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This man climos

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

Here are the actual three major possibilities. 1. Jan 2000-like, a blizzard from Raleigh to Boston. 2. Jan 2022-like, a blizzard from the Outer Banks, Delmarva, Jersey Coast, and eastern New England. The I-95 corridor receives snowfall, but it's less than option one. 3. OTS; it's a fish storm. What is the most likely possibility? I am not sure. These are the three major possibilities, not all the possibilities.

March 2015 I called no mas on the snow. That’s when I had like 42” OTG.

Am I missing something?? I wasn’t an ace at math but I feel I am close? *shrugs

Boing…

Couple more bands out to the west still to rotate across region but not like that last one

That was a fantastic storm that was almost a complete surprise. I lived in Raleigh at the time... a couple hours before the first flakes, the forecast was for mostly rain.

I’m sure you are right. Definitely nothing record setting or even remotely close. I remember when I was in medical school in Washington DC we had one season where it hardly snowed at all and another where they had 2‘ over 48 hours. Similar experiences in NYC as well. Lots of boom or bust. .

It’s the GRAMMYS. Can. Not. Come. Back. And my Date is Ms. Oklahoma. NOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHY I’M F-ING LOSING MY MIND!?!? I come back Tuesday. TUESDAY. Wait until Wednesday PLEASE.

I know I seem really confident here... I am not. And I have no special insight. But I do know if the trend across guidance of the last 2 weeks or so, ever since the current pattern started of severe -AO and a retrogressing longwave pattern, this will look nothing like what people think of when they say "miller b". Does that mean this hits...probably not, most of our threats fail, even in a year like 2010, we remember the big hits...we don't remember the 2 storms in December that failed before Dec 19, or the one around New Years, or the one in mid January that made Ji go thermal nuclear and blow up the thread, or the 2 later in February or the one in March that made Ji say the season was ruined. Even in the absolute BEST possible patterns we fail more than we win...but if we get a good pattern and have it lock in for a significant period of our cold season...we do usually eventually win...and I think we will this year also. What I can say about this threat specifically is that unless guidance is way off on the depth of the trough this is not similar to our typical miller b setup. Could it trend towards that...yea, if the NS wave starts not digging as far south...if we start to see it start to trend northeast...then yea this becomes a typical NYC to Boston storm and yes that could happen. But...know what else could happen...if the seasonal trend continues and the whole trough ends up another 200 miles west 5 days from now...this ends up closer to January 1996 than a typical miller b. That was a northern stream wave that dove in and captured a weak STJ wave also...but it dove in through the Dakotas and right now guidance has this diving in through Wisconsin. Shift this west a bit and its almost identical to the 1996 setup. It's also coming as a previous -3stdv greenland block dissipates as it retrogrades into central Canada, which was the setup in 1996 also! I am NOT saying this is a 1996 repeat...just that its a lot closer to that type of thing than I think many realize. If we only get a slight west shift it becomes similar to January 1966, take a look at the h5 in the KU book for that one...its damn close just that one the NS wave dove in around the WI/MN border...slightly west of where guidance has this one. It could go the other way, past does not always predict future. Maye the trend this time is north...or east...or south and the deep south gets clobbered...but if whats been the most common guidance error were to play out...we would end up with a serious threat here from this...that's all I am saying. Oh and BTW 1996 looked almost identical to what the models are showing right now when it was 3-5 days out...it didn't morph into a huge storm for us until 24 hours out. Remember when Bob Ryan cam back on the 11 news after his actual weather segment to say "we're getting a blizzard" at the end of the broadcast. They didn't even have graphics yet...but the 0z guidance all came out during the 11 news and showed it shifting north. Until then it was a richmond to NC blizzard. Yea the guidance is better now...so maybe that correction would happen around day 4 instead of day 1-2 but it's not so much better that a similar error can't happen 5-6 days out from the storm.

so what was the highest jack from this one? I saw a 24.7" in Sterling I think, but nobody else I saw over 22", yet that is.

Always round up!!

18z EPS, Starting to get some west huggers and insiders now, Looks like west lean on the mean

We want every roof down

Dumping!

Grammys are this Sunday

There shall not be any “vagaries” in those three statements. This I give unto you and those that may deny me. For this is the truth and the word.

Yeah, notification went out from Delmarva Power that more outages may happen due to heavy ice on trees and limbs falling on wires. The back roads (peachtree rd) were 4" of ice and we saw limbs down from pine trees.

The GFS run looks brutally cold through Feb 15th...not sure we get a day above freezing through the entire run.

Ok, where the hell is DT to get all hyped up lol

Nah no flakes

Some early maps look like the blizzard of 1888. But why stop there?

Sheer beauty out there… snow covered roads, massive piles, huge dendrites falling and rapidly accumulating. Another 2 inches for east areas at least.

Eps are tasty. Lots of left leaning members in there. Skewed by a few wayyy ots