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shame about the nice day falling on a monday but i'll take the garden variety evening skies later

If it’s going to rain 2-3”, I hope it’s just a nice steady rain. I had a thunderstorm roll through a couple weeks back and the grounds just so hard it wants to puddle and make an absolute mess. Let’s have it soak in nice and slow

Not as common in that part of the world, but I put out several of them in my time in Midland. Usually a high desert type deal or Southwest US during monsoon. Been so dry in those parts and high winds carry the dirt and dust off the plains. Quite a setup to get that up there.

This keeps happening, esp for eastern areas. Pretty soon rain chances will become dependent on convection, which is always hit and miss.

been there done that, it's a new thing now, also pesticide laden af big ag has completely obliterated midwestern top soil

Blowing dust? BLOWING DUST ADVISORY NWS CHICAGO IL 259 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026 ILZ019>021-023-032-033-039-107-108-INZ001-002-010-011-019-042300- /O.NEW.KLOT.DU.Y.0001.260504T1600Z-260504T2300Z/ 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026 La Salle IL-Kendall IL-Grundy IL-Kankakee IL-Livingston IL-Iroquois IL-Ford IL-Southern Will IL-Eastern Will IL-Lake IN-Porter IN-Newton IN-Jasper IN-Benton IN- ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Visibility as low as a quarter mile in blowing dust, particularly in open agricultural areas. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, and northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. * WHEN...From 11 AM CDT this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility could vary rapidly over short distances, slow down and exercise caution driving in open areas this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'.

Yes we have had some hot days this spring... but I feel like me have more below average than above average days.

This is a new one for me

My leaning of the weekly relative 3.4 going up from +0.2 in last week’s release to +0.4 in today’s turned out to be what happened for its 4th rise in a row. Nino 1+2 cooled again (by 0.2) to +0.7. Nino 3, like Nino 3.4, rose for the 4th week in a row to +0.5. Nino 4 was unchanged at +0.5. So far, it’s not behaving as if it is headed to strongly E based this autumn. Cansips has been suggesting central to W based with E (1+2 to 3) not as warm as C to W (3.4 to 4), but we’ll see as there’s a long way to go: Date (avg for wk centered on)………………....1+2………..3………..3.4………..4 01APR2026 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 08APR2026 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 22APR2026 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 29APR2026 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 ——————- The latest SSTa charts suggest a pause, which is long overdue, MAY finally be occurring temporarily:

The operational models, all of them ... are lagging behind the mid month warm signal that both the numerical indices, and the extended range ensemble synoptics ( all three) suggest. They are flipping the script after ~ 12th to 15th in there. The operational versions are oblivious. Reloading a winter mocking pattern foot. They're stuck. It's gotta end at some point... So I guess we'll see.

34 degrees which is getting pretty close to freezing. NWS is saying a chance of freezing the end of the week. Edit: My next bitch…we can’t have a nice day without wind.

Even this week feels like a step up. Freeze threats and highs in the 40s are waning…although the 6z GFS tries to shit on Saturday again.

If I copied the forecast from 5 Saturday’s ago, it would still be applicable to this coming Saturday. WTF.

Yeah going to be a stout cold front again this week after some great beneficial rainfall.

Just seeing this. I hope she makes a speedy recovery. That’s scary stuff.

Pretty impressive to see the upper ocean heat anomalies this week higher than at any point during the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events.

Backloaded season for them. The West is one of those places that needs a great snowpack for water supplies and the ski industry. They are way down in both of those areas. Hopefully, the developing very strong El Niño can deliver for them with better snow in the West next winter. Monthly Total Snowfall for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.6 6.6 T 10.5 3.4 M 20.7 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 23.3 1.4 13.3 5.5 2.0 2.2 0.0 47.7 2023-2024 0.0 7.5 2.9 1.4 3.6 13.7 9.2 6.3 T 44.6 2022-2023 0.0 T 10.9 13.0 13.0 4.7 5.1 2.2 T 48.9 2021-2022 0.0 T T 4.8 13.4 15.8 13.1 T 2.3 49.4 2020-2021 1.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 3.1 13.5 34.0 12.6 T 80.2 2019-2020 0.0 12.5 13.7 2.8 0.9 16.5 7.5 3.7 0.0 57.6 https://www.denverwater.org/tap/denver-water-snowpack-and-water-supply-update Denver Water’s collection and service areas continue to face severe drought conditions, with historically low snowpack. Denver Water depends on mountain snowpack for its water supply, which serves 1.5 million people in Denver and surrounding suburbs. As a result, on March 25, 2026, the Denver Board of Water Commissioners declared a Stage 1 drought, seeking a 20% reduction in water use to preserve water levels and avoid even stricter mandatory restrictions later this summer. On April 8, 2026, the board approved the implementation of temporary drought pricing, starting with May water use and reflected in June bills, to signal the premium value of water during droughts and help incentivize customers to save water. Customers are urged not to turn on automatic sprinkler systems until at least mid- to late-May, or later if possible. It is not necessary to water grass two days per week in April and the beginning of May; keeping automatic systems off will help save water. Occasional hand-watering may be necessary for trees and shrubs during this time. Keep an eye on the weather and let Mother Nature do the watering when she delivers spring rains. Snowpack and water supply update In Denver Water’s collection system, snowpack as of April 27, 2026, remained at the lowest levels observed in the past 40 years: Colorado River Basin: 18% of normal, worst on record. South Platte River Basin: 2% of normal, second-worst on record. Snowpack and melting conditions are unprecedented, with accelerated melting seen since mid-March. Customers need to save water to protect the supply we have right now. Streamflow forecasts are calling for runoff levels to be 10-40% of normal in 2026. Reservoir storage conditions are below average; while in reasonably good shape for the time being, far less snowpack is available to help refill them. As of April 27, 2026, reservoirs were 79% full, versus an average of 85% full for this time.

Had a trace of some sort of frozen precipitation on May 2 here for about 5-10 mins. Enough to lay momentarily on some surfaces.

My in-laws yesterday: “this has been one of the coldest springs!” Me: “actually it’s been one of the warmest springs so far, but yes, the last week has been cool.” Them: “I can’t remember wearing a sweater so much in spring though!” Me: “…” Frogs in the slowly heating pot…

Yeah looks warmer after mid month

Low of 37 this morning, which is lower than my 40 yesterday when there was the Frost Advisory.

my guy maxim woke up and chose violence back half of the month showing some promise, need that 540 line up around the hudson bay where it belongs

Made it to 37 this morning so far which is again below guidance. I suspect patchy frost is in the area, but cannot confirm that yet. The GFS and RGEM are the only models which are getting close to projected night time lows. The GFS has Friday morning as 34-35 for temps. No other model has it. Good test coming up again.

Will plant garden/ veggies this coming weekend. Mid month on looking torchier.