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Yep and he also followed up with this tweet…the +AO (aka “NAM”) and +NAO with SE ridge risk:

If 12z tics one more time like that it will get interesting, but I’m not expecting that.

Someone always has to make it political. Sad. Especially on a weather forum.

Great, Webb posted this yesterday on X:

Don’t do it

What a start for Syracuse. Closing in on 80” for only the 4th time ever before Jan 1. Over 100 years of records.

How much have you received since snow began? I would like to take your total, subtract a bit so I can keep my tally going.

Thanks, snowman. One of the favored analogs has been 2021-2. This was the GEFS PNA forecast 4 years ago today through Jan 14, 2022: it showed the PNA turning positive, which it did but the mean wasn’t positive enough for midmonth: To compare, here’s today’s GEFS PNA forecast, which is clearly going in the right direction at the end but still isn’t then yet a +PNA. Note the wide spread of the members, however:

Believe it or not, despite a roller coastet month tempwise, December 2025 is still on track for a top 10 warmest at DFW, possibly even tying or beating 2023 for #6... For perspective, this will be the 3rd consecutive top 10 warmest December for DFW (2024 was #3) and 4th top 10 warmesr December this decade (for those who might have forgot, 2021 sits at a extremely comfortable #1).

I see. yeah ... I also agree. We're "suffering" ( some don't, ooh rah heros ) early sunsets and cold hands, it would be at least more tolerable if there were interesting things to study coming through. The see-thru 2 inches of cobwebs isn't really providing that education. Ha. I for one am looking forward to this very significant change that's coming. For one, it's the first course work being that it is a new paradigm, and it satisfies some lust for discovery/something new ... And I do like the odds better in this new paradigm then that Pac N. -WPO hybrid dildo thing. That was driving the midriff ridge over the continent by extention/transitive wave mechanics ...so seeing that motherfucker leave means we clear the air and make way for ...at least different probabilities. I don't care if they are warm or cold, btw. But I am empathic to the notion that most in here do care. In this case, yeah ... your bold. I'm like people, cheer up!

You can see it on this forum too. I have no problem calling out dogshit looks. If it sucks it sucks. No sense in sugar coating it.

Therein lies the risk if we do in fact see a +TNH pattern take over just after mid-January….the AO (NAM). Here’s Eric’s new tweet on it, but +TNH favors the AO going positive along with the NAO going positive. And you already mentioned the SE ridge risk with it

Or that storm could be a 975 low over Buffalo. Maybe that’s what they meant by wild times.

There’s a percentage of the population that wants to read what they want to see whether it proves right or wrong. So someone like Marky Markgarbage will always have a following of likes and clicks.

mm the public won't see it that way. See, we have a unique perspective - in the sense that we represent the .00034% of the total mass intelligentsia in the matter, and will know what "really" transpired. Those "idiots" as you say, are actually both on stage, and in audience. That's a different dynamic than you and I. That's why Joe B. still had a following ... maybe not as big - but probably just because popularity tends to have a shelf-life for other reasons ...whatever. So, what is invariably going to happen is the new -EPO paradigm will come in, and then the hemisphere chooses the faster cold relay route, and this will genesize a storm for other reasons sometimes around the 10-11-12 period that is grandiose enough to fuel the limited objective opinion engine of their constituencies and now they're geniuses. While we are interminably annoyed - This is a bit of broader perspective with some tongue-n-cheek cynicism intended. What Brian just said below is also a part of all this ...

January 2026 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 +0.7 +1.9 -0.3 +2.1 +0.2

Most are just model junkies…look at em and take em at face value. Zero meteorological skill involved. Horrid. The guy, Michael Clarke from BAM Weather, gave a great explanation yesterday about this. Ray and and I posted about it overnight. He’s quite good.

I mean I don’t disagree. I wasn’t trying to imply that those maps looked cold for us. We may risk dumping cold well to our west and if we don’t have the cold in QB for your +PP we’ll flirt with warm sectoring the northeast. But I’m losing interest in these frequent light fluffernutters and persistent low end cold.

Live by the models, die by them. You know this. Long range past 5-7 days is a crap shoot.

Like I said. It’s so satisfying to see these bums fall flat on their face. All the talk of storms and wild times….go eat shit. Love it.

Your fault for buying those twitter idiots

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

Natural gas, which usually drops when the high pop. centers of the NE US and Midwest look warmer in the 2 week forecast, is down >4%. The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out. Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off. The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw: Yesterday: Today: