sunday into Sunday night. After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall. The probability of a PNA+ regime has increased in recent days. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +11.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.231 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.1° (-0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

reggie?

Holy shit no wonder why the GFS was spitting that crazy solution. This is some brutal air that could be coming. Obviously will moderate as it gets closer if its real..

Im convinced they have been awful due to noaa cuts. .

We back!

Reggie with a move west. Prob wrong but still plenty of model disagreement.

12z Euro-AI bumped up snow probs for I-95 east. Now 40% - 50% of 1"+ on Sunday.

I'm hugging it. Rgem is a good model right?

Like how can you be this far off from the other models under 72hrs is sad lol

WB RRFS 12Z compared to 18Z (2nd picture) through 3pm Sunday.

Our piece of energy is now coming ashore in northern Canada, so hopefully some clarity is added soon

May the bourbon-barrel-aged stouts summon a happy-hour digital blue blizzard straight to our souls. LFG!! Oh—and unleash the goonie goo goo!

Icon is east of east lol

Rgem is so far west wtf is the deal with these models man.

Icon with a move east.

I'm in a similar situation both this year and in recent years. And I agree about the anecdotal observation. The RRFS is prone to wild swings (i.e. errors), especially beyond 48 hours. But it's still better to see it shift west than east. It's showing a significant snowstorm for NYC east and south on Sunday after an appetizer for some on Saturday.