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As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. Check out the early season lead though... Pretty strong May-July You can make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 vs Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator for Winter WPO.

If it were up to me, I would merge the Upstate NY/Pennsylvania/Philadelphia, and NYC into one region, and do it like this: New England - CT/MA/VT/NH/RI/ME NY/PA/NJ Mid-Atlantic - DE/MD/DC/VA/WV

I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.

Mid latitudes are kind of on fire the last few years.. I would just like to see a trough 45N in the Pacific

This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter.

Seems in April there was one in Connecticut, my lawn was brown and dormant, we'd go 45 minutes south into Connecticut for golf, and the grass was nice and green a goods two weeks before mine.

Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer.

I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing.

You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario.

Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it.

Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August

Is a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder?

This event may finally cause the stagnant, record breaking warm pool in the WPAC to move. This may be the one to finally flip the Pacific:

AGAIN....don't mistake this for me saying it has to be cold in the east next year...not what I am implying.

We just flipped from this: To this: And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back?? Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause-

Agreed, but I doubt we have a -PDO next season, and I'm also not sure it's east-based. The Pacific is changing....I don't think you are going to pull off an appreciable warm ENSO and maintain -PDO. We just saw that two years ago and it isn't happening again...never has.

+QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00)

Yes, sir- Seen the debate from time to time. Understand your opinion. If we merge and continue to 'represent"- might work out as a more integrated entertaining/educational forum- such as the New England forum has acheived- despite it being hundreds of miles in breadth- but united across 6 states. We could pull that off, too- given another attempt.

Lake front just hit About a 15 degree difference between my apartment and the lakefront a quarter mile away

If we can get the western regions to amp up, these are our most western weighted strong +ENSO events since 2000.. this pattern is phasing out over the course of the last few decades though.

The ridge west, trough east alignment seems to be almost stuck. Not literally, of course it moves, but it has been dominant lately so no need to think it cant continue next winter. It was dominant for almost a decade it seemed if we look back just 11-12 years or so. And of course it goes without saying that the blazing SW is doing the heavy lifting for ranking conus winter warmth. Chuck and I have discussed, I personally dont worry about "cold" when it comes to snow. Its more about storm tracks. You can absolutely apply that to the Great Lakes and New England. Further south, of course its different. We have now had 2 cold winters in a row. With an El Nino coming Id be very surprised to see a 3rd cold winter in a row locally. The last 2 winters here have been cold and snowcovered with powder which is my favorite, but not gonna lie, with the biggest storm this winter 6.2" and biggest last winter 4.6", a milder winter would likely send more dynamic winter storms into this area. Historically its a mix, but for the last 3 decades, milder winters have produced some real dynamic snowstorms.

I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet.

I did? Anyway, I'm not willing to delve in any further at this point.

March 2026 might be the most +NAO March on record since 1950. Look at how that goes with El Nino later in the year..

Just hit 60 here