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thats another problem here because the forum apparently extends from Ocean County all the way up to lower New York State and into eastern PA and CT., Long Island

I will leave the upper level analysis to people who know more about it, but the precip shield and mix line moved South at least 50 miles at 78h

Precip shield responded to the confluence and is slightly south as well.

Correct.

Better! More west to east and not sw to ne shield

I actually like what I saw for when the Nam is worth a damn prior to 60 hrs. I consider those meaningful changes based on what you and I outlined.

78 18z NAM

yes.

I mean, yeah..NAM blah blah...but I dunno. Looks good to me?

As far as bad model runs of the long range NAM go... maybe I'm squinting at it too hard, but I'm actually not seeing too much of a SE shift. Obv the nuiance of this kind of shit is lost on me but the low is also deeper no? Or is that not a worthy indicator of anything

6. 6z and 18z data are off runs.

All sleet south of the snow vs. the freezing rain seen by other models.

Would someone be so kind as to explain what it is we are rooting for as these new models are coming in - More/less confluence? More/less spacing? Phasing? I can’t tell if I should be excited or disappointed

Very much further south at 72

Not much changed in the 18z NAM at the end though it is a tad colder.

You think having unlimited reactions would be a mod perk amirite?

NAM surface at 75

there is a banter thread and I think debating opinions is fine - but draw the line at trying to bully someone telling them to stop posting or name calling

Who's right on the edge.... central NJ or the city or LI..... I'm 30 miles north of the CITY. So explain who you mean by WE ARE?

The GFS has not been good lately relative to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET. I don't trust it at all, especially when it's an outlier. I like the ECM-AI as a model - it's a little less amped than the other 3 so it gives me some encouragement.

and 78

72 18z NAM

Slightly flatter look so far. Everything helps

NAM is going to be at least a SLIGHT improvement from what I've seen in the main thread

If the 0 degree line is hugging LI like that very good chance some sleet makes it into NYC/LI and even southern Westchester and Coastal CT. The models other than the NAM tend to underestimate sleet.