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I hate to even be abhorrent to the idea of a retrogression but this is not the first time models have shown a Scandi like ridging pattern and no actual retrogression took place. I do hope that it comes to fruition but I think the Nina background state is still causing issues overall. The flow is just too damn fast even with the -WPO in the tank.

The PNA dipping and trough persisting is more or less a tautology. If the models end up spitting out a new solution w/o trough by definition the PNA will not dip further negative.

Ill ask my work colleague as I am also interested if there is something out there. I don't see why there wouldn't be. I start vacation this weekend into the new year so I'll have free time to finally catch up on things online (thankfully). I know I keep saying this but I will set up the thread this weekend to chat about RONI. Im still surprised so many folks are caught off guard by this warm up and the potential of it being an extensive one at that, I wouldn't go as far as to say we are 'torching' but some areas especially in the southern plains and even lower midwest could hit record territory. Been beating this warm drum since about the beginning of the month. Even with the prospects of a deep -NAO coming up this does not cause any bit of a cooldown for much of the east after christmas into the new year, as should be expected. I would not be surprised to see temps get to average if not slightly below average a few times during the week before the end of the year but overall much of the cold that has been across the eastern 1/3rd of the country should take a solid beating on the monthly scale. The cold is locked in Alaska and NW Canada I do expect as we get into the new year and especially after the first week for us to push a more normal state temp wise and eventually that cold should dislodge and make a run into the CONUS. We should know the models have a hard time grasping these types of pattern evolving (the potential retrogression) just like they tend to rush a -NAO out much quicker than reality suggests.

After much above normal temps across most the USA next week - we get back into a more normal winter pattern as blocking over Greenland has more influence later next week and beyond - individual storms yet to be determined.........

Latest modeling showing possibly 15 PLUS inches of pure water smashing down on the north Sierra. That would be catastrophic flooding and/or truly epic, Brobdingnagian amounts of snow.

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250?

It’s definitely not as good down his way. Rain on the 23rd while everyone else is snowing would objectively suck. Still time for this one though so nothing is locked.

https://insightspsychology.org/the-dark-side-of-toxic-positivity/ Examples of Toxic Positivity: Telling someone who is grieving, “Everything happens for a reason.” Advising a friend going through a tough time to “look on the bright side.” Posting on social media with hashtags like #NoNegativity or #StayPositive in the context of serious challenges. Shaming someone for expressing sadness, fear, or anger by saying, “You’re bringing down the vibe.” While these phrases are often well-intentioned, they can invalidate the recipient’s feelings and prevent meaningful emotional processing.

I've never seen one, anyplace, ever. Anyone else?

Cousin at 2400 feet in an exposed area said that at 10:50 they recorded a gust at 75mph then the aneometer broke off. Had some reports of roofs blown off. Huge trees are down too. Wide spread power outages.

Dude .. you are broken. You've now joined the ranks of Torch Tiger and Qshmegma

Drove to Iowa City this morning. It was ugly

Euro was showing something to. Way to far away to get excited about, we track

I’ve been building a backyard terrain park for the past 6-7 winters and have a backyard snowmaking setup with two snow guns. I cover about 1/3 acre with a 24” base or so and then build a 10-12’ tall drop in and some big jumps. Have a couple box rails and some jibs and ramps. I usually start in October and then just fight it out with rain and warmups like the past few days trying to keep my base and then I start rebuilding, usually call it a season around March 1. My kids of course love it and it’s a family tradition but also all the neighborhood kids. Not a whole lot of kids learning to ski these days but that is absolutely not the case on my block. Every kid has skis or a snowboard so they can jam in the park all winter. Very proud of my little micro contribution of the next batch of winter lovers.

pretty much everything sucks on that sounding

yeah they were looking rough the past couple of games.

My colleague Mark was still in town for work yesterday and my older son had the day off, so the three of us headed out for another tour on the Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry Network. Mark was looking for a tour that would have an ascent in the backcountry potentially followed by some rolling backcountry terrain, finishing off with a descent on some groomed alpine terrain where he could work on his Telemark turns. When he described what he was looking for, I had just the route he needed. We ascended via the Bryant Trail to the Bryant Cabin, then traversed back toward the alpine trails on the rolling terrain of North Slope and finished off with a final descent down Lower Turnpike. Temperatures had crept up into the 30s F in the valleys, so I was unsure what was going on up at the resort, but temperatures dropped as we ascended to the Village. The temperatures were below freezing at Village level, so all the snow was still in midwinter form. My younger son had been out for some lift-served skiing in the morning, and he felt the off piste snow had settled somewhat, so I was surprised to find that the powder was just as fluffy as usual out in the backcountry. We didn’t ski a ton of untracked powder on the backcountry route we took, since it had a lot of rolling terrain without many big descents, but the powder that we did hit was excellent. Just as impressive as the powder off piste was the quality of the turns we found during our final descent on Lower Turnpike. I hadn’t been there in quite a while, but I’d say it had the highest quality packed snow I’ve seen during this recent stretch. Even with lift-served traffic on Wilderness, we couldn’t find a touch of firm snow on Lower Turnpike, so it wound up being a highlight of the trip and a fantastic surface for Mark to use for practicing his Telemark turns.

Umm hmm ?? Kind of out there in a tight window we shall see?

Cutting across the region or even north of here isn’t going to get it done. Id feel good in NNE

There's a digital snow thread.

I can see the snowstorm on the gfs near the 30th come north with a better phase.

Nice snowstorm on the 30th for the area on the gfs.

0z GFS is pretty nice

ENSO thread is fine lol