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Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening. The caveat is it’s Michigan. The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence. It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer. Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep. But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.

Another severe wx pattern setting up, ahead of a strong trough

It only takes 1 storm to make a winter for the big cities and lake effect country. The rest of the area is screwed this upcoming winter. 15/16 was my lowest snowfall total year since I've been measuring here in Hamburg for the last 13. Right around 80"

A/C is on tonight. 70/70 with fog and mist. Feels tropical out there.

0.43" Not bad. Need a lot more.

0.15” on the day

Yeah not surprised by the zero rain today.

I watered my vegetable garden this afternoon because I figured the northern part of the line would fall apart. No luck today as expected, but hopefully better luck tomorrow or Friday.

Was he really warm last winter? Any seasonal forecaster will bust badly from time to time if they are being honest. I've honed my El Niño intensity composites today and will give the EMI ones a quick check before my next update later this month.

So much for the extended heatwave, but nice to have less humidity for a while.

Stein of a month so far. Only about .10

Raindance has intimated that it's shifting, as well...must be at least getting close. I do agree that the PDO will take a few, perhaps several, years longer.

Today was one the first days where it felt downright hot, looks like one more hot day and possible severe tomorrow evening before another cool down.

Yeah it doesn't look too bad.

True, but hopefully things start to change as we exit August. We have seen rapid improvements in as little as 90 days during previous Fall seasons leading into Winter.

Flood headlines and flash drought over

But nice cool breeze here now, if it wasn’t slightly humid it would be another open window night of sleep

What’s the point of making a watch THIS close to the city but not going all the way? The line is heading in that general direction; they’ll just add it later

It often falls apart around Allentown and Scranton, as was the case today. That's what was noteworthy of the line on Saturday evening - that it actually held together, which has been uncommon in the current long term pattern.

Tons of power outages over here, but locally only had 30-40 mph gusts with about 5 minutes of heavy rain. No thunder here. Considering we were at 88/73° I’m surprised everything fell apart as it did. Eyes turn to the MCS over northern Missouri tonight. If that stays tame and south, tomorrow will be rocking around here. If it blows up and feeds off the nocturnal LLJ tonight and we end up with 2-3 hours of rain then tomorrow will end up a lot like today with more rotation embedded in the discrete cells.

Poor Patrick Ewing had to deal with the Bulls during his whole career lol.

Please remove the disagree . WTTY

This.

This is the banter thread so here's some banter There are some things in life that are difficult to do yet one must do them. Things that, no matter how painful, no matter how difficult of a decision, yet one must gather up the strength of ones heart and mind and do them. This is my torture, my pain, and my confession that yes, I must root for the Knicks in this series. After decades and decades of absolute hatred of them and especially their fans I must, I cant help it. I would root for the Bull's before the Knicks even though they probably killed us more with MJ than the Knicks ever have...but, it's those damn Knicks fans. Spike Lee snapping his towel at Reggie, McEnroe "accidently" spilling his drink onto the court during a crucial fast break, Spikes (joking) KKK comment when the Knicks came to Indy in one of the playoff meetings (I laughed right along with him lol), Ben Stiller getting all manly in your face to whatever Pacer was 15 feet from him (how can that guy even think he's intimidating lol?). I was at one Pacer/Knicks playoff game in Indy and KNICKS FAN was sitting next to me. He laughingly told me we weren't bad for an "ABA" team. I told him they weren't bad for a team that could've had Dr. J for FREE (had to educate that young man lol). Yet I must root for them and as much as I hate to say it, it is because of their fans. They deserve it. As long as it's been, I get it more than most. I know what it's like to have that golden ring of a championship within your reach, only for fate (or the Pacers in their case ) to take it. So I'm here to confess I've been rooting for the Knicks (damn that hurts every time I say it) to take the Western Team (their balls don't count) in 7. Oh and Wu Tang will be the half time show tonight so there's that (The Pacers will be back with a huge chip next year, look out!) Confession off