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I hope you get an inch of ice

2 out of 20 GEFS give us 6+, 3 out of 50 EPS do. Still a long shot at this time.

No problem, it's all about the AIs at this range. We pass the baton to the legacy models sometime on Thursday. May I have a blend of AIGFS and AI Euro?

I usually, I do not say much about this guy as he always jumps on board at the last minute with hand drawn maps and makes grossly inaccurate long range forecasts. Ralph Wiggum and LV Blizzard has him beat by miles. Anything DT says now, take with a grain of salt. I been reading this guys posts, for 10+ years and I believe Ji from the MA forum more than this DT. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity, especially with qpf amounts, usually cut by 25% or more. This dam reliable LR prediction pattern destroyed my latest prediction on last nights storm where I thought we could get 6+ inches of snow and only got 2-3 inches here in the LV (over ten days ago.) Lets hope the MECS sticks around this time. A separate thread should not be started until Friday evenings Meso runs - anything before then will jinx it. You are warned

We are 120 hours away lol

When the snowpack freezes up, the surface becomes rigid in the top few inches, and it can sustain the powder on top without compaction. Fluffy snows do compact fast, but what came during the colder wx was probably more powder with less air in the pack.

Not much ice or snow to speak of for this one in CT albeit the extreme northern areas along the MA border

The EPS was snowy so there

I'll gladly welcome the Euro AIFS in our corner.

I got temporarily dry slotted, which was frustrating at the time, but the remnants of the deform band finally made it through with acceptable results. That storm was great because of the warm ground, we were able to get out the next day to go shopping at the Sam's club in Severn. Pretty good considering we had 28" officially I think.

Nice little event, saw just under 2 inches of wet-medium density snow on cold surfaces near Port Washington!

And lack of melting.

Mammoth will close part of their resort tomorrow Feb 17. They have already picked up 12 inches of new snow, with heavy snow now expected through Thursday. Woolly Lot already looks drastically different. Plow Guy needs to get started plowing snow in that lot! Its piling up superfast and its blowing around too! Mammoth is now 19 degrees and falling! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

24-30

Lack of rain has kept the pack dry.

Cool. Enjoy all the snow it showed

Yeah they got crushed with that deform band while I got dry slotted. Got half a storm here lol.

Consistency of the snow as well. No icing whatsoever. Makes a tough go on an ATV. It's essentially sand.

It's tiring reading the back and forth about starting a thread vs not starting a thread. Who cares. There's no such thing as a jinx and even though the models have been performing poorly at this range this year, it's fine to discuss a storm in a dedicated thread. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't but if it doesn't it's not bc a thread was started. The pattern doesn't look ideal for a big storm but who knows! Enjoy all the ups and downs of tracking a possible event. This forum is supposed to be fun. Enjoy the weather and may the odds be ever in your favor.

What about Boston?

True. That is the hobby.

Don't forget 1/16.

The cold and snow retention have been the highlights this year

N of CT yes.