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That would be great if this were a 36 hour forecast. I'm just sensitive to any negative trends because this could disappear quickly if any piece doesn't align. The AIs and ensembles still aren't fully on board.

In anyone's backyard. The snowfall map does not take into consideration mid-level thermals at all locations. As depicted, some of that "snow" will be ice/freezing rain.

Can I hide here with the normal people without wild mood swings

That has already begun trust me.

Almost time for folks to extrapolate the NAM

NBM with an increase

In your backyard?

Yeah obviously this isn't nailed down. Just another look.

it's a great run, everything else is noise

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Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches of snow in NW PA. Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area. Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus. I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range.

12z Euro toral QPF

What was 0Z and 6z euro? I thought it barely showed snow past the mason dixon.

12z updated

If we go back, even 2 years ago before the AI models started....We would be quite happy with today's results so far, assuming the EPS continues to improve. Impressive, Icon/CMC/UK/Euro all have heavy, accumulating snow with temperatures in the single digits, definitely has the PDII vibes

I wonder if the rates might be underdone by 10:1 ratios if we get a deep DGZ with moisture. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if we get some supper fluffy snow at some points which piles up nice and quick.

The total snowfall map that BRICK posted. That will NOT be all snow.

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access pull the Euro-AI Ensemble snow total plumes for Huntsville?

The euro AI was a little colder and farther south. It definitely gets warmer between 700-and 850 on both euro models

Hurricane hunters dropsondes planned:

I’m certainly not knowledgeable enough to argue with him on that but most others Mets are saying that a slower ejection increases the risk of phasing, and gives the TPV lobe and HP more time to start retreating, opening the door for more north trends. I guess a slower ejection can be good but only if the northern stream wave doesn’t also slow down and dig more west to phase?

Right now, I'm thinking 6-8” of combined snow/ice for my location. That will likely adjust in short time.

We get over a foot.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy