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That, and more. You think all these "core" players are gonna be here in 2-3 years? Basallo? probably. They made the investment. I wouldn't put my money on the rest, for multiple reasons. You don't want to accept it, but a rebuild is needed.

We don't need a rebuild. The talent is not the problem here...the organizational system is. There are reports of similar issues in the minors too. Not talent, but...philosophy. Gunnar, Holliday, Adley, Basallo...they would all do well elsewhere almost immediately and we'd all be wondering ehy they couldn't do that here. This is why a full tear-down would be a big mistake imo--why do another torturous 3-5 years when there is another option that could fix things in a year or two?

Was looking at the models for tomorrow and I think we could be in for a surprise. The setup has 3000+ CAPE on both the NAM and the HRRR (maintains low 70s dewpoints). Additionally, there is a shortwave that nears our region to put us in divergence aloft from 4-6pm west to east. However, this shortwave also appears to draw in a time sensitive increase in our 0-6 shear to 20-30 knots, while that still isn't good for severe storms it opens the door to having some level of organization. To add onto this factor is that the HRRR shows a small lee trough develop during the afternoon hours which causes a decently curved hodograph for the lower levels. To reiterate its nothing insane, but might be a sneaky day for supercellular storms to form and rotate. The HRRR and NAM both show storm relative helicity values for 0-3km of around 100 as well. Typical mid-atl caveats apply (our ML lapse rates suck) and I'm not saying this will be some crazy day, but just that it shouldn't be slept on. @vortex95 would love to know your/any other mets/wannabe mets thoughts. Below is the HRRR and NAM sounding, can see the difference the lee trough makes with the HRRR having that curved hodograph.

I agree strongly. Out of the last 10 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs, which goes back to 1982-3, 90% (9) had all 3 months +0.25+! The only one that didn’t was the last one, 2023-4. That one still had 2 of the 3 at +0.25+ with Feb at +0.09. March of ‘24 went back up to +0.45. Since 1982-3, 90% (9) of Marches were +0.25+ with only March of 2003 not as it was neutral (-0.07). In contrast to 1982-3+, only 1 of the prior 7 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs had all 3 months at +0.25+!

Dismantle front office from top to bottom

For most of the past decade we've had cold West/warm East setups nationally when the subsurface is warming rapidly. You can sort of see it earlier in the month when it was very cold in the West near the peak of the current subsurface warming burst. I think its pretty likely late winter the subsurface heat will collapse quite rapidly, and so it should get fairly cold/stormy in the East at that point. Whether that's mid-Jan, mid-Feb, or mid-Mar makes all the difference. The first bit of research I ever did on El Nino was regarding March heavy snows locally. From 1931 to 2014, we never had any March with over 3-4 inches of snow in low-solar conditions and without El Nino. The last high solar El Nino March was 2014-15, and we had...9.6 inches of snow on Feb 26-28, with the mountains getting 50-100 inches in five days in late Feb/early March. 2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20 were not high solar, and failed on the heavy March snow, and then 2023-24 failed as well (although honestly, March 2023 was more El Nino-ish by the subsurface +0.84 v. --0.54 in March 2024 and it snowed quite a bit in March 2023 throughout the Southwest. Remember the blizzard warnings in San Diego County?) If we get a warm subsurface and high solar in March 2027, I'll be on the lookout for blizzard/heavy snow risks throughout the Southwest. It used to happen in almost every high solar El Nino March. But recent El Ninos have either died too early or lacked high solar. We've had up to 14 inches of snow in March here, but never more than 3.5 in a non-high solar March, its literally 10x more common to get heavy March snow here with v. without it (>3", since average is 1.5" last century, and under 1.0" past 30 years). Mar-Apr 1973 locally had over 22 inches of snow, following only 15 inches in Oct-Feb, its the best winter here after 1914-15. My guess is the WPO/PNA/EPO/NAO/AO will all be pretty volatile compared to traditional expectations if the warmth is far enough east and warm enough by magnitude relative to position. I'd really like to see what 30.0C+ waters in Nino 3/3.4 or even 1.2 would do honestly.

Man I should write to my VA state house rep to ask if they could ever make a program like this for my state.

That's cruel. That poor man was so hot and all he ever wanted, was some cool water. Tuco got his later, though.

We have a Winnah!

There are only 3 teams with a worse record in the shitty ass AL. Still a chance tho, so lets be buyers at the deadline! NFL preseason football just a few weeks away. Lets go Ravens! (Please find a center)

Like clockwork.

If it weren't for pitchers making awful mistakes, Mayo wouldn't be cranking the occasional long HRs. His swing has more holes than a goddamn golf course.

Remember, Mayo was one of Elias' coveted prospects. An untouchable who was off limits when it came to trade talks. Dismantle this fucking team from top to bottom.

Yet another pathetic Orioles effort. Mayo is gonna hit .179 with 20 HRs and 50 RBI lol. Gunnar cant buy a hit. God this team is awful.

Thinking back to the conversation earlier today I came across this. A worthwhile read https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/08/reading-crisis-postliterate-age/687618/?gift=URojiRC-naOWGBfsE7oNmha0OJUXq9hYgtDbh92KSCg

I’d argue against -PNA in general if we see less MC forcing. Even the extreme jet extensions under Eastern Pacific forcing are usually “bootleg” +PNA/+EPO as the Aleutian Low reaches the western US. Still mild for the NE. Then if forcing shifts back towards dateline, can get periods of +PNA/-EPO with actual cold air to work with.

this video is from vietnam, but there was, incredibly, another strong tornado in china a few days ago https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cq61d22ved2o

I'll believe it when I see it

82 here as well. No rain but not a bad day.

This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.

I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA.... I agree the polar domain will be crucial.

SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 352 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2026 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN BY VARIOUS QUALITY CONTROLLED OBSERVATIONS SYSTEMS FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. *************MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX (113F AND ABOVE)************* LOCATION MAXIMUM TIME/DATE COMMENTS HT INDEX MEASURED (DEG F) SOUTH CAROLINA ..BEAUFORT COUNTY BEAUFORT MCAS 114.0 256 PM 7/08 ASOS ..BERKELEY COUNTY HUGER 114.0 114 PM 7/08 MESONET WITHERBEE 113.0 1215 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL ..CHARLESTON COUNTY AWENDAW/WAMBW 116.0 147 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 114.0 308 PM 7/08 ASOS CHARLESTON EXE ARPT 113.0 1255 PM 7/08 AWOS DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 113.0 200 PM 7/08 OFFICIAL NWS OB. ..COLLETON COUNTY BENNETTS POINT 113.0 1200 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL

Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. I think the whole thing’s just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong warm ENSO event I guess they reserve the superlatives. But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably going thru based upon simple observation of the empirical temperature channels It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… there’s gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts.

No rain today, but it was a little drier and a bit cooler. My high temperature was 82. Storms are still firing along the Tennessee border so maybe a nighttime shower is ahead.

Man...radar looked like James City got slammed! Heard food lion there without power during storm! (Near bridge)