All Activity

Crush job for all of WNC on 18z Euro. Some mixing issues as you head SW, but showing mid teens at the surface. This is one powerful storm.

Ouch with the EURO. Inch and a half in the ATL area. Ooof.

If you like weenie ratios we’ve hit it already. Would be a nice storm.

Euro AI slunked south a tad at 18z. Still would be a good position for decent hit

We've lost almost 12 hours on it according to the Euro which only goes to make the forecast even further out in time

Not too mad at the Euro..looks like it'd def be over 6" if we made it past 144

Maps?

Not weather related...but worth noting that we are having one helluva solar storm right now. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Basically a repeat of 12z. Consistency and a big run which stops at 144.

Regardless of model, I have often found the "snow depth" field to better represent what you actually experience on the ground, with melting etc - almost like Kuchera+. But some like the GDPS don't use Kuchera for calculating snow depth (just 10:1). I'm not sure which models do/don't, or what site has snow depth derived with Kuchera.

Looks like it's been slowing down the past few runs?

If the Euro locks in over the next 2-3 runs along w/ the EPS....I think that is a very good thing. I have learned never to speak in absolutes in this hobby. Arrogance would be a pathway to egg on my face!

Storm definitely somehow got pushed back a day today. Which annoys me. We were gonna be in NAM range by tonight at one point!

Agreed, most of the forum would get 4-8” more after 144 it appears, looks solid to gain some lat after that frame.

Op...went boom? Sorry, only got the free pivotalweather

18z Euro very similar to 12z. Monster Snowstorm for Many and crippling ice further south

Ai has a 2nd event centered again in s va and MD eastern shore.

It also seems pretty much aligned to the Euro OP as well. Would think that from days 4-6 they combined would be a pretty good duo.

Missed my chance for aurora over snow

18z Euro

It isn't optimism. It is the 18z Euro. Boom.

At this stage, models don't handle tracks and synoptic details very skillfully. Thus, there remains latitude for either a suppressed solution or even a big hit into southern New England. The odds somewhat favor the former, but that doesn't mean that the New York City area can't see a moderate or significant snowfall while parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic have a major snowfall. The 18z GFS came northward. It showed > 6" at Raleigh. Since 1890, there were 44 storms that brought 6" or more snow to Raleigh. While 24 (55%) had no measurable snow in New York City, 12 (27%) had 4" or more and 8 (18%) had 6" or more. The most recent storm to bring 6" or more snow to both Raleigh and New York City was the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 2010. Interestingly, almost 20% of individual EPS members showed 6" or more now, which would be in line with the historic probabilities associated with significant snowfalls in Raleigh. Of course, as noted in the first paragraph, nothing is cast in stone. Historically, if the teleconnection forecast is reasonably accurate, the heaviest snows could favor Washington-Baltimore-Richmond, but it's still possible to get significant snows into New York City. By Thursday, the guidance will be handling the synoptic details with skill. By that time, we should have a much better idea of what to expect. For now, aside from the possibility of a snowstorm, the details cannot be pinned down with much accuracy. At least there's something on the proverbial radar.

We're right in the wheelhouse for the Euro AI and it's ensembles. If this look maintains for the next 24 hours, then it's probably game on. North of I-70 will somehow score double digits too. They always find a way.

The chart

As one who has The Lee Side Blues, this particular setup has my attention.