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The data has to come from somewhere. Find the source and let Claude do the rest.

This site has some great stuff I use all the time: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/basins.html?basin=al-24 The year over year shear is something Lowry does. Wish I knew how. His data visualization stuff is great. A lot of good stuff here too: https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/products.html

Showers North of Philly moving South . Mostly cloudy here. Stubborn clearing with this system

WB CFS 30 day average for Dec-Jan.

The generally NN/BN weather this month after the mega torch to start has almost erased the AN anomalies for the month at the 3 airports. +0.7 BWI +0.9 DCA +1.7 IAD As of yesterday

Great stuff, are all these plots from the University of Miami. I love these wind shear/instability plots

If the EPS mean pans out, it will be a record or near-record SLP for August as it is sliding across central Illinois. Record in that area is 1001-1002mb and EPS mean is hovering around that. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/AugustRecordLowSLPs.gif

pop up showers everywhere now-just had one roll through-storm just doesnt want to die

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues. Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well off the East Coast or north of the Antilles seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years.

I received 14.13 inches of rain for July. Without looking at my records, I believe the last time I received 14 inches of rain or more, may have been back in October, 2005.

kick that to the curb, at least here.

Based on all that I’ve read, the role of CC in overall wildfire frequency/avg size is complex. One thing it is doing is increasing the green-ness of the Earth overall, which is a good thing but which itself also increases amount of fuel for burning. Also, where it is causing drier conditions on average, that along with heat increases fire danger. But wildfire stats, depending on what you examine, don’t necessarily show that wildfires have increased over the decades and in some cases have shown marked decreases. Some of that is likely due to better firefighting resources.

Doesn't look like a late July satellite image, more like early Fall.

Moderate shower here

Related but unrelated - thanks for this site. This event seems to be a once-in-100-years type deal for Montgomery County... but yikes! That same night, there was also an F3 that crossed most of Frederick from E of Brunswick, NW of the city, up to Taneytown. Similar in intensity to the 9/24/2001 F3 that hit the route 1 Corridor in PGC.

1.34…. Today was a dud

Idk what these radar echoes are even doing anymore. There’s literally echoes moving away from Winni while some just to the west are going in the opposite direction. In the end the vector is away from the coop and lake.

Fortunately, you’ll have that this winter when you’re the only one getting frozen.

Even down here the dewpoints are actually down to 66-67! That’s the lowest I’ve seen quite possibly all month. Temp is 93.3 here vs 100.5 exactly 24 hrs ago (high was 101.1). Skies still have ugly haze with only a few clouds. Winds are light/variable vs yesterday’s hot SW winds.

Re: "Wildfire swept" - I hope people don't think that's due to CC. Because if so - look what Europe as a whole shows: It's an extremely low wildfire year across Europe as a whole. https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.statistics/seasonaltrend

Time for a GYX only subforum

Everyone had enough of the rain? I know I have. Unfortunately it looks like more in the coming weeks

Used to do some night skiing back in the 70s when I was at URI.

I remember seeing that place on the ski reports back in the day. What a name lol.