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6z icon is OTS.

I used 33° to include 32° highs

00z EPS spread is giving me the classic Hatteras to BM vibes.

Definitely not good runs on the Euro group during the night going more away.

This has explosive potential as a major energy peak tries to shift a big cold high leaning hard on it from the north and west. The Euro (00z) said expect a heavy snowfall in s.e. VA and some snow north into s.e. PA and s NJ but the low would then head due east, skunking NY, LI, NE etc. Other models share the wealth more widely, or hint that everyone will miss out. Would not expect a fast trend to model consensus on this. One thing is fairly obvious, there won't be a warm nose for NAM to bring in from the woods. Extreme cold is returning with that high. And this time there is no primary inland to deal with, the coastal is all or nothing. Given the fact that at least one model depiction looks like the twin brother of 3-12-1888, it would be an understatement to say this has potential. But we've used that term more often than actual. The 06z NAM looks like it is getting ready at 84h to carve out a trough near 75W and would probably evolve more like GEM than Euro. But how often does one see the 498 dm thickness contour dropping south towards TN? Models won't have a lot of analogues to consult on this. I am coming to belief that Euro is currently too weak in development and a storm will move up the coast. As long as it isn't pushed a bit too far east things will be ripe for a large to very large storm impacting land.

Im not loving all 3 major ens systems taking the system farther off the coast at 0z. If we are going to have a reversal like last system, changes need to happen by 12z wednesday imo. This was looking better 24 hrs ago but there is still time.

I know nothing of this but having to spend time in southern California with movie stars and actresses, when you could be trapped in a blizzard in New England sounds like an awful existence and I can't imagine the misery of it. Well I'm a weather weenie so maybe I can.

I'm talking about a coastal position because of the trough evolving to a negative tilt.

That's the other guy's caddy.

Hey MichaelJames! Welcome to American Weather! This looks like it gonna be a very snowy next couple of weeks, maybe longer!

That winter really looks relentless when you see all the snowfall listed out like that. It shows how consistent the cold pattern was through early 2014. Even now, when coordinating winter travel with Luxury Rides LLC, I always think back to seasons like this and how unpredictable snow totals can be.

Chasing snow for fun, whether it is just following model runs or actually going to a location such as The Tug, can be fun but this is a choice everyone must make. If you walk around too much like I did or dig way too much snow like I did, there could be real life consequences down the road, like ending up like me at age 62. But this does not happen to everyone. I don't have many regrets. I have some, but many more great memories of jebwalking, sliding like a maniac on my shoe soles down many an ice covered road while whooping it up like a crrazy man lmao and digging massive amounts of fresh powder snow and piling it up to embarrassing heights. Same thing goes for trying to forecast these storms. The models will get better (I think). Use your brain most of all. Use your experience. Remember past storms. Get a copy of the KU Book. Ask questions of the Mets here and the hobbyists (not me, lol). I am talking about people like Bob Chill, SnowinOutThere, bncho and PSU and many others. They'll teach you what they know and go after that meteorology degree then chase that big snow dream! There will always be weather and there will always be big storms! One day there will be a HUGE triple phaser like March 13 1993!

Here's my two cents. Yes, the storm two days ago featured sleet falling at 13 degrees due to the warm nose at ~750-800mb. Snow formed high up in the atmosphere and fell out of it, but when those falling snowflakes ran into that warm nose, they melted and turned into raindrops. After they exited that warm nose, they eventually refroze into sleet pellets. I'm actually not entirely sure how a snowflake forms, but what I do know is that snowfall efficiency is determined by two things: temperature (amount of cold) and lift (which brings in the moisture and determines where snow grows). These two things are linked. Moist air is lifted high up into the atmosphere, and the cold temperature allows moist air to grow onto ice crystals (I think this is called deposition?). We don't want too little cold air where the lift sets up (-5 to -10°C) where snow forms because everything about snow growth is generally slower. The moist air doesn't grow onto the ice crystals quickly enough to turn into snowflakes. This causes a domino effect: ice crystal growth is slower so the "snowflakes" don't have time to really grow before they fall out of the snow growth zone, which also makes it harder for them to stick together, and what you see is usually more needle like. No dendrites. We also don't want too much cold air where the lift sets up (-20 to -25°C) because that'll mean there won't be enough moisture to grow snowflakes efficiently, so you'll see pixie dust. If, however, if lift sets up at the DGZ (-12 to -18°C), for some reason ice crystal formation is quickest (I have no idea why). This leads to bigger snowflakes in a shorter amount of time, which induces dendritic growth, or where snowflakes start clinging together. That's why you see those baseball sized beauties fall from the sky. So generally, where lift sets up is where the snow growth zone sets up. Where lift sets up is where the temperature matters most for snow growth. Afterwards, temps below the snow growth zone shouldn't matter much unless it's above freezing (then we might talk about sleet/freezing rain). Hoped this helps. And if I'm wrong anywhere, let me know!

00z Euro kuchera map...

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MRX mentioning the potential for some high ratio snow next weekend and close to record breaking cold. By Friday, troughing to the northwest will deepen and become more broad with the Arctic high reaching 1045mb or greater as it progresses into the Great Plains. There will also be focus in the Gulf and Atlantic where a strong system is expected to develop and track up the coast through the weekend. Based on the latest data, this track continues to keep impacts well to our east. However, as the Arctic high expands into the area, moisture may be sufficient for light snow Friday into Saturday. QPF totals currently looks to be light, but the extent of cold air suggests snow ratios would be high. Regardless, the more significant impact will be another expansion of bitterly cold air, potentially worse than we are currently seeing. Ensemble data suggests 850mb temperatures to drop below -15 Celsius, possibly even near -20 Celsius. Values this low are nearing record values and certainly not seen with regularity. Highs on Saturday may struggle to get out of the teens for many with single digits for some a couple of nights. Saturday and Sunday will likely be below freezing area-wide, at a minimum. So any snow that does fall could be here for a few days.

As an onlooker from outside the area perusing, I think I’m losing my mind reading your posts. Any storm that gives ORH and BOS 22”+ is going to be remembered by many.

EPS mean still delivers a few inches snow - ratio's probably higher than 10:1 - liquid QPF Map - don't have access to snow map

14.7/5.2

euro ai good for far eastern areas, heartbreaking elsewhere.

16.9

2m temps means something but it is much more about what goes on upstairs. Need Bob Chill or one of the Mets to explain this better than I could, lol. It's something about the DGZ, Dendritic Growth Zone or something like that. Remember the last storm in Virginia? Ground temps in the low teens? Sleet falling in 13 degree temperatures and people saying this is so ridiculous? It was all about what was happening upstairs. I think it was because of a strong warm layer at about 700mb or something like that over top of the incredibly frigid airmass over the Mid Atlantic that caused the warm layer to dump rainfall that froze into sleet pellets because it was so damn COLD in the boundary layer. Or something like that. I really should leave this to degreed Mets or qualified hobbyists like bncho or Bob Chill or PSU or even SnowinOutThere. He needs a red tag stat. I sure don't. All I am, is an old man, all played out, can't even dig snow anymore, can hardly walk on ice down here in Texas without falling and smashing my low back to smithereens, snow weenie lmao.

Temps teens and low 20's Sat could be 20:1 ratios no?

ECM reminds me of March 1-2 1980, heavy snow Norfolk and Virginia Beach. 5" to DC, traces to se PA-c NJ. Clear and very cold further north. I am not endorsing it, just saying that's what it looks like.

If it's like this on 12z Wednesday then it's probably cooked, but I want to see how the recon data affects the modeling output.