All Activity

Periods of rain are likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild with temperatures topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Colder air will rush into the region tomorrow night. The closing days of November will be much colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30. The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +7.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.426 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.9° (1.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

AI EURO would be a nice start to the season

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1993264759794282993?t=BTUYDs0rjkTSzBtZFlACrg&s=19

It's all about those ads. Joe bastardi style

nothing but the best over there

I just figured it was an old map but when you look at the bottom right corner it's from today.

think they might need to curve that arrow preeeeeeetty sharply in the opposite direction

Yes please. Lol

That’s more than five days out.

The last two GFS op runs are well east of the GEFS mean days 5 through 6 with the shortwave and SLP in the east. The GEFS mean shows precipitation primarily in the lower MS valley while the op GFS shows it along and off the east coast. Discounting the op runs for now though an eastward trend is noted in the other mid-range op models. The GEFS seem to be somewhat of a compromise between the 12z EPS and GEPS. The GEFS would put us right on the edge of both significant precipitation and marginal temperatures for wintry precipitation.

Looking like a '90s map though

Not sure about this.AccuWeather..

Hate to say it but an amped Madison special at the break of December ain’t necessarily a bad thing based on trends it seems for nearly a decade. We need to bury the south east suppressed program early this year.

Well... I'd be lying if I said I wasn't surprised. Not sure if I said this here or just thought it to myself, but I was convinced that the early December torch signal was gonna break the streak of every E US Ridge trending into a trough. And that we were going to be flooded with 60s to start the meteorological season. Todays 18z suite so far looks to be an extension of the trends already present on the 12z runs. We might even have our first accumulating snow event of the season. Per the 18z GFS, a relatively weak shortwave will round the base of the longwave/TPV lobe and a fast moving system could bring some light snowfall for someone in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast early next week. Hopefully this isn't a repeat of 2024-25 where everything does a mega south trend to Antarctica

Let’s get that down to 26hrs then we talking.

Rippin' puddles here.

The Hayli Gubbi eruption: Reddit link I’ve been fairly preoccupied and trying to stay on top of all these volcanic developments and catch up in various threads here. Rest assured if anything really major happens on the volcanic front I’ll do a write up about it - though Hayli Gubbi erupting fits that bill as this doesn’t happen often (long dormant system suddenly waking up due to magma from a neighbor system), and this may not be fully over depending on what’s going on down below. I would also say there’s been some decent pulses of SO2 this year and last (Raung!) now into the stratosphere from all this activity. Not as much in total as say, El Chichon (and certainly nowhere close to Pinatubo), but enough to possibly have some effect. Was just reading about how cluster of VEI4’s may have had some impact in the 2009-2011 winters, which isn’t typical. Underscores that there’s a lot of interplay we don’t fully 100% understand, but I’ll always maintain volcanoes have a much bigger impact on climate than most realize. And we’re learning a lot of past historical climate disturbances were the result of multiple eruptions clustered together instead of just one, even Tambora had a massive precursor in 1808/9ish. But to be very clear anything from this year / last would be on the lowest end of impact, if at all. But still possibly something in total. Let’s see what happens going forward. Lot of systems showing unrest!

A euro vs gfs showdown again Usually waa wins. Gfs evolution is just strange. Definitely need some sampling of this system to help models.

We're good.

Winter IS coming.

Yep... Agree

Kilauea is doing sustained summit eruptions and recurrent lava fountaining - not to sell it short, spectacular lava fountaining. Apparently Kilauea is under increased magma supply right now from the hotspot and it’s putting it to good use filling in the 2018 caldera. Mount Rainier is just normal rumblings of its hydrothermal system, if it were to progress to something more the activity would present quite differently IMO. Very likely absolutely nothing other than standard activity. Laki Laki has had the biggest eruptions in its know history this year, it too potentially being under a period of increased magmatic supply. Several substantial sub-plinian blasts, I think combined definitely VEI4 territory. Big story right now is in Africa, a volcanic vent that’s been dormant through the Holocene - Hayli Gubbi just had a substantial eruption, possibly a small 4 or large 3 but a very gassy for the size due to the type of magma. The SO2 plume was actually similar to the early estimates of the MUCH larger Hunga Tonga eruption, which goes to show how eruption size doesn’t ALWAYS dictate the amount of gas reaching the stratosphere. Erta Ale, a very active system with a famous lava lake, had a bunch of its magma drain out and apparently form a lateral dike that extended under Hayli Gubbi, hit a pocket of stale, gassy magma, heat it up, and cause it to erupt. Super fascinating. Still ongoing too. We’ll see what happens. This theoretically could progress as I don’t think we really know what’s sitting under that system. The Afar region is poorly studied and monitored outside Erta Ale which is a big tourist attraction, well relatively speaking. The danakil depression / Afar region is super hazardous topography, very hot and very alien looking. Lot of crazy volcanism. Fernandina in the Galapagos is having a major swarm right now, that’s a very cool volcano that had a substantial and unusual basaltic plinian caldera eruption in the 1950’s. I think a large VEI 4, but still somewhat unique and was quite an intense (fast) event. We’ll see what happens. Lots of stuff going on right now, we’ll see how everything progresses.

18z vs 12z below

I stand by my statements that the GFS should get zero consideration in anything going forward. It’s not useful even from a 500 mb level in the medium range anymore. This summer was an all-time abysmal performance with the tropics and chasing extreme warmth that only happened once. With that being said, it’s a 2 in a room of 4s. I’m not bragging a bit on the other models. Even the AIFS which sniffed out the cold Dec start has endured a windshield wiper effect.

Scored more than up here lately.