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Fall heat wave with approximately 17 deg F above normal coming up for northern Colorado.

Weeklies?

Nice coastal storms on the gfs

Sorry to hear about your loss. My condolences @RickinBaltimore

-2023 isn't a great analog because 1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is 2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be 3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0 ————— -2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based ——— -2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based ———— -2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

Was gonna respond to this with a plot I did years ago showing how the 500mb pattern over the east often reverses from October to DJF (eg east ridge winter after troughing in oct), but the plotting tool I’m using seems to be broken and I don’t have the time to try another tool. I also hadn’t broken it down between la nina and el nino years when I did it back then. What I meant was not only october snow, but the bigger picture of the overall pattern. But without the plots, I can’t make that case now. Oh well.

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

Well…in leftovers I think he meant another Rainey weekend for SNE, and that would be par for this spring, summer and now fall.

@vortex95 will learn. Winter is hand to hand and town to town combat around here. Michael, Ian, Laura, Ida, Helene, Milton...just to name a few. 3k Nammy has some flakes in the high peaks this week. More likely than a big event. Deeply skeptical of leftovers here, but I think we have a shot at some Gulf development. Might close out the season of futility.

12Z UKMET is 4th full run in a row with a Gulf TC and again maxes out in strong TS range but well to the W of the 0Z’s FL Pan with it coming into EC LA: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29 0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30 1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40 0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44 1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55 0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30 1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25

Good morning from Detroit

Whatever forms in the Gulf it looks like we get the leftovers next weekend

Congrats NNE on the 12z GFS

0.6” or so to start the month

October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct

Periods of light rain moving through.

You could be right.Hardeman Co in TN had had a EF4 right before Christmas 2015, which tracked from MS,so regardless you can never say never.But in still 2015 was a well pronounced Central based NINO compared to this year,most of the severe should be further towards the Gulf states and not into our region this winter

1.25 Largest 24 rainfall event since the late spring...

Our most recent severe cold/snow Winters in October If you take out 2014 because that Winter had a record breaking ridge over the West, the October composite is much colder.

I mean…you could I was born in Fairbanks.

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

Yeah it was kind of eerie after spending some time outside Fri afternoon and they were singing almost nonstop. Then we go from late summer to early fall just like that. Hopefully we can get at least a week or so of “Indian summer” before the door fully slams shut by mowvember.

Likely wait out a frost delay.