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Looks like a classic Illinois day on Wednesday. Parameters are high, and that could all go into a windstorm, but I have to favor supercells initially. So far looks like morning rain will scoot out and leave a lovely outflow boundary with which to work. Factors that should get a big ol' bow echo going are WAA at 850 / 700 mb, 500 mb orientation / height falls, deepening sfc low, high instability, and an east-west boundary (outflow). That said, barring a quick mess, I'm thinking Illinois will book another tornado day. Models line up with the morning rain pattern recognition. In this case looks like it gets away in plenty of time to reheat. Outflow boundary OFB will locally enhance low-level shear. Some of the soundings are little skinny, but that may be a result of temperature forecast uncertainty. Should be skinny north of the OFB, probably fatter south of it. Both sides the LI is robust. Should get supercells along both the synoptic boundary and outflow. As usual we favor the boundary intersection. Also as usual, exact strategy will be a game time decision. Right on the intersection, or 1-2 cells east of it. Back on Thursday I believe the cyclical beast of the day was east of the main triple point, but on another differential heating boundary. Time will tell how Wednesday goes. From pattern recognition I infer initial tornadoes, perhaps 1-3 cyclical supercells. Then it will congeal into quite the bow echo.

According to this database (still seemingly updated), it would be record-breaking or nearly so for June once it gets into the lower GL region. Per the map below, record low pressure in June from Chicagoland into the central portion of the lower peninsula of michigan is ~992-993mb https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Perfect day out there-AC off and windows open. 74 here

Could be some great radiational cooling tonight into the upper 40s at usual radiational cooling spots.

72F/DP 55F < 100 days...

Feels great with the dewpoints down in the high 40s. We'll have the brief humidity spike on Thursday with the chance of a t-storm, but then right back to very low humidity next weekend. The negative is very little chance of rain with so much low humidity, so the drought will continue to get worse. But a lot of beautiful weather ahead.

Hopefully we will get some meaningful rain with this event.

Thats called a Magic Funnel. It was always there until the smokestack made it "appear". Amaze your friends, only 19.99. But wait there's more.... lmao Pretty cool though

What a beautiful day. I'm going to use my "I'm the boss card" and take the afternoon off. I'm meeting a friend for an afternoon hike. It will probably involve a moderate strength edible. Hopefully Thursday is active. I might use my card again and find a good view.

yeah we're dialed in good

@GaWx Is the current MEI rise from March through May actually the biggest rise on record for that index like I’m reading on twitter? I only have the data through 1979 right now

2.4 earthquake in the Bel Air area around 11am. Didn’t feel anything at my house but places to my east in Balt Co did per Facebook

Yeah, 49 when the dog took me for an unexpected walk around 6am. I already packed away my sweatshirts. Grabbed a Carhardt out of the closet and ended up sweating lol. Top tier next 7 days except for the frequent rain chances. Rubber band weather.

Keeping the early 90s grunge theme? Black hole sun??

this super will be beginning of the end for the ole easternuswx weenie set

I think it's one of those days where satellite is lying everywhere. There's more black than white on vis looping yet I'm getting something like 1/4th sun per hour

0.35” here, only 0.45” for the month. Beautiful outside.

Seems to be a wall at the Appalachian Mountains. Some SC peeps on X are gnashing their teeth. They'll get some storms and wind but it literally blows over. Slower moving rain and systems are here on our side. Thursday looks like more of the same. Big ol' slug of moisture will come up from the Gulf. Some hints of even a LLJ into the Tennessee Valley. After some good rain around here the system speeds up and fills over the Carolinas with lower QPF that way. We still have a long way to go on our own drought. I suppose we'll make more progress later this week. My lawn seems perfectly fine now.

We usually get hit with these setups after sundown as they wane and have turned into basically windbags. Hard to get good sups this far east after April/early May. This may be the last chance before full on ridge riding shrimp season comes in around the 4th. There was a funnel cloud reported that I could've seen from my back porch with the last one (briefly touched down as an EF0 off to my east). Still a lot of if's. I'll have my bicycle ready lol

67.7° with a cloud street perfectly aligned to block the sun.

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Not to overstep or bypass your statement. It is interesting that the single one year overshot so far. More on that in a moment... For me, the bigger story is that despite that record holding as long as it has, the year-to-year deltas since have in total averaged negative. In fact, an aspect that's been going on for decades prior to 2012 for that matter. Global ice, not just sea ice, began receding around 1850 - altho it's accelerated notably since 2000. So, a rather low bar of intelligence can infer we are at risk of another plummet at any time. However, I think what 2012, and the 2023 (unilateral atmospheric/sea-temperature coupled explosion of thermal imbalance) both implicate is troubling: the global climate system is capable of moving in unpredictable thrusts. Not in a steady, predictable, thus easier to plan and adapt, linear ascent. Even though 2023 seemed to cause a pause, followed by flurry of pimped out memes, there nothing in the climate reconstructions that suggests that wouldn't happen. I mean geological history is not smooth nor a predictable practice. So epistemically it should never be a surprise to anyone. When's the next thrust?

bummer but i'm ok with some comma head boomers and a miss south on the windy stuff gonna boost our state tor numbers either way, looking to run away with the title in 2026?