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You are just completely ignoring the NWS forecast?

Watching the virga/radar hole that now occupies an apparently permanent snow-repelling rip in the space-time continuum in the skies above Baltimore and feeling sorry for myself. One day, perhaps far into the future, my children's children's children will be mind-typing "Ooh, Baltimore's really getting the goods early this storm!" into their virtual ether communicators, and the story of their ancestors and The Great Balmer Snow Drought will be a fuzzy and distant memory that has faded into legend. I envy those young snow lovers. I shall picture them laughing and frolicking and bounding through the drifts into their anti-grav plasma boots as I sob quietly into my pillow tonight until the unbearable pain finally, mercifully whisks me away to a blissful nothingness.

I mean the trends from Southern VA aren't encouraging.

Agree. Rather have this than freezing rain. Snow accumulated instantly so that part is good. Just small flakes

FWIW the RRFS looks pretty accurate with the sleet line looking at correlation coefficients vs its model output at 00z for 11pm. DC 5.4 and Baltimore 7.8 internal ratios. That's lower for DC from 18z but higher for Baltimore, and there are actually some higher totals south of DC so I think it just got unlucky with banding on this particular run. Was pretty much better everywhere else except that dry slot. No idea how it plays out but it's way too early to say the changeover is gonna swallow us by 8am or anything.

The freezing rain is looking horrible for here tomorrow.

Nemo? my plan is to drive home around 2pm Monday. Thinking the roads should be relatively driveable by then, question mark

Probably not THAT bad, but it is so damn COLD that every drop of supercooled rain WILL FREEZE, on contact.

I rather have this as a base then freezing rain .. I’m personally not going to remove it now because of that

you're going to get a foot. that's my forecast for Leesburg

You’re right. First flakes will be at 1am here

GFS looks like shit for the next event so far

The reach of this storm is breathtaking and probably is up there with past HECS. This shall rank high on the KU scale.

Hvy sleet fuquay varina...already covering everything. Grill is solid ice. 21.6 degrees

Have been just baaarely hanging onto the extreme northwest edge of this thing. Maybe two tenths or so now. If we can manage to stay within the fringe for another 6 hours or so we may be able to muster a half inch, which would be a pretty big win considering a complete whiff was definitely possible.

You forget about the bubble?

pants nowhere to be found

Damn donut hole!

Off to get some sleep. Interesting day of weather coming up for tomorrow. Hourly obs, radar and mPING on the agenda. Good luck to all. Hope everyone gets what the want and what they expecting.

From Sale Creek, TN E C .

I think 3” is the goal post here

3z HRRR is a 14z flip for DCA. seems reasonable.

I know it, I was watching how cold it was getting around 5k FT and thought maybe it would be delayed. Makes me worry about freezing rain.