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Why wouldn't they continue to cool? Through history all sections of the pacific have had warming and cooling trends.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! With the passage of last night’s cold front, we will now see a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. Of note November will finish as another below normal temperature month. This will be the 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months with only September finishing with above average temperatures. Today looks mostly cloudy and breezy with the sun returning tomorrow and Saturday. Rain arrives by Sunday afternoon and ends in the evening. We then see a chance of snow arriving by Tuesday morning before it is likely to turn to rain from south to north during the day Tuesday.

CMC ens last night were also good… for the little it’s worth.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! With the passage of last night’s cold front, we will now see a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. Of note November will finish as another below normal temperature month. This will be the 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months with only September finishing with above average temperatures. Today looks mostly cloudy and breezy with the sun returning tomorrow and Saturday. Rain arrives by Sunday afternoon and ends in the evening. We then see a chance of snow arriving by Tuesday morning before it is likely to turn to rain from south to north during the day Tuesday.

Uh-oh

Tomorrow is looking windexy up here with potential for snow squalls.

Records: HIghs: EWR: 67 (1960) NYC: 72 (1896) LGA: 65 (2015) JFK: 63 (2020) Lows: EWR: 12 (1932) NYC: 12 (1932) LGA: 23 (1949) JFK: 23 (1949) Historical: 1701:Anders Celsius, the astronomer who invented the Celsius, often called the centigrade thermometer scale was born on this date. 1883 - Fire engines were called out in New York City and New Haven, CT, as a result of the afterglow of the sunset due to vivid red ash from the Krakatoa Volcano explosion in August. (The Weather Channel) 1898 - The Portland storm raged across New England producing gale force winds along the coast and heavy snow inland. A foot of snow blanketed Boston MA, and 27 inches fell at New London CT. Winds at Boston gusted to 72 mph, and wind gusts to 98 mph were estimated at Block Island RI. A passenger ship, the S. S. Portland, sank off Cape Cod with the loss of all 191 persons aboard, and Boston Harbor was filled with wrecked ships. The storm wrecked 56 vessels resulting in a total of 456 casualties. (26th- 28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1912: Northern Florida on November 27th and 28th : The only recorded November occurrence of snowfall in northern Florida. Traces of snow are reported in Blounstown, Tallahassee, Marianna and Mt. Pleasant measured 0.5 inches (1.2 cm). (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1919: Very cold air covered areas from the northern Plains, Rockies to the West Coast. Cheyenne, WY recorded a high of -4° which still remains the earliest day of the season that the temperature remained below zero. Some record low temperatures for the date included: Grand Forks, ND: -16°, Clayton, NM: -1° and Medford, OR: 13°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1938: The second heavy snowfall to hit the Northeast in three days dropped a foot in parts of New Jersey and 14 inches in parts of New York. The snow in New England was the heaviest November snowfall since the Portland Storm of 1898. Philadelphia, PA reported 6.9 inches of snow, their greatest snow for any November day. 4.3 inches on the 25th and 7.2 inches from the 26th through this date brought the total of 11 inches on the ground in Philly. Washington, DC set a daily snowfall record with 6.8 inches on the 25th. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1977: Canadian high pressure brought scattered record lows from the Lakes to North Carolina while high pressure over Idaho generated offshore winds in southern California bringing some record highs. Sparta, WI fell to -18°, their coldest November temperature. Other record lows included: Grand Rapids, MI: 5°, Muskegon, MI: 5°-Tied, Bristol, TN: 15° and Raleigh, NC: 19°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983: The barometer dropped to 28.17 inches over the Netherlands as an intense area of low pressure moved in from Ireland and England. The reading is the country's lowest pressure on record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1985: Cold hits northern Minnesota. 30 below zero at Crookston, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Wet weather prevailed across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Sunny and cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Snow fell in the central U.S., with totals in Kansas ranging up to six inches at Burr Oak. Much of the area from central Oklahoma to southwestern Minnesota experienced its first snow of the winter season. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Windom, and snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Aitkin. Snow drifts seven feet high closed many roads. Fargo ND reported a wind chill reading of 34 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A storm system crossing the north central U.S. spread snow across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Heavy snow fell in western South Dakota, with 18 inches reported at Galena. Strong winds associated with the storm gusted to 50 mph in the Great Lakes Region and the Great Plains, with blowing dust reported in Kansas. Thunderstorms associated with the same storm system produced damaging winds in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana during the evening, with gusts to 73 mph reported east of Ypsilante MI. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Twenty-three cities from the Gulf coast to the Ohio Valley and the Mid Mississippi Valley reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: Indian summer heat over Eastern half of U.S. set over 70 records broken over 2 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. - Has many additional temperature records.) 1993: Barcroft Hills Weather Center in a 20-hour rain had a total of 4.95 inches on 27th & 28th, which set a new 20-year record. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records) 1994: Chicago, IL received a trace of snow making this their latest date for the first snow of the season. Their normal first snow occurs on October 30th. High pressure brought chilly weather to southern California. Bishop, CA tied their daily record low with 9° and Long Beach, CA set a new record low with 38°. Shreveport, LA tied their record high with 82°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: A major winter storm lashed the southern two thirds of Wisconsin with thunder, heavy snow of 6 to 14 inches between Milwaukee and Madison, sleet, freezing rain, strong gusty winds, and near-blizzard whiteout conditions. Preceding the snow over southern Wisconsin there was a two to six hour period of sleet and/or freezing rain which glazed road surfaces. This was a dangerous storm which was forecasted two days in advance. The path of the responsible low pressure was from northern Missouri to southern Ontario, Canada. Some snowfall locations in Wisconsin included: Lone Rock: 11 inches, Richland Center: 10 inches, Owen: 8 inches, Mondovi: 7 inches and Viroqua: 6 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: A powerful winter storm, the first of the season, dumped between 3 and 8 inches of snow across portions of central and southwest Oklahoma. Isolated reports of up to 10 inches were reported across western north Texas. By the next day, Lawton, OK had 6 inches on the ground, while Munday, TX had accumulated 14 inches. A few locations across North Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date including: Charlotte, NC: 77°, Greensboro, NC: 74°-Tied and Asheville, NC: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (26th-27th) A convective snow band stayed almost stationary for approx. 12 hours today over parts of Central MN into West Central WI; many snowstorm totals > 20 inches. Willmar, MN was buried under 30.4 inches of snow. 20 inches of the total fell in a 24-hr period, thus setting its 24-hr record. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2005 - A major winter storm affected parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas during the 27th-28th. Snowfall accumulations of 16-20 inches were observed in parts of eastern South Dakota, while wind gusts exceeding 60 mph also accompanied the snow, creating blizzard conditions. Thousands of power outages were caused by the combination of strong winds and heavy snow. In South Dakota, about 8,000 utility poles and 10,000 miles of transmission line were brought down by the storm (Associated Press).

Solid start to the models today! A nice Chicago to Detroit sweeping Winter Storm with 6-10"

The waters are cooling there in the short term due to persistent strong convection in that area from the standing wave

Just saw a few flurries floating around here in Tamaqua. It feels really cold and raw today, too.

Seems like all major models are aligned here? NAM may be a bit stronger but also has the latest data

So nice to be tracking a system where we don't have to worry about the timing of a changeover, dry tongue issues, and moisture robbing 'vection.

45 / 22 clouds slicing NW-NJ with partly cloudy sotheast of there. Cooler/colder next 5- 7 days overall and a few storms/systems (Sunday / Tuesday) to see how they evolve. Overall a back and forth beyond there likely weighted below normal.

Seeing the waters in the western Pacific continue to cool is a great sign. One MET who was likely joking said "for the rest of our lives" regarding the "boiling" westpac warm pool. Also seeing the potential for a clear pass through phase 8 in December is another good sign. All in all good trends.

Hovering over the keyboard.

We’re getting invaded by the New England forum

Happy Thanksgiving!

Somewhere in Ayer, MA, fingers are getting ready to type

Caution when assessing the AI model at range, especially for setups that lean more delicate and have greater emphasis on energy ejections and thermal gradients involved. AI is a great model and actually performs very well inside 72hrs when it comes to 5H progression and MSLP characteristics. It can still be semi-erratic and off beyond the 72hr mark, although I will add that if the model doesn't waver much and it maintains credence inside 72hrs, it probably will be right more often than not. It's something to keep in mind when looking at the AIFS/AIFS-ENS package. It's a tool like any other piece of guidance, and it's verification is pretty damn good right now because it doesn't utilize the typical thermodynamic and dynamic functions that allow for greater swings in output compared to dynamical models. You'll know it might be on to something when it doesn't waver for a while and we begin reaching that critical point inside 48hrs.

I recently moved to Bucktown / Logan Square area so I get to have the neighborhood/suburb feel but still be in the city. No black slush for me!

Nope, it’s just like us. Ain’t learnt nothin. Haha

23 and flurries now. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Over performer incoming. Positive, the vestiges of it will be around in the form of frozen black slush all week.

Happy Thanksgiving All.