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S tier day and week on tap Birds hella loud this morning

Hopefully everyone takes advantage of this last comfy day and installs..

Developing El Niños in April have pretty reliably resulted in near to record highs over 90° around the area like we most recently experienced in mid-April 2023. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2026-04-11 Developing El Niños bolded Highest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 4/1 82 in 1978 81 in 2026 80 in 2016 4/2 83 in 1967 80 in 1963 78 in 1946 4/3 81 in 1967 80 in 1981 77 in 2002 4/4 82 in 1950 79 in 1974 78 in 2010 4/5 83 in 1985 81 in 2010 75 in 1974 4/6 83 in 2023 80 in 1947 77 in 2010+ 4/7 92 in 2010 85 in 1991 84 in 1942 4/8 88 in 1991 84 in 2010 84 in 1959 4/9 85 in 2013 84 in 1991 78 in 1970 4/10 82 in 2017 82 in 1955 77 in 2008 4/11 87 in 2011 84 in 2017 84 in 1955 4/12 90 in 1977 87 in 2023 82 in 1996 4/13 92 in 2023 86 in 1977 84 in 2018+ 4/14 93 in 2023 88 in 2022 88 in 1941 4/15 88 in 1960 87 in 1941 85 in 1949 4/16 92 in 2002 88 in 2012 88 in 2003 4/17 97 in 2002 88 in 1976 83 in 1941 4/18 93 in 2002 93 in 1976 85 in 1964 4/19 92 in 1976 91 in 2002 89 in 1985 4/20 91 in 1941 88 in 2005 85 in 1938 4/21 88 in 1957 84 in 1985 84 in 1936 4/22 87 in 1985 86 in 2001 86 in 1973+ 4/23 88 in 1996 86 in 2007 82 in 1990+ 4/24 87 in 2001 84 in 2011 83 in 1994 4/25 91 in 1960 90 in 2009 87 in 1939 4/26 93 in 2009 85 in 2011 83 in 1985 4/27 94 in 1990 92 in 1994 90 in 1962 4/28 90 in 2009 90 in 1990 89 in 2021+ 4/29 91 in 1974 86 in 2024 86 in 2017+ 4/30 91 in 1942 87 in 1985 85 in 1941

Man what a week coming up. We summer. The greatest season is upon us.

Great write up from ECMWF on how to interpret the recent El Nino forecast so early in the development process. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2026/el-nino-2026

Stein !

I obviously was being sarcastic. Models not budging on zero precip for the next 16 days unfortunately. Not even a pop up storm.

The low be in the upper '50s most of this week. Changes...

Have gotten out each of the last two weekends shaking off the rust. Yesterday’s wind was insane. Some of the windiest conditions I’ve ever played in.

43 degrees. Chilly.

The signal for record heat in the Mid-Atlantic into the New York City area on Wednesday has increased. The latest ECMWF EFI guidance:

21F for the low.

We must be getting pretty close to seed and feed the lawn week?

Looks like the usual NJ warm spots can see their first 90° readings of the season this week.

Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop +IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095

There was a great weather observer living in Newark back in those days. The NJ climate office added all the data to the climate record recently. The beauty of these records is that it matches other overlapping accounts from that era. The average snowfall during that era was 44.0” with a DJF average temperature of 30.4°. While this winter was the coldest and snowiest at Newark and other stations in over a decade, the temperatures were still warmer than 30 year average for that era. The snowfall this winter was a little higher than the 30 year mean for that era. Plus they measured snowfall less frequently in the old days compared to today. So the actual seasonal totals could have been around 15 to 20 percent higher if they used the current snowfall measurement techniques. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history Monthly a seasonal Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.8 9.4 12.1 12.6 7.3 1.8 44.0 1872-1873 0.0 4.0 25.1 14.1 23.3 2.2 3.0 71.7 1871-1872 0.0 T 8.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 T 24.0 1870-1871 0.0 T 5.0 16.0 16.1 1.3 2.0 40.4 1869-1870 T T 8.1 1.8 8.5 11.0 3.0 32.4 1868-1869 T 0.0 9.5 11.0 12.0 5.0 0.6 38.1 1867-1868 0.0 T 15.5 23.8 14.0 15.0 7.0 75.3 1866-1867 0.0 T 7.0 23.5 15.5 17.5 T 63.5 1865-1866 0.0 0.0 13.1 11.8 8.0 1.5 T 34.4 1864-1865 0.0 0.3 26.0 10.5 12.5 T 0.0 49.3 1863-1864 0.0 T 4.3 7.0 1.0 7.0 T 19.3 1862-1863 0.0 6.5 8.0 10.0 13.0 10.9 1.8 50.2 1861-1862 0.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 25.5 4.6 6.0 50.1 1860-1861 0.0 T 7.0 20.6 1.3 17.0 2.0 47.9 1859-1860 3.0 0.0 5.1 11.3 25.0 2.5 T 46.9 1858-1859 0.0 5.5 6.5 12.3 15.8 6.0 T 46.1 1857-1858 0.0 T 4.5 1.8 10.5 10.5 T 27.3 1856-1857 0.0 0.5 4.3 28.1 2.1 17.0 0.0 52.0 1855-1856 0.0 T 9.0 32.8 5.0 11.0 0.0 57.8 1854-1855 0.0 T 8.0 18.5 16.0 2.5 T 45.0 1853-1854 0.0 M 14.5 15.0 23.5 2.8 13.5 69.3 1852-1853 0.0 T T 15.5 2.3 7.0 T 24.8 1851-1852 0.0 2.0 7.0 20.0 14.0 16.0 4.3 63.3 1850-1851 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.5 3.5 10.5 2.0 24.5 1849-1850 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.0 T 9.0 8.0 31.0 1848-1849 0.0 1.3 24.0 T 13.0 6.0 0.0 44.3 1847-1848 0.0 T 6.0 T 8.0 5.0 T 19.0 1846-1847 0.0 1.5 12.0 10.0 21.0 4.3 0.5 49.3 1845-1846 0.0 T 8.5 16.5 28.0 T T 53.0 1844-1845 0.0 0.5 6.5 5.5 20.5 5.5 T 38.5 1843-1844 0.0 1.3 9.5 5.5 13.5 1.8 0.0 31.6 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ December to February Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 31.9 28.8 30.4 30.4 1872-1873 24.7 25.1 27.4 25.7 1871-1872 28.4 29.3 29.7 29.1 1870-1871 33.6 26.5 28.6 29.6 1869-1870 32.9 35.8 30.7 33.1 1868-1869 28.2 32.8 33.3 31.4 1867-1868 26.7 26.3 21.7 24.9 1866-1867 30.7 22.9 36.4 30.0 1865-1866 35.2 25.2 29.9 30.1 1864-1865 31.9 22.8 29.2 28.0 1863-1864 31.4 29.5 32.6 31.2 1862-1863 32.7 32.9 31.4 32.3 1861-1862 33.6 27.6 30.0 30.4 1860-1861 28.8 27.8 34.2 30.3 1859-1860 29.3 29.9 28.9 29.4 1858-1859 32.7 29.6 32.6 31.6 1857-1858 37.0 36.0 26.4 33.1 1856-1857 29.8 19.0 35.7 28.2 1855-1856 33.6 21.4 24.0 26.3 1854-1855 28.8 32.3 25.8 29.0 1853-1854 32.8 28.8 30.6 30.7 1852-1853 39.7 30.5 34.9 35.0 1851-1852 27.2 25.5 31.5 28.1 1850-1851 33.8 33.3 36.9 34.7 1849-1850 33.1 34.4 35.1 34.2 1848-1849 39.9 25.8 24.9 30.2 1847-1848 36.3 32.8 30.5 33.2 1846-1847 31.5 30.4 29.7 30.5 1845-1846 27.6 30.2 27.1 28.3 1844-1845 33.0 33.2 31.3 32.5 1843-1844 33.4 25.1 31.3 29.9

26.2F low.

What a week for solar production. Been averaging around 6 kwh/kw which is at or near peak efficiency.

31 this morning.

28.9° Glad I brought the plants in.

Seems strange to me that the western equarltorial Pacific has cooled over the last 7 days west of the dateline. Any ideas? The wwb is to last around 10 days per Cfs2 starting around the 17th. But I expected it to be warming west of the dateline. The cooling is on 2 different maps, though more apparenton one than the other.

Yesterday's winds were so bad that I lasted only two innings at my grandson's HS baseball game in Stroudsburg. They were cold, and blowing from left field to right field and right into my face.

Congrats

We CMC

Well well well I was looking at an older picture of the Woolly Camera. I reloaded it and man that place is a snow globe, with 4 inches on the Woolly Lot. That snow is blowing all over the place and visibilities are shot all to hell and back! Even the Village Level has an inch of snow and even there the snow is so heavy its unbelievable. You have to keep refreshing the damn camera! I was looking at what was likely a 5 hours old image. Well it's updated and that place is getting so fracking DEMOLISHED! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village At the Woolly Lot level snow is now coming down so fracking HARD that you can't even see the ground! They are just getting utterly DESTROYED by torrential snow that is being whipped into a milkshake froth! I'd estimate 4-5 inches on the Lot with drifts on the steps to 9 inches, temp is 26 and falling! The forecast for tonight WAS 9-13 inches. They just updated it to 14 to 20 inches! I am gonna stay up all damn NIGHT LONG! Its a gray froth, wind is simply BLASTING that heavy snow sideways so hard, it's a grey froth and piling up. In other news the line of impressive storms in Texas will clip us to the north in all likelihood I will end up with 5 minutes of drizzle/light rain. But that SNOW in Mammoth is UNDENIABLE! It is just POURING DOWN in a gray froth! Plow guy has arrived on the Woolly Lot at 3am Texas time. Snow looks to be about 6-7 inches deep. Still pouring down and blowing like a wild banshee!