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.3-.4? I would think as dry as it’s been that would help

With 24-30 hours of snows to go too

Closer to hour 30, even worse. It’s QPF inconsistency is volatile even when we’re tracking inside hour 12.

The heavy rates will be key. If those shred up or let up the warm air will advance fast. We saw this in last Feb's SWFE and back in Dec.

Nah this is a good point, any snow we get today will help keep the column moistened for the brunt of the storm tomorrow. With it so cold outside right now we will inevitably be fighting dry air.

Still a virga storm here

Arlington side roads now completely iced over. KDFW down to 21 and getting moderate to heavy sleet.

This is a negative post

Maybe 0.1" freezing rain with close to an inch of sleet. 29F right now with colder temps moving in from the west and north. We may see 2" sleet with this first round. I expected the first round to be mainly freezing rain around here so great sign that it's 50/50 or even leaning more to sleet. Round 2 should be all sleet turning to snow tomorrow morning.

Being in the coastal plain here, When the temps are marginal and we get wet snow, Its usually 6-7:1 based on measurement and LE, 10:1 is a good baseline.

Hrrrrr just shows though how hanging on even for an extra couple hours is huge. Fun times ahead can be a lot of positive surprises and obv negative ones as well

HRRR with over a foot for a bunch of people by 9PM Sunday

If you get rain, I'll walk to your house, shovel your driveway.... then walk home.

living and dying by hrrr runs 24 hours from game time is a recipe for not having fun.

H R cubed FTW

First nowcast report. Snow shield looks further north on radar than modeled. Des Moines reporting light snow. Yes, I’m that guy.

I do sorta feel like a kid before Christmas right now. I've been flying high for a couple days. Really enjoyable when things improve, then hold and you get the days of fun looking at models and all the storm hype in the community etc.

You know...f some of you guys with your constant negative interpretations of every fucking model run. Give it a rest at some point

Long range HRRR finally getting a clue and sending the sleet line up to I-78, but quickly washes it out and sends it back south.

downtown little rock is snowed/iced in. 10 degrees! wow.

OH and CTP still over a foot lol

If 13z went out as far, it would be different. The US mesoscale sweet is literal trash outside of 25%-40% its range. (HRRR hr 12, Nam/3k hr 36, rap and RRFS hour 0)

Hoar