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It's the moon.

29.8, I hope we get some snow tomorrow morning.

Saw this and thought "GFS is hallucinating again", now I can't get that map and "Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds" out of my head. Groovy.

Last few GFS runs have been really neat. We're breaking the color chart. Yesterday's 00z gfs actually gave W Yellowstone 100" lol.

Our best chance to see some snow this month may be from a quick hitting Alberta Clipper or associated cold front. But of course we're talking light snow and nothing major. The trough is just too far east and the flow too flat. There isn't enough room or time for anything to really dig and slow down, gather moisture, and trigger a major winter storm as the maps look now. But it's early still and the models are not that good. Subtle adjustments and you just know they're going to happen could change things. We watch and wait. Most of my prior threat dates are now not so near misses. WX/PT

00z GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Nice looks like the call for a trimonthly of ~ -0.6 was a good call. Should continue to rise from here slowly. Unfortunately I do not think this will be an 'official' La Nina based on ONI numbers but darn close like last year. Still liking my call of about the week of Christmas into the new year being the warm up time frame leaving the tail end of phase 8 into 1. Here is an updated subsurface from beginning of October to December 1st. Also @donsutherland1 I'm still working on chatting with you about RONI. I may just create a different thread and tag you instead of keeping it in this one, we will see. Hope to be done by this weekend. Work and life just taking precedence right now unfortunately.

Calm yourself Mr. Complainer, nobody said it is always right, plus is it Friday already?.

See? Euro ain't always right!

why can't we ever have every model it always has to flip flop around

Just brutal. I’m going to cry.

I’m seeing roughly 2-4” of new snow projected along the spine of the Greens through tomorrow with a bit more at elevation and a bit less in the lower valleys, but it looks like the snow starts tomorrow morning and lasts into tomorrow night. A quick scroll through the most recent run of the GFS shows 7 to 9 potential systems in the queue out through mid-month or so. A couple of them look a little warm, but the mountains will do their thing and get snow as long as there aren’t any heavily wound up systems passing to our west. That’s the beauty of a somewhat safe “zonal” flow. It’s not a textbook Northern Greens bread and butter pattern showing very discrete clippers lined up, but it’s certainly in that neighborhood and it looks like there are a lot of systems poised to come through. Now that we’re into December, average snowfall here in the valley is jumping up to 1 to 2 inches per day, and that means probably 2 inches per day for the local mountains, so that’s sort of the average baseline snowfall to think about. As it stands on the modeling, the GFS shows 2 to 3 feet of projected accumulation for the mountains at 10:1 SLR through the next couple of weeks, which would probably be about an average pace. That’s with the caveat of course that some of that projection is at long lead time and SLR ratios might be substantially higher than 10:1 depending on how much upslope snow is in the mix.

well we got the two major short-range models (HRRR and NAM) in exchange for the Euro.

One last post before I call it a night. Something that I thought was a fun demonstration of how moistening the atmosphere truly works was this snapshot of the HRRR at 2am Friday. I really love how you can see the actual snowfall hitting the ground earliest along the spine of Shenandoah because the couple 1000 feet elevation they have compared to the surrounding areas means that there is less dry air between the clouds and the ground. It's fun to then see this reflected by it showing snow hitting the ground instead of sublimating. Dewpoint depression shows how the higher up you go the more moisture is making it to the surface as the lower values are found almost identically to an elevation map. None of this actually has a sensible impact on our weather or forecasts (though it does explain that the Shenandoah maximum in this storm is less the result of orthographic lift but instead this dry air quirk) but instead just a fun exercise to show how moistening the column works from the top down elevation wise. I will be sure to this run to show my mountain meteorology/climate near the ground professor as I feel that they'd appreciate it.

Surprise inch of fluffy snow ahead of the arctic front. 7.9" season to date. We are nickel and diming away to start 2025-26.

Baby steps!!

It's all good bro.

Kind of a shame to see that nice weekend clipper quickly crap the bed as it enters Iowa. Hopefully the models are too quick to crap it.

0z GEFS 50% stronger signal than 18z

Here is the ring. Anyone want to take a stab at why this formed? Ice crystals?

Yeah, with the addition of this latest round of snow from Winter Storm Chan, I was expecting the ski conditions to take another bump upward. With that in mind, I definitely wanted to get out for some turns to see what this new snow had done, so I headed up to Bolton Valley for a tour this morning. I was a little worried when I saw temperatures in the single digits F as I neared the top of the Bolton Valley Access Road, but I got out of the car in the Village parking lot and found that it was very comfortable. With full sunshine, zero wind, and dry air, it felt like the temperature was in the 20s F. For new snow accumulations, there did seem to be some elevation dependence in the Bolton Valley area. In terms of settled new snow depths this morning, I measured 3-4” at the Timberline Base at 1,500’, and up at 2,000’ in the Village I found roughly 4-5”, similar to what I’d measured for accumulations down at our house in the valley. Those new snow depths definitely increased as one went up toward 3,000’, but it was hard to tell exactly how much snow was new with the powder from previous rounds of snow also sitting atop the old base. The Bolton Valley Snow Report is indicating 5-6” new for today, and that would easily make sense above 2,000’, especially since I was there in the morning after settling. This snow fell light and dry around here, in line with what a lot of folks have been saying. My liquid analyses for Winter Storm Chan down at our site revealed an average snow density of approximately 6% H2O, and that’s a fantastic ratio for powder skiing as long as you have enough of it and its fallen into an appropriately right-side-up snowpack. Thankfully, the accumulations from this storm are bolstered by the accumulations from the past couple of systems, so in areas that haven’t been touched in the past week, I was finding powder depths of around a foot. All you had to do was seek out that untouched snow and you could reel in some fantastic powder turns. The total liquid equivalent in the surface snow above the base isn’t enough for bottomless turns on high-angle terrain just yet, but it was game on for moderate and low-angle terrain. I was on my 115 mm fat boards, and they easily floated me in those terrain areas. And boy, the Bolton Valley faithful definitely got after it early this morning. I was out there in probably the 8-9 AM range, and all the middle terrain on the common descent routes on Wilderness had been skied. There was still plenty of untracked powder along the trail edges and off the beaten path, but people had really been out early in numbers. In Bolton’s case, the resort doesn’t start full 7-day operation until next week, so I bet some folks who might have opted for lift-served skiing went touring today instead. But this storm did hit the valleys quite well and announce itself, so that could have been another factor in people getting out to the mountain.

Hard not to have that feeling actually especially with the way autumn played out.

UKMET is very similar to 18z as well. 00z is a lot of holds trajectory wise, with some dryness.

Not sure about islip. But northwest Suffolk got a period of light snow last night. I’m in commack

WWA maybe by 9am tomorrow from Wakefield? 1-3" RVA