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Concerning low CAPE and high shear, look at what happened on 4/1/2023 in DE. WxWiz in disbelief and CoastalWx proby "MEH!" LOL. https://x.com/riotrogerriot/status/1642347623733444609 This is a full-blown tornadic supercell, but it doesn't look like one b/c the CAPE was low and shear very high. The CB is tilted over almost 90 deg! 500-1000 CAPE this day, but want to know what the 0-6 km shear was? 100 kt! This storm produced a long-tracked EF3. Isolated storm all by itself in the Delmarva. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4esg-DNoO5s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyVPX7-ZHhw Other cells this day in DC area (I witnessed personally), they were just like this, so ridiculously titled over, they did not look like CBs, just a TCU cloud line. The rain/hail from these storms was *way* downwind (5+ mi) from the rear updraft base (it was hard to tell these bases existed b/c of the extreme tilt!). One my co-workers who lives near BWI reported he just started getting 1/2" hail and no rain falling, or any idea there was a storm near b/c of the odd storm orientation and no LTG/T. Something you'd more typically see in the Plains or Desert SW. Quite atypical for the East Coast, but it shows it can happen. And what do we have coming up for Thu? Quite atypical. "Hope floats" WxWiz!

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the northwestern Gulf. Surface observations do not show very strong winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held at 25 kt. This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away from the center of the low. Given that there has been no noticeable increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little change in the track model guidance. The system is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast track shows the disturbance or storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast during the next day or so. Then the system is likely to go back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant change has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus solution. The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters and upper-level divergence. However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which should limit strengthening up to landfall. The NHC forecast continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 27.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Adams

Yes, this is a significant concern. Too much shear and not enough instability. You can get "cannonball CU" -- the building CU gets sliced by shear and you get part of the CU horizontally shooting downwind abruptly w/ a small cloud trail back to the other part of the CU! However, this go/no go for any CB here "winning" or "loosing" is a fine line. If any CB can get established (more upright instead of titled over 45 deg or more!), the mesocyclone should be intense, and then CAPE does not matter nearly as much. It's why you can have as little 100-200 CAPE and get sig tors. Most often this is in a TC situation, but it can happen in an ET low situation. CB updrafts are maintained extremely well despite low CAPE due to dynamic pressure perturbations induced by the mesocyclones. It also is why when an intense supercell moves into a stable (no CAPE) air mass, it can still produce tors for a little while longer b/c the intense mesocyclone present just doesn't go "poof!" The ante Thursday here is high here either way. It will definitely be a wicked nowcast situation watching storm development and evolving

Loved the sky today, so many storm clouds encircling. Saw multiple anvils, a quick t-storm just 1 flash, then cloudy til 10pm when we got our delayed 1mm of rain. Multi lines in SON today.

Today's Highs: EWR: 80 New Brnswck: 78 LGA: 78 TEB: 78 PHL: 78 BLM: 77 ACY: 77 NYC: 76 TTN: 76 JFK: 75 ISP: 74

I would caution this does not always work well. June 2, 1990 has a big tor outbreak in the Great Lakes/Midwest/OH Valley w/ IN getting absolutely crushed w/ 37 tor in the state (more than the 1974 Superoutbreak). 66 tor in this event w/ 7 F4s, and forecasts were big for NY/PA and New England for June 3, and a complete bust. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1990_Lower_Ohio_Valley_tornado_outbreak

our willpower is working

Timing is ideal and HRRR/RRFS show decent cells/lines! CBs in that kind of shear are likely going to do "something." I put it this way, "to have such a deep sfc low move over srn Quebec w/ those kinds of warm sector wind fields in June?, prove it to me something big will not happen!" We do not have set ups like this very often, so the full range of what can happen we really don't know. And this set up odd in itself b/c through the roof shear and low CAPE, but it not during the cool season! One thing about EMLs. 700-500 *only* can be misleading. Take a look at the IAD sounding 00z 6/14 I attached. 700-500 is crappy at 5.7 C/km, but compress that layer just a bit, and the max is 7.2 C/km...EML! I needed to inform CoastalWx about this, and he learned something new today!

That would reverse jinx a monster F4 cruising just south of the tower.

^I can never get U of Del Air Temp working on the correlation composite. Is there a secret to it? June will likely be the 5th straight month of -PNA (CPC). I've found that the correlation roll forwards are weak for what happens later in the year, surprisingly.

That's the issue w/ AI models. They can't handle outlier events or set ups well, so they underdo things. Also, AI overdoing it is possible as you noted above. No a one-side problem I bet (non-linear factors). I keep hearing, "AI will get better." Well, isn't that the case for all types of modelling w/ time? And the notion that AI is improving so fast acting like it will solve all problems? All the AI advancement in the world is meaningless if you don't have many outlier events/analogs for it to pull from! And since outlier events are rare, progress in AI forecasts should be very slow. I would argue physics-based models will advance faster as they improve w/ time and in situ/remote observations get better globally for improved model initialization.

In any given situation, the worst-case scenario is the least likely to happen in the mean. The notion, "better safe than sorry" is a weasel line to give an excuse to always go w/ the worst-case scenario. Also, "we are saving lives!" Forecasts and awareness has become so good in recent decades, one can't hide behind that as an excuse anymore. Lives are lost now more IMHO b/c people have become numb and apathetic to the relentless hype. They have no idea what to believe, so many just tune it all out. That ends up costing lives when a truly exceptional event (worst-case) occurs, and it's made even worse b/c the exceptional events are greatest risk to lives. I admit though this is an extremely complex social issue, among other things, and no easy way to figure out what works best. One thing i will stand by solid though. "more [warnings/alerts} is not always better!"

For anyone wondering - June is a pretty canonical -PNA pattern so far. Not PDO or ENSO driven. Despite the rumor that +PNA = +ENSO, it's never really been true in the Summer. CPC has the PNA as so weak in the Summer that is just has -- for PNA correlations to ENSO - not 0, not -0.87 or +0.33 actual blanks. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jun.txt -PNA June = Cold NW, Hot SW. Green on the lower map is positive correlation (-PNA = cold, +PNA = warm) while blues are opposite correlation (-PNA = warm, +PNA = cold). You can see the neutral spot over the Southeast shows up as well.

Snowfall measuring practices were not completely standardized until the mid 1990s, even for long-term climate sites, and NYC is not immune to this issue. I think I have said this before, but generally, snowfall was underestimated prior to the NWS MAR in the 1990s. Some sites would only measure new snow *depth* once the storm was done, and call that the total. Other would melt a column of SOG, and then multiple by 10 for the snow total (blasphemy for the uber weenies!). Of all primary wx measurements we do, snowfall is by far the most inaccurate and variable in our record. Even today, there are fundamental challenges that make it hard at times to get an actual accurate amount.

Just call in sick. No one will suspect a thing.

North of I-70 usually does well. My area down here gets split a lot. There have been many times I am watching radar and it crosses over 340 splits in my area and then the line reconnects to my East near 270.

Sure. But I can still look forward to Fall. Summer sucks if its going to be a veritable desert.

That 34" in NJ. That's only, what, 1" from the record for the state set in the Bliz of 96? Blasphemy the 1947 event is called "Boxing Day Blizzard," at least for Scott. All he ever talks about is the 2010 blizzard for Boxing Day! LOL.

I don't know whats gonna happen tomorrow but almost everything thats come through behind that quick line of precip around 2pm has been full on hook and ladder. I don't think I've seen so many wall clouds at once. I mean every updraft was spinning out of the gate. I watched 5 wall clouds and one funnel without moving lol. Crazy stuff.

Temperatures will again top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week. A shower or thundershower is possible on Thursday No heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -3.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.250 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1 (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

in this case, not any specifics, but I’m better than 50/50 that cool ‘potential’ before the end of June, we are in back below normal, is subjected to being modified ….how much so remains to be seen… And that bigger heat’s likely returned by July 1 … which means it could even be earlier

ACATT

I saw a truck with "f* summer" decal -snowmobile and skidoo on opposing side...surely someone who posts here

And you're confident at 360 hours?