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Who used to do our pbp back when it used to snow, like 2009-10, 2013-16 years? JFC

has to be ai because regular is supressed

At 120, the 12z GFS is south of its 6z run. Honestly, that is probably about where we want that model at this range. As a good friend noted, those over-running events tend to trend north. I agree.

It's gonna miss the phase

GFS gets snow up into the region hr 126...

Was able to get to 12F with the fresh snowpack. .

Great question. I haven’t investigated Euro AI ensemble precip/temp maps closely, but a “quick and dirty” check doesn’t reveal to me any obvious algo issues with those. So, my focus on these posts remains fully with the snow maps.

imma let you do this, lol. I can't relax and stop toggling. I'll just come in for the F words

Ai or regular?

Nothing too exciting, but this is 120hr 6hr precip from Icon Ensembles. Rest of the run comes out later.

The start is less than 5 days away which is kind of crazy

We need the 12z GFS to get a lil' bit of AIFS in its veins.

We are SO CLOSE. Regardless of what happens this run has been a major improvement over 6z

Very likely terrain enhancement in that area. Winds out of the NE would support that theory.

Since we should have CAD this go around too, when is the last time it hasn’t trended stronger/colder the closer we get? Seems like as long as the HP is there the CAD verifies deeper and colder than modeled and saves a lot of us in that region from significant ZR.

Agreed. 12z is congrats to this sub and even part of the SE. Steady as she goes.

Yep cold smoke. Especially for the NW crew. Might not get the max precip stripe. But we get the powder.

Maybe I shouldn’t say this but in a side Twitter group chat Tomer Berg just called this a mix of Jonas (2016) and Feb 2010.

Perhaps the precip shield, but I'd be comfortable locking in this cold. I mean most models have almost a week of single-digit lows; you could have models swing +15 degrees and it would still wouldn't even be "marginal" yet.

Regardless of what happens (and we still could get skunked), this is an improved run

Very suppressed solution incoming by the 12z GFS at 111...stepped away from the 6z AIFS. No idea if right, but that would be a massive shift to get that solution to cut. Heck, I just want it to come back north on that run. Haha.

Thank you for asking him about that.

Suppression is my concern with this storm. Thats some cold air coming in. Still plenty of time for changes

I saw. Using it for my lows as my station dies every night bc I think the battery for solar isn’t holding a charge (again). Gonna get a new one soon methinks