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Rank Year Overall Match Reason 1 1997–98 Best Strongest blend of rapid onset, strong SOI/MEI coupling, Niño 3.4 surge, and eastern-Pacific warmth 2 2015–16 Very High Strong basinwide/very strong El Niño analog; excellent intensity match 3 1982–83 High Major historical El Niño; slightly slower early-summer SST match but excellent peak analog 4 1972–73 High Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog 5 2023–24 Moderate-High Good recent transition/eastern-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling/intensity than 2026 appears headed 6 1957–58 Moderate-High Strong El Niño year; useful secondary analog 7 1991–92 Moderate Decent atmospheric/coupled analog, but weaker structure 8 2002–03 Moderate Developing El Niño analog, but less intense 9 1965–66 Moderate Useful older warm-event analog with eastern-Pacific elements 10 2009–10 Lower-Moderate El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development

Maybe someone was in there pruning :-) If it could only stay like that for the other 125 days in the warm months rather than veering 2-5 (7) lower.

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is

This enso is closer match to 2015 / 1997 - August will be interesting to see 2015 very warm/hot/ dry, 1997 cool/ drier. EWR: Monthly ; Dep ; Rain 2026: May: 64.5 ; +1.2 ; 2.43 June: 72.8 ; +2.4 ; 2.52 Jul: Aug: 1997: May: 59.2 ; -4.1; 3.12 June: 71 ; -1.8 ; 2.42 Jul: 76.8; -1.4 ; 7.05 Aug: 73.6 ; -2.8 ; 2.89 Sep: 66.9 ; -2.3 ; 2.12 Oct: 56.5; -1 ; 2.02 2015: May: 68.2; +4.9 ; 4.94 Jun: 72 ; -0.8; 5.9 Jul: 79; +0.8 ; 2.69 Aug: 78.7 ; +2.3 ; 1.4 Sep: 74.3 ; +4.2 ; 2.33 Oct: 57.2 ; -0.3 ; 3.72

No nyc temp crying the past few days when they were the same or on the higher end of the area. I guess there is only an issue "certain" cherry picked days.

Hottest ever summer lolz!

Had a great day here of 29C/84F started overcast here too then it broke at 130pm. No rain or storms as shown by some - I think smoke is moving in this eve that was a close call! I was forest bathing and breathing in deeply after that nightmare 2 weeks ago.

I have heard that place is very good! Other half is picky, so haven't been. We ended up going in the afternoon after the clouds cleared out. Went to Roosevelt inlet around 3. Was nice, only a few Jellyfish

beers

S tier afternoon float

The fact that we are on our third set of hitting coaches in three years and still the same problem is very revealing. It's the entire Elias' system! Rubenstein annoyed me the other day with his public vote of confidence in Elias...but I am HOPING he was just saying that for PR since Elias was sitting right there, and the presser was about the Bradish extension. No way anybody with even the slightest clue can look at this and just run it back next year. He's gotta go...it's time!

JU-PLY ending JU-NIED

Today's Highs: New Brnswck: 86 TEB: 86 EWR: 85 PHL: 85 NYC: 85 LGA: 84 TTN: 84 ACY: 83 BLM: 82 ISP: 81 JFK: 80

the good news is July should average below normal for some now.. what a change

a little over 1" here on the 12z...whoop-de-do

We have had a long term -PDO/La Nina pattern, call it a decadal pattern 1998-2025. It seems to have strengthened since 2016, and now in 2026 it's diverging from the S. Hemisphere/equator and the Northern Hemisphere. Up until now you could have said it was either, ENSO or PDO. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expanding during the time makes me think it was more of a decadal ENSO phase. But now with the N. Pacific significantly diverging from the SOI/ENSO SSTs,,, maybe it's something else related to the PDO. Or my personal theory is cold northern Arctic Summers could have a lot do with it. We also had 100-year low Solar 2001-2020. The max during that time was weakest since the early 1800s.

Hmmm One would think that the rainfall would spin around the low. Straight North you say.

You know... that timeframe is interesting and it's funny you mentioned it as I was looking through the H300 PDO index numbers again. In the monthly data, that was actually the last time it was appreciably positive. During 97-98. Greater than +1. And before that too. At times after that it has been above 0 to about 0.5 including during 15-16 but always fell negative again. It remains negative as of now, well as of June's number which was -2. A curious thing to add to this though is the MEI. Which appears to be tracking most similarly to 97-98. There's that year again and a record event of it's own time. Almost seems like that was some kind of turning point of sorts and now here we are just about 30 years later looking at some really intriguing metrics. H3 PDO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/PDO_body.html MEI:

Elias needs to go and we need new hitting coaches. It really comes down to a bunch of clowns trying to run the show. Instead, they are running players into the ground. Insanely bad hitting this season. No way around it.

The good news with that set up is you pump humid air out ahead of it with good pwats and it won’t take much to tally up some quick appreciable rainfall in New England as the front lifts NEward. Though I haven’t looked close enough to see if it’s occluded by that point.

Agree with you.... 1.48 here for the entire month... Northern Waynesboro across the SNP into the western / northwestern areas of Albemarle is extremely dry and dusty now... Very very low water levels in the Moormans / Doyles river basins in north western Albemarle.... Not surprising thats where the extreme drought is still showing on the drought monitor... Loud thunder outside with zero rain again from a storm south of town where there have been repeated deluges this month...

I don’t think it’s a cop out. If it statistically argues so (which is absolutely does for the mid Atlantic) there’s no reason to pretend that it doesn’t.

Future's bleak

Wagons NW

No . You are thinking about early month . Nailed the last one as well