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6z Euro looked real good for 12/27

He gone

Even our brief Nino a couple years ago didn’t seem to really get the STJ going for any amount of time. Hopefully next year’s will

The 0z Euro, 0z CMC, and 6z GFS all move a trough into the East which looks to possibly have some staying power. The CMC is much quicker and the GFS is the slowest. But they all get tend get to a similar point. Starting to be concerned the Music City Bowl is going to be cold.

Maybe ice/ snow 26-28

End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though.

That’s what these models seem to do now…every system this seems to happen. Back and forth…up to the day before. As you said, 1-3” and call it a forecast.

Still a huge discrepancy in sensible wx between Euro and GFS for Boxing Day, but the cold press has been gradually trending on the GFS. Euro would be impactful verbatim.

Torrential snow continues and has been pouring down at Palisades all night. It is pretty. But it is all for Naught. It is all melting on contact. Might as well be heavy rainfall. Western ski resorts are done after this winter, probably even before the winter is finished. La Nina is pushing record amounts of Pacific Puke across the mountain ranges along with very warm airflow, resulting in temps just mild enough for 'Mid Atlantic Classic Snow Futility' that ensures DC-like results, every time with every storm there this entire winter. Results: Slush on ground. Terrible to ski on. Tremendous lost revenue. Ski resorts must shut down; if anything it's because of insurance concerns. Just enough snow to tease everyone, but not enough to ski on safely, due to spicyness/dangerous obstacles like boulders, logs, smaller rocks, etc etc. Brown/Gray outright yucky depressional epically GRINCH Christmas and a horribly UNHAPPY UNPROFITABLE New Year for the western ski resorts as disgruntled customers begin shouting for refunds, even rioting. The UGLY specter of record million-year landslides/rockslides sweeping many right off roads on their way home from record rains on the mountains/hypersaturated soils/loosened rocks, trees, debris, etc etc.

I see it GaWx. A whole lot would have to come together in that scenario but at least it’s something to watch. .

If it snows to our south again before we get snow (based on last nights model run), I give up

Today back in 2016 held a different vibe n GC.

Wdym? All I was saying that I’m waiting until the weeklies are more consistent for at least a few days instead of flip flopping. Only then I’ll think there’s some credibility to their forecasts.

Yup RRFS has now joined the NAM rankings .. although seems like every model is flip flopping around with this one .. I think you just paint a 1-3” across all the northeast and see what happens lol

Is this year 3 of drought? Before this dry period it was wet for a few years but that didn't help snow totals lol

Can you please REMOVE me from THAT Xmas card list?? LOL..thanks in advance!!

This has to be the most extreme -WPO +EPO dipole that we have seen in December. Lead to the unusually strong ridge out West with the -PNA for such a strong -WPO. Record Pacific Jet and historic flooding in the Pacific Northwest. Strong December -WPO 500 mb composite more -EPO snd weaker Western U.S. ridge

Years

We can’t seem do get out of this liquid drought. Stj has been dead for months

Yeah that continues to be the period to keep an eye on. Various op runs have had a snow/mix event for the MA/NE the last few days. Weakish signal on the Ens runs.

Doesn't look like anything worth looking at the next 10 days, unfortunately. Can't complain about this December though.

Wafting too much TB there. We ogle at the 06z RRFS. Still see no change in my thoughts 24hrs ago.

Still a window

Hunga Tonga volcano assessment report is out. Large effect on stratosphere but relatively small effect at surface: Professor Maycock said, "The Report shows that although water vapor is a greenhouse gas, Hunga had a net cooling effect overall and did not cause the record level of global warming observed in 2023 and 2024. This is a very important finding as understanding what caused the recent surge in global warming is a priority for the climate science community." https://phys.org/news/2025-12-international-reveals-atmospheric-impact-hunga.html https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1049154/files/Hunga_APARC_Report_full.pdf?version=1

Yeah that 00Z run was completely cracked out and unrealistic. We had a similar type nuisance event almost to the day 4 years ago, Dec 24th, 2021. Similar NW-SE track and qpf trajectory, though interior MA should certainly see more snow than that one. I think we're all just tired of these and foaming at the mouth for a region wide warning event to satiate our snowless appetites.