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my area got to 61 before sunrise, breaking a record of 59

Transient 50-50 lows are often not helpful outside of perfect timing/luck. Its simply a low moving through that location. A 50-50 low that is useful is part of a -NAO rex block, in which case it is quasi-stationary.

Been wondering about this...considering the lag in atmospheric effects we see, would we see a response that soon?

He's clearly going off today's Euro weeklies that could easily be substantially different in a few days. Fwiw, 18z Gefs are cold to end the run still.

Blame my edible, but gonna start a thread for next weekends storms. I’m gonna speak it into existence like Oprah said.

I was just thinking that we are entering the period where models sometimes lose systems or change them in some way only to come back 72 hours out or so. Something to do with wonky stakeouts data sometimes in the polar/ N. pac regions maybe? I also want to add that I’m sorry for what your going through Powell

I'm trusting PSU over JB any day of the week

Not even two people working overtime could possibly meet the same astronomical number of posts that guy was capable of.

Okay, let's try to do another good, informative post so TSSN thinks my account is still hacked. In my opinion, we're either going to get the January 15-16 storm, the January 18-20 storm, or we're going to get neither. The kicker poor wave spacing , while not helping our 15th system actually helps the second wave (for the 18-20th) as I think that the residual energy from the kicker helps with a stronger +PNA, helping slow down the jet stream so the original kicker can tilt negative and bam. This is getting the the end of my knowledge however so I'm not 100% whether this analysis is correct. If I'm wrong please correct me

Way out in lala land but a good look at the end of the GFS run. Arctic HP up top and another storm on the gulf coast. Could be a decent overrun event if it doesnt get squashed.

yeah i pretty much trust them more than anyone else lol. Some of our TV mets are pretty good too.

If correct, things might throw a wrench into a canonical nina Feb and we get yet another chance then.

seriously, dude is like the Jim Cramer of meteorology

I like it sliced

Heh … Finally got to see that 18 ZGFS That’s quite a CCB head it backs in there on the 15th/16th one

Book the blizzard. That dude is washed.

To be honest I trust the Pro Mets we have in here a hell of a lot more then I trust JB!

Yessir...You can buy it ground up like hamburger.

I am confused about MJO phases. Is there a good link anyone has? I thought Phase 1 was ok, but apparently it is warm in February at least with a La Niña..That is where he thinks we are headed the first two weeks of February.

DCA did reach 80F in January.

His ass too

JB also said a week ago that. It was gonna get brutally cold. Rivalling the 1985 brutal cold .. JB. Changes his tune every week lol . He's so inaccurate I don't even watch his videos anymore

I’m very high on the 15/16th. Think that’s our next snowfall SNE

Models are all over the place. At the point of taking just one week at a time, and if there is nothing there focus on something else, like doing my taxes....

A cutter?? Lol I doubt that