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Great Data. I anecdotally recall 40s in September being much more common than it is now.

The WWS in Milton is delish! Thread related, the wind is picking up here. Still really nice out though.

Actually, the 12z suite (excluding EURO which hasn't run yet) are pretty consistent with the track. Every single model takes the storm into central nj within 36-48 hours.

Really? that's surprising. like I said, maybe First Sate Brewing...but Milton is always a fun place to visit. quirky little town. if you're in the mood for Mexican, can't recommend Tequila Real enough. fantastic food and right on Wagamons Pond. OK, this was genuinely funny, i chuckled. well done. Not a beer guy, but friends/colleagues that are tend to highly review Dewey Beer Co.

12Z models are all over the place with the exact tracks and timing and when and where the most intense part of the system is possibly going to make a left turn into the coast - many more questions than answers for any particular area of the region as of this afternoon. All that is certain is there is going to be flooding and high winds up and down the coast - rainfall amounts are the biggest question mark - along with the highest wind locations several miles inland especially.

RIP, he would have been all over this one. Can throw Messinger into that one, too.

I’m not a hype person, but looking at vis. sat, you can see the cold air eating away around SC/ NC

it is all cancelled

Respectfully disagree. This is a warm seclusion. There’s no latent heat release. Furthermore the storm dissipates as it becomes vertically stacked on Sunday night. It might have some tropical characteristics but it won’t behave like a tropical cyclone should.

No. This isn’t tropical or subtropical currently.

If not in real time it will happen in the post storm reanalysis

Lakehouse? Great restaurant

Zero mention by NHC, not even an yellow so I assume they disagree?

Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.

How many named naked swirls have we seen over the years? In the eyes of those who know better, should this count?

lol already got branches down in my neighborhood. Canceled a reservation for our 20th anniversary dinner in Bay Shore that was supposed to be at 8pm tomorrow because that area floods rather easily, forget in a storm like this. Lol it’s always friggin something ugh.

I wouldn’t wanna be flying in this wind i dont mind flying but hate turbulence lol

this next Wed - Sat looking increasingly WAR -like in the GFS's recent guidance... 00z, 06z and 12z runs GGEM's sort of coming around. Euro thinks ala carte mid November

You will see delays for sure. They are so busy that even a run of the mill storm causes delays

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.

Jesus. A hybrid storm taking the same path Sandy took. More rain, much smaller wind field.

Was gusting around forty here earlier, a friend of mine told me there was a wire down on wellwood ave in Lindenhurst already

mm/hr

This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline.