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It also has that barbell low way out east, further east than 12z. Not sure what that ultimately means, extrapolated.

3 to 6 inches in the Ric would be significant in my book .. Especially for what is still on the ground in many places …

10:1 too.. so maybe a 5-8 or 5-9 special with good ratios.

The good think is the NAM at range is still the NAM at range.

People posting the cmc para on twitter… getting desperate out here lol

Someone in the eastern part of North Carolina or southeastern Virginia is going to get absolutely hammered here. .

Let’s do this! All kidding aside won’t take much to get some coastal flood issues going regardless of the snow. I believe Scituate has a few tides at 10.5 or so this weekend.

Rah said they’d probably be issuing a watch tomorrow in the video brief just now.

can we change the name of the thread to maybe it's coming

We have GRAF https://x.com/tkanost/status/2016614597550059921?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

I mean, I tend to agree, but was just playing it conservatively. it looks like the NAM is much more efficient at “catching” the energy rotating around the ULL and throwing it northward rather than letting it escape eastward Question is, is this a situation where the NAM’s resolution may allow it to better handle that smaller-scale stuff? Maybe What I do know for sure is that it being at the end of its run does it no favor for its accuracy scores lol

Its is pretty good with convection though.

JFC, are kids made of toilet paper these days. In mine and @mitchnickdays before they had electricity schools rarely closed. I remember having to slide on my ass to the bottom of my block to catch the school bus since my block was too icy for it to come on.

Absolutely. With that low pretty much guaranteed to bomb somewhere east of us, there is solid model agreement in a strong wind field over the Mid-Atlantic.

Don't forget non-severe t-storms

Would love just a bit more dig on the ULL there. Worry about downsloping across the smokies here with that trajectory.

I've definitely noticed. RIC usually misses north or south and east. RIC was in the jackpot 5 days out last storm and it trended north. Plus in this current setup it's really hard to get a north trend. It may go north a little but won't be anything significant. This has Southern VA/NC written all over it.

Things we do well here -hot/humid weather -sleet (apparently) -wind -losing sports teams (even Caps suck now) -sleet removal (D.C.)

Well, by golly NWS Newport/Morehead.

Yeah I think NAM would be close to a slay here. But, NAM

Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol

Trying to figure out it is bombs off the coast IMO. Again, waling the line with Lower (but great totals) down this way. Looks good to me. That min has been showing up though as stated down here.

Still snowing