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This is getting ridiculous. Isn't the NBM supposed to be the most reasonable model?

I'm getting concerned that once the very cold air settles in, we aren't going really warm up at all next week and then we get another shot a wintry weather next Thursday night/Friday morning with a big time dump of Artic air where temperatures may approach-40 to -50 below normal. What happens this weekend if we can't get above freezing we may well be locked in to icebox for the next 10 to 15 days if not longer. We have a shot at wintry mischief tonight as well.

I need this opening gig man, could launch my career

Once it becomes glacified, try sledding it.

Also, at the surface, the high in the Midwest has come south a bit this run.

1/22 18z NAM updating:

doesn't appear phase will be clean on the 18z Nam, southern vort is hanging back more than previous runs.

Kokx area forecast discussion issued from upton

Keep in mind NAM is not running with any new recon data. If its bad, throw it out. If its good keep it and will only get better when new data incorporated.

Out here doing a break down on every 3 hr panel of the Nam lol love it

Rescind your LOL imposed on those who actually knew

NAM is slower it seems

from F to D, winning

I think upton

just had the water co out they were supposed to move my meter to a pit outside; dude did not want to come in the house because i have covid, which i totally understand, that's why i told them ahead of time; he said schedule for march, he doesn't think they will be able to get to the pit for a few weeks after this storm.....

In good lake set ups we done well over the years, especially where it’s an enhancement situation. Lake county/ Western Dupage special.

Sorry if I’m missing it, what discussion is this from?

You do to think so?

SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.

When was the last time we saw this?

Faster with the northern stream, slower with the southern stream. This will likely lead to a colder outcome.

Okay… confluence holding up pretty well for us thru 39. Baja still cutoff at 561. But still looks like there’s plenty of room to phase.

I hope yall get hammered out that way. Yall are definitely in a much better position than me.

Here's my first last and only call for my new home. 13.7" pure snow 1.2" sleet a below zero temp reading at some point early next week. Good luck all i hope everyone gets something good!

NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.