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You better be prepared to suit up tomorrow night!

Opal in 1995, Dennis in 2005, and the list goes on.

WB 6Z EURO and AI

Remains Cat 2 at the 8am intermediate advisory. A bit surprising to be honest. Pressure down to 958mb

Yep, people seem to only remember the ones that intensified upon landfall. But Idalia in 2023 weakened right before landfall, Delta in 2020 did too, and of course Katrina weakened big time before landfall.

On the cusp of a major--the only one of the season--which would be a huge coup for my peak season forecast.

Marginal D3 SPC outlook right now but with a 5% tor risk. Good chance there's an upgrade as we get closer if the track holds.

The rotator cuff was ok! A torn bicep and labrum, but that’s so much better.

i respectfully disagree with you. the 3 games i am aware of closest to the storm's impacts are Georgia/Alabama in Tuscaloosa (storm will be effectively over by kickoff), Georgia Tech/Duke in Atlanta (breezy and rainy, but no big deal in the whole scheme of things) and Vanderbilt/Ole Miss in Nashville (similar to Atlanta, with probably less overall impact, and less tornado threat). i do agree with you that this could come in like Opal... in the sense that the pressure might rise 25 millibars prior to landfall off its peak.

Low of 45. Heading up to Happy Valley this afternoon!

Low of 42 in Marysville. Agreed, lower than what I expected.

Through history, the opposite has occurred vs intensifying. The recent ones to intensify had much weaker shear vs what is forecasted.

As a Alabama native, this storm is emulating Opal more than anything else. I wouldn't be surprised if this makes landfall as a category 3 even though the environmental conditions are yielding weakening. Also the fact that college football games are scheduled to be held in outdoor open air stadiums uninterrupted is idiotic. The wind gusts are going to make doing most pass plays impossible to do successfully along with the fields becoming slush/mud pits during the games. These are impending disasters waiting to happen. Yes, the tornado and damaging winds are looking to be the biggest threats to AL to SC.

But also plenty of situations like Opal 1995, Lili 2002 and Dennis 2005 where the storm collapsed coming in. It could be a high end Cat 1 or even cat 2 at landfall though since it only has so much time to weaken before landfall. Thankfully for surge it’s a smaller sized storm so it can’t build up a huge mound of water. Definitely a tough forecast but hopefully people down there prepped for a stronger than expected storm.

I drafted Jayden Daniels as my fantasy QB, and I just grabbed Michael Penix on the waiver wire. So do I start the guy who has consistently disappointed in fantasy when he hasn’t been hurt or the guy playing against my favorite team?

GFS hour 384. Let's do this:

We wish we were in Florida.. storm still intensifying quickly

Good thing I have well water... can we get rain on any other day than Sunday though?

The latest blend of models. Still looking promising

we seen this scenario so many times in the gulf a storm suppose to weaken due to sheer actually get stronger right until landfall..

Also we've seen how storms can maintain higher gusts as they weaken for a time. Plus with the broadening of the wind field inland gusts to 50mph+ will be quite widespread, which is impactful with all the trees

Agree with you, NHC even has this verbiage in the 4AM discussion…. Isaias will likely become a major hurricane soon with the improving satellite imagery, and it could continue to intensify for the next 12 hours or so while it moves over very warm and deep water. However, a large increase in shear is anticipated before landfall, which will probably cause some weakening to occur. This is a tenuous spot because it would only take about a 6h delay in the onset of the shear to bring a stronger hurricane than expected onshore. .