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As Ben is pointing out, we could be dealing with some convection further west than the typical super Nino configuration due to warm waters extending further west. Makes sense to me unless we can get some actual cool SSTAs in the west pac. Same theme we’ve been dealing with where it may cause split forcing or alter the standing wave forcing to some degree.

Looking at the radar, it’s remarkable how the rain knows where the Mason-Dixon Line is located.

May 9 1966: Minnesota experiences a widespread hard freeze, with temperatures in the teens as far south as Caledonia. For Saturday, May 9, 2026 1966 - Record snows fell in the northeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, including 3.1 inches at Pittsburgh PA and 5.4 inches at Youngstown OH. Snow also extended across parts of New York State, with eight inches reported in the southern Adirondacks. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - A late season snowstorm hit parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and southern and central New England. Heavier snowfall totals included 27 inches at Slide Mountain NY and 20 inches at Norwalk CT. At Boston it was the first May snow in 107 years of records. The heavy wet snow caused extensive damage to trees and power lines. The homes of half a million persons were without power following the storm. (9th-10th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1985 - Lightning struck some trees about 150 yards away from a home in Alabama, and followed the driveway to the home. The charge went through the house and burned all the electrical outlets, ruined appliances, and blasted a hole in the concrete floor of the basement. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably warm weather spread from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. It was the fourth day of record warmth for Eugene OR and Salem OR. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A massive cyclone in the central U.S. produced severe thunderstorms from eastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado ripped through Middleboro KY causing more than 22 million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in east central Texas produced hail three and a half inches in diameter at Groesbeck, and near Fairfield. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the south central U.S. produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 62 mph at Mira LA, and during the morning hours drenched Stuttgart AR with five inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. during the evening hours, mainly from southeastern Missouri to southwestern Indiana. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, including two strong (F-2) tornadoes in southern Illinois. Strong thunderstorm winds gusted to 85 mph at Orient IL, and to 100 mph at West Salem. Thunderstorms drenched northeastern Illinois with up to 4.50 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

This morning is dogshit. Again.

Two more chilly nights and then we are probs done with frost potential. Pattern change is afoot

Supposed to go the Senators game tonight. I trust it’ll be played.

It’s just north of you…you’re getting warm sectored today.

It looks like at least another couple of weeks before we get any measurable rain. The winds are already drying things out. I pray it is not a long, hot and dry summer. I cannot afford another water bill like I had for April!

Right after the wild turkey one is done

Up to 56° and some breaks

Frosty 26 this morning, but at least the sun is out. First 8 days this month has had only 31% of available sunshine; average is 42%. We've had rain on all 8 days, but are running only 90% of average. Tuesday's high of 78 changed the sugar maple buds to small leaves, which haven't expanded much since then. Looks better 20th onward.

Sun is out here, wonder the implications for later.

Yes, a very serious situation. We need some type of reset event, and soon!

Not polishing doodies but even getting some dim breaks of sun this morning currently. Certainly not a nice day but it had been modeled wire to wire soaker . Getting to that time of year when synoptic rains tend to break up some during the day

Smith mtn lake is over 5' below full pool. Many ramps including the one in my hood are unusable. Many boats on lifts cannot touch the water. It's apparently the lowest the lake has been since 1968 which was just a few years after it filled up for the first time. Lake levels are generally quite stable and typically don't fluctuate more than a foot or 2 throughout the year. The recent rain helped knocked the dust down but I'm starting to think it's going to take a tropical event to reset this drought with any efficiency. Thankfully the well on our property on the other side of the mountain has no competition from neighboring landowners.

It's been so warm and dry out here...just one big tinder box. Snowpack for my neck of the woods was a record low this winter. We hit 88 degrees in March which is a month earlier than ever recorded in Grand Junction. Of course, none that will impact your trip. Always incredible scenery at least!

Lol ... polishin' the turd? I applaud your virtue in attempting to see the bright side of a deplorable circumstance but ... my subjective opinion about today? It is has, so far, zero redemptive value. None. Nil, nothing, zilch, nadda. 44, light rain. Case closed. Does nothing to improve the background moisture deficits in any meaningful way, while simultaneously absolutely crushing any outdoor enjoyment. And ... doing so on a precious weekend day when 90+% of civility has so few days off is an extra special kind of stinky piece of shit.

Temps are modeled to get into the low 60's down here, so I'm expecting some breaks forming

After this coming week of 50's/60's..looks like we are start warming up to the 70's/80s. I'm still expecting some days in the 60's down here..but I think we are just about done with the April like weather - starting next weekend

Actually might move over ocracoke. Surprised there isn’t a tornado warning

Seems like the rain much lighter and scattered than modeled

I expect another baseline temperature jump this year. The amount of heat release in the pacific is going to be astronomical. The cpac hurricane and Epac typhoon seasons should be historic. .

Today’s Boston Globe has a good article about the May 1977 snowstorm. here’s the link, but I’m pretty sure it’s probably paywalled: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/05/09/metro/mothers-day-snow-storm-1977-ma/

Records: Highs: EWR: 93 (2000) NYC: 94 (1979) LGA: 92 (2000) JFK: 86 (2000) Lows: EWR: 33 (1947) NYC: 34 (2020) LGA: 36 (2020) JFK: 34 (2020) Historical: 1894: Portland, OR had its latest freeze when the temperature fell to 32°. This is the only May freeze in Portland's history. 1918: An F4 tornado moved across Floyd, Chickasaw, and Winneshiek Counties in northeast Iowa from two miles north of Pearl Rock to Calmar. Two people died just east of Calmar, when the tornado was a mile wide. Losses in and near Calmar totaled $250,000. Overall, this tornado killed 7 people and injured 15 others. An F3 tornado initially touched down a mile south of Pachard, IA then moved east northeast into Chickasaw County, Iowa and dissipated three miles east of Pearl Rock. A woman was killed there when a dozen homes were damaged. As many as 30 people hid in a single cellar. Overall, it killed one person, injured 5 other, and caused $50,000 dollars in property damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1922: Yosemite Valley, CA received 7.5 inches of snow, their biggest May snowfall on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1923: TRACE OF SNOW FELL AT WBO AND BAL. 1927: A major tornado outbreak occurred from Texas to Michigan. There were 28 tornadoes rated F2 or greater. Nine separate tornadoes killed five or more people. A tornado touched down 5 miles east of Morrisonville, IL, then moved northeast to Decatur. In Christian County, the tornado killed one person and caused 67 injuries. The tornado widened in the Decatur area, did minor damage to over 1,000 homes, and injured 50 people. Popular Bluff, MO was devastated by an F4 tornado. 98 people were killed and 300 were injured. 31 business and residential blocks were destroyed in the city. Strong, AR was leveled by another F4 tornado with 24 people killed. St. Louis, MO reported a wind gust of 75 mph. Behind the storm, Chadron, NE reported two inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1933: A tornado causing F4 damage moved through Monroe, Cumberland, and Russell Counties in Kentucky along a 60-mile path. The town of Tompkinsville, KY was the hardest hit with 18 people killed. Overall, 36 people lost their lives. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1959: An outbreak of tornadoes occurred in central and eastern Oklahoma with more than 10 tornadoes. The most significant tornado, an F4, touched down near Harden City in Pontotoc County, and produced a path of devastation before lifting north of Stonewall. Seven people were killed and another 12 injured by the twister. Many head of cattle were killed and 20 oil derricks north of Harden City were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1966 - Record snows fell in the northeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, including 3.1 inches at Pittsburgh PA and 5.4 inches at Youngstown OH. Snow also extended across parts of New York State, with eight inches reported in the southern Adirondacks. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - A late season snowstorm hit parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and southern and central New England. Heavier snowfall totals included 27 inches at Slide Mountain NY and 20 inches at Norwalk CT. At Boston it was the first May snow in 107 years of records. The heavy wet snow caused extensive damage to trees and power lines. The homes of half a million persons were without power following the storm. (9th-10th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1979: A heat wave occurred across the east coast: Notable afternoon highs included 95° at Boston, MA and 94° at New York City. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985 - Lightning struck some trees about 150 yards away from a home in Alabama, and followed the driveway to the home. The charge went through the house and burned all the electrical outlets, ruined appliances, and blasted a hole in the concrete floor of the basement. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably warm weather spread from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. It was the fourth day of record warmth for Eugene OR and Salem OR. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A massive cyclone in the central U.S. produced severe thunderstorms from eastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado ripped through Middleboro KY causing more than 22 million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in east central Texas produced hail three and a half inches in diameter at Groesbeck, and near Fairfield. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the south central U.S. produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 62 mph at Mira LA, and during the morning hours drenched Stuttgart AR with five inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. during the evening hours, mainly from southeastern Missouri to southwestern Indiana. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, including two strong (F-2) tornadoes in southern Illinois. Strong thunderstorm winds gusted to 85 mph at Orient IL, and to 100 mph at West Salem. Thunderstorms drenched northeastern Illinois with up to 4.50 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: A 7-year-old girl was killed when a lightning bolt directly struck her as she played softball in a park at Lighthouse Point in Broward County, Florida. The thunderstorm was about 5 miles northwest of the park when the lightning struck in the midst of 10 children and coaches. The park is surrounded by trees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)