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Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there.

I had a 31 inch storm in 2016. But I agree.

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3

Just to be clear, I am NOT suggesting that a RONI over 2.0 cannot materialize....I just do not think that it will. However, too early to rule anything out.

I don’t have it going later than 3/17. I got that 3/1-17 from another source as I didn’t produce the map. Of course, the full March will be warmer. Example (looking at Phoenix): 3/1-17 was +9 but 3/1-31 should be ~+12. I know where to find the lower 48 map after the month is over. Where can one get the up to date month to date map?

I saw on a show a long time ago that the huge natural aquifer out in the Plains is being quickly depleted by all of the crop irrigation taking place. So water issues may arise out there someday if that's true.

Don’t forget urine evaporating off the pavement.

I have said it before, but I will be STUNNED if we pull do go on to have a bonafide El Niño AND the -PDO persists....I just don't see that happening. It will be interesting to dive into which El Niño seasons were very mild across the east in the absence of a -PDO and Uber-strong intensity. I think it may be a relatively short list of awful winter seasons with a RONI below 2.0 and +PDO.

Summed up perfectly.

Just think about those long DD lines in the cruiser in July. Surrounded by concrete and dews near 75°. The smell of pigeon droppings and rotting rats in the sewer baking in the mid afternoon sun. The sky full of exhaust and haze.

Hopefully the prefrontal precip shown on some of the models for Tue morning pans out, as it looks like the late day convection will be another miss southeast. Luckily a nice wet system looks to be on the way for Thursday.

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.

34 CPK and LGA 13 KFOK Pretty epic UHI .

34 CPK and LGA 13 KFOK Pretty epic UHI .

The Great Lakes are the place to be when everything else goes to shit. At least we have fresh water.

let's see that map with the heat wave included

Easter egg hunt with some drizzle and temps in upper 30s . sounds beautiful

Great March. Little to no snow and wasn't cold, lfg!

Looks like shite after Wed

I'm not triggered at all....just having fun.

I love how it triggers you. It’s honestly hilarious

Been nice but a little chilly the last couple days. Snow melt has slowed some. Those bigger drifts are taking time to disappear, and the usual snow piles. Point looking chilly

Ah.....it's the time of year when @snowman19begins scanning the globe ....he's finally come upon hieroglyphics scribbled on a pyramid that when translated, offers conclusive evidence that El Nino will in fact be east-based, and winter is doomed. Love the dude's passion.....he's very eclectic and cultured in the he finds a way to ram it up the keister of winter enthusiasts in 17 different languages between spring and fall.