All Activity

59° and sunny at noon Too early for this

Much of this winter warmth will likely be driven by overnight lows IMO due to the active pattern.

Haven't followed too closely, but looks like it's dependent on that coastal low. If we get these types of setups 3 months from now, then I'm gonna really start missing my jeep.

Right now I’m leaning towards a fairly torchy winter with *maybe* 1 salvageable month on the back side where it’s just slightly above normal. Can’t really ignore that every analog that was supposed to give us below normal temps has busted warm thus far into mid september, and there’s no signs of October being cooler than normal yet.

The main CFS site actually has 40 run averages (10 days x 4 runs/day).

71F/DP 55F as we approach noon. Still a little too hot for my liking.

If TD 6 can stay In that narrow pocket of lower shear I could see this system be a bit of a surprise strength wise. Wouldn’t shock me if this approached hurricane strength given the thermodynamic environment it resides in and small size. Obviously if it gets blasted by shear that it moot but this could be a surprise system

Pretty sure that very cold run isn't happening.

Also, the TT maps use colder 1984-2009 climo instead of the CFS site’s 1991-2020. The TT 3 day (12 run) avg does jump around more than the CFS site 10 day (40 run) avg. Regardless, I haven’t seen any 3 day avg Feb recently nearly as cold as those record cold Febs that were on some Aug 3 day means in the SE to S Plains. Then again, that degree of cold was hardly believable especially that far out. They were dreamable for me but not believable. I’ll keep following the trends of both the TT 3 day means and the CFS site 10 day means.

I think at a minimum minor to moderate coastal flooding will be an issue before the coming week is over. Days of easterly fetch and coming full moon combined with developing offshore storm / upper level cut off likely to cause issues.

On the satellite wx page that was posted a while back, you can see the daily CFS run and the 10-run average. As youd expect, it changes wildly every day.

Good call here. Wet wx across the S sub with LP slowly moving across the area, and a strong HP to the N.

September 19 1998: 1 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Meeker, Wright, Todd, and Wilkin Counties. Winds were also estimated over 50 knots / 58 miles per hour. 1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hits St. Paul. One company has 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed. For Saturday, September 19, 2026 1947 - The eye of a hurricane passed directly over New Orleans, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.61 inches. The hurricane killed fifty-one persons, and caused 110 million dollars damage. It produced wind gusts to 155 mph while making landfall over Fort Lauderdale FL two days earlier. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1967 - Hurricane Beulah deluged Brownsville, TX, with 12.19 inches of rain in 24 hours, to establish a record for that location. Hurricane Beulah made landfall on the 20th near the mouth of the Rio Grande River, where a wind gust to 135 mph was reported by a ship in the port. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Cool autumn-like weather invaded the Central Rockies. Temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s, with readings in the teens and 20s reported in the higher elevations. Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 15 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a fast moving cold front produced severe weather in Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Eight tornadoes were reported, including five in Indiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 74 mph at Wabash IND. Winds associated with the cold front itself gusted to 69 mph at Kenosha WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast Region. Cape Hatteras NC was deluged with nearly 3.50 inches of rain in three hours. Syracuse NY reported 1.77 inches of rain, a record for the date, and Chatham NJ reported an all-time record of 3.45 inches in one day. Hurricane Hugo headed for the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Iris, following close on its heels, strengthened to near hurricane force. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 19 Sat Locate An Old Friend Day 19 Sat National CleanUp Day 19 Sat International Eat an Apple Day 19 Sat International Coastal CleanUp Day 19 Sat National Dance Day 19 Sat National Gymnastics Day 19 Sat Big Whopper Liar Day 19 Sat Batman Day 19 Sat Oktoberfest 19 Sat Talk Like a Pirate Day 19 Sat Aortic Dissection Awareness Day 19 Sat National Cat DNA Day 19 Sat National Meow Like a Pirate Day 19 Sat National Overthinkers Day 19 Sat National Woman Road Warrior Day 19 Sat National Butterscotch Pudding Day

Exciting times

2 reasons not to worry. First, the Cfs2 site has remained steady with temps it's been advertising for JFM. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Second reason, the October Cansips comes out in only 11 days! Lol

SPC has day one marginal risk out for Far Eastern middle Tennessee the Cumberland plateau and the much majority of East Tennessee https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20260919_1300.html .

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI. The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly under HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however after that gradual weakening is expected to occur. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

Models still struggling with the timing of rain tomorrow and Monday

It was almost like NHC was just hoping it would go away so they didn’t have to classify it

Hit 101.3 yesterday, 0.05 rain. Better be the last 100