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Some get *far* to impressed w/ large MCS areas w/ very cold cold tops for nascent TCs. Yes it is intense convection, but that does not correlate well when it blows up very fast b/c that often mean it will dissipate just as fast. And the collapsing convection hinders organization at low-levels, .It can also happen when a system of mdt TS status. You get this immense area of very cold cloud tops, sometimes below -100 C, in a rather symmetric blob, calked a CCC, but there is no banding. When this happens, the TC often is stunted in intensification until the CCC feature goes away. If Edouard has a blow up of convection overnight, watch closely, Does it form in a coherent band as we are seeing on the N side now, or is is just random blobs (zits!) expanding radially? Also, you can have a combo of this. Banding now on the N side is good, but nothing on the S side, This implies dry air wrapping in. Also, the banding on the N side may be due to frictional convergence from the LA coast. Still, that can increase max winds b/c the stronger convection mixed down higher winds aloft better and the band is pushing against weak high pressure to the NE

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.1 1.8 1.4 4.2 2.1 1.5 2.3 1.5 .6

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Satellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the center of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed was therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. Since that time, there has been a pause in the organization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the northern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system this evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to around 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this afternoon's mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two. The flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the pressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Edouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern Gulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment tonight and Tuesday morning. As a result, nearly all of the dynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its approach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening occuring in the final hours before landfall. Given that the system is small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems likely Tuesday morning. The NHC forecast calls for intensification during the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result in Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the coast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast with this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is expected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard's peak intensity in the forecast points below. Edouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the next couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern Texas Tuesday night. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous track. Key Messages: 1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to Cameron. 2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coast within the warning area. 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 28.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 29.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 30.1N 94.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tarp is coming off!

Sorry for the multiple posts. Is there someway to post more images in 9ne post?? So annoying

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As hurting as the convection is, at least it is nicely circularly-banded and looks more like a classic TC. Did not have that at all w/ Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, or Dolly. Shear was the big issue for those. Edouard's issue is dry air, but you can do a bit better overall for max TC intensity when only dry air is an issue I have noticed empirically.

2026 in a nutshell? Yeah. I'm not flying down.

Yes, NW flow events are *notorious* in New England for its biggest tor events and outbreaks. Historically, it is a little less defined in the Mid-Atlantic b/c it does well in SW flow (College Park, Sep 2001) and TC events (remains of Ivan in Sep 2004), but you have June 23, 1944 (WV hit hard) and June 2, 1998 (Frostburg MD F4). https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_19980602 https://www.tornadotalk.com/june-2-1998-tornado-outbreak/ And, of course, the derecho on June 29, 2012. I think an EML present is important for high-end derechos.

Satellite imagery looks horrible. Radar at least shows some banding on the northern side but overall the southern side looks devoid of much right now.

I’m not convinced. 2017-2018 were wet summers if I recall, but it’s been consistently humid for for at least a month and a half straight (I got back from Vegas in early July). Dews in the 70s on the regular.

MRX released a graphic about August severe events in the area. They were centered on SWVA it seemed like, but the number lined up almost exactly with the 2006 El Nino August. Both were in the 70s for severe reports, with 2006 I think at 79 and this year 75. That was well above average and the 75 was 3rd most August severe events in the last 20 years. The winter of 2006/07 was near normal in December, decently AN in Jan, and fairly BN in February. It was relatively low on snow amounts, but here on the northern Plateau we got a few snow events in February.

Friction helping that core organize a lot in last few scans. Think it comes in east of NHC forecast though.

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again. It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

Yep both have been consistent

I have only lived in the DC area for 8 years, and I am still trying to get an overall feel for local nuances when it comes to tstms, esp. when the "DC split" occurs. That seems more than just a random coincidence. And it is apparent the corridor from about 30 mi W of BWI to the city is a favorable area, so is just E of I95 to the Delmarva, and it seems really apparent CHO-RIC-ORF area in terms of a "hot spot!" Also, w-cntrl and swrn VA get some really nicely-structured supercells at times!

wind gust up to 39kt near Edouard's east side

Agreed, think we see 50-55 knots at LF. Would take some pretty good intensification for anything over 65 knots so I doubt it. but wouldn't completely discount it given how small it is.

Dry air definitely still looks to be an issue, and that was a clear limiting factor even when this was a lemon. I agree that there's no one size fits all for TCs, which is why the Twitter conversation sometimes gets frustrating because cold top convection does not automatically equal RI. You can see the dry air on the northern flank clearly, and it seems clear that it's having an impact, though I think the expanding outflow on the northern side of Edouard does limit it some. I've always been of the opinion that you need organization before substantial intensification so that's what I look for. Today we've seen substantial progress in that department. We went from a weak and elongated low this morning To a much tighter wind field, with a meaningful pressure drop this evening on the first recon pass of the evening. I still think an overnight/morning convective burst aided by diurnal maximum given the developing inner core should allow for modest intensification, with an added boost from frictional convergence. Like someone else said earlier, I think this is one of those short fuse homebrew cases where we do say if this had more time it could have intensified more substantially. Regardless, it will be interesting to watch given the radar coverage we will have from now through landfall. Tonight I'll be watching to see 1) if the reduction in central convection leads to a collapse in the nascent inner core and if not 2) how soon we see the overnight convective burst I'm expecting. 18z HAFS has that happening around 5am.

The Sept 1 seasonal CANSIPS barely budges on its cold winter idea for the SE. Big PNA ridge and trough east of Hawaii. Split flow and seasonal cold. I remain skeptical, but a normal "biased warm" model is cold for our DJF time frame. Precip is AN for most of the region, and much AN for far eastern areas. Temps are BN. There is a coastal storm signal for the entire winter. We'll see! But man.... And if correct, it implies the worst of winter might well drag into March w/ an anomalous PNA ridge which reaches almost to the NP. Normally, these types of winters feature a stable PV, but good luck if that setup occurs.