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Early Nov looked cold instead we are getting big warmth. might be a case of the the cold and snow is always 10 days away?

Why celebrate your kid's 1st grade graduation, or take pride in dropping 30lbs....the rate of warming in the arctic is more impressive.

I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf. I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be. I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"... "Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-

Dust storms driving through the back roads of the valley today. Surprised I have not heard any brushfire reports yet.

Teleconnections looking good for a cold snap. That would come mid November.

Facebook used to let you block a source of a meme right from the meme itself. They discontinued that ability. I wonder why?

Just have to wait and see. The monster El Nino isn't good news, but it's not the only news. Why whine in advance?

Yeah I saw Azaleas blooming but I wonder if that was due to when they were trimmed. Hasn’t been that warm.

Hate to tell you ... his/her doing so, mm isn't just a about a bias to see thru a CC lens ( assuming that's the gripe?) He may do that - truth be told ...don't know who we're really talking about haha. Just caught my eye Seriously, the poster may have that bias, but were right to have brought up that empirically true and important comparison. It lacks tact. Yup. During the d-drip of cryo-dystopia that's finally coursing through the veins of the weather-related psychotropic addict ...that's definitely going to come off as a NARCANian insult. LOL However, the truth of his/her aspect is of more importance when taking the longer view ... Probably even saying 'ethical' view is apropos. I sense some times we're preoccupied in social media, for seeking the possibility for big entertaining events, and not really thinking enough about what's going on behind the curtains. - just don't interrupt the show? I don't mean say anyone's immoral but, I'm just taking a stab at denialism straw-man there. The empirical data, and the fucking physical changes being existentially observed around the planet don't allow sanity and denial to exist in the same realm, any longer. But I digress.

February will be rockin

But anyone could make that forecast and no way to know if we get that 1 big one or mostly skunked

I posted about it in the November thread but yeah we should start discussing it since its been consistently showing up on the euro and gfs

If there's wind it will strip the leaves here too-right now close to peak and looks great

Decent call here. Wet wx possible in the W sub.

maybe because soaking rains are so common around here..........

trying to forecast one blockbuster snowstorm prior to winter is the same as trying to predict you will win the million dollar lottery - did anyone predict the blockbuster snowstorms prior to last winter ?

Past performance, doesn’t guarantee anything.

Great thread on SSW research & I screenshot Paul's reply in case someone misses it. Found interesting. He links a paper. https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115980492876984698?a=SxXaM4VN5NxdefH8xsg&s=19

October 30 1951: An early snow storm drops as much as 8 inches of snowfall in north central Minnesota. Mora had 8 inches, while Long Prairie received 6 inches. Glenwood, Little Falls, Morris, and New London all had 5 inches of new snow. Meanwhile, surrounding areas received a couple of inches. 1936: An intense dust storm causes damage in Central Minnesota. Heavy wind damage is reported in Stearns County. For Friday, October 30, 2026 1925 - Nashville, TN, was blanketed with an inch of snow, their earliest measurable snow of record. (The Weather Channel) 1947 - The Donora, PA, smog disaster finally came to an end. For five days an inversion trapped impurities in the lower atmosphere over the Monongahela Valley killing 20 persons, and leaving more than 2000 others sick. (26th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 74 mph near the town of Gould. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the central U.S. Temperatures warmed into the 80s form Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 20 degrees at South Bend IND was a record for October, and lows of 18 degrees at Grand Rapids MI and 20 degrees at Fort Wayne IND equaled records for October. The low of 2 degrees at International Falls MN smashed their previous record for the date by 11 degrees. Syracuse NY received 2.9 inches of snow to establish a record for October with 5.7 inches for the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Temperatures soared into the 70s in the northeastern U.S. The record high of 73 degrees at Alpena MI marked their sixth straight day of record warmth. In the western U.S., Klamath Falls OR reported a record low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 30 Fri National Text Your Ex Day 30 Fri National Checklist Day 30 Fri National Candy Corn Day 30 Fri Nevada Day 30 Fri National Breadstick Day 30 Fri Create a Great Funeral Day 30 Fri Mischief Night 30 Fri National Publicist Day 30 Fri National Speak Up For Service Day 30 Fri National Treat Your Pet Day 30 Fri Haunted Refrigerator Night