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You cannot disprove a theory with feelings. Human quality-of-life has improved tremendously over the past few centuries (medicine [germ theory], electricity, water treatment, agriculture etc...) because (some) humans used science (data, evidence, repeatability) to solve problems instead of emotion, superstition, gut feeling etc... Human perceptions are biased and must be validated with observable data to draw reliable conclusions. Fortunately people like you (non-fact-based) do not steer social and technological policies and developments. You undoubtedly have other ways to contribute to society, but assessing the state of meteorological modeling isn't one of them.

There's plenty of action in the distance. The snow may all end up in the Dakotas and Minnesota, but it's at least some good stuff to track. I certainly won't complain if we get some good showers and storms.

at 46.12% drought, it's the most since 49.84% drought one year ago (almost exactly) Blame La Nina or something smarter than that.

I'd also like to see the original wording of the query, just to further my understanding of how the bot responds.

I am not sure why most are not hopeful for this winter when you simply look at -ENSO winters, with -QBO, & early strat warming (1981, 1983, 1995, 2000, 2017, 2021). On average, longer winters than the +QBO years by far. All those years had good DEC (although +QBO DEC were better) but JAN was the coldest on average in the east. FEB dealt with -EPO & SER combo but yielded to good blocky, colder MAR on average. FEB warmest anomaly wise.

And many have direct personal experiences to Disprove it. A lot here were 8 years old 20 years ago and some of us already adults and already familiar with model performance

Id agree with what Jeff said up above .We seem to be seeing the the SSW underway with the sharp rise in temps into the stratosphere but even so ,the cold seems to be getting pushed back seemingly each day.The JMA right now shows a strong MJO signal in the WP into the first of Dec,while this isnt bad it still should have reflection to more or less a SER,just transient cold shots.Might not be a bad thing if you want a cold Christmas or even possibly beyond that for a couple weeks anyways

I mean, it’s possible we don’t, but everybody gets so mad if I mention that. It’s always like the EPO will bring down the cold. It will squish everything… But that’s how these patterns initially go. It’s literally climo. There’s nothing wrong in saying that.

I always try to include some nice “visions” in my posts.

The Euro ends up cutting the mid-state with western areas miserable in the 30s with rain, warm in the east ahead of the cutter. SE ridge wins on it vs the AI.

0.16” this morning brings the MTD total to 1.92”

This is just mind blowing and horrifying to me

The Euro might be trying to go at a winter storm for the western areas at 288 this run. It's warmer than the AI but cooler across our forum area with less extremes on either side of the front.

Yeah there’s no way we don’t get a very strong screamer early December

"Plum Smuggler" Thank you for expanding my vocabulary today - this one is definitely going into the rotation. It sounds like Fruit of the Loom's answer to the Hamburgler!

The cold is wild in the midwest. 40 degrees below normal with -10s. Most of our forum area is in the 10 to 20 degrees bn range from the 3rd to the end of the run on the 6th.

Thank You! I could have had similar input for my location but you beat me to it. My predicted high for the 18th 24 hrs prior at 6 am 11-17 for my newsletter was 43. I missed it by 2 degrees 24 hrs prior. The NWS at Sterling missed it by 9 degrees, 12 hrs. prior and in real time because of buying in to model error. The models almost always scour the cold from entrenched CAD out of valleys too quickly on a southeast or east breeze for Augusta. The Sterling forecaster obviously didn't understand or consider this on Tuesday even after midday red flags.

The Euro AI has a very potent cold front in early December that really battles the SE ridge. It slowly overtakes the western forum first and it takes 36 hours or so to cross the state. Get some rain to snow in NW Tennessee that slowly spreads eastward and lightens as it goes east. Often times the cold comes a little quicker than models manage it in those situations, but sometimes it just sticks in place.

I miss having access to Ventrice’s MJO stuff. All I have are those wheeler diagrams. Better than nothing I guess.

Interesting. You should ask it to follow up with links to related scientific papers on which its assessment was based.

I think that is the favored outcome.

I meant to look through the behavior of the MJO for my entire analog set in putting together the forecast at the end, but I forgot to do it...if I mess up the December progression and rush the warmth, that is why.

I know it’s an op run, but 12z Euro AI has the depiction I had in mind for this whole regime shift. Early December shut ‘em down type cutter with frigid temps into TX while Kevin is wearing his plum smuggler running shorts for his morning run. Then it shifts east.

Why do you keep posting nonsense ?

Well said Bob. Good luck to your backyard this winter.