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I think we could easily go through the rest of August with <5 ACE points. Zero additional ACE points certainly in play.

Love it… “Today is one of those chamber of commerce type days…”

Sept 1997 looks cooler than avg but nothing crazy.

Some of you may remember I used a program called WXSIM to build my own "in my backyard" forecast. Well with AI and my own detailed weather station climate history at this location since 2004. I have developed a new hyper local backyard forecast. Below is the high level background on how it was built. I will also track this AI forecast vs. my NWS Point and Click forecast to see how accurate or not it actually turns out to be. How the East Nantmeal Backyard Forecast Is Built A ten-day forecast for one hilltop in northern Chester County, trained on that hilltop’s own twenty-two year record — and measured against the National Weather Service’s own guidance on days it had never seen. 40.10968°N, 75.73363°W · 677.7 ft USGS 3DEP Davis Vantage Pro 2, fan-aspirated, in service since 2004 CoCoRaHS · NWS Skywarn CHPA-174 The short version Five weather models are pulled for this exact coordinate — the European ECMWF, NOAA’s GFS, the German DWD ICON, the Canadian GEM, and the National Weather Service’s own National Blend of Models. Each one is corrected using its own track record at this East Nantmeal site — how wrong it has been here, in this month, at this hour of the day, at this many days out. The corrected forecasts are then combined, weighted by how much each has earned. Finally the whole trace is nudged toward what the station is reading right now, by an amount that decays as the present stops mattering. Nothing in it is a physical simulation. It does not model soil moisture or cold-air drainage from first principles. It measures what those things have actually done to this thermometer, over years, and applies that. The site Everything rests on one sensor. A Davis Vantage Pro 2 with a solar fan-aspirated shield, five feet above ground over grass, in service since 2004. The anemometer is roof-mounted, and reads well below open exposure because hills rise in every direction. Corroboration: the station behaves like its elevation and is accurate A forecast trained on one sensor invites an obvious question — is that sensor telling a coherent story, or just producing numbers? One way to test it is to compare against a research-grade station nearby and ask whether the difference between them looks like physics. Avondale 2N is a U.S. Climate Reference Network site about nineteen miles south, at 409 ft — 268 ft below East Nantmeal. USCRN stations use triple-redundant sensors and are built for exactly this kind of reference use. The two records overlap for 7,139 days, from January 2007 to August 2026. East Nantmeal minus Avondale 2N, 7,139 overlapping days, 268.5 ft apart. The two stations track each other almost perfectly day to day — r = 0.996 on highs and 0.988 on lows across nearly twenty years. And the offset between them is exactly the shape elevation predicts: the higher site runs cooler by day and warmer by night, giving East Nantmeal the narrower diurnal range. Cool days come from elevation; mild nights come from cold air draining off a hilltop into the valleys instead of pooling on it. Expressed as a lapse rate, that is −5.08 °F per 1,000 ft on highs and +5.23 on lows. Earlier work in this archive, using an entirely different station pair — Phoenixville 1E, some 550 ft lower — and a different era, arrived at −5.23 and +4.85. Two independent comparisons landing within a few tenths of each other! I will post the latest forecast below. Let me know if any questions or suggestions. Thanks!

Some of you may remember I used a program called WXSIM to build my own "in my backyard" forecast. Well with AI and my own detailed weather station climate history at this location since 2004. I have developed a new hyper local backyard forecast. Below is the high level background on how it was built. I will also track this AI forecast vs. my NWS Point and Click forecast to see how accurate or not it actually turns out to be. How the East Nantmeal Backyard Forecast Is Built A ten-day forecast for one hilltop in northern Chester County, trained on that hilltop’s own twenty-two year record — and measured against the National Weather Service’s own guidance on days it had never seen. 40.10968°N, 75.73363°W · 677.7 ft USGS 3DEP Davis Vantage Pro 2, fan-aspirated, in service since 2004 CoCoRaHS · NWS Skywarn CHPA-174 The short version Five weather models are pulled for this exact coordinate — the European ECMWF, NOAA’s GFS, the German DWD ICON, the Canadian GEM, and the National Weather Service’s own National Blend of Models. Each one is corrected using its own track record at this East Nantmeal site — how wrong it has been here, in this month, at this hour of the day, at this many days out. The corrected forecasts are then combined, weighted by how much each has earned. Finally the whole trace is nudged toward what the station is reading right now, by an amount that decays as the present stops mattering. Nothing in it is a physical simulation. It does not model soil moisture or cold-air drainage from first principles. It measures what those things have actually done to this thermometer, over years, and applies that. The site Everything rests on one sensor. A Davis Vantage Pro 2 with a solar fan-aspirated shield, five feet above ground over grass, in service since 2004. The anemometer is roof-mounted, and reads well below open exposure because hills rise in every direction. Corroboration: the station behaves like its elevation and is accurate A forecast trained on one sensor invites an obvious question — is that sensor telling a coherent story, or just producing numbers? One way to test it is to compare against a research-grade station nearby and ask whether the difference between them looks like physics. Avondale 2N is a U.S. Climate Reference Network site about nineteen miles south, at 409 ft — 268 ft below East Nantmeal. USCRN stations use triple-redundant sensors and are built for exactly this kind of reference use. The two records overlap for 7,139 days, from January 2007 to August 2026. East Nantmeal minus Avondale 2N, 7,139 overlapping days, 268.5 ft apart. The two stations track each other almost perfectly day to day — r = 0.996 on highs and 0.988 on lows across nearly twenty years. And the offset between them is exactly the shape elevation predicts: the higher site runs cooler by day and warmer by night, giving East Nantmeal the narrower diurnal range. Cool days come from elevation; mild nights come from cold air draining off a hilltop into the valleys instead of pooling on it. Expressed as a lapse rate, that is −5.08 °F per 1,000 ft on highs and +5.23 on lows. Earlier work in this archive, using an entirely different station pair — Phoenixville 1E, some 550 ft lower — and a different era, arrived at −5.23 and +4.85. Two independent comparisons landing within a few tenths of each other! I will post the latest forecast below. Let me know if any questions or suggestions. Thanks!

Finished with 0.24” which brings MTD to 1.36”

68/64, misery mist just started, right after I finished washing the truck

1.9 total and now mostly sunny - wasn't expecting that today. A tropical feeling 74/70

Nothing says summer like 66° and misery mist. Torch lolz...

Getting another line of showers after some peaks of sun. This should be it until the front moves through later.

I’m not sure, but I’ve always thought that el ninos have more influence on summers the following year after +enso develops. Could be wrong though

Screen_Recording_20260822_130422_YouTube.mp4

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

Lots of sun this afternoon

Same pattern as June and July: Very warm first half of the month, only to be offset by a cooler second half of the month. I wonder if this continues, and things turn warmer to begin September.

Some of y'all will likely see 40's and that's amazing. Fire up the stoves.

Frederick might be the new 270 split precip magnet.

^12Z UKMET has TCG 30 hours later than last run and 54 hours later than the 2 runs prior to the last one. This run has only a TD moving WNW at 27 mph before then dissipating: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.7N 38.8W 12Z UKMET: LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.7N 38.8W 1010 28 0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 13.5N 43.3W 1011 27 1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 14.1N 48.2W 1011 30 0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

1.04", 4.42" month

Definitely hasn't made them a contending team. But I think they'd be double digits under .500 at this point with out him. He's put the offense on his back the entire month of August. I keep waiting for an announcement for a Rodgers extension. I kind of thought maybe something was in the works when they didn't trade him at the deadline.