All Activity

Predicting a storm trends north and west is low-hanging fruit

You take what you can get in a Nina.

Cape Hatteras has only received two 12" or above snowstorms: December 29-30, 1917 12.0" (NYC: 2.0") December 23-24, 1989 13.3" (NYC: None)

@ravensruleis that you?

Even the west leaning members on ICON ENS wouldn’t get it done. I’m starting to waver on this threat.

Thats just crazy. Lol and Detroit sits on a salt mine. Plow/Salt contractors in SE MI have been on overtime every week since Thanksgiving with exception of 2 weeks (Christmas week and 2nd week of January).

The ICON is not a dependable model even at this range, from my own experience. That said ... the 12z rendition of the wholesale evolution (operational) was in fact a marked improvement over the 00z. I don't pay enough attention to the off hour runs of this model - need more background on how it works/data feeds/initialization ...everything, which is not something I've been inclined to research given to the unstable performance I've noticed at anything beyond 60 or hours. But as as far as the former, there's time and space for trending.

I saw a video like that once or a dozen times.

He nailed last week's storm...

2 different camps Looks decent

No thanks. I just had 4.5” of WAA sleet. I want CAA snow.

That doesn't look great.

My question is if the dolphins, that had to leave because the water in the Atlantic was too cold for sleet, can come back and pull the low more wester so we can have snow? Can someone ask JB if this is possible?

GOOFUS is running. Here's the operational MSLP of the last 6 runs... hopping all over the place with really wide spread. I'm not out until probably 00z tonight if everything is consistently offshore through 12z/18z.

I'd rather have nothing instead of a cutter

96 had good ridging out ahead of it. Here we have a PV lobe dropping south of us suppressing the flow and the vort digs and amplifies last minute over the Carolinas. It tries late to pump some ridging back our way, but there’s less wiggle room for pulling something off. But we’re still at the point where we can see significant changes at H5 that could drastically change the outcome so everything is still on the table.

I feel like we've created 14 threads in the last week

That was the virga storm here..snowed for hrs and hrs aloft here, but never reached the ground. Lost a ton of precip to dry air inland here. Southeast CT crushed it cuz they saturated super quick and snowed to beat the band.

The next threat after this one is interesting to me. Pattern relaxes a bit. Might end up cutting. But another chance at some WAA love imo.

ICON EPS not gone

Pleased to say I found it easily before reading these helpful posts but thanks!

Seems kinda disjointed with the energy until it’s too late and out to sea. In any case it’s the Icon and not too concerned.

largely theoretical question: why does it seem like fish storms tend to be pretty sparse with precipitation on the northwest quadrant compared to storms closer to the coast? does the continental air enhance precipitation somehow? or is this observation wrong/just a modelling error?