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Near 10 days to go......what could possibly go wrong?

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

I haven’t really seen anything with the people I’m following in East Tennessee no posts or weather coverage .

I take nothing seriously from a quack who failed out of meteorology school

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

How about them Pats. Amazing what competent coaching and some decent drafting and signing can do. Plus a weak strength of schedule . Not convinced they are "very good", but at least they are playoff worthy in a weak AFC.

Yes, there are already some studies suggesting that it erodes critical thinking skills. That's a real problem.

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This is another example why I call out hypesters such as Bamwx, et al., at times: Notice his claim about the Fall NAO vs. the Winter NAO. Most of his readers likely don't know that the NAO's values can be found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table They take for granted what he says, especially as it might fit their winter preferences. But if one actually takes a look at the actual data, during 1950-2024, there were 38 cases where the fall NAO averaged < 0. From those cases, just 13 (around 34%) saw the winter NAO average < 0. So, almost the opposite of what he claims. That's a fact. It's not speculation. Hype, misleading information, and repeatedly low forecast verification from pushing extremes creates bad perceptions about the many meteorologists who do their best to provide the public with useful, actionable weather information.

Front is here. Temp has dropped to 58 now.

__ Preliminary scoring estimates for October 2025 __ Estimates are based on latest posted end of month anomaly projections in previous post. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL Ephesians2 ____________ 14 _ 34 _ 50 _098 _ 92 _ 90 _72 _252 _350_ 80 _ 74 _ 90 _244 __ 594 Roger Smith ___________ 30 _ 30 _ 34 _094 _ 96 _100_70_266 _360_100 _ 60 _ 56 _216 __ 576 StormchaserChuck1 ___ 36 _ 40 _ 50 _126 _ 86 _ 88 _ 50 _224 _350_ 70 _ 96 _ 80 _246 __ 596 RJay ___________________ 40 _ 40 _ 50 _130 _ 90 _ 70 _ 40 _200 _330_100_100_ 80 _280 __ 610 DonSutherland1 ________ 50 _ 58 _ 70 _178 _ 92 _ 64 _ 34 _ 190 _368 _76 _ 48 _ 76 _200 __ 568 wxallannj _______________54 _ 62 _ 70 _186 _ 40 _ 66 _ 46 _ 152 _338_ 80 _ 86 _ 72 _238 __ 576 hudsonvalley21 _________58 _ 68 _ 78 _204 _ 64 _ 54 _ 36 _ 154 _358 _98 _ 62 _ 76 _236 __ 594 ___ Consensus _________58 _66 _ 74 _ 198 _ 68 _ 64 _ 38 _ 170 _368 _86 _ 78 _ 70 _234 __ 602 so_whats_happening ___60 _ 64 _ 72 _196 _ 70 _ 62 _ 42 _ 174 _370 _ 88 _ 80 _ 48 _216 __ 586 yoda ___________________ 64 _ 82 _ 94 _240 _ 50 _ 64 _ 36 _ 150 _390 _ 86 _ 62 _ 74 _222 __ 612 BKViking _______________ 68 _ 76 _ 86 _230 _ 34 _ 60 _ 24 _ 118 _348 _ 80 _ 80 _ 64 _224 __ 572 Tom ____________________ 70 _ 78 _ 88 _236 _ 56 _ 60 _ 22 _ 138 _374 _ 84 _ 78 _ 70 _232 __ 606 Scotty Lightning ________70 _ 90 _100_260 _ 20 _ 60 _ 20 _ 100 _360 _ 80 _ 70 _ 70 _ 220 __ 580 wxdude64 ______________88 _ 96 _ 86 _270 _ 00 _ 46 _ 10 _ 056 _326 _ 52 _ 96 _ 66 _ 214 __ 540 RodneyS _______________ 98 _ 76 _ 88 _262 _ 76 _ 42 _ 60 _ 178 _ 440 _ 92 _ 88 _ 62 _ 242 __ 682 ___ Normal _____________100 _ 90 _ 80 _270 _ 00 _ 30 _ 00 _ 030 _ 300 _60 _100 _80 _240 __ 540 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _ 96 _ 82 _ 98 _ 276 _ 60 _ 80 _ 24 _164 _440 _58 _ 80 _ 50 _188 __ 628 =================== EXTREME FORECASTS (for the benefit of new forecasters, an extreme forecast is awarded when either most extreme or second most extreme forecast takes high score. Also, by contest convention, forecasters with fewer than three forecasts in a given year are eligible for these extreme forecasts but they are also scored for contest scoring purposes as if that forecast was not in play, and no loss is awarded when both win under the two systems. The same is true for best scores ... note Yoda has now entered enough contests to void the occasional entry rule). DCA _ On current estimates, RodneyS (and Normal) have a win for lowest forecasts. NYC _ On current estimates, wxdude64 has a win for lowest forecast. BOS _ On current estimates, Scotty Lightning has a win, and wxdude64 a loss, for lowest forecasts. ORD _ On current estimates, no extreme forecast would be awarded. The result will need to be +5.5 or higher. If it were +5.5, RJay would have a win, StormchaserChuck a loss. At +5.6 they would be tied, and at +5.7 or higher, it would be a win for SC. ATL _ This could finish as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule if result +3.8 or above), or a win for Roger Smith and loss for Ephesians 2 (if result +3.3 to +3.7), or a win for RodneyS and losses for Roger Smith and Ephesians 2 (if result +2.8 to +3.2). IAH _ On current estimates, this would be scored as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule). DEN _ The current estimate of +2.0 is just below the value needed to consider a win-loss scenario (at +2.1 to +2.3, win for hudsonvalley21, and loss for DonSutherland, at +2.4 or above, a win for DonSutherland. PHX _ On current estimates, a win for RJay (0.0) and Normal, and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.2). With third lowest forecast at +0.2, StormchaserChuck joins tie for win at +0.1, and forecast no longer "extreme" at +0.2 to +1.9. SEA _ On current estimates, a win for Ephesians2 and also tied StormchaserChuck and RJay (and Normal) (regular forecast rule) ... would be a win for same regulars and loss for Ephesians2 at any outcome -0.2 to 0.0, no longer extreme at +0.1 or above. __________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5

It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years.

we might need to place some restrictions so children (under 18) aren't using it for their school projects, I feel like it discourages independent thinking.

Raindance, I assume you realize those two analogs had opposite QBO (west) to our current/upcoming east. Any thoughts about that and why they’re still good analogs?

It's 76/57 and quite breezy/windy(15-G30ish) here in Charles County as well. I'm sure the higher elevations are gusting quite well ahead of this system.

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out. That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

I believe it. Home and it’s quite gusty

Ive all ready heard very cold and snowy to the point you wish we skip winter to battleground of the cold and warm meaning ice ice more ice. To the other extra very milk winter no snow temps 15 degrees above normal lol.

MRB gusted to 44. Pretty impressive for pre-frontal winds.

If you look at the snowfall map a 20-25 mile shift would have done it. That would have put my area in the bullseye instead of Cambridge, and you would have gotten a solid 4", probably more with your elevation. The folks on the southern fringe- eh, fuck em'. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220103 Very nice overview of the storm, but ofc the maps are never perfect. Official report for Greensboro was 9.8". I measured 9 but I am NW of the town. According to the map this area was in the 6-8" zone.

Temp has been revised down to 34 tomorrow morning. I'd say we see some 20s this week fellas.

Let’s spin some trees down onto lines

The wind is absolutely cranking with a temp of 62 and intermittent showers.

18z hrrr actually shows this. Bigguns within the line.