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A fairly ordinary storm? Down here, 10-16” has been around our seasonal total for like 3 of the last six years. This is phenomenal!

Cautiously optimistic. If it gets too "drifty" you can get some weird maps. Can't make an accurate snow total with a 2ft x 2ft wide area.

Comparing the 850 mb temperatures for Philly, NW Burlington County NJ, NW Camden County between 18z GFS and 18Z Euro, the GFS NEVER gets the temperature above zero degrees C, and even then, it only holds it there for 3 hours maximum (probably shorter). This doesn't occur until 03z Monday. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the 850 mb temperature around 3 degrees C at 0z Monday, and then only reduces it to zero and below 10 hours later. Yet the snow fall estimates are not too different from each other, implying that most of the heavy precipitation ended before the changeover. One more thing... the nasty run of the latest NAM model shows the 850 mb temperature on the NJ coast at 10 degrees C (50 degrees F!). How in the world could those temperatures have warmed that much. Make me believe there is a problem with the run.

Don, You are looking good at both locations for this one.

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

I don't watch the news really so idk what they're saying, but this is probably going to be a legitimately high end to historic storm. Anyone getting .75-1" of ZR down in the south is going to have their grid collapse.

We all should’ve chipped into buy DIT a plane ticket to Greensboro NC.

18z Euro AI vs 6z Euro Ai at same timeframe...definitely trending toward the HP tongue wrapping around the southern end of valley

Beautiful

Well, your area never had any more upside than that, but some other spots do.

That was a fantastic run for us. We hold until 18z with about 0.9” QPF by then. Here’s 18z at DCA. To me, this does look like freezing rain at 00z Monday but someone much smarter could correct me.

Home | Fairfax County Public Schools | Fairfax County, Virginia | Fairfax County Public Schools They say a decision will be made on Sunday about Monday school and activities.

Thanks so much! That is very helpful. We will plan accordingly. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

I would take that month.

Yep, and I think Pivotal maps don’t count sleet as snow, so I could imagine there being up to a couple inches of sleet on top since sleet is a 3:1 liquid ratio. 0.6” of water as sleet would be almost 2”.

For us it is a fairly ordinary storm. For those about to get the ice, that will suck big time.

You couldn’t ask for a better setup for the region given the last several years. Everyone wins in this setup. There really isn’t a screw zone. It’s a region wide dumping

Alcohol overrunning. On topic, it appears the sweet spot of the ice/QPF on several of these last runs is centering on further to the west than previous runs. Im in Charlotte. Am I misinterpreting that?

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If anyone is interested. The Joe and Joe weather show will have DT, Bill Goodman from Upton, and Alan Kasper on live at 735 PM https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fyoutube.com%2Flive%2FdL7K-oOsNuY%3Ffeature%3Dshare%26fbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExd1BmYlRDSHppb2Z3amtXU3NydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR66QJFGGFoXNZQyCVSFl2PZKw3OyE9q_hEQQnQJ5rCR_T5ZcdbDYjD3xUZsAA_aem_xTjdkXJiSMS49KhYQXI0eg&h=AT1wewvmSCpABlIdqEjFvLkAP8t0tp3_FCO6GL6JPLigfxF8hzduLVJIxf98Pv75cxWft455qG28IIT2gUBXudWEoVyXi-aE_08zOtIva79o5z2LIsRsPxQJgb8B6Hqrn-i7fpyg6B5EATD1&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT1hBYTZdDbvtPsi4BqQr_3Fe9cj2CIIzkmqlTBFa_liWZVSxS2ascr18tLV6YsLzIMxJgDV62Lopa9_OxFu43qeuXxjs4CI3eHYUSjpXdhhIqlzeKsLFcxIFNHxZoHfzPbpOwAUp17KIXnMQpE-CILvM4ee1q_cq77itAfwWRlJC8v49O0ENaO0ZTjk7rqEu1NGEuDJdHBn6g7l-9z4tzdqAg

We're waiting on this storm. It feels like its taking forever to get here lol

I cannot wait to see the snow depth map from this event on the mesonet website.

IMO if you can get all that done before noon you will be fine, of course no idea what Sevier county traffic will be like.

Scott, maybe but I watched ABC evening news. This is going to be a catastrophic storm. No one has ever seen anything like this!

lol, Yeah, The SWFE last 48 hr rule, But you have to really like the look going forward into Feb.