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It’s also on the 0Z UKMET, the 3rd run in a row with this one a little stronger with a min of 1003 mb/max of 52 knots/60 mph. It forms off of S SC and then moves N into NC OB area followed by a move E offshore and then a S drift as it weakens: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.4N 76.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.10.2026 72 32.4N 76.0W 1010 42 1200UTC 18.10.2026 84 34.0N 75.1W 1008 48 0000UTC 19.10.2026 96 32.5N 75.9W 1003 52 1200UTC 19.10.2026 108 34.2N 75.2W 1005 45 0000UTC 20.10.2026 120 36.2N 75.6W 1004 40 1200UTC 20.10.2026 132 36.6N 74.7W 1006 35 0000UTC 21.10.2026 144 36.4N 73.1W 1007 33 1200UTC 21.10.2026 156 35.0N 72.7W 1009 34 0000UTC 22.10.2026 168 32.7N 73.4W 1012 35

Only tied the record today. Pretty confident tomorrow will be record breaking. Friday? Possibly. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 0527 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ATLANTA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS TIED AT ATLANTA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 87 DEGREES SET IN 1940.

Model QPF continues to downtrend at the last minute with tomorrow's wave. Much like it did with yesterday's. Overall a pretty lame storm system to be sure. Hopefully interesting weather will return sometime next month.

I’m assuming this is tropical on the 0Z Icon: holy cow!

It actually gives us three separate snow storms that run starting October 25th.

Had a nice late sunset with a moon over the South Lawn tonight.

midnight shower as the front moved through

Today's Highs: ACY: 85 ISP: 82 New Brnswck: 81 TTN: 81 EWR: 80 BLM: 80 PHL: 80 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 JFK: 79 NYC: 77

88 fir a high

You getting this big jet flying over and over. Ken either?

John, thanks. Are you referring to the late Sept of ‘26 nor’easter? If so, I was just counting ones in October though I realize it was within a week of Oct and thus very likely largely connected to the very strong Nino. But I didn’t check Sept for any of those 9 analogs. So, if we count that one, does that reduce the chance for a 2nd E coast storm later this month? I never found two really notable E coast storms for any of the 9 analog years in Oct, itself. I suspect that may be more than just randomness. Maybe one strong E coast storm late Sept/Oct is enough to sort of calm down the atmosphere and prevent a 2nd one? What do you think? If so and if we count the late Sep nor’easter, maybe that would reduce the chance for another for the rest of Oct?

Based on 100% of the 9 very strong Nino analogs back to 1877-8 having a near E coast (SE and/or NE) storm of some kind in October, I’m leaning to cyclogenesis next week close enough to affect parts of the E coast. This could be a nor’easter, a TC, or hybrid. These include -early Oct 2015 highly unusual complex setup associated with a combo of well offshore Joaquin and a SE US ET upper low/stationary front resulting in devastating SC flooding rain -late Oct 1991 “Perfect Storm” hybrid in NE -late Oct 1982 strong nor’easter centered on mid-Atlantic that lead to a very rare Oct combo of a long duration of continuous rain, strong winds, and cold (40s) -early Oct 1972 very strong nor’easter that was worst Hatteras to NYC (both ~4”+ rain) -early Oct 1957 strong nor’easter hit Hatteras/lower mid-Atlantic hardest ————— Edit: @Typhoon TipI think was pointing out that the late Sep ‘26 nor’easter may have been close enough to Oct to count as the ‘26 version. I’m waiting for him to clarify. But if so, I do wonder if that reduces the chance for one next week since I found only one in Oct for each of the 9 years. Hmmm. Any thoughts anyone?

I finally figured out your screen name. As always ……

There have been over a half dozen strikes on the east coast during the years you said were zero. A simple Google search into the seasonal hurricane archives could have told you that Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

DT and JB like this threat for the coast.

High of 92.5F here in upper NW. Still 78F.

It's an insane meteorological solution. The low I've been discussing in the long range thread somehow cuts off and generates its own cold air. No way its right but was funny to see. I'll miss the NAM.

Not yet. Maybe early next year will be baby number 2.

I am at 0.71” total. On Monday the QPF for me was forecasted to land just under 1.2”. Starting to rain again and temp has dropped to 38.