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  1. Past hour
  2. Typhoon Tip
    Relative to date, according to Climate Reanalyzer source the running sea ice is presently at a historic low
  3. Met1985
    Expected this. This is a stout cold front. 20 degrees below normal is impressive anytime of the year.
  4. GaWx
    Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:
  5. Ginx snewx
    Pope's beautiful NNE weekend
  6. powderfreak
    Spitting light snow with a half inch or so at the picnic tables.
  7. Chrisrotary12
    Can’t buy them in winter
  8. Maggie Valley Steve
    Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning issued for the Mountains.
  9. jaxjagman
    All good,i guess work does come before play..lol..Good to see you back tho !! Its always good to read your post and Jeff during severe to read yalls thoughts.Looks like you have a shot middle of next week,lots of uncertainty in our parts. In the long range the MJO seems to be getting stuck into the IO by a Rossby Wave plus also you have a Kelvin in the east so the signal is getting destroyed.But if the -AAM can stayed coupled with the MJO,we could get rather active in the long range
  10. RedSky
    Farmers have had a double whammy this spring as the drought persisted through the first three weeks of April adversely affecting early spring plantings and high fertilizer cost
  11. Chinook
    The NAM/GFS have a nor'easter for Nova Scotia- snow in May? I've seen it. At sea level? That's really pretty darn cold for sea level.
  12. Today
  13. ChescoWx
    April finished as the 12th warmest (POR 133 years) first month of spring here in Chester County PA below are the Top 20 warm years. Our average of 55.0 was +2.8 degrees above our 1991-2020 climate normal of 52.2 degrees. January thru April 2026 is the 57th warmest first 4 months of a yea
  14. ChescoWx
    April finished as the 12th warmest (POR 133 years) first month of spring here in Chester County PA below are the Top 20 warm years. Our average of 55.0 was +2.8 degrees above our 1991-2020 climate normal of 52.2 degrees. January thru April 2026 is the 57th warmest first 4 months of a yea
  15. SACRUS
    Clouds splitting the area in half angled
  16. snowman19
    Wow….
  17. RedSky
    The big warm spikes raised the average for March and April above normal but strangely the northeast trough still persisted. If you know anything about growing late April through May is the key growth period for crops everything is being stunted by this cold.
  18. CoastalWx
    Stein holding here. Not sure it will last though. Wish we had yesterday’s weather today.
  19. GaWx
    We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:
  20. nycwinter
    very chilly today..
  21. smokeybandit
    GFS keeps pumping out hefty totals in true GFS form.
  22. snowman19
    This latest MJO forecast propagation we just saw was actually stellar weeks in advance. Spot on actually
  23. weatherbo
    Mid 20's last night should rebound into the upper 40's today. I'll take it. Snowpack becoming patchy with the swamps and north facing areas still holding deeper snow. Will probably have areas of snow for another week, ending 6 months of snow cover.
  24. roardog
    Meh. We'll see. I've seen plenty of mjo forecasts for a month or more into the future fail miserably. I was talking about the next couple of weeks originally anyway.
  25. snowman19
    Incorrect
  26. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record. This is also the case for OHC comparisons.
  27. roardog
    The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.
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