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lol it only nails it if the solution is crappy. we've seen it amp up and do interesting things only to fall flat on its face

I noticed that with BTV as well.

West, but weak.

RDPS shifted east slightly. West trend seems over for now

Light snow started about 20 minutes ago. Ground is caving.

We’d take that…better than nothing.

Wow we got model tracks anywhere from buried near the Gulf Coast and marginal temps, to almost up to Chattanooga and plenty cold enough. 06Z RRFS has a couple inches at KCHA - a 60% hatched risk for major disappointment. Truth may be somewhere in between. I'd be happy for those in central GA central SC, and the NC Piedmont. Maybe their groaning would subside for a couple weeks, lol!

The early January thaw is over. Back to winter, we got the cold again, all we need now is that deep snowpack. And everyone will be happy. Hopefully this upcoming pattern delivers the much needed goods.

the sunday event better than Sat Sat is an inch or less Sun is 1-2 verbatim

Nope. But we’ve been here before, and ya gotta man up-Not fall apart. Needs to regroup and pull himself together.

Ideally you don't want multiple shortwaves stacked such that the northerly ones are displaced right of the trof axis like the entire thing is toppling over. That inhibits neutral/negative tilting of the trof. Or more precisely it indicates that the overall flow isn't conducive to negative tilting. The RGEM isn't a bad run - we're still in the game - but it has clear flaws.

Its a 1-2" for some... mostly Sunday morning

Yeah, he had a good one this morning. But it’s rough out here. Nothing comes easy.

And sunday

Reggie

A query about AFD language, at least from GYX. Up until this month, it began with a quick summary, followed by Near Term (~12 hr), Short Term (out to 36) and Long Term (out to 168). This month the AFD begins with What Has Changed, a short paragraph, followed by Key Messages, usually 2 or 3. Then each key message is discussed. Rarely has the AFD offered more than a quick sentence, if that, past Day 3 or 4. Personally, I found more useful info from the old language.

I'm just as annoyed as the next guy at the pull back in trends, but in this case I don't think the GL low is to blame. If it were an arctic high, I think it would be even more suppressive/OTS.

It’s really just one or two guys that gave up. And that’s fine too. To each their own. Scott used to post great posts, like Will does…now he’s just an utter MESS. What a melt! The poor kid..gotta feel for him watching his dad totally fall apart.

Rgem's a hit on Saturday with front and coastal. But not huge it doesn't appear.

2017 probably a bit bigger and longer duration, but I see some similarities

Yeah. Just gunna' say...

I'll take me some 12z RGEM

The icon and rgem wont make many friends.

Gets advisory snows for eastern areas