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I wonder if that Amazon Prime jet was able to be unloaded and have the packages get to their destinations, eventually. (maybe they're still unloading and dealing with the cargo.)

I'm actually totally fine with whatever happens. Don't need the extreme cold though

All time worst winter. we were ice skating on the bay last winter so whatever happens this year I’ll take it

This is an 'Andy Rooney': Not sure what the preoccupation for defining the culpability pie slices is all about in baking the end of the world. It's also perfunctory that nature provides cataclysms - yeah. okay. 'why are you telling us this' like it's novel? It seems attempting to dole out blame as being less because of anthropomorphic forcing is like seeking permission to keep doing it. The role of humanity is actively problematic to the world. That still exists, either way. - as an aside... there is an apparent lack of applied physical science backgrounds the aroma of the way voices are sounding off. It's coming across as regurgitate skepticism from other sources, those that push backs against human caused environmental urgency, if not sketchy motivated - Increasing melt water destabilizes land... that's just perfunctory. All this stuff about needing research isn't actually necessary because of that factored reality, that is already known. The amount of x-y-z should be less meaningful if you helped the killer aim the gun. Your contribution is not 0. At some point, the that which is known needs to be applied as a common sense approach - otherwise you're waiting around to reinvent the wheel every time you have to jump in the care to go for a ride. You're not doing that - right? No need to prove melt water, plied to a bedrock - when it was visibly doing so - is going cause a reaction. It's also a bad term, bed'rock' - when the generic ear hears bedrock ... they hear rock. Like a solid igneous or granite-like substance. It's more like compact sedimentary deposits covered over by other regolith-ice composites, that were the were the destabilizing aspect. Also, cracking deeper is perfunctory in repeating thaw and freezes, an oscillation of phase change forces that have been incurring with greater frequency over recent decades. All of this is not debatable. And as that has occurred post antecedent and ongoing concurrent warmer than normal setting that is heavily correlated already to CC breaching the high country up there... I don't believe your going to get a really 'in depth' report any more than than you would over whether wheels are round. stop this. Again, what is the purpose... this latter aspect is still happening, and since the variable cites fit it 100%, there's no use - humanity does not escape culpability.

lol - I was there from 2008-2010 in grad school. I did root for the Phillies in the 08 World Series because I wanted to party in the streets. But I just can't do it - particularly since the Phillies have several of our old players. I'm less of a diehard Commanders/Redskins fan, but I can't pull for the Iggles lol.

My thoughts on this winter, it is going to suck.

Yeah man, this is good stuff. Brings back some nostalgia for 93-94.

Thanks for posting that. Regarding the PNA based on analyses I’ve done on snowfall for SE cities like RDU and ATL, a +PNA is the #1 most correlated index to snow in the SE. Since El Niño and +PNA are well correlated, having El Niño on average tends to be good relative to other ENSO for SE snow chances in general.

He's even got those miller, B's transferring off the carolina coast. This is a good man that knows how to look out for our best interest.

I think the map shows preexisting. The new line was going to connect the Algonquin and the Tennessee pipelines in PA and NY, follow the right of way of the Tennessee into western Mass, then run a new line across northern Mass into NH.

I know the Algonquin has been there for many years and is still used today . I used to ride dirt bikes along it back in the day.

Had a low of 54 here as well with a current high temp of 75.

Do you happen to know if the pipelines shown on that map are preexisting or were they part of the proposal you mentioned?

I haven't been active in this thread so apologize if it's already been shared before, but Dr. Jonathan Wall has a great project developed on his website at https://snow.wall.cloud/ You can dive really deep into and compare statistical significance of various teleconnections for a few different snowfall criteria (i.e. trace of snow at 10% or more of stations, 25% of stations measuring 0.1" or more snow, total event coverage or magnitude of snow totals, etc), and all of this broken down by NWS CWAs. But what's neat is you can also break it down further with these various teleconnections during El Nino, neutral, and La Nina. Here is an example between BOX and PHL CWAs in an El Nino winter for the PNA. The PHL CWA leans towards/favors +PNA for number of qualifying days with at least 25% of stations measuring snow. Meanwhile, BOX weakly leans towards/favors -PNA. The numbers on the maps are all absolute differences between percentages. Of course, the caveat is that there are some outliers in both situations and it's not consistent amongst all measurable snowfall days. In fact (and you can find this on the website) the most statistically significant teleconnection is a -EPO across both CWAs (most significant when selecting "all winters" and not just separating out ENSO): Here is another example but with QBO during El Nino just for shits and giggles. PHL actually leans towards +QBO for number of qualifying days with measurable snow at 25% of eligible stations (I'll have to look into the details of the data here, I wonder if there's some bias from big dogs that formed during +QBO/+ENSO seasons) and eastern BOX leans towards -QBO but western BOX leans towards +QBO. Again, very very important to note this is not gospel and there are outliers that prove snowstorms can happen in either phase of QBO. Either way, cool website and wanted to share. All of the details should be there on the site. From the site: "This is a descriptive historical phase comparison: each DJF winter is grouped by its mean index phase. Red favors positive phase, blue negative. The shading estimates the station-rate pattern between qualified stations."

I’m thinking 5-15 above, the upside potential is even higher the 2015. I do think do to the unprecedented level of energy that will be ejected into the subtropical jet there could be some surprises. As others have said it just takes the right timing. But overall the early winter warmth is likely historic if not record breaking. .

Historically those are not the greatest for snowfall in these parts, correct?

For anyone who happens to care, this is what I just posted elsewhere about my up to date general feelings about AGW/CC: 1) Anthropogenic Global Warming (human-caused CC) is real, has caused mean global temperature to warm ~2-3F, and is causing it to warm further. 2) Regarding CC reducing snowfall, that’s been true overall, which is intuitive. But for a specific location, the relationship between CC and change in avg snowfall is complex as it can actually cause heavier snowstorms in some cases since warmer air holds more moisture. This is especially the case where normals are well below 32F. 3) What’s debatable are four main things as I see it: a) Projections of rate of future warming because of realistic possibility of negative feedback loops, on which climate models likely don’t have a good handle. One example is “CO2 Fertilization Effect”: ^CO2 leads to ^photosynthesis, which leads to greener planet. Also, warmer planet means longer growing seasons and growing in higher latitudes than before. Greener means ^CO2 absorption for globe. So, at some point increase in CO2 would likely decelerate and perhaps later completely stop. b) I’m not at all saying AGW/CC’s good. The main concern I have is rising sea level caused by combo of melting land based ice and expansion of oceans due to warming waters. Also, it likely leads to increased flooding events since warmer air holds more H2O. That includes wetter TCs. But CC isn’t all bad. Why? - It’s likely leading to larger crops overall due to a combo of CO2 Fert. Effect, longer growing seasons due to warming, and ability to grow crops at higher latitudes due to warming. That means larger food supply and at least in theory less hunger. -Cold in the past has killed many more than heat globally. Thus so far, CC has actually lead to reduced deaths from extreme temps. But admittedly assuming globe continues to warm, increased heat related deaths will likely overtake reduced cold related deaths. c) Storminess: CC may actually be reducing the avg storm strength. Why? It has caused much more rapid warming in Arctic than in tropics. That means reduced temp. difference from poles to tropics, which means slower jet stream, which means less energy available for storms to strengthen. Possibly related to this: typhoon activity has come down in recent decades. d) There’s a lot of controversy concerning the connection of CC to individual extreme events aka “CC attribution”. I feel it’s overdone at times or at least there’s often a rush to attribute extreme events to CC without enough time or evidence to soundly prove it. I’m not saying no extreme events have been made worse by it. Almost certainly extreme heatwaves have been made worse by it than would otherwise have been the case. Example: the March SW US heatwave. But here are some examples of a rush to judgement about the CC connection that needs much more time to study it: -Nepal disaster. Whereas CC probably was at least a minor cause since it has been leading to melting glaciers overall, was it actually a major cause as some have already claimed? If bedrock failure was indeed the major cause, was that in itself due to GW? This needs much more time to study as it is very complex. -Wildfire disasters: Whereas a warmer globe has likely helped lead to increased fires in some cases, that likely hasn’t been the case for many fires. Also note that global burnt acreage year to date has actually been during the last 2 years the lowest it has been as of this date since 2012! ———————— Edit: I forgot to mention that the UHI effect needs to be taken into account when comparing temperatures in past decades to today. This is especially the case for comparing temps for large cities/metro pop. that had much smaller pop. in those past decades.

I doubt that this December will be +10..thats a once in a lifetime warmth..+3-5 seems more reasonable and in December it can snow especially in New England away from the coast.

There was a proposal a few years back to build a larger pipeline from PA into New England that was working it's way through regulatory approvals until it was discovered that the proposed larger pipeline would be used in part to export gas from the Everett terminal, instead of import.