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Note there is a "predict the cold" contest for the interval Saturday to Monday, thank you for your attention to this matter.

Given climo, that December ‘89 stretch is still so crazy.

Just looked at my forecast. Another solid week of single digit lows. Enough... This kind of cold is just too much for me.

ORH stayed below freezing today to make it 12 days in a row. The record is 23. Don’t think we will reach that but not out of the realm. If they can get to 20, that will be 3rd all time. Two longest stretches? Dec 8 - Dec 30th 1989 at 23 days Jan 11 - Feb 1st 2003 at 22 days

Like you said it's a more typical mid February on lots of snow chances if we are on the right side of the gradient

AIfs looks pretty active moving forward

The OP run basically had us N or BN almost the entire run. GEFS look warmer at the end of the run. I expect a period of AN temps but I’m not expecting a bunch of double digit positive departures like we saw for a week in January.

I am with you. Modeling has been atrocious warm or cold

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be. I will start off with a MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast. Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days. Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late). My entry will be considered last entry so I won't tie-break anyone entering at any time. For purposes of this contest only, differential of zero snowfall to Trace, and Trace to 0.1" snowfall will be taken as equal whether it really is equal by degree of the trace observed or not. Your template if you want to use it MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___" Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry. MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F). but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus. DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th). Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed. ___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total.

i don't think we will warm much lol if guidance latches onto a mild spell <D7, i'll look more closely

This one feels like a loser for anything beyond a trace for just about anyone not on a mountain. Hope I’m wrong!

nah, 23.6° on the 21st here, I'm curious what the record is in this area for below freezing

The torch warm up is completely muted by 18z GEFS

Ugh. Caps already down 1-0 in a game they really need to win.

I know you people don’t like facts and science so I’ll give it to you. That period was very mild with days of +10 to 15. So yeah it was very mild. Im not sure why you are putting words in my mouth about it not being cold. Never said that. But to think somehow we just ignore multiple models and signals for milder weather because its been cold is just ridiculous.

A friend of mine took this picture of Buzzards Bay from New Silver Beach today.

I am very confident our pre season call that EOR ends 150% and WOR 125% of snow avg remains on track..

Clear as a bell and 32 here. I mean like really clear

And then a suppressed event a day later which Is probably a good sign

36/27 with light flurries here at Massanutten.

Dang Scoots…GL in the ring.

Yes. And this all we’ve been saying. Stop f’n nitpicking. The thaw in Jan wasn’t a torch by any means, but sure, it warmed. Nobody ever said it didn’t. But before and after it’s been an frieken ice box! You gonna argue that? And that’s been the tenor. The tenor is the long term look/feel..and the look/and feel has been dam cold. You’re a negative Nellie always looking for something to nitpick…especially for someone who just got two feet of snow. After Valentine’s Day is clown range. We’ll see how that looks next week.

Huh??? did I miss something?

33° and light snow here in Augusta County.