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looks like dry out with frontal sweep but backside modest 850 mb anomaly persists. d-slope trajectories under full sun ( tho seasonally tepid) should send T's above climo

Pretty sparse rainfall down here so far. I got 0.46" Sunday morning, but very little since then.

We track Let's go !

1.13" Nearly double what I had gotten the last 2 months combined.

40s dews here this weekend.

Meh

@SnowDemon https://magazine.hms.harvard.edu/articles/noise-and-health

Had a decent little cell pop up near me. Just hit 80 and it's even more humid feeling now.

Any warm anomaly at all is extremely bad news for snow south of Connecticut.

12, Euro gives some hope.. but not until day 11-12 these models are all over the place

Also AL93 is what would need to develop for any EC interest and it looks like AL94 will be the one

Blocking would be nice but we've had blocking many times with a perfect set up and still storms missed us. Sometimes a strong block can actually keep storms too far south.

Euro with 2-3" of rain through Monday. GFS less than 1"

Sorta similar setup too with the coastal. Op Euro goes nuts with it. 2” swath through metro corridor. Would be nice after this storm is a semi-bust.

81 / 67

Everything has 60’s well into mid week now

Added 1.1 inches of additional rain from midnight through early morning.

The same can be said every year. If this board were around for the 95-96 and 97-98 winters, I’m sure you would have had people saying 95-96 was going to be a warm and snowless winter because of the Niña and on the flip side, I’m sure you would have had the weenies trying to force a cold and snowy winter for the 97-98 super El Niño. There are biases at play every year

And when they post I often wonder whether they're secretly giddy in posting bad news because of being warministas...but we haven't had a promising winter outlook in years, so when the year comes when we finally do, and it does produce, I'm interested to see how they post then, lol

There is also some solid evidence against another abysmal season, but some will ignore. I hear what you're saying, but feel like it's intellectually lazy. At the end of the day, we were due for extended regression.

This "wet" stretch of weather has been a dud locally. We've had a little over a tenth of an inch (total since Sunday). Looks like south and east of I-71 has been the jackpot zone. Still some chances today but after that it looks like it could be a while before it rains again.

If anything came up the coast it would transition to a cold core system so quickly. It would lose its tropical characteristics upon getting off the Carolina coast. "Worst case" scenario is some much needed rain and probably 30-40 mph gusts, mostly at the coast. And that is even fantasy

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