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The NAO and AO become important this time of year to lock in the airmass-otherwise it's transient. Our best bet at something interesting could be a warm front or SWFE depending on the airmass ahead of it.

I may be on a one-man island but I love this weather. Still warm enough to get outside and do anything you want. And plenty of time for sun and warmth once it is really spring. This was the rule and not the exception through at least April growing up in New England

Nearing 80 (with dews near 60) by @King James, extremely impressive for early March.

Most classic hook you will ever see in Michigan.

An early taste of spring is imminent. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. The temperature will likely surge into the lower 50s tomorrow and then lower 60s on Sunday. The first half of next week will likely see highs in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it could turn cooler. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +25.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.318 today.

Insane radar presentation with that MI cell. Definitely something on the ground. Getting shades of the tornado supercells in Portage back in May '24. Edit: Confirmed, pretty large cc drop.

Man, you and I are so opposite. It may be above freezing, but this day sucks. Especially when it's near 70 across the state in Pittsburgh. Now I see tomorrow is only going to be 48 here. So much for the big warm up of 60+. It went from a week plus to barely three days.

I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong?

82 current, breaking record 80 set in '61. I was a tater tot back then and have no memory of it. We didn't get A/C until '68. Misery was rampant before that.

100 miles south

Reports of hail in McDowell. We did go straight to June

Schenn and Faulk gone for 2 1st, 2 3rd, Jonathan Drouin, Justin Woll and a prospect. You know what, I'll take it. 3 1st in the draft this year is fine with me.

The only snow piles are the ones in the parking lots.

I miss the sun.

https://x.com/Ham_BklynWx/status/2030018538727956893?s=20

I think the point of the article is to convey the data, not to assess causality - just for clarity. They are pretty explicit in saying so. This last decade's d(warm) was .15 deg C > than the previous fairly stable .2 C increase spanning 45 years. I then went on to offer that the climate curve in pure temperature is a 'serrated' course... 2023/2024 may merely have been a particularly sloped year. The previous delta could certainly return. But ... new accelerations may also take place. Acceleration was proven unpredictable leading 2023. What if this happens over the next year... ? Keep in mind, the acceleration actually took off prior to that warm ENSO event. I don't disagree that 10 years in a vacuum isn't very useful to describe the complexities of an entire planetary system- that's quite intuitive. However, technically the study was 55 years: 10 years vs the previous 45. It doesn't refute the fact of the numbers. As to it's significance, that remains to be seen.

(Nods in agreement)

For those of you that like this weather….i hope your dog leaves you.

Cpc

This the fucking worst. Five days of this shit up this way. And no way do I avoid the bdcf thing tomorrow. This is brutal - it’s too long without sun and this much gray…

First tornado warning of the year for SW Michigan.

Waiting for you in mid April

Thanks Steve.