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77° / 41° under clear blue skies. Doesn't get much better.

Euro apparently showing the HEAT mid-month with GFS getting warmer, too.

Chamber of Commerce Top 5 day!

Thank you Tip, I enjoyed the Op Ed. As a cement bound URI blessed denizen of the coastal plain I credit you with, sadly, a most accurate description of my cool/cold season, “four months of Autumn”. On the coastal plain this is less likely to be tongue-in-cheek. Unfortunately, as described by Hawkeye Pierce that Crab Apple Junction Maine has a white Christmas, beginning October 31st may also be less likely, nowadays. Still……. When the first real cold and threat of frozen, a flake, a mix and maybe accumulation appears, our local media, as do our forums, whoosh into a joyous anticipation. i, personally, find solace, in a calm warm summer night with gently falling showers. “Speak to me softly, like the rain” …… I still try to listen. As always…..

June 3 1955: Seven people are killed on Lake Traverse when their boat is overturned by strong winds from a thunderstorm. For Wednesday, June 3, 2026 1921 - A cloudburst near Pikes Peak CO killed 120 people. Pueblo CO was flooded by a twenty-five foot crest of the Arkansas River, killing 70 persons. Fourteen inches of rain was reported at Boggs Flat, where a hard surface road through nearly level country was washed out to a depth of seven feet. (The Weather Channel) 1959 - Thunderstorms in northwestern Kansas produced up to eighteen inches of hail near Salden during the early evening. Crops were completely destroyed, and total damage from the storm was about half a million dollars. Hail fell for a record eighty-five minutes. The temperature dropped from near 80 degrees prior to the storm to 38 degrees at the height of the storm. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Six days of flooding in South Texas culminated with five to six inch rains from Bexar County to Bandera County, and five to nine inches rains in Gonzalez and Wilson Counties. Total crop damage was estimated at 500 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in southern Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Port Isabel, and wind gusts to 83 mph at South Padre Island. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed from the Southern Plateau Region to the Northern High Plains. Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing over the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon hours produced severe weather into the night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 169 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Newcastle, OK, and Wilson, OK. Softball size hail was reported at Monahans, Childress and Groesbeck TX. Monahans TX reported six million dollars damage. Five inches of rain deluged Geronimo OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

There is some child-like novelty to the first snow and holiday snows, and occasionally interesting events, otherwise its just a beat down of darkness and nasty

The EPS in particular seems to have a westward lean on the OLR map, which would push the RMM mean into the COD. I see less of a signal of this on the GEFS.

Yes. Precipitation wasn't the problem. The region was flooded with too much warmth. It will be interesting to see how things unfold with the upcoming super El Niño.

Op ed. I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh. But what's ironic is that there are fantastic summer events to track - this is after all a weather-related forum ( yeah...right). The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. To that I would suggest the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting. But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well. We've had slow summers. Sure. This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, be we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer. More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter. Although lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic. This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen. To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness. Okay. To each is his or her own. One's preference is one's preference. And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens. Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a more revealing female population ... Disc Golf, standard Golf, boogie-boarding in the surf. None of which can happen between January 5th and that teleconnector maybe-ims for late month that gets can-kicked to February 17th, and ends up screwing someone for some reason. But at least it's dark by 4pm

43 this morning. Another great night sleep, with windows open. Natural a.c, can't beat it.

Bear break-in. These guys are tenacious.

Through May this has been our coldest start to a year since 2015. We should finally see some above normal temperatures starting tomorrow and peaking at around 90 degrees by Saturday. We then see some increasing chances of showers by Saturday night with temperatures cooling back to near normal levels by next Monday.

Through May this has been our coldest start to a year since 2015. We should finally see some above normal temperatures starting tomorrow and peaking at around 90 degrees by Saturday. We then see some increasing chances of showers by Saturday night with temperatures cooling back to near normal levels by next Monday.

Any thoughts to why we still seem to be crashing hard in Phase 7 to COD/weak 8 for MJO? We saw this in 23/24 as well.

This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.

Far superior to arguing 38 or 43 nastiness in January.. or better, coating or 1-2" what a waste

Beautiful weather for summer

Very good job by the modeling of predicting this big WWB well in advance just like they did back in April:

I think this is manifesting as a weakened mid latitude cell via destructive interference. The westward leaning convection results in downstream mid latitude trough, which then results in subsidence downstream of the trough. Where the subsidence is occurring, it competes with where we expect a mid latitude trough from Nino influenced convection over the equator. So the end result is generally a weakened aleutian low as it must compete from subsidence caused by upstream troughing. The long range GEFS starts to bring these troughs closer together, more of what we’d expect in a Nino with a broad mid latitude cell extending east of the dateline.

And then, we go right back to potential near record heat by the 12th-13th according to some of models.

Models continue building a Strong Aleutian ridge in the long range

39F to 67F by 9:40am. Fast recovery.

Low of 57. Wind kept up most of the night which kept us from bottoming out. Chilly walk this morning with the wind.

I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980: 1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018 I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8. The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small. Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.