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Need to look at 700mb for the warm push and surface temps are not relevant

I feel like this is purposeful rage bait with stopping it at 7am Sunday when it’s an all day event Sunday,

I believe it’s right next to the Gulf of Mexico.

It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013?

Where is the Gulf of America?

Personally, I’m just glad that we only have THREE more days to watch the back and forth, and the corresponding play by play.

can't see what's going on along the MA.... but that looks like a wrist-slitter for those guys

When this monster winter is over i need you to give me some classes, damn i wish i knew a tenth of what you do.

More snow, of course.

The redevelopment of the low, if any will be key GFS has it tracking away from the coast and the Euro hugs the coast

So far 6z EURO held EURO AI nudged south and colder. GFS looked amazing but not waisting much time on it.

With the watches going up overnight it hit me this morning that this is the first real biting storm with both of the girls not here. One in Southern PA on campus and the other in DC off campus. My mom mind kicked in and have been talking with both of them this morning about what to have on hand. Rightfully so the DC kid brought up the possibility of loosing power. And for that matter I also told the PA kid that could be a possibility.

Mine is good for 3 feet, but there’s room for more if needed. The solar light on top was an addition this year. Good for seeing depth at night from the window.

Lazy... You drinking your coffee in the warmth of your home... while we have to bundle up to check our measurements with a wooden stick.

WRAL's first forecast with numbers is exactly the 06z Euro.

long time no read my friend.... hopefully we can score this

Was that the downtown lake effect special?

That seems aggressive.

Watching the The Weather Channel this morning (don't berate me for that) they said that planes (hurricane hunter type) are going to where the LP is off the coast of CA and also to the Gulf of America to collect high resolution data that will feed the models. My question to you guru's is how might that information affect the models?

I know one thing for sure after this last week. Models can’t be trusted for anything other than a threat detection more than 3 days out. Heck, we’re under 3 days and it’s still a bit up in the air. Other lesson learned. Don’t listen to folks saying that there’s “no way that low can cut up through that strong high pressure”.

Im opposite. Im more concerned it keeps pushing nw until we get freezing rain/sleet lol.

My wife just reminded me that I posted this on Facebook 10 years ago today. I guess history does repeat itself…… .

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