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6z NAM IJD

Sure would like to see a 25-50 mile slide south

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan

6z NAM & Latest HRRR

23 in the Bronx. About 12 hours 'til showtime.

And 3k

6z HRRR also north

Man do we pray!

6Z NAM zonked again.. warning snows even here

Dear lord, I’m going to keep quiet.

Buyt this should be more or less from the East Asia winter monsoon trough sorta speaking this shifts H from the Bering Sea into Siberia,Mongolia

Clear. 15.8F

Wind and lake effect have some potential to make things interesting locally on Monday. Not huge amounts, but wind-driven snow and cold. Beyond that, the Euro at least has a couple fantasy storms.

Let's go

Yes as Will said 12/14/95 is a farther south version of this. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-14-1995 The first one that came to mind in terms of sfc low track and overall qpf trajectory is 01/14/04. Though contrary to 12/14/95 this is a farther north version of that one. And synoptically at H85 it doesn't appear to be an analog on the list for CIPS. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-14-15-2004

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too.

The metals markets are completely out of control right now. The paper slammers can't crush it down anymore and there just isn't enough silver to go around. It's being driven by a true physical shortage. Between that and a 7 dollar spread between Shanghai and London, it'll keep going up for now regardless of how "overbought" it is. Now back to weather!

All models showing around 2-3" for most the metro Sat night. We might somehow finish this craptastic month with a respectable amount of snowfall.

Snow is falling! Snow is Blowing all over the place! It's blowing off of the roofs because there's four feet of pow on all the roofs and its also blowin up a snow hurricane off the ground! Visibilities are shot all to hell! It's a milkshake froth! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Nice improvements for most in snowfall over the last 4 runs on the NBM, even if the Euro has me a little worried over its light QPF, lol.

Looks like January should start off cool with an otherwise near normal month temp and precip wise

12z 00z

Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus in Dec won’t be that warm at all! Pop weighted Dec temps are progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal. My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN. Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN. Based strictly on geographic area though, my guess is that the Conus will come out to ~3 AN for Dec (~1 BN E 1/2 and ~7 AN W 1/2) or ~37 F. If it comes out to 3 AN, that wouldn’t be anywhere near the records of 2023 (~5.5 AN or 40.0), 2021 (~5 AN or ~39.3 F) 2015 (~4.5 AN or ~38.6 F), and 2024 (~4 AN or 38.3 F). So, I expect Dec of 2025 on an aerial basis to come out ~3 F colder than 2023, ~2 F colder than 2021, ~1.5 F colder than 2015, and ~1.0 F colder than 2024. Also, 1939 was ~37.7 F. So, I believe that on an aerial basis that Dec of 2025 will come out no warmer than 6th warmest Dec since 1895. Also, it’s possible that 1957 and even 2014 end up warmer than 2025 if I’m a little too warm with my 37 F guess by, say, a couple of tenths, possibly dropping 2025 down to as low as 8th warmest. @TheClimateChanger

Main overrunning band reaches ELI through NW CT to ALB NY. That continues the multi-cycle trend of pushing this band further north and east into New England.

It’s a very large swath the Euro tries to cut, especially in that Binghamton to Albany corridor. I’m skeptical of that verbatim. Still a nice storm for SW CT and now much of SNE.