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I'm pulling for you guys to my south. Best of luck to all of you.

Concur- Had people ice skating down our streets...laid awake listening to branches breaking and thumping down. No repeats needed. Driving was impossible.

liking this!

Ah. Sure did. What is interesting about that is that means the model will likely have to correct downstream as it approaches. It is a decent sign modeling is behind the curve after about 36 hours or so.

I'm thinking the last decade skewed everyone.

6.47 miles, give or take a few feet. More seriously, I always take "N&W" to mean changes start at the fall line, with snow amounts, ratios, whatever getting better as you go further N&W from there.

My O' my how the mood has changed in here after one run...

I KNOW a lot of that west of 85 will be sleet. For triangle folks, this to me would mean at least 0.5” and up to 0.75” of accrual if it was light instead of heavy. As in, December 2002 redux

We're still a few days out so I'm sure models will wobble a bit still

Eps fwiw at this point. Pretty consistent if nothing else.

From what can see on the forecast models, the secondary low being even 20 miles further south and east would likely eliminate any mixing issues from the NYC/LI/CT area. The cold air at the surface will definitely be very stubborn to get out.

Agreed. Even if we mix with/change to sleet, the WAA is going to come in like a banshee, and EVERYTHING is going to stick immediately given how cold it is preceding the storm

EPS did shift NW slightly overall, but there is some good under the hood. The 10 and 25% snowfall actually shifted southeast...the 10% snowfall is now 6" in DC, up from about 4.5" This would seem to indicate a floor of about 6". There are less disaster members with under 6". The 50% did drop from 11 to 9" and the 75% dropped from 14" to 11" so we are losing the upside potential as the jack zone is shifting further and further northwest the last several runs.

People are going to die from this storm, its not great.

You're just upset because this will put a dent in the drought

The crust on top of the snow is going to be amazing by the time Tuesday rolls around. Let's reel the following weekend's storm in and get snow-on-snow.

it feels like its getting harder and harder to. Base state changing and all that. But thats a different topic. I mean if it wasn't for us getting vodka cold 24 hr prior to this storm we'd be looking at rain for you and me.

Seems like every storm we track is complicated anymore!

This is shaping up to be a classic storm. For those that have been here a while you know your own climo. If past major storms flipped to sleet it’s going to happen again. If you’re N&W of the metros you’ll flip toward the end - maybe. I think climo situational awareness is just as important as model runs. .

I think it’s the way it has unfolded. We haven’t been hit with a big one in a decade. Many in the Baltimore area havent even had a warning criteria in that time. This looks big. The models, especially the best ones, had the center of the state as ground zero for big totals for a few days. Now the rug is being pulled. Had models initially showed a few inches and then beefed up to 6-10 topped with sleet, I think people would be pumped. Maybe we get a trend in our favor. If not, hopefully we finally get clobbered next weekend. This is hopefully just the start of our chances, but you never want to waste your chances, either. You always think there are more, then sometimes later find out there is not.

Sierras too wet...high ratios uncommon ("Sierra cement"). I've been to Blue Mountain (skiing) Hawk Mountain (Walking/watching) and Blue Mountain Winery (quaffing) so I may have your location triangulated. Very pretty up there.

Hopefully this should help quell some of the inexplicable moping about likely snow vs. mix amounts. Also, the trends in the past 12 hours have largely been stable -- a little colder, a little warmer, some small changes to total QPF. I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I just don't see anything right now that would suggest further dramatic changes.

Honestly we will likely be talking about sleet to Scranton by 0z Saturday

Yeah, last year's events were near perfect.