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It’ll slowly capitulate to the Euro and ultimately slingshot a tempest near or over LI into NJ just like Euro, EPS and Euro Aifs . Like every coastal since the history of models

Leaves are quite a bit behind where we were last year at the same time. Last year was a solid 10-14 days ahead of schedule with the cool dry fall. This year is nowhere near that

Been in the OBX since last Thursday and no rain there and I missed the storms here as we got nothing here in Durham. Ugh. Now today I had a storm pop up just to my west and it went right around me. I am beginning to get a complex here.

Will be like 5F diurnal range all week here with these NE winds

0.22” yesterday morning 0.78” today off to a good start for the week

What a garbage model right now. With shifts like this 00z will put the center over Springfield. 64.5 here at WXW1 50.4 up at WXW2 with more frost possible tonight. First freeze possible tomorrow night.

I went apple picking last weekend. Beautiful weather.

I agree. It was good to see the sunshine.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be variably cloudy days. A few locations could see a shower, but dry weather should be predominant. Highs should reach the lower and middle 60s. Some rain and showers are possible Thursday and Friday. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter to perhaps moderate amounts of precipitation. Uncertainty exists. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout the week with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -23.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.435 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Just got smoked by a cell, 25 mph gusts and already .9 inch rain. Temp bombed to 70F from 90F in 20min

Yeah only 70° on Sunday…would like a few more degrees for picking honeycrisp.

Get used to that

1.28" this afternoon. Shocked we did so well. 3.17" for the month; the first time I've exceeded 3" since May (there you go Raven).

GFS still not there but better

Gfs alot further west

In all fairness to my earlier GFS post, the rest of the models all have this affecting us one way or the other…just depends on the severity which is why I found the GFS surprising.

Is this finally ushering in the wet pattern or is it another head fake?

That sounds nice, ha. High of 57F and now 50F here.

18z GFS AI still east but closer to SNE this run

I think it will get pulled back west a bit more this run.. lower pressures east of NC

18z GFS pretty much looks identical to 12z so far, maybe a tad more to the west?

If EDC is the problem, we are in big trouble for years to come and Lamar's ring is out the window--because Biscotti is not firing him unless the team continues to fail to make the playoffs. I am hoping that it's just that EDC has a blindspot/stubbornness for just the OL as opposed to the DNA of the players he drafts. The ladder would be the worst case scenario. The former I think can be overcome eventually (although whether that's this year remains to be seen. I think the SB window is gonna be between now and the end of next season.)

They gotta be smoking something really strong to go against the major models.

Season was over in July