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Euro deluge

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

We don’t look at the GFS, but it’s a damn good hit. AI twin is west too.

0.80" here. Not bad. Good drink for the vegetable garden.

OK, I'll send it Tuesday. What's the postage like for 2" of rain? Got 0.36" with tonight's surprise storm. I'll take it, though Centennial Airport (measuring station 4 miles south) got 1.01".

I'll trade you 2" of rain for a low dew point. I've got extra. I just want a dew point of like 30 or something, really.

.19" on the day here....so spitting.

The Phoon headed towrads SE Janpan is doing nothing,its warning the Yellow Sea and even Sea of Japan SSTS,general speaking there really dont seem like there is break down of the PDO any where soon,these waters shouldnt be warm but cold in a +PDO

Yes, you can clearly see the outflow plume on the N side getting squashed by nrly shear. It is moving steadily S now as well. S movement outside an eye wobble loop usually means not good times ahead as it takes quite strong flow to push a TC bodily S. Most of the time, the LLCC gets exposed in short order. An exception I can think of was Joaquin Oct 2015, but that was much farther S (22-23N) and over the Gulf Stream. Solid, strong banding on the E side of Fay now, but the W side convection is waning.

Yes. Gonna be close. Window has begun to close. If I was to wager I would say Fay does not make it to Hurricane status. Unless there is a Special Update (doubtful) between now and 5am I don’t think it makes it. I highly doubt it would be upgraded at 5am. We’ll see soon enough.

And there full LEAVES on the TREES! One thing @CoastalWxneeds to account for here for the winds.

Wow..

Looks like NHC keeps this just below hurricane status

Put mine up last week.

One thing about lows that hook or loop back to the NW, it jacks up the winds more as it pushes against the high to NW. One reason why the Oct 2021 event was NUTZ for WINDZZZZZZZZZZ!

Same!

Shades of '11 Definitely will be that kind of a week with the cutoff low impacting the area a good part of this week as the Omega Block forms by the end of the week according to DT. Fall begins Tuesday night, and it will certainly feel like it!