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72-73 was decent it looks like… rest leaves something to be desired again.

Ugly, ugly stuff, @powderfreak. We did better than most but my God. Not the stake, but 23-24 was modestly better. Well, not really. Also, not sure what they were doing with the ranges on this graphic.

Probably one of the warmest first weeks of November on record from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. This makes sense given how extreme this El Niño event has become. Many areas will have 10+ departures for the November 1st through 7th. I just posted in the main El Niño thread how these early SSWs in the past have been associated with the November pattern persisting through DJF. We saw this with the early SSW last November 2025 followed by the general 500 mb pattern repeating and amplifying through DJF. So it will be interesting to see if we are getting an early winter preview this month.

2 examples that stand out. The AI model is creating a new light purple color code out of nowhere Also its text does not understand how the color contours correspond to snowfall lol So yeah, affirms my suspicion that he just fed the canSIPS output into an AI model that is good enough to make maps (naturally weather maps probably show up a lot in the training data so it has some stuff to work with), but he asked it to generate data that does not exist and can't be derived from just the precip and temp maps alone.

BWI 23" DCA 18" IAD 20.5" RIC 6.5" SBY 3"

Speaking of JB, these are his analogs per yesterday’s free to all “Saturday Summary”:

How was 23-24, 72-73, and 57-58?

BWI: 9.1 DCA: 4.5 IAD: 15.2 RIC: 1.7 Tiebreaker (SBY): 0.2

I am almost certain that this is derived from JB asking an AI model to produce a snowfall output map based on the model's temperature and precip anomaly maps. AI like the one that made this map are only designed to interpret and create images, so it (and therefore this map) aren't grounded in any climatological understanding. Basically, it's AI slop wishcasting, and if you ask the same model to make the exact same map it will be different every time.

This is only the 4th November with a major SSW event. So our sample size is very small. But all 3 previous events were associated with the general November 500mb North American pattern persisting and gaining amplitude through DJF. This was the case in 2025-2026, 1968-1969, and 1952-1953. Should this pattern repeat again in 2026-2027, then this very warm November El Niño pattern will become more amplified during DJF. It would be interesting to find the specific mechanism associated with the early SSW which lead to the November pattern persisting and amplifying through the entire winter in those years. Since it’s very rare for the November pattern to persist through DJF most years. A few seasonal forecasts last year basically repeated the November 2025 500mb pattern for DJF and it worked out for them. 19 November 1952 28 November 1968 28 November 2025

Can’t control it, if it’s bad hopefully it’s dry and mild.

Iow, we'd have to find something else to argue about?....That shouldn't be hard! Lol Thanks to Weather Will in MA forum, JB posted the Canadian's snowfall map for November's run.

Mine looks sad. It went south last weekend.

WB Nov. Canadian seasonal

I could go for some thunder. Seems like it's been a long time.

It’s a warmer version of 15-16, absolute disaster

Source: WB JB post from latest Canadian seasonal. Hope it is right!

CANSIPS, like seasonal models in general, is highly deficient. I have the impression that it is one of the more deficient ones in general. But even the better seasonal models (like the Euro supposedly is, for example) have their deficiencies. In a way, I’m glad because if they weren’t deficient the seasonal models would be in agreement and would be pretty much right all of the time (assuming accurate initializations), and then there’d be far less of a need to have these intense forecasting discussions. Thus, there’d be far fewer than 233 pages ITT, for example.

I know we joke, but in all seriousness hopefully it’s not too bad up there.

Pick out your favorite hilltop on this map .. any state

BWI: 0.3” DCA: 0.3” IAD: 0.7” RIC: 0.1” SBY: 0.2” Precip won’t be the issue, timing it with cold will.

No way... you're telling me there could be cold air or even snow sometime in the winter in the midwest? what a bold call!

Snowfall and depth not great, though 1997-98 was ok at the summit. Numerous events were just cold enough for elevation snows. It was not good down low. 15-16, disaster, 82-83 disaster.