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I'm worried about the low water advisory the most.

yall can debbie all you want, but so far 0z mesos look just fine to me. minimal taint and front end poundtown.

Amazing! Thank you so much for helping me understand the dynamics of this storm! (not banter).

The model outputs a couple days ago started for the south and Missouri valley started Twitter arguments between metrologist so intense it ended up all over the news. I think a prudent thing to do is look who was right tomorrow morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

how much does 2” per hour at 10:1 add up in 3 hours?

100%. Very subtle changes but as you said a shift of a few hours could make a difference with heavy rates prior to the changeover. The Nam does worry me. It seems off on its on but I've seen it win sometimes in these set ups. Hopefully not this time lol

That at 10:1 ratio... It's gonna be 15:1 atleast when this gets going. But how long that lasts is anyone's guess..

Take it to banter man. Don’t ruin the obs / discussion

I don't know how useful SREF plumes are, but they have a wide range for snow at LGA: 4" to 22" with a 12.4" mean.

BTV stayed the course too.

gotta be the coldest night of the year because of the wind, i'm sure next week temps wise it'll get colder but it won't be as windy

This is what falls as snow on the rrfs. Then it flips and we get a ton of sleet

It wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Har … wait what?

It’s been a long time since the whole area has been under a WSW

It gets sleet from a line from Port Jervis to just south of Boston. If sleet really gets that far north it's hard to see how the immediate NYC area and coast do well.

So far the NAM is the warmest model, while others have inched better. Lets see how the GFS,UKMET and EURO do here.

Agree I think upton is being too aggressive and Mount Holly even more aggressive. They are probably being cautious to alert the public and will back down a little tomorrow if current modeling holds.

Red line is temperature. Green line is dew point. The solid black line that rises to the top right indicates the freezing level from the ground upward. Precipitation falls when the temperature and dew point line are touching at the bottom of the chart (the ground). Snow falls when the temperature and dew point lines stay to the left of the solid black freezing line. When you see the temperature line make a triangular shape bulge to the right of the freezing line, this indicates melting in that layer. If the raindrop continues to fall and the temperature line moves back to the left of the freezing line, the raindrop will refreeze. If the warm layer is high enough above the ground, the precipitation will be sleet, but if the triangular bulge happens near the ground, then rain will re-freeze as freezing rain.

No need for your BF to DoorDash a yardstick

This is it exactly... 2" per hour at 15:1 adds up real quick...

I’m comparing the ICON to the ICON. Its algorithms didn’t change from 18z to 0z.

17.1 with DP of 2. WC of 6 Brrrrr

Banter

24 here but dropping fast