All Activity

Most historical Super east-based Nino's had Winter +NAO. A lot of the seasonal models have more -NAO this Winter.. I said it before, give me -NAO with Super Nino STJ anytime, regardless of the Pacific. It does makes sense that an El Nino would have more -NAO than 48-20 composite because it goes with a tendency to warm 10mb. But we have +QBO this Winter which is a counter to that. And we haven't had a true -NAO Winter in 14 years. But logistically speaking late Summer has been cool locally.. just like the last 2 years. It will snow this year, low odds of a Dec-Mar wall-to-wall torch like 97-98 imo

@jconsor good questions! It got close to subtropical status ydy. Saying it had no characteristics of that is incorrect. Not enough to call it a named ST storm, but not a whiff either. And despite being shallow warm core, it is *strong* warm core w/ thickness that high. Saw 23 C and 850, 14 C at 700 , and -3 C at 500 on the ECMWF analysis earlier on in the storm. That is a common temp profile in a strong TS in the tropics or a hybrid system farther N, Those 925-500 temps I just listed is what Sandy had per recon when it underwent a solid warm seclusion and became more tropical offshore the day of landfall (as a Cat 2), like the Perfect Storm did late in its existence. A warm seclusion is the first step to ST or T transition, so why that it is said a "mere warm seclusion" is odd. Yes, many, many occluded cyclones get a warm seclusion, but not all are the same or stop there. And in this case, SSTs plenty warm for a ST or even T transition. 26 C as a cut off is overrated. You can get legit ST systems w/ SSTs as low as 15 C. Look at the Jan 2023 event off the Mid-Atlantic -- it was just a little bit farther offshore than this event, but that made all the difference I think. I posted on that earlier on this thread along w/ a sat loop that shows a remarkable hurricane for time of year and location! NHC ignored it operationally and called it s 60 kt STS later, but I do not agree. 65 kt HU easy. Subtropical storms do not have a persistent defined eye w/ a solid ringeven of mdtly-deep convection. Find me a baroclinic strong coastal storm in which the sfc low started S of the 576 thk line and wrapped, creating a closed pool of 582 thk over the center. That's practically unheard of, at least in this part of the world. So an outlier case, and that's why you can't treat it as "only" this or that typical. The thing that prevented this storm from becoming total ST is that is was just a bit too close to land. You want to see such a system 150 mi or more away from sig land b/c otherwise cooler/drier continental air keeps funneling in. But given this storm was fcst such an outlier event climo-wise, I was cautious as to something unexpected happening here.

People died from falling trees in NYC today.

ISP gusting to 51mph. Pretty much what I expected tonight. 1.75" of rain so far. Highest gust remaims 55 mph.

A neighbor did have a large branch broken on his fence.

pretty much the same here.

Awareness is a two way street. You don't need to be relentlessly reminded on how "dangerous" it out out there, esp. when it is not that "dangerous" overall. Constant negative like that wears on society, promotes anxiety, and impacts zeitgeist, among other things. You start viewing the world as worse that is actually is, and many ppl think the wx is worse and unlike anything society has ever experienced before b/c of wx hype and the ordinary is constantly turned into the extraordinary That is not good. Decisions and policy are made from such false perceptions, never mind needless cancellations, as a couple of examples.

Monster N. Pacific low finally.. -250dm. You never get -250dm on the D10 ensemble mean unless it's a special circumstance. https://ibb.co/6RK3BJMZ

Yawn. 1.70” of rain and 45 mph winds.

I have noticed more hype wording over times. You will see "powerful" and "dangerous" used a lot. This kind of wording was used much more sparingly through the 90s, and was reserved for the truly high-end events. I got news you, all Nor'easters (and hurricanes for that matter) are powerful and dangerous. Redundant wording. This hurts business and commerce overall to the point we are being held hostage by the wx. That is not good. More is not always better. Using "better safe than sorry" is a cop out, get-out-of-jail-free, weasel excuse. But you have pander to the lowest common denominator these days. But at the same it insults those would know the deal and are responsible when it comes to wx and promotes distrust in authority b/c they clang the alarm bell relentlessly. And now supermarkets are crowded for a Nor'easter that has zero snow? WTF? You see the problem here. Unnecessary panic and fear is instilled every time of inclement wx now. And don't get me started on the use of "catastrophic" That is abused big time. The problem is that it is used by default. Impact/damage is never severe, disastrous, moderate, minor, or anything else other than "catastrophic" these days. Ever notice that? There is no scaling or quantification of it all anymore.

I'm really concerned about Central NJ. The wind, the rain... the flooding. It's going to be really bad for them.

Hopefully this can make it to the threads most liked post, instead of all that drama stuff

The overnight ramp up has not delivered here. It's been mainly light rain and gusts to 30. Storm total thus far about .40.

good use of AI

What about the swath of tree damage in GHG from the Bliz of 13? Legendary you talk about that!

T-bone frontal fracture. That's a Sharpio-Keyser cyclone, the ones that have the crazy winds on the backside. Dec 9, 2005 is perhaps the best one in SNE.

Heavy rain and wind here

When you say the weenie in Welfleet is 100 ft. Is that is ground elevation or the anemometer height? I say this b/c as long as the anemometer height is 10 m, it doesn't matter what the ground elevation is. Yes, of course ground elevation relative to surrounding elevation needs to be considered, but ppl and infrastructure are still there! If one happens to live on a ridge/bluff, that doesn't discount it. The former CHH radar/RAOB site sits on a bluff, and I recall comparing obs here to the CQX airport, Night and day! CQX is not that windy of location. HYA/FMH/PVC do much better. Here is the BID airport. Despite it's elevation, it is far enough inland and surrounding by trees that you are going to have sig differences to the shoreline. I've seen this numerous times going E on 286 to Seabrook MA. Once you get out of the trees and into the salt marshes, holy cow!

Don't look now, DMV but here comes yet another big rain blob from the Northeast! You guys are gonnabe piling up some fresh rain tallies!

I posted an ob of 50kt there a page or two ago

I was just thinking of Dec 11-12, 1992...the one @CoastalWx likes to forget b/c he got royally screwed in Brockton when so many others basked in white glory, getting their biggest snowfall in nearly 10 years! That even started w/ sig wind well before the pcpn started (reminded me of he Bliz of 78). You know you are in for it when that happens! Then a full day of R+ in ern MA, that turned to S+ predawn the next day and I got 18" in Woburn. To get that much rain first and that much snow in a single event is practically unheard of. Woonsocket RI had 7" total pcpn (20" of that snow). That is huge amount of pcpn in the NEUS for a nor'easter in a winter month. And it was not that extreme as far as low/high combo. 985 low stalled E of the Delmarva and a 1035 high in Quebec. Yet coastal flooding was epic.

Insane out right now like a legit tropical storm, 2k more outages last 15 minutes on Long Island