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They got burned last week so makes sense they aren’t being conservative

Snore fest

Welcome to the uncancellation of the cancellation of the uncancellation of the cancellation of winter! We are so back.

Lol got it. Well, carry on!

I guess they are sticking to 6/9 for their entire coverage area.

I feel its always too dry with the exception of deep lows. Its not always a huge error but .25-.30 too low can be 4-5 inches if you have a 15:1 event.

I can't guarantee 10 anywhere but they'll be a nice band somewhere and ratios should be very good with this one.

And the 12z AIGFS does exactly the same thing as the 12z Euro.

Like I said. Not their forecast. That's an experimental thing you can look at. Their expected snowfall is 7 and puts NYC in the 6-8 band and Upton just updated their warning to 6-9 inches. They aren't buying the euro. .

Why are folks so obsessed with what BOX does? They aren’t the official voice, and usually are always in catchup mode. Will anyone be shocked when they have warnings for all of CT tonight?

Same here in rockland which is bizarre since I’m 30 ish miles nw.

The overcast is rippin' here. Gusts 0-1 mph.

Yup, Upton bumped up totals (floor and ceiling for all) to 6" - 9" in latest discussion/warning

Euro AI keeps the 6/7 system down in N.C..

The 12z Euro really wants to get rid of the Aleutian high. By roughly 162, it pretty much begins the process of wiping it out within hours. The run ends w/ the EPO hooking into the NAO. Now, I am not saying that is gonna happen, but if that does...that is the gold standard.

it looked good for a while...smh. the primary ended up going to far north

How many inches so far?

Euro often too dry in these scenarios I think.

Euro looks great. Held serve.

Yep, this close in that’s ridiculous. You can’t call it 3-6”?

20.1/4.5

Confused ?

Updated Warning from Upton 6-9 inches for NYC

Exactly . People clinging to euro runs when it’s now cast time.

Like I said yesterday, models aren't going to pick up discrete threats in the Jan 5-12 timeframe until we get to New Years and that's why the models look dry and "boring". Only now the Euro shows something for Jan 6. It won't verify verbatim probably, but something is there. I didn't think it would show a threat this soon. OTOH, 12z GFS has 2-3 cutters (which probably won't verify verbatim either).