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Dam that line is fierce. 2 squall lines just merged into 1 down in Tennessee.

in case folks missed the BTV area discussion earlier: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Sfc analysis places powerful and deepening 985mb low pres near Ely MN, while a 1030mb high pres is acrs the north Atlantic. Upper air analysis shows sharpening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the central Plains, while deep moisture advection continues on a strengthening south to southwest flow in the 925mb to 500mb layer. As sfc low pres deepens the 925mb to 850mb wind fields strengthens overnight into Friday acrs our region. The NAM and RAP both show progged 850mb winds of 75 to 90 knots, while 925mb winds are in the 55 to 70 knot range, highest over the northern Dacks into the northern CPV. The difficult challenge continues to be how much mixing occurs, as the strongest winds are co-located with the axis of heaviest rainfall. However, given the progged fine line of convective showers by NAM3KM/HRRR, the embedded heavier down pours would have the potential to tap very strong winds in the 925mb to 850mb layer and transfer some higher speeds to the sfc. Given this potential and latest RAP/HRRR soundings showing 500 foot agl winds of 45 to 55 knots, with 59 knots at Malone at 12z Friday, we have expanded the wind advisory. HREF shows 60 to 80% prob of 60 mph or greater winds along the Route 11 corridor and acrs parts of central/northern VT with <30% prob of winds greater than 65 mph, while indicating 90 to 100% of winds >45 mph acrs most of our cwa. Did consider High Wind Warning for northern Dacks, but southeast direction and still some uncertainty on boundary layer mixing, may limit areal coverage of 60 mph wind gusts. Still something to watch closely. Also, have some concerns over southern Greens with southeast downslope gusts near Rutland, but soundings are showing slightly weaker low level wind fields and limited mixing due to the moist adiabatic sounding profile and weak inversion above ridgetop. Generally thinking wind gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range, which wl peak between 4 AM and Noon on Friday.

The sun is now burning the other side of the Earth! So terrible for them.

Sorry but try again. A trace isn't considered measurable by the NWS. You started by saying 9 in a row multiple times, then 7 now your down to 5

Lol..none of those dates ring a bell…meh here WOR….as always, unless Tropical.

Sorry about that: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=400&interval=60&year=1995&month=12&day=25&hour=0&minute=0

48 at both my stations for the high today.

Don't know what but we are in for a blast. 12/18/23 Pete rePete

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We’ll see, but I’ll take the under. Which is easy to do in the valley anyway. I hope Kevin can rip some 50-60 mph.

I watched dan satterfield, who was the chief met out of huntsville al on YouTube clips for that winter storm. It was wild. I lived in Hernando ms at the time and we barely got it where I was.

Comes down to rain and mixing. If it rains it lowers temps and limits mixing. Ideally you want a break between 11-3p, but they’ll be times of downpours.

Surprisingly, Euro weeklies are not quite as warm as yesterday fwiw. It keeps us near or just south of the normal line unlike yesterday which had us AN until the end of January. But it's not a pattern conducive to snowfall. Looks more like our chances would be along the lines of threats advertised on the 6z Gfs, if anything. Here's a link. You can adjust the date of the runs to see what the previous 3+ weeks of runs looked like too. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512290000 Edit: all weekly products can be found here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Sub-seasonal"]}

Steal it all! Take their potential snowy joy and shatter it like a delicate tea cup, on a frigid, dry, January night. bwah, ha ha ha

No one knows.

Cut everything by 50% and it’s will be closer to reality.

Hello from NE FL. ! 70 and a light breeze as I sit on the porch and watch the surf. First of a few trips planned over the next couple of months. I lived here for 13 years so can pretty much leave it lol. Enjoy the torch!

Well gotta say. This line of rain & storms is slow moving & dumping.

That link you posted Holston was December 96 and January 97. It's 95 and 96 we were looking for.

You & I are close in age.

from cosgrove: see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. I always thought phases 3-6 correlated for warmth in our area

My WAG is ENSO neutral winters in general don't feature a predictable influence on the Pac side so the pattern is less predictable than in a Nina or Nino, and other factors tend to dictate the general pattern. I'm guessing if there isnt a favorable AO/NAO, winters tend to be milder overall and more variable wrt to snowfall, and there is increased chances of little to no snow. I think I recall PSU saying Enso Neutral brings an increased chance of a persistent SER.

I didn't think we had to deal with an AR that Winter. Blocking was a big thing that Winter though.

A true big dog should have at least a small 16”+ jackpot, and 12”+ in a good chunk of backyards. Many times the jackpot will be dismissed if it isn’t over Chicago or Detroit though.