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  2. CAPE
    Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA. The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond- The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA.
  3. Freezing Drizzle
    A dusting possible from a weak shortwave passing through overnight 3 to 5 am. Carry on.
  4. GBOVolz
    I would not be surprised if out of Knoxville’s 10 biggest snowstorms, 3/4 of those had temperatures in the 60s or 70s within a week before the storm. I bet a lot of our biggest snows in or around Knoxville had a above average temperatures for the season .
  5. soadforecasterx
    I know its the icon but you can see the slow steps towards the Euro camp
  6. tavwtby
    wasn't that cold spell that the "freezer bowl" was played in, in Cincinnati? I remember that winter being really cold, but don't remember a lot of snow until April vacation from school when we got a good 12-18"...
  7. Heisy
    18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far
  8. paulythegun
    This site is now offering WeatherNext 2 for free. It's not totally functional yet (you can only get MSLP, 6 hour precip, and 2m temps) but still worth keeping an eye on: https://aguacerowx.com/app
  9. CAPE
    There is a bit of a signal on the AIFS ENS. Mostly north but still way out there obviously.
  10. JTA66
    Trying to remember the last time we had such prolonged snow cover. My best guess would be 2013-14.
  11. Rd9108
    https://x.com/i/status/2022373616709472738
  12. psuhoffman
    SREF trended north lol
  13. CAPE
    I thought it was 19. Either way its a hell of a streak. The open fields around me are thinning with some bare spots, but here in the woods still 90% or so with the sunny side out that back showing a few bare spots.
  14. weatherpruf
    because i have a gas station on the corner and can get fresh gas easy.....and i hate to leave gas laying around in cans for weeks on end. also have an electric toro that rips through snow easily; it did so in the last storm. so i'm good, though the tire on my big machine needs replacing. i don't know how the bitter cold affects gas sitting outside in cans, but it probably isn't good.
  15. IrishRob17
    If it's not too late, switch it to Irish Whiskey
  16. donsutherland1
    A very good discussion, IMO. It describes what appears to be a reasonable worst-case scenario, although it should be noted that 4 EPS members now show 6" or more. It touches on the lack of phasing, which is a consistent theme given the wide separation of energy and front-running northern piece.
  17. colonel717
    Is he saying winter is basically over after 28th with major heat wave likely after we get through phase 3 and possible snow from 20th - 28th?
  18. mitchnick
    Lol. Damn autocorrect. I've written snow so many times, it apparently just figures any word starting with the letter "s" is snow. Should have been stuff.
  19. NorthShoreWx
    Gift cards and scotch are in the mail for the three shadow mods.
  20. Interstate
    When was the last time we had 100% snow cover for 18 straight days?
  21. CPcantmeasuresnow
    You're talking about the year the Superbowl was in the Meadowlands? Starting game time temp was 48° and 8 hours later, while some were still returning home in the early am, the snow began and the city ended up with over 8 inches. If the snow started 6-8 hours earlier it would have been the most memorable Super bowl for weather of all time.
  22. Brian D
    My town, Two Harbors.
  23. eduggs
    The northern stream shortwave on the 18z NAM looks a little better positioned to bring precipitation north at 48 hours.
  24. EVLINC64
    The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 1h We are about to go into the wildest phase of the MJO you can have in Feb, phase 3. The Feb 5-13 1994 example of what phase 3 can do ( followed by the heat wave right after in 4/5/6) was the greatest case study this year NYC had 2 snowstorms with a total of 22 inches on the ground by the 12th, then was 62 8 days later! This year's target dates in comparison probably 20-28. That not to say 22 inches in NYC. Just to say a lot of wild weather west east centered in the lakes and northeast likely during that phase 3 time
  25. CPcantmeasuresnow
    Who knew. I never noticed it in all these years. Do we have to address you as Sir IrishRob17 now?
  26. eduggs
    ICON-EPS has about 58% chance of measurable at NYC and 12% 1" liquid. That's a relatively small spread between the extreme outcomes. AIFS-EPS has only 2% chance of 1" of liquid. That continues the theme of a likely miss but small chance of a big hit. Kind of unusual at this short lead time over the past 5 years.
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