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Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.

I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting!

In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.

Meh, wagons East with the precip. HRRR was more correct

I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.

June 2023 forecast looked pretty different.

Yeesh. Almost every neighbor on our street is having some sort of party today. If these hold..

Was this in any forecast?

There are much better options now than when I got diagnosed, so hopefully they give you some good options, every case seems to be different and you'll learn to know what works and what doesn't. Take care and good luck!

Same. Never seen it so bad this early. August sure, but not June

I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO . Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

I think 95% of us MidAtl/Northeastern would take that all day--sold! Lol

Nice day at the lake beach today in Saratoga. Cleared out about an hour or two ago. Almost time to go to treehouse brewing and grab a beer

it has but some act like its been 90 plus for weeks with high dews.. it really hasn't been that bad other that one crappy week

another great week coming up!! This Afternoon A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Sunday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 3pm and 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 76. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Sunday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 53. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then showers likely. Low around 55. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday A chance of showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 81. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Thursday A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78.

I think ORH only averages something like 3 90+ per year? it has been warm. Not debatable

Yea, I know it's biased towards stock ENSO, but it makes sense to an extent if the warm pool does slosh east somewhat.

We had more MC influence in 2023 for an east-based pattern despite Modoki like SSTs, but I wonder if we don't end with more Modoki pattern this season despite SSTs looking east-based due to the warm pool being tugged eastward a bit.

I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though.

Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki.

Worcester hasn't hit 90 yet this month?

It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered) Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.

^Finally getting that El Nino below average temps around the Great Lakes

Not enough attention is being paid to the spreading cold blob in the North Atlantic. What it means for us, I don't know. But fear not, I have my eye on it.