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Yeah the last two winters weren’t great but they weren’t terrible either. They had a solid stretch of deep winter even if it didn’t last as long as we’d like. 2020 and 2023 were awful, similar to 2002 and 2012.

Some of us are already above average (29.7"). :>)

Parade day at the winter carnival with flurries in the air. Carnival ends tomorrow. Could be a very wintry week ahead if the models have a clue.

Sure but the days leading up to yesterday 4-5 days showed a sheared out mess to the south

Man…. So much beer in here. It’s almost like we’ve only had 1 noteworthy storm and endless supply of cold.

Solid day of 37-43 highs in CT today

I don’t have the stupid peacock package. Hate that I miss a single game to streaming. Bummer

58 Car therm in HGR today. Only made it to 45 just 15 min north of there near near Pen-Mar. Elevation dependent day.

Absolutely. The AI’s are constantly generating monster coastals

Not exactly there was a signal for Presidents’ Day off and on for weeks. At one point some models were showing 15-20” with temps in the lower 20s even if a blip south across Pa Md De and Nj

Agonizing crawling our way to average.

Could push 80s late week. My point click says 76 which is aggressive for RAH

These AI model versions all seem to turn everything in their mid and ext handling in coastal storms regardless I think sticking to overrunning with labored andor failing miller Bs is more likely. Unless indicators change, winter ends not to far after next weekend

Don’t mess with Miss Patty…

I know....agree.

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The NAM T minus 36 hour scare comes tonight. Like clockwork.

You moved to NE yet you just come here to shit up the threads. Boy we miss you. Please don’t come back.

Not overly surprising in a progressive flow.

It’s JB come On

But I don’t think our luck has changed. We always missed more than won with those. We need multiple things to come together and usually 1 or 2 factors F it up. And we say what if. But you can do that with everything. Look at 2010? What if that second Feb 9 storm doesn’t phase as fast. That’s a rare example when a phase capture on a miller b happened flawlessly. What if the Dec 2009 storm didn’t phase? The only storm that winter that was clean and simple was the Feb 5 one. We easily could have missed the other 2! Luck in cold patterns is what it is. We win some we lose some. We haven’t had a cold Nino in a long time so it’s hard to say we’re getting unlucky. We need to see what happens when we time up a -AO with a El Niño! If we manage not to snow then it’s uh oh! Where we are definitely losing now is marginal temp events. Even up here they are breaking warm more!

You’re welcome. It’s not just that though. As my example and examples that can be found on just about every run show, it literally has very heavy snow with these Gulf blobs when temperatures aren’t just a few degrees above 32 but rather as warm as ~40 degrees above 32! How can a major company let these Euro AIFS snow maps with this obvious major issue that’s as plain as day continue to be released before getting them fixed?

Looks a little interesting this evening with the ongoing severe risk and some more discrete clusters ongoing in S-SETX coastal region on the southern extent of the frontal convective line moving through ETX. Even outflow boundaries alone are producing strong gusts to 50+ mph in STX. Stronger support for lift aloft digging a bit further south in the state than usual (per Euro had projected all week) with the incoming SS trough. And this may also be an indication that ENSO has finally started its transition away from LN and hopefully toward the advertised warm/EN phase in the coming months. Which would likely make the upcoming severe season more interesting with the SS jet anchoring further south. Probably the bigger story today is rainfall amounts especially in NTX over 2" just in the past 24 hours with some flash flood alerts. Especially, considering we're currently in the driest month of the year. Very needed since over 90% of the entire state was already in some kind of ongoing drought status looking at U.S. drought monitor data on February 3rd.

So serious analysis. It’s close. Boundary temps are the only issue. Places NW of 95 in MD are at 34-35 during the height of the storm with .25-.35 qpf across guidance now. If the storm were to amp say 2mb deeper and that became .5 qpf it would be enough to flip to a 1-3” snow. 4mb and .75 qpf and its a 3-5” wet snow! It’s that close. The track is perfect. But our temps are torched at the surface so we need a stronger storm to max dynamic cooling 2 degrees more than current progs. How likely is this? 10-20%. Getting that amount of error isn’t unlikely but unfortunately it’s more likely to be in the other direction. Models have a slight over amp bias and a +qpf bias. So we’re rooting for a bust that goes the opposite way or typical errors! Not impossible. There have been examples. It’s not totally dead. But it’s on life support and we need some world class surgeon to swoop in and perform a miracle surgery.