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The risk w/ this is the snow cuts off right at the spine of the Apps.

improvements on the ICON?

Tonight's 0Z will be interesting to see how much longer it snows in HR and NE NC and how further north the snow gets on the NAM. At 84 it looked like our area was just starting to get into the jackpot stuff.

ICON isn't going to be quite as atrocious lol

I just had to compliment the profile pic. Benny Hill was always a favorite of mine.

I’d love to Fuji some boobie lows someday

Those are 00z model runs

We might get a few light snows in between, but I think the next period to watch for something more interesting is that Sunday-Tuesday timeframe, Feb 8-10. Some models have teased an event. I've seen some favorable looks, but nothing incredibly consistent yet. A few things to watch. Another neutral slide in the PNA around that time. Long-range hints at a 50/50 and -NAO. Ridge placement could be ideal. Maybe more chances with the -AO remaining quite negative. Not even sure yet when this pattern is keyed to break down.

Please pardon my ignorance in advance.... my only real model knowledge is what I've read on this forum in the last 14 years. In your post are you referring to the low being off of Myrtle Beach, SC on the NAM vs Morehead City, NC on the Euro? I was playing with Pivotal and am wondering if this is what you are referring to. (~130 miles west longitudinally)

Just keep amplifying that western ridge...lets drop the kicker s/w like due south so our storm fujiwaras around it...almost like Jan 27, 2015.

Any boogie is a good boogie. Whether sagging low or perky bouncie high.

can you post it?

KMA is next!!!

Models have continued to denote a very sharp cutoff over E TN, and MBY is not immune to that either. I still do not trust modeling with this storm. I have seen this type of setup go "poof" even as the storm is ongoing. We need that slp tucked to the west of Hatteras. If it isn't, no matter how much models try to make it happen.....the system usually can't get past the foothills on the west slopes. I won't say it is fool's gold. I think we have a chance at some light snow, but that SLP is waaaaay over there on the coast. Even for NE TN, this is gonna take some work to get snow here. My confidence remains low in how this is portrayed.

For those asking what we need for more to be involved (and it ain't happening) Here's what we have, not necessarily terrible for east TN: Here is what we need:

Here the NAM doesn't allow the convection to rob the primary storms energy, not to mention the potential party pooper kicker low is held at bay (Slower) more into Canada. Also, the confluence here is weaker now. Therefore, in this type of solution the storm is allowed to come further north while bombing out.

Prepping my grill to beat Dad's photo.

So you are saying there’s a chance… Watch come Thursday night this cuts over the Delmarva into SE PA. : 4 srefs at 15z do just that What period is the next shot at a big one? Seems like everything going forward is light to moderate the last couple days of runs Pgh Met: It's hard to imagine we are completely done with big threats if the weeklies are correct with the major Greenland block over the next several weeks. After the 1st week of Feb is when the Greenland block becomes significantly stronger on all the ensembles. Would say that is our next big window. The key is getting that to move up in time & not trend significantly weaker like we see with some -NAO driven patterns in the extended range.

Catchin strays left and right this week

FFC mentioned ratios up to 20:1 possible in their afternoon discussion. Wouldn’t take much moisture at all to get that for us.

Hopefully by this time tomorrow were all throwing out high fives

It also has that barbell low way out east, further east than 12z. Not sure what that ultimately means, extrapolated. Boob lows are fun.

3 to 6 inches in the Ric would be significant in my book .. Especially for what is still on the ground in many places …

10:1 too.. so maybe a 5-8 or 5-9 special with good ratios.